Mini Normal 2046: Autumn's Farewell [Endgame]

[Dannflor]

Hey all, I've been lowkey keeping up with this game out of boredom so ideally it won't take very long for me to reread and post thoughts. Be back in a bit!

[Dannflor]

First of all, the case on mbaki is absolutely the most ridiculous thing I've seen. The mbaki self vote is very clearly frustrated town. I don't see a world where scum!mbaki gets that outraged (because of poor town play) or somehow fakes outrage and then a few posts later cools down and gets back into the game. There is absolutely nothing to be gained by doing that for scum. Please do not make the argument that he faked the outrage for some contrived town cred because you can see the rage very clearly building up

because

of shitty townplay and a lack of activity. That's not something scum rages about, scum revel in that.

That leaves the rb "crumbs"... which... *sigh*

Let's look at rb's ISO, shall we?

wow im always serious imo

mbaki confirmed scum

wow scum trying to move people off the mbaki wagon imo

smh my head

it's just unfortunate that suka probably isn't town otherwise we'd have a townbloc imo

wow such a shame tbh

@rb- are you like... breadcrumbing with your 'wow's everywhere?
Is this your scumtell?

wow so true imo

Four potential "crumbs" directed at different people. Mostly calling people scum within the first 100 posts and then not really following up or playing it off as a joke. The odd one out is the one with Vorkuta, and the only one not initiated by rb. We'll come back to that. Like, you can make this crumbing argument with a LARGE number of players if you really try, which is possibly what rb wanted in case he died. Only scum knows who it was actually directed at if they caught it, rb doesn't have to be specific. Is one of the players he "crumbed" scum? Maybe. Is it enough to build a case on? I don't think so.

Now, look at the Vorkuta post. I'm not sure if Okapoka has been clouded by emotion or is just being intentionally obtuse, but since he's so fixated on these crumbs, I'm not sure why mbaki would be the preferred lynch to Vorkuta to him.

@rb- are you like... breadcrumbing with your 'wow's everywhere?
Is this your scumtell?

Who the fuck asks this? What town player asks this? Actually read this post and realize how much it doesn't make sense. Vorkuta asks if rb is breadcrumbing. Okay. Not ideal because it comes off as town PR fishing but forgivable for a newbie. Then he follows it up with "Is this your scumtell?" No one crumbs scum. The only reason you would ever crumb scum is if you were a traitor, and only scum would know there's a traitor in this game. Asking someone if their breadcrumbing isn't inherently the worst, asking someone if their scum isn't inherently the worst, but combined with rb's flip it looks really bad.

The thing holding me back from Vorkuta though, is it still doesn't make sense why Vorkuta would kill rb if he is scum. I am however surprised Oka isn't more fixated on this given how much importance seems to be attributed to these crumbs.

The problem with this game is that there's not really any or many overtly townie slots. In fact, most slots are scummy/lurky/not-helpful, or some combination of the three. Scum is having a field day with this and we got lucky they accidentally offed their traitor. So, watch me try to pull some tentative town reads out of this and try to make sense of the situation.

Mbaki is town. That's probably my most confident town read.
DrDoLittle is probably town given how much rb was pushing for him.
Okapoka is... town despite me hating his case. Mostly think he's just frustrated and not playing at a top level this game day. mbaki vs. Okapoka is very town vs. town.

I see Vorkuta is at L-1, and given ONLY his posting so far and the "crumb" I'd be satisfied with his lynch. However, I can't sign on to it when I'm left asking why on earth would he kill off rb after that exchange with him. It doesn't make sense to me and that's really holding me back from being okay with this.

If Vorkuta and mbaki are both town, scum definitely wants one of them lynched, as the game seems to be heading in a "first lynch one and then the other" direction, which makes play for scum the next couple days fairly easy. If one of Vorkuta and mbaki are scum (I don't think both can be), scum is probably pushing one of the less popular wagons to delay that domino effect getting their buddy lynched.

Combined with the NK paradox and the fact that this game has a lot of ML bait, I'm assuming Vorkuta is town for this analysis. The only people on the Vorkuta wagon I don't have any sort of town vibes from yet are Nero Cain and Bright Eyed Fish.

Looking through both ISO's I like NC more as town. Also:

Ah Mafiascum, you never disappoint.

I thought you were new to MS? Another lie?

He can't meta me because I don't play here.

I'm from another mafia site, so I doubt you do, but good luck if so!

and...

Good for you I guess

so was this actually going anywhere or what?

BrightEyedFish wagon is now open for business

i'll gladly lynch either one

If you think I'm scum then lynch me.

mbaki can't be trusted and is apparently only here to shit on MS. If you'd rather have him around that's fine. I on the other hand want him lynched.

BrightEyedFish is one of the players rb soft pressed throughout Day 1, and if we're going with the theory that mafia accidentally killed him because he posed a threat. This makes a lot more sense than Vorkuta killing someone who essentially claimed traitor directly to him.

VOTE: Mbaki
Guilty.

I don't know what to make of this post. Looks even worse in retrospect when BrightEyedFish suddenly switches gears to Vorkuta because he realizes that will be the easier player to ML, and Mbaki will come shortly after.

Rb, Cork, mbaki.

His scum team read REALLY wants the domino effect of both Vork and mbaki townies being lynched.

Meanwhile we should start hardpressing Varsoon. It's pretty fair to require someone to play or otherwise eat a lynch.

Yes Varsoon should play or get replaced. But I hate this post??? Pressing someone V/LA isn't magically gonna make them not be V/LA. We've already had one mislynch/policy lynch Day 1. Pushing for another one of those is bad.

VOTE: BrightEyedFish

[Dannflor]

Oh, I see that now. Not good. Still don't think burning another lynch on an unhelpful slot is a good direction to go in though. At least not in this game.

[Dannflor]

Scum, especially an experienced player, never gets that angry at that state of the game. There's also no reason for scum to manufacture that rage.

