Excalibur [Endgame]

[Something_Smart]

oh dear lord

please be mindful of my activity constraints, I will try to contribute as much as I can

Only read the first 6 pages because my wifi crapped out and I don't have a lot of data, but I'm okay with LLD claiming the sword

[Something_Smart]

On page 11.
Confirming the highest number of town is not the best goal. If an obvious townie who was going to die at night turns out to be confirmed, it does nothing for us.

What we want is one of two things: confirmed townies that scum can't kill before it matters (either BP or confirmed

in LYLO

), or being able to choose who gets confirmed (because we can pick scummy players to get either guiltied or confirmed).

I'm going to try not to directly get involved in the setup discussion. But I want everyone to either accept this principle or tell me why you think it's wrong.

[Something_Smart]

I think you and DVa are both equally sincere, so I’m townreading both of you for it.

There's a non-negligible possibility that Varsoon is sitting in the scum PT going "I wonder if I can convince them to follow this stupid-ass plan."

That is consistent with what I know of him.

[Something_Smart]

Confirming the highest number of town is not the best goal. If an obvious townie who was going to die at night turns out to be confirmed, it does nothing for us.

What we want is one of two things: confirmed townies that scum can't kill before it matters (either BP or confirmed in LYLO), or being able to choose who gets confirmed (because we can pick scummy players to get either guiltied or confirmed).

Just for clarification; an example of the former being random claim on the sword and holding on to it, and only claiming before being pushed to gladiate, and an example of the latter being a scumread claiming and attempting to shoot?

Yes, that's pretty accurate.

Something_Smart over there in his scum PT like "Shit shit we gotta shut down Varsoon's plan because it's the fucking ideal one that gives town the best chances of winning. Let me propose some shit where our ICs lose all effectiveness entirely"

Oh wow surprise that line of posturing is garbage and does nothing to advance reads.
HURT: Something_Smart
Fucking moronic.
Delete your account and make a new one called Something_Scummy or Something_Stupid if you're gonna keep that shit up.

I did not propose a plan. I don't ever intend to do so, and I made that intention clear.

I did not even try to refute yours directly. I stated a principle that I believe. I asked something very simple:

agree with my principle or explain why you disagree.

You didn't do that. It's evident you barely read my post.

I like civil discussions. Maybe we can have one. But if we can't... it won't be me that's the reason why.

[Something_Smart]

No, they won't be town leader, they'll be innocent child

It's not the same thing

We don't need a town leader and someone being unclaimed sword-holder will not make them 'town leader' when the reason we let them claim in the first place was them being scummy

While it's true that it's not the same thing, I don't think there's a negative correlation between how scummy someone is and how good their reads are. If anything, there's a positive one because (a) scum will generally try to discredit and push people with good reads and (b) they can form reads off of how people treat them, knowing that they themself are town.

There's a type of player, good at both town and scum, that is both hard to read and very strong to have as a town leader. If we do have someone hold onto the sword for the whole game, it should be someone like this.

[Something_Smart]

@SomethingSmart: You think that people claiming in LYLO makes them confirmed.
I refuted that already.
We can have civil discussions but you framing it like I'm the problem here when it's clear you haven't read my posts is troubling.

I never said anything about claiming in LYLO. I only said confirmed in LYLO. Whether or not it's feasible to have someone confirmed in LYLO, it's preferable to having them confirmed beforehand.

Although it is absolutely possible to have someone claim in LYLO and be confirmed. If, on day 1, everyone did as Firebringer did and hypoclaimed who Arthur is, then by the time LYLO rolls around, there could be only a few people who still could be Merlin. If scum aren't in that group, or if the person they claimed is Arthur ends up being Merlin, they can't counterclaim Merlin, and Merlin and Arthur get confirmed. I'm not saying that's a good strategy, but it can lead to multiple people being confirmed in LYLO. However, I do think it's objectively better than your strategy.

So... you still haven't done what I asked. Do you agree with the following:

Confirming the highest number of town is not the best goal. If an obvious townie who was going to die at night turns out to be confirmed, it does nothing for us.

What we want is one of two things: confirmed townies that scum can't kill before it matters (either BP or confirmed

in LYLO

), or being able to choose who gets confirmed (because we can pick scummy players to get either guiltied or confirmed).

or not? And if not, why do you disagree?

[Something_Smart]

Town intentionally killing itself so that town can eventually get a Vig that'll more often than not just kill more town is an awful idea.

Also, do you seriously believe that Arthur getting the sword is bad for town? It's mechanically equivalent to double day, at the very least if Arthur has poor reads he can be leashed and it still provides a massive boost to town EV...

