Large Normal 217 (Game Over)

[joges]

OK, then.. that does it. I would like to reassure you you'll never walk alone and I'm with you all the way in this game.

Oh don't make me feel bad about scum reading you.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Not_Mafia
Yeah I’m feeling this one

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[joges]

I don't know if this will mean anything to anyone, but since I'm playing from the POV that there are two scum remaining, a most likely a serial killer(Stan) I'm left with these three instances. Three times so far this day there has been someone at L2. L2, in my opinion right now, is a death sentence if town get there without mafia on the wagon. Especially with day chat this game they can really coordinate a quick hammer, and win this game. Considering they know to avoid the potential BP SK for NKs they won't miss, and would gain majority if the SK is alive and real.

However, Stan is really the only person they could quick lynch, because if Stan is a SK, and scum would know I'm pretty sure if he is or is not, then being able to quick lynch him wins the game. If I'm wrong about stan and he is not 3p then this of course changes the below. So I guess this will be for anyone who doesn't think he is. But let me analyse out loud for everyone.

Gamma: Stan
NM: Joges
Stan: Gamma, A50

NV: NM, Pers

3 hours until A50 unvoted

Stan is in range for three hours to be quick lynched here. This tells me that at least one of Gamma and A50 are definitely scum because if both were town then mafia could have finished the game. 3 hours isn't a ton of time, but as slow as this game has been, I really feel like it could have happened. This point in the game too was right after we got our mod answer and Gamma and A50 jumped all over it even though it's pretty obvious Stan isn't mafia. I would not rule out Gamma and A50 being scum team because of that exchange. BUT A50 only had the vote on for 3 hours, so this could be town coming to their senses and getting off.

------------------------------------

NM: Joges
A50: Pers, Stan
Pers: A50

NV: NM

1/3/18 - 11a

A50 is still on L2, and everyone has posted. Which means mafia either know they don't want to quick lynch anyone this day because making it obvious who is scum will aid Stanley's potential, and necessary, kill leaving the last day to a 1v1v1, at this point town would get to pick who wins. In fact, there's quite a few scenarios where town lose this game because of it being 1v1v1 if stan is the SK. Also, this scenario means there could be scum within A50/Pers. Since A50 is the one being voted, so scumA50 isn't going to help quick lynch himself, or Pers is scum already on the wagon and they need another vote.

-----------------------------------
NM: Joges, Gamma
A50: Pers, Stan
Pers: A50
Gamma: NM

1/3/18 - 530p

NM has been on L2 for almost 4 hours now. This means that at least one of Gamma and myself could be scum, or NM could be scum.

However, in doing this I have some worse news really.

Scums best chance of winning this is lynching Stan. IF he is a SK, and they get rid of him it's game over and scum win.

Stan's best chance of winning this is lynching scum today and NKing town, or reverse. Stan NEEDS the 1v1v1.

Town's best chance is if we lynch mafia and he kills mafia then he goes in to final day 2v1 and is the definite lynch.

It's grim.

Now, let's think positive. We could lynch Stan in hopes that I'm batshit crazy about him being SK and that he is a traitor. But someone would have to show me a large normal game where there was no vig/sk and scum had two kills. Like maybe a 1-shot strongman+being able to submit a factional kill? Could that be a possibility? With a protective role and multiple town powers that seems fair.

[joges]

I don't think Stan can be a traitor. Especially if we assume scum rolecop'd him and knows who he is. At that point he's on their same page as they know him and they know he knows them, it's 3v3 at that point. Can't imagine mod would let the game continue knowing that.

[joges]

Well I guess he can be a traitor if it's 2 scum 1 traitor to start the game. Rolecop and Roleblocker plus a traitor. Actually works out in balance in my head as both those actions had to move, and two of our powers could track and watcher-ish type things. So having a traitor who can't do anything means we wouldn't be able to find him, but at the same time we had a fruit vendor who possibly could.

[Gamma Emerald]

Mafia haven’t been allowed extra kills in normals for a while. It’s either a vig, SK, or multiball, and we have no big claim so it’s between the last two.

[joges]

I don't know if any of that has done me any favours. I just think we're going to lose now.

[Gamma Emerald]

why

[joges]

If we lynch mafia today and there is only 1 night kill, then things might look up for us. But if there is a SK and mafia and him choose different targets, and sk doesn't hit mafia? it's 1v1v1 and we lose. Odds are stacked.

[Rob14]

@Rob14 - How would the result of a role cop on a bulletproof, and one time bullet proof, show in this game?

A Role Cop gets as a result the target's role, not including alignment. To answer your specific questions, Town Bulletproof would get a result of "Bulletproof" and Town One-Shot Bulletproof would get a result of "One-Shot Bulletproof".

[Rob14]

Vote Count #5.3:

Not_Mafia:

joges, Gamma Emerald (2)

Almost50:

Persivul, stan1ey (2)

Persivul:

Almost50 (1)

Gamma Emerald:

Not_Mafia (1)

Not Voting:

None.

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

V/LA:

None.

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-01-10 00:15:00)

[Persivul]

If we lynch mafia today and there is only 1 night kill, then things might look up for us. But if there is a SK and mafia and him choose different targets, and sk doesn't hit mafia? it's 1v1v1 and we lose. Odds are stacked.

It's also crossed my mind that, if there's a SK, town might not have a winning scenario absent a mistake. I didn't spell it out because, you know... people make mistakes.

But, if that's the case, I'd rather SK win than scum.

[stan1ey]

So no one claiming to be a vig for the extra kill.

Is it too late for me to change my claim to bulletproof vig?

[Persivul]

So no one claiming to be a vig for the extra kill.

Is it too late for me to change my claim to bulletproof vig?

Doesn't really matter. If you're SK we still don't lynch you today.

[stan1ey]

VOTE: Gamma

[joges]

How do we explain the double role block Clem and I had on N2?

[stan1ey]

Only explanation I can think of is they have a roleblocker and a strongman

[Almost50]

@joges: Mafia are Persivul + Gamma/N_M and lynching Percy is the only way we could have any chance of winning still.

Btw, ALL what Percy has been doing is try to convince Stanley not to kill him. (Assuming Stan is SK)

[Persivul]

Pretty sure joges is going to over-analyze this for 4 more days.

[joges]

I will if left to talk by myself.

[stan1ey]

Any other explanations for Joges and Clem both being role blocked? Im not very knowledgable with roles and setups so

[Almost50]

Lynch Persivul

[stan1ey]

I'm not gonna vote Persivul

[Not_Mafia]

Plop