[Dannflor]

Vorkuta is scummy. But reading through the game, a LOT of players are scummy. I don't think the NK on rb ever happens with Vorkuta scum. And since I also believe mbaki is town, scum is most likely pushing for their lynches. I'm voting for the player I think is most likely to be scum on their wagons.

[Dannflor]

What about accidentally killing traitor though?

Are you asking if mbaki's reaction and subsequent self vote was due to scum!mbaki accidentally killing his team mate?

If you look at the string of posts leading up to his self vote he gets increasingly frustrated with not being able to get information out of other players. He seems calm directly after the flip.

[Dannflor]

why can't scum vorkuta make that nk?

he was the largest wagon at the time so he had to do something and i disagree that scum can't manufacture rage

You're either misreading or not thinking clearly, or just really grasping for straws to make this vendetta against mbaki work. If Vorkuta is scum, the "Vorkuta crumb" has to be him looking for a traitor, in response to which rb confirms as clearly as he can. I'm assuming he isn't a complete idiot. Why would scum Vorkuta ever make that night kill?

I didn't say scum can't manufacture rage, though it is difficult. I'm saying there is no reason for scum!mbaki to put himself in that position there. It's not advantageous for him.

[Dannflor]

If Vorkuta isn't scum, the crumb is not really a crumb, and that interaction would hold no more significance to scum than any of the other potential rb "crumbs" which they clearly dismissed in favor of whatever threat to them he posed. If Vorkuta is scum, that was direct interaction between the two players and holds significance.

[Dannflor]

He asks if that is rb's scum slip. I don't see a TPR crumb being interpreted there.

[Dannflor]

The problem is we're working with wonky information. The Day 1 lynch doesn't give us that much information because of the quality of the slot, so we're stuck with this weird traitor crumbing that can go in a thousand different directions. Worst case scenario we can lynch Vorkuta and then BrightEyedFish if Vorkuta flips town.

Oka, you expressed you think it's possible mbaki and Vorkuta are the scum team, right? Do you think their interactions throughout the game are actually manufactured?

Its a bad buildup because its foundation is on bs.

I think this is where we fundamentally disagree.

Scum just doesn't self vote, not experienced players. It never plays to their win condition unless it's a hammer. Rarely, town can self vote and it does play to their win condition.

[Dannflor]

Do you think their interactions throughout the game are actually manufactured?

I don't see how both of them can be scum.

[Dannflor]

They've been at each other's throats since mid Day 1, however.

[Dannflor]

You may not

feel

like they did but:

y have you two abandoned DDL is scum?

If you two is directed at me, I don't believe I ever expressed an intent to vote DDL.

Why? If anything it's making me doubt myself on suka because it looks like scum seeing a wagon not on them and jumping on.

It gave me weird town vibes because of how little of a shit it gave, looked like someone who's generally just an awful player rather than scummy. I am thinking of moving my vote back there though.

VOTE: Vorkuta
439 sounds weird.

VOTE: mbaki as I want this more than the yyotta lynch, but willing to switch back.

I do enjoy my three scumreads being the 3 person wagon on me.

Happy with either of Vorkuta and BEF, YYotta still good but it's being pushed by a lot of sketch people so it isn't my choice wagon anymore.

Why does a scum team do this Day 1?

[Dannflor]

Also you think Vorkuta can fake scum vs. scum?

[Dannflor]

DDL and Vorkuta were both pushed pretty heavily by rb day 1. That heavy of a bus doesn't make a ton of sense. BEF on the other hand was a push mentioned by rb but not a wagon that had or gained traction around that nor did rb ever vote for BEF.

[Dannflor]

Oka, I just think you're reaching a lot to make the game fit this fixed idea in your head of who the scum are, even though it doesn't add up.

Only if there's an encryptor.

Yea what, do they have day talk?

but i dont think that the idea that they cant be scum buddies because of their interactions should be used as an actual argument

The vibe I get from their fighting is genuine. You don't have to take it as an actual argument, but I don't feel that it can be manufactured personally.

[Dannflor]

maybe? I think it's dangerous to underestimate new players.

Yet, you're underestimating mbaki, an experienced player, by insinuating a self vote is the scummiest thing about him. Self voting is a newb scum tell.

[Dannflor]

-It was early on in the game and I wasn't taking it too seriously (basically still in RVS)
-there was the possibility that rb was telling us to either completely disregard or pay special attention to posts that had 'wow's in them and I wanted to make sure: the fact rb's iso basically DOESN'T have any more 'wow's in them after the first "quarter" of D-1 made me drop it and assume that it was done for the lols. Considering my (was at the time) ongoing game had a nice case of breadcrumbing going on, I thought it was worth a shot
-This was the response

Yea, even though I find a lot of Vorkuta's ISO generically scummy, I get the same vibes from a lot of the player list. And I kinda buy this excuse because he's a newbie. I'm not trying to "underestimate" I just think it fits behaviorally, and I stand by the fact that if Vorkuta is scum then the night kill is the dumbest thing ever.

lynching bef is preflipping mbaki and vorkuta it feels?

I feel they're both town, so that's why I'm going BEF.

[Dannflor]

that's like the definition of preflipping

i dont know if preflipping is ever a smart thing to do

I- Are you calling "having reads" preflipping?

[Dannflor]

Okay. I feel like that would only be problematic if that was my only reason for scum reading BEF.

[Dannflor]

I'd say that's accurate. I could post another wall regarding the actual content of his ISO and general behavior throughout the game but that'd be a bit redundant/has been discussed already?

[Dannflor]

Also, I don't scum read him because his scumreads are on town exactly, it's that he really wants to push both the mbaki and Vorkuta lynch and I think together they are easy mislynches for scum. I don't know if there's a distinction there for you but there is for me.

[Dannflor]

I think he's just scum and you are overthinking.

