Micro 845: The Room Odds - Game Over

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Post Post #5  (isolation #0)  » Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:03 am

Get a room: Something_Smart and Flavor Leaf

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Post Post #6  (isolation #1)  » Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:04 am

In post 1, BulletNLynchproof wrote:"Hey guys, otherWallPoster and I want to spend 6 pages walling at each other. If you don't want to read this exchange, help us out: Get a room: Plotinus and otherWallPoster"

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Post Post #11  (isolation #2)  » Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:56 am

In post 8, Flavor Leaf wrote:I'm afraid to hammer that Get a Room because SS and Myself for one were tied for the second highest chance of being paired as a scum team (if I am reading the chart correctly), and SS and I have pulled a crazy scum gambit early like that before.

I feel like you're trying to frame me already, haha.

Welp, might as well test the waters.

Get A Room: Something_Smart and Flavor Leaf


Not sure if you're allowed to talk about this post right away but it earns scum points from me

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Post Post #18  (isolation #3)  » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:47 am

Get a room: Plotinus, tris

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Post Post #20  (isolation #4)  » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:51 am

Why did you vote me tris?

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Post Post #41  (isolation #5)  » Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:55 am

Kind of feels strange that us 3 are getting shoved into a room that none of us asked for, without any logic behind it beyond "everybody should be in a room"

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Post Post #48  (isolation #6)  » Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:42 am

I'm not strongly against the room, it's just weird that we took this sudden change in approach. The previous rooms had people asking for them

I'd rather that people asked to be part of rooms, rather than assigning them for them. Also, do you not think that scum can pocket people inside of rooms?

I've played with your mechanic before (a long time ago) For the most part it worked out, but there was always a bit of paranoia, and people only got rooms with people they wanted to

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Post Post #56  (isolation #7)  » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:19 am

In post 53, Plotinus wrote:I agree there is no point in you having a room that you don't want and won't use.


Then why did you vote me?

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Post Post #124  (isolation #8)  » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:38 pm

In post 57, Plotinus wrote:Because you didn't answer my question. Who in this game are you interested in working together with?


It depends on how the game goes, I don't decide at the beginning of the game

In post 61, Persivul wrote:Dunn, wanna be roomies?

VOTE: Flavor


Sure

In post 109, Flavor Leaf wrote:
In post 108, Persivul wrote:
In post 107, Flavor Leaf wrote:Pretty sure you’re misrepping Plot there. He literally asked who wanted a room.

He literally assigned me to a room.


You were the last three without one. And it hasn’t even gone through.


Alright, didn't realize this earlier, so there was a purpose

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Post Post #125  (isolation #9)  » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:41 pm

In post 84, tris wrote:Also, haven't heard from Dunnstral about what he didn't like about Flavor's entrance. Is it the same as what Persivul is saying, or anything different.


That he immediately started talking about how he was worried that he was being framed and pointing out how they're likely partners

Looks more like scum wifom than something to actually ponder about

Also ss/flavor leaf is a relatively high % chance team anyway, so that ties into the wifom again

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Post Post #129  (isolation #10)  » Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:36 pm

I mean, I never even voted you, you guys were the ones who made it a big deal

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Post Post #147  (isolation #11)  » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:25 am

In post 145, tris wrote:@ Dunnstral and Persivul: You two seem to be ok with being in a room together, so why not hammer the room?


What's the rush?

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Post Post #148  (isolation #12)  » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:29 am

I didn't want to be cut out from talking about them if conversation rose up from the neighborhood forming

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Post Post #156  (isolation #13)  » Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:30 pm

Get a room: Persivul, Gamma Emerald, Dunnstral

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Post Post #182  (isolation #14)  » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:26 am

In post 140, Plotinus wrote:But instead of answering my question, he backpedalled and spread paranoia about the rooms



:shifty:

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Post Post #187  (isolation #15)  » Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:31 am

Does anybody think their room mates are more likely than average to be scum?

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Post Post #211  (isolation #16)  » Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:28 pm

In post 210, tris wrote:you haven't really been saying much here in the main thread.


Why is that an issue?

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Post Post #270  (isolation #17)  » Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:10 am

It really looks like Plotinus is the one pushing an agenda here to me

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Post Post #305  (isolation #18)  » Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:53 am

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

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Post Post #339  (isolation #19)  » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:30 pm

I'm here

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Post Post #344  (isolation #20)  » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:02 pm

I'm still here

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Post Post #345  (isolation #21)  » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:08 pm

In post 1, BulletNLynchproof wrote:If a lynch is not achieved by deadline, plurality lynching will take effect, i.e. the player with the most votes will be lynched. If there is a tie, the player who most recently had the most votes will be lynched. If no one was voted at all, the lynch will be randomised among all living townies.


