Mini Normal 2002: The Thaw OVERRRRRRRRR


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Post Post #27 (isolation #0) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:55 pm

Post by implosion »

In post 14, Erika Furudo wrote:A Town Loss is where town handed the win for free, simply by the act of imploding onto each other. Its hard to look at that game and that MoI deserved the win when Town for the most part had imploded in the game.
i feel very attacked rn
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Post Post #29 (isolation #1) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:55 pm

Post by implosion »

VOTE: Erika Furudo
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Post Post #31 (isolation #2) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:56 pm

Post by implosion »

this is already a nominee for game of the year.
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Post Post #33 (isolation #3) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:58 pm

Post by implosion »

I can buy that.
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Post Post #59 (isolation #4) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:41 am

Post by implosion »

Saudade is pretty town already though.
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Post Post #67 (isolation #5) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:06 am

Post by implosion »

I don't understand how people don't realize that Erika is a Spiffeh alt.
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Post Post #68 (isolation #6) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:07 am

Post by implosion »

UNVOTE: Spiffeh
VOTE: Flavor Leaf
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Post Post #81 (isolation #7) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:42 pm

Post by implosion »

please join this wagon thank you
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Post Post #85 (isolation #8) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:11 pm

Post by implosion »

In post 83, Saudade wrote:VOTE: implosion
baby just confess im on to you
nah.
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Post Post #92 (isolation #9) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:41 pm

Post by implosion »

In post 90, MagnaofIllusion wrote:a question toward me
I don't think is likely how scum enters the game after the first couple pages.

55/57 are also pretty good. Doesn't feel like an especially likely thing for scum to want to fake.
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Post Post #93 (isolation #10) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:42 pm

Post by implosion »

I can theoretically see 88 as cheeky scum but it's not reliably so at all and he's still pretty town.
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Post Post #135 (isolation #11) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:57 pm

Post by implosion »

In post 108, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 92, implosion wrote:
In post 90, MagnaofIllusion wrote:a question toward me
I don't think is likely how scum enters the game after the first couple pages.

55/57 are also pretty good. Doesn't feel like an especially likely thing for scum to want to fake.
Read his completed scum win game and get back to me again ...
You seem to have mistaken me for someone.

Got any cliffnotes? Is it just that those things are within his range, or that you specifically think he's the kind of player that would be particularly cheeky as scum?
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Post Post #137 (isolation #12) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:00 pm

Post by implosion »

Do people like, buy flavor's claim?
I really don't.
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Post Post #138 (isolation #13) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:01 pm

Post by implosion »

In post 136, GreyICE wrote:Anyway like how cheeky do you think Saudade is?
Is this @me?

If it is then idk. Moderately? I haven't played with him.
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Post Post #140 (isolation #14) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:02 pm

Post by implosion »

Don't really dislike keely's gamma vote but also don't dislike gamma's stuff. I feel like gamma is one of those players who those kinds of tells aren't especially good on. Although I don't think I've actually seen his scumgame?
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Post Post #142 (isolation #15) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:06 pm

Post by implosion »

In post 119, Flavor Leaf wrote:But yeah, I was very aware I was putting myself at L-2 and not L-1. Wanted to bait the hammer
This is also either flat bullshit or poor sarcasm
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Post Post #153 (isolation #16) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:41 pm

Post by implosion »

Flavor Leaf wrote:Eh. I was clearly aware. But you saying that means you think that I’d either risk taking a hammer as scum on page 4, or you think i’m town who actually thought I thought I was putting myself at L-1.
The part that is bullshit is you claiming you wanted to bait the hammer. I don't doubt as either alignment that you thought you were putting yourself at L-2. I just think it's complete bullshit that you were trying to bait a hammer if you're town, or it's some kind of really bad sarcastic jab like you weren't actually trying to bait a hammer and are being snide. In which case fine but it still leaves a bad taste.
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Post Post #155 (isolation #17) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:54 pm

Post by implosion »

why would a "hammer" in this situation be meaningful?
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Post Post #192 (isolation #18) » Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:14 am

Post by implosion »

In post 162, Erika Furudo wrote:Actually lets make my life easier.
If any one of CoA, Implo, and GreyICE has a read on {Hoopla or Cheetory} that can be explained with words please educate me, I will likely sheep right now if it sounds good.
Preferibly all 3 would be nice.
I don't know if I will figure out how to read Hoopla. This is pretty much what I expected from her as either alignment, though I haven't played with her in 6.5 years.