[Something_Smart]

How about we leave the realm of theoretical and you tell us who you'd like to hold the sword, Something_Smart?

If we follow that plan at least, which it doesn't seem like you are attached to

Well that's why I mentioned supporting LLD getting it before. She was the only one who came to mind.

Most of my experience with these players is very out of date, though, so that's why I left the description open for anyone who has a good idea of who fits it. Maybe you although I think some people here can read you pretty well.

he can be leashed

How? He's not a sk, he's confirmed town, what are we going to do to him, lynch him?

The pressure of getting 99% of the blame for a loss would probably work pretty well on most people, especially if their reads have already proven bad.

[Something_Smart]

I'm claiming the sword every time I can and I'm going to try to vig shit.

[Something_Smart]

If I had my way right now:
Smart/LLD would be dueling
winner goes for the sword along with Dva or UT.

Reads aside, why do you think it'd be good for the gamestate for someone so loud to duel someone so quiet?

[Something_Smart]

First of all Varsoon it seems like we're mostly on the same page now. One of the things I was getting at was that, regardless of how good your plan is, the hypoclaim (where everyone says who Arthur is) is objectively better than yours. It seems like that's been established.

No, I disagree entirely.
I disagree because what I want (and what we should want) is a plan that works REGARDLESS of town cohesion, and that works AS SOON AS POSSIBLE and that GIVES US THE MOST GUARANTEED LEVERAGE OVER SCUM;
If we have 2 confirmed in Merlin-Arthur on D2 with a hidden third BP player that can later confirm, that's the best possible situation for us.
Our lynch pool shrinks from 15 to 12 on D2 which is HUGELY SIGNIFICANT.
People have been trying to shade the sword-claimant thing but so long as our Sword-Holder just claims THE DAY BEFORE LYLO, counterclaims don't beat it and we are guaranteed a BP IC going into LYLO.
This is literally the only way we are guaranteed any ICs going into LYLO as every other plan hinges too much on keeping Merlin/Arthur hidden until at least D3 or later without realizing one of two things:
1. LYLO is D5 in this setup.
2. Every Night that Merlin/Arthur go unclaimed is another huge risk we take that scum kills Merlin and we lose two ICs.

So, to REITERATE because I know some people might just be dense and not get it:
1. The problem with 'wait to confirm Merlin' plans is that they are very high risk for relatively low reward (to get an single extra IC into LYLO, Merlin would have to claim D4 at the earliest and go un-gladiated and un-killed until then)
2. The problem with 'use the sword to cop players' is that it only works if both town and scum agree to play around it AND if we fail to catch scum with it the first time, it literally won't work because the sword won't become unclaimed unless the townie that claimed it suicides.

I understand where you're coming from in most of this, but I object to some of it. First of all, a plan that requires some town cohesion is not necessarily worse than a plan that requires no town cohesion; in fact it's likely to be better because we can assume that town can put its cohesion to good use. So really the best thing to do is to accurately predict how much cohesion town is going to have, and if you can do that then please do.

Assuming the sword is claimed N1, our lynchpool always shrinks from 15 to 12. As long as we give both potential duelers a chance to claim before the duel, neither the sword holder, Merlin, nor Arthur will be in danger of being lynched, no matter WHAT plan we adopt.

And yes, I realize it's hard to keep Merlin and Arthur hidden... but it's even harder to do so if Merlin claims. Every strategy has some way to fail; just because you've made a strategy that fails equally well no matter how good scum are at PR hunting doesn't mean you've made the best strategy.

And finally, just because townies have to suicide in order to use the sword as a cop doesn't mean you should automatically discount it. That strategy DEFINITELY has the best chance of Arthur getting the sword, and maybe you should trust literally everyone else when they say that's a huge plus for town.

[Something_Smart]

And finally, just because townies have to suicide in order to use the sword as a cop doesn't mean you should automatically discount it. That strategy DEFINITELY has the best chance of Arthur getting the sword, and maybe you should trust literally everyone else when they say that's a huge plus for town.

Something_Smart, I thought that the whole Arthur thing was irrelevant - the point of the sword mechanics was to use it as a copping mechanism by deciding who takes the sword. Said copping mechanism doesn't seem so appealing giving it's virtually suicide for the holder.

Can you show how Arthur getting it is a huge plus for town, given the costs of suicides in the process?

I mean, if every non-Arthur who gets the sword and suicides is someone we would have lynched anyway, it gives us the opportunity to lynch someone else instead, as Dunn is saying.

Besides, whenever we have to suicide one person who wouldn't be lynched (and this isn't likely to happen more than once if it happens at all), we lose half a day. But every time Arthur shoots, we gain half a day.

