[Game Over] Open 743 - The Crown of Misery


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Post Post #8 (isolation #0) » Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:03 am

Post by Something_Smart »

First.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #54 (isolation #1) » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:16 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 28, Egix96 wrote:If she thinks that the setup is scumsided (I can kind of see why, I think) then shouldn't that make her want to win more if she's town?
What?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #60 (isolation #2) » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:41 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 55, Auro wrote:Something_Smart, why have you not voted yet?
I don't usually feel like random voting, I don't think it's the votes that spark D1 discussion but just people talking to each other.

And I don't put down real votes often, especially early on. I find it leads to confbias as I'm asked to justify it, and I don't think most players are easier to read under pressure.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #80 (isolation #3) » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:22 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 61, Auro wrote:But we talk to each other based on the votes we make; does that not give enough reason to vote?
My point is that we'd talk just as well without votes...
Define "real"? What do you think of the content produced so far?
Real = a serious vote. I don't have any particular impressions of anyone. Tip for playing with me: you'll get way more mileage asking me for "thoughts on post X" than for "thoughts." I don't have time to write down all my thoughts and if I did they'd be all jumbled anyway.
In post 62, Egix96 wrote:I'm guessing that town!DVa would have appreciated the challenge of playing as town in a setup that she herself perceived to be imbalanced against that alignment. It's not a particularly strong tell, but it's a start.
Is DVa the type to do this? For me, the only reason I'd appreciate being town in a scumsided setup is to have an excuse for losing :P
In post 65, Thor665 wrote:
In post 60, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 55, Auro wrote:Something_Smart, why have you not voted yet?
I don't usually feel like random voting, I don't think it's the votes that spark D1 discussion but just people talking to each other.

And I don't put down real votes often, especially early on. I find it leads to confbias as I'm asked to justify it, and I don't think most players are easier to read under pressure.
If you believe this why are all your other posts able to be quoted by going; "First, what?".
Shouldn't you be trying to drive some conversation?
I try never to force anything. If I don't have anything I want to talk about, I won't try to force myself to get people talking. So I won't ever make a post with the intent of "driving conversation." I'll make a post with the intent of "talking about X." And I'll do this when, and only when, such an X comes to my attention.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #81 (isolation #4) » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:27 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

LAMIST is a buzzword and a bullshit tell.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #90 (isolation #5) » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:14 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

...Momentum? In RVS?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #97 (isolation #6) » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:49 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 93, Auro wrote:For starters, I'd like to hear your thoughts on:
DVa's "ugh I rolled town in a scumsided setup" posts;
NotNova's and Lamees' attack on DVa citing LAMIST;

Do you think the former is AI?
Unlikely. Clearly she already held the opinion that the setup was scumsided, so she'd probably say something like this as scum as well as town.
Do you think the latter could be scum motivated?
Could be? Sure. But I think a lot of new players, town and scum, learn buzzwords like LAMIST and then apply them, and that post does fit the description of LAMIST although the belief that that description is reflective of alignment is false. (And I'm not trying to be patronizing here. It's just a trend; as you get more experienced you tend to realize when the buzzword concepts do and do not really apply.)
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #119 (isolation #7) » Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:29 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 115, Thor665 wrote:So you don't drive content via questions or votes, but generically drift, let others drive content, and then react to it.
I find a non-proactive playstyle inherently questionable for helping town wincon.
You can be a scum lean now.
Turns out that I have more experience with what playstyles work for me than you do.

Back when I was newer I would push reads, drive lynches, and run reaction tests. I got townies lynched all the time, and I got myself mislynched all the time.

I play this way because it works for me. Not because it fits to somebody's ideal of "helping the town wincon," as if that were universal and the same for everyone.

You can disagree with my playstyle if you want. You're free to present an argument for why the game is better if every player is actively trying to drive discussion. (Hint: it's not better. It's a shitshow.) But it is how I play, so you're going to have to suck it up and deal with it and not scumread me for things the way I choose to play the game of Mafia.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #120 (isolation #8) » Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:32 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 115, Thor665 wrote:Town try not to look scummy, but so do scum, and it's valid to suggest scum would try to do so harder, so...?
It's valid to SUGGEST, but it's not valid to BELIEVE without any evidence...?

Even then, it's probably offset by the fact that scum want to avoid looking like they're trying to look like town, which under the same assumption town wouldn't care as much about.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #122 (isolation #9) » Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:48 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 119, Something_Smart wrote:not scumread me for things the way I choose to play the game of Mafia.
I think I forgot how to English. Ignore the word "things."
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #196 (isolation #10) » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:17 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 129, Auro wrote:I don't think scum overthink THAT much, because self-consciousness at one point becomes obvious.
Your logic could be applied to any tell, I feel - "Scum would avoid tell X, therefore X is a buzzword and BS tell". Would you agree?
Any tell that can be consciously avoided, yes. For instance, forced reads and interactions are scumtells, but they're scumtells because the players who do them can't avoid sounding forced.

