Mini 2039: uPicketyPicketyPick Mafia Endgame

[northsidegal]

Wait, can we infer that MariaR is town from her quest? Since mafia would already be in a PT.

probably not, the quest could very easily be "be added to another private topic" or something along the same vein. it's also possible that getting into a PT isn't part of her quest at all and is actually some element of her main role

although i am somewhat inferring that you're town from this post

VOTE: nk15

[northsidegal]

Nevermind

Pedit: Hey that's what I was about to guess!

I don't really see why that would be a scum quest in particular though.

what were you saying nevermind to?

[northsidegal]

VOTE: nk15

is there a reason for this?

-shrug-

i townlean you, mutant, and also maybe gamma. i figured that out of everyone who had posted so far, voting NK15 would be the most likely to have some sort of effect in helping sort him (along with his entrance being just sort of awkward enough for me to want to do so)

[northsidegal]

yeah, a few games i think. i vaguely remember him overreacting to votes or something along those lines (i didn't really check)

[northsidegal]

it was barely ever a "reaction test" in the first place, i just felt like voting someone and NK15 seemed like a good choice. the fact that i'm actually voting him and think that his entrance was awkward enough to warrant a vote has also not changed, so he's still that much actually closer to a lynch

[northsidegal]

i got my wiki up to date if you want to do more reading.

[northsidegal]

can't really activity tell you in the first 12 hours of a game. and despite what i said there, i didn't actually end up doing that.

[northsidegal]

i pretty strongly believe that all of nibbui, mutant and elbirn are town, with lighter townreads on gamma and chibi.

and i think you're all being a little quick to townread varsoon (although i'm very much glad that the posting restriction isn't something that's going to keep being there all game, both in terms of the readability of the game and in terms of varsoon's readability, of which i am confident in my abilities)

i somewhat agree with elbirn's 186 and i can already tell that my ratio of out-of-game work to in game posts will probably be higher than normal

[northsidegal]

-shrug-

it's just something of a tone read, i guess. i liked 96 as feeling natural. i'm certain it's not a good thing to townread things like this, but i also think 185 typically comes from town.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: fire

[northsidegal]

i look through my iso all the time to look at how amazing i am of course

[northsidegal]

2. You are not a good player and can not discern my alignment accurately despite a huge amount of content to base a read off of.

do you think it's fair to say that your responses to literally every post in that wall you made are your "normal" content that people should be reading you off of? i myself would always have lynched you if you kept posting like that. didn't you also say yourself that you were kind of fluffing hard in a lot of places?

[northsidegal]

do you think varsoon is scum, firebringer?

[northsidegal]

nibbui i think you're being silly and scumreading a mindset that you maybe just don't understand

i don't think we should be letting kokichi win at all, but if he did win then it should be town who collectively decides who he gives the second unlocking to

[northsidegal]

elbirn why would you rather have it that kokichi pick himself rather than it being decided by vote?

[northsidegal]

the winner of a minigame this time will always keep it for themselves

kokichi is the only one who, if he wins, will be able to also unlock someone else's minigame role PM.

with that in mind, if he's the one to win i would prefer that the one he unlocked was decided collectively rather than by himself. do you think it would be unreasonable to suspect someone who picked someone else after explicitly offering to let town decide his pick?

[northsidegal]

So if I win the mini game. Whose 2nd role PM does everyone want me to unlock

So are we all in agreement I should win so I can unlock someone who we TR role?

Which is why im.asking for a vote on who is towniest.

[northsidegal]

did you miss jjh's part about there being no millers

i thought you were just rvs joking around with the miller claim

21. There will be 10 town and 3 mafia. Nobody will be a Ninja or Miller.

[northsidegal]

was going more for tricking nico than anyone else, haha (nor was i trying to impersonate jjh)

gotcha

[northsidegal]

although i do think varsoon's reaction is a town one

[northsidegal]

{northsidegal}
{Nibbui, mutantdevle}
{Gamma Emerald, ChibiBear}
{Elbirn, Varsoon}
{NK15, Maria, RC, Kokichi, NR} - null
{Firebringer}

[northsidegal]

i went to bed early and woke up early to start it as soon as the list was released, but i overslept a little bit

i think if i had started exactly when it was released i could've beat rc

[northsidegal]

if i have it correctly as to what you're trying to do, varsoon: you really shouldn't be.

[northsidegal]

i did it in roughly 35-40

[northsidegal]

You know how someone wins this shit in 30 minutes?
They crack a plan with their team that each of them solves 15 scavenger hunt items then one person submits the list.
If he had on-the-ball help from town neighbors that are pocketed into the plan, it's even easier.

The only other way someone does that shit in 30 flat is if they're literally camping the thread for the game reveal in order to snipe it AS FAST AS POSSIBLE

You know who co-ordinates that level of making sure other people don't get power?
Scum.

I saw it happen before in a game that I modded.

i think this is a pretty ridiculous argument. the argument that nobody could have completed it in 30 minutes without help seems pretty baseless to me (and also like some kind of sports / game related fallacy that i've seen a lot before, but the name of which doesn't come to mind)

are you trying to say that town would not also be interested in winning the minigame? because by its very nature, anyone who wins the minigame will be "making sure other people don't get power". i also took very real actions to give myself the best shot of winning the minigame – are you arguing that it makes me scum?

[northsidegal]

How though reeeee.

the power of knowing how to use a search engine

(also, my typing has gotten a lot faster over the past year)

That comes out to 47 seconds per question.
I can't fathom.

a really decent amount of questions are answered with a single google search and probably the first result (like most of the image ones) – others could just be a matter of memory (for example, i already knew a game in which the scumteam surrendered, so i didn't have to look one up)

[northsidegal]

"RC got his scumbuddies to help out" – who else was even online at the time? who else would have agreed to and been active enough to wake up (depending on timezones obviously) or camp out the thread just to help him?

"RC manipulated neighbors to do it" – is there anyone in the game townreading RC enough for this to be possible? i haven't gotten that impression from anything that i've read.

