Micro 845: The Room Odds - Game Over
- Dunnstral
-
Dunnstral he/himGoodfellas
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
-
Dunnstral he/himGoodfellas
- Dunnstral
he/him- Goodfellas
- Goodfellas
- Posts: 39786
- Joined: April 2, 2016
- Pronoun: he/him
...but is it?In post 518, Flavor Leaf wrote:Yeah. I don’t care too much about dealing with the numbers. It’s fine to look at, but it’s just gambler’s fallacy.
The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). In situations where the outcome being observed is truly random and consists of independent trials of a random process, this belief is false.
Let's see what we have here:
It's not truly random. Odds are weighted.
My talk about numbers isn't mistaken belief, the only thing that could be mistaken about that is assuming that alive players are town
This isn't gambler's fallacy, this is plain statistics, and it's real. I'd argue that the mistaken belief is that the odds don't matter. After, all, the weighted odds seem to be a substantial balancing point of the setup- Nancy Drew 39
-
Nancy Drew 39 She/HerNot that Inno Scent
- Nancy Drew 39
She/Her- Not that Inno Scent
- Not that Inno Scent
- Posts: 14979
- Joined: January 14, 2018
- Pronoun: She/Her
- Location: HYDRAs 4EVA!!!
- Contact:
That’s fine but that’s something I usually do with my stronger townreads. Your play here reminds me a lot of YGM. You also come across extremely genuine in your posts but I understand why you’d be paranoid of that, given your feelings on my predecessor.In post 521, Flavor Leaf wrote:Oh, you said you’re then highest town read.
It’s probably me, then. I don’t like that, I made a comment in my room with Plot thinking you’re trying to buddy up to me even subtly before I posted after you replaced in.
I’m not sure why you’d think that before now though. I think mechanically speaking, you’re less likely to be scum due to VCA, eventhough I’m getting a lot of shit about that from some people.**********We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)~the worst*******Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl~CheekyTeekyNancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.~Taly- Nancy Drew 39
-
Nancy Drew 39 She/HerNot that Inno Scent
- Nancy Drew 39
She/Her- Not that Inno Scent
- Not that Inno Scent
- Posts: 14979
- Joined: January 14, 2018
- Pronoun: She/Her
- Location: HYDRAs 4EVA!!!
- Contact:
I don’t have any rooms with him. So, if you have information on him that is not in the main thread, It would reay help if you would share it.In post 523, Dunnstral wrote:
Not at all no, and if you think he is then that's weird since I assume the core of his gameplay is actually in rooms you don't have access toIn post 517, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
You don’t think SS is playing similarly here to Excalibur?In post 502, Dunnstral wrote:You guys might now be wondering if I've looked at these numbers from my point of view to influence my opinion. Nope, I haven't. I can say that I'm confident enough in my analysis of the gamestate that I'm willing to lynch past any statistical differences, and so it won't be all too insightful for me to do it personally. To put it in simple terms, even if I calculate the odds from my point of view, I trust my own reads more than any statistical analysis can provide, and I certainly trust it more than your guys reads (you guys aren't as good at this game as you think you are - As proof, none of you ever indicated that you'd stopped to think about statistical probability, you all got all wrapped up in Plotinus'distractionwith the neighborhoods. This is me caring enough about the game to lay it all out on a silver platter for you guys. And no Something Smart, you don't get to come in here and prod dodge with a naked question about my reads. This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you. I don't think you're town, or if you are it doesn't matter and you can reflect on what you did wrong after I drag your dead body across the finish line.
Oh you’re just assuming? Who is/has been in a room with him, because it would be really helpful for me to help sort him.**********We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)~the worst*******Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl~CheekyTeekyNancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.~Taly- Flavor Leaf
-
Flavor Leaf Survivor
- Flavor Leaf
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 42893
- Joined: July 17, 2017
- Location: San Francisco
You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.
I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.
If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.
@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.CHECK OUT MY HOW TO PLAY AS SCUM GUIDE Maybe it'll help you catch me
”Yeah, the moment I realized Flavor was scum I stopped trying because I’m sure as hell not beating him.” - Clemency
”Not bragging about myself as much as I'm actually praising the Scum player of the year...and probably the decade.” - Almost50
"Just accept that FL is too good as scum, period." - Clidd- Nancy Drew 39
-
Nancy Drew 39 She/HerNot that Inno Scent
- Nancy Drew 39
She/Her- Not that Inno Scent
- Not that Inno Scent
- Posts: 14979
- Joined: January 14, 2018
- Pronoun: She/Her
- Location: HYDRAs 4EVA!!!