But in general, yes, you've keyed into my philosophy, which is that towntells are far more reliable than scumtells.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #197 (isolation #11) » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:18 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I seem to recall liking NotNova although I can't remember why off the top of my head.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #199 (isolation #12) » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:30 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Well after checking it seems he only has three posts so I might have just been misremembering, but does read as pretty genuine.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #208 (isolation #13) » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:14 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 201, Thor665 wrote:How is it valid to suggest if it's not valid to believe it? I don't see the connective absence there.
It's valid to suggest because it IS valid to believe that scum would try to look town, and might do so poorly.
Eh, ambiguous wording on my part. I don't think you can logically deduce that town are better at looking town than scum are, when they specifically attempt to. That would have to be something that you'd learn from experience, and in my experience it depends very much on the person.

Also, LAMIST is not putting in a lot of effort to look town. It's very easy to say "I'm town" as either alignment, and there are reasons town players might do it that's not to look town. (i.e. because one school of thought as town is that you should just say literally whatever you feel like you want to say.)
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #219 (isolation #14) » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:16 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 212, Thor665 wrote:Why are you so interested in attacking a scumhunting style when you acted defensive when I questioned your style? Isn't that hypocritical on your part?
Because you didn't question my style. You called me scum for using it. If you'd merely expressed concern that it was ineffective, I'd have assured you that it's worked in the past. Similarly, you are totally free to respond to my skepticism about LAMIST by saying you've caught scum with it plenty of times-- but I doubt that's the case, and I doubt it's the case for most people who use LAMIST as a scumtell.

I think we've beaten this point quite into the ground; I don't think LAMIST is a useful tell and I've stated my reasons why. Let's move on.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #220 (isolation #15) » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:17 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 214, Malakitty wrote:Uh, kill this with fire? I hope you explained why you were asking this in the next page.
What's wrong with it?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #249 (isolation #16) » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:18 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 222, Malakitty wrote:Lamees I more feel like the posts don’t really have any substance behind it. I didn’t like the first post I quoted more because I felt like it’s I’m here looking like I’m contributing but then not doing anything about it.
Why are you townreading rb then? I feel like his posts don't have much substance either...
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #250 (isolation #17) » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:22 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Leodanny (L-3)
: Persivul, Thor665, Auro, Egix96
Lamees (L-4)
: rb, Malakitty, YyottaCat
rb (L-5)
: Lamees, Leodanny
DVa (L-6)
: NotNova
YyottaCat (L-6)
: Dunnstral
NotNova (L-6)
: DVa
Something_Smart
I thought the blatant self-contradiction in was towny but also reads like trying too hard to be flippant...
Last edited by MiniDeathStar on Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:11 am, edited 2 times in total.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #251 (isolation #18) » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:30 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 246, rb wrote:i would be more okay with people being on the fence if they had a direction that wasn't just being on the fence
But the view is lovely from up here :P
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #252 (isolation #19) » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:33 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Wait lol I was just making a joke but that's actually a valid point. You see things better and in a more unbiased way if you don't have an opinion on the issue already. (Which is kind of my philosophy anyway.)
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #254 (isolation #20) » Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:29 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 253, Thor665 wrote:@Something_Smart
I mean... I want to move onto talking about the game and about players other than myself. It doesn't necessarily need to be with you, but if you want to engage me on anything I just said, go for it. How do you feel about Lamees?

And, I think you're not using "attacking" correctly. Attacking implies aggressive intent; so I would be wanting to call someone either scum or a bad player-- but clearly I don't want either of those things. I'm just giving my opinion on the value of a tell.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #359 (isolation #21) » Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:44 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Checking in, don't have a lot of time because I'm moving out of my apartment today and my internet was down last night, but two things I want to say.

One. That Persivul saying that people with scummy playstyles should get lynched amounts to victim blaming. It essentially argues that it's not someone's fault for being wrong and overly confident, and that it's the responsibility of others to make sure they don't make people wrong and overly confident. Yes, it is possible for the target to share some of the blame, but the majority of it must go with the person who was wrong, especially if they've seen this person act that way before.

And two. In response to a question about why I found Lamees' self-contradiction towny. Either she didn't notice those two statements contradicted or she did. If she didn't, then she was saying whatever she wanted without any care as to how it was perceived. If she did, then she cared more about getting genuine thoughts out than she did about looking consistent and superficially good.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #481 (isolation #22) » Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:53 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

Lamees, how confident are you that rb is scum?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #495 (isolation #23) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:49 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Okay I think the right play is to hang Lamees and have her shoot rb.

Although actually, given the chance of GF, it might be better to just hang rb.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #510 (isolation #24) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:45 am

Post by Something_Smart »

That very argument requires that we consider lynching her for it to be valid.

We don't have to actually do it but we at least have to think about it. If she and rb are both town, it's better to hang her and know that rb is town than to hang rb, have him flip town, and then possibly hang her as well.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #512 (isolation #25) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:49 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I don't think and come from an immortal.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #513 (isolation #26) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:49 am

Post by Something_Smart »

If anything, if rb is scum one of the people he mentioned there could be immortal.
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Post Post #515 (isolation #27) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:55 am

Post by Something_Smart »

VOTE: rb
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Post Post #517 (isolation #28) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:56 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I think it's right to lynch Lamees or rb.