Cheetory is p much his town self so far. Though not strongly so. There is some merit to what Grey said.
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Post Post #267 (isolation #19) » Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:06 pm

Post by implosion »

meh

Unvote

VOTE: MoI
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Post Post #269 (isolation #20) » Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:19 pm

Post by implosion »

but why
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Post Post #274 (isolation #21) » Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:28 pm

Post by implosion »

i really just don't know what to think about boon. but he's definitely not out of his scumrange. Literally every piece of self meta he gives is 100% worthless. And I normally actually value selfmeta.
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Post Post #278 (isolation #22) » Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:31 pm

Post by implosion »

Townset atm is {Gamma, Cult, Saudade, Keely, Greyice, Erika} with it getting very very weak at the end of the list. GI isn't outside of his scum range I'm sure but I like a lot of what he's posted.

@spiffeh I don't know who you are but I haven't really tried to figure it out.
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Post Post #279 (isolation #23) » Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:32 pm

Post by implosion »

I can also be convinced on saudade but like idk man. I think he's towntold in this game sort of irrespective of meta. I need more reasoning on why the meta trumps that.
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Post Post #288 (isolation #24) » Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:38 pm

Post by implosion »

In post 283, Gamma Emerald wrote:I think you might be town rn
oh mercy me so do i

Saudade is doing a lot of actions that are less likely to come from scum in the gamestate. Going after flavor specifically for selfvoting is not an especially likely scum play, because it draws attention to him and inevitably draws ire from flavor if saudade is scum and flavor is town. He doesn't seem especially interested in being townread, his investigation into his wagon feels genuine.
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Post Post #300 (isolation #25) » Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:34 pm

Post by implosion »

In post 299, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 288, implosion wrote:He doesn't seem especially interested in being townread, his investigation into his wagon feels genuine.
These both don't feel true, what makes you say these things?
He's consistently getting on peoples' bad sides; his treatment toward you and toward boon and toward the wagon on him (eg ) does not look like someone seeking to be townread, it just looks like a townie who's a little bit annoyed that they're being wagoned. I'd expect scum here to be cautious, since he'd either know this is a high profile player list or he'd have no clue about the player list. Like it's possible for him to fake this stuff in theory but it would take a lot of skill. And "but he won a newbie game as scum!" is not enough reason for me to discount it.

WRT his wagon it's sort of the same thing, he's being kind of unnecessarily antagonistic. It's more direct than I'd expect scum to take as a tact here. Idk. It just doesn't feel right as the scum angle. I'd expect him as scum to be a bit more wishy-washy about the people on his wagon, or I'd expect him to be happy to join the MoI wagon. The way he's reacting to the wagon as a whole feels genuine. There are just a lot of little things that I don't think are what he'd do as scum.
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Post Post #302 (isolation #26) » Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:39 pm

Post by implosion »

what does my avatar do to how you read posts
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Post Post #353 (isolation #27) » Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:53 am

Post by implosion »

In post 351, GreyICE wrote:A VT weak investigative role that's confusing in a normal?
you seem to have fallen out of the times of the current meta, the kids are calling it a 'neapolitan' these days
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Post Post #358 (isolation #28) » Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:56 am

Post by implosion »

the quote was something like "today's modern mafia consumer demands hundreds, nay, thousands of variants of vanilla cops" but i think it was a quote from me. I think someone else (maybe EP?) sigged it.
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Post Post #360 (isolation #29) » Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:02 pm

Post by implosion »

Unvote

VOTE: Flavor Leaf
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Post Post #363 (isolation #30) » Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:20 pm

Post by implosion »

nah.
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Post Post #413 (isolation #31) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:14 am

Post by implosion »

In post 364, Saudade wrote:
In post 360, implosion wrote:
Unvote

VOTE: Flavor Leaf
????
explain
thought i answered this yesterday for some reason.

