Micro 845: The Room Odds - Game Over

[Dunnstral]

Because Plotinus is scum and now he gets to manipulate Nancy in a pt

Scum is still in you/Plot/SS likely

You think there’s the possibility 0 scum were on the Gamma wagon?

The opposite is more true than that.

I didn't say I think the scum is you 3 exactly

But it's clear themajority of scum are in that bloc, I count on 2 being there

[Flavor Leaf]

Keep in mind that SS never voted for that 3 person room

I am very much aware of this fact.

[Flavor Leaf]

Because Plotinus is scum and now he gets to manipulate Nancy in a pt

Scum is still in you/Plot/SS likely

You think there’s the possibility 0 scum were on the Gamma wagon?

The opposite is more true than that.

I didn't say I think the scum is you 3 exactly

But it's clear themajority of scum are in that bloc, I count on 2 being there

But 33% of this relies on 2 scum being off the wagon, and you’re going after Plot.

Why is Plot over SS for you at this point?

[Flavor Leaf]

Youcould put me in place of Plot as well, but Plot was like a placeholder for “off the wagon”

[Nancy Drew 39]

Wait wait wait.

Why the hell did that room come up and hammer away, when Persivul, Ruby, My Room was on L-1?

Nancy can’t get into another room now until the post restriction is up.

Can you please explain all of this to me? I’m still be bit rusty on the mechanics here. Thanks.

You get into rooms (neighborhoods) with people based off of people voting for them. The first 48 hours of the room’s existence, you cannot talk to or even bring up the person you’re in a room with.

I was trying to get a Persivul/Ruby/Flavor one, and it was at L-1 happening this entire time, and you guys snuck it from me, because when you have a post restriction, you can’t join in a new room.

Meaning that 3 person room happening can’t happen for at least 48 hours now.

On top of that, 3 player rooms take more people to make happen, so i highly doubt its gonna happen, anyways.

I game day? - the post restriction?

[Nancy Drew 39]

Because Plotinus is scum and now he gets to manipulate Nancy in a pt

Scum is still in you/Plot/SS likely

You think there’s the possibility 0 scum were on the Gamma wagon?

The opposite is more true than that.

I didn't say I think the scum is you 3 exactly

But it's clear themajority of scum are in that bloc, I count on 2 being there

What is your reasoning for scumreading those 3 slots?

[Something_Smart]

Keep in mind that SS never voted for that 3 person room

I vote for a room if and only if everyone included in the room has voted for it.

[Nancy Drew 39]

How did Gamma ever get mislynched here? She was bleedingly obvtown.

[Flavor Leaf]

The post restriction is 48 hours after the room is made, so you can’t bring up Plotinus or talk to him until BNL announces your post restriction to be up.

You can still vote/unvote them.

Yeah, Idk how Gamma was lynched. I was inactive during the time

[Flavor Leaf]

Your slot went from Gamma, to try and get me to go to Clemency with them, then went back to Gamma when I stayed on Persivul, which when Persoivul tried getting a room with you is why I wanted to be in it.

[BNL]

Vote Count 2.4

Flavor Leaf (1): Persivul
Persivul (1): Flavor Leaf
Clemency (1): Plotinus
Plotinus (1): Dunnstral

Not Voting (3): Clemency, Nancy Drew 39, Something_Smart

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
The deadline is 7 February 4am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2019-02-07 04:00:00)

Rooms and Post Restictions

Nancy Drew 39, Plotinus ((expired on 2019-02-04 01:59:20))

Plotinus, Something_Smart

Spoiler: Day 1

Plotinus, Flavor Leaf
Something Smart, tris
Gamma Emerald, Clemency
Persivul, Gamma Emerald, Dunnstral
Nancy Drew 39, Clemency
Plotinus, tris
Something_Smart, Flavor Leaf

Get a Room

Persivul, Flavor Leaf (1): Persivul

(R-2)

Not Voting (6): Clemency, Nancy Drew 39, Plotinus, Something_Smart, Flavor Leaf, Dunnstral

It takes 2n-1 votes to get a n player Room.

Infractions

Plotinus: 1

Mod notes:
Nancy Drew 39 and Plotinus have gotten a Room
The Persivul, Nancy Drew 39, Flavor Leaf Room is now invalid

[Plotinus]

Because Plotinus is scum and now he gets to manipulate Nancy in a pt

Scum is still in you/Plot/SS likely

Why is it my fault when I quite clearly pointed out to Nancy that Persivul and Flavour had wanted the room with her first and that I was happy to go second? Are you reading the game or just pushing what you want to push whether it makes sense or not?

VOTE: Dunnstral

!INFRACTION! - You cannot talk to or about Nancy Drew 39 right now

[Plotinus]

shit i am really bad at remembering my post restriction.

What I meant to say is "Why is it my fault when I quite clearly pointed to everybody involved that there was a room with Persivul and Flavour in the works that we almost had enough votes for and that I was happy to wait until after that."

[Persivul]

Get a room: Persivul, Flavor

I'll go back to including Ruby if we get the votes, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

^Reminder

[Plotinus]

I am happy to vote for your room but in 1 day + 6 hours you might be able to have that 3 person room if the 3 of you still want it.

[Persivul]

I doubt that it makes any sense for any scum to be on the counterwagon, so Persivul wagon is probably all town.

