Micro 845: The Room Odds - Game Over

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #525 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:33 am

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1, BNL wrote:This is an open setup: there are 2 Mafia Goons, 6 Vanilla Townies, and 1 Town Deflector.
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Post Post #526 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:37 am

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 518, Flavor Leaf wrote:Yeah. I don’t care too much about dealing with the numbers. It’s fine to look at, but it’s just gambler’s fallacy.
...but is it?

The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). In situations where the outcome being observed is truly random and consists of independent trials of a random process, this belief is false.

Let's see what we have here:

It's not truly random. Odds are weighted.
My talk about numbers isn't mistaken belief, the only thing that could be mistaken about that is assuming that alive players are town

This isn't gambler's fallacy, this is plain statistics, and it's real. I'd argue that the mistaken belief is that the odds don't matter. After, all, the weighted odds seem to be a substantial balancing point of the setup
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Post Post #527 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:38 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 521, Flavor Leaf wrote:Oh, you said you’re then highest town read.

It’s probably me, then. I don’t like that, I made a comment in my room with Plot thinking you’re trying to buddy up to me even subtly before I posted after you replaced in.
That’s fine but that’s something I usually do with my stronger townreads. Your play here reminds me a lot of YGM. You also come across extremely genuine in your posts but I understand why you’d be paranoid of that, given your feelings on my predecessor.

I’m not sure why you’d think that before now though. I think mechanically speaking, you’re less likely to be scum due to VCA, eventhough I’m getting a lot of shit about that from some people.
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
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Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
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Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
~Taly
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Post Post #528 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:41 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 523, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 517, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 502, Dunnstral wrote:You guys might now be wondering if I've looked at these numbers from my point of view to influence my opinion. Nope, I haven't. I can say that I'm confident enough in my analysis of the gamestate that I'm willing to lynch past any statistical differences, and so it won't be all too insightful for me to do it personally. To put it in simple terms, even if I calculate the odds from my point of view, I trust my own reads more than any statistical analysis can provide, and I certainly trust it more than your guys reads (you guys aren't as good at this game as you think you are - As proof, none of you ever indicated that you'd stopped to think about statistical probability, you all got all wrapped up in Plotinus'
distraction
with the neighborhoods. This is me caring enough about the game to lay it all out on a silver platter for you guys. And no Something Smart, you don't get to come in here and prod dodge with a naked question about my reads. This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you. I don't think you're town, or if you are it doesn't matter and you can reflect on what you did wrong after I drag your dead body across the finish line.
You don’t think SS is playing similarly here to Excalibur?
Not at all no, and if you think he is then that's weird since I assume the core of his gameplay is actually in rooms you don't have access to
I don’t have any rooms with him. So, if you have information on him that is not in the main thread, It would reay help if you would share it.

Oh you’re just assuming? Who is/has been in a room with him, because it would be really helpful for me to help sort him.
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
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Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
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Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
~Taly
***
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Post Post #529 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:43 am

Post by Flavor Leaf »

You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.

I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.

If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.

@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
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Post Post #530 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:44 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 525, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1, BNL wrote:This is an open setup: there are 2 Mafia Goons, 6 Vanilla Townies, and 1 Town Deflector.
Oh okay, so you advocating for deflector on RR/Tris, makes you very likely town here. But why RR? Why did you think deflector should have been on him?
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
~Taly
***
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Post Post #531 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:49 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 529, Flavor Leaf wrote:You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.

I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.

If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.

@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.

I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.

What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?

@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.

!INFRACTION! - You cannot talk to or about Plotinus right now
Last edited by BNL on Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
~Taly
***
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Post Post #532 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:00 am

Post by Persivul »

In post 509, Nancy Drew 39 wrote: Can you link/quote me on that?
- The very first post of the day.
You think there was no scum on the Gamma wagon? because I’m pretty sure there was a least one.
I thought you were sure they were
both
on Gamma, because VCA never lies.
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Post Post #533 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:05 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 532, Persivul wrote:
In post 509, Nancy Drew 39 wrote: Can you link/quote me on that?
- The very first post of the day.
You think there was no scum on the Gamma wagon? because I’m pretty sure there was a least one.
I thought you were sure they were
both
on Gamma, because VCA never lies.
Alright thanks and I don’t need reminders of what I just posted yesterday. I’m not convinced there wasn’t but I think it’s extremely likely at LEAST one was.

Which is WHY I keep saying, I prefer to lynch ONwagon today but thanks for continuing to clarify my being consistent. :lol:
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
~Taly
***
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Post Post #534 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:10 am

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 531, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 529, Flavor Leaf wrote:You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.

I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.

If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.

@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.

I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.

What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?

@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.
Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?
Reread the relevant sections
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Post Post #535 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:18 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 534, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 531, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 529, Flavor Leaf wrote:You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.

I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.

If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.

@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.

I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.

What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?

@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.
Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?
Reread the relevant sections
I have posted in my room with Clemency and have not gotten any response as of yet.

Okay, I’m thinking that Flavor is right about you, so if/probably scum was onwagon, it’s not you.

