Micro 845: The Room Odds - Game Over

[Something_Smart]

Get a room: Something_Smart and Flavor Leaf

I need this.

[BNL]

I guess I'm technically not allowed to share my comments on the room now

Ah, well, I'll do it in the PT.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, having a room you might not use is better than not having that room... we have nothing to lose by rooming at least two of Persivul/Gamma/Dunn.

And Dunn, scum can pocket people inside rooms, but it's usually harder than doing it in thread for all but the most skilled scum players (tris beware! )

[Something_Smart]

It only interferes with interaction for 96 hours per game day, but we get the rooms for the whole game.

Besides, the room mechanic is cool. Let's use it

[Something_Smart]

Everything I do is for a purpose.

[Something_Smart]

I'd like to involve myself more in the conversation but my post restriction forbids me

[Something_Smart]

Not an awful lot.

Given the fairly obvious answer Gamma's recent question to me rings somewhat hollow.

[Something_Smart]

Sup

It's the middle of the night so I can't say everything I want to say. But the first and most important thing is, I have a lot of respect for Boon as a strategist, and I love playing with him... but he's literally been scum in every game we've ever played together. So while I do want rooms just for the sake of having rooms, I especially wanted one with him.

And it did occur to me that he and I are in the highest scum slots and are also high with each other, so I don't think his frame comment was unreasonable (I thought of it myself, and he very much thinks this way), but I think the benefit that will come from us being able to discuss privately if we are both town will be worth it.

[Something_Smart]

I think it's time for more rooms... I'd prefer one with Plot but if he way to go with Flavor I can get one with someone else.

[Something_Smart]

*wants to go with Flavor, thanks autocorrect

[Something_Smart]

Get a room: Gamma Emerald, Clemency

[Something_Smart]

Get a room: Gamma Emerald, Clemency

[Something_Smart]

Sorry for the inactivity.

I'll try and do something tonight.

[Something_Smart]

Sure, I'd be down, it might motivate me to increase my activity a little

depends on my schedule though

Get a room: Something_Smart, tris

[Something_Smart]

Ruby, rooms are the whole point of the game I read this game where the rooms were used by town to devastating effect.

And Gamma, pay attention to timing and don't ask questions that can't be answered.

[Something_Smart]

Plotinus, I don't see anything wrong with your case per se. But I'm pretty sure, at the very least, him complaining about the rooms is something he'd do as either alignment.

[Something_Smart]

Hmm, if Clemency thought those quotes were real comments about this game, I'd expect he'd have stronger words to say about it than that.

[Something_Smart]

Right, Dunn is in this game.

I feel like that's a good sign?

[Something_Smart]

@Gamma Why aren't you voting anyone?

I guess this question could also be asked of Something_Smart

Don't have any strong enough scumreads

Guess I should probably check the deadline though

[Something_Smart]

Here and ready to hammer Gamma. I feel like it would be a bit shitty to jump in with a hammer after being inactive all day, so I'll at least wait a few minutes if anyone wants to say anything.

[Something_Smart]

Gonna take that as a no then.
VOTE: Gamma Emerald
Bombs away!

[Something_Smart]

Clemency might have been all right, I feel like losing town-Flavor or town-Plotinus to a shitty deadline lynch would have been a tough blow.

[Something_Smart]

Plotinus, I'd like to hear about what went on in your room with tris.

If you want to tell me in a room, I'd be down.

[Something_Smart]

Get a room: Plotinus, Something_Smart

Don't hammer this without Plotinus's approval, same as I'm not hammering the above room without Ruby's approval.

[Something_Smart]

Dunn why is Flavor scum?

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Nancy
If Plotinus, Clemency, and Flavor are all town you have an 80% chance of being scum.

[Something_Smart]

I don't know you well enough to answer that.

But based on what I saw in Excalibur there are plenty of worlds where town-you locks into a wrong read and loses the game for town.

[Something_Smart]

Who's my partner?

Dunnstral, 0.56% chance?

Or Persivul, 0.56% chance?

Your theory has a 1% chance of being true. Whereas the probability that you are town and just cleared a mafia are much higher.

And if you're willing to push a lynch based on a crackpot theory that has a prior of 1%, I will happily policy lynch you and never look back.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not voting you because I think you are scum.

I want you to change your reads.

[Something_Smart]

I can't believe you even said "VCA never lies" with a straight face.

[Something_Smart]

Is SS isn’t scum here, I have no business playing mafia anymore.

Nah, that's not true. You just need to seriously evaluate how you play.

I'm fairly confident you're town, by the way. I'm also confident that if you're not lynched today town will lose.

[Something_Smart]

So, tell me once again oh wise one, how any of the Persivul voters could possibly be scum here?

If one of them... got a red role PM?

Is this a trick question?

[Something_Smart]

Scum don't have to push mislynches if town is doing it for them.

Scum's wincon is to not die.

Scum would actually rather no mislynch gets majority.

Scum can vote whoever they want.

Your reads are awful. If you're town and alive in LYLO, it's likely you vote a townie.

[Something_Smart]

Scum won't NK you if you're going to win the game for them.