We're in a good spot unless they're both town. If they are both town, I still think it's better to hang Lamees first, but otherwise it's better to hang rb first.
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Post Post #518 (isolation #29) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:58 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 516, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 514, DVa wrote:Also, I feel like scum more often does very early claims.
I disagree with this
Yeah, I disagree also. What makes you think that?
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Post Post #520 (isolation #30) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:03 am

Post by Something_Smart »

To be honest, I have literally no idea how to parse anything rb has done this game. I played with him a while ago and he was nothing like this. That's another reason I want him out of the game...
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Post Post #685 (isolation #31) » Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:32 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 533, rb wrote:if someone isn't the same as they were over 6 months (?) agp, they must be scum.

smart imo
I literally just said I can't read you at all.
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Post Post #691 (isolation #32) » Sun Dec 16, 2018 12:35 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 542, DVa wrote:So it's not an omgus, I just have started to not care about your alignment. Stop playing to scum wincon if you're town.
This is pretty much how I'm feeling too. That combined with Lamees' scumread of him makes him a good lynch.

Although I will say that your argument over whether it's right to vote lurkers to pressure them to talk is mostly opinion and not alignment-indicative. I'll rarely vote lurkers with the express intent of getting more content from them-- if they give more content, great, but most people don't lurk only because they think they can get away with it (either they're not engaged, or they're busy, or they don't care at all).
That's right, she was replaced. Might as well leave these comments up to let people know how I'm thinking.

I didn't really much understand the DVa votes beyond "she was loud and garnering a lot of attention." I think it makes even less sense to vote that slot now that it's been replaced. (Looking at you Auro)

DLA seems fine so far.
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Post Post #705 (isolation #33) » Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:15 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 701, Auro wrote:So her scumclaiming, self-voting and asking me to hammer her, this doesn't concern you at all? You think *this* play comes from town?
It doesn't make sense from town or from scum. Those posts alone could have been faked emotion, but since she replaced out it proves it was real emotion-- which could come from either alignment.
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Post Post #782 (isolation #34) » Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:50 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 756, Egix96 wrote:
In post 754, Auro wrote:What happened to your "hot take"? :P
It was a reaction test.
What did you expect to get from it? What did you get from it?
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Post Post #784 (isolation #35) » Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:14 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Before I know how I stand on DLA, I want him to talk more about the thing in my wording he didn't like. Specifically, why he thinks me wording it the way I did is indicative of my alignment.

Also I think Egix's reads pretty genuine, especially if DLA ends up being scum.
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Post Post #787 (isolation #36) » Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:22 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 785, DarkLightA wrote:This assumes she flips angel.
Yes, and?
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Post Post #789 (isolation #37) » Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:44 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I mean, I don't expect her to flip scum, but that's not even why I said that and I'd say it even if I did expect her to flip scum.

It's just like telling an investigative to check someone: you can say "X should check Y" and it doesn't mean you're assuming X is actually an investigative. It's just a way of laying out a plan.
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Post Post #802 (isolation #38) » Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:39 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 798, Persivul wrote:Why are you defending him so hard? You say you noted yourself that he hasn't done much here, so you can't reasonably have a strong town read on him.
It's not necessary to have a strong townread on someone in order to defend them. I'd defend even a scumread from an accusation I thought was unreasonable.

I also wouldn't really call what DLA did defending, and certainly not hard defending. It looks like he's just questioning and trying to get you to talk more about your read.
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Post Post #807 (isolation #39) » Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:51 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I mean, I don't think extremely leading questions make good reaction tests...
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Post Post #809 (isolation #40) » Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:56 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Also bristep, do you have an issue with that? I support arguments that are logical and make sense, and I oppose those that don't. To support an argument that doesn't make sense just because I happen to agree with its conclusion is pure confirmation bias.
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Post Post #812 (isolation #41) » Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:07 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 810, bristep123 wrote:I don't play logically, I play emotionally. Does that make me wrong to you?
No, but it means I'm not likely to support your reads and reasoning. I wouldn't interfere with a question just because it was meant to elicit an emotional response, but I don't really like the idea of intentionally making no sense to make someone confused or frustrated.

I guess if you want I can refrain from commenting on your questions until you get a response, but you'll have to explain after the fact what information you got out of that response.
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Post Post #882 (isolation #42) » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:39 am

Post by Something_Smart »

You guys realize that angel dying at night and hitting a framed town target is better than angel dying at night and hitting a town target that they didn't say in advance...
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Post Post #885 (isolation #43) » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:50 am

Post by Something_Smart »

If angel hits framed town we have a scummy town dead, equivalent to a vig shot. A second vig shot or a blocked kill would put us way ahead.
But if angel dies and picks a town that nobody knows, we get nothing at all.
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Post Post #887 (isolation #44) » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:06 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Fair enough, but since she'd be announcing it ahead of time we can at least give her some guidance.