A possibility. A Vorkuta flip does give us enough information to know whether going after people on his wagon has good odds or not (BEF), I just wanted to avoid a mislynch to begin with. I'll reread his and BEF's ISOs and try not to be too conf biased.

y r u so low on me Dann?

I don't know what this means.

More coming in a bit, but for now I do want to say Creature is probably town. I was iffy on him at first but the last few pages have really solidified that. His talk about LyLo and avoiding mislynches doesn't come from a scum player when this game can so easily head in the wrong direction at this moment. Also:

What if there were no crumbs at all?

We've discussed rb's crumbs to death, and as we've noticed there's a million directions to go with them depending on how you twist or interpret them. Which means, while one of them might incriminate mafia, mafia can also have a field day with them to incriminate town as long as they're convincing. I think it's much more likely mafia is among the individuals trying to use rb's "crumbs" to push a case.

ELI5- What's the wincon for a traitor IF the traitor is dead?
Does said traitor still win with a scum victory or a town victory?

This post feels really fake? I'll come back to this. BEF and Vorkuta ISOs coming up next.

[Dannflor]

I'll start with BEF. Skimming his ISO the first time, I saw a lot of posts and not a lot of content, most posts just coasting by. Unfortunately, that description also fits about half the slots in this game, so it's not really enough for me to scum read BEF alone. One thing to note however, is that aside from his furious mbaki tunneling since the middle of day 1, his other votes have been opportunistic or otherwise lackluster:

Yyotta has had time to show why we shouldn't lynch him but hasn't done anything to show why he is a bad lynch.

I'm just going to throw my vote back his way for his lack of persuasion and to get things moving along

VOTE: YyottaCat

That's L-2.

Not, "I think Yyotta is scum," but "She hasn't done anything to make my vote on her look bad." This isn't a good look.

Just as yyotta gets to L-2, mbaki unvotes even though he is "Perfectly thrilled with" the yyotta lynch. Scum buddies perhaps?

VOTE: mbaki

Not really related to BEF, but something I noticed. This is actually a point towards mbaki being town now that we know Yyotta is town.

screw it. for the sake of progress.
Maybe this wagon will be successful.

VOTE: DrDolittle

Another vote without much reason except for "hoping it will be a successful one."

VOTE: Mbaki
Guilty.

So this post is bad because it might be construed as a cop claim and be fishing for something like that, and it also continues the unending tunnel vision on mbaki. However, I don't think the tunneling on mbaki is inherently scummy. As a rule, mafia generally aren't so fixated on tunneling one person, especially not someone who isn't just easy mislynch bait (which I don't think mbaki qualifies as). I think this is more of a town tell much for the same reasons I think Oka is town. It's a bad case and both players are letting emotions more than anything guide them, but scum doesn't really let emotions cloud who they vote for so much, it doesn't play towards their win condition. On the other hand, Vork's push on mbaki doesn't feel as driven by frustration or emotion.

Looking over RBs ISO again, DDL and Vork are also pinging me.

I went through rb's ISO twice. First I SR Vork and mbaki and on the 2nd go through I SR vork and DDL. The common name in both reads in vork so I feel comfortable with putting vork at L-1.

VOTE: Vorkuta

Reading through this the first time I saw this as a way to just hop on the easier ML, and it could still very well be that if Vorkuta flips town. But, reading through Vorkuta's ISO again, assuming he was town might have been a mistake. The NK still doesn't make perfect sense, but Vorkuta was one of three people rb was pushing D1, so there is that. In fact, rb was pushing Vorkuta, DDL, and BEF to about equal degrees, except he never voted for BEF nor did a wagon really build on him. By association, that makes me like BEF as scum more than Vorkuta, but by posts alone, Vorkuta is way worse.

Well what's an example of obv!town behavior?
And are you literally just clearing people based on... meta interactions, and RVS justification?

Nope. Vorkuta's town.

I invoke

potato

Leodanny's

Kaythanks, but why?

Like you guys are just handing town reads out like participation trophies.

Here are two times where Vorkuta expresses annoyance at the abundance of town reads. While town reading with some BS justification doesn't help town, how annoyed he gets by the amount of town reads doesn't follow that. A large part of this game is figuring out who the strongest town reads are and then sorting the rest of the players via process of elimination. Lots of town reads is bad for scum and good for town, at the very least it means scum has less easy lynches to push. Vorkuta trying to discredit masses of town reads on two separate occasions is bad.

I'm willing to jump on the DDL wagon (when/if he comes back) even though it doesn't really make sense to me..

I don't know if he is trying to use AtE to get people off of him and its having the opposite effect or what

Pretty much this- I think scum is way too classy to AtE, especially come D1...

The first sentence of this post is scum central. Why the fuck do jump on a wagon that doesn't make sense to you as town? You should only be willing as scum who wants to mislynch. As town you either get justification or push a scum read that does make sense to you, which he apparently had none of at this time?

you are currently voting Suka, the person you're dismissing as town, and not YYotta

Sorry, that was just me wagon hopping.

If I can get a Yyotta

policy

wagon going, then I'll get on it.
Otherwise I'll just park my vote nowhere until someone registers on my scum radar beyond a reasonable doubt.
UNVOTE:

VOTE: Yyotta unless she says literally anything, at which point I hop on the suka wagon.
Barring future developments of course.

"I'm just gonna vote this easy mislynch target unless I can vote somewhere else that looks good." This is worse than BEF's hop on Yyotta.

VOTE: YyottaCat @L-2

At least DDL is doing SOMETHING

Also worse than BEF's hop on DDL.

-Why are you guys giving the lurksacks and fluffposters a huge pass and not pressuring them to say something?
Your entire game plan, reasoning, and logic basically hinges on ME to flip red, leaving you in a complete crisis with a third of the player cast unaccounted for when I flip green.

You're wrong Vorkuta. If you flip green, we lynch BEF.

mbaki has already explained why his post #1294 is bad, I believe.