I'm bored with the day and still think he's scum and never really had the best reasons for unvoting him.
MoI wrote:1. He’s more antagonistic against those voting him than scum should be? Um, no that purely a function of personality than alignment – some people are always going to be more aggressive against attackers while some are going to be downright passive.
Disagree. I use the word antagonistic specifically; the way he's doing it makes me think he doesn't really care what they think of him. This isn't a personality tell, some players tend to be more aggressive in general yes but it's rare for scum to go out of their way to alienate half of the player list.
MoI wrote:2. He’d expect scum Saud to be more wishy-washy about the people on his wagon. I’d argue that is exactly what his is doing. For reference Saud posted this –
Yeah I didn't explain this piece well.
MoI wrote:Implosion is implicitly saying he’s Town in his posts. Next he’s voting me at this stage so he is presenting that he thinks I am scum.
False. My vote on you was mostly a placeholder/blindly wagoning. I don't have a good read on you yet. I was vaguely hoping to see how you'd react directly to my vote on you, but then you disappeared for that day and I got tired of waiting. And now you're making a hell of a lot of assumptions about my vote; you're assuming that it was because of an explicit scumread on you, you're assuming that I wanted the wagon to keep growing, and you're assuming that I should be exonerating every vote on the wagon just because I was on it? That is such an un-nuanced way of looking at things. Like, this line:
Why in god’s green earth would Saud get Town points for being hesitant to vote a person he thinks is quite possibly scum who jumped on his wagon? Does that make sense? If anything I’d expect Town Implosion who thinks I am scum to wonder why Saud didn’t jump on the wagon not give him Town points.
is really one-dimensional. Sure, I might not give saud-scum townpoints for avoiding jumping on a wagon on you if I'm completely sold that you're scum... but even if I have a scumread on you, I'm not going to assume that you're scum when I evaluate Saudade's actions. my day one reads are crap like half the time. I don't see why you think I should be looking at Saudade's actions through the lens of my read on you. It could function as evidence that you're scum
together
but d1 associatives are crap.

If Saudade is scum, then unless you're also scum, the wagon on you would be an incredibly easy vote for him to make. He could justify it super easily, he was already throwing some vague shade in your direction, the wagon was growing, etc. You're ignoring my argument to instead talk about pretend reasoning for my vote that I never presented.
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Post Post #414 (isolation #32) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:17 am

Post by implosion »

In post 300, implosion wrote:I'd expect him as scum to be a bit more wishy-washy about the people on his wagon, or I'd expect him to be happy to join the MoI wagon. The way he's reacting to the wagon as a whole feels genuine.
To try to explain that piece better, yeah you're basically taking a single piece of my argument out of context of the rest of it. Basically I just don't think this is the prudent way to react to the pressure on him if he's scum and I don't think it looks like it's faked.

There's a class of tells that I've had in the back of my mind for a bit that are things that scum is somewhat less likely to do because those things are going to draw more negative attention than positive. And I think those tells have a good chance of being some of the most accurate, because even if they're publicly known, scum will still avoid doing them because there's still a large portion of the population who thinks that they're scummy. And it's not too scummy to be scum, per se, it's just doing things that don't really have the clearest motivation if he's scum.

I don't see saudade's motivation for reacting the way he has, as a whole, if he's scum.
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Post Post #415 (isolation #33) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:21 am

Post by implosion »

In post 394, StefanB wrote:So perhabs my question should be: Why is Flavor playing like he does? If someone has a scum-motivation good.
It's impossible to understand flavor's play without some knowledge of his meta. He does things in a very intentionally arbitrary way and makes a point to be inconsistent in certain regards.

His scum motivation here, if he's scum, is simply to try to emulate his meta. He's screwing around with the claim-backtrack-differentclaim shenanigans to try to get people to think in the back of their heads that this isn't something he'd do as scum, even though his sig is very explicit that he'll do pretty much anything as scum.

In a sense, his existence in a game is -EV for town in the same way that creature's is +EV for town.
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Post Post #416 (isolation #34) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:28 am

Post by implosion »

MoI is very consistent in his style of logic and argumentation. He's actually doing a very similar sort of set of assumptions toward Erika and Saudade as he does toward me. He criticizing erika's prism vote on the grounds that based on what erika has said, she should be voting elsewhere. He criticizes Saudade for being skeptical of my vote despite voting in the same direction. It's almost like MoI is assuming that everyone else in the game if they are town is communicating the exact state of their thought process in this game perfectly. And that's just not true of town in general. The problem is that I'm pretty sure this isn't a tell for MoI and I have no idea how to actually read him, and the push even feels vaguely reminiscent of the last game I played with MoI where we were both town and suspected each other. Which is why I can understand why erika wants to just lynch him the day before lylo if he's still alive. And why I don't really understand why he's critical of erika for claiming inability to read him. I just don't know how to interpret any of this with regards to his alignment.
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Post Post #417 (isolation #35) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:31 am

Post by implosion »

In post 384, StefanB wrote:was hopfully a joke or he wins the are you reading the posts or just skimming them, award.
also yes this post was a joke if that wasn't clear.