[Something_Smart]

I literally just agreed about hypoclaim on this page.

Yeah, that's what I meant by "we're on the same page".

Also, no, lynch pool doesn't become 12 if people don't claim because people won't know who is who and won't know that UNLESS THEY CLAIM. Worst case scenario is that Arthur gladiates Merlin or the Sword Holder. You're working on the assumption that the lynch pool is 12 without the claims because, once gladiated/run up, the player can claim, but then we haven't looked in that pool, we've just run up or, worse, gladiated a player we can't lynch due to IC, forcing our lynch onto the other option, which is awful because then there's no criticism that can really be levied for mislynches and no associatives based solely on voting.

Do you agree that everyone should be announcing intent to gladiate before they do so? I bet if we tell people to, they will, especially since if someone yolo gladiates Merlin or Arthur it never ends well for them.

Screw it.
You want townies to kill themselves impaling on Excalibur every night, go with that plan.
When we lose the game thanks to that rubbish plan, I'll be in post laughing at you.

I said I was done talking about this garbage on Page 10. Why am I still getting dragged into this?

Look at you Mr. Mind Reader over there, telling me what I want and don't want when all I'm doing is keeping an open mind (and I still haven't stated what I think is the best plan because I don't know yet).

Also, Dunn, just because I think your ideas are awful doesn't mean I'm going to hurt tag you over them. Sometimes you can be wrong and town, which is something I have to reconcile, because it either applies to me or like eight other people in this game right now.

So why'd you hurt tag me? The previous paragraph seems to imply you think I'm town anyway.

[Something_Smart]

@Something_Smart:

Spoiler: Mechanics talk, again

For one, I feel that *for* the suicides to work as copping mechanisms, you need 100% town cohesion/control on who takes the sword. Even *one* town player not following this makes the sword claimed, which destroys its copping ability. I think it's apparent already that a few town are going to try and claim it no matter what, so unless we have a very convincing plan in the first place with this, we won't have town cohesion anyway.

We also have to remember that this kind of plan requires commitment over the days, in that people shouldn't go "Oh I'm better than the rest, I'll save the BP for myself" anyway. The extreme amounts of cohesion and commitment required makes this hard. Although if we can find a mathematically proven strategy to increase town win chances assuming they can follow a plan, it's worthwhile to try and coax town to co-operate.

That apart, the best strategy right now, to me is:
1. Propose and achieve consensus on following a gladiate policy of top hurt players claiming role, announcing intent to gladiate someone, and the other claiming role. Policy vote if not followed. (Achievable)
2. Everyone (except Merlin) tries to get the sword, so the scum doesn't hone in on who could have it. (Doesn't even matter if people don't try)
3. Merlin remains quiet unless pushed to gladiate or about to be gladiated by someone, or Arthur is. Likewise for Swordholder.
4. Hypoclaim on D2 on Arthur. (Achievable)
5. Merlin and Swordholder out on the day before LyLo. If CC'd, lynch to check. If not, great.

One question is: Is an Arthur hypoclaim more useful in D1, considering the 1/13 chance Merlin gets NK'd? (3/13 if he's pushed to a gladiate and outs himself)

What do you think of this?

You are right; if anyone takes the sword with intent to be BP, it disrupts the "use sword as a cop" plan. I think the only person who expressed interest in doing so is LLD, and she seems like she'd probably agree not to do it if it interfered with the plan.

I think this plan can be improved by letting everyone pick whether they go for the sword; probably not everyone will want to be BP and confirmable, if they're either likely to be townread or unlikely to be killed.

I also think it might be improved by introducing some more uncertainty into Merlin/Arthur. Obviously we need to strike a balance between making sure town knows what to do if Merlin dies versus not letting scum figure out who Merlin is too easily. I'm considering if it might be better to hypoclaim two potential Arthurs. That I think would fit better with a plan of using the sword as a cop, but it's still a possibility.

[Something_Smart]

-S_S can you talk about people besides varsoon?

Anyone in particular? I don't trust myself to read half these people.

UT feels like he did as scum.
Auro feels genuine.
Whatever I say about you is guaranteed to be wrong so I just won't
I've seen Gamma play stronger than this as town.
Dunn feels towny but that counts for very little. I remember identifying with something he said, but it might just have been his "bad post" response to UT's "bless this post" gif, and although I felt the same way that's very easily faked.
I doubt I have the requisite experience to read LLD this early.
I know I don't have the requisite experience to read Fire or Maria.
I don't know if Elsa is even readable, but I'd bet that his playstyle's changed a lot since I last played with him. (I know he plays differently based on what account he uses.)