ELI5- What's the wincon for a traitor IF the traitor is dead?
Does said traitor still win with a scum victory or a town victory?

This doesn't seem genuine.

In a world where Vorkuta misses the rb crumb or doesn't interpret it as one, he's very much scum. That possibility is probably more likely than I originally assumed, and likely enough that BEF lynch doesn't really work off of assuming Vork is town. (which I think is what Oka was trying to get me to realize before) If Vorkuta does flip town however, I do think BEF is most likely scum. I'm fairly certain there is 1 scum in this pair. If we lynch both and I'm right we'll be left with 6:1, which is a great position to be in.

Vork should probably claim

[Dannflor]

Sorry for the huge wall, hopefully it's comprehensible. I can clarify if needed.

@Nero Cain, I don't have much of a read on you. I haven't ISO'd you in depth yet but a cursory glance gave me townier vibes than other suspects on the Vorkuta wagon. Is there something in particular you want me to respond to?

[Dannflor]

Maybe a claim should wait until we get players like Varsoon posting, then?

[Dannflor]

We have 6 days left on the deadline so we can afford to wait for replacements/posts as long as it doesn't kill momentum too much.

[Dannflor]

Link to game?

[Dannflor]

even if u ignore rb crumbs, i still think there is enough reason to lynch mbaki

The self vote is the only other explanation I've seen from you.

[Dannflor]

I've played traitor before and I didn't crumb once. But maybe I'm just bad.

@dannflor should be enough

It's not.

[Dannflor]

Scum just doesn't self vote, not experienced players. It never plays to their win condition unless it's a hammer. Rarely, town can self vote and it does play to their win condition.

[Dannflor]

prior to that Vorkuta crumb, I legitimately had no idea who was scum, I was wrong about one of my top townreads (it was sliding because rb can be read by engagement because he hates scum but still), and there are legitimately implicating things in rb's iso that people here are too new to not follow. I think the town wincon is followed by me getting lynched here, I'm not helping.

I voted myself because I had no confident reads (useless to town), I am not an important role (if I am a pr it is not something like a cop), and rb's posts to me looked the most like crumbing* (meaning I'd be a liability later on if we didn't hit scum) (*before Nero brought up Vorkuta essentially scum claiming). The fact I was not enjoying this game, combined with the fact I thought it actually might be optimal for town to get rid of me; my self-vote was not out of rage, hence the "Good luck town."

[Dannflor]

rb scum read BEF but never voted him as he did Vork and DDL. It's possible BEF thought that pressure would turn to him D2 and wanted to preempt that.

@Nero, I came in to talk about the most pressing matter at the time, which was Vork at L-1, and since then I've kinda been caught up in that. Also, your slot just didn't really grab my attention? Like, I think you're vaguely towny from skimming the game but:

"Oh but Nero is townier than BEF." I'm townier than

EVERYONE

!

I don't really agree. I haven't read your posts super in depth but there was nothing that screamed town at me just reading the game. I think it's quite unlikely your scum especially if my initial though of town!vork and scum!BEF is correct, as I think the 2nd scum is likely off the Vork wagon and trying to start pressure on someone else so scum has somewhere to go after the Vork lynch. However, I'm not getting any overt town vibes from you.

That said, I haven't given you a full ISO, so I'll definitely do that before the deadline given we have more than enough time. Also, I think I've said all I can say about Vork/BEF at this point.

Nero, if Vork flips town, do you not agree BEF is likely scum? His hop from mbaki to Vork is the thing that makes that association stick for me.

[Dannflor]

Don't know yet.

I have Creature/mbaki/OkaPoka as town. You and DDL as vaguely/leaning town. And then BEF and Vorkuta as the scum reads with only one of them being scum. I think BEF is a bit more likely but it Vorkuta could really go either way.

I don't have a firm enough grip on anyone else yet to say, but hopefully I'll have enough time before the deadline to ISO more players and get a better handle on them. Right now I would say if my scum!BEF is correct, Varsoon or Kmd makes the most sense as the second scum, though that's not based off their posting directly as I haven't looked at them yet.

[Dannflor]

First thing tomorrow I'll try to sort the rest of the players I haven't looked at yet, including a more in depth look at NC.

[Dannflor]

I did not outright call you scum because I don't think you're scum. I had direct reasons to believe everyone else on the Vork wagon was town, and I vaguely town read you, while BEF screamed scum. At no point did I scum read you or express any suspicion towards you, I just don't have anything I can say about you yet.

Also, you're right. I missed that he wouldn't claim without intent.

intent to hammer please claim Vork

[Dannflor]

Why were you determined not to claim without an intent to hammer despite multiple people asking you to? If you're not a PR what's the point of that?

[Dannflor]

Oka and DDL why are you both suddenly unsure? What changes with a VT claim

[Dannflor]

Aight, I can't sleep so here are my reads on everyone who is not named Vork, Oka, BEF, mbaki or Creature.

Nero Cain strikes me at first as an incredibly self-focused and self-involved player. This is a trait I usually associate with scum. In my mind town should care a lot less what other people think about them than scum. However, it didn't take long looking at Nero Cain's town meta to realize that's just how he plays, so it isn't AI at worst and is consistent with his town meta at best. I'm not going to quote specific examples here, you can't go two posts in his ISO without him asking what someone thinks of him or why someone is voting him.

mbaki, what's your current read on Nero?

Very slight toward scum I guess. No strong opinion to give.

Do you have any strong opinions this game and what are they?

Nero Cain does this quite a lot throughout the game (most recently directed at me), urging people to give

strong

opinions about the game or at least opinions at all. This is one of the reasons I had vague town vibes when I first skimmed. On closer look, the amount of times he pushes in this way reads very town to me. Engaging people in this way to create strong perspectives about the game is generally always gonna help town more than scum, and scum usually find it safer to question people in more vague and less helpful to town ways.

How would you suggest we resolve Yyotta, Nero?

