[Game Over] Open 743 - The Crown of Misery

[MiniDeathStar]

Lamees (L-3)

: Succinct, Lamees

Auro, Nako, rb, Egix96, Something_Smart,
Ruby Red

Immortal is a huge issue though.

How confident are you in your ability to hit scum?

[Something_Smart]

Remember when bbmolla claimed cop.

You think that's why he died?

[Lamees]

Lamees (L-3)

: Succinct, Lamees

Auro, Nako, rb, Egix96, Something_Smart,
Ruby Red

Immortal is a huge issue though.

How confident are you in your ability to hit scum?

You already know random dot org is the way I'm going.

[Lamees]

Remember when bbmolla claimed cop.

You think that's why he died?

That's not a reason for him dying since scum know the roles, and would have already known he was faking.

[Something_Smart]

Oh, right.

I feel like we must be able to do better than a 28% chance of not immediately losing...

[Something_Smart]

I guess it could be because they thought he was a different PR, but idk what that could be.

Guess we'll see how massclaim goes.

[Lamees]

I guess it could be because they thought he was a different PR, but idk what that could be.

Guess we'll see how massclaim goes.

I don't think so. They know I'm angel so them killing him had nothing to do with power role.

[rb]

i like no lynch in mylo with 1 scum for sure and maybe 2, but 3 scum is diluting towm vote power even more

[rb]

lol i really dont think this is the way to go

[Egix96]

You already know random dot org is the way I'm going.

Isn't there a rule against using provable randomness though?

i like no lynch in mylo with 1 scum for sure and maybe 2, but 3 scum is diluting towm vote power even more

Yes, good point, we should not no-lynch here.

[Something_Smart]

There's a rule against provable randomness, but there's no rule against unprovable randomness.

[Egix96]

There's a rule against provable randomness, but there's no rule against unprovable randomness.

Yeah, that's right...

But still, just to be on the safe side, @Lamees do not actually use RDO. Just go eenie-meenie or something like that instead.

[Something_Smart]

There's definitely nothing wrong with using random.org.

[Egix96]

Yeah okay, but you mustn't PROVE that you used it, I think that's how it is.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah.

[Lamees]

Plenty of days left. We can try to scum hunt.

Also let's leave the nominating part. Anyone should just claim when they post. Egix what's your role?

[Egix96]

Plenty of days left. We can try to scum hunt.

Also let's leave the nominating part. Anyone should just claim when they post. Egix what's your role?

I'm a Trickster, I turned invisible on Night 2.

[Lamees]

Did you have any comments when bbmolla faked?

[Something_Smart]

Okay.

Time for some math.

Spoiler: Skip this if you don't like math

First of all, if a 3-point role is picked last, the probability is just all the role probabilities multiplied together, because any role was available until the end.
If a 1-point or 2-point role is picked last, the final probability must be modified because 3-point roles (and possibly 2-point roles) weren't available to pick last.

Probability of getting Priest/Witch Hunter/Angel with 7 points:
2 ways with Priest last: 2 * (20/100 * 10/100 * 25/100)
2 ways with Witch Hunter last: 2 * (25/100 * 10/100 * 20/60)
2 ways with Angel last: 2 * (25/100 * 20/100 * 10/60)
(These last two work out to be the same.)
Total probability = 1/100 + 1/60 + 1/60 = 13/300.

Probability of getting Priest/Witch Hunter/Angel/Trickster with 8 points:
6 ways with Priest last: 6 * (20/100 * 10/100 * 10/100 * 25/100)
6 ways with Witch Hunter last: 6 * (25/100 * 10/100 * 10/100 * 20/60)
6 ways with Angel last: 6 * (25/100 * 20/100 * 10/100 * 10/60)
6 ways with Trickster last: 6 * (25/100 * 20/100 * 10/100 * 10/20)

Total probability = 3/1000 + 1/200 + 1/200 + 3/200 = 7/250.

Probability that the setup includes a trickster, given that it includes a priest, witch hunter, and angel = (7/250) / (13/300 + 7/250) = 39.3%.

It'd be nice if someone else mathematically inclined could check my work, although the exact number doesn't matter that much.

The probability of Egix's claim being true, assuming Lamees' claim is true and all else is equal, is 39.3%. This does ignore the probability that Egix would fakeclaim it, but I think this assumes that she would always fakeclaim it if the setup is Priest/Witch Hunter/Angel, which at the very least is not a ridiculous assumption.

So Lamees, if you do want to throw out all reads and leave it completely up to chance, the best option by far would be to hang Egix, which would in a vacuum give us a 60.7% chance of hitting scum.

That said, I still don't like that idea. Given that a random person from my POV has a 42.9% chance of being scum, and that raises to 50.0% if I assume that Lamees is town (as I have done in my calculations), I'd bet that my top scumread has a better than 60.7% chance of being scum.

[Something_Smart]

If there are any other PR's, just claim in your next post.

[Ruby Red]

man i wish i was shot

claim vt

[Lamees]

Okay.

Time for some math.

Spoiler: Skip this if you don't like math

First of all, if a 3-point role is picked last, the probability is just all the role probabilities multiplied together, because any role was available until the end.
If a 1-point or 2-point role is picked last, the final probability must be modified because 3-point roles (and possibly 2-point roles) weren't available to pick last.

Probability of getting Priest/Witch Hunter/Angel with 7 points:
2 ways with Priest last: 2 * (20/100 * 10/100 * 25/100)
2 ways with Witch Hunter last: 2 * (25/100 * 10/100 * 20/60)
2 ways with Angel last: 2 * (25/100 * 20/100 * 10/60)
(These last two work out to be the same.)
Total probability = 1/100 + 1/60 + 1/60 = 13/300.

Probability of getting Priest/Witch Hunter/Angel/Trickster with 8 points:
6 ways with Priest last: 6 * (20/100 * 10/100 * 10/100 * 25/100)
6 ways with Witch Hunter last: 6 * (25/100 * 10/100 * 10/100 * 20/60)
6 ways with Angel last: 6 * (25/100 * 20/100 * 10/100 * 10/60)
6 ways with Trickster last: 6 * (25/100 * 20/100 * 10/100 * 10/20)

Total probability = 3/1000 + 1/200 + 1/200 + 3/200 = 7/250.

Probability that the setup includes a trickster, given that it includes a priest, witch hunter, and angel = (7/250) / (13/300 + 7/250) = 39.3%.

It'd be nice if someone else mathematically inclined could check my work, although the exact number doesn't matter that much.

The probability of Egix's claim being true, assuming Lamees' claim is true and all else is equal, is 39.3%. This does ignore the probability that Egix would fakeclaim it, but I think this assumes that she would always fakeclaim it if the setup is Priest/Witch Hunter/Angel, which at the very least is not a ridiculous assumption.

So Lamees, if you do want to throw out all reads and leave it completely up to chance, the best option by far would be to hang Egix, which would in a vacuum give us a 60.7% chance of hitting scum.

That said, I still don't like that idea. Given that a random person from my POV has a 42.9% chance of being scum, and that raises to 50.0% if I assume that Lamees is town (as I have done in my calculations), I'd bet that my top scumread has a better than 60.7% chance of being scum.

Who is your top scum read?

[Something_Smart]

Auro.

[Lamees]

I'm fine with an auro lynch too.

And scum have daytalk right? So by me leaving my vote on myself was a big risk of getting hamered since it's L-3 with 3 scum. But they haven't hammered yet. Succint/nako/red possible scum members.

[Lamees]

UNVOTE: