Ruby Red
How confident are you in your ability to hit scum?
You think that's why he died?In post 2147, Lamees wrote:Remember when bbmolla claimed cop.
You already know random dot org is the way I'm going.In post 2150, Something_Smart wrote:Immortal is a huge issue though.: Succinct, LameesLamees (L-3)
Auro, Nako, rb, Egix96, Something_Smart,
Ruby Red
How confident are you in your ability to hit scum?
That's not a reason for him dying since scum know the roles, and would have already known he was faking.In post 2151, Something_Smart wrote:You think that's why he died?In post 2147, Lamees wrote:Remember when bbmolla claimed cop.
I don't think so. They know I'm angel so them killing him had nothing to do with power role.In post 2155, Something_Smart wrote:I guess it could be because they thought he was a different PR, but idk what that could be.
Guess we'll see how massclaim goes.
Isn't there a rule against using provable randomness though?In post 2152, Lamees wrote:You already know random dot org is the way I'm going.
Yes, good point, we should not no-lynch here.In post 2157, rb wrote:i like no lynch in mylo with 1 scum for sure and maybe 2, but 3 scum is diluting towm vote power even more
Yeah, that's right...In post 2160, Something_Smart wrote:There's a rule against provable randomness, but there's no rule against unprovable randomness.
I'm a Trickster, I turned invisible on Night 2.In post 2165, Lamees wrote:Plenty of days left. We can try to scum hunt.
Also let's leave the nominating part. Anyone should just claim when they post. Egix what's your role?
Who is your top scum read?In post 2168, Something_Smart wrote:Okay.
Time for some math.
Spoiler: Skip this if you don't like math
The probability of Egix's claim being true, assuming Lamees' claim is true and all else is equal, is 39.3%. This does ignore the probability that Egix would fakeclaim it, but I think this assumes that she would always fakeclaim it if the setup is Priest/Witch Hunter/Angel, which at the very least is not a ridiculous assumption.
So Lamees, if you do want to throw out all reads and leave it completely up to chance, the best option by far would be to hang Egix, which would in a vacuum give us a 60.7% chance of hitting scum.
That said, I still don't like that idea. Given that a random person from my POV has a 42.9% chance of being scum, and that raises to 50.0% if I assume that Lamees is town (as I have done in my calculations), I'd bet that my top scumread has a better than 60.7% chance of being scum.