Micro 845: The Room Odds - Game Over

[Dunnstral]

Get a room: Something_Smart and Flavor Leaf

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"Hey guys, otherWallPoster and I want to spend 6 pages walling at each other. If you don't want to read this exchange, help us out: Get a room: Plotinus and otherWallPoster"

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I'm afraid to hammer that Get a Room because SS and Myself for one were tied for the second highest chance of being paired as a scum team (if I am reading the chart correctly), and SS and I have pulled a crazy scum gambit early like that before.

I feel like you're trying to frame me already, haha.

Welp, might as well test the waters.

Get A Room: Something_Smart and Flavor Leaf

Not sure if you're allowed to talk about this post right away but it earns scum points from me

[Dunnstral]

Get a room: Plotinus, tris

[Dunnstral]

Why did you vote me tris?

[Dunnstral]

Kind of feels strange that us 3 are getting shoved into a room that none of us asked for, without any logic behind it beyond "everybody should be in a room"

[Dunnstral]

I'm not strongly against the room, it's just weird that we took this sudden change in approach. The previous rooms had people asking for them

I'd rather that people asked to be part of rooms, rather than assigning them for them. Also, do you not think that scum can pocket people inside of rooms?

I've played with your mechanic before (a long time ago) For the most part it worked out, but there was always a bit of paranoia, and people only got rooms with people they wanted to

[Dunnstral]

I agree there is no point in you having a room that you don't want and won't use.

Then why did you vote me?

[Dunnstral]

Because you didn't answer my question. Who in this game are you interested in working together with?

It depends on how the game goes, I don't decide at the beginning of the game

Dunn, wanna be roomies?

VOTE: Flavor

Sure

Pretty sure you’re misrepping Plot there. He literally asked who wanted a room.

He literally assigned me to a room.

You were the last three without one. And it hasn’t even gone through.

Alright, didn't realize this earlier, so there was a purpose

[Dunnstral]

Also, haven't heard from Dunnstral about what he didn't like about Flavor's entrance. Is it the same as what Persivul is saying, or anything different.

That he immediately started talking about how he was worried that he was being framed and pointing out how they're likely partners

Looks more like scum wifom than something to actually ponder about

Also ss/flavor leaf is a relatively high % chance team anyway, so that ties into the wifom again

[Dunnstral]

I mean, I never even voted you, you guys were the ones who made it a big deal

[Dunnstral]

@ Dunnstral and Persivul: You two seem to be ok with being in a room together, so why not hammer the room?

What's the rush?

[Dunnstral]

I didn't want to be cut out from talking about them if conversation rose up from the neighborhood forming

[Dunnstral]

Get a room: Persivul, Gamma Emerald, Dunnstral

[Dunnstral]

But instead of answering my question, he backpedalled and spread paranoia about the rooms

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Does anybody think their room mates are more likely than average to be scum?

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you haven't really been saying much here in the main thread.

Why is that an issue?

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It really looks like Plotinus is the one pushing an agenda here to me

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VOTE: Gamma Emerald

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I'm here

[Dunnstral]

I'm still here

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If a lynch is not achieved by deadline, plurality lynching will take effect, i.e. the player with the most votes will be lynched. If there is a tie, the player who most recently had the most votes will be lynched. If no one was voted at all, the lynch will be randomised among all living townies.

Somebody help me parse this rule

Who is currently set to be lynched right now, Gamma or Persivul

[Dunnstral]

Oops

Then if 3 of us voted for someone else, who would be lynched, the person we vote or the person who was at 3 votes earlier

[Dunnstral]

And do you think Gamma is less likely to be scum for not having a vote here?

If he came in and voted Persivul, who would die?

[Dunnstral]

The one who was ahead most recently.

That's one interpretation.

If gamma came in here and voted persivul, they'd both be at 4 votes, which is the most votes (it's just tied). It's also the most recent.

[Dunnstral]

Oops. Well I was here at the end

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I'm not confident enough on my guess that Percival is town that I would be willing to have the deflector roleblocked over it, so I would be willing to switch with you to Percival to make a majority lynch.

I might have taken you up on this, but I wouldn't have liked it, really I'd prefer to have lynched Plotinus and maybe flavor leaf/clem

[Dunnstral]

Plotinus seems more concerned with bringing out isolated statistics than saying what he feels about the setup

Flavor leaf hasn't said much of note the past few days leading to deadline

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Deflector should protect one of Ruby red/Tris ty

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VOTE: Flavor Leaf

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Nah, I'm not posting at all

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Just it's clear to me that flavor/plotinus has scum in it

I'm certain there's at least 1 there

It's up to whether SS/Ruby/Clem will vote there or not, but nobody can say anything because everyone has a post restriction or would prefer to post in their rooms so there's nothing to talk about

[Dunnstral]

Get a room: Persivul, Flavor Leaf, Ruby Red

[Dunnstral]

yeah.