Stefan is also probably town. Which nominally leaves hoopla/moi/hiraki/prism to sort. Two people who haven't posted substantially and two people who I have no clue how to read. Although I can see hoopla as scum here maybe.
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Post Post #420 (isolation #36) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:39 am

Post by implosion »

In post 393, Hiraki wrote:MoI is not scum atm.
I would just love if you could justify this one.
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Post Post #427 (isolation #37) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:08 am

Post by implosion »

In post 422, Hiraki wrote:but is sideline pushing him super hard
what
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Post Post #428 (isolation #38) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:08 am

Post by implosion »

what precisely is sideline pushing and how does one do it super hard
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Post Post #430 (isolation #39) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:58 am

Post by implosion »

because i am calling magna scum???
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Post Post #431 (isolation #40) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:59 am

Post by implosion »

please read 416 again
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Post Post #441 (isolation #41) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:03 pm

Post by implosion »

Prism wrote:This seems off to me. You're thinking of this in terms of expected outcomes/values already. Do you feel as though the backtrack on the claim is more likely as scum?
The EV thing isn't how I'm thinking about the game, it's just an attempt to help explain boon's meta. I'm not sure how you get that from the post.
From your perspective though, I feel like this is a statement on possible motivation with little focus on the likelihood of each, and I don't like it.
Pretty sure I've explained elsewhere why exactly I think the scum motivation is more likely. I guess I haven't really in depth but basically just a lot of what he's done around it reads like plain bullshit. The claim about wanting to bait a hammer, the half-assed "oh i'm not sure if i remember what my role pm was maybe it was vt". And the admitting that he's really scummy and claiming he's willing to eat a lynch for it. All of that is just gross.
Stefan wrote:I think beeing clear and logical are not exactly antitown.
So a player who looks protown is the same as someone who allways looks scummy?
This isn't the point I'm making; the point is just that MoI is making a lot of assumptions. It's partially a rhetorical style he has but his read on me in particular is rooted in assumptions about/misinterpretations of my posts. It's certainly protown to be clear and logical but town players aren't always, and don't always explain the entirety of their decision-making process unprompted.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #42) » Sun Apr 08, 2018 7:15 am

Post by implosion »

I agree with Hooplarian2.
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Post Post #490 (isolation #43) » Sun Apr 08, 2018 1:38 pm

Post by implosion »

Won't have time to post more than this tonight.

I'm really, really tempted to just not respond to MoI's last wall at all because I'm pretty sure we're both just misunderstanding each other and it's unproductive to keep going back and forth. So a select couple of points:
so your vote was a reaction test that failed miserably
This is a complete misrep. It was not a reaction test more than it was just a placeholder of i-don't-have-anywhere-better-to-put-this.
as opposed to keeping a vote on your claimed scum suspect in Flavor?
Like I said (at least I'm pretty sure I said this) I was somewhat concerned about the claim even though I didn't believe it. Or at least I felt like I should unvote because of it. I went back and forth about it a bit in my head, and it's all colored by the fact that it's boonskiies.
Umm whut? You are giving him a solid Town read on his refusal to jump on a bandwagon on me. And are not to going to assume my alignment in doing so?
Why the hell would I.
Your alignment has very little directly to do with his; town are wrong sometimes. Scum bus sometimes. Jumping or not jumping onto a wagon that happens to be on scum is not a tell out of the context of the jump/lack thereof itself. Towns lynch mafia at a rate close to random on day one, and modulating how I'm reading one person with how I'm reading another with no flips is just guaranteed to have something wrong.

Third point WRT erika is fair.

But overall I just feel like you're misinterpreting me very heavily because (i think like keely said) you're imposing the way you think about the game on to me, which is something I used to do a while ago but stopped because it's just a bad idea.

@Hiraki: you probably have a good point that I'm being at least somewhat hypocritical WRT magna and boon. But (1) I respect magna's play in general a lot more, and (2) I do think I've seen things from boon that are more likely to come from him as scum. I've certainly entertained the thought of flavor being town and I'm not sure why you think I haven't. I'm not sold on him being scum by any means, but he's scummier to me than anyone else in the game right now. I don't always get good scumreads on day one and I try to audit myself because I have a tendency to latch on to things that I later wind up completely disagreeing with myself on.
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Post Post #526 (isolation #44) » Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:41 am

Post by implosion »

Prism wrote:Where he falls on the spectrum probably varies depending on alignment but this is in general reeks of what I thought was also wrong with his flavor read (Seems to be a focus on just picking a possible motivation then selling it rather than the reverse).
You are clearly very unfamiliar with my towngame. Which is odd given that I did this quite a lot in the one game you've played with me, where I was town. I don't "just pick a motivation"; it's never arbitrary.
I also really don't like #416. It's giving reasons for MoI being plausibly town but there's a pervasive fear of explicitly saying so that I don't think is town behavior.
??????

I am extremely explicit about the fact that this is all null to me. I really don't want to make an enemy out of MoI, because the last time we played together he tunneled me and I tunneled him back and we were both town. And I would really like to avoid that if he is town because it's the only time I've been mislynched in a damn long time. This is one of the big reasons why I can't read his push on me easily. Like I said, he's done it before. And that's really frustrating.

