Anime U-Pick: King Size [SEASON FINALE...?]

[Asking for a friend]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=76341
Here have another scumgame but dw there's more then this coming

[Asking for a friend]

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=78012
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=77970
Some mroe towngames, honestly if you just look you'll find a lot of towngames all of which have him posting a lot.
Compare that to here, where Creature is not really in the game at all.

[Chito and Yuuri]

Chito:

Jet is it possible that you and spike got different role pms?

[Spike and Jet]

haha, nah
the meta is being applied poorly
read spike based on the posts he does make, not the ones he isnt
like a50 said, he's shifting up his meta lately

[mastina]

Idk, I can't really trust Mastina. Especially after the game she replaced in.

The difference is I was scum there telling the truth whereas here I am town telling the "truth".

[mastina]

I can't really imagine a world where Mastina lists me as a near top town read on so few posts.

Oh don't be deceived.

You're not so much a townread so much as you are a "not groupscum" read; you're near the top of my readslist in spite of being what amounts to a weak townread at best. (And yes the thought crossed my mind lowkey that you'd be 3p but you know my stance there is to treat 3p as if town regardless so. I don't think you're groupscum and that's good enough for me.)

[mastina]

Also @mastina we are a hydra. I exist and I’m a developed hooman and not the flat girlfriend character. Don’t forget this head or you’ll make me cry.

Yes well, Cerb's the one I can read, so. He's the one I get to go off of, especially since your presence both in thread and in site is scarce (by which I mean lack of meta + lack of strong presence = Cerb's got more stuff).

Also SSBF proly town

Nooooo not really. He's not a scumread but he's the closest thing to being one without being one.

[mastina]

do you think that's scum indicative?

I do have your slot as a scumread albeit one of the "barely" ones.

[Drixx]

So ... do I think Torque and that one hydra totally missed that my TMI post was more than that? Did

anyone

see the other connection?

Maybe look where my vote is and the interaction between the slots in question.

O/T: Patriots baby! Number six!

[Spike and Jet]

im an idiot, i need things spelled out

[Toogeloo]

I dont think I've ever needed to be prodded before lol. Busy weekend with the Super Bowl and what not.

I'm a bit disappointed at the lack of initiative to reveal other neighborhoods, but I'm at least town reading Drixx for having a similar mind set as I for the reasons of why it's a good idea.


Nothing else to really report on since nothing in the game stands out, including any real scum case that looks sticky enough to work. I'll go here for now since my gut is telling me to...
VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[Elena Fisher]

This is a prod dodge until tomorrow. Will maybe post tonight but not likely

[Dunnstral]

Alisae the answer is that I've pushed Creature for this meta and was wrong and learned that his meta actually has changed

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler:

25.8 posts per day - 722 posts/28 days - NY 213 - viewtopic.php?f=2&t=76567

12.9 posts per day - 220 posts/17 days - Open 739: Epic Duel - viewtopic.php?f=51&t=77435

12 posts per day - 180 posts/15 days - Open 736: Diffusion of Power - viewtopic.php?f=51&t=77349

8.46 posts per day - 203 posts/24 days - Mini Normal 2024 - viewtopic.php?f=2&t=76996

8.36 posts per day - 326 posts/39 days - Mini 2032: Children of Hurin Mafia - viewtopic.php?f=23&t=77310

7.72 posts per day - 247 posts/32 days - micro 816-II: pokemon go - viewtopic.php?f=83&t=76964

6.1 posts per day - 122 posts/20 days - Mini Normal 2033: Dolphins - viewtopic.php?f=2&t=77289

5.5 posts per day - 155 posts/28 days - Mini 2032: TAZ Mafia: Murder on the Rockport Limited - viewtopic.php?f=23&t=77242

4.88 posts per day - 161 posts/33days - Open 737: Stack the Deck - viewtopic.php?f=51&t=77146

4 posts per day - 36 posts/9 days - THIS GAME (with no night phases and posts from another game included)
3.3 posts per day - 53 posts/16 days - THIS GAME, extrapolated to after night 1 with a full day phase, with posts from another game removed

3.29 posts per day - 214 posts/65 days - Mini Normal 2030 - viewtopic.php?f=2&t=77190

2.25 posts per day - 99 posts/44 days viewtopic.php?f=52&t=70810

2.19 posts per day - 68 posts/31 days - Mini Normal 1925 - viewtopic.php?f=53&t=72508

But I haven't factored out night phases. Some games, like the 4.88 posts per day town game, had a night phase that lasted ~4 days that skewered the stats. Additionally, this game hasn't had any night phases, which further skewers the stats in relation to this game so his post count appears higher than what it would be. Furthermore, Creature made posts that were intended for another game topic in this thread, further inflating his own postcount in a matter I'd deem unfair to consider in this game.

But you know what? we can extrapolate the results - we subtract 2 posts from his postcount (34/9), then multiply his post count and days by 1.55, bringing us to 53 posts/14 days, almost perfectly. Then, we add 2 more days to simulate the night phase - 53 posts/16 days, and now we have a fair extrapolation of his contributions - I've added the results above.