I was under the impression that she'd pick rb... do you think that'd be a bad choice?
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Post Post #888 (isolation #45) » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:08 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 876, rb wrote:i mean, if we're consolidating between mala and leo

VOTE: leo
False dichotomy and also you are still on the table :P

I do want to know what people's beef with Mala is because I feel like she's been playing pretty solidly so far.
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Post Post #907 (isolation #46) » Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:43 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 899, Lamees wrote:
In post 885, Something_Smart wrote:If angel hits framed town we have a scummy town dead, equivalent to a vig shot. A second vig shot or a blocked kill would put us way ahead.
But if angel dies and picks a town that nobody knows, we get nothing at all.
Who determines what a scummy target is?
I mean, in a theoretical sense it's someone that the town would otherwise have lynched. In practice, someone who is scumread by a majority is a pretty good approximation of that.
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Post Post #946 (isolation #47) » Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:07 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

Mala, what do you dislike about Leo?
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Post Post #983 (isolation #48) » Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:03 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 968, Lamees wrote:Anyway looks like something smart has got her fumbling over her own words. She first wanted to lynch leodanny, then got asked about leondanny and admits it would be a bad lynch and that leodanny is just lynch bait... wow (post 947)
Honestly I think that's perfectly consistent with her listing Leo as a possible suspect but not voting him despite him having the largest wagon.

Dunn feels like he's trying to instigate Mala on page 39 :?
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Post Post #990 (isolation #49) » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:56 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 984, Auro wrote:Something_Smart. What do you make of mine and Thor's earlier and recent exchanges?
The potential inconsistency stuff or earlier things? Because your recent discussion seems like a small thing that you are making big for no reason.
In post 989, Lamees wrote:Fair enough. What do you make of her AtE. Do you agree that scum cannot be busy? Does linking schedules prove town alignment?

If she survives to end game and is scum, do you think she'll just pop in now and then to defend herself with more proof that she's busy and will this be enough to win as scum? Or would she actually need to try to push wagons on town players?
I can't imagine that she actually said that scum can't be busy. That would be an absolutely moronic claim, and it sounds like the strawest of men. Linking schedules proves that she's genuinely frustrated about being scumread for activity, which means that her activity is not alignment indicative.

I can't really answer that last question. Busy or not, she does have a responsibility to play the game (or else replace out). It depends on how the game goes whether she might be able to skate by without doing enough. Regardless though, we should be reading her on what she has done and not assuming that she's ducking the thread if she doesn't post as much as you wish she would.
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Post Post #994 (isolation #50) » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:07 am

Post by Something_Smart »

You said "Do you agree that scum cannot be busy?" That really sounds like you're suggesting that somebody said that scum cannot be busy.

And when she quoted her schedule she directly stated that she was responding to Auro's point #4, in which Auro directly suggests that he thinks her lack of activity is scum-motivated.
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Post Post #996 (isolation #51) » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:17 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Auro did:
In post 948, Auro wrote:4. The lurking. I think she's getting into the game now, but posts like 778 rub me the wrong way when they're like, the only posts of the day. Her activity patterns do seem to be more when she's being attacked *shrug*
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Post Post #1028 (isolation #52) » Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:05 am

Post by Something_Smart »

UNVOTE:
Some reads or at least content from Leo would be nice
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Post Post #1037 (isolation #53) » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:10 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

I could definitely see Dunn being scum this game. His read and vote on Leo felt kind of lazy and I didn't like how he seemed to be intentionally riling up Mala.

That said I don't think my history of reading him has been > rand. So I don't really know how much that means.
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Post Post #1049 (isolation #54) » Sat Dec 22, 2018 4:36 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1039, Dunnstral wrote:SS I don't understand why you think I rile people up as scum
I don't think you'd specifically avoid it. If I were in Mala's position, already stressed out about my schedule and on the defensive because of it, I would have been pretty annoyed by your comments.

And I see potential scum motivation for it, if she's town and you think you might be able to get her to do something stupid.

Is this something that you would specifically never do as scum?
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Post Post #1072 (isolation #55) » Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:33 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1060, Creature wrote:
In post 13, DVa wrote:Setup is scumsided
Not anymore
:lol:
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Post Post #1141 (isolation #56) » Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:13 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

VOTE: Dunn

Dunn you should probably claim
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Post Post #1187 (isolation #57) » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:46 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I have no words for this.
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Post Post #1192 (isolation #58) » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:56 am

Post by Something_Smart »

It's not so much that, it's more that if rb is town and happened to mention a cop, you'd be taking the opportunity to frame him for TMI because you know there actually is one.
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Post Post #1193 (isolation #59) » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:56 am

Post by Something_Smart »

(in response to 1190)
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Post Post #1208 (isolation #60) » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:38 am

Post by Something_Smart »

VOTE: rb
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1209 (isolation #61) » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:39 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I don't think it's likely that rb and Auro are both town.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1367 (isolation #62) » Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:25 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I agree with all of those townreads except rb and Nako.

Also my scumgame looks nothing like this, you should know that :P
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Post Post #1370 (isolation #63) » Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:44 am

Post by Something_Smart »

It hasn't changed that much, here is my most recent scumgame. I replaced in late but it's still pretty representative of how I play.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1510 (isolation #64) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:04 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

UNVOTE:
I don't see what Creature sees but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt
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Post Post #1515 (isolation #65) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:26 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1513, rb wrote:that must be a really strong creature TR you have there
It's decently strong, yeah. Creature doesn't try this hard as scum.
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Post Post #1518 (isolation #66) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:38 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1516, Auro wrote:
In post 1515, Something_Smart wrote:It's decently strong, yeah. Creature doesn't try this hard as scum.
Cool, so you townread Creature and don't scumread RB anymore.
What are your other reads?
I still scumread rb, but I recognize that my opinion could be wrong.

