On the reliability of scumreads Day 1

This forum is for discussion related to the game.
User avatar
Allomancer
Allomancer
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Allomancer
Goon
Goon
Posts: 958
Joined: November 5, 2016
Location: Earth

On the reliability of scumreads Day 1

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:51 am

Post by Allomancer »

The problem with Day 1 is that no one has any information besides the mafia, so it is difficult to scumhunt as effectively. Most of the info actually comes Day 2 when you can compare who was defending and attacking who with the known allegiances of the dead.

One thing I suggest is a sort of "informational N0". Killers can't kill Night 0 so that everyone still plays, but information gatherers such as Cops can gather information so that people have information for Day 1. Has this ever been done before?
"Who the fuck counts in Babylonian? I'm impressed sir. So impressed that I'm going to ruin your counting."—
xofelf

"This might be the worst hydra I've seen in all of mafiascum history."—
T-bone

"idk, you don't feel like an easy mislynch"—
Creature
User avatar
Creature
Creature
Solve This Game
User avatar
User avatar
Creature
Solve This Game
Solve This Game
Posts: 46072
Joined: January 26, 2016
Location: Lands of Fire

Post Post #1 (ISO) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:58 am

Post by Creature »

Probably wouldn't be nice to get peeked red before you can even play.
Sigh
User avatar
Creature
Creature
Solve This Game
User avatar
User avatar
Creature
Solve This Game
Solve This Game
Posts: 46072
Joined: January 26, 2016
Location: Lands of Fire

Post Post #2 (ISO) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:58 am

Post by Creature »

Also it's actually possible to get something D1 if you have a good participating town.
Sigh
User avatar
Nibbui
Nibbui
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Nibbui
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1336
Joined: September 1, 2018

Post Post #3 (ISO) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:43 am

Post by Nibbui »

I don't think day 1 scum reads are that bad and therefore would need extra info in the day to be worth?

I even feel like it's very useful to look back on the early pages when we're getting out of RVS afterwards because it's impressive how often you can tell something kind of wrong with how scum acts there.

I particularly find day 1 reads good as long as it's based on something substantial (and we can get substantial posts in day 1 imo). Sometimes we even read players correctly on day 1 or early but end up misreading them later with the "extra info" of flips, wagons and NKs.
User avatar
Gamma Emerald
Gamma Emerald
She/It
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Gamma Emerald
She/It
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 69101
Joined: August 9, 2016
Pronoun: She/It
Location: Hell on Earth (aka Texas)

Post Post #4 (ISO) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:29 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

There are some games like this but at least in the Cop 13ers on MU the n0 cannot be on a scum, for what Creature stated
<Embrace The Void>


My pronouns are she and it, please respect that. I don't mind the occasional slip.
User avatar
Zachrulez
Zachrulez
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Zachrulez
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 8550
Joined: December 5, 2008
Location: Minnesota

Post Post #5 (ISO) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:53 pm

Post by Zachrulez »

In post 0, Allomancer wrote:The problem with Day 1 is that no one has any information besides the mafia, so it is difficult to scumhunt as effectively. Most of the info actually comes Day 2 when you can compare who was defending and attacking who with the known allegiances of the dead.

One thing I suggest is a sort of "informational N0". Killers can't kill Night 0 so that everyone still plays, but information gatherers such as Cops can gather information so that people have information for Day 1. Has this ever been done before?
People who write off day 1 and don't start playing day 2 tend to be people who often go on to lose games.

I see so many people say there's no info on day 1. I contend they aren't making enough of an effort to look for it. Day 1 is probably your best foundation for pretty much any info you gather for the rest of the game. I'd argue it's the most important day of the game. (When I think back to a lot of critical lynch decisions I've needed to make in many mafia games regardless of when in the game they were... the info to make the right decision often came through information from day 1.)
User avatar
callforjudgement
callforjudgement
Microprocessor
User avatar
User avatar
callforjudgement
Microprocessor
Microprocessor
Posts: 3972
Joined: September 1, 2011

Post Post #6 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:43 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Cop Head Start is a known mechanic (i.e. N0 with actions but without kills; it's called "Cop Head Start" as investigatives tend to be the only roles that can perform useful actions then). However, it's not used that commonly over here.

If you want to give a player a "N0 innocent", you can use an Informed Townie. We interpret that as being a different role from a Cop (although a player could be both).

