Mini 2039: uPicketyPicketyPick Mafia Endgame
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Succinct Goon
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Succinct Goon
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See sig.In post 3134, Gamma Emerald wrote:Whomst the fuck
Reading's preferred, yet impractical: too time-consuming. Content now > reading.In post 3134, Gamma Emerald wrote:Have you not read anything yet?
Any objections/alternative takes to 3136? Using it otherwise as summary.- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Unlikely, given difficulty of smoothly integrating.In post 3136, mutantdevle wrote:So if you could do something to give me a conclusion one way or the other then that would be great.
Isoed the mod; saw Nico crying gif. Was undeniably Nico herself.In post 3136, mutantdevle wrote:During the night phase, nico was almost lynched but then someone prevented it from happening.
Links to these specific areas? (Exact claims, starting+end points of described situations.)In post 3136, mutantdevle wrote:Nico is a miller. Kokichi can unlock someone else's minigame role PM if they win a minigame. MariaR is almost* death proof and can become fully death proof if they get into any PT.
Gamma was then the most popular wagon because he did something scummy that I can't remember at this point but then firebringer tried to hammer with his triple vote but failed because he didn't meet the right conditions to triple vote.
NK15 almost got lynched after that but some of us defended him so then a lot of people switched to Kokichi but because firebringer's vote again didn't count as triple Kokichi wasn't lynched and the night phase ended in a no lynch.- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Why was this excluded?In post 2377, NicoRobin wrote:I am a bodyguard.
Doubtful.In post 2382, NicoRobin wrote:
Well, I didn't do it.In post 2380, mutantdevle wrote:Nico did you do that yourself or did someone else prevent your lynch?
Kokichi Oma = Firebringer> mutantdevle > Chibibear > Not Known 15>northsidegal>NicoRobin = MariaR>Gamma Emerald >Elbirn
Elbirn read takes explaining.
Manipulative neighborhood + RC's 2399 + Elbirn's posting where I've read. Plus current.- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Your neighborhood content's manipulative of Nibbui. 13, 15, 17, 20, 21, 29, plus 30's rolefishing.
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Succinct Goon
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Firebringer, where he's pushed + role circumstances + sheeping RC.In post 3168, northsidegal wrote:why are kokichi and firebringer your strongest townreads?
Kokichi, mostly gut + posts like this.- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Yes; it's a reasonable viewpoint I buy as genuine, regardless of its accuracy.In post 3172, northsidegal wrote:In post 1697, Kokichi Oma wrote:I don't know, but a scum flip by nico would be good. Considering she hasn't posted much, she could be scum.
you think these are reasons to townread kokichi?In post 1699, Kokichi Oma wrote:she doesnt post much as scum- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Mostly, sheeping mutant.In post 3174, northsidegal wrote:i am interested to hear your reasoning on nk15 being town- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Nice try, but you're well aware Nibbui's original targetIn post 3176, Elbirn wrote:I imagine succinct/nibbui slot targeted NSG for the NK, then redirected onto RC due to RC's claim of enabling an ascetic/redirector effect, and I'm embarrassed at how long it took me to consider that. And then embarrassed that I held onto this sekrit of mine for so long, but I'm frankly timid af and considered it a tin foil hat conspiracy and not a definite thing but here now you all get to know because succinct bothers mewasRC.
Only w/ rest of PT. Gimme sec.In post 3180, Gamma Emerald wrote:Can you paraphrase?
Not sheeping you due to being mutant. Sheeping you because agreeing w/ your reasons when posted.In post 3193, mutantdevle wrote:Have I had much interaction with your main account?
Beginning of D2.In post 3196, Not Known 15 wrote:Wait. They got added in last night?- Succinct
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Confirming name.In post 3199, Elbirn wrote:Its "The Twilight Zone"
OP lists members of PT.
1: Elbirn shitpost (game irrelevant), plus "hi Nibbui"
2: Nibbui reciprocates, adds question: "Anything you don't want to say in the main thread?"; compliments shitpost.