[Something_Smart]

@Something_Smart:

Spoiler:

I think it's more than just LLD who would want to claim the sword, and this also depends on the claimants agreeing to vig. Would LLD agree to that too?

Announcing intents to claim could be bad, actually, if more than one wants to, since this gives scum a much narrower NK pool. I think I'd want Swordholder to remain hidden and block potential NKs.

That said, any reads you have on people at the moment?

I wouldn't advocate for announcing intent to claim, but definitely anyone who doesn't want the sword shouldn't claim it.

As for reads, I haven't been able to keep up with the game because I had a 7 hour drive on Sunday and I went to a concert yesterday, and I'm not as good at forming reads through rereading and ISOing. I definitely don't want to do that as a first impression because first impressions already hold undue weight. You can see what I said in the previous post but unfortunately you won't be able to get much out of me yet.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not really understanding how pitting two people who are both global scumreads against each other benefits us at all.
Like if they're just both town, doesn't that just heavy implicate the other when the one flips town?

Maybe, but if they're both global scumreads then they were going to be suspected anyway.
What we want is to have scum up on the stand so we can see how they and the other players react.

[Something_Smart]

Also I still think most people going for sword is important because then it actually gives us a chance arthur gets sword instead of ends up being the mook who doesn't and, on top of that, keeps scum from being able to plan their kill around swordclaimers.

The odds that Arthur gets the sword are 1/12, no matter how many people go for the sword. The only way we can increase that is to give the players some say in choosing who gets the sword, which would allow Merlin to push for Arthur to get it without being obvious.

[Something_Smart]

@S_S: That'd be the case if Arthur knew he was Arthur, but he doesn't, so if Arthur doesn't attempt to get the sword, his chances are always 0. Since no one knows if they are arthur or not other than Merlin, everyone should try to get sword, right?

Let's say that N townies (out of 12) attempt to get the sword. The odds that Arthur is one of them are N/12. (There are 12 possibilities for Arthur and N of them are going for the sword.)

Then, the odds that Arthur, assuming he does attempt it, is the one who actually gets it are 1/N. (There are N people going for the sword and 1 of them can get it.)

The odds that Arthur ends up with the sword, assuming at least one person attempts it, are (N/12) * (1/N) = 1/12 regardless of what N is.

Another way to look at it: exactly one townie is gonna end up with the sword. No matter how they ended up with it, there are 12 identical townies and one of them is Arthur, so if you pick a random townie to be Arthur the odds that you picked the one with the sword are 1/12.

[Something_Smart]

something_smart what do u think of my scumread on u

It's been a while since you and I have played, my playstyle's changed, and I haven't engaged much yet, so it's acceptable (and understandable) for now.

[Something_Smart]

something_smart thank you for deposting some reads but those were pretty waffly. Can you go in and hurt tag some people?

I mean, I could, but the accuracy would probably be no better than rolling a die. I'd probably end up basing it on who'd be good to be gladiated (for instance, a good policy lynch up against someone who reveals their alignment transparently when forced to fight for their life-- but even that I'd have to do research on).

[Something_Smart]

Cakez, hopefully I will be able to interact with people in real-time more. The game started at a bad time for me.

Although I don't really consider it necessary to have a plan like that. If I don't end up seeing anything on someone that I think I can get a reliable read on, then I'm right to just not attempt to read them and instead sort them through other means (interactions, mechanics, sheeping).

[Something_Smart]

Would you agree that it's useful for the rest of town if you take stances on existing content and exchanges, if not necessarily overall reads on players?

My stances aren't the best way to read me. And when I try to force opinions they look... forced. Shocker.

Assuming I'm playing naturally, I will be easier to read if I stick my neck out and commit to stuff, and it's likely the stuff will be > rand, so yes. Technically, it would be better.

But no matter what, it's best for me to do what I feel like I should do. (As it really should be for anyone, barring those who feel like lurking their asses off of screaming until their faces turn blue.)

[Something_Smart]

I'm going for the sword no matter what.

Do you still think Arthur's more likely to get the sword if more people go for it?

[Something_Smart]

Varsoon, your math is wrong. You are correct that if Arthur doesn't go for the sword, then his chances of getting it are zero. But you can't stop there and say "therefore everyone should go for it". Because the probability that Arthur gets the sword-- assuming he DOES go for it-- is not constant.

Let's look at some examples. Suppose only one person goes for the sword. Well, if that person's not Arthur, then Arthur has no chance of getting the sword. But if it is Arthur, then he's guaranteed to get it-- and the odds of that one person being Arthur are 1/12. So the overall odds of Arthur getting it are 1/12.

