In post 979, xwing wrote:how did you arrive at the conclusion that both scum bussed tgp?
At the time?
Experience.
In Mini Normals, on D1, if there is a scum lynch, then about 80-90% of the time, there is at least one scum who bussed to achieve the result.
There is about a 60-75% chance of it being
two
scum bussing.
These odds decrease if there is a STRONG counterwagon (we're talking a minimum of 4 votes AT END OF DAY, preferably being even higher at like 5 or 6) by like 10-20%, because if there's a strong, STRONG counterwagon to the scum lynch, it's possible that the scum were fighting it.
These odds increase if there's a complete and utter LACK of a counterwagon (we're talking, nobody at 3 or above votes) by 5-10%.
Since there was no counterwagon, instantly that means scum bussing.
Of course. That was my original entrance reasoning.
Since then?
You need only look at one simple fact.
In post 592, schadd_ wrote:TheGoldenParadox (7):
Trivium, LolWagons, Egix96, xwing, Nikk, profii, Robert2424
Robert2424 (2):
Doughboy,
Flubbernugget
Lapsa (1):
Sashaddin
profii (1):
TheGoldenParadox
Egix96 (1):
Wagonomics
not voting (1):
Lapsa
I am Doughboy's slot. I know it to be town.
The only living player other than myself off the D1 scum lynch is Lapsa--meaning that even if Lapsa is scum, there's at least one scum ON the wagon, meaning there is at least one scum who bussed.
And if Lapsa is town, then regardless of who the scum would be in Nikk/Egix/xwing, we'd have two scum bussing.
Now obviously, this only works from my perspective because I know my slot is town and others do not, but you can see where I'm coming from. I 100% know for an absolute FACT one scum bussed--if one scum bussed, why not two?
In post 979, xwing wrote:also see egix's post
910, the part on trivium..how come you attack me but not egix, who's basically saying the same thing as i am??
Uh, I don't see how that was the same? "Not 100% conftown but out of POE for now" was a perfectly reasonable stance to hold; that wasn't the stance I saw from you.
Not strong enough to bet the game on it--quite the opposite, in fact; Nikk's a weak townread. He doesn't look like scum, but I'm well aware that the reasons I'm townreading him are largely stupid stuff that I'm putting a lot of weight into.
In post 985, xwing wrote:can we vote lapsa now? mastina are you still not done with your reread? im expecting heaps from you, no pressure.
So am I--by that, I mean. I am expecting to be in the position of gamesolving because of my status. Except in spite of my promise to read today, I can't.
I'm suffering from extreme fatigue today--I don't know
why
I am this tired. Logically, there shouldn't be any reason. I slept half of the day! I didn't work today at all! I've basically had the most stress-free, relaxing, calming, soothing day humanly possible, where I've gotten the amount of rest necessary to do what I want.
Except.
In spite of that. It's still there. I'm frustrated and even baffled by it; by all analysis and such, I SHOULD be in perfect health both mentally and physically (not to mention, emotionally) right now. Yet I'm tired to the point where I want to sleep. And my high standards are precisely why that's prevented me from reading today.
I could
read
today, in spite of being tired. But I wouldn't
process
the information I read, and because processing and analyzing the information is what I most need to do, then I need to put it off until the fatigue goes away. In spite of me working tomorrow, I
think
I'll be recovered tomorrow, so I'll delay for one day. Apologies for not finishing it today like I originally planned. Hope the 24 hour wait is worth it.