Micro 845: The Room Odds - Game Over

[Flavor Leaf]

However, Nancy’ll likely obvtown if town, so I’m not too worried.

Get A Room: Persivul/Flavor

[Flavor Leaf]

I have expressed my paranoia in my rooms.

I feel like I’m being setup as the fall guy tomorrow. Not today, for tomorrow specifically.

[Dunnstral]

You guys might now be wondering if I've looked at these numbers from my point of view to influence my opinion. Nope, I haven't. I can say that I'm confident enough in my analysis of the gamestate that I'm willing to lynch past any statistical differences, and so it won't be all too insightful for me to do it personally. To put it in simple terms, even if I calculate the odds from my point of view, I trust my own reads more than any statistical analysis can provide, and I certainly trust it more than your guys reads (you guys aren't as good at this game as you think you are - As proof, none of you ever indicated that you'd stopped to think about statistical probability, you all got all wrapped up in Plotinus'

distraction

with the neighborhoods. This is me caring enough about the game to lay it all out on a silver platter for you guys. And no Something Smart, you don't get to come in here and prod dodge with a naked question about my reads. This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you. I don't think you're town, or if you are it doesn't matter and you can reflect on what you did wrong after I drag your dead body across the finish line.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Your slot went from Gamma, to try and get me to go to Clemency with them, then went back to Gamma when I stayed on Persivul, which when Persoivul tried getting a room with you is why I wanted to be in it.

I’d be fine being in a room with you but not with Persivul. He has been rude, insulting and arguably absive to much of the playerlist,.

Yeah, I will strenuously object to that - being in a room with him.

[Dunnstral]

I didn’t like Nancy not hammering our 3 person room. Sure, she stated she was oblivious about it, but in conjunction with that room fiasco, and already thinking Ruby was scummy, I’m lean scum on Nancy.

Alright, is there anyone you can say is confident town?

[Dunnstral]

And don't think I'm defending Clemency. I don't care if we lynch him either, and if he's scum guess what? The most likely team in the game is Clemency - Plotinus

[Nancy Drew 39]

Get a room: Persivul, Flavor

I'll go back to including Ruby if we get the votes, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

^Reminder

Sorry, not happening, not with you.

[Dunnstral]

I have expressed my paranoia in my rooms.

Why do you feel like I don't deserve to know about your reads?

[Dunnstral]

If you remove Nancy completely and replace it with yourself Flavor leaf, you get similar results

[Nancy Drew 39]

So, why is Flavor the lead wagon?

Because he came in with an illogical push on me - saying that Plotinus being alive indicates I'm scum.

Does it really make any sense for scum!Flavor to not be on the town!Gamma Wagon in this setup? I think Plotinus, Clem, Flavor are all mechanically spewed town by this. VCA never lies.

Please tell me you're not serious about this.

Can you link/quote me on that?

You think there was no scum on the Gamma wagon? because I’m pretty sure there was a least one.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Awesome, how do we go about getting a room then? Do I bold it or something?

Why do you think a room with Plot will help you solve the game better than a room with me and flavor? If you think I'm scum and flavor's town, wouldn't you like the chance for the both of you to grill me?

I prefer to be in a room with my townreads, that’s why I usually like to hydra.

[Dunnstral]

Get a room: Persivul/Flavor

Get a Room

Persivul, Flavor Leaf (3): Persivul, Flavor Leaf, Dunnstral

(R-0)

Not Voting (4): Clemency, Nancy Drew 39, Plotinus, Something_Smart

It takes 2n-1 votes to get a n player Room.

Persivul

and

Flavor Leaf

have gotten a Room

[Nancy Drew 39]

Why is it my fault when I quite clearly pointed out to Nancy that Persivul and Flavour had wanted the room with her first and that I was happy to go second?

You could have said "No." If you were interested in the game being solved, I'd think you'd want a me/Nancy/Flavor room.

I don’t even get why you think that’s such a good idea? I get a lot more from talking privately from players Wi toxnread. I got fooled by scum!Random in Labrynth.

[Dunnstral]

I have expressed my paranoia in my rooms.

I feel like I’m being setup as the fall guy tomorrow. Not today, for tomorrow specifically.

My impression on you as a player is that you'd be all over these numbers if you were town, instead you seem to be dismissing it rather easily

Am I making a wrong assumption about you here?

[Nancy Drew 39]

And how about instead of listening to scummy plotinus in a 1 on 1 situation - where he's statistically, from your point of view, one of the most likely people to be scum, you come out here and play with the whole thread?

Do you see the scum motivation in Plotinus swooping in, stopping your other neighborhood from forming, and talking to you in private where he can manipulate you without other people seeing what he's doing and

hiding information from you

What information is he hiding from me?

!INFRACTION! - You cannot talk to or about Plotinus right now
Please be careful that referring to people you cannot talk about in third person also breaks your post restriction

[Nancy Drew 39]

I didn’t like Nancy not hammering our 3 person room. Sure, she stated she was oblivious about it, but in conjunction with that room fiasco, and already thinking Ruby was scummy, I’m lean scum on Nancy.