Now, let's suppose that 6 people go for it. Once again, if Arthur is not among them, then he can't get it. This time, the odds that Arthur goes for the sword are 6/12, or 1/2. But if you compare this case to the last one, you'll see that although he's more likely to GO for it, he's less likely to get it if he does go for it. Even if he goes for it, he only has a 1/6 chance of getting it. Rules of probability say that the total probability is 1/2 * 1/6 = again 1/12.

If everyone goes for it, it gets simpler. It's just a 12-way die roll and we hope Arthur wins it. The probability of that is 1/12.

Now. To address your point, let's look at it this way: let's label the players from A to L, and let's look at the chances of Arthur getting the sword if each person is Arthur. In the first scenario, only A goes for it. The probabilities that Arthur gets the sword are:
1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
(1 if A is Arthur, 0 if B is Arthur, 0 if C is Arthur, etc.)
If A-F all go for it:
1/6, 1/6, 1/6, 1/6, 1/6, 1/6, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
If everyone goes for it:
1/12, 1/12, 1/12, 1/12, 1/12, 1/12, 1/12, 1/12, 1/12, 1/12, 1/12, 1/12

You looked at these and went "the last one has the fewest zeros, therefore it's best!" but that doesn't look at the whole picture. I looked at them and said "the AVERAGE is the same for each one, therefore it doesn't matter." Probability's about average. If you go all in on a straight flush against seven opponents, then your odds of winning are zero if any of your seven opponents are holding a royal flush... but that doesn't mean it's a worse idea than going all in on a pair against only one opponent.

Furthermore, if less people go for the sword, there's also a higher probability of scum killing the sword-claimer.

This is true if people indicate whether they will go for the sword. Otherwise, there's exactly one sword claimer no matter how many people try.
But, if we assume that scum will only kill someone who wants the sword, then we can say that either someone who doesn't want it will get it, or scum will have the same good odds of killing whoever gets it.

[Something_Smart]

Something_Smart, I honestly think debating over *whether* it's 1/12 or not is not fruitful.

Where are you trying to go with that?

I don't want Varsoon to screw up a plan out of ignorance. Therefore, if he doesn't change his mind about going for the sword no matter what, and we decide that it's best to limit who takes the sword, I'll probably push to policy lynch him.

And Varsoon, you seem to have conceded that the probability of Arthur getting the sword is 1/12 no matter what without understanding what that really means. It's just as bad for Arthur to not get the sword because too many non-Arthurs claimed it as it is for Arthur to not get the sword because he didn't claim it. The end result is exactly the same, no matter what, and you're saying that the latter case is worse than the former case just because it feels worse, although math says they're exactly the same.

[Something_Smart]

Can you go more into your reads, S_S? How is this genuine Auro?

He's clearly made an effort to contribute to mechanics discussion and figure out what the hell we're supposed to do with this setup. It's not that it's impossible to fake that kind of involvement, but it would be a risky play to push yourself into the spotlight on a topic you know people are going to disagree with you on, and for which you'd have several very easy excuses for staying out of.

What feels scum about UT?

I've played with him twice, once as each alignment, both a long time ago. I recall him being extremely flippant and feigning ignorance and disinterest as an excuse to do whatever he wanted as scum, and I don't remember him doing that as town. I'm sure he does act flippant and disinterested as town, but as his scumbuddy I do remember seeing the scum motivation in what he was doing that game.

Why do you need experience to properly read 1/3 of the slots in the game?

Because many of these players are known for having strong scum games, high self-awareness, superficial similarity between town and scumgames, and/or great skill at manipulating emotion. These are all factors that contribute to players unfamiliar with them having a low success rate of reading them. And while I am obviously not unfamiliar with them (given that I know this stuff), it's been a long time since I've played with most of them and even if I did think I could read them a year ago, I don't still trust myself to do so. (And this of course changes from player to player, for instance Maria I have self-admittedly been pretty much unable to read with any accuracy, and I have pretty consistently read Cakez wrong, even when taking into account the fact that I always read him wrong.)

[Something_Smart]

If it's looked at solely as a probability question, yes, the probability is 1 out of 12 no matter what.
However, you're neglecting how the scum kill affects that probability.

@MOD: You said that the kill resolves before the sword is claimed, however, does the kill resolve AFTER or BEFORE it is decided which claimer will get it?
IE:
Is it SCENARIO 1: Player A and B go to claim Sword. Sword will random roll to player A. Scum kill player A. Sword is unclaimed in the morning because A died before they could claim it
or
SCENARIO 2: Player A and B go to claim Sword. Scum kill player A. Claim is rolled post-kill and goes to player B since they are the only one going for Sword?