Note that there is information you can go on. For example, sometimes players will claim at L-1. Before claims (or in a symmetrical/all-vanilla game), you have at least two other sources of information: scum already know who the scum are (thus you can sometimes pick up on a player's lack of curiosity), and scum will typically be trying to prevent their buddies being the D1 lynch (they may give up doing so at some point if it looks like they're doomed, a transition that's also possible to pick up on). Note that it's often hard to make use of this information
on
D1 – thus it's more commonly used later in the game – but that doesn't mean that it's impossible.
scum
· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·
town
User avatar
mutantdevle
mutantdevle
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
mutantdevle
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 3731
Joined: October 21, 2017
Location: Hell

Post Post #7 (ISO) » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:11 am

Post by mutantdevle »

In post 1, Creature wrote:Probably wouldn't be nice to get peeked red before you can even play.
^^ No one likes losing just because they got copped. But at least on N1+ you can say it's because the person happened to suspect you rather than it being completely random.
I mostly just lurk now.
User avatar
Gamma Emerald
Gamma Emerald
She/It
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Gamma Emerald
She/It
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 69101
Joined: August 9, 2016
Pronoun: She/It
Location: Hell on Earth (aka Texas)

Post Post #8 (ISO) » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:34 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

Honestly if you do get guiltied n0 that means they feared you as scum which says a lot imo
<Embrace The Void>


My pronouns are she and it, please respect that. I don't mind the occasional slip.
User avatar
RadiantCowbells
RadiantCowbells
He/him
Smooth Criminal
User avatar
User avatar
RadiantCowbells
He/him
Smooth Criminal
Smooth Criminal
Posts: 70855
Joined: February 24, 2013
Pronoun: He/him
Contact:

Post Post #9 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:42 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

In post 8, Gamma Emerald wrote:Honestly if you do get guiltied n0 that means they feared you as scum which says a lot imo
What does it say exactly
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
User avatar
RadiantCowbells
RadiantCowbells
He/him
Smooth Criminal
User avatar
User avatar
RadiantCowbells
He/him
Smooth Criminal
Smooth Criminal
Posts: 70855
Joined: February 24, 2013
Pronoun: He/him
Contact:

Post Post #10 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:44 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

In post 0, Allomancer wrote:The problem with Day 1 is that no one has any information besides the mafia, so it is difficult to scumhunt as effectively. Most of the info actually comes Day 2 when you can compare who was defending and attacking who with the known allegiances of the dead.

One thing I suggest is a sort of "informational N0". Killers can't kill Night 0 so that everyone still plays, but information gatherers such as Cops can gather information so that people have information for Day 1. Has this ever been done before?
This is a very weak view of mafia that defeats most of the point of playing mafia imo
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
User avatar
Loopdan
Loopdan
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Loopdan
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2256
Joined: May 13, 2016

Post Post #11 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:53 am

Post by Loopdan »

In post 2, Creature wrote:Also it's actually possible to get something D1 if you have a good participating town.
Especially in Newbie games when you throw away the friendliness and make everyone uncomfortable.
User avatar
Creature
Creature
Solve This Game
User avatar
User avatar
Creature
Solve This Game
Solve This Game
Posts: 46072
Joined: January 26, 2016
Location: Lands of Fire

Post Post #12 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:59 am

Post by Creature »

Sometimes you have to throw away the friendliness.
Sigh
User avatar
MathBlade
MathBlade
He/Him
Technical Support
User avatar
User avatar
MathBlade
He/Him
Technical Support
Technical Support
Posts: 42761
Joined: September 9, 2013
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Western US

Post Post #13 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:12 am

Post by MathBlade »

Mafia is a game of social deduction of incomplete information.

I play it to become better at said social deduction. On other sites I curbstomp but not here. It’s kinda weird.

If you’re wanting complete information as town then you’re no longer deducing. It’s one of the reasons I love vanilla games.

Day one scum give away a lot because they don’t know the board. Games with an N0 peek for the cop have a set strategy especially on MU and other sites and then it’s more going through the motions than mafia.
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade
User avatar
MathBlade
MathBlade
He/Him
Technical Support
User avatar
User avatar
MathBlade
He/Him
Technical Support
Technical Support
Posts: 42761
Joined: September 9, 2013
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Western US

Post Post #14 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:13 am

Post by MathBlade »

In post 6, callforjudgement wrote:Cop Head Start is a known mechanic (i.e. N0 with actions but without kills; it's called "Cop Head Start" as investigatives tend to be the only roles that can perform useful actions then). However, it's not used that commonly over here.