3: Asks what Elbirn meant by having night interactions with Elbirn; states role isn't important (Nibbui was mistaken), targeted RC, hypothesized Firebringer did, wanted it explained.
4: Elbirn states he's got cards close to chest; states membership means Nibbui didn't target who they thought. States if Nibbui's claiming watcher, it wasn't on RC. (Incidentally, Nibbui received a Detective result, in spite of it not being part of Nibbui's role.) Promised to mull it over.
5: Elbirn quotes 2589; asks how Nibbui knew.
6: Nibbui said it was obvious conclusion off of "night actions", once Elbirn spoke. Nibbui noted the weirdness of their night action, wondering if it was redirection; asked to know who they were redirected to, promising it'd be useful.
7: Elbirn acknowledges confusion, states Nibbui's probably town, admits possible mistake, decides to talk it out. Claims not redirector-type role; flavor-claims primary Kurt Vonnegut, power socialism. Targets two players, if one has minigame power and other doesn't, they're swapped. Secondary, Rod Serling; quest of when someone's redirected, unlocks his power. Tertiary, Satoshi Kon.
Explained desire to complete Rod Serling; mentioned that RC stated actions targeting NSG would target RC. Stated confusion to why, but targeted NSG and Chibibear, expecting RC<>Chibi switch. Deduced this succeeded via RC flip/Chibi receiving hers. Rod Serling power was neighborhood. Anyone redirected's automatically added to hood.
8: Elbirn guessed Nibbui was a tracker. Hypothesized seeing someone visit RC. Said redirector could be town, but he didn't see how it'd fit.
9: Nibbui enjoyed Kurt Vonnegut, power socialism, stating intent to respond to rest.
10: Nibbui said everything's confusing; refused to nod/deny deductions, but stated Elbirn was close. (It's debatable.)
11, Nibbui stated Chibi could be scum.
12: typo correction of 11.
13: Elbirn stated it was possible and he was considering it (this was the red flag) and said he trusted NSG while wondering why Nibbui scumread her.
14: Nibbui said they'd already explained both.
15: Elbirn said NSG was softing a cop inno. (I felt that was a misleading narrative.)
16: Nibbui stated they stopped already; while wanting an answer, didn't get one but still dropped it anyway.
17: Elbirn says it's good, apologizes for being aggressive. Stated frustration at people questioning her, bringing attention to it; said the best thing to do would not be draw attention to NSG's cop inno or ascetic modifier. Said Fire/Chibi/Not Known/Kokichi/Maria contained scumteam. (This entire post was controlling.)
18: Nibbui's POE was Kokichi/Maria/Chibi, outside chance Not Known.
19: Nibbui slightly doubted mutant's townness.
20: Elbirn said they were on same page; stated "not sure if plan is turboing Kokichi or what". Specified wanting to twist Maria's arm due to disbelieving town gets two deathproofs and her claim being being "fucky". (This was also manipulative.)
21: Elbirn points out her reads lack scumreads, asking if it's obvious or if he's making a mistake. (This felt like a move to gain trust.)
22: Nibbui stated paranoia of NSG, but play acceptable; notes she needs to not disappear, and it could just be Maria. Feels Maria's play may be too poor from scum-Maria.
23: Nibbui noticed 21 as well, wasn't sure, pointed out Chibi's on the fence, later joining it when wagon exists: not wanting to push on her own.
24: To 22, Elbirn said no experience w/ playerlist; too much time shitposting not playing, so not sure what skill level is. To 23, stated too timid, notes there should be some sneaking suspicion. Acknowledges lost townies/town not confident in reads, but on a different level. Yet specifies it's too obvious and wonders how bad scum would be. (Hmm, add this to the list of suspicious posts.)
States when she pushed RC, she was confident and it looked good.
25: Nibbui (rightly) asked Elbirn why he unlocked Chibi if she wasn't a confident townread and was actually a scumread.