From my understanding, it's scenario 1. And there are two possibilities: Either we let each person choose whether to claim it, in which case scum only have an increased chance of hitting the sword claimer if people say what they're going to do; or we pick one person and tell them to claim the sword, in which case scum have done us a favor in killing the claimer because they eliminated a scummy player and we can immediately use the same tactic the next day-- if they keep that up it's effectively nightless, so they can't.

[Something_Smart]

Ohoho, now who's talking probability when you're advocating for a smaller-than-12-claimant pool which literally increases scum's odds of killing the claimant given they can scope the game for people who seem as though they intend to claim.

There's two sides to this coin though. People aren't going to claim if they think there's a good chance they'll die night 1, as they're probably towny enough to not need to be confirmed. So if scum kill someone they think likely to claim, they're going to be making a suboptimal kill, which isn't that bad for town if they're right (since the sword can just be claimed the next night-- if we're going to have someone keep it, all that really matters is that they get it before LYLO so they can't be CC'd), and is good for town if they're wrong. I'm not saying it's great, but it's probably better than someone

Picking a player to claim the sword is an awful idea. If scum are actually threatened by town offing its weaker players and the game being 'nightless', they just let the claim go through and then the whole claiming thing is off the table unless that town player literally kills themselves and even then we won't be able to retry until the following night.

If they let the claim go through, then we get to handpick who we want our bulletproof IC to be, and we have a chance for Merlin to influence the decision.

[Something_Smart]

I think the experience thing is a cop-out from taking hard stances on players. So what if you're wrong? At least you dedicated a push towards something you believed in, which provides people with a grounds for figuring out the game.

Being wrong helps people get a BETTER read on me?

I've almost never seen that.

I've been mislynched many times for being wrong.

Once I stopped being more confident than I had any right to be, my rate of being mislynched plummeted.

[Something_Smart]

Also, you can't do both 'We get to handpick who we want our BP IC to be' and 'We get to use the sword to scumhunt'. Doesn't work that way.

Why not? There's a lot of people in this game. Surely there's at least one who is both hard to read and strong as confirmed town. I'm pretty sure LLD would qualify.

[Something_Smart]

Curious if anyone else had a negative reaction to 371?

I don't see anything bad about it.

[Something_Smart]

Don't you agree that we'd be better off if certain players got Excalibur than if other players did?

[Something_Smart]

Smart, I'm also gonna have to call you out for not even commenting on the recent events of my pre-determined challenge. I know we're having 2 different discussions right now, but you HAVE to realise it's bad your not commenting on me or Lady right now.

I considered commenting, but then realized I had nothing useful to say. Do you want to hear anything in particular?

No.
Especially because the second that it becomes 'certain players', scum can kill those certain players and rob us of the mechanic.

No they can't...? Unless they manage to guess which player gets the sword every single night. There's no reason why it needs to be successfully assigned N1, and every one of those 'certain players' scum kills is a kill that they were restricted on, and didn't get to kill whoever they wanted. I'm not saying it's foolproof, but there's more merit to it than you seem to realize.

There are definitely arguments why it isn't a good idea, but there are also arguments why it is a good idea. So saying that there's "literally no reason" is just flat-out wrong.

[Something_Smart]

I don't know how I'm going to vote. It will probably come down to which I am more afraid of: scum-LLD or town-you.

I don't see why you should expect me to determine this before the challenge.

[Something_Smart]

Your not looking into Lady, and at this point, I feel like that's intentional distancing.

LLD is well-known for her strong emotional play as town and as scum.

I'm a logic-driven player who doesn't do well with emotions. I strongly doubt that I'd be able to get a better than random read on LLD, especially since I haven't interacted with her at all.

[Something_Smart]

I don't know how I'm going to vote. It will probably come down to which I am more afraid of: scum-LLD or town-you.

I don't see why you should expect me to determine this before the challenge.

Considering you're getting told it's outright happening in a few hours why not.

Well, the day's not over yet. There will be more information available after the challenge is issued.

Right now I don't have particularly strong feelings on either, so if I were forced to decide I'd probably vote Jay just because I don't think his towngame is particularly good.

[Something_Smart]

And I don't think LLD's even reacted to Jay saying he'll challenge her.

[Something_Smart]

Regardless of what You think of my Town game, Smart, I'm always trying to get better. So please take this time seriously now.

I mean, yeah, sure, but you're kinda doing it to yourself by challenging one of the loudest players in the game.

LAMIST is what came to my mind.

What part of it strikes you as LAMIST?

[Something_Smart]

Confirming any player to claim the sword in advance, is basically a death warrant if they’re town.

Not necessarily...!

