[SETUP/EV] Connect

[BNL]

2 Mafia Goon
2 Vanilla Townies

There is a Day 1 discussion period, then the game moves into Night 1 where the townies try to connect by privately guessing who the other townie is.

If the townies connect, they win
If none of the townies find each other, they lose.

Otherwise there’s a second discussion period on Day 2, and the townies are given a second chance to connect on Night 2. If they manage to do so, they win, otherwise scum win.

I think this might be runnable as a tiny Marathon, but I want to make sure there isn’t a broken strategy. Can anyone figure out the optimal strategies and the EV?

As a bonus question, what’s the EV if there is no discussion on Day 1?

[BNL]

What do you think of this if townies survive to Day 2 no matter what, but the number of connected townies is revealed?

[BNL]

Another idea I have which may be closer to balanced:

3 Mafia, 2 Town. Townies try to connect twice. Number of connected townies is revealed after first attempt.

[BNL]

I just remembered a 50% EV strategy for the original game, with 2 Mafia 2 Town, 2 Guesses, and instant loss with no connection:

Night 1: A -> B <-> C <- D
Night 2: A <-> B C <-> D

If B/C are town town win N1. If A/B or C/D are town they survive N1 and win N2. All other pairings lose N1.