If you want to give a player a "N0 innocent", you can use an Informed Townie. We interpret that as being a different role from a Cop (although a player could be both).

Note that there is information you can go on. For example, sometimes players will claim at L-1. Before claims (or in a symmetrical/all-vanilla game), you have at least two other sources of information: scum already know who the scum are (thus you can sometimes pick up on a player's lack of curiosity), and scum will typically be trying to prevent their buddies being the D1 lynch (they may give up doing so at some point if it looks like they're doomed, a transition that's also possible to pick up on). Note that it's often hard to make use of this information
on
D1 – thus it's more commonly used later in the game – but that doesn't mean that it's impossible.
This information gets used. Just not by the cop.

Standard operating procedure is cop leaves crumb of their N0 peek. When they die that person is confirmed town. Confirmed town leads next day and then dies. It’s all pretty rote.
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade
User avatar
Loopdan
Loopdan
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Loopdan
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2256
Joined: May 13, 2016

Post Post #15 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:39 am

Post by Loopdan »

In post 12, Creature wrote:Sometimes you have to throw away the friendliness.
I didn't mean "Creature" when I said "you." Meant it generically, but I just realized it looks like I'm saying you (Creature) are unfriendly in Newbies, when what I meant to convey was agreement and how it works in my experience.
User avatar
Creature
Creature
Solve This Game
User avatar
User avatar
Creature
Solve This Game
Solve This Game
Posts: 46072
Joined: January 26, 2016
Location: Lands of Fire

Post Post #16 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:41 am

Post by Creature »

In post 15, Loopdan wrote:
In post 12, Creature wrote:Sometimes you have to throw away the friendliness.
I didn't mean "Creature" when I said "you." Meant it generically, but I just realized it looks like I'm saying you (Creature) are unfriendly in Newbies, when what I meant to convey was agreement and how it works in my experience.
I knew you weren't referring me, just was saying sometimes you gotta shower the true reality about competitive mafia.
Sigh
User avatar
Alisae
Alisae
lolbalance
User avatar
User avatar
Alisae
lolbalance
lolbalance
Posts: 47090
Joined: October 31, 2016
Location: Cali~ (PST)

Post Post #17 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:43 pm

Post by Alisae »

In post 0, Allomancer wrote:The problem with Day 1 is that no one has any information besides the mafia, so it is difficult to scumhunt as effectively.
Yo dude just go buy Town of Salem on steam I heard its pretty cheep
GTKAS
| here.
User avatar
RadiantCowbells
RadiantCowbells
He/him
Smooth Criminal
User avatar
User avatar
RadiantCowbells
He/him
Smooth Criminal
Smooth Criminal
Posts: 70855
Joined: February 24, 2013
Pronoun: He/him
Contact:

Post Post #18 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 6:12 pm

Post by RadiantCowbells »

In post 17, Alisae wrote:
In post 0, Allomancer wrote:The problem with Day 1 is that no one has any information besides the mafia, so it is difficult to scumhunt as effectively.
Yo dude just go buy Town of Salem on steam I heard its pretty cheep
Hey don't do this
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
User avatar
northsidegal
northsidegal
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
northsidegal
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 11587
Joined: August 23, 2017

Post Post #19 (ISO) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:26 pm

Post by northsidegal »

i have always disagreed with the notion that day 1's are useless and will argue against it every time i see it brought up. reading people based on their play doesn't really change significantly from day to day, and i really don't think that should be something that you just ignore.

Spoiler: i wrote more words about this here
In post 190, northsidegal wrote:
In post 189, naturalbreadcrumbs wrote:I can see why analyzing day 1 dialogue in the later days would prove to be useful, but on the first day itself, unless you get lucky and hit scum with a wagon, how would you hunt for scum? There's no inherent information distinguishing them from town, right?
Do you believe that people lying and people telling the truth do both of those actions in the exact same way? If so, you would be factually incorrect.

In real life, at least, there are various traits of liars that can distinguish them from people telling the truth: that's the principle behind the polygraph (despite its dubious reliability) and police interrogations. This is perhaps a lot more noticeable in face to face mafia where the stress of continued lying gets to people in a way that might be a lot more obvious than could come across through a textual medium like a forum. That being said, in principle it's still visible through a forum – just because there aren't necessarily
objective
rules for what town do versus what scum do, that doesn't mean you can't analyze things within the context of the game: for example, if someone's thought process is consistent, if it seems like they have conviction in what they're saying, etc.