Flavor, you, Plotinus are my top 3 towns rn.

!INFRACTION! - You cannot talk to or about Plotinus right now

Since this is your third infraction, you have lost room voting priviledges
Last edited by BNL on Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
~Taly
***
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Post Post #536 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:24 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 535, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 534, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 531, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 529, Flavor Leaf wrote:You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.

I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.

If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.

@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.

I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.

What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?

@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.
Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?
Reread the relevant sections
I have posted in my room with Clemency and have not gotten any response as of yet.

Okay, I’m thinking that Flavor is right about you, so if/probably scum was onwagon, it’s not you.

Flavor, you, Plotinus are my top 3 towns rn.
:facepalm:

I just broke my post restriction. Sorry @mod. *kicks self*
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
~Taly
***
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Post Post #537 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:31 am

Post by Clemency »

ooh, nancy's here
that explains the post count
"all due respect, the words "Clemency" and "normal" do not belong in the same paragraph" - the worst
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Post Post #538 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:33 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 537, Clemency wrote:ooh, nancy's here
that explains the post count
I’m missing you in our room.

What are your current reads?
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
~Taly
***
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Post Post #539 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:33 am

Post by BNL »

Vote Count 2.5Flavor Leaf (1): Persivul
Persivul (1): Flavor Leaf
Plotinus (1): Dunnstral
Dunnstral (1): Plotinus

Not Voting (3): Clemency, Nancy Drew 39, Something_Smart

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
The deadline is 7 February 4am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2019-02-07 04:00:00)

Rooms and Post Restictions
Persivul, Flavor Leaf ((expired on 2019-02-04 21:13:22))

Nancy Drew 39, Plotinus ((expired on 2019-02-04 01:59:20))

Plotinus, Something_Smart
Spoiler: Day 1
Plotinus, Flavor Leaf
Something Smart, tris
Gamma Emerald, Clemency
Persivul, Gamma Emerald, Dunnstral
Nancy Drew 39, Clemency
Plotinus, tris
Something_Smart, Flavor Leaf

Get a RoomNot Voting (6): Clemency, Plotinus, Something_Smart, Persivul, Flavor Leaf, Dunnstral

It takes 2n-1 votes to get a n player Room.

InfractionsNancy Drew 39: 3
Plotinus: 2

Mod notes:
Persivul and Flavor Leaf have gotten a Room
Nancy Drew 39 has lost her room vote
Last edited by BNL on Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
GTKAS - BNL

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Post Post #540 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:37 am

Post by Clemency »

lemme get a grasp of this game again, it's hard to focus on
"all due respect, the words "Clemency" and "normal" do not belong in the same paragraph" - the worst
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Post Post #541 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:39 am

Post by Clemency »

i like mr. tasty leaf
i was leaning on scum ruby but now that you're here idk how to feel
plot's town i think
"all due respect, the words "Clemency" and "normal" do not belong in the same paragraph" - the worst
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Post Post #542 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:47 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 541, Clemency wrote:i like mr. tasty leaf
i was leaning on scum ruby but now that you're here idk how to feel
plot's town i think
If I had been in that slot from the beginning, I would have fought obvtown Gamma mislynch.

You’re mindmelding with me on 2/3 reads.

What is your take on both SS and Persival having very similar reactions to my VCA theory?
***
We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
~the worst
*******
Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
~Taly
***
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Post Post #543 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:52 am

Post by Clemency »

oh i skipped forward
i was gonna read what i missed soon
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Post Post #544 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:00 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 529, Flavor Leaf wrote:I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.
Maybe, but it's the less harmful of the two fallacies. It's much more common, and dangerous, to treat a small chance as a serious possibility. 1% = 0% for me, and I will happily accept the ~5% chance of autoloss that entails in order to help me enormously in the other 95% of cases.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #545 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:01 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 500, Flavor Leaf wrote:However, Nancy’ll likely obvtown if town, so I’m not too worried.

Get A Room: Persivul/Flavor
You don't think she already has?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #546 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:06 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 502, Dunnstral wrote:This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you.
What would "working with you" entail? I don't recall seeing any signs that you wanted to do that...

Do you want a room together?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #547 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:09 am

Post by Something_Smart »

And saying that I "aided Plotinus in misleading Nancy" and then "gave a generic excuse" about it is some serious begging the question... you're assuming an ulterior motive for voting for that room, because it's completely reasonable that I'm town and have a policy of simply giving people what they want, which is a generic policy because it's a very simple one.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #548 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:15 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Get a room: Dunnstral, Something_Smart

Nobody hammer this unless Dunn says he's okay with it.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Joined: November 17, 2015
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Post Post #549 (ISO) » Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:18 am

Post by Something_Smart »

By the way Dunn:
In post 381, Something_Smart wrote:
Get a room: Plotinus, Something_Smart

Don't hammer this without Plotinus's approval, same as I'm not hammering the above room without Ruby's approval.
This was before the hammer of Plotinus/Nancy that I supposedly made an excuse for.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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