Why do we

HAVE

to solve it? A game with no investigation roles are rare.

I mean, I guess it could be scum but I'm not really expecting a scum flip.

I guess for me all the talk of policy lynch and a post like

After a stalking of YYotta I have concluded they are likely WOTC worthy. This is very slightly more reminant of her town game. That said, I believe she is just a troll alt account of somebody.

has kinda scared me away from the wagon.

I was also agreeing with RB earlier that her lulzy vote on Suka felt kinda town,

I have to give town cred to anyone who put up more than a token resistance to the Yyota lynch. That slot was so perfect for scum.

TBF, town do get frustrated. Like yeah sure, throwing down a self-vote and aTeing as scum is a thing but its not like ONLY scum self-vote.

Also town points specifically for recognizing this. Very easy for scum to try and throw aside the fact that the self vote can have nuance to it.

Overall, I like the way the way Nero pushed people throughout Day 1, and his specific way of pressuring people to take strong stances is a definite town tell for me. Plus, his self-focus tendencies are consistent with a town meta so that's a bonus. I'm comfortable slotting Nero in with my strong mbaki and Creature town reads.

I claim Vanilla Townie

I CC

lmao

Gonna do other players cuz who needs sleep, but I'll break up the posts so it's easier to read.

[Dannflor]

Varsoon is a lurk fest, but he's surprisingly towny?

anyone want to help me get caught up? Is YyottaCat still the best lynch?

Dude it's a 14 page game
Even if you had to read literally all 341 others posts again, that'd take, what, 20 minutes?

VOTE: Bright Eyed Fish

Lolcatchmeup bruv

I don't think asking for a catchup is scum-indicative, I just want to see how'd you respond and what your justifications are, which helps me draw a bit more of a bead on how you play, given I don't have much meta experience with you.

VOTE: Dr Dolitte
I do think this doctor has done little.

I like this move and turn. If scum!varsoon wanted to move back to DDL they'd still keep that bead of suspicion on BEF for future purposes instead of dropping it completely. The push to try and get a better understanding of a player is fairly towny.

VOTE: Yyotta
Just to be sure, then.
It's an awful lynch, in my opinion.

It gives us nothing, imo.

Yeeeeeep. I need to look at which players specifically didn't put up any resistance to the Yyotta wagon and/or pushed for it. I know Vorkuta is one. I don't think it's a scum tell just to be on the wagon, but town should recognize that the lynch probably isn't scum and probably doesn't give much information to go on.

Aside from that, Varsoon doesn't do much else worth commenting on except for tunneling DDL. Though, atm I'd probably reverse my earlier vague town read of DDL and take him as scum over Varsoon. Varsoon's lack of participation in this game recently is worrying, but not necessarily AI. Looks like he just parked his vote on DDL and decided that was it. I'd like to seem him post again with the Vork claim and that wagon being at L-1 (or I guess L-2 now), however. I'll put this slot at leaning town with OkaPoka for now.

I was gonna do more tonight but I'm tired and can do the rest of the player list tomorrow.

Still need to know why a VT claim suddenly makes DDL need to think. The only thing that's changed is that I expressed intent to hammer for the claim, do you not actually want the lynch going through now for some reason?

[Dannflor]

No I just finished a game where a bunch of scum were lurkers and one dude I was pretty sure was town was scum

Oh and what? I don't understand this. You're doubting yourself now because you discovered your reads aren't infallible?

[Dannflor]

Yay! Hopefully this insight will solidify our sr’s! What do you think of DDL, Fish?

Don't really SR him right now but I get the flack on him though. I don't know if he is trying to use AtE to get people off of him and its having the opposite effect or what.

It looks like he will be MIA for awhile and he might replace out so I'm not too comfortable jumping on that wagon until we know if he will stay here or replace out. I tend to give people who replace in a little room to set their own tone before damning them for the sins of their predecessor.

Hm. Maybe DDL/BEF are the team.

[Dannflor]

I just have this feeling that it's varsoon

Why?

Scum 99.8 percent on the lynch block does not claim VT? Do they?

Scum do not necessarily claim PR. That just sounds like a way of retroactively clearing yourself, DDL.

I'm 50/50 on Vorkuta scum, but either way this flips progresses the game in a good direction.

VOTE: Vorkuta

L-1

[Dannflor]

I agree it feels not good. However, do you think it's a scum tell? Either alignment has the possibility of getting bored of the game.

[Dannflor]

True. I don't know why Varsoon isn't interacting with this Vorkuta wagon more regardless of both their alignments. Maybe he thinks the Vorkuta wagon is likely to go through either way?

[Dannflor]

Either way he flips it gives a lot of information to go on, at least a lot more than Yyotta did.

No one should hammer for at least a few days though to force the lurkers to post, and I'd like to use the time to get a handle on players like Suka.

[Dannflor]

Is anyone willing to hammer vork?

btw i thought it through and im ok with hammering.

We have four days though. Varsoon has gotta post.

I don't want to lynch Varsoon. If we aren't lynching Bright, can we lynch kmd?

Do you have anything more to say on the Vorkuta lynch since that's clearly where the day is headed, or are you going to continue to be unhelpful?

[Dannflor]

Why did DDL hesitate on Vork then?

UNVOTE:
need2think

Scum 99.8 percent on the lynch block does not claim VT? Do they?

Maybe I'm over thinking this.

If you know you are gonna die, would you still claim VT as scum? Why not a hail Mary PR reaction test

i still feel uneasy though.

if vork flips town, then tomorrow it feels almost natural to push bef.
but as creature echoed, I can also see them both as town.

this potentially hints at scum pushing narratives around and lining up easy mislynches.

I dislike all of these posts, especially the last one, and it just feels like a way for DDL to make himself look better if Vorkuta flips town. Hate the admittance that it feels natural to push BEF but the addition of the wishy-washy "I could see him as town." The amount of hesitation based off only my intent to hammer and a VT claim doesn't feel real. It's a somewhat smart move for scum since they know looking at the people on Voruta's wagon will be the next step.

