Post #494
(isolation #38)
» Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:29 am
Let's talk about the other mechanic. It seems scum only want to discuss the rooms and buddy up in there, while ignoring evidence to fit their agenda of a push on me (looking at Plotinus here)
X A B C D E F G H I Total
A X 1 2 6 9 3 6 1 8 36
D Clemency
E Gamma Emerald
G Nancy Drew 39
I Flavor Leaf
These are the four players I have sizeable odds of matching with, if I were scum. Gamma is dead and town. Does anybody here think that I'm scum with Nancy Drew? No? Everybodies townreading her except for SS off of her not understanding the setup? Got it, so that pair is not likely.
Does anybody think I'm scum with Flavor leaf? Interested in hearing this one.
I assume that if you think I'm scum, you think I'm probably scum with Clemency. More likely, you didn't think, and shame on you.
Now let's talk about the kill
B tris
My chance of being scum with her was 1. She wasn't leaning in a direction where she would be voting me, either. You know who else she had a low chance of being scum with, and who she wasn't pushing on? Clemency, with a 2. Why does this scum team kill Tris?
If your answer was "wifom" can you explain why we went in hard on this aspect of the setup but neglected to do much inside of/forming neighborhoods?
Now, let's look at the odds. Let's assume for a moment that Nancy is town, because her slot is obvious town. Who is most likely, statistically, to be scum right now?
So let's look at the numbers. Let's take out the numbers B and E, because they're dead. And G, because they're obvious town.
My odds of being scum drop by 16, from 36 to 20. Of course, other people drop as well, but in my case the dip is substantial. So substantial that I shouldn't even be getting votes right now by anybody who cares enough about the setup and townreads Nancy, like Plotinus.
Out of that 20, 8 of those points - that's 40% - is the pair of me and flavor leaf. If your name is Flavor leaf, and you think Nancy drew is town, that means I have a chance of 12 of being scum in yours eyes. Of course, he's not voting me, so let's get to more relevant numbers.
Speaking of which, let's look at his numbers. He started at 38, only 2 points higher than me, so we started at relatively even footing. Taking out those 3, he drops by 7. His number is now 31. He is 55% more likely to be scum than me. That's just math, and unlike the starting numbers it's too substantial to ignore. Why do you think Plotinus has ONLY talked about neighborhoods?
Incidentally, a team of Flavor leaf and Plotinus has odds of 4. If your name is Flavor leaf, and you think Nancy drew is town, that means Plotinus has a chance of 27 of being scum in your eyes.
Now, let's look at Persival. Starting chance of 41 at being scum, higher than the previous 2, but not so much that it was worth determining the lynch off this info. Take out the 3 from before, and that number drops by 19. That's 22.
If you name is flavor leaf, you have a chance of 7 of being scum with persival, Which means, in your eyes, he only has a chance of 15 of being scum.
So the numbers, unbiased, assuming nancy is town:
Me: 20
Persival: 22
Plotinus: 31
And here there are from Flavor Leaf's point of view. Again, assuming nancy is town:
Me: 12
Persival: 15
Plotnius: 27
...which begs the question:
Flavor leaf, what is your read on Nancy?