I have no idea what in what I said you think I should be townreading Magna for. He's done a lot of shit that he's done before as town, and nothing that I don't think he can fake as scum (and nothing that I think he's especially unlikely to fake as scum). Saying that I should be townreading him is another horrible misrep of what I've been saying.

How much do you remember of my meta from the game we played a while ago?
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Post Post #529 (isolation #45) » Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:45 am

Post by implosion »

In post 527, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 526, implosion wrote:I really don't want to make an enemy out of MoI, because the last time we played together he tunneled me and I tunneled him back and we were both town.
Link this game please.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=66137
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Post Post #531 (isolation #46) » Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:55 am

Post by implosion »

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Post Post #562 (isolation #47) » Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:25 pm

Post by implosion »

from Hoopla feels really, really ridiculously pockety. I don't like any of her posts on the last page really. If a wagon pops up on her I'll join it, although I'd still rather lynch flavor if we can swing it especially since he's already claimed.

@Prism's :
I'm not asserting that you're town, and I am asserting that the pick of a motivation seems arbitrary. I don't see how these two are inconsistent.
I actually have no idea what these words are saying. You're saying that you think I'm scum because you think I've been picking motivations to be more likely in an arbitrary way? If so, specifics?
I'm aware that it was explicitly null; that's my entire problem with it. You're citing a lot of behaviors he's doing that aren't ideal but you've seen from a town Magna. You aren't sure that it's a tell but the care with which you're treating Magna vs. the willingness to pass out townreads elsewhere is incredibly odd. I don't see any reason for you to fear him so much you see a game that reminds you of town Magna and still just go "he's null"
One, it reminds me of town magna from two years ago.

Two, and more importantly, like I said it doesn't remind me of town magna in a way that I think Magna can't fake. All of my townreads have done things that I think they're unlikely to fake as scum. Honestly thinking about it in this light is making me lean slightly town on him, but it's similar to my townlean on Grey in that he's certainly capable of faking what he's done so far, it's just somewhat more likely to come from town. But like, it's a mixed bag? I'm pretty sure Magna uses the same kind of logic as scum, i.e. that these things aren't tells for him. It might be that he only does these things as town but that would be pretty one-dimensional of a meta to have for an established player.

Not really sure what to make of Prism's content and not sure what people see that is strongly town. This doesn't seem especially far from what I remember of Prism's scumgame, though I haven't seen their towngame.
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Post Post #607 (isolation #48) » Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:22 pm

Post by implosion »

I'll look at the stephen stuff more closely tonight. But at a glance meh.

Keely townread becomes slightly stronger in past couple pages.
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Post Post #610 (isolation #49) » Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:47 pm

Post by implosion »

In post 606, MagnaofIllusion wrote:And everyone needs to not be overlooking Saud who has basically active-lurked out after several people gave him strong Town reads for being … him I guess.

Cult has moved into Null for me … too little content this stage to continue giving him a Town read.
These are both pretty reasonable. I'm not especially concerned about it for Cult because she did something similar in miss list (at least, I remember math complaining about her lurking in later days after iirc a lot of people were calling her town) though that wasn't really a real game for purposes of meta.

Definitely want more from both slots about recent developments. Especially with the vote count in the state that it is now with no big wagons and a ton of small wagons.
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Post Post #626 (isolation #50) » Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:07 pm

Post by implosion »

Yeah that stefan case is actually pretty good. I think is the thing I was initially townreading him for, mostly off tone. But looking at it more closely it's the kind of thing that can be genuine from scum who has no idea how to react to the flavor wagon.

I feel like there might have been more. But yeah I'm rereading his stuff and his opening post feels bleh and his initial nullread on flavor is bleh and there's not a whole lot there.

VOTE: StefanB
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Post Post #627 (isolation #51) » Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:12 pm

Post by implosion »

MoI wrote:Honest question Implosion – aside from really weak players are there any players who can’t fake things they do as Town as scum?
"Can't" is sort of the wrong word. If you dig deep enough it's all about probabilities, i.e. given a post there's a certain probability that the player in question would have made that post as town and as scum. Sometimes very good players, particularly good town players, will do things that they just aren't especially likely to do as scum. To contrast, those players' scum play probably usually consists of doing things that they do frequently as either town or scum. It's not necessarily that they
can't
do the things that they "more frequently" do as town; it's that they're less likely to be able to do them consistently in a way that people that know them well won't realize are off.