And I'm not opposed to lynching scum on the Gamma wagon. I'm opposed to locktowning everyone off it.

I guess you have a point. If literally everyone in the game agrees to ignore you completely, then we can just treat today as LYLO. But if we lynch you first, we force scum to kill someone, and nobody is really obvious town.

Here's a question. If literally every other player in this game told you you were wrong about how VCA worked, would you believe us?

[Something_Smart]

So tell me how it’s even remotely in scum’s interest to be on the counterwagon here?

Because they'd do it as town.
Because they want Persivul dead over Gamma.
Because they want to hurt town's cohesion.
Because they want to stay off a mislynch so they don't get blamed for it.

If Persivul is town scum had absolutely no fear of being lynched yesterday. They could do whatever they wanted.

[Something_Smart]

Scum let obvtown you get to LYLO if they think you'll vote a townie. It only takes ONE town player being suspected to lose in LYLO.

[Something_Smart]

I keep asking you to EXPLAIN to me, the scum motivation in scum being offwagon in a 5-3 vote, which you have yet to do.

Scum want to avoid getting caught. In order to do so, they avoid acting in predictable ways.

You have over 5000 posts. You can't honestly say you've never seen scum be off a wagon for towncred.

Furthermore, many players play scum by emulating what they would do as town. Therefore, if any of those players would townread Gamma or scumread Persivul as town, they might do it as scum.

[Something_Smart]

So you’re saying you think it was a TvT wagon? So, A) why are you convinced Persivul is town and B) who do you think was scum on that wagon?

I don't necessarily think both scum were off, but the numbers say that probably one was. I don't think we can say for sure, which is why I pushed against you when you did.

I'm not convinced Persivul is town. But I thought his interactions, especially trying to quote a room, were genuine, and since I now townread your slot if he is scum he was probably bussed which is also unlikely.

[Something_Smart]

But tell me why you’re so convinced Persivul is town, because that is the lynchpin holding your theory together.

I feel like Persivul being scum is the linchpin of YOUR theory, my theory is just that we don't know. I kind if think everything that just went down is more evidence for him being town... if he wasn't bussed, his partner is either Dunn or you, and Dunn/Persivul has a low probability.

UNVOTE:

[Something_Smart]

I don't really know who is scum. Game was pretty dead before you replaced in. Townblocking seems like the way to go, and that's my go-to method anyway. Hopefully this interaction will generate some interesting discussion in my rooms.

[BNL]

Get a room: Nancy and Plotinus

@Something_Smart now that we've had some flips, your chances of being scum with Dunnstral or Persivul has risen to a 0.91% chance each (or a combined 1.82%). I realise this doesn't detract from your point in a meaningful way but it itched.

Right, thanks for pointing that out. I was somewhat in a hurry to get my point across and it didn't occur to me.

Get a Room

Nancy Drew 39, Plotinus (3): Nancy Drew 39, Plotinus, Something_Smart

(R-0)

Persivul, Ruby Red, Flavor Leaf (2): Flavor Leaf, Dunnstral

(R-3)

Persivul, Flavor Leaf (1): Persivul

(R-2)

Not Voting (1): Clemency

It takes 2n-1 votes to get a n player Room.

Nancy Drew 39

and

Plotinus

have gotten a Room

[Something_Smart]

Well. I know it’s not me obviously but Dunn made this post, about having a tpr protect either my slot or the NK right? so why does scum!Dunn do that?

Well, could be that he didn't expect the deflector to listen to him. Could also be that he expected the deflector to deflect onto a townie if they did target tris.

I've seen scum-Dunn make the mechanically suboptimal choice just for WIFOM before, so it's not impossible that he did it here.

[Something_Smart]

Keep in mind that SS never voted for that 3 person room

I vote for a room if and only if everyone included in the room has voted for it.

[Something_Smart]

I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.

Maybe, but it's the less harmful of the two fallacies. It's much more common, and dangerous, to treat a small chance as a serious possibility. 1% = 0% for me, and I will happily accept the ~5% chance of autoloss that entails in order to help me enormously in the other 95% of cases.

[Something_Smart]

However, Nancy’ll likely obvtown if town, so I’m not too worried.

Get A Room: Persivul/Flavor

You don't think she already has?

[Something_Smart]

This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you.

What would "working with you" entail? I don't recall seeing any signs that you wanted to do that...

Do you want a room together?

[Something_Smart]

And saying that I "aided Plotinus in misleading Nancy" and then "gave a generic excuse" about it is some serious begging the question... you're assuming an ulterior motive for voting for that room, because it's completely reasonable that I'm town and have a policy of simply giving people what they want, which is a generic policy because it's a very simple one.

[Something_Smart]

Get a room: Dunnstral, Something_Smart

Nobody hammer this unless Dunn says he's okay with it.

[Something_Smart]

By the way Dunn:

Get a room: Plotinus, Something_Smart

Don't hammer this without Plotinus's approval, same as I'm not hammering the above room without Ruby's approval.

This was before the hammer of Plotinus/Nancy that I supposedly made an excuse for.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Clemency

[Something_Smart]

Someday Boon will be town in a game that I am in...

But it is not this day.