I like Egix, Lamees and maybe DLA for town. Creature's reasoning on Nako makes some sense.
You could be scum if rb isn't, Thor could be scum, Leo no clue and I need to interact more with the slot.

Aside from Creature and Lamees my townreads aren't that strong, so odds are not bad that one of them is scum. Take this with a grain of salt.
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Post Post #1534 (isolation #67) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:50 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1519, Auro wrote:I'd like you to talk more about why I could be scum if RB isn't, and how you think Thor could be scum.
Your content, particularly your votes and pushes, haven't been that impressive. Especially if rb is town, you've treated the slot very much as a person you'd like to mislynch without getting too much of the blame. But if he is scum, then that cop TMI comment never comes from scum-you.

It's very hard to articulate why I feel Thor is scum. I feel like despite all his arguing and loudness he hasn't done much for the town, but he also hasn't gotten much pressure despite people saying they didn't like him. I don't know. I hate to say "gut" because I know it's a useless explanation... it's more like, given the way the game has been going, holistically it would make a lot of sense if he were scum.
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Post Post #1576 (isolation #68) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:15 am

Post by Something_Smart »

oof got prodded, hope everyone had a happy New Year's Eve.

I think we have to wait for replacements before doing anything.
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Post Post #1631 (isolation #69) » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:46 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1630, rb wrote:you need to have a vote in play, this is beyond fucking ridiculous that four people are not voting
We also have two vacant slots... the only purpose of a vote would be to contribute to a lynch and I don't want a lynch to happen right now.
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Post Post #1634 (isolation #70) » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:47 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1632, rb wrote:if it's between mala and thor i choose this
I would lean the same way, but I don't see why it has to be between those two.
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Post Post #1639 (isolation #71) » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:50 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1635, Malakitty wrote:I honestly don’t see why people don’t want to flip one of Auro and thor
I'm not necessarily opposed to Thor. I'd rather flip rb than Auro because an rb scumflip would basically clear Auro.

You might have said this before but I forgot. What is it about those two specifically?
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Post Post #1654 (isolation #72) » Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:38 am

Post by Something_Smart »

If we consolidate on Mala/Thor right now we're probably going to end up giving hammer to the replacements.
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Post Post #1674 (isolation #73) » Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:45 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

Just realized that both vacant slots have V/LA's listed that are ending soon.

@Mod: please don't modkill any players until their listed V/LA's are over


Hopefully then the game can pick up again.
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Post Post #1687 (isolation #74) » Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:32 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Sigh.
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Post Post #1712 (isolation #75) » Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:01 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

I don't see anything sparse about Creature's ISO.
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Post Post #1772 (isolation #76) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:59 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1753, Auro wrote:@Everyone: How does Thor almost get lynched 5 days before the deadline *without* ANY counter-wagon?
Do you guys seriously believe he's scum and his scumbuddies were bussing / downright ignoring that he was gonna get lynched?
If Thor is scum he clearly never lives to endgame so yes, it's possible that he is being bussed.
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Post Post #1773 (isolation #77) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:12 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Also, stop talking about what we will or won't do if BBmolla claims cop. Let him explain himself first.
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Post Post #1775 (isolation #78) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:05 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Thor665 (L-2)
: Malakitty, Creature, rb,
BBmolla
Malakitty (L-3)
: Thor665, Auro, Egix96
BBmolla (L-5)
: Lamees
Lamees (L-5)
: Succinct
Creature (L-5)
: Nako
Something_Smart
In post 1774, Auro wrote:You don't see what I was trying to do.
Good. Don't tell me, or talk about it anymore.
Last edited by MiniDeathStar on Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #1778 (isolation #79) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:25 am

Post by Something_Smart »

For reference, it's shown in .
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1780 (isolation #80) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:06 am

Post by Something_Smart »

What part of "stop talking about it" wasn't clear...
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1781 (isolation #81) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:08 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Just so you know, he hasn't been online since his last post in this game.
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Post Post #1783 (isolation #82) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:09 am

Post by Something_Smart »

How's it too late?
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Post Post #1784 (isolation #83) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:11 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Regardless of his alignment, he literally hasn't been online since he posted and . Check his profile.
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Post Post #1849 (isolation #84) » Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:42 am

Post by Something_Smart »

VOTE: Malakitty
I don't think the way BBmolla played that is more likely to come from scum. If he was scum planning to fakeclaim cop, he'd have just done it, and if he was scum who had planned to fakeclaim cop but then realized that his claim was a direct CC to Lamees, he'd have hard retracted the claim and said it was a joke.
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Post Post #1853 (isolation #85) » Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:57 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1851, Lamees wrote:
In post 1849, Something_Smart wrote:VOTE: Malakitty
I don't think the way BBmolla played that is more likely to come from scum. If he was scum planning to fakeclaim cop, he'd have just done it, and if he was scum who had planned to fakeclaim cop but then realized that his claim was a direct CC to Lamees, he'd have hard retracted the claim and said it was a joke.
We don't know what scum bbmolla would do. Whatever alignment he is he has faked and we need answers.