26: Elbirn states the suspicion comes from this day phase, and he makes bad decisions. States he's not even sure, vulnerable to AtE, feeling bad bothering her.
27: States D1 townreads were RC, Chibi, maybe Gamma; had to take RC's role, and Chibi > Gamma.
28: Nibbui asks if anything from chat shouldn't be revealed, promising not to out role. (Sorry, paraphrasing PT breaks this.)
29: Elbirn states he doesn't like being cagey, but some things he wants on his chest. Said knowing there's a PT is fine, which one is not or that it was created by him. This plus asking the NSG bit to be hush-hush were suspect.
30: Elbirn rolefished, asking about Nibbui's actions last night regarding Fire targeting RC. Stated that due to redirect, could be possible guilty (it's absolutely not; if anything, is opposite).
There's 5 more posts, but not ones I found suspect after.- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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You understand my suspicion, yes?In post 3214, mutantdevle wrote:I can't tell if that line of thinking from Elbrin is scummy or just stupid.
I didn't. Only 13, 15, 17, 20, 21, 24, 29, + 30. Rest were fine.In post 3228, Elbirn wrote:I legitimately cant see how someone reads all of that and so confidently reaches the conclusion of "all of this is bad".- Succinct
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Hold, please. I may have a serious townbloc. Need to confer in private.In post 3285, NicoRobin wrote:No one around anymore?
I've reason to believe I wasn't redirected last night, yet have a surprising result.- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Fill the replacement in here.In post 272, RadiantCowbells wrote:I am in multiple neighbourhoods.
Which players were this?
I know one was Firebringer.
Who were the others?- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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This is apparently a hood of nsg/Gamma/RC.In post 3288, Succinct wrote:
Fill the replacement in here.In post 272, RadiantCowbells wrote:I am in multiple neighbourhoods.
Which players were this?
I know one was Firebringer.
Who were the others?
If so,
northsidegal = Gamma Emerald = Elbirn = mutantdevle> ChibiBear = Kokichi Oma>Not Known 15 = NicoRobin
VOTE: NicoRobin
Even if not a POE scumread, day before lylo's good day to lynch miller claim.- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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I'll claim, then.In post 3290, northsidegal wrote:why do you consider all of that hood town
I have an ability which checks to see if my target is in any PT containing scum.
N1 I targeted RC. Nibbui, Elbirn, and myself initially believed I was redirected, but thanks to mutant we have reason to believe my initial RC target was accurate.
N2 I targeted Elbirn. mutantdevle's in the neighborhood now as well.
Both results were negative; no scum in any of target's PTs. This conftowns you and Gamma via RC, and mutant/Elbirn via Elbirn.
Ergo, we have a POE pool of four possible scum, and a mislynch to spare.- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Did you actually lose access, or was it simply locked?In post 3299, northsidegal wrote:RC and I both lost access to gamma's private thread, though exactly when i don't recall – i'm not sure if it was at the end of day one or later.- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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While the PoE pool is four total players, I personally disagree with the idea Kokichi's caught scum.In post 3316, mutantdevle wrote: Kokichi is caught scum and we've managed to produce a townblock of 5. The PoE pool besides Kokichi is only 3 people and with a mislynch to spare we're headed towards a guaranteed victory.
Not Known 15, though?
Seems fairly caught.In post 3318, Not Known 15 wrote:That means... IF Succinct is town then the Mafia are Chibi, Kokichi(who lied with the IC claim) and Nico Robin.... let me check something... No there is something still wrong here.
ChibiBear and Kokichi Oma is an unlikely scenario. Either Succinct is lying or they were redirected or... or we have a godfather.
Because Nico+Kokichi/Chibi is entirely possible I cannot rule out Succinct being town and suffering from a godfather.
Succinct could also be mafia, and then all these clears are fake.