@NSG: Scum has much more incentive to hoard the power for themselves by sniping the minigame as fast as possible.

i will agree that scum has

an

incentive to win the minigame as fast as possible – i would argue that town has this exact same incentive, however.

If you had gotten the prize in 35, yeah, I'd be fucking critical of you, too, but you also don't have an apparent VAST HIDDEN NETWORK OF PRIVATE COMMUNICATION and haven't DISAPPEARED FROM THE FUCKING GAME while somehow being TOWNREAD BY PEOPLE WHO AREN'T EVEN INTERACTING WITH YOU IN THE MAIN GAME THREAD

Oh wow it's almost like RC's pulling a bunch of strings in a really duplicitous way away from PRYING EYES.

who are you referring to with the "townread by people who aren't interacting with you" line?

[northsidegal]

If the rest of the minigames are timed shit, there's no point in playing them if RC can just clear them all in 20 minutes and give the rewards to whoever the fuck he wants.

would you never play tennis just because venus williams could beat you?

[northsidegal]

although, maybe that's not a fair comparison.

[northsidegal]

-shrug-

it's just something of a tone read, i guess. i liked 96 as feeling natural. i'm certain it's not a good thing to townread things like this, but i also think 185 typically comes from town.

If Varsoon makes another wall post or anyone quotes one again I'm replacing out. I dont know what kind of stupid bullshit this is but I refuse to believe that any mod gives the post restriction of "you have to quote and reply to EVERY post". I also flat out refuse to read any of those because the ratio of meaningless noise to actual information is astronomical. I'm on mobile and it takes me a few minutes to just scroll past them, let alone bother to read them, and I couldn't even reply until we got to a page without a wall on it because there was so much fucking text on my screen that it slowed my phone to a crawl and only allowed me to type about 1 character per 5 seconds.

So yeah that's basically where I'm at thanks for letting me rage I love you all but no seriously stop it

here was him poking fun at me for townreading you for 185

he's somewhat right in that i would consider that post from him to be mildly scum indicative. apart from that i also think that a lot of the way that he talked to varsoon earlier today seemed like he actually knew he was town while he was meant to be scumreading him – for example, telling him to stop doing things that'll make the game worse in some way (e.g. more toxic) whereas i would imagine that someone scumreading varsoon would simply point to those things and say "these are scum motivated".

[northsidegal]

that's fair and i don't think that doing that is something that you shouldn't do as town or that always comes from scum

[northsidegal]

i didn't really take it as AI one way or the other. i don't really have much of a theory for how you would approach me as scum vs as town, although i would say that i wouldn't really expect you to scumread me if you were scum.

[northsidegal]

i feel like most people who are relatively familiar with me typically don't scumread me unless i'm playing a particularly lurky game. i also think that most people who are relatively familiar with me would rather try to pocket me and "work with me" or something similar rather than antagonizing or distancing themselves from me.

i also -imagine- that you are the type of person who, as scum, might keep people around just based on enjoying their presence, perhaps moreso than for any strategic reason. would you disagree?

[northsidegal]

NSG's townread on Varsoon also feels wrong and the Firebringer scum Varsoon spewed town read feels really lazy,

"spewed town"?

as do like the rest of her reads. She townread the usual suspects (TM) faster than I think she would have as town

who are "the usual suspects"? why would i take longer to townread them as town? do you mean mutant and nibbui?

when it comes to nibbui, i feel like this is literally the exact same situation we're having as micro 801, if you remember that game. if not, if you go back to look at it you should see the massive amount of similarities that i'm referring to.

and her complete avoidance of the Varsoon situation except to attack Firebringer for trying to break it up gives me bad feels (tm) especially when she's willing to locktown Varsoon cuz spewed town by fire but I am equally spewed town by the same set of interactions and just nah nullreads from nsg

1. How would you say that i've specifically "avoided" varsoon?
2. Saying that i "attacked" firebringer for trying to bring it up seems pretty ridiculous to me. for one, the conversation that i was referring to when i was talking about my scumread on fire happened more than a day ago at the time i was describing it – whatever your theory, my intent couldn't have possibly been to dissuade him somehow from talking to firebringer. i also don't really think i'm the type of person who as scum would come up with scumreading someone (firebringer) for scumreading my buddy just to get them to stop doing it, as it seems like you believe

3. I'm not willing to "locktown" varsoon and especially not because he's "spewed town by fire".

Nowhere

do I ever recall saying either of those things.

[northsidegal]

prodging

will read as soon as i can

[northsidegal]

i promise to read up and become invested in this game again later tonight

in the meantime could someone say a really stupid reason for me being scum or something so that i have something to respond to when i come back

[northsidegal]

VOTE: nk15

[northsidegal]

not good.

[northsidegal]

a lot of reasons

[northsidegal]

hi. i'm reasonably confident that there are three scum out of the four of {elbirn, maria, kokichi, nk15}.

i invite any disagreement.

[northsidegal]

Nibbui, mutantdevle and Chibi I think are all very strongly town based on their own play, and I don't think anyone disagrees. Firebringer I trust that RC was right on. Nicorobin is town. I also think GE is lightly town based on his own play, but I admit that that's a read that I would be categorically likely to be wrong on.

[northsidegal]

i mean.

it helps that i know for a

fact

that RC is town. i don't think that causes a massive shift, though – i already thought that he was town and would have trusted his read on you.

i will say that the fact that he was killed has only strengthened my resolve to not let this PoE die or get disrupted.

[northsidegal]

why? RC thought maria was strongly scum.

[northsidegal]

i dont necessarily agree with ur poe pile but i think maria is unlikely to kill rc? maybe i am wrong but even if she is unlikely to kill him she could easily just let her scum teammates decide actions...

what exactly do you disagree with?

why u townreading Nico? I don't have anything one way or another.
I would say same for gamma but i think we agree on being meh on him.

she's town.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: kokichi

[northsidegal]

hi. i'm reasonably confident that there are three scum out of the four of {elbirn, maria, kokichi, nk15}.

i invite any disagreement.

I want to know why? Cause it seems like you just lumped low posters together. You're better than this and not lazy.

i explain my reasoning quite clearly in my very next post.