[Dannflor]

also when i saw ur hammer intent, i thought it was a fake intent just to get a claim

Basically, but the claim was one of the only things stopping Vorkuta from being lynched, and when that happens DDL has a crisis suddenly? He's not risking anything as scum because the Vorkuta lynch is likely to go through anyways.

[Dannflor]

@Creature

If you help us lynch vork and he flips town, I will follow your lead tomorrow.

Because if vork flips town then I am on the wrong path and will have to get myself back on track from a different angle.

Yeah, okay.

VOTE: BrightEyedFish

I went through rb's ISO twice. First I SR Vork and mbaki and on the 2nd go through I SR vork and DDL. The common name in both reads in vork so I feel comfortable with putting vork at L-1.

VOTE: Vorkuta

Thought this post was awful when I read it, it's worse in retrospect. It's an

excuse

to put Vork, one of his scum reads, at L-1. Town doesn't do that.

BEF's scum hunting throughout the game is atrocious.

I still feel like we should take on rb's crumbs for our lynch target today. After we see the flip of whoever is lynched we will then have a better understanding if rb was really crumbing or not. If we don't address one of the main people in rb's crumbs today it will follow us into the next days and we will be in exactly the same spot, arguing over rb crumed or not. We need to nip it in the bud asap.

He spends the rest of the day tunneling Vork, mbaki, and DDL, the three major "crumbed" players BESIDES HIMSELF. We know Vork is town. I still think mbaki is town, and after rereading I'm actually going back and forth on DDL town. His reactions at the end of the day to the Vork lynch and BEF probably don't come from scum, though I still don't like the rest of his slot prior. According to this post we'll have a better understanding of whether rb was really crumbing or not, and yet, first thing today BEF wants to lynch the other two "crumbed" targets? No reconsideration that the crumbs might not have been real? Of course not, these are the easiest mislynches. This take is phony.

VOTE: mbaki

Done posting here. Good luck town.

If you are town you wouldn't be voting yourself.

And if you don't wish to play you can replace out.

In general, BEF has a lot of posts but lacking in much substance that I can call town. A lot of his interactions are just picking a bone with mbaki, who, being one of the more generally antagonistic players in the game (no ill will towards anyone) is probably an easier lynch than most via appeal to emotion. The bolded sentence is just plain wrong and an lazy, easy, way for scum to jump on frustrated town.

I'm having a hard time nailing down the second scum. I don't particularly like Suka/Kmd/DDL, but each slot has given me town vibes at one point or another, so I'm going to have to revisit everyone or at the very least do some more in depth analysis to find the second scum. But I'm very confident in the first, and regardless I think BEF should be the lynch for today. I'm gonna need a stronger defense than "I can see him as town" or "but I feel like he could be town" for me to back off from this.

His insistence that Vorkuta's flip will give more information, and then continuing to push the same bad reads/cases he had yesterday solidifies this read in my mind.

Also, it'd be great if KMD and Varsoon could play today.

[Dannflor]

omg is mbaki town

wow this took long enough

Dann thinks he has figured me out. Game solved. No need to discuss anything more today.
1 hour into the day and it looks like dann is finished so he then directly calls out kmd and Varsoon.
That some überobvtown there.


VOTE: dannflor

Heh? I think I do have you figured out, yes. Nowhere did I say there is nothing more to discuss today. While I believe you should be the lynch today 100%, that does not imply I want it to be a quick lynch, the more time we have to prepare for the next day the better. I did say I'd need a better defense for you for me to back down from this, which I think is absolutely fair, considering your defense so far seems to be this... OMGUS shit?

Yeah dannflor is not looking good.
I would expect that detective dann inspect the Nero NK but I have a feeling he knew it was coming.

If anyone wants to follow dann, go ahead. In the meantime I'll see if there is anything to learn from nero's flip.

Could you actually do this instead of just saying you will?

None of BEF's reactions to his wagon and the pressure on him have been town

It's basically inevitable now...

1-shot Neapolitan.
No, I haven't used my ability yet was going to save it as long as possible or when the number of players was smaller so I could sort my result better.

Here comes the goon lol hammer I assume.

I've already claimed. What good is L-1 if you don't want a quick hammer.
If I was scum my partner would be MIA for the rest of the day gaurenteed.

None of these posts read genuine.

Dann, who do you think the last scum is? I don't know if scum could really afford to bus today so I'm tempted to clear the wagon. That said, this playerlist is weak enough I don't feel confident they'd think that far ahead either.

I actually wouldn't be so ready to write off the wagon on BEF as town. At least going by the way BEF is behaving, I think it's very likely the scum team is panicking and may want to try and secure themselves free town cred by showing no hesitation for this lynch. As confident as I am in BEF, this speed this lynch got to a claim makes me a little uncomfortable?

BEF is completely right on one thing though, everything is not figured out yet. I'm busy this afternoon, but I'll come back this evening and try to sort my strong town reads from my weak town reads. I have the same uneasiness with Oka's latest move that Creature does, (and I think he or Varsoon is most likely candidate for "panicking scum desperate for town cred") but I'm gonna have to revisit his ISO completely because I had been thinking he was town up until today.

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

It's suboptimal to lynch a claim that's likely dying tonight anyway

I'm not sure I buy this logic. If BEF didn't die during the night, that wouldn't automatically incriminate him because of the existence of healer roles and roleblockers and scum playing mindgames. We'd be left in exactly the same situation tomorrow as we are today concerning BEF. Why should we not lynch him today?

[Dannflor]

I have yet pick up on any hints on PRs nor do I have any strong TRs. It would be like shooting in the dark and hoping I get a VT result and hoping I don't put a guilty on someone and out another PR.

You could have targeted DDL? Someone unlikely to die and someone who had already claimed VT. You would have confirmed his innocence or confirmed he was scum fake claiming.