If we use it on scummy players, then at some point scum is going to have to stop killing them or the scum kill just becomes an extra lynch. Of course that does give scum a measure of agency in who does end up with the sword (a valid argument against this plan that Varsoon neglected to point out), but it also gives town more agency than letting it be a free-for-all.

... Loudest? She has 34 posts my dude, and some of those are less then a paragraph. More then 2\3s of the game is louder. Auro has 250 posts. Your logical, so I assume you can count.

How is she "loud"?

I take it you haven't played with her before.

In that case... maybe you should postpone your challenge and go read a game or two of hers.

[Something_Smart]

I don't know how I'm going to vote.

It will probably come down to which I am more afraid of: scum-LLD or town-you.

I don't see why you should expect me to determine this before the challenge.

What?

The one time I played with town-Jay he furthered the scum win condition better than most of the scum players. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt but I don't know if I'd go so far as to hang someone like LLD just to continue giving him the benefit of the doubt. The only reason I would is if I were even more afraid that scum-LLD would run away with the game.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not gonna rely on ever changing meta, I'm relying on the information she has given this game. Focus on this game.

That's gonna be a big fat nope. Most people, especially experienced ones, just don't follow universal tells. If you try to use tells "just from this game" on them, you'll fail to get anything useful the vast majority of the time.

I mean... if you want to ignore her reputation and challenge her anyway, I won't stop you... but you're likely to learn exactly what I mean by "loud".

[Something_Smart]

I didn’t buy her reasoning and as I already said, it was like her 5th post. I think this sort of play is more likely to come from scum than town.

You don't believe it makes sense, or you don't believe that she genuinely believed it?

Why do you think it's more likely to come from scum?

[Something_Smart]

If you try to use tells "just from this game" on them, you'll fail to get anything useful the vast majority of the time.

not sure this is scummy but this is pretty weak reasoning regardless of alignment SS

What's wrong with it?

[Something_Smart]

Why say you had no opinion in all of this but then bring up one of my first ever games on this site when I was still learning as evidence against me?

Maybe it's unwarranted, but that's the experience I have with your towngame. And actually, I said before it was my only experience with your towngame, but I did double-check and you were in Assemble's game too; it was around the same time and I was frustrated with how you played there as well. So my baseline expectation for your towngame is weak.

I'm not using it as "evidence"; I'm not trying to convince anyone else... you literally asked what I was thinking, and so I told you what I was thinking.

Why are you trying to delay my challenge even further?

Because I thought you knew challenging LLD was suicide, but it doesn't seem like you do, so I at least wanted you to have fair warning.

Why are you defending a person who isnt trying?

Once again, "defending" is inaccurate because I'm not trying to convince anyone else. Effort usually isn't indicative of alignment; I'm not about to hold her low activity against her. (And it's not even that low, she almost certainly has more non-setup-related content than me.)

[Something_Smart]

I am saying not to disregard meta, that is correct.

[Something_Smart]

I don't know how I'm going to vote. It will probably come down to which I am more afraid of: scum-LLD or town-you.

I don't see why you should expect me to determine this before the challenge.

The fuck?

What part of this confuses you?

[Something_Smart]

You answered it already
That’s still kinda nasty, town!Elsa can be a decent boon to town imo

I mean, I definitely grant that my experience with him is not recent and is from when he was very new. So it is useful to hear judgements on how he's been playing more recently.

[Something_Smart]

I can't believe you've done this.

First thing I want to hear is why LLD wasn't okay with going against Jay.

[Something_Smart]

AWWWW I GET THE PLAN. I'm flattered LLD is scared of town me so she wants people to think we're buddies when she dies to get rid of town me. Aw lld I'm honored ty for choosing me this is really cute

If that's the case, would you be okay with taking the sword tonight?

[Something_Smart]

It's just a bad post in general, not just because it's wrong, but because I can't figure out HOW he could arrive at that conclusion looking at only posts in this thread

Man, it's almost as if I have experience with LLD outside this game.

[Something_Smart]

Hi Varsoon
A large number of arguments does not equal a strong argument. 1101 is true but doesn't matter because claim strategies are ALWAYS off the table after someone claims unless they suicide. 920 was disproved by math. 774 and 216 are true but the only people who've expressed willingness to mess it up are you and maybe UT.

Look at it this way-- if LLD is scum and Maria town, LLD clearly challenged Maria to get rid of her. If Maria claims the sword, they'll get the exact opposite of that, unless they kill her-- and then they've killed someone they were trying to mislynch and the sword is still unclaimed. Either scum give us a free mislynch, or a strong town player that scum wanted to eliminate gets the sword, or Maria is also scum and is outed and the sword remains unclaimed.