I didn’t understand the mechanics and I wanted to room with my then most confident townread, so sue me.

[Nancy Drew 39]

However, Nancy’ll likely obvtown if town, so I’m not too worried.

Get A Room: Persivul/Flavor

I have expressed my paranoia in my rooms.

I feel like I’m being setup as the fall guy tomorrow. Not today, for tomorrow specifically.

Can you guess you my current most confident townread is?

[Nancy Drew 39]

You guys might now be wondering if I've looked at these numbers from my point of view to influence my opinion. Nope, I haven't. I can say that I'm confident enough in my analysis of the gamestate that I'm willing to lynch past any statistical differences, and so it won't be all too insightful for me to do it personally. To put it in simple terms, even if I calculate the odds from my point of view, I trust my own reads more than any statistical analysis can provide, and I certainly trust it more than your guys reads (you guys aren't as good at this game as you think you are - As proof, none of you ever indicated that you'd stopped to think about statistical probability, you all got all wrapped up in Plotinus'

distraction

with the neighborhoods. This is me caring enough about the game to lay it all out on a silver platter for you guys. And no Something Smart, you don't get to come in here and prod dodge with a naked question about my reads. This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you. I don't think you're town, or if you are it doesn't matter and you can reflect on what you did wrong after I drag your dead body across the finish line.

You don’t think SS is playing similarly here to Excalibur?

[Flavor Leaf]

I have expressed my paranoia in my rooms.

I feel like I’m being setup as the fall guy tomorrow. Not today, for tomorrow specifically.

My impression on you as a player is that you'd be all over these numbers if you were town, instead you seem to be dismissing it rather easily

Am I making a wrong assumption about you here?

Yeah. I don’t care too much about dealing with the numbers. It’s fine to look at, but it’s just gambler’s fallacy.

I’ve been bringing up the numbers a bit, and looking at people’s charts, but I’d rather base it off of play.

Honestly, no, I don’t have anyone in this game that I solidly town read.

I’m starting to think that you’re my strongest town read, and Idk what to think about that.

[Flavor Leaf]

By people’s charts, I mean Plotinus in our room, I guess. Seemed kinda pockety, as he took me out of the charts because he thought I was town.

This went over percentages.

My early posting in the beginning of the game and why I was paranoid to get in a room with SS was because I instantly thought he might be trying to set me up. We had the highest probability of rolling scum. We’re H and I.

[Flavor Leaf]

However, Nancy’ll likely obvtown if town, so I’m not too worried.

Get A Room: Persivul/Flavor

I have expressed my paranoia in my rooms.

I feel like I’m being setup as the fall guy tomorrow. Not today, for tomorrow specifically.

Can you guess you my current most confident townread is?

Idk. Plotinus?

[Flavor Leaf]

Oh, you said you’re then highest town read.

It’s probably me, then. I don’t like that, I made a comment in my room with Plot thinking you’re trying to buddy up to me even subtly before I posted after you replaced in.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I have expressed my paranoia in my rooms.

I feel like I’m being setup as the fall guy tomorrow. Not today, for tomorrow specifically.

My impression on you as a player is that you'd be all over these numbers if you were town, instead you seem to be dismissing it rather easily

Am I making a wrong assumption about you here?

Yeah. I don’t care too much about dealing with the numbers. It’s fine to look at, but it’s just gambler’s fallacy.

I’ve been bringing up the numbers a bit, and looking at people’s charts, but I’d rather base it off of play.

Honestly, no, I don’t have anyone in this game that I solidly town read.

I’m starting to think that you’re my strongest town read, and Idk what to think about that.

Really? After Excalibur, I have trouble reading Dunn but unless scum has either a strongman or roleblocker, he could be town due to advocating for PR on us/Kris.

[Dunnstral]

You guys might now be wondering if I've looked at these numbers from my point of view to influence my opinion. Nope, I haven't. I can say that I'm confident enough in my analysis of the gamestate that I'm willing to lynch past any statistical differences, and so it won't be all too insightful for me to do it personally. To put it in simple terms, even if I calculate the odds from my point of view, I trust my own reads more than any statistical analysis can provide, and I certainly trust it more than your guys reads (you guys aren't as good at this game as you think you are - As proof, none of you ever indicated that you'd stopped to think about statistical probability, you all got all wrapped up in Plotinus'

distraction

with the neighborhoods. This is me caring enough about the game to lay it all out on a silver platter for you guys. And no Something Smart, you don't get to come in here and prod dodge with a naked question about my reads. This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you. I don't think you're town, or if you are it doesn't matter and you can reflect on what you did wrong after I drag your dead body across the finish line.

You don’t think SS is playing similarly here to Excalibur?

Not at all no, and if you think he is then that's weird since I assume the core of his gameplay is actually in rooms you don't have access to

[Dunnstral]

The setup is known