[Dannflor]

if he comes with a result tmr ur going to not lynch him? that makes no sense.

I agree with this. What if BEF's target dies? What if he's scum and just decides to confirm DDL as town in an attempt to prove his own innocence? What if he tries to clear his own partner? Not all of these are likely but there's enough things that could go wrong or that are uncertain that I don't think him surviving until tomorrow is gonna resolve his slot one way or another.

[Dannflor]

It's been a bad game for me all around and I feel its too late for me to get back on track and out from under this pressure.

I would like you to try. It would help your case a lot more than this appeal to emotion crap.

If anyone wants to follow dann, go ahead.

In the meantime I'll see if there is anything to learn from nero's flip

.

Where is this analysis?

Right now your vote is still on me in what I can only call OMGUS. I'm not trying to shut down discussion as you say, and I certainly don't think I'm infallible. I don't understand why you're voting me other than it was the only place you could easily vote without incriminating yourself further.

[Dannflor]

Vote Bright

Reasons are in my ISO from Day 2.

Which post is this KMD?

[Dannflor]

also @KMD, what are your reads right now aside from BEF?

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE: BEF

I have stuff I want to say and do before the day is over, and while I don't think anyone is going to lolhammer, I'd rather avoid the risk since we already have the claim.

[Dannflor]

Oh it was at L-2 anyway. Either way, wanna slow down just a bit.

[Dannflor]

with the voyeur + traitor flips this is likely to be a game of little PR powers. does 1-shot neop make sense in this set up?

I think it's far less likely for single shot roles to exist in this game with the presence of voyeur, but I'm not about to spec 'cus mod WIFOM has screwed me in the past.

Regardless
Judge people based on their play rather than the contents of their claim.

You think BEF is town?

[Dannflor]

You were okay with his lynch D1. Why do you think Oka is scum?

[Dannflor]

I just want to understand what makes other lynches more appealing to you.

[Dannflor]

Yea, I don't see the benefit we get from delaying a BEF lynch. Just seems to give scum an extra night to strategize?

I'm also coming around on the idea that Bright could be scum. Creature makes a good point that Bright's reads are all consensus reads and regardless of how Bright presents those reads, it's still true that they ARE his reads. Dann also showed that some of Bright's posts focus on whether the lynch can go through or not rather than whether the player he is voting is scum. That may show the mentality of scum trying to get through the game rather than town trying to find scum.

I think I'd vote Bright if the choices are him, mbaki, and Vorkuta.

@KMD, This is the ISO you were referring to, yea? Why did you say this and then not vote Bright yesterday?

[Dannflor]

Not really much, I guess.
I just get worse vibes from Oka and DDL.
The way they are present and how they interact with the game
It bothers me
I can't really articulate it

What about them gives you bad vibes? What do you think of DDL's reaction to Vork and BEF at the end of the last day? Do you think scum pulls off the wagon like that?

[Dannflor]

I thought you thought I was scum?

I changed my mind over the night. I don't think your super town, but I think now that your actions at the end of the last day don't come from scum. I mention this here:

I don't particularly like Suka/Kmd/DDL, but each slot has given me town vibes at one point or another

Right now though, I'm leaning Kmd for second scum, more on that later.

[Dannflor]

hey gonna read a bit now

awk

[Dannflor]

Ouch.
Guess you'll have to pull more of your weight and actually catch scum.
How's that one going for you?

Dude. This is the extent of your scum hunting:

Not really much, I guess.
I just get worse vibes from Oka and DDL.
The way they are present and how they interact with the game
It bothers me
I can't really articulate it

I actually looked at Varsoon's ISO again because his recent posts have been bothering me so much, and I think I made a mistake when I first read him. I gave him town points for posing resistance to the Yyotta lynch. By my counts he was pushing DDL through D1, probably hoping to get (what I'm viewing as now) an easy mislynch and save Yyotta as a policy lynch for the next day. All his actual resistance to the Yyotta wagon comes after she was already lynched:

VOTE: Yyotta
Just to be sure, then.
It's an awful lynch, in my opinion.

It gives us nothing, imo.

That's what all flips do, though.
What I mean is that I wish the interactions with the wagon were more palpable.

I don't think it'll flip scum, though.
Getting a mislynch with low info is the worst outcome.

I don't have a read on Yyota.
I don't think I've had a single interaction on the slot.
I'd lean it more likely town than not given how other players have treated it, though.

It's like... "Let me just make sure this lynch goes through... Oh yea it's a total mistake btw." This is all just token resistance that comes

after

the lynch actually went through, a detail I missed on my first read. All of these posts are useless except to try and grab free town cred when Yyotta flips town. As scum, it's incredibly easy to make these posts knowing the outcome of the lynch to try and make yourself look better. Most of his other activity before that was trying to ram through DDL. I'm moving Varsoon to scum.

If it's the former, we decide whether to lynch him or not.

You're saying we could potentially not lynch him if he fakes a good enough result?

idk,

I could still see it being town

and it'll suck harder if we mislynch town!him today than let scum!him survive another day.

Why? I need more on this for me to come close to seeing what you're seeing.

What do you all think about Suka?

I think she's town by the way she plays. It's good to note she defended Vorkuta as a newbie from the very beginning as well.

[Dannflor]

KMD sat on Yyotta all day.

For some reason I can still imagine someone being that bad as town.

I mean, yea. If this game so far is anything to go by, that's a possibility. I'd feel so much better if he'd actually used his ability on DDL since that's the obvious thing to do.

If not BEF, who? I don't think Oka is correct.

[Dannflor]

Creature, in the hypothetical situation we don't lynch Bright today, which I'm not sold on, do we direct his night action? If so, to where?

Also Suka is town.