And why does scum malakitty defend town bbmolla?
Why do scum ever defend town? Whiteknighting for towncred. I can see scum thinking that BBmolla will be an easy mislynch... and if he is town there's certainly scum in the people who pushed him today or yesterday. Especially since she'd know he was fakeclaiming, and she'd know that he'd get a backlash if he admitted he wasn't a cop.
In post 1852, Lamees wrote:
In post 1850, Nako wrote:Let's all agree that I spewed town with that nightkill.
Disagree.
It definitely makes both Nako and rb look better.
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Post Post #1857 (isolation #86) » Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:12 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

Bragging about how you scumread a town player and then voting another town player and expecting to be townread for it...?

Not seeing it.
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Post Post #1858 (isolation #87) » Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:15 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

The Creature NK makes Nako better because he said she was town, not because she said he was scum. Pretending to scumread a widely townread player and then NK'ing them is not uncommon, and Creature was not going to be lynched as long as a few people familiar with his meta (which I think is most of us) were alive.
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Post Post #1861 (isolation #88) » Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:33 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

There's a flip side to that though. If you let yourself get too scared of WIFOM, you'll miss valuable information. You can just play off the probabilities and ignore the WIFOM, and by definition you'll be right a certain proportion of the time.

In any event, it's about the most concrete information we have to work with here. Creature was probably the strongest voice keeping rb alive, and he was (I think) the only person with an actual towncase for Nako. Does that mean they'd never kill him? No. But it means they're less likely to.
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Post Post #1895 (isolation #89) » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:15 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1893, Egix96 wrote:NGL this actually makes me not want to lynch you anymore.
The sentiment is towny, true, but there's no way to know if she really felt that way about self-hammering. She did mention it yesterday, but it was when nobody was around and a NL was all but guaranteed. It's easy to say you were willing to self-hammer if needed, it's another to actually self-vote and leave it in the hands of fate.

So I don't think that post, or anything she's said about self-hammering, is hard to imagine from scum.

And I certainly don't think you should be voting Nako here. We need to resolve conflicts with the active players before MYLO. The only acceptable votes are Mala, Thor, Auro, and BBmolla.
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Post Post #1931 (isolation #90) » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:33 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

I mean... if we ignore the possibility for a doc and the possibility for a GF, I can see how it would be a good idea, because if her target is town it works exactly the same as lynching said target and treating Lamees as confirmed town, which is in advantage because she's not actually confirmed town. If she's scum or she hits scum it's obviously better.

That said, we can't ignore the possibility of a GF.

So Lamees. Please knock it off. If you want to hang BBmolla, explain how you know it was a serious claim and not a joke or a bait.
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Post Post #1933 (isolation #91) » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:34 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

Although I really don't like , especially since he seems to be assuming he'll die if Lamees smites him.
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Post Post #1955 (isolation #92) » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:15 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Sick of mod replacing people who are on V/LA.

Mod, if Thor comes back can he keep the slot?


If not I'll just hammer it. No point subjecting a replacement to that.
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Post Post #1978 (isolation #93) » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:01 am

Post by Something_Smart »

We still have 5 days, there's no way we'll no-lynch again.

If the mod confirms she's still replacing Thor, I'll vote there.
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Post Post #1988 (isolation #94) » Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:31 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Mod answered my question in PM, the answer is no.
VOTE: Thor
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Post Post #1990 (isolation #95) » Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:06 am

Post by Something_Smart »

How do you figure?
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Post Post #1993 (isolation #96) » Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:20 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Immortal is GF. Angel's smite is equivalent to a cop check and kill if the result is guilty.
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Post Post #2012 (isolation #97) » Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:12 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Hi, Ruby.

Sorry you replaced into a dead slot :(
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Post Post #2024 (isolation #98) » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:58 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2018, Ruby Red wrote:huh i don't townread SS

so that's a bad start
Why not?
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Post Post #2027 (isolation #99) » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:39 am

Post by Something_Smart »

"Floating by" is pretty much my default mode though... it's not as if I ever say as town "this is where I'm going to do something town-motivated, and then I'll be townread for it." It's more like, I'll react to whatever is happening that's worth reacting to. And at a few times during this game, that hasn't been an awful lot.
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Post Post #2047 (isolation #100) » Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:43 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2037, Succinct wrote:For a start, .
Tell me more.
In post 2045, Egix96 wrote:Not sure what to make of Smart currently. His defence seems to mainly be predicated on self-meta, which is... problematic, to say the least.
My defense
to Ruby
is predicated on meta, since Ruby knows my meta and is making a read on me based on it.

I wouldn't ever offer a defense that wasn't based on meta, either. There would be no point in doing so.
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Post Post #2049 (isolation #101) » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:05 am

Post by Something_Smart »

That was to Creature, who also knows me well enough to metaread me...
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Post Post #2053 (isolation #102) » Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:52 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

Nako is not a good lynch.
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Post Post #2058 (isolation #103) » Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:09 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

I don't want to go to MYLO with Mala/Thorslot/Auro/BBmolla all alive.

