Monty Hall Bsuinss

[shaft.ed]

Why is or isn't that a thing?

human psychology

but yes, you should always switch

[shaft.ed]

how

[shaft.ed]

its guaranteed to be half as likely
not bad

[shaft.ed]

easier way to think of it is switching is like picking two doors
not switching is like picking one door

[shaft.ed]

Might be the wrong way of thinking about it, but what about a simpler explanation.

When you picked your door it had a 1/3 chance of being correct. Yes Monty opens a goat door, but that goat door doesn't change your odds because he can always open a goat door after your pick. Thus that doors odds remain 1 in 3.

However, for the switch door, you have new information. The goat door being opened does impact that door's odds since you are selecting it after the reveal. So it is a 1 in 2 chance of being the correct door.