This is one of those paragraphs that has about a 50% chance of making sense so lmk if it doesn't at all.
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Post Post #628 (isolation #52) » Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:15 pm

Post by implosion »

But yeah I'm happy to go in the stefan direction now. I'd still be fine with hoopla. Flavor's reaction to the stefan case throws me for a little bit of a loop. I don't think he'd do that if stefan is scum with him, but I also don't think he'd go out of his way to defend stefan-town if he's scum. I especially don't think he makes that post if they're both scum, but that's sort of conjecture about his meta and I'm sure he'll say that he would.
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Post Post #715 (isolation #53) » Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:40 am

Post by implosion »

man, there is just so much to love in these past two pages i don't know if i can possibly express how much i love all of it.

I actually am coming around on flavor town x_x. Though I
despise
completely agree with and just cannot express the genius present in everything he's posted in the past two pages.

That kind of lie isn't really alignment-indicative ime. It can just be town thinking they've done something and forgetting that they didn't.
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Post Post #717 (isolation #54) » Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:41 am

Post by implosion »

In post 711, StefanB wrote:If we have a lye awasome.
But I will try to find out what Grey is refering, too, tomorrow, good night.
This though feels like a scum reaction to the case. Latching onto something that will reduce pressure on him.

Also another reason I think to think that stefan+flavor aren't both scum.
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Post Post #795 (isolation #55) » Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:46 am

Post by implosion »

i'm tempted to just hammer. I'm so bored with this day. I just want a flip. I don't think cult flips scum though.
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Post Post #875 (isolation #56) » Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:44 am

Post by implosion »

If this flips town stefan needs to die tomorrow.
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Post Post #877 (isolation #57) » Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:19 am

Post by implosion »

Don't you...
Forget about MoI....
Don't, don't, don't don't
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Post Post #879 (isolation #58) » Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:44 am

Post by implosion »

Yes bc me calling for the same person that I don’t know why we didn’t lynch today is a preflight associative that makes sense

I’m going to let autocorrect have that one.
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Post Post #893 (isolation #59) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:47 am

Post by implosion »

In post 0, Nexus wrote:30. The setup is 10:3
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Post Post #906 (isolation #60) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:29 am

Post by implosion »

Grey, gamma, saudade
hoopla
piplup
flavor, MoI
hiraki, prism
stefan

is vaguely where I'm at. Particularly interested in digging into hiraki/prism. Also piplup is entirely lingering and needs to be refreshed. Flavor/MoI are both town to me at this point but I feel like my justifications for calling them both town aren't especially good. MoI I like the hammer from. It looks genuine and not something I think scum does in that spot for fear of conspicuousness. Hoopla is the other read I get from the wagon, her vote is very very town.

Don't think this is gamma's scumgame. Though I don't remember why I definitely remember thinking that pretty confidently.

VOTE: Stefan
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Post Post #908 (isolation #61) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:31 am

Post by implosion »

The on/off wagon thing is dumb. For reasons Grey said, and because there's a good chance that it's one-on-one-off (just from purely my reads/the numbers, I think looking at situations like this at a high level and saying "there were probably x scum on the wagon" is bunk).
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Post Post #909 (isolation #62) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:32 am

Post by implosion »

In post 900, GreyICE wrote:This is nonsense.

Gamma, are you town?
It is precisely the kind of nonsense that Gamma tends to spout as town, though I haven't seen his scumgame I think.
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Post Post #958 (isolation #63) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:14 pm

Post by implosion »

Prism wrote:Also Implosion, you sure you're the type to just consider hammering out of apathy? And voice that consideration when you decide not to?
I got really bored yesterday. Sue me. Honestly I probably was never going to hammer but idk, I Just got really sick of watching wagons arbitrarily shift around with almost no cohesion.
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Post Post #962 (isolation #64) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:23 pm

Post by implosion »

I can kind of see the day-end-town arguments for both prism and stefan. I'm not sure how much weight I want to put into either of them. The weird thing about Stefan's play if he's scum is he went so far in on this skepticism of grey, while simultaneously saying that if coa flipped scum it would mean grey was town, when if he's scum he knows what coa is flipping. I don't think the uncertainty about the hammer is especially hard to fake but scum somewhat likely doesn't go out of their way to do that kind of thing. Prism's posting looks somewhat genuine-gamesolvey which is harder than usual to fake in that context.
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Post Post #968 (isolation #65) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:26 pm

Post by implosion »

Piplup, why do you think that it was most likely exactly one busser? I dislike agreeing in any capacity with something that flavor has said but it feels really lazy to frame the game that way.
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Post Post #970 (isolation #66) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:29 pm

Post by implosion »

And the MoI/GI thing makes me go :s.

