In post 9528, profii wrote:I'm just going to spew my thoughts as something fishy is happening and i want to try and work it out...
Obviously BEF flipped town and he shot us in the foot with the vengeful claim so scum used it to kill drewva - the thing that has got me thinking is some people were talking about me & BEF having to be TvS... I thought BEF was scum so i kinda just ignored it and was assuming i'd be basically lock town at this point but now it's got me thinking...
the sequence of events i think was
Day 1 -> I claimed and stated I saw a bread crumb so I knew what my plan was, infact I quoted S_S when i said this - so scum knew I had some kind of plan...
Night 1 -> BEF gave me a sticky fruit and I made PP loyal. We also know these 2 players were town.
Day 2 -> I declared I made a breadcrumb slot loyal and I'd give them the Sticky fruit that night...
Night 2 -> I gave the sticky fruit to PP and I made Creature Loud (I recall discussing with mcqueen he was obviously some kind of PR so i figured it may help verify him)
Day 3 -> TLK claimed to have a sticky fruit, PP claimed to have regular fruit'd him, much later Creature claimed not to be loud. I claim to have no idea why TLK has sticky fruit.
We then lynched TLK...
So in my mind, S_S put me in jail to knacker the stickyfruit plan.
That means, given EFN lynch, there are 4 scum alive, 1 jails another to... make a show for later? given the role was 1 shot, seems a weird waste - the counter argument is I'm sitting on a loud shot and i am just suggesting i was jailed...
So let's say I'm scum and I 'pretended' to loud creature and actually just gave TLK a sticky fruit - what is pro-scum here -> TLK became ascetic -> I guess the logic here is that scum!me assumed TLK would get investigated, so the fruit would mess it up and ensure the lynch -> seems like a valid stance BUT if that's the case why did me and my supposed scum buddies get involved in this plan and end up with S_S & Elsa saying they would hammer and neither of them did (yes I scum read you elsa for that, hi!) -> the net gain of this course of action is if I'm lucky and an investigation went to TLK, it tips that person into pushing a slot (because they aren't going to out a 'no result' that early) who was already likely to be lynched and if knew i was doing that i'd arrange for my buddies not to be involved in the hammer escapades
it just seems like a really bad risk/reward idea for scum that no way 4 people are going to go 'yeah thats the best idea lets do that' - when you could just go 'pass the fruit around the scum team and make us ascetic' -> surely as scum, you just kill BEF and dont mention the fruit ever again whilst keeping it within the team
So that still doesn't explain where the fruit came from - the best theory i've got is TLK either made a mistake in his claim or tried a weird claim gambit and scum are just using it to their advantage because obviously it was wrong...
and just to review why I think TLK made a mistake -
4630 TLK isn't fully open at first and says he got a fruit that was tacky - i think he got a regular fruit so knew of it's existence, but due to my claim, knew of the SF so tried to see where he could go
in 4631 PP makes it clear that he did not get anything from me and assumes TLK got the sticky fruit
then by 4633, TLK goes all in on the sticky fruit - i think he saw PPs posts and thought he could survive if i died first so just went for it (or something... i cant read his mind obviously)
The reason I'm thinking of this is that Scum Tracker thing Jingle mentioned just now - there was a point where people were saying BEF vs me is mechanically TvS because the claims and sequence as per above clashes...
now we unanimously voted BEF when drewva died so I kinda ignored the TvS discussion because I just assumed BEF would flip scum and I'd eat a bullet sooner or later as I became basically inno'd... but then he flipped town -> This reinforces my view of a TLK mistake because of the scum tracker idea from Jingle has only just come out after BEF flipped -> why wasn't it highlighted when we were talking about me vs BEF being TvS to give everyone the full facts of who we should lynch
I think if I flipped town first, then Jingle can't push the scum tracker idea because I am already proven to be acting exactly as i said i have been, which means it gives more credibility to what actually happened (TLK mistake) and BEF is less likely to be considered lock scum in the event of my town flip so he HAD to flip before me to set off a chain reaction
I think BEF vengeful was just a moment of madness / opportunity wrt the DrewVa thing and infact while i mention that DrewVa was strongly advocating me as a big town read of theirs, so if I am scum, why do i kill them when Bef is going to get mislynched anyway - i'll let someone else make sense of that.
so yea this tracker idea - it seems to have conveniently appeared today to try and act as a nail in my coffin i think - the actual thing going on is PP said he was going to target 1 of 3, one of whom was scum, so PP had to die in case he did target the scum in the 3 -> Jingle
So it's Jingle + Elsa + ? for me.
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile"){kind=icon}