Get a room: Nancy and Plotinus

I oppose this room strongly

[Dunnstral]

Because Plotinus is scum and now he gets to manipulate Nancy in a pt

Scum is still in you/Plot/SS likely

[Dunnstral]

That's a good point about Dunn :/ He's so scummy otherwise though ugh.

VOTE: Clemency

And this is just warming up to Nancy, I don't think Clemency is likely scum

VOTE: Plotinus

[Dunnstral]

Keep in mind that SS never voted for that 3 person room

[Dunnstral]

Because Plotinus is scum and now he gets to manipulate Nancy in a pt

Scum is still in you/Plot/SS likely

You think there’s the possibility 0 scum were on the Gamma wagon?

The opposite is more true than that.

I didn't say I think the scum is you 3 exactly

But it's clear themajority of scum are in that bloc, I count on 2 being there

[Dunnstral]

Let's talk about the other mechanic. It seems scum only want to discuss the rooms and buddy up in there, while ignoring evidence to fit their agenda of a push on me (looking at Plotinus here)


X A B C D E F G H I Total
A X 1 2 6 9 3 6 1 8 36



D Clemency
E

Gamma Emerald

G Nancy Drew 39
I Flavor Leaf

These are the four players I have sizeable odds of matching with, if I were scum. Gamma is dead and town. Does anybody here think that I'm scum with Nancy Drew? No? Everybodies townreading her except for SS off of her not understanding the setup? Got it, so that pair is not likely.

Does anybody think I'm scum with Flavor leaf? Interested in hearing this one.

I assume that if you think I'm scum, you think I'm probably scum with Clemency. More likely, you didn't think, and shame on you.

Now let's talk about the kill

B tris

My chance of being scum with her was 1. She wasn't leaning in a direction where she would be voting me, either. You know who else she had a low chance of being scum with, and who she wasn't pushing on? Clemency, with a 2. Why does this scum team kill Tris?

If your answer was "wifom" can you explain why we went in hard on this aspect of the setup but neglected to do much inside of/forming neighborhoods?

Now, let's look at the odds. Let's assume for a moment that Nancy is town, because her slot is obvious town. Who is most likely, statistically, to be scum right now?

So let's look at the numbers. Let's take out the numbers B and E, because they're dead. And G, because they're obvious town.

My odds of being scum drop by 16, from 36 to 20. Of course, other people drop as well, but in my case the dip is substantial. So substantial that I shouldn't even be getting votes right now by anybody who cares enough about the setup and townreads Nancy, like Plotinus.

Out of that 20, 8 of those points - that's 40% - is the pair of me and flavor leaf. If your name is Flavor leaf, and you think Nancy drew is town, that means I have a chance of 12 of being scum in yours eyes. Of course, he's not voting me, so let's get to more relevant numbers.

Speaking of which, let's look at his numbers. He started at 38, only 2 points higher than me, so we started at relatively even footing. Taking out those 3, he drops by 7. His number is now 31. He is 55% more likely to be scum than me. That's just math, and unlike the starting numbers it's too substantial to ignore. Why do you think Plotinus has ONLY talked about neighborhoods?

Incidentally, a team of Flavor leaf and Plotinus has odds of 4. If your name is Flavor leaf, and you think Nancy drew is town, that means Plotinus has a chance of 27 of being scum in your eyes.

Now, let's look at Persival. Starting chance of 41 at being scum, higher than the previous 2, but not so much that it was worth determining the lynch off this info. Take out the 3 from before, and that number drops by 19. That's 22.

If you name is flavor leaf, you have a chance of 7 of being scum with persival, Which means, in your eyes, he only has a chance of 15 of being scum.

So the numbers, unbiased, assuming nancy is town:
Me: 20
Persival: 22
Plotinus: 31

And here there are from Flavor Leaf's point of view. Again, assuming nancy is town:
Me: 12
Persival: 15
Plotnius: 27

...which begs the question:

Flavor leaf, what is your read on Nancy?

[Dunnstral]

Nancy, from your point of view, with the only assumption that you're town yourself:

Me: 14
Persival: 18
Plotinus: 29

[Dunnstral]

I doubt that it makes any sense for any scum to be on the counterwagon, so Persivul wagon is probably all town.

Nancy, from your point of view, with the only assumption that you're town yourself:

Me: 14
Persival: 18
Plotinus: 29

Clemency: 26
Flavor Leaf: 30

[Dunnstral]

I actually messed up the number for myself, I'm a 20 for you, I counted your number twice. Persival is a 22

So it should look like this:

Me: 20
Persival: 22
Clemency: 26
Plotinus: 29
Flavor Leaf: 30

I still think this is sufficient for you to rethink your reads

[Dunnstral]

And how about instead of listening to scummy plotinus in a 1 on 1 situation - where he's statistically, from your point of view, one of the most likely people to be scum, you come out here and play with the whole thread?