Please tell me you're not serious about this.

[Persivul]

So, why is Flavor the lead wagon?

Because he came in with an illogical push on me - saying that Plotinus being alive indicates I'm scum.

Does it really make any sense for scum!Flavor to not be on the town!Gamma Wagon in this setup? I think Plotinus, Clem, Flavor are all mechanically spewed town by this. VCA never lies.

Please tell me you're not serious about this.

[Persivul]

Awesome, how do we go about getting a room then? Do I bold it or something?

Why do you think a room with Plot will help you solve the game better than a room with me and flavor? If you think I'm scum and flavor's town, wouldn't you like the chance for the both of you to grill me?

[Persivul]

Why is it my fault when I quite clearly pointed out to Nancy that Persivul and Flavour had wanted the room with her first and that I was happy to go second?

You could have said "No." If you were interested in the game being solved, I'd think you'd want a me/Nancy/Flavor room.

[Dunnstral]

Let's talk about the other mechanic. It seems scum only want to discuss the rooms and buddy up in there, while ignoring evidence to fit their agenda of a push on me (looking at Plotinus here)


X A B C D E F G H I Total
A X 1 2 6 9 3 6 1 8 36



D Clemency
E

Gamma Emerald

G Nancy Drew 39
I Flavor Leaf

These are the four players I have sizeable odds of matching with, if I were scum. Gamma is dead and town. Does anybody here think that I'm scum with Nancy Drew? No? Everybodies townreading her except for SS off of her not understanding the setup? Got it, so that pair is not likely.

Does anybody think I'm scum with Flavor leaf? Interested in hearing this one.

I assume that if you think I'm scum, you think I'm probably scum with Clemency. More likely, you didn't think, and shame on you.

Now let's talk about the kill

B tris

My chance of being scum with her was 1. She wasn't leaning in a direction where she would be voting me, either. You know who else she had a low chance of being scum with, and who she wasn't pushing on? Clemency, with a 2. Why does this scum team kill Tris?

If your answer was "wifom" can you explain why we went in hard on this aspect of the setup but neglected to do much inside of/forming neighborhoods?

Now, let's look at the odds. Let's assume for a moment that Nancy is town, because her slot is obvious town. Who is most likely, statistically, to be scum right now?

So let's look at the numbers. Let's take out the numbers B and E, because they're dead. And G, because they're obvious town.

My odds of being scum drop by 16, from 36 to 20. Of course, other people drop as well, but in my case the dip is substantial. So substantial that I shouldn't even be getting votes right now by anybody who cares enough about the setup and townreads Nancy, like Plotinus.

Out of that 20, 8 of those points - that's 40% - is the pair of me and flavor leaf. If your name is Flavor leaf, and you think Nancy drew is town, that means I have a chance of 12 of being scum in yours eyes. Of course, he's not voting me, so let's get to more relevant numbers.

Speaking of which, let's look at his numbers. He started at 38, only 2 points higher than me, so we started at relatively even footing. Taking out those 3, he drops by 7. His number is now 31. He is 55% more likely to be scum than me. That's just math, and unlike the starting numbers it's too substantial to ignore. Why do you think Plotinus has ONLY talked about neighborhoods?

Incidentally, a team of Flavor leaf and Plotinus has odds of 4. If your name is Flavor leaf, and you think Nancy drew is town, that means Plotinus has a chance of 27 of being scum in your eyes.

Now, let's look at Persival. Starting chance of 41 at being scum, higher than the previous 2, but not so much that it was worth determining the lynch off this info. Take out the 3 from before, and that number drops by 19. That's 22.

If you name is flavor leaf, you have a chance of 7 of being scum with persival, Which means, in your eyes, he only has a chance of 15 of being scum.

So the numbers, unbiased, assuming nancy is town:
Me: 20
Persival: 22
Plotinus: 31

And here there are from Flavor Leaf's point of view. Again, assuming nancy is town:
Me: 12
Persival: 15
Plotnius: 27

...which begs the question:

Flavor leaf, what is your read on Nancy?

[Dunnstral]

Nancy, from your point of view, with the only assumption that you're town yourself:

Me: 14
Persival: 18
Plotinus: 29

[Dunnstral]

I doubt that it makes any sense for any scum to be on the counterwagon, so Persivul wagon is probably all town.

Nancy, from your point of view, with the only assumption that you're town yourself:

Me: 14
Persival: 18
Plotinus: 29

Clemency: 26
Flavor Leaf: 30

[Dunnstral]

I actually messed up the number for myself, I'm a 20 for you, I counted your number twice. Persival is a 22

So it should look like this:

Me: 20
Persival: 22
Clemency: 26
Plotinus: 29
Flavor Leaf: 30

I still think this is sufficient for you to rethink your reads

[Dunnstral]

And how about instead of listening to scummy plotinus in a 1 on 1 situation - where he's statistically, from your point of view, one of the most likely people to be scum, you come out here and play with the whole thread?

Do you see the scum motivation in Plotinus swooping in, stopping your other neighborhood from forming, and talking to you in private where he can manipulate you without other people seeing what he's doing and

hiding information from you

[Flavor Leaf]

I didn’t like Nancy not hammering our 3 person room. Sure, she stated she was oblivious about it, but in conjunction with that room fiasco, and already thinking Ruby was scummy, I’m lean scum on Nancy.