If they kill Maria or if she's scum, then we can do a free-for-all the next night. And if LLD is town, we can probably just do a free-for-all and then hang Maria.

This sounds like a win-win to me. What do you think?

[Something_Smart]

I really, really hate that you're trying to justify a ton of your reads by "I have experience with this player" or "I don't have experience with that player"
It does nothing to produce read clarity for anyone other than you and is incredibly easy to hide behind as scum.
Again, I think this is a fundamental difference between how we both approach the game of mafia, but I can't stand it.

I'm not trying to justify READS, just OPINIONS. Me saying Jay challenging LLD was suicide wasn't a read, it was a prediction based on my experience with both of them.

If I give a read based on meta, I'll explain the exact behaviors that are similar or different so people can understand why.

[Something_Smart]

2. One is scum, good situation, also unlikely just off of odds and what makes sense for play, but you're the one with experience; does LLD-scum gladiate town here despite knowing Excalibur guilties her tonight?

If LLD's scum here, she knows she's a dead woman. I can see her wanting to go out having as much control over the gamestate as she can, I can see her wanting to focus her efforts into eliminating Maria whom she probably sees as more threatening than Jay, and I can see her expecting to do better against someone whom she can potentially emotionally unbalance. So yeah, it's definitely plausible.

3. Both are town, awful situation, not a win-win at all, as we mislynch one and even if we browbeat the other to get the sword, scum can either kill there if they want or avoid it if they're not worried about Maria.

Yes, if LLD is town it isn't a win-win because Maria could be town, but I still think she's a pretty good cop candidate as she's a strong town player and she'll never be trusted if LLD flips green.

However, I would be open to not going through with this if LLD is town, though we'd pretty much have to lynch Maria out of respect for the dead.

[Something_Smart]

If LLD's scum here, she knows she's a dead woman. I can see her wanting to go out having as much control over the gamestate as she can, I can see her wanting to focus her efforts into eliminating Maria whom she probably sees as more threatening than Jay, and I can see her expecting to do better against someone whom she can potentially emotionally unbalance. So yeah, it's definitely plausible.

So your saying she couldnt emotionally unbalance me? I know that wasnt the focus, but it's just something I want to know.

Honestly if she had let me battle her, she saw how many people (yourself included) would have voted me, she definitely had a decent chance of winning. So your saying that she, as scum, would go for the even harder push on Maria? That Seems less optimal as scum.

Yeah, I don't think she'd be able to emotionally unbalance you. You clearly don't know her well and you don't seem like that emotional of a player in general.

And I don't know that she necessarily would have made that move as scum, but I can at least see reasons why she would. Maybe she judged differently from us that she would have lost the duel against you, or she misjudged what the response to dueling Maria would be.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: LLD

Seems like this solves itself, then.

Are you willing to refrain from grabbing the sword if this flips scum?

[Something_Smart]

Wait are we doing the “one person takes the sword” thing again?

My idea was to have Maria take it on an LLD scumflip, and let people do whatever they feel like on an LLD townflip.

I did forget that Maria doesn't like being IC (she told me this when I made her IC in XP Mafia ) but I think she'd be a good pick for it here in the LLD-scum scenario since LLD specifically tried to get her out of the way.

[Something_Smart]

I only really want Maria to get it if LLD is scum, because it means that scum wanted Maria out of the way for a reason. And I do think there's a decent chance of a bus... people bus in situations where it seems dumb, precisely because it seems so dumb nobody would expect it, and clearly LLD thought she was going down anyway.

[Something_Smart]

I only really want Maria to get it if LLD is scum, because it means that scum wanted Maria out of the way for a reason. And I do think there's a decent chance of a bus... people bus in situations where it seems dumb, precisely because it seems so dumb nobody would expect it, and clearly LLD thought she was going down anyway.

So, you’re thinking that LLD is bussing Maria for towncred, hoping someone other than her claims the sword?

Well, yeah. At the time of LLD's challenge, it looked extremely unlikely that we'd be able to orchestrate a plan where a single person claims the sword, probably based in large part due to Varsoon's bamboozle. I don't think scum-LLD would have been expecting scum-Maria to be forced to claim the sword after just winning a gladiate against flipped scum.

[Something_Smart]

Nobody hammer until we've decided what plan we're going with.

[Something_Smart]

Do you intend to claim the sword if she flips scum?

[Something_Smart]

What do you think about my idea? Where Maria (and nobody else) claims the sword if LLD flips scum?

[Something_Smart]

Subject: Scum of Excalibur

Lol @ SS calling me out on EXACTLY what I am doing