Somebody help me parse this rule

Who is currently set to be lynched right now, Gamma or Persivul

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Post Post #347  (isolation #22)  » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:10 pm

Oops

Then if 3 of us voted for someone else, who would be lynched, the person we vote or the person who was at 3 votes earlier

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Post Post #348  (isolation #23)  » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:10 pm

And do you think Gamma is less likely to be scum for not having a vote here?

If he came in and voted Persivul, who would die?

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Post Post #352  (isolation #24)  » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:13 pm

In post 349, tris wrote:The one who was ahead most recently.


That's one interpretation.

If gamma came in here and voted persivul, they'd both be at 4 votes, which is the most votes (it's just tied). It's also the most recent.

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Post Post #358  (isolation #25)  » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:51 pm

Oops. Well I was here at the end

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Post Post #359  (isolation #26)  » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:52 pm

In post 353, tris wrote:I'm not confident enough on my guess that Percival is town that I would be willing to have the deflector roleblocked over it, so I would be willing to switch with you to Percival to make a majority lynch.


I might have taken you up on this, but I wouldn't have liked it, really I'd prefer to have lynched Plotinus and maybe flavor leaf/clem

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Post Post #361  (isolation #27)  » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:02 am

Plotinus seems more concerned with bringing out isolated statistics than saying what he feels about the setup

Flavor leaf hasn't said much of note the past few days leading to deadline

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Post Post #362  (isolation #28)  » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:03 am

Deflector should protect one of Ruby red/Tris ty

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Post Post #373  (isolation #29)  » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:49 am

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

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Post Post #396  (isolation #30)  » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:21 pm

Nah, I'm not posting at all

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Post Post #397  (isolation #31)  » Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:38 am

Just it's clear to me that flavor/plotinus has scum in it

I'm certain there's at least 1 there

It's up to whether SS/Ruby/Clem will vote there or not, but nobody can say anything because everyone has a post restriction or would prefer to post in their rooms so there's nothing to talk about

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Post Post #401  (isolation #32)  » Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:30 am

Get a room: Persivul, Flavor Leaf, Ruby Red

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Post Post #465  (isolation #33)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:10 pm

In post 460, Plotinus wrote:yeah.

Get a room: Nancy and Plotinus


I oppose this room strongly

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Post Post #467  (isolation #34)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:12 pm

Because Plotinus is scum and now he gets to manipulate Nancy in a pt

Scum is still in you/Plot/SS likely

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Post Post #468  (isolation #35)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:14 pm

In post 456, Plotinus wrote:That's a good point about Dunn :/ He's so scummy otherwise though ugh.

VOTE: Clemency


And this is just warming up to Nancy, I don't think Clemency is likely scum

VOTE: Plotinus

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Post Post #474  (isolation #36)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:02 pm

Keep in mind that SS never voted for that 3 person room

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Post Post #475  (isolation #37)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:03 pm

In post 473, Flavor Leaf wrote:
In post 467, Dunnstral wrote:Because Plotinus is scum and now he gets to manipulate Nancy in a pt

Scum is still in you/Plot/SS likely


You think there’s the possibility 0 scum were on the Gamma wagon?

The opposite is more true than that.


I didn't say I think the scum is you 3 exactly

But it's clear themajority of scum are in that bloc, I count on 2 being there

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Post Post #494  (isolation #38)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:29 am

Let's talk about the other mechanic. It seems scum only want to discuss the rooms and buddy up in there, while ignoring evidence to fit their agenda of a push on me (looking at Plotinus here)


X A B C D E F G H I Total
A X 1 2 6 9 3 6 1 8 36



D Clemency
E Gamma Emerald
G Nancy Drew 39
I Flavor Leaf

These are the four players I have sizeable odds of matching with, if I were scum. Gamma is dead and town. Does anybody here think that I'm scum with Nancy Drew? No? Everybodies townreading her except for SS off of her not understanding the setup? Got it, so that pair is not likely.

Does anybody think I'm scum with Flavor leaf? Interested in hearing this one.

I assume that if you think I'm scum, you think I'm probably scum with Clemency. More likely, you didn't think, and shame on you.

Now let's talk about the kill

B tris

My chance of being scum with her was 1. She wasn't leaning in a direction where she would be voting me, either. You know who else she had a low chance of being scum with, and who she wasn't pushing on? Clemency, with a 2. Why does this scum team kill Tris?

If your answer was "wifom" can you explain why we went in hard on this aspect of the setup but neglected to do much inside of/forming neighborhoods?

Now, let's look at the odds. Let's assume for a moment that Nancy is town, because her slot is obvious town. Who is most likely, statistically, to be scum right now?