I also don't think Nako kills Creature there and then draws attention to it.
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Post Post #2062 (isolation #104) » Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:07 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

Ruby, have you ever played with scum-me? We've played so much I would have thought you had, but I can't remember any times off the top of my head.
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Post Post #2065 (isolation #105) » Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:16 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

That's a dumb question.
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Post Post #2076 (isolation #106) » Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:55 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1370, Something_Smart wrote:It hasn't changed that much, here is my most recent scumgame. I replaced in late but it's still pretty representative of how I play.
I think Lamees is town, irrespective of the fact that scum know town's roles, angel is a bad fakeclaim and I thought the way she played around the claim was genuine.
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Post Post #2089 (isolation #107) » Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:10 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1388, Creature wrote:I'm definitely not townreading Nako off her predecessor. I've seen her doing three soulreads and I was like "nah, scum wouldn't pull three townreads and use soulread as reason".

I hate her lurking afterwards, but plenty of players are lurking nowadays so I gotta sort through them.
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: Egix96
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: Auro
Nako, Leodanny, Malakitty
In post 1424, Egix96 wrote:
In post 1365, Creature wrote:Nako is the other town
but_why.gif
The soulreads
Stop voting Nako.
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Post Post #2090 (isolation #108) » Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:12 am

Post by Something_Smart »

VOTE: Mala
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Post Post #2092 (isolation #109) » Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:02 am

Post by Something_Smart »

We have 16 hours. It's definitely possible to wagon Mala.
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Post Post #2095 (isolation #110) » Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:55 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Yeah but why would she kill Creature then?
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Post Post #2129 (isolation #111) » Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:53 am

Post by Something_Smart »

What?
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Post Post #2132 (isolation #112) » Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:54 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Yep, unless scum bus.

I'm thinking Auro is most likely scum atm.
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Post Post #2135 (isolation #113) » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:18 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I can't imagine there are any PR's left, but I guess we can set a massclaim order.

Although since scum know which PR's town has, it probably doesn't matter.
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Post Post #2146 (isolation #114) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:57 am

Post by Something_Smart »

VT, Ruby next
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Post Post #2150 (isolation #115) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:46 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Lamees (L-3)
: Succinct, Lamees
Auro, Nako, rb, Egix96, Something_Smart,
Ruby Red
Immortal is a huge issue though.

How confident are you in your ability to hit scum?
Last edited by MiniDeathStar on Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #2151 (isolation #116) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:51 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2147, Lamees wrote:Remember when bbmolla claimed cop.
You think that's why he died?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2154 (isolation #117) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:20 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Oh, right.

I feel like we must be able to do better than a 28% chance of not immediately losing...
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2155 (isolation #118) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:21 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I guess it could be because they thought he was a different PR, but idk what that could be.

Guess we'll see how massclaim goes.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2160 (isolation #119) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:15 am

Post by Something_Smart »

There's a rule against provable randomness, but there's no rule against unprovable randomness.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2162 (isolation #120) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:25 am

Post by Something_Smart »

There's definitely nothing wrong with using random.org.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2164 (isolation #121) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:34 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Yeah.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2168 (isolation #122) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:18 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Okay.

Time for some math.

Spoiler: Skip this if you don't like math
First of all, if a 3-point role is picked last, the probability is just all the role probabilities multiplied together, because any role was available until the end.
If a 1-point or 2-point role is picked last, the final probability must be modified because 3-point roles (and possibly 2-point roles) weren't available to pick last.

Probability of getting Priest/Witch Hunter/Angel with 7 points:
2 ways with Priest last: 2 * (20/100 * 10/100 * 25/100)
2 ways with Witch Hunter last: 2 * (25/100 * 10/100 * 20/60)
2 ways with Angel last: 2 * (25/100 * 20/100 * 10/60)
(These last two work out to be the same.)
Total probability = 1/100 + 1/60 + 1/60 = 13/300.

Probability of getting Priest/Witch Hunter/Angel/Trickster with 8 points:
6 ways with Priest last: 6 * (20/100 * 10/100 * 10/100 * 25/100)
6 ways with Witch Hunter last: 6 * (25/100 * 10/100 * 10/100 * 20/60)
6 ways with Angel last: 6 * (25/100 * 20/100 * 10/100 * 10/60)
6 ways with Trickster last: 6 * (25/100 * 20/100 * 10/100 * 10/20)

Total probability = 3/1000 + 1/200 + 1/200 + 3/200 = 7/250.

Probability that the setup includes a trickster, given that it includes a priest, witch hunter, and angel = (7/250) / (13/300 + 7/250) = 39.3%.

It'd be nice if someone else mathematically inclined could check my work, although the exact number doesn't matter that much.

The probability of Egix's claim being true, assuming Lamees' claim is true and all else is equal, is 39.3%. This does ignore the probability that Egix would fakeclaim it, but I think this assumes that she would always fakeclaim it if the setup is Priest/Witch Hunter/Angel, which at the very least is not a ridiculous assumption.

So Lamees, if you do want to throw out all reads and leave it completely up to chance, the best option by far would be to hang Egix, which would in a vacuum give us a 60.7% chance of hitting scum.

