Mini Normal 2054: Winter's Sacrifice [Game Over]

[Mewtaph]

VC 2.02

votes

[5] BuJaber

:

rosterfoster (393), Persivul (397), Dannflor (423), Egix96 (427), JunkoChan (451)

[1] Sashaddin

:

Flubbernugget (421)

[5] Not Voting

:

xwing, Gamma Emerald, Sashaddin, BuJaber, Haschel Cedricson

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

The Day 2 deadline is in

: (expired on 2019-02-10 15:00:00)

Mod Notes

:

[BuJaber]

This is far too early to even consider ending the day let alone posting intent. But whatever I'm VT.

Sasha was one of the scummiest in day 1. I didn't mention him as he wasn't on the wagon, and I think 1 scum would definitely be on the wagon so I was looking there first.

While a few people did post willingness to vote sasha that wagon never gained much traction, but then we had that early gamma wagon that went poof and xwing and tchill wagons started competing eventually leading to tchill. It is very possible we had a situation where scum wanted to move suspicion away from sasha, but their plan to save scum failed anyway when town lynched tchill.

And I think if sasha is scum then gamma and xwing become much more likely to flip town. I'm more convinced of scum joining a day 1 scum lynch wagon though based on past games so let's hunt for that scum first so we have more associations.

[Dannflor]

Who do you think is scum?

Drop all your VCA and wagon analysis. Who is scummiest to you off of posting alone and why?

[BuJaber]

The vca and wagon analysis is additional info we now have, it's meaningless to ignore them now. I found slaxx scummy, but he flipped town for example. I think gamma is scummy but that doesn't fit if sashaddin is scum. You have my reads on day 1 in my day 1 posts. Those were pure of the additional info.

If you just want all the current reads in one post for clarity,

Town or townlean: {haschel, dann, persivul, junko}
Null but not scum if sasha is: {gamma, xwing}
Scum or scumlean: {sashaddin, roster, egix, flubber}

[Sashaddin]

and I think 1 scum would definitely be on the wagon so I was looking there first.

How many scums do you think on your wagon right now?

[Sashaddin]

This is far too early to even consider ending the day let alone posting intent.

A hammer gives a different kind of pressure to the wagon than an earlier vote. So far, I didn't see the event I was waiting for and you have done a good job of redirecting the attention away from you (on me!) so you're kinda off the hook for me right now.

[Dannflor]

If you just want all the current reads in one post for clarity,

Town or townlean: {haschel, dann, persivul, junko}
Null but not scum if sasha is: {gamma, xwing}
Scum or scumlean: {sashaddin, roster, egix, flubber}

Yes, thank you this is what I want. Explain your Egix scum read?

[Sashaddin]

Meh. Sashaddin vs. Junko is feeling more town vs. town.

(also you guys scum read each other, it's fine, no need for attacks)

You're right I guess. I could see her as town if I really understood how she thinks. But the hammer attempt on day1 is still suspiciously scummy to me.

[Dannflor]

But the hammer attempt on day1 is still suspiciously scummy to me.

Think it through. Why would scum want to do something that draws so much attention? What's Junko's motivation to quick hammer her own buddy before there's even a claim and a chance for him to survive? 9/10 that move comes from frustrated or YOLO!town than scum from my experience.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Fuck, work has been bad. I promise I will get caught up tonight.

[Egix96]

Confusion

Also, I feel somewhat better towards Xwing today.

Other scum may well be Sash, but also 430 from Junko makes me feel bad. It would be so odd for scum to say something like that though, so IDK. Just why would a townie vote for someone they think's town? When they have actual scum reads.

Personally I would feel more than "somewhat" better re:xwing, considering that it seemed to me like Tchill was trying to send that guy to the shadow realm.

"Other scum may well be Sash" Nah, I really don't think that's likely. Lynching scum Day 1, and then managing to have w/w wagons early on on Day 2? Chance of that happening is slim to none.

[Egix96]

why have you changed your mind on me, after i called you out on it? it only makes my paranoia of you stronger..

You have returned to Xwing from our last game. I'm still not overly happy (though this now comes completely from my gut to your start), but people play better/worse all the time, so I'm no longer convinced by the meta reasons.

Nvm, you're obviously not reading into Day 1 pushes.

[Sashaddin]

But the hammer attempt on day1 is still suspiciously scummy to me.

Think it through. Why would scum want to do something that draws so much attention? What's Junko's motivation to quick hammer her own buddy before there's even a claim and a chance for him to survive? 9/10 that move comes from frustrated or YOLO!town than scum from my experience.

I know quickhammers have been done to deny town the opportunity to debate strategy by forcing the day to end abruptly. Not often but I've seen it.
Regarding the attention, I survived my last scum game by doing the opposite of what a prudent player would have done so here I was open to anything.

[Egix96]

Flubber could also be scum here because he was the only one that voted for tchill but then unvoted.

Uhhh

You do realize I had all of two minutes to hammer after the claim right?

Hmmmm maybe I'm confbiasing

I'll think about it.

For now I think Bujaber is still the best lynch over Sashaddin

I can imagine that interaction being w/w tbh.