So let's look at the numbers. Let's take out the numbers B and E, because they're dead. And G, because they're obvious town.

My odds of being scum drop by 16, from 36 to 20. Of course, other people drop as well, but in my case the dip is substantial. So substantial that I shouldn't even be getting votes right now by anybody who cares enough about the setup and townreads Nancy, like Plotinus.

Out of that 20, 8 of those points - that's 40% - is the pair of me and flavor leaf. If your name is Flavor leaf, and you think Nancy drew is town, that means I have a chance of 12 of being scum in yours eyes. Of course, he's not voting me, so let's get to more relevant numbers.

Speaking of which, let's look at his numbers. He started at 38, only 2 points higher than me, so we started at relatively even footing. Taking out those 3, he drops by 7. His number is now 31. He is 55% more likely to be scum than me. That's just math, and unlike the starting numbers it's too substantial to ignore. Why do you think Plotinus has ONLY talked about neighborhoods?

Incidentally, a team of Flavor leaf and Plotinus has odds of 4. If your name is Flavor leaf, and you think Nancy drew is town, that means Plotinus has a chance of 27 of being scum in your eyes.

Now, let's look at Persival. Starting chance of 41 at being scum, higher than the previous 2, but not so much that it was worth determining the lynch off this info. Take out the 3 from before, and that number drops by 19. That's 22.

If you name is flavor leaf, you have a chance of 7 of being scum with persival, Which means, in your eyes, he only has a chance of 15 of being scum.

So the numbers, unbiased, assuming nancy is town:
Me: 20
Persival: 22
Plotinus: 31

And here there are from Flavor Leaf's point of view. Again, assuming nancy is town:
Me: 12
Persival: 15
Plotnius: 27

...which begs the question:

Flavor leaf, what is your read on Nancy?

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Post Post #495  (isolation #39)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:37 am

Nancy, from your point of view, with the only assumption that you're town yourself:

Me: 14
Persival: 18
Plotinus: 29

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Post Post #496  (isolation #40)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:42 am

In post 419, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:I doubt that it makes any sense for any scum to be on the counterwagon, so Persivul wagon is probably all town.

In post 495, Dunnstral wrote:Nancy, from your point of view, with the only assumption that you're town yourself:

Me: 14
Persival: 18
Plotinus: 29


Clemency: 26
Flavor Leaf: 30

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Post Post #497  (isolation #41)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:44 am

I actually messed up the number for myself, I'm a 20 for you, I counted your number twice. Persival is a 22

So it should look like this:

Me: 20
Persival: 22
Clemency: 26
Plotinus: 29
Flavor Leaf: 30

I still think this is sufficient for you to rethink your reads

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Post Post #498  (isolation #42)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:47 am

And how about instead of listening to scummy plotinus in a 1 on 1 situation - where he's statistically, from your point of view, one of the most likely people to be scum, you come out here and play with the whole thread?

Do you see the scum motivation in Plotinus swooping in, stopping your other neighborhood from forming, and talking to you in private where he can manipulate you without other people seeing what he's doing and hiding information from you

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Post Post #502  (isolation #43)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:04 am

You guys might now be wondering if I've looked at these numbers from my point of view to influence my opinion. Nope, I haven't. I can say that I'm confident enough in my analysis of the gamestate that I'm willing to lynch past any statistical differences, and so it won't be all too insightful for me to do it personally. To put it in simple terms, even if I calculate the odds from my point of view, I trust my own reads more than any statistical analysis can provide, and I certainly trust it more than your guys reads (you guys aren't as good at this game as you think you are - As proof, none of you ever indicated that you'd stopped to think about statistical probability, you all got all wrapped up in Plotinus' distraction with the neighborhoods. This is me caring enough about the game to lay it all out on a silver platter for you guys. And no Something Smart, you don't get to come in here and prod dodge with a naked question about my reads. This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you. I don't think you're town, or if you are it doesn't matter and you can reflect on what you did wrong after I drag your dead body across the finish line.

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Post Post #504  (isolation #44)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:05 am

In post 499, Flavor Leaf wrote:I didn’t like Nancy not hammering our 3 person room. Sure, she stated she was oblivious about it, but in conjunction with that room fiasco, and already thinking Ruby was scummy, I’m lean scum on Nancy.


Alright, is there anyone you can say is confident town?

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Post Post #505  (isolation #45)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:06 am

And don't think I'm defending Clemency. I don't care if we lynch him either, and if he's scum guess what? The most likely team in the game is Clemency - Plotinus

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Post Post #507  (isolation #46)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:08 am

In post 501, Flavor Leaf wrote:I have expressed my paranoia in my rooms.