[northsidegal]

I think something everyone should be focusing on is the night voting that took place yesterday, especially with the knowledge that nicorobin is town. The main question I'm trying to figure out is the alignment relationship between NK15 and Maria/Kokichi

Something interesting to note is this, which happened immediately after votes for Nico were declared invalid:

I think Kokichi is a solid lynch. It's certainly better than trash wagon and lurker lynch. I personally have my eye on them because he seems to be pretending not to care too much about the game which I've seen him do twice before as scum.

I think that is the only lynch that could happen this phase except my own and Kokichi could be scum. We are still running out of time.
VOTE: Kokichi Oma

this is basically the first mention of kokichi in NK15's entire ISO, whom he votes from zero, ignoring RC who was at 1 vote already and whom he seemed to scumread. we know that RC was town now, so if we consider a potential scum!NK15, what was he trying to accomplish by voting kokichi over a townie who was already at one vote and might have been easy to mislynch here?

[northsidegal]

Nibbui, mutantdevle and Chibi I think are all very strongly town based on their own play, and I don't think anyone disagrees. Firebringer I trust that RC was right on. Nicorobin is town. I also think GE is lightly town based on his own play, but I admit that that's a read that I would be categorically likely to be wrong on.

this doesn't explain the scumreads. also why is nico town?

They're not scumreads, it's a PoE pool. Not to imply that I don't think any of you are scum – I do.

[northsidegal]

Votecount #14:

Player	Votes	Voters
Not Known 15	6	Firebringer, Gamma Emerald, northsidegal, Kokichi Oma, Nibbui, MariaR
Kokichi Oma	4	Not Known 15, Elbirn, RadiantCowbells, ChibiBear
Not voting	---	NicoRobin, mutantdevle

While we're on this track, we need to consider this vote count here. Let's assume Kokichi is scum for a moment: what does this say about the rest of the playerlist? Given the composition of his wagon, unless the other scum is something like {NK15, Elbirn}, I'll assume that Kokichi isn't being bussed by both members of the scumteam. That implies that his partners are primarily on the NK15 wagon.

Does this point to NK15 being town? I'm not so sure. I think it's possible that there's a world in which NK15 was the designated bus but a Kokichi counterwagon arose – in some sense, it would explain the strange Kokichi vote that NK15 made directly after the nico wagon collapsed. He could have known that he was going to die and wanted to distance in his final moments.

[northsidegal]

Let's assume NK15 is town. Why didn't the wagon on him go through? While there are a number of possibilities and really anything is possible, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that it would probably be because there was no scumteam member off-wagon to hammer. That would imply that all three members of the scumteam were already on the NK15 wagon. Taking into account my pre-existing reads, that would imply Gamma to be the third scumteam member of a Maria/Kokichi scum pair.

not sure i really have a central point here, just sort of exploring avenues of thought to see if anything meaningful pops up.

[northsidegal]

Because he saw mutant voting him. and what were his other options to vote at the time. i think he's pocketing mutant btw.

That's not possible. Mutant's vote came before NK15's. What were his other options? How about RC?

Votecount #14:

Player	Votes	Voters
Not Known 15	6	Firebringer, Gamma Emerald, northsidegal, Kokichi Oma, Nibbui, MariaR
Kokichi Oma	4	Not Known 15, Elbirn, RadiantCowbells, ChibiBear
Not voting	---	NicoRobin, mutantdevle

While we're on this track, we need to consider this vote count here. Let's assume Kokichi is scum for a moment: what does this say about the rest of the playerlist? Given the composition of his wagon, unless the other scum is something like {NK15, Elbirn}, I'll assume that Kokichi isn't being bussed by both members of the scumteam. That implies that his partners are primarily on the NK15 wagon.

Does this point to NK15 being town? I'm not so sure. I think it's possible that there's a world in which NK15 was the designated bus but a Kokichi counterwagon arose – in some sense, it would explain the strange Kokichi vote that NK15 made directly after the nico wagon collapsed. He could have known that he was going to die and wanted to distance in his final moments.

Okay, can you break this down with the thought that I'm town? (for devil's advocate)

Sure, just give me a second. I want to actually put some thought into it.

[northsidegal]

Also NSG, you used to be confident that you could read me. What's changed. You actively used to try to figure out my alignment and right now you're just pushing me in a POE pool, which is a bit weird based on the games we've played together that you've never just tried to POE me.

Not a lot has changed, I just think that this game you haven't put out that much AI content in isolation such that I don't townread you, but I don't have a slam dunk scumread on you.

As for 2546, I really don't think Chibi is scum and I don't want to spend time reevaluating that read before I spend time working on sorting out more high priority reads. I will say that in the post you quoted she's explaining reasons for NK15 being town which doesn't seem to imply a scumread on him as you say.

That's not possible. Mutant's vote came before NK15's. What were his other options? How about RC?

Mutant stated he'd vote me. So, that's as good as putting a vote down. and come on, do you think NK15 could get RC lynched there? no way.

Eh, that's possible. And yes, I think RC could've very easily been mislynched there with the right momentum – there were some votes towards him during that phase already anyways. NK15 may not have needed to

drive

his wagon, but just putting his vote there could've been enough.

I will ask you this, though – it almost seems to me like you're justifying NK15's vote on you or something. Could you clarify exactly what you mean in this post?

Because he saw mutant voting him. and what were his other options to vote at the time. i think he's pocketing mutant btw.

what conclusions are you coming to exactly?

[northsidegal]

strangely enough i am actually coming around to nk15 town

which leaves me with the really interesting question of just what was going on with the wagons at the end of the night there?

[northsidegal]

i see. so let's say he's scum. why didn't his wagon go through yesterday? where were scum voting? you've already said that you think it was on you and you've made your suspicion of chibibear clear, but what else does it imply?

[northsidegal]

strangely enough i am actually coming around to nk15 town

which leaves me with the really interesting question of just what was going on with the wagons at the end of the night there?