[xwing]

Meh. Sashaddin vs. Junko is feeling more town vs. town.

(also you guys scum read each other, it's fine, no need for attacks)

^seconding..

Confusion

Also, I feel somewhat better towards Xwing today.

Other scum may well be Sash, but also 430 from Junko makes me feel bad. It would be so odd for scum to say something like that though, so IDK. Just why would a townie vote for someone they think's town? When they have actual scum reads.

Personally I would feel more than "somewhat" better re:xwing, considering that it seemed to me like Tchill was trying to send that guy to the shadow realm.

"Other scum may well be Sash" Nah, I really don't think that's likely. Lynching scum Day 1, and then managing to have w/w wagons early on on Day 2? Chance of that happening is slim to none.

egix, how do you feel about roster?
===
re: roster, i still dont feel good about this slot..though i admit i may be in a tunnel..
i think the buj wagon having no resistance at all is a red flag, so i want more time to discuss..can someone please unvote?

But the hammer attempt on day1 is still suspiciously scummy to me.

Think it through. Why would scum want to do something that draws so much attention? What's Junko's motivation to quick hammer her own buddy before there's even a claim and a chance for him to survive? 9/10 that move comes from frustrated or YOLO!town than scum from my experience.

I know quickhammers have been done to deny town the opportunity to debate strategy by forcing the day to end abruptly. Not often but I've seen it.
Regarding the attention, I survived my last scum game by doing the opposite of what a prudent player would have done so here I was open to anything.

both makes sense, but im more inclined to believe town!JC..

[Egix96]

egix, how do you feel about roster?

I'm really not sure atm, he could go either way. Depends on which way BuJ flips.

can someone please unvote?

I'll do it.

UNVOTE: BuJ

[xwing]

intent to hammer

im conflicted on flubber..the vca looks bad, but he did give the intent to hammer..and his ISO didnt look bad..i just cant seem to remember what he's said so yeah..prolly wise to wait for other's opinion (ahem, @HC)..
i got scum leans but im not too confident on them all..
{roster, gamma, buj, flubbs}
do you guys think there's at least one scum on buj wagon?

pedit: thanks egix..

[Egix96]

But the hammer attempt on day1 is still suspiciously scummy to me.

Think it through. Why would scum want to do something that draws so much attention? What's Junko's motivation to quick hammer her own buddy before there's even a claim and a chance for him to survive? 9/10 that move comes from frustrated or YOLO!town than scum from my experience.

I know quickhammers have been done to deny town the opportunity to debate strategy by forcing the day to end abruptly. Not often but I've seen it.
Regarding the attention, I survived my last scum game by doing the opposite of what a prudent player would have done so here I was open to anything.

Btw, I saw this and decided to have a quick skim through Sasha's ISO from Mini 2044 (I believe that's the game he's referring to there). His play from that game seems to have been a bit less awkward, like he had more of an idea of what he was doing. Makes me feel a bit better about him, but I will say that the phrasing "my last scum game" seems just a teeny bit slippy.

[xwing]

buj wagon for reference (before egix unvote):
=====
[5] BuJaber: rosterfoster (393), Persivul (397), Dannflor (423), Egix96 (427), JunkoChan (451)
add Sasha and Xwing for giving intent to hammer..

[Dannflor]

I can imagine that interaction being w/w tbh.

Me too. But I'm worried I'm conf biasing seeing that because a Flubber/BuJaber solve feels too easy.

[Dannflor]

i think the buj wagon having no resistance at all is a red flag, so i want more time to discuss..can someone please unvote?

How easily the wagon was built means either two things:

A. We've got scum and his buddy Flubber is desperately trying to build a counterwagon on Sash.

B. Scum is completely content to let this lynch go through as it is an easy mislynch.

The real question is what lynch gives us the most information regardless of flip? A BuJaber lynch could implicate Roster or Flubber depending on the flip. Going after someone like Gamma at this point isn't really going to give us information to go on for Day 3.

Like, our pool of suspects is just rather low and I think BuJaber is both the scummiest slot and the one that gives us the most information. I still think we should keep discussion going for a while as it may help solidify a definite town bloc, but I don't really see a better lynch candidate than BuJaber

[Dannflor]

but I will say that the phrasing "my last scum game" seems just a teeny bit slippy.

Meh, that's a real stretch. My last x game just means my most recent game is that alignment. I don't know how else he'd refer to his latest scum game regardless of his alignment this game.

[Dannflor]

I think xwing and Junko are my top town reads now. Egix is creeping up there two despite my earlier paranoia.

[Dannflor]

im conflicted on flubber..the vca looks bad, but he did give the intent to hammer..

The intent to hammer was to get a claim out of Tchill, who knows if he was planning to actually hammer after that? Also, an intent to hammer on an already doomed slot isn't exactly AI.

[Egix96]

but I will say that the phrasing "my last scum game" seems just a teeny bit slippy.

Meh, that's a real stretch. My last x game just means my most recent game is that alignment. I don't know how else he'd refer to his latest scum game regardless of his alignment this game.

Hmm okay, I was interpreting the word "last" to mean "previous", that's why I thought that.