Even then, his posts per day is still likely too high than it would be if he weren't replaced and kept playing the game - he really worked on inflating his post count early on in this game.

As a bonus, I'll show off how very real Creature activity meta is, and how it's handled in other games:



Now obviously this was
A) from almost 2 years ago
B) made for micro games, while this is a large game

So I'm not going to try to interperet stats and compare to these charts, but this proves that creature meta was - AND STILL IS - a very big deal in reading him.

But wait, it gets better, let's look at Creature's self-made wiki page to see what he thinks about this:

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Creature


Now let's stop ignoring the MATHMATICALLY LIKELY scumslot - the slot that is very high probability statistical scum - Don't act like you guys can read RUby Red when you don't even know whose alt it is, just go for blatant scummeta Creature who happens to be the same slot

VOTE: Ruby Red

[Clemency]

welcome back to creatureology 101

[Asking for a friend]

Alisae the answer is that I've pushed Creature for this meta and was wrong and learned that his meta actually has changed

I'm going to try to write up a long version with actual data, but this is the short version.
I think your post is good, but in I looked at the game the post was sourced from and thats probably the most key thing to take into consideration: Posts in an RL day.
From my understanding of that game, Creature was forced replaced due to prods or something. So I don't think this is intentional. However he did say he was starting to post more as a wolf, which is all good an all but its probably still an easy read, you just need to look at Creature's posts in an RL day within the past 3 months (idunno how much tbh) and compare the two. Additionally, you can compare how Creature was posting in those games with other games at the time. The reason why I think this is I kinda decided to look at the period where he decided to post in said game you linked. What I found was in a day, Creature posted in a amount that looked like it was indicative of town!Creature. Now, if I could see what was going on with Creature during this time period, I could probably gain a LOT more information, but at with a very Shallow amount of research, Creature was replaced in another game for being unresponsive to prods (judging by a 2nd replacement request)

So I am going to adjust what I said to justify this in a longer version
A. Creature posts more in 1 rl day as town then he does as scum, and because he has sparcingly posted since gamestart, (IE have 2-3 posts) he is scum. I'm not going to group up his posts like how the post Dunn showed did alltogether because that skrews data and we're not looking for an average per say. What we're looking for is how many posts does he make as both alignments in day 1 using recent meta.
B. Creature is posting in other games but not in this game therefore he is scum. What I am going to do to analyze this is look at previous games and note when the games were. Basically, this gets proven true or false based on A.

[Asking for a friend]

Dunn the game you posted that post in he posted like 20something times I think 27 kinda miscounted but I'm not off by that many posts. Unfortuantely thats not really enough. But I posted like 2 other recent towngames, and it goes up and down, stays in the single digits sometimes, but fairly common he posted 10-20 times a day and then he's definitely posted 20+ in those games. I know in a single day he posted like 50 times, and from what I've seen so far. I'm just going by the game you posted, and the two town games I posted. Then I looked at the scumgame at first and I saw that it was different, it took him quite a bit of time to peak 20 posts but with his posts within those days, it was still kinda not much. I'll probably look more into it later, but

I'll admit its definitely changed but I don't think that the change is big enough to disprove that
A. Posting in other games but this one is scummy, aka this is the old classic elli tell. Now apparently the duck is saying that the classic Elli tell has been overused as of recent, but also agreed with me that now is the classic time to use it (meaning its probably overated because it was used incorrectly)
B. Sheer Volume is still extremely low.
C. You're saying that Creature can't be read off of activity as much anymore, but the facts still are that the amount of Creature's posts are in the single digits, and its been atleast 2 days since my pushed started and that started 2 days after tats opened the gamethread.

[Asking for a friend]

I'll probably do more digging through Data but honestly, what I've seen is enough so far.
Sure Creature might have changed, but is he still scum?
Yes.

[Near x Mello]

Sure Creature might have changed, but is he still scum?
I don't know because he hasn't posted enough yet.

Fixed.

Apply your efforts elsewhere. We all know you're pushing creature because youre otherwise clueless.

~Near

[Asking for a friend]

no

[Asking for a friend]

I am pushing creature because I scumread him
by the time you finish lynching me his posts will be in the single digits

[Joan of Arc]

Daily reminder that creature only has 2 posts in thread

He has 3. Clear attempt to mislead us.

VOTE: Asking for a friend

Firstly that was already pointed out. Second why does one more post matter?

It matters because they are selling false information, which scum are prone to do, and that they ignored the first time when it was pointed out.

[Asking for a friend]

yeah joining this game was a mistake and Yume is exactly the reason why so

[Asking for a friend]

yeah joining this game was a mistake and Yume is exactly the reason why so

cut off for some reason
but anyhow, so I am leaving before it gets worse and I don't think the duck wants to play this solo so...
Goodbye

[Asking for a friend]

Chito: its never a bad time to pressure creature

oh yeah btw before I leave this is scum too if you care.
This followed by "Lets help push something else" is scummy not to mention this is the head that initially said in hood that Creature was probably scum, and not really doing anything about it is scummy but hey, thats just my 2cents as I'm replacing out.