It should, yes.In post 3317, mutantdevle wrote:
Good. The inno result still counts for both you and Gamma then.In post 3315, northsidegal wrote:according to jjh i was removed on the turn of the second day rather than at night 1- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Kokichi claims IC in many games.In post 3330, Elbirn wrote:@Succinct, kokichi lied about being an IC. That's a confirmed scum right there.
I knew it was a lie from moment I replaced in. It's nai.- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Not worth digging up, as I'm willing to lynch there. (See my theory in PT.)In post 3332, Elbirn wrote:Examples?
I didn't. 3336 isn't an unreasonable stance.In post 3333, Not Known 15 wrote:and you rule out a godfather?
And I've explained why I don't care about that. Kokichi's IC fakeclaim was nai, but Kokichi's in poe pool. I previously believed he was the most likely town of them (thus, was willing to lynch him but preferred elsewhere). However, my PT theory's changed my mind; now he's a preferred lynch.In post 3340, mutantdevle wrote:I've even explained to you why I'm unhappy with you trying to push the lynch away from Kokichi.- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Similar math holds for chance of godfather. 12/13 chance Gamma's not godfather * 11/12 chance person he adds isn't godfather * 10/11 chance person he adds isn't godfather = 77% chance of no godfather recruited.In post 3346, mutantdevle wrote:
10/13 chance Gamma is town * 9/12 chance the first person he adds is town * 8/11 chance that the second person he adds is town = 42% chance that everyone in the PT is town * 3/11 chance that Nibbui picked someone in the PT = 11% chance Nibbui got the result * 7/8 chance that Nibbui even lived to tell anyone = 9% chance that this could have happened. That's based on the information we know alone. There's obviously going to have been other things that could have reduced the chances this could have happened. Eg. the chances that the person selected is in multiple PTs.In post 3343, Not Known 15 wrote:The likelyhood of a Night 1 triple Innocent is high enough(Gamma +2; and town are in the majority) in this setup.
Statistically, odds favor treating clears as real clears.- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Before N1's end, Nibbui's iso's as accessible to you as it is to me and no less readable.In post 3357, Gamma Emerald wrote:Did Nibbui leave any notes to why she picked RC?
After N1's end,In post 2625, Nibbui wrote:@Gamma was NSG actively engaging Radiant on the hood?In post 2634, Nibbui wrote:spicy, but Radiant said as well that people wouldn't be able to target NSG. I can be wrong here but since you can't be night killed, it woudn't be anti-town to reveal a bit more of that role right? It's a bit weird for a town role to be honest, but I only have a very low-resolution idea of it.In post 2640, Nibbui wrote:But for example, he said that you couldn't be investigated for the rest of the game independent of him being alive or not NSG? Is that due to Radiant or a third party as well? Or is that part of your own role?In post 2647, Nibbui wrote:
because hers seemed to be a primary role, and added to the fact of being unkillable, RC said not even investigative roles could target her. As a whole her role is pretty different from yours, and you seemed to need a PT to activate it as well.In post 2644, MariaR wrote:
Why do you find hers weird but not mine.In post 2634, Nibbui wrote:spicy, but Radiant said as well that people wouldn't be able to target NSG. I can be wrong here but since you can't be night killed, it woudn't be anti-town to reveal a bit more of that role right? It's a bit weird for a town role to be honest, but I only have a very low-resolution idea of it.In post 2651, Nibbui wrote:MariaR, who is in your hood anyway? It would help at solving the game.
Plus PT,In post 3070, Nibbui wrote:The reason I was worried with being redirected on night and that was the first thing I talked on the hood with Elbirn is because in night 1 while the thread was open, Elbirn said to Radiant that they would have "some night interactions" and confirmed that it wasn't a vig. I doubt any investigative would claim that so openly therefore I thought he meant he was a redirector or something (not sure how these roles are called really), and I got a weird-mysterious-random night action that isn't part of my original role, and wondered if someone had tried to unlock someone else second role and eventually got redirected to me since I explicity told that I didn't want mine unlocked. (and I don't think my second role is actually unlocked? idk what the hell was the random NA).