On something of a separate note (and I bring this up separately because I know that some people disagree with me), a tool that is almost always applicable regardless of the day phase would be using a player's meta. If someone posts a lot as town but doesn't post as much as scum and they're posting a lot in Day 1 of a game that you're in, well... that's something that points towards that person being town that you didn't need any flips to derive. That's obviously a very simple example, but there are much deeper things you could look at, all of which basically come back to the principle of "what's the difference between someone's townplay and their scumplay".


Trying to analyze everyone's alignment simply in terms of the information gained by flips is, in my opinion, almost certainly bound to get lose you games to scum who do things that you just don't expect: bussing, white flag gambits, nightkilling strange targets, etc.
wiki | modded | Newbie NewD3 Stats | scripts

things fall apart
User avatar
Gamma Emerald
Gamma Emerald
She/It
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Gamma Emerald
She/It
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 69101
Joined: August 9, 2016
Pronoun: She/It
Location: Hell on Earth (aka Texas)

Post Post #20 (ISO) » Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:03 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 9, RadiantCowbells wrote:
In post 8, Gamma Emerald wrote:Honestly if you do get guiltied n0 that means they feared you as scum which says a lot imo
What does it say exactly
It says you have a reputation that precedes you and you should be proud of your ability to strike fear into the hearts of towns
<Embrace The Void>


My pronouns are she and it, please respect that. I don't mind the occasional slip.
User avatar
mhsmith0
mhsmith0
Balancing Act
User avatar
User avatar
mhsmith0
Balancing Act
Balancing Act
Posts: 10830
Joined: March 7, 2016
Location: Phoenix, AZ

Post Post #21 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:51 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Colonel Thomas Rainsborough wrote:...Seriously, I want you all to write down your personal list of behaviours in-thread that on d1 you consider scum-indicative and which town-indicative
...
Once you have your lists, now I want you to try a new approach to the game. You are going to catch a mafia d1! Instead of believing this myth that d1 is always a crap-shoot and mafia will likely get a townie lynched that day believe something akin to the opposite.

I believe that d1 is the mafia's hardest day. They will leave a legacy of clues on this day specifically that will help you throughout the game.

If things are going badly for a town as they move into d3, d4, d5 there is more and more 'sludge' in thread - townies posting garbage, getting into fights, confirmation bias written large etc etc. The mafia have all sorts of camoflage to mask their insincerity. So you go back to d1 and you read it again through the lens of all that has happened since...

Oh and that's the clue - you are looking for
insincerity
most especially in why they vote for who they vote on. (They may be insincerely voting on a buddy) How do you spot insincerity - their reasons make no sense or their move from one person to a new target 'jars' you cannot see the progression or evolution in their thinking that is characteristic of a clueless townie or their vote is lazy in its level of scrutiny when you know this person as town is diligent and even sometimes insightful.

So mid-d1 I want you to sort by author and re-read each person's opus. Pick your top 2. Vote for one of them and drive that lynch. See what flows from that. Something might happen that will change your mind, but mostly you will stick with it.

Then every day subsequently most especially when you feel lost and frustrated that you haven't a f*cking clue who the mafia are they are so well hidden. Do the same again and re-find the scum. Things that would not have led you to lynch someone on d1 will now stand out as a clue based on what has happened d2 or d3 etc. Always do vote pattern analysis every day

Either way, d1 is 'pure'. Insincerity has a sharp relief. Mafia don't have as much townie generated 'sludge' to hide behind. Fake scumhunting is hard. bk as scum team lead was doing a good job, but even then ultimately his solution to getting through d1 was to vote on a buddy. I don't blame him. It's one of my favourites too. It has so much long-term value and a good mafia knows that d1 is tough because he is thinking deeply about what it is to be a mafia.

So catching mafia based on d1 is easy? Well of course not. You have a problem. largely useless townies who don't know how to scumhunt drifting into inactivity or just jumping on a bandwagon since they are so unconfident in their own ability to scumhunt or relying on some lame linear reason to vote for someone or its opposite - something woven out of too much complexity as if mafia were masterminds
Show
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
Post Reply

Return to “Mafia Discussion”