Do you see the scum motivation in Plotinus swooping in, stopping your other neighborhood from forming, and talking to you in private where he can manipulate you without other people seeing what he's doing and

hiding information from you

[Dunnstral]

You guys might now be wondering if I've looked at these numbers from my point of view to influence my opinion. Nope, I haven't. I can say that I'm confident enough in my analysis of the gamestate that I'm willing to lynch past any statistical differences, and so it won't be all too insightful for me to do it personally. To put it in simple terms, even if I calculate the odds from my point of view, I trust my own reads more than any statistical analysis can provide, and I certainly trust it more than your guys reads (you guys aren't as good at this game as you think you are - As proof, none of you ever indicated that you'd stopped to think about statistical probability, you all got all wrapped up in Plotinus'

distraction

with the neighborhoods. This is me caring enough about the game to lay it all out on a silver platter for you guys. And no Something Smart, you don't get to come in here and prod dodge with a naked question about my reads. This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you. I don't think you're town, or if you are it doesn't matter and you can reflect on what you did wrong after I drag your dead body across the finish line.

[Dunnstral]

I didn’t like Nancy not hammering our 3 person room. Sure, she stated she was oblivious about it, but in conjunction with that room fiasco, and already thinking Ruby was scummy, I’m lean scum on Nancy.

Alright, is there anyone you can say is confident town?

[Dunnstral]

And don't think I'm defending Clemency. I don't care if we lynch him either, and if he's scum guess what? The most likely team in the game is Clemency - Plotinus

[Dunnstral]

I have expressed my paranoia in my rooms.

Why do you feel like I don't deserve to know about your reads?

[Dunnstral]

If you remove Nancy completely and replace it with yourself Flavor leaf, you get similar results

[Dunnstral]

Get a room: Persivul/Flavor

Get a Room

Persivul, Flavor Leaf (3): Persivul, Flavor Leaf, Dunnstral

(R-0)

Not Voting (4): Clemency, Nancy Drew 39, Plotinus, Something_Smart

It takes 2n-1 votes to get a n player Room.

Persivul

and

Flavor Leaf

have gotten a Room

[Dunnstral]

I have expressed my paranoia in my rooms.

I feel like I’m being setup as the fall guy tomorrow. Not today, for tomorrow specifically.

My impression on you as a player is that you'd be all over these numbers if you were town, instead you seem to be dismissing it rather easily

Am I making a wrong assumption about you here?

[Dunnstral]

You guys might now be wondering if I've looked at these numbers from my point of view to influence my opinion. Nope, I haven't. I can say that I'm confident enough in my analysis of the gamestate that I'm willing to lynch past any statistical differences, and so it won't be all too insightful for me to do it personally. To put it in simple terms, even if I calculate the odds from my point of view, I trust my own reads more than any statistical analysis can provide, and I certainly trust it more than your guys reads (you guys aren't as good at this game as you think you are - As proof, none of you ever indicated that you'd stopped to think about statistical probability, you all got all wrapped up in Plotinus'

distraction

with the neighborhoods. This is me caring enough about the game to lay it all out on a silver platter for you guys. And no Something Smart, you don't get to come in here and prod dodge with a naked question about my reads. This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you. I don't think you're town, or if you are it doesn't matter and you can reflect on what you did wrong after I drag your dead body across the finish line.

You don’t think SS is playing similarly here to Excalibur?

Not at all no, and if you think he is then that's weird since I assume the core of his gameplay is actually in rooms you don't have access to

[Dunnstral]

The setup is known

[Dunnstral]

This is an open setup: there are 2 Mafia Goons, 6 Vanilla Townies, and 1 Town Deflector.

[Dunnstral]

Yeah. I don’t care too much about dealing with the numbers. It’s fine to look at, but it’s just gambler’s fallacy.

...but is it?

The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). In situations where the outcome being observed is truly random and consists of independent trials of a random process, this belief is false.

Let's see what we have here:

It's not truly random. Odds are weighted.
My talk about numbers isn't mistaken belief, the only thing that could be mistaken about that is assuming that alive players are town

This isn't gambler's fallacy, this is plain statistics, and it's real. I'd argue that the mistaken belief is that the odds don't matter. After, all, the weighted odds seem to be a substantial balancing point of the setup

[Dunnstral]

You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.

I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.

If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.

@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.

Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.

I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.

What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?

@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.

Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?
Reread the relevant sections

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Plotinus

Lylo

[Dunnstral]

UNVOTE:

Sure, let's figure out who our pr is. I'm VT. Percentages are skewed because you lynched and then nightkilled people you were likely to be with

Popcorn Flavor Leaf

[Dunnstral]

@Dunn, what is your read on Persivul?

Most likely town out of the 3 remaining options

we can all agree to wait at least 48 hours before voting, i think that's only fair.

Nope, I don't agree

VOTE: Plotinus

Plotinus tried to get me in his pocket, and then Persivul tried getting Dunnstral in his.

Neither of us are trying to pocket each other - we haven't been talking in the neighborhood since gamma died for the most part

[Dunnstral]

thought so.
it's probably Dunn/flavor

Nancy was ready to vote persivul, I forced a vote on you instead. I don't see how you can think I'm scum with flavor here

[Dunnstral]

But the mafia have daytalk anyway

[Dunnstral]