It almost feels like a scum gambit from MoI but I don't think he'd feel the need to go for a gambit like that? But like, citing 873 and willingness-to-bus-weak-scumbuddies as his only reasoning is pretty damn weak. 873 doesn't seem like a good reason to think scum on a player who is pretty universally outspokenly confident on his reads as both alignments.
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Post Post #1022 (isolation #67) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:39 am

Post by implosion »

I think I like hoopla's argument re: the nightkill. The keely kill is really weird for basically one reason, which is that he doesn't seem to have had any really outspoken reads near eod. If MoI or GI is scum I don't necessarily think that they would want to kill the other, but I don't think a keely kill points to one of them being scum at all. It's a kill I can easily see being made with them both as town, especially if one or both scum don't know them well.

There's a lot of sort of straightforward reasons to think Piplup is scum. feels scum-caught-for-the-wrong-reasons-y, and his reasoning in a lot of cases is extremely one-dimensional/easy to fake. Pieces of it actually remind me of i think my first scumgame on MS when I pushed someone for a long time for iirc purely "logic" reasons, things like "this person said something false." Those reasons are almost always bad reasons to scumread people and they're extremely easy to fake as scum and they are the kind of thing that scum will fake in practice.

Unvote

VOTE: Piplup

I really have no interest in subscribing to a moi/gi 1v1 right now. Still don't feel great about stefan.
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Post Post #1024 (isolation #68) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:47 am

Post by implosion »

What's with yours with flavor leaf?
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Post Post #1027 (isolation #69) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:53 am

Post by implosion »

I was voting him at the beginning of this day.
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Post Post #1088 (isolation #70) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:22 pm

Post by implosion »

All of this @MoI. Also others but particularly MoI.

Re: . Meh. I see the line of logic but I don't buy it being a strong tell. There are things that scum have to go "out of their way" to do, and this is one of them, but it's something that I think scum at basically anything other than a really low level of play will do sometimes. I don't see why scum-CoA with Erika as a partner would be particularly loathe to post those interactions because I don't think they're the kinds of interactions that are likely to be scrutinized in the way you're describing. They're the kinds of interactions that scum has toward town to generically blend in, and has toward scumbuddies sometimes because they have to do similar things to scum as they are doing to town.

In particular, by that point in the game from CoA, she has reached out to Keely, Gamma, Erika and Saudade. And I think your characterization of her interactions with Erika as being "to discuss reads and share information" loosely applies to all of those interactions, and I don't think it's particularly unlikely that CoA as scum will have picked out a scumbuddy to interact with in that way by then. Or at least, I don't see what you're seeing that makes her interactions with erika more significant.

Basically, I don't think that it's something that scum avoids doing when they're in that mode of interacting with a bunch of players. I think there's solid chances that they'll ignore scumbuddies in that mode, but also solid chances that they'll intentionally throw one in there, similar to the old tell that if flipped scum lists 4-6 names in a post there's probably scum in there.

Flavor's play right now is all different kinds of gross. In terms of determining his alignment, I honestly just don't see a reason to read into the softclaim either way, at least not on its own without context since it's the kind of stupid gamethrowing shit that I could see him pulling as either alignment. Like this:
Flavor wrote:Ive been trying to look at why exactly I’m being pushed, and any reason i could find can just be canceled out with an “yeah, you’re right, that happened. It’s just coming from TownMe.”
is really fucking stupid, and kinda frustrating, but is ultimately mostly accurate I think. I'm not sure what to think right now of the reasons I scumread flavor earlier. The dumb half-softclaim inno makes me think scum a little, though. It's definitely the kind of thing that would come from a player who played like he did in nsg's normal and it has more objective utility as scum than as town because it lets him float value without actually doing anything in practice.

I need to sit on thoughts on him for a bit.
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Post Post #1089 (isolation #71) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:22 pm

Post by implosion »

I also do really want to see what Hiraki has to say here.
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Post Post #1090 (isolation #72) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:25 pm

Post by implosion »

I also am very much tossing around the idea of whether or not I'm just horribly misreading stefan and yeah I don't feel great about my reads right now ^_^

I still feel good about moi/gi being town though, and saudade and gamma.
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Post Post #1178 (isolation #73) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:45 pm

Post by implosion »

Prism wrote:i don't get why the FUCK we aren't lynching the shit out of implosion still because he was like "lol idk man i might hammer coa i just don't know" and nothing he has said even justifies that or suggests he's that kind of player he was just like "oh yeah haha i get bored" and unless he changed drastically from the podoboq game i really doubt he is that kind of player, the entire reason i targeted him there for a scum push was because i knew he was surgically precise
Lol, my game is not surgically precise. And I don't know if I'd ever describe it as having been that way. Idk what you want from me. Your sense of my meta is just way off.