Why do you feel like I don't deserve to know about your reads?

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Post Post #508  (isolation #47)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:09 am

If you remove Nancy completely and replace it with yourself Flavor leaf, you get similar results

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Post Post #511  (isolation #48)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:13 am

Get a room: Persivul/Flavor

Get a RoomPersivul, Flavor Leaf (3): Persivul, Flavor Leaf, Dunnstral (R-0)

Not Voting (4): Clemency, Nancy Drew 39, Plotinus, Something_Smart

It takes 2n-1 votes to get a n player Room.

Persivul and Flavor Leaf have gotten a Room
Last edited by BulletNLynchproof on Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Post Post #513  (isolation #49)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:18 am

In post 501, Flavor Leaf wrote:I have expressed my paranoia in my rooms.

I feel like I’m being setup as the fall guy tomorrow. Not today, for tomorrow specifically.


My impression on you as a player is that you'd be all over these numbers if you were town, instead you seem to be dismissing it rather easily

Am I making a wrong assumption about you here?

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Post Post #523  (isolation #50)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:32 am

In post 517, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 502, Dunnstral wrote:You guys might now be wondering if I've looked at these numbers from my point of view to influence my opinion. Nope, I haven't. I can say that I'm confident enough in my analysis of the gamestate that I'm willing to lynch past any statistical differences, and so it won't be all too insightful for me to do it personally. To put it in simple terms, even if I calculate the odds from my point of view, I trust my own reads more than any statistical analysis can provide, and I certainly trust it more than your guys reads (you guys aren't as good at this game as you think you are - As proof, none of you ever indicated that you'd stopped to think about statistical probability, you all got all wrapped up in Plotinus' distraction with the neighborhoods. This is me caring enough about the game to lay it all out on a silver platter for you guys. And no Something Smart, you don't get to come in here and prod dodge with a naked question about my reads. This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you. I don't think you're town, or if you are it doesn't matter and you can reflect on what you did wrong after I drag your dead body across the finish line.


You don’t think SS is playing similarly here to Excalibur?


Not at all no, and if you think he is then that's weird since I assume the core of his gameplay is actually in rooms you don't have access to

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Post Post #524  (isolation #51)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:33 am

The setup is known

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Post Post #525  (isolation #52)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:33 am

In post 1, BulletNLynchproof wrote:This is an open setup: there are 2 Mafia Goons, 6 Vanilla Townies, and 1 Town Deflector.

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Post Post #526  (isolation #53)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:37 am

In post 518, Flavor Leaf wrote:Yeah. I don’t care too much about dealing with the numbers. It’s fine to look at, but it’s just gambler’s fallacy.


...but is it?

The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). In situations where the outcome being observed is truly random and consists of independent trials of a random process, this belief is false.

Let's see what we have here:

It's not truly random. Odds are weighted.
My talk about numbers isn't mistaken belief, the only thing that could be mistaken about that is assuming that alive players are town

This isn't gambler's fallacy, this is plain statistics, and it's real. I'd argue that the mistaken belief is that the odds don't matter. After, all, the weighted odds seem to be a substantial balancing point of the setup

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Post Post #534  (isolation #54)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:10 am

In post 531, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 529, Flavor Leaf wrote:You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.

I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.

If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.

@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.


Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.

I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.

What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?

@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.


Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?
Reread the relevant sections

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Post Post #586  (isolation #55)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:16 am

VOTE: Plotinus

Lylo

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Post Post #589  (isolation #56)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:58 am

UNVOTE:

Sure, let's figure out who our pr is. I'm VT. Percentages are skewed because you lynched and then nightkilled people you were likely to be with

Popcorn Flavor Leaf

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Post Post #620  (isolation #57)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:51 pm

In post 615, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:@Dunn, what is your read on Persivul?


Most likely town out of the 3 remaining options

In post 616, Plotinus wrote:we can all agree to wait at least 48 hours before voting, i think that's only fair.


Nope, I don't agree

VOTE: Plotinus

Flavor Leaf wrote:Plotinus tried to get me in his pocket, and then Persivul tried getting Dunnstral in his.


Neither of us are trying to pocket each other - we haven't been talking in the neighborhood since gamma died for the most part

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Post Post #630  (isolation #58)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:09 pm

In post 628, Plotinus wrote:thought so.
it's probably Dunn/flavor


Nancy was ready to vote persivul, I forced a vote on you instead. I don't see how you can think I'm scum with flavor here

Dunnstral
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Post Post #634  (isolation #59)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:15 pm

But the mafia have daytalk anyway

Dunnstral
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Post Post #637  (isolation #60)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:20 pm

:shifty:


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