- Contact:
Oh okay, so you advocating for deflector on RR/Tris, makes you very likely town here. But why RR? Why did you think deflector should have been on him?
**********We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)~the worst*******Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl~CheekyTeekyNancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.~Taly- Nancy Drew 39
-
Nancy Drew 39 She/HerNot that Inno Scent
- Nancy Drew 39
She/Her- Not that Inno Scent
- Not that Inno Scent
- Posts: 14979
- Joined: January 14, 2018
- Pronoun: She/Her
- Location: HYDRAs 4EVA!!!
- Contact:
Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.In post 529, Flavor Leaf wrote:You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.
I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.
If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.
@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.
What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?
@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.
!INFRACTION! - You cannot talk to or about Plotinus right nowLast edited by BNL on Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:00 am, edited 1 time in total.**********We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)~the worst*******Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl~CheekyTeekyNancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.~Taly- Persivul
-
Persivul Survivor
- Persivul
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10042
- Joined: May 4, 2015
368 - The very first post of the day.In post 509, Nancy Drew 39 wrote: Can you link/quote me on that?
I thought you were sure they wereYou think there was no scum on the Gamma wagon? because I’m pretty sure there was a least one.bothon Gamma, because VCA never lies. 419 420- Nancy Drew 39
-
Nancy Drew 39 She/HerNot that Inno Scent
- Nancy Drew 39
She/Her- Not that Inno Scent
- Not that Inno Scent
- Posts: 14979
- Joined: January 14, 2018
- Pronoun: She/Her
- Location: HYDRAs 4EVA!!!
- Contact:
Alright thanks and I don’t need reminders of what I just posted yesterday. I’m not convinced there wasn’t but I think it’s extremely likely at LEAST one was.In post 532, Persivul wrote:
368 - The very first post of the day.In post 509, Nancy Drew 39 wrote: Can you link/quote me on that?
I thought you were sure they wereYou think there was no scum on the Gamma wagon? because I’m pretty sure there was a least one.bothon Gamma, because VCA never lies. 419 420
Which is WHY I keep saying, I prefer to lynch ONwagon today but thanks for continuing to clarify my being consistent.**********We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)~the worst*******Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl~CheekyTeekyNancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.~Taly- Dunnstral
-
Dunnstral he/himGoodfellas
- Dunnstral
he/him- Goodfellas
- Goodfellas
- Posts: 39786
- Joined: April 2, 2016
- Pronoun: he/him
Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?In post 531, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.In post 529, Flavor Leaf wrote:You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.
I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.
If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.
@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.
What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?
@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.
Reread the relevant sections- Nancy Drew 39
-
Nancy Drew 39 She/HerNot that Inno Scent
- Nancy Drew 39
She/Her- Not that Inno Scent
- Not that Inno Scent
- Posts: 14979
- Joined: January 14, 2018
- Pronoun: She/Her
- Location: HYDRAs 4EVA!!!
- Contact:
I have posted in my room with Clemency and have not gotten any response as of yet.In post 534, Dunnstral wrote:
Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?In post 531, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.In post 529, Flavor Leaf wrote:You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.
I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.
If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.
@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.
What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?
@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.
Reread the relevant sections
Okay, I’m thinking that Flavor is right about you, so if/probably scum was onwagon, it’s not you.
Flavor, you, Plotinus are my top 3 towns rn.
!INFRACTION! - You cannot talk to or about Plotinus right now
Since this is your third infraction, you have lost room voting priviledgesLast edited by BNL on Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:02 am, edited 1 time in total.**********We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)~the worst*******Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl~CheekyTeekyNancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.~Taly- Nancy Drew 39
-
Nancy Drew 39 She/HerNot that Inno Scent
- Nancy Drew 39
She/Her- Not that Inno Scent
- Not that Inno Scent
- Posts: 14979
- Joined: January 14, 2018
- Pronoun: She/Her
- Location: HYDRAs 4EVA!!!
- Contact:
In post 535, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
I have posted in my room with Clemency and have not gotten any response as of yet.In post 534, Dunnstral wrote:
Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?In post 531, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.In post 529, Flavor Leaf wrote:You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.
I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.
If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.
@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.
What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?
@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.
Reread the relevant sections
Okay, I’m thinking that Flavor is right about you, so if/probably scum was onwagon, it’s not you.
Flavor, you, Plotinus are my top 3 towns rn.