If you want the most recent version of my town meta, look at team mafia. I was pretty much playing the game on my own.

I have zero desire to read a single thing boon has posted in the past two pages.
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Post Post #1179 (isolation #74) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:46 pm

Post by implosion »

MoI wrote:Hey Implosion - remember yesterday when you were lecturing me that I was focused on a playstyle difference since we inherently disagreed on your position about alignment reading without relational analysis? Well if you are Town this right here is absolutely in the same boat and no amount of you saying "I disagree" is going to change that for me so it's best to not bother. Feel free to disregard my analysis but don't tell me it's wrong.
I mean. I'm going to tell you I disagree if I do. You're free to still disagree with me.
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Post Post #1180 (isolation #75) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:47 pm

Post by implosion »

Like Prism, I want to know where you're getting this idea of surgical precision from. I think I've played two games with you, podoboq's and girls pt 1. Podoboq's I can almost see what you mean (I was basically just tunneling boring all game though) and girls pt 1 I was in no way being surgically precise, I just blurted out a bunch of reads that happened to be mostly right as far as I remember.
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Post Post #1187 (isolation #76) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:54 pm

Post by implosion »

i mean it's more reaffirmed by the thread you made about EVs and voting first in LyLo, you don't really seem to be the type of person to let boredom get in the way of your optimal play
i literally made that thread because i was bored at work <_<

That thread has almost nothing to do with the way I play, it has to do with me being a math nerd who is amused by the math side of mafia.
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Post Post #1194 (isolation #77) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:57 pm

Post by implosion »

because "optimal" is in practice not a useful way to play the game. Optimality as a concept is useful for analyzing vanilla setups for EVs. It's almost never useful in a game.

"Optimal" play is literally to roll a die to pick the lynch every day, in a game theoretic sense. Minus the subtlety that most mods forbid provable randomness.
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Post Post #1234 (isolation #78) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:16 pm

Post by implosion »

In post 1203, Prism wrote:that seems like practical application to me

i don't think being bored lines up with that
til that players who ever attempt to practically apply game theory to games are not allowed to be bored
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Post Post #1243 (isolation #79) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:18 pm

Post by implosion »

It feels like every person in this game has their pet 100% scumread and almost all of them are on different people.
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Post Post #1246 (isolation #80) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:20 pm

Post by implosion »

prism you can just do you for now we can talk when you're able to look at things with a degree of rationality.

My presence on md has like nothing to do with how i play mafia.
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Post Post #1248 (isolation #81) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:20 pm

Post by implosion »

by god.
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Post Post #1272 (isolation #82) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:49 pm

Post by implosion »

prism pls sleep
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Post Post #1286 (isolation #83) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:19 pm

Post by implosion »

Yeah Stefan is probably town.
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Post Post #1296 (isolation #84) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 10:35 am

Post by implosion »

Yeah we need prods on like half of the player list.

I might just vote flavor to get something done once we get a votecount. We're at risk of dying of apathy.
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Post Post #1309 (isolation #85) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:22 pm

Post by implosion »

It's possible I'm wrong on gamma.
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Post Post #1343 (isolation #86) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:19 am

Post by implosion »

stop fucking spamming the game or i will hammer you.
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Post Post #1347 (isolation #87) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:21 am

Post by implosion »

I have no idea why you're claiming you wouldn't fakeclaim this as scum. It seems like literally exactly the kind of thing you'd fakeclaim here as scum, even if you're town.
pedit sigh.
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Post Post #1399 (isolation #88) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:28 pm

Post by implosion »

I'm predictably quite busy.

I feel like the kill might just be trying to frame Grey. Not sure why MoI wasn't shot, though. I don't think it's worth reading deeply into because it doesn't seem like whatever motivation there was is obvious.

I'm a little paranoid that I could be wrong on gamma. Other than that I want to look at Prism, Hiraki and Piplup.
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Post Post #1426 (isolation #89) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:28 pm

Post by implosion »

I know it isn't ideal timing, but unfortunately I don't have the time or energy to put into this game anymore between the timing of work getting difficult in the past few weeks and becoming listmod and that I'm about to mod a game that I already delayed once and really don't want to delay again. And I just can't get into the game between all of that and the week of silence from ucv >_>

I'm requesting replacement.
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Post Post #1944 (isolation #90) » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:00 pm

Post by implosion »

If you want to nominate this game or any people in it (moderator or players) for a scummy, please do!
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