I'm only explaining because I can see my replacement coming here, Elbirn making his tinfoil case whatever it may be, and my replacement getting lynched because he couldn't explain why I had behaved like I did in the hood, and it would be even more shitty since for anyone that knows how I play, I've been very townie here.
That's all I can find; the knowledge's lost to Nibbui.In post 3210, Succinct wrote:3: Asks what Elbirn meant by having night interactions with Elbirn; states role isn't important (Nibbui was mistaken), targeted RC, hypothesized Firebringer did, wanted it explained.
6: Nibbui said it was obvious conclusion off of "night actions", once Elbirn spoke. Nibbui noted the weirdness of their night action, wondering if it was redirection; asked to know who they were redirected to, promising it'd be useful.
10: Nibbui said everything's confusing; refused to nod/deny deductions, but stated Elbirn was close. (It's debatable.)
To be added to the PT, you must target someone you didn't intend. Logical initial conclusion's redirector role. However, mutant's joining situation suggested otherwise, for reasons best left undisclosed.In post 3361, ChibiBear wrote:Succinct, if you don't mind answering, why did you initially think you were redirected on N1? And how did mutant confirm that you weren't redirected?
I only get 'target has no scum in PTs' or 'target has scum in PTs'; a player with none's automatically the former.In post 3361, ChibiBear wrote:Also, if your target is not in a PT, would you get a different result, like 'no result' rather than a positive or a negative?
Several. Caught Nibbui's/my soft inno-claim, FB's roleclaim, Elbirn frameup, FB was obvtown, etc. Impossible to narrow down.In post 3366, Elbirn wrote:Anybody have any ideas why scum shoots firebringer last night?- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Disappointed? Must mean my entry didn't win.In post 3368, jjh927 wrote:I'll sort out the minigame tomorrow but I'm just gonna say I'm disappointed
Nibbui softed inno before I did; I continued, e.g. 3170.In post 3369, Elbirn wrote:Can you elaborate re:soft inno claim? I didnt see this and am only now having the realization that if RC was in a pt with fb then you/nibbui would have had an inno on him. I'll check myself but if you have a post link to a crumb..
At time, wasn't aware of Gamma/nsg/RC hood, and thought I was redirected.In post 3370, Elbirn wrote:Succinct, I see the crumbs in your 3170 and 3210 for the record. But I wanna ask about this
1. Why was kokichi an equal townread to someone you had an inno on?In post 3163, Succinct wrote:
Why was this excluded?In post 2377, NicoRobin wrote:I am a bodyguard.
Doubtful.In post 2382, NicoRobin wrote:
Well, I didn't do it.In post 2380, mutantdevle wrote:Nico did you do that yourself or did someone else prevent your lynch?
Kokichi Oma = Firebringer> mutantdevle > Chibibear > Not Known 15>northsidegal>NicoRobin = MariaR>Gamma Emerald >Elbirn
Elbirn read takes explaining.
Manipulative neighborhood + RC's 2399 + Elbirn's posting where I've read. Plus current.
2. Wasnt gamma in a PT with RC and NSG N1? And therefore also clear?- Succinct
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Succinct Goon
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Loss's my fault.
I told neighborhood I was vengeful; the hope was to bait the nk with them thinking I couldn't shoot if nked.
I anticipated I could be redirected, but thought if I was, I wouldn't be nked.
I didn't expect beingbothkilled and redirected; Ishouldhave.
Disagreed on mechanical traps. I suspected Elbirn/Gamma before I learned both were clear, and the townbloc created was potentially devastating. It was mostly play. I only suspected mutant as a NK15/Nico partner; I'd not have pegged him as scum otherwise. Chibi was poe scum but otherwise looked town. Scum simply looked town more than town (barring Nico).In post 3406, jjh927 wrote:That said, town kinda self-destructed a lot in spite of having plenty of strong players, and THEN fell into a couple of the mechanical traps that were in place. - Succinct
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