That said, I still don't like that idea. Given that a random person from my POV has a 42.9% chance of being scum, and that raises to 50.0% if I assume that Lamees is town (as I have done in my calculations), I'd bet that my top scumread has a better than 60.7% chance of being scum.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2169 (isolation #123) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:31 am

Post by Something_Smart »

If there are any other PR's, just claim in your next post.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2172 (isolation #124) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:38 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

Auro.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2177 (isolation #125) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:14 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

What are you talking about?
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Post Post #2182 (isolation #126) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:39 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

I didn't even believe 2155, I still don't. Scum don't try to kill commuters. I was literally just trying to think of why BBmolla might possibly have died given that I (and I think most people) thought he was a pretty decent scum possibility.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2184 (isolation #127) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:45 pm

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I didn't know anything. That's a leading claim. I suggested that maybe there was another PR hiding that scum wanted to kill, which didn't turn out to be true.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2194 (isolation #128) » Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:19 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2189, Auro wrote:The weird NK actually points to town!Me here, since scum!Me would *always* rather kill Red especially after she said she's reconsidering her read on me.
Unless if you two are partners...
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2197 (isolation #129) » Thu Jan 24, 2019 10:16 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I'm pretty sure the issue between Thor and Auro's playstyles was completely genuine and not related to either of their alignments.

Is there a specific interaction that you don't think is scum/scum?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2200 (isolation #130) » Thu Jan 24, 2019 10:32 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Lamees (L-4)
: Succinct
Auro, Nako, rb, Egix96, Something_Smart,
Ruby Red, Lamees
You could also look at Excalibur.
Last edited by the worst on Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #2293 (isolation #131) » Fri Jan 25, 2019 3:07 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2207, Ruby Red wrote:i would scumread myself, playing pretty lazily.
I don't know what to make of this post in MYLO.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2302 (isolation #132) » Fri Jan 25, 2019 4:03 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2234, rb wrote:everyone: pick your preferred lynch: auro/nako/succinct
To be honest, at this point I wouldn't trust myself to pick correctly.

Succinct has been playing exactly like scum, but I've seen stubborn townies play that way.
Auro was originally the only one on the Mala wagon I didn't townread, but that kind of PoE is very shaky, and I don't know if he and Succinct could be partners.
I still do think Nako is town. But I'm a little bit afraid that the Creature NK was WIFOM for that specific reason.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2304 (isolation #133) » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:15 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Those reads are so terrible, it's unreal.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2305 (isolation #134) » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:16 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I kinda feel like we have to hang Succinct here because if he's town we've already lost...
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2319 (isolation #135) » Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:24 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I think you're right but I need to figure out Succinct first. Do you still think Succinct and I are both town?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2320 (isolation #136) » Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:26 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I think Succinct is guilty of the same thing he was accusing Auro of. He came in saying he was definitely willing to vote Auro, but now that other people have expressed a willingness to lynch Auro, he's changed his tune.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2322 (isolation #137) » Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:51 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Your solve makes no sense at all though.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2324 (isolation #138) » Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:54 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Do you seriously think I'm scum with Succinct?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2328 (isolation #139) » Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:21 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2325, Auro wrote:I have independent reasons to scumread you two; and there's no reason to believe Succint isn't scum with you.
Gee, how about the fact that he's been pushing on me literally since he replaced in. :igmeou:
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2337 (isolation #140) » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:23 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2333, Egix96 wrote:
In post 2318, Lamees wrote:Everyone has auro in their scumpool somewhere. This isn't coincidence. Let's just go for it.
I'm just gonna go ahead and say it right now, Auro is town.
If I am wrong, you can meme on me in postgame.
How confident are you?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2350 (isolation #141) » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:36 am

Post by Something_Smart »

No one (L-4)
: Lamees
Succinct (L-4)
: rb
Something_Smart (L-4)
: Succinct
Auro, Nako, Egix96, Something_Smart,
Ruby Red
I'm willing to lynch Succinct.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2362 (isolation #142) » Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:26 am

Post by Something_Smart »

-----------[]

VOTE: Succinct
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2381 (isolation #143) » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:22 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

GG.

I'll be the first to admit we got lucky, hanging one major PR D1 and killing the other N1. (Persivul was killed not because of a PR read but because he was universally townread. I actually had a pretty strong Witch Hunter read on DVa/DarkLightA which confused me when Dunn flipped, otherwise that slot would have been the kill :P )

All the people needing to be replaced were annoying and hurt town cohesion as well.

Flavor and moderation were beyond excellent, of course :]
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2382 (isolation #144) » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:24 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2365, MiniDeathStar wrote:
Ruby Red
(villager)
(Thor665)

Malakitty
(villager)
(InfernoDragon18)

Nako
(villager)
(NotNova)

Succinct
(villager)
(Leodanny)

BBmolla
(villager)
(DarkLightA, DVa)

Creature
(villager)
(bristep123, YyottaCat)

Persivul
(priest)

Dunnstral
(witch hunter)

Lamees
(angel)

Egix96
(trickster)

Auro
(immortal)

rb
(vampire)

Something_Smart
(warlock)
Whoa, just realized this. Every single VT slot was replaced at least once, and none of the town PR's or scum were replaced. :o
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Post Post #2391 (isolation #145) » Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:43 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

I reread the scum PT and I forgot just how much we tried to bus but town wouldn't let us. :lol:
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2393 (isolation #146) » Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:57 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

Oh also, Creature's meme in the dead chat is excellent.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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