[Dannflor]

What happens when mafia kills DDL, or the off chance DDL is his partner

[Dannflor]

I'm just not seeing the scenario where any result from BEF at this point is useful, but maybe I'm blind because I'm fixed on him being scum

[Dannflor]

@DDL That would mean I've been hard bussing since I came into the game... which... idk maybe that's a play in some universe.

whats going to happen if we don't lynch bef is we are going to probably then mislynch today because odds are stacked against us heavily now, town n2 gets nk'd, and bef claims that either the person he checked was killed or he was rb'd and then we are here again except w two less town members. yeah there is this unlikely scenario where bef straight up did all this nonsense as a real 1-shot neopolitan, but playing for the 1% scenario to sabotage 99% other scenarios is not worth. if there was a way to make sure 100% it was safer, id do it, but this isn't that case.

Bright's OMGUS on Dann is pretty bad. Didn't address a single point. Didn't say why Dann's case makes him scum rather than wrong. Just got defensive and voted. Also, I think I already commented on the claim but just in case I didn't, I don't buy it. I don't see any reason he'd actually wait to use a 1-shot investigative. It sounds like scum trying to buy another day. I wouldn't be surprised if he's like a scum rolecop or something looking for another night to get another result. Oka's point about the vig claim is spot on too. A town investigative should never try to make themselves a NK target, especially if they are holding shots for some reason.

Pretty much all this ^^^

Right now the only other lynch I feel close to comfortable with is Varsoon. His "haven't loved the slot, but let's lynch somewhere else instead" attitude in conjunction with everything that's happened doesn't look good. But I would not want to push this before BEF.

VOTE: BEF

I think the odds of BEF being a scum PR is greater than being a town PR, and I don't want that surviving another night.

[Dannflor]

lmao also, this is hilarious:

Yeah dannflor is not looking good.

I would expect that detective dann inspect the Nero NK but I have a feeling he knew it was coming.

If anyone wants to follow dann, go ahead. In the meantime I'll see if there is anything to learn from nero's flip.

I ask him a few times to follow up on his findings. There is no follow up.

Nero, if Vork flips town, do you not agree BEF is likely scum?

not really, no.

Who else is scum besides BEF?

He wants us to come to the conclusion that Nero was killed because he was "opposition" to a BEF mislynch, but he can't come out and say it himself. Maybe that's a stretch, but if he's actually town, I don't know why he makes a specific statement like that and then literally never follows up. Just sounds like it's goading other people to have a look and hopefully come up with a specific conclusion.

[Dannflor]

Varsoon and DDL look kinda similar, but Varsoon is scummier IMO.

[Dannflor]

dann is varsoon your top scum read after bef?

rnow, yes

[Dannflor]

DDL you are a very mixed read to me with some of your slot reading very scummy and some of your slot reading very town, so I don't really know where to sort you. I would lean more town than scum just based on gut though. At a surface level, yours and Varsoon's posts do look similar.

[Dannflor]

There are a lot of "low hanging fruit" in this game. Or were, two of them were lynched already. But nice try on discrediting anyone who scum reads you without actually defending your play or doing actual scum hunting. All you did today was join a pointless Oka wagon, and then finally bus your buddy when you had no other option.

[Dannflor]

Maybe DDL will think I'm orchestrating this OMGUS with Varsoon too in the scum PT

[Dannflor]

I didn't imply I thought it was DDL, just that his logic is off.

I don't really understand your question. You get town cred just by being on a scum wagon. Maybe I used the word bus too liberally? It just looked like a vote you had to make because you'd be too suspicious come the next day if you avoided BEF all day today.

[Dannflor]

Ideally, but I just played a game where scum hammered his buddy after basically ignoring him all day, so this feels familiar.

And yea the day is over p sure. Suka hammered.

[Dannflor]

To articulate better, you said you had two people in mind you would rather lynch, and even minor traction on one of the wagons, and then just kinda shrugged and voted BEF instead, who you'd previously said you didn't want to lynch today.

[Dannflor]

Why Suka

It's still Bright/kmd, with a chance it's DrDo/Oka if one of those flip town. I'm not voting outside this group of players for the rest of the game.

I don't think scum does stuff like this

[Dannflor]

I want to know what you think in case you are town. Even if you're scum, it's helpful. The more information the better.

[Dannflor]

I really thought I was right here. I'm still not gonna be completely convinced until the flip.

Regardless, I need to re-examine the game.

[Dannflor]

I mean, he could just be scum trying to implant some last minute suspicion/paranoia into the town subconscious, or pulling some sort of WIFOM gambit with his reads. But that's a stretch.

[Dannflor]

I just don't think your behavior today really lent itself to town at all. Like, your most productive and towny posts have been in twilight, which is problematic.

[Dannflor]

Except your defensive mode was just an OMGUS vote on me, which didn't really "defend" you at all. I mean, if you really think I'm scum, fine, but from my perspective you could have spent your time better.

I'm a little unhappy with how quickly the lynch went, but I guess I shoulda seen it coming, as it was why I unvoted you half way through the day.

[Dannflor]

Ugh, this is a mess. I'll be back in 48 hours hopefully with some good reads?

[Dannflor]

ayyy at least I had one good read in this damn game

gg

[Dannflor]

i thought mbaki was painfully obvious town lol

[Dannflor]

i think i should've hammered mbaki there

i just didn't expect the wagons to redirect towards me

in retrospect, yea, but you played really well otherwise I think

[Dannflor]

that's like the definition of preflipping

i dont know if preflipping is ever a smart thing to do

I- Are you calling "having reads" preflipping?

Welcome to this game.

Ok sorry idk why but this was my favorite string of posts in this game I laughed really hard when it happened just because mbaki's frustration was so palpable

[Dannflor]

Thanks for the really interesting game, everyone! My favorite games are the ones i can follow along with as a spectator even outside of just being the mod!

+1

Also, great modding NSG!

[Dannflor]

honestly i'm glad i'm dead

another good one

[Dannflor]

if no players appreciate me at least the mod does

I appreciate you

tried very hard to stop your lynch ever happening