Why nk15 town? His vote was obviously self saving and had no thought in it. as I just explained.

it doesn't relate to the VCA at all – it's just based off of his play overall this game. i don't think NK15 has much of an ability to actually play a scumgame, so i'm not sure if he could have made all of the "cases" and such he's made this game (i.e. 2288)

it's a preliminary read

[northsidegal]

man, i really wish at least one of those night wagons had gone through

[northsidegal]

Chibi sounds good but I have not that much confidence there, but there are other slots to be looked at right now.

Also, Idk what to do with kokichi, but now I noticed how he sort of lacks engagement on reading people in this game.

Like I said to kokichi earlier, I'm not all that paranoid of Chibi right now. Why do you think she could be scum? It's possible I need to do a closer reread, but from what I've read it's felt like she's playing to her towngame.

hi. i'm reasonably confident that there are three scum out of the four of {elbirn, maria, kokichi, nk15}.

i invite any disagreement.

I disagree. I'd switch NK15 out for Nibbui.

I

very

much doubt that Nibbui is scum here. Why do you think he is?

Nicorobin is town.

Based on what?

Mutant, we've played together in more than a few games by now. Can you trust in me enough to believe me when I say that she's town? I have 100% confidence in this.

[northsidegal]

Not Known 15 is fundamentally lynch bait due to the way he plays. Often his posts consist of his raw thoughts as he thinks of them which leads him to post a lot of half-formed or outright wrong conclusions. This gets him in trouble and he can easily be framed as mafia. The fact that no one can point to anything scummy that he's done outside of his lynch baity nature tells me that everyone who has voted for him is either falling for that lynch bait or are mafia trying to get an easy lynch. On top of this, I expect NK15's scum game to be very very noticeable. I've never seen his scum game, but he strikes me as someone who would often slip. It's alright saying that he's scummy because what he is saying doesn't make sense, but NK15 doesn't make sense. What you should be questioning is "does this make sense for NK15". And if you asked me that question about any of his posts this game then I'd say yes, it does make sense for him. I feel that I've played enough games with NK15 and witnessed his logic first hand that I know what makes sense for him. In almost all of his posts he explains his logic. You can track back what made him think certain things. If you can't, then you question him. He'll be able to explain because he plays an honest game. So you'd know he is scum when he's playing dishonestly.

In short, think of it as this: People are voting for NK15 for purely lynch bait reasons. You cannot be lynch bait if you aren't town.

i actually really like this logic and can add onto it myself the knowledge that in NK15's scumgame (from what i've seen) he really can't replicate the kind of posts that he's made this game

like i think i pointed out to kokichi earlier, i don't think nk15 could make a massive case like the one he made on nibbui as scum

[northsidegal]

VOTE: NSG
That was the dumbest night kill and seeing NSG try to take advantage of it right away speaks volumes.

People who were in RCs poe don't just kill RC to conf his said poe.(At least I wouldn't and I don't think people are dumb enough to do that) So it came from people not in said poe or enough scum outside it

Let's consider the last line here (I have things to say in response to the rest of the post, but I'll leave them for later).

I don't think what you're saying makes sense. Let's consider that scum are in RC's PoE. What's the best way to stop that from being pushed and silence someone who would push that PoE? Obviously it would be to kill the person who has it – the effects of someone being alive to actually push and talk about something are

far, far

more dangerous to scum than simply killing someone to "confirm" their PoE.

I think this is common sense and nearly indisputable: in basic mafia games like mountainous, a

lot

of scum's power comes from being able to silence the good townies or the people they don't want speaking. Far, far less people are inclined to consider a dead townie's reads than they are to consider the reads of someone alive and actively pushing something.


I mean, let's even consider the start of this day already: it's possible I'm overlooking something, but as far as I can remember I am the only person to independently bring up his reads, and any other discussion about it has simply been responding to me (don't mean to come off as arrogant or anything here or say i'm somehow better, just trying to prove a point). In fact, a lot of people have come in with reads that run directly

counter

to what RC's reads were – in practice, what you're saying has pretty much already been proven wrong.

[northsidegal]

So, you think I'm scum, Maria?

[northsidegal]

While on this track I’d like to note since RC was NKed scum likely didn’t plan to ML him

i don't mean to be rude here, but don't you think that seems a little obvious? maybe there's something i'm missing – what conclusion would you come to from that information?

what are your reads right now, gamma?

[northsidegal]

My conclusion is that Nibbui prolly isn’t scum
Also thinking Kokichi’s defending the NK is a bit scum indicative as I generally do that as scum

that's actually an interesting point on nibbui and one that i agree with. nice one! i didn't get it for a second at first, so for anyone else who doesn't – scum very rarely kill the same people that they're pushing for a lynch unless some kind of unforeseen circumstances arose when discussing who to nightkill.

do you have reason to believe that kokichi does that as scum or are you just speaking form personal experience there

[northsidegal]

NSG I believe in you and I wish you could have played like this Day 1

i wish i could have played like this day one too. there's actually just a lot of things that have come together very specifically right now to cause this shift:

• My V/LA is coming to a close and all of the real life stuff i've been busy with for a while is winding down
  
• With RC dead, i feel a need to step up and be more active in pushing my reads. Me and RC had basically the same poe at the end of the day yesterday so I was basically just playing in the neighborhood for a long time
  
• I didn't scumread Varsoon but I wasn't going to fight RC on it. That's out of the way now.
  
• I can't die so I don't need to worry about getting nightkilled.

and finally, i realized that i'm not going to passively sit by, not push my reads and let town lose, which is basically the entire reason for why i lost the last two towngames that i've lost, as well as for why i nearly lost some of the last few towngames that i still won.

[northsidegal]

right now i think the core of {Maria, Kokichi} almost always contains two scum and it's just a matter of actually nailing down who the third is when i'm starting to doubt that any of GE, NK15 and Elbirn are scum

[northsidegal]

Addendum to 2612 – it's not

impossible

that scum who were being townread by RC would decide to kill him there with the motivation being to cement his reads such that he couldn't change his mind on them being town. That's certainly a real motivation. What I think is that you can't unilaterally declare that scum isn't in the PoE just because he was killed. It's possible that the motivation was actually two-fold: to stop pushes on scum in the PoE and to cement townreads on scum whom he may have been townreading.