I just broke my post restriction. Sorry @mod. *kicks self***********We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)~the worst*******Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl~CheekyTeekyNancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.~Taly- Clemency
-
Clemency anyMafia Scum
- Clemency
any- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3546
- Joined: October 15, 2016
- Pronoun: any
- Location: just short of hell
- Nancy Drew 39
-
Nancy Drew 39 She/HerNot that Inno Scent
- Nancy Drew 39
She/Her- Not that Inno Scent
- Not that Inno Scent
- Posts: 14979
- Joined: January 14, 2018
- Pronoun: She/Her
- Location: HYDRAs 4EVA!!!
- Contact:
I’m missing you in our room.
What are your current reads?**********We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)~the worst*******Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl~CheekyTeekyNancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.~Taly- BNL
-
BNL Micro Madness
- BNL
- Micro Madness
- Micro Madness
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: September 15, 2015
- Location: EDT+12
Mod notes:
Persivul and Flavor Leaf have gotten a Room
Nancy Drew 39 has lost her room voteLast edited by BNL on Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:03 am, edited 2 times in total.- Clemency
-
Clemency anyMafia Scum
- Clemency
any- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3546
- Joined: October 15, 2016
- Pronoun: any
- Location: just short of hell
- Clemency
-
Clemency anyMafia Scum
- Clemency
any- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3546
- Joined: October 15, 2016
- Pronoun: any
- Location: just short of hell
- Nancy Drew 39
-
Nancy Drew 39 She/HerNot that Inno Scent
- Nancy Drew 39
She/Her- Not that Inno Scent
- Not that Inno Scent
- Posts: 14979
- Joined: January 14, 2018
- Pronoun: She/Her
- Location: HYDRAs 4EVA!!!
- Contact:
If I had been in that slot from the beginning, I would have fought obvtown Gamma mislynch.In post 541, Clemency wrote:i like mr. tasty leaf
i was leaning on scum ruby but now that you're here idk how to feel
plot's town i think
You’re mindmelding with me on 2/3 reads.
What is your take on both SS and Persival having very similar reactions to my VCA theory?**********We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)~the worst*******Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl~CheekyTeekyNancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.~Taly- Clemency
-
Clemency anyMafia Scum
- Clemency
any- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3546
- Joined: October 15, 2016
- Pronoun: any
- Location: just short of hell
- Something_Smart
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_Balanced
- Something_Smart
He/him- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23115
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
Maybe, but it's the less harmful of the two fallacies. It's much more common, and dangerous, to treat a small chance as a serious possibility. 1% = 0% for me, and I will happily accept the ~5% chance of autoloss that entails in order to help me enormously in the other 95% of cases.In post 529, Flavor Leaf wrote:I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!- Something_Smart
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_Balanced
- Something_Smart
He/him- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23115
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
You don't think she already has?In post 500, Flavor Leaf wrote:However, Nancy’ll likely obvtown if town, so I’m not too worried.
Get A Room: Persivul/FlavorIt's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!- Something_Smart
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_Balanced
- Something_Smart
He/him- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23115
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
What would "working with you" entail? I don't recall seeing any signs that you wanted to do that...In post 502, Dunnstral wrote:This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you.
Do you want a room together?It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!- Something_Smart
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_Balanced
- Something_Smart
He/him- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23115
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
And saying that I "aided Plotinus in misleading Nancy" and then "gave a generic excuse" about it is some serious begging the question... you're assuming an ulterior motive for voting for that room, because it's completely reasonable that I'm town and have a policy of simply giving people what they want, which is a generic policy because it's a very simple one.It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!- Something_Smart
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_Balanced
- Something_Smart
He/him- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23115
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
Get a room: Dunnstral, Something_Smart
Nobody hammer this unless Dunn says he's okay with it.It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!- Something_Smart
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_Balanced
- Something_Smart
He/him- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23115
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
By the way Dunn:
This was before the hammer of Plotinus/Nancy that I supposedly made an excuse for.In post 381, Something_Smart wrote:Get a room: Plotinus, Something_Smart
Don't hammer this without Plotinus's approval, same as I'm not hammering the above room without Ruby's approval.It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK! - Something_Smart
Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.
- Something_Smart
- Something_Smart
- Something_Smart
- Something_Smart
- Something_Smart
- Clemency
- Nancy Drew 39
- Clemency
- Clemency
- BNL
- Nancy Drew 39
- Clemency
- Nancy Drew 39
- Nancy Drew 39
- Dunnstral
- Nancy Drew 39
- Persivul
- Nancy Drew 39
- Nancy Drew 39
- Flavor Leaf
- Nancy Drew 39
- Nancy Drew 39
- Dunnstral