Anyway, If both you and mutant are saying that NK15 doesn't play like this as town, I'll buy it for now, either because if you're town you are likely right and because if you're scum I don't know if you would say this about your buddy. Maybe but not likely for me.

You don't have to just take me on faith for this (like i would like you to do on nicorobin) – in fact, it would make me feel more confident if other people took a look at NK15's scumgames too and said what they think.

I'm not saying nk15 is locktown never lynch here, just that i think there's reason to believe he's town here such that we should focus on other people in the PoE first.

@NSG and Gamma: is this the post in question?

I dont know that I see this as AI. Why does scum make this post? How proud to you have to be to defend your own nightkill?

i mean, i can't say i really agree with gamma on the "defending the nightkill" idea, i was saying that his point on nibbui was pretty good.

[northsidegal]

Feel free to ignore me if explaining is anti-town. How is this? RC claimed some things I didnt quite follow and if you could dumb it down for me like I'm 5 that could help me a LOT

I suppose I can be lynched (theoretically of course), but I can't be nightkilled (or, to my knowledge, targeted by anything at all during the night).

@Gamma was NSG actively engaging Radiant on the hood?

Not really. RC suspected NSG for not posting much in the hood iirc

i think this is a pretty bad characterization

the question isn't "was i active in the hood or not" because i was inactive for this game entirely for period of time (periods of time during which, i might add, there were times i posted in the hood and didn't post in the thread)

the question is was i talking to RC in the hood or not. and i mean, not to be rude, but i wasn't talking to you all that much in the hood – it was almost all with RC.

[northsidegal]

Wait a second why do MariaR and NSG have the same utility

i'm only unkillable because of RC.

[northsidegal]

spicy, but Radiant said as well that people wouldn't be able to target NSG.

I can be wrong here but since you can't be night killed, it woudn't be anti-town to reveal a bit more of that role right?

It's a bit weird for a town role to be honest, but I only have a very low-resolution idea of it.

it's not part of my role. there's no more information that i know that i can tell you other than i cannot be killed at night.

[northsidegal]

i think it's just that rather than being bulletproof, it's something like i commute at night and just can't be targeted at all

[northsidegal]

VOTE: MariaR

[northsidegal]

nibbui, it's interesting to me that you seem to be scumreading me now more than you ever were before today, when in my mind i would imagine that someone would have the exact opposite reaction

i'm interested to hear a bit more of your thought process, although if you feel like it's not something to worry about today and you might change your mind then you don't have to explain if you don't want to

[northsidegal]

I take back wanting to ever touch Nico she can be town.

any particular reason for the switch?

[northsidegal]

are you... dying soon?

[northsidegal]

like, sooner than the end of today?

[northsidegal]

I'm actually having basically the exact same problem as you nibbui, apart from the core of {maria, kokichi} i'm a little lost when it comes to who the third should be and eventually i will probably need to seriously consider where i may have gone wrong

until such a time comes though, i'm not sure how much i should worry about it

[northsidegal]

This is just too obvious and it doesn't quite glue together for me to be honest. Maybe one of them but the two...?

They don't feel like scum together. At least not together.

I don't think you should ever dismiss someone as scum for being "too obvious" unless you have really good reasons to supplant why someone as scum wouldn't be "too obvious". i had a game recently where someone recognized a huge number of reasons that i was putting forward for someone being scum, but then said "there's no way that he would make it that obvious if he were scum".

sometimes i think you should just keep it simple and see what happens – if you end up needing to search for a more deeply hidden scum later on, then you do so at the time, but not

before

lynching the people who you already recognize as likely to be scum.

[northsidegal]

oh, and i'm interested to hear why you think they're not aligned

[northsidegal]

yeah, i haven't really been trying to give reasons for you being scum yet because i haven't been trying to convince people yet. right now my main focus is on clarifying my poe when it comes to the people i'm not all that convinced on: NK15, Elbirn, GE, maybe even firebringer.

by the way, just to clear this up in case anyone was confused – there are exactly two things that i am sheeping RC on that were not my own original thoughts: firebringer being town and elbirn being in consideration as scum. everything apart from that is my own reasoning. me and RC agreed on much of the rest, yes, but that doesn't mean that i'm just playing off of his reads. i'm not.

[northsidegal]

i would argue that nk15, chibibear and nicorobin are all slots that could be called "obvious lynches". maaybe elbirn, too, although i'm still not sure if he's town. i think you can see both maria and kokichi trying to include them in the sort of public lynchpool today:

VOTE: Chibi
I could do NK15 Nico too

Spoiler: Kokichi

strangely enough i am actually coming around to nk15 town

which leaves me with the really interesting question of just what was going on with the wagons at the end of the night there?

Why nk15 town? His vote was obviously self saving and had no thought in it. as I just explained.

Nibbui, mutantdevle and Chibi I think are all very strongly town based on their own play, and I don't think anyone disagrees. Firebringer I trust that RC was right on. Nicorobin is town. I also think GE is lightly town based on his own play, but I admit that that's a read that I would be categorically likely to be wrong on.

this doesn't explain the scumreads. also why is nico town?

Ugh, we're running out of time.

I dunno, I think that I was slightly townleaning Kokichi earlier because I feel like scum wouldn't ultra focus on the minigames and ignore everything else like he did, but I'm not sure how valid a 'read' that really is. He actively avoided taking a stance on the 1v1 and during tonight he seems to be jumping on the most popular wagons, which I'm not too sure about but it's not necessarily scum motivated? If he really is town and telling the truth though, then we could be lynching a pretty big potential asset, but even if that’s the case, I'm not entirely sure that I'll ever trust him enough to allow him to use his ability without question. I don't think his claim is a lie as it’s so easily provable, but I reckon it's entirely possible that it is a half truth and there's more to it. At the moment my read on him is null at best.

If NK15's strange logic is characteristic of his play regardless of alignment then he's gonna be a pain to sort with any kind of certainty. His push on Nibbui is very interesting though, would scum start a push against a widely townread player? Or rather more importantly, does his push seem genuine? At the point where he started pushing Nibbui, there were already quite a few votes on him, I feel like if he were scum looking to get out of a lynch, he wouldn't decide to go for Nibbui of all people, I think that his push is more likely than not to be genuine.

Ughhhhhhhh I'm taking a stance here I guess, feels bad to just waste Elbirn’s ability.

VOTE: Kokichi

This is a weird post because she states that she's running out of time. Implying that the vote on me is because it's running out of time. Then explains that her read on me is null at best, and nk15 is scummy based on the push she feels like is not genuine. At the point of this vote, NK15 had 6 votes, and if she was serious about being upset about running out of time, I don't see why she would vote me in that moment when I had less votes and she null read me and scumread nk15. I feel this post needs an explanation and I'm surprised no one else pointed it out. NK15 flips scum, this would be my next lynch

keep in mind that i'm not calling them scum just for voting these players (at least, i'm not saying that right now), i'm just saying that if you imagine the world in which Maria/Kokichi are scum, you can see evidence that the narrowing of the lynchpool is something that they're fighting back against.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: Chibi
I could do NK15 Nico too

@Maria, could you explain this read? you literally haven't mentioned chibi once in your ISO before this.

you said you wanted to get your nico townread out before death. who else do you townread? who are your nullreads?

[northsidegal]

that second quote for kokichi was a bad example of what i was talking about, these are better ones:

Spoiler:

I don't know, but a scum flip by nico would be good. Considering she hasn't posted much, she could be scum.

she doesnt post much as scum

kokichi this is what i have seen in ur iso so far, tell me what u think is townie or if i got anything wrong:
> you talking about ur role or mechanics [NAI]
> you arguing with someone about meta [NAI]
> you voting but not talking about the reasons you scumread or are voting [NAI]

please tell me what i am missing that is townie or indicative of alignment. Cause I think you not reading or having any thoughts on players or having a thought process that seems to be developing thoughts is scummy

Okay, then what do you think about what i just posted. And I explained the reasons why I thin Nico is scum. She low posts and scum all the time, she did it when I was scum with her. She posts a lot as town and actually has emotion behind the posts.

[northsidegal]

(assuming you were talking to me) i don't think you're an obvious lynch nor do i think you're scum, i was just saying that other people whom i believe could be scum seem to be making an effort to remove your status as a townread and chip away at the rapidly-forming townblock

[northsidegal]

NSG, I'll clap for you if you're scum here you know?

I'm feeling the towniness coming from you. I'm not sure if I'm not just getting smoothly pocketed though.

haha, the day i manage to play a scumgame like this i'll let you know.

[northsidegal]

I think one of the biggest issues people are having is they're taking people by the rep and using it as an excuse to not lynch them like.
Is Nk15 an easy lynch
Is Nico an easy lynch
Maybe even chibi an easy lynch.
Yes. So what? That doesn't stop them from having a chance at being scum and you shouldn't fault people for pushing that. I think it comes down to the reasoning why you push that player that's important.

Who do you think is doing this? If you're going to say mutantdevle, I think the crux of his argument is that people's

only

reason for wanting to lynch nk15 is his lynchbait tendencies, and that people don't have any reasons outside of that.

Also to answer your question NSG Chibi is null as can be right now I was mostly voting for a reaction to see if they'd do anything to help and I'm not getting that.

Did you expect a reaction from your naked vote? If yes, what does it say to you that you didn't get one?

[northsidegal]

I think you just did it and I think it's also in the back of some peoples minds just in general.

my argument has never been that someone is town just because they're lynchbait. i think that nk15 is town because of differences between the game he's playing here and previous scumgames of his – specifically, i believe there are certain things he's done this game that he could not replicate as scum, based on past games in which he

has not

replicated those actions as scum.

[northsidegal]

Who out of Maria and Kokichi you do think it's most likely to flip scum?

right now i would probably say maria, although it's still something i'm trying to figure out. it shot pretty sharply from being kokichi to being maria as soon as she entered with a vote on me: as simplistic and OMGUS-esque as that sounds, there's deeper reasoning to it: Maria pretty strongly believes that i have zero capacity to play scum and sub out of every scumgame that i roll, so it's pretty unbelievable to me that she would enter today voting me like that and even later still not be convinced that i'm town. she

did

vote me yesterday when i was less active, but her reasoning was based on "[my] tone and overall approach to the game" not being town, which i similarly find hard to believe, especially given that she brings up Nicorobin's lurking meta in the exact same post.

Also, can you explain a bit your town read on me?

i guess at first i would call it a tone read mainly, just in that you seem like you actively care about figuring things out and sorting the game whereas in the scumgame that i'm primarily using for comparison, micro 801, despite a proclaimed excitement to play the game due to the playerlist you didn't seem all that engaged or like you were actually enjoying solving (speaking primarily from memory here)

beyond that, i agree with what gamma noticed in that i think it's unlikely that scum!you kills RC when you had your whole push on him unless you were somehow convinced by a scumbuddy or some other shenanigans went on (but again, i don't think you're scum in the first place so that line of thinking kind of collapses)

i don't know. i got basically the same feeling at the start of the game that i did as soon as you replaced in to the coalition – i just feel like it's the kind of early read that i'm unlikely to be wrong on.

[northsidegal]

So basically the lowest posters are scum. Got it.

I mean, you can try to discredit my scumread like that but i've pretty strongly called nico town, so your theory kind of falls apart. If you're town I expect you to recognize that.

[northsidegal]

after that page i have very little doubt on chibibear being town and would be very surprised if i were wrong

i'm beginning to think perhaps i should rethink firebringer being town. my current poe looks like:

{Fire, Elbirn, Kokichi, Maria}

[northsidegal]

Maybe it's [Kokichi, MariaR, Mutant]. Really.

If I'm wrong on someone maybe the last scum is NK15?

Elbirn isn't impossible but I don't feel it right now.

thoughts on firebringer? where's your elbirn read coming from (not doubting it or anything, just want to hear your thoughts)?

[northsidegal]

explain why you think elbirn is sheeping chibi, fire?

[northsidegal]

NSG look at Kokichi/Mutant interactions.

am I being delusional here or there's some potential there?

i guess i'll take a look. it's possible that i've been misreading mutant this whole game – if i were to be misreading any of my strong townreads, i would probably put it at him. even still, i somewhat doubt it.

it would help convince me if you said what you saw there, though, rather than just leaving me to try to figure out what you're seeing (no snarkiness intended here as much as it sounds like it)

NSG dont do this I'm like your biggest fan

Pedit: Nibbui shhhhh

sorry. i townread you earlier and gut don't scumread you, but it's just a matter of formality and keeping dead townie's reads in mind for me. (are you actually my biggest fan?)

also, side note – it seems i have more "fans" or people who seem to really trust in my ability lately, and it's a little strange for me. i never really expected it.

[northsidegal]

i actually really like this logic and can add onto it myself the knowledge that in NK15's scumgame (from what i've seen) he really can't replicate the kind of posts that he's made this game

like i think i pointed out to kokichi earlier, i don't think nk15 could make a massive case like the one he made on nibbui as scum

So why were you on his wagon?

I hadn't had any of the realizations that I've had now before – you can see my progression from the start of the day when i still was considering him as a serious scum suspect to here and here where i started to realize that he might be playing to his towngame to agreeing with you in the post you quoted.

NSG, by the way, I may have amnesia but I don't remember you answering me about your read on Nico. Is it mod confirmed info? Or is it by play?

I think NSG is purposely dodging this question.

And I don't see why tbh. She literally can't be night killed so I don't understand why she would withhold any sort of information from us, especially mechanical stuff. That's what makes me so hesitant to town read her. The only reason she'd refuse to tell us where this read came from would be if she thinks she would be lynched for it. That's not necessarily scummy, sure. But since I don't see how anything NSG could tell us about how she reached this conclusion would be scummy it makes me question why she'd refuse to tell us in the first place and without an answer I just can't put my trust in her.

I think it's selling things a little short to say that the "only" reason that i could possibly not reveal something is because i would be worried about getting lynched. There are a few things I want to go through here: for one, in general i think i'm someone who's far more reluctant to claim things than the average person on MS. In my mind, it benefits only scum for me to reveal the nature of what i'm talking about. Plus, allowing ambiguity about the nature of what i'm talking about also allows for – I think – better scumhunting. I think everyone could agree that getting to see pushes from people on someone whom I know to be town offers me more information than the alternative, no?

This is actually

really

similar to what just happened in RC's large theme game that just finished, where even though i was conftown due to a parity cop, people still got antsy and even suspected me just because i didn't claim. Let's be clear – if you suspect me for not making things clear, in your mind I am scum who:

• Has decided to make this whole deal for nicorobin for some reason
  
• Cannot possibly come up with a believable fakeclaim (this isn't true)
  
• For some reason cannot just say or will not just say "I have an incredibly reliable towntell on her"

Like, I don't know. I feel like I deserve a bit more credit in that imagining a scenario in which I'm scum doing this also carries with it the implicit assumption that i'm

really dumb

and can't do this. The simpler explanation is that i just actually have real reasons. Sure, I'm certain post-game or even later in the game people will say that i made a mistake in doing what i'm doing and that i was being dumb now, but that doesn't change the fact that i

do

have real reasons.

[northsidegal]

My gut scum read on Day 1 was Fire but I'm now starting to wonder if it's really mechanically likely that a scum player would be given a freaking triple vote, even if that triple vote is dependent on a town player's actions.

This logic is heavily flawed since the triple vote was entirely dependent on the actions of someone who was town and it's confirmed that this role did indeed exist without restriction but hey if your bad logic makes you town read FB then I'm not going to tell you to think otherwise. Keep doing as you do.

You strongly townread firebringer? Could you go into that a little bit?

i'm beginning to think perhaps i should rethink firebringer being town.

Is your reevaluation of FB simply because your lynch pool felt too small or what?

Something like that. It's also because I'd like to avoid getting blindsided by a read that i think could be for poor reasons – I scumread firebringer earlier in the game and the only reason I ever put him as town is because RC had him as town and i think that RC is generally pretty good at reading him, although for my own peace of mind i'd like to make sure for myself on that read.

Sorry really busy. Anyone have any questions about my poe? Quote this and ask

Could you talk a little bit about your reasoning on why those people are in your poe? Even if it's just one or two sentences for each person.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: Kokichi

Back here. Not doubting Maria being scum, just think i'm more confident on Kokichi now.

[northsidegal]

Ok I'm outing. I got an IC as my role unlocked last night. I can use it tonight. Lynch gamma

What was your quest, assuming by last night you mean last in-game night?

Or did you mean your minigame role?

[northsidegal]

I want to quick lynch Kokichi right now to be honest because that IC claims sounds too fishy but he is confirmed scum next day if he doesn't get confirmed as town.

pretty much exactly my thoughts.

[northsidegal]

also nibbui i'm not going to ask you to explain more but if anyone finds themselves in a hood the creation of which neither player is responsible for it may not be a good idea to share role info: that could be an "eavesdropper" role, like the one kokichi had in this game

[northsidegal]

i think maria is a fine vote.

VOTE: maria

[northsidegal]

@Kokichi

Ok I'm outing. I got an IC as my role unlocked last night. I can use it tonight. Lynch gamma

What was your quest, assuming by last night you mean last in-game night?

Or did you mean your minigame role?

[northsidegal]

Nk15 is scum trying to get town gamma lynched because me and kokichi are easier then gamma btw
VOTE: Nk15

Elaborate? What do you think of Kokichi's claim?

@Nibbui I can see Kokichi’s logic there actually

Could you explain it for me?

[northsidegal]

don't be discouraged

the game is stalling now but that's largely because we're kind of sitting on our hands. i agree with you entirely in the course of action and i've been meaning to fully go through all of my reads and give some thoughts on what might be a lynch order

[northsidegal]

i think we're getting off focus here. i think my current main lynch order is:

Maria > Kokichi (assuming no IC reveal) > Firebringer = Gamma

obviously it's optimistic to assume that it does, but if that doesn't end the game, depending on the number of scum flips within that pool i would look again at NK15 and Elbirn.

[northsidegal]

at the very least, i think the main thing is that i think maria should be today's lynch and i'd like to hear if people disagree

[northsidegal]

sorry, did i miss something you asked me?

[northsidegal]

i think he's being unreasonable in his flat out ignoring of you (although it's possible that i'm missing some kind of larger context here)

i'm not sure if that necessarily translates to him being scum – from memory, at least, i feel like that kind of antagonism towards questions usually comes from town more often than scum.

[northsidegal]

i hadn't noticed that – could you give me some post links or quotes or something that shows that?

[northsidegal]

nibbui i don't think you should feel obligated to replace out just because you can't put insane effort into this game when i don't think it's really necessary right now. yeah the game is a bit slow right now, but that's because we're waiting for the minigames and because of the holidays.

either way, i hope you'll stay in, though i understand if you don't.

[northsidegal]

@Maria/Kokichi

do you think NK15’s play is similar to Excalibur? I kiiiinda feel that way and want a second opinion

Hell yes it's one of the main reasons I sr him but I couldn't say shit until now LOL

nk15 had 5 posts in that game total. seeing that he was scum in that game was, if i recall correctly, one of the things that made me start to think he was town and remember to check his scumgames to see if he could replicate how he was playing here.

what kind of similarities are you (maria or gamma) possibly seeing?

[northsidegal]

a few random thoughts

reflecting on it i think elbirn's reaction to what firebringer was saying is, in general, more likely to come from scum than firebringer's reaction.

that doesn't sound like a very important statement, but it represents something of a shift in position for me.

[northsidegal]

Nobody seems to have responded to this, so i'd like to direct it towards Kokichi and Maria again:

@Maria/Kokichi

do you think NK15’s play is similar to Excalibur? I kiiiinda feel that way and want a second opinion

Hell yes it's one of the main reasons I sr him but I couldn't say shit until now LOL

nk15 had 5 posts in that game total. seeing that he was scum in that game was, if i recall correctly, one of the things that made me start to think he was town and remember to check his scumgames to see if he could replicate how he was playing here.

what kind of similarities are you (maria or gamma) possibly seeing?

[northsidegal]

Also, I don't mean to rush the mod, be rude or be insensitive to real life matters (be they important work or simply taking time off for holiday), but the primary reason why this day is stalling and isn't over yet is because we're waiting for the minigame. Having those be timely is pretty important, and if they're not it just means that game momentum is killed all that much more (leading to things like nibbui replacing out)

[northsidegal]

kokichi is claiming that ic is his quest role

he wouldn't know his quest role before it unlocked

[northsidegal]

Any objections/alternative takes to 3136? Using it otherwise as summary.

i think it's probably accurate

[northsidegal]

It was looking like Kokichi was 100% going to be today's lynch but then he claimed that he unlocked his quest PM which means that he will become an IC tonight. So by the way things are going, MariaR is probably going to be today's lynch and she doesn't seem to care about that.

especially this part

[northsidegal]

why are kokichi and firebringer your strongest townreads?

[northsidegal]

I don't know, but a scum flip by nico would be good. Considering she hasn't posted much, she could be scum.

she doesnt post much as scum

you think these are reasons to townread kokichi?

seems like something of a flimsy reason to scumread someone – it doesn't help that it's a flimsy reason to scumread someone that i'm nearly certain is town.

[northsidegal]

i suppose it's not really a necessary conversation to have given that kokichi's slot should resolve itself come tomorrow

i am interested to hear your reasoning on nk15 being town

[northsidegal]

my asking succint for reasoning on nk15 being town does not imply that i believe he is scum

[northsidegal]

i would be disappointed in myself if i had misread nibbui like that but i suppose i shouldn't consider it entirely out of the question

[northsidegal]

why?

[northsidegal]

unless you meant the minigame.

[northsidegal]

i was already dead at that point, it was just you and gamma.

either way, now that that's out of the way, i think i'm fine ending the day now.

[northsidegal]

why do you consider all of that hood town

[northsidegal]

kokichi didn't reveal IC

so i feel fine with lynching him today

[northsidegal]

you can't mislynch nicorobin while i'm alive.

[northsidegal]

man, succinct

why did you have to make me consider the possibility that i misread nibbui like this

[northsidegal]

yes

[northsidegal]

can you explain

i am disinclined to trust this so easily

[northsidegal]

RC and I both lost access to gamma's private thread, though exactly when i don't recall – i'm not sure if it was at the end of day one or later.

[northsidegal]

Were you able to talk there during the night phase?

i don't recall, although on further reflection i'm certain that gamma could answer.

RC and I both lost access to gamma's private thread, though exactly when i don't recall – i'm not sure if it was at the end of day one or later.

Did you actually lose access, or was it simply locked?

i lost access.

[northsidegal]

/when/ did i lose access

[northsidegal]

according to jjh i was removed on the turn of the second day rather than at night 1

[northsidegal]

Okay so barring Succinct being a Slumlord 4D chess master the game is solved with the scum team being

i sincerely doubt this is the case as much as i would enjoy for the game to be this simple

succint trying to lynch nico over kokichi today doesn't give me any confidence in that either

@Succinct, kokichi lied about being an IC. That's a confirmed scum right there.

Kokichi claims IC in many games.
I knew it was a lie from moment I replaced in. It's nai.

if kokichi is town lying about this then i have no reservations about policy lynching him.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: kokichi

[northsidegal]

i sincerely doubt that nicorobin is scum and i think everyone else should as well

[northsidegal]

my bad on assuming a miller conditional vig is town

[northsidegal]

NSG, why did the effort go down so much after Maria lynch?

frustration


despite the scum miller i played poorly regardless, townreading both md and chibi who played well in my opinion

i think the setup was really creative and a pretty daunting task to take on in the first place

[northsidegal]

the role for START (my minigame pick) looks really fun and i wish i had given just a bit more thought and put it first instead of third