Mini Normal 2053 [Completed]

[Weiss Schnee]

Joges can save mislynch from losing here with his vig shot, and if necessary we can massclaim tomorrow

if Alonzo flipped town PR then (to me) that confirms scum have a JK/RB who would then block joges for game loss

[Weiss Schnee]

still thinking alonzo just flips scum here tho

even if, tbh, I have doubts

[Creature]

tbtbs = too bold to be scum?

I had "bad" over "bold" in mind, but that also serves.

[Weiss Schnee]

Alonzo in a weird position under pressure

Like this is a game that makes me think Alonzo is way off his normal town play here. There he is in a slot that had a pretty insane claim {informed that the person he hammered the previous day was town}, which was actually true--but Alonzo keeps pushing his reads and sorting anyway

Here he seems like he's half gone into anti-spew mode, half-given up, and has certainly stopped solving

So I think the simpler explanation here is correct -- Alonzo thought claiming town RB would get him towncred, he thought the major TPRs had already been outed since {masons+vig} is already a significant amount of town power, and he simply fucked up his scum fakeclaim.

Like if he flips scum here I don't say "man alonzo is bad at scum" I would say he made a reasonable mistake

that being said, it still raises the question why he thought he needed towncred when he was not, at that particular moment, under heaps of pressure

so I have questions here but I still maintain the main thing I've felt all game--this doesn't feel like town Alonzo

[ssbm_Kyouko]

How can you have doubts about his claim? He claims he blocked you didn't he, and you said you got results both nights.

[Weiss Schnee]

I have doubts because we don't know what the scum power structure is and there's not a 0% chance there is a scum RB/JK that hit him n2

that requires a lot of setup spec tho and I think the simpler explanation of {Alonzo scum} still makes more sense

[ssbm_Kyouko]

gotcha, i'm following now. I agree scum!Alonzo makes more sense

[Creature]

{informed that the person he hammered the previous day was town}

So VT?

[Alonzo]

This is cut and dry.

I revealed to give maximum discussion time on the solve.

I blocked Weiss cos I didn't want to be embarrassed by a backstab after giving the town lean, and in the presence of a night one kill didn't think creature was a viable block.

[Jibril]

no i think you can be scum loooking for a 1 v 1 which is actually a 2 v 1.

I guess I can see why you're paranoid but you're saying to me:

town power is 2 masons, every-night vig, every-night rolecop, every-night roleblocker
and scum have a {jailkeep/roleblocker} that hit alonzo and I guess {some investigative} to have targeted alonzo n1 to explain why he was blocked?

idk if that works but your theory requires a loooot of power

Sounds right for powers. I would believe them all, and swap joges for ssb in that case.

[Jibril]

Stan1ey, ssb, creature eager to jump on Alonzo after he gets a vote. Those 3 make sense now. But I will go with or's decision.

[stan1ey]

Stan1ey, ssb, creature eager to jump on Alonzo after he gets a vote. Those 3 make sense now. But I will go with or's decision.

Not after he makes a vote, after he makes a claim that pretty much confirms he's scum

Let's lynch alonzo and let joges shoot jibril cmon

[stan1ey]

This games pretty much over, just gotta decibe between creature and ssbm tomorrow, i could be wrong but i really doubt it

[Jibril]

Stop drooling over your prey Werebeast

[Weiss Schnee]

This games pretty much over,

Stan is making me really nervous here lol

[stan1ey]

Why

[Weiss Schnee]

Hmmm.

Alonzo isn't scum roleblocker.

If he was, I would have been blocked.

So, let's say Alonzo is scum. If he is scum, he is a goon, and he wanted to eat the lynch to protect the scum PR which would allow his team to block and kill Joges tonight.

So.

I know this is going to sound batshit insane probably

but what if we didn't lynch Alonzo?

we should still basically have a 50% chance of hitting scum -- there are 2 scum in stan, jibril, Creature, and Kyouko

can we strongly rule out any of those two?

jibril's willingness to seriously engage with the game seems wildly erratic which makes her very difficult to read

I very much would like to rule out Creature. I am thinking about his reluctance to claim, and I am not really sure I like it. He feels town on tone *other than that* but his fishiness on the claim really bothers me.

Mumble I wanted to say felt like wasn't really playing into his scum game, but I still probably need to read some of his other games tomorrow. Still would like Creature to expand on why he thought this wasn't Mumble's towngame.

But I think... I have totally forgotten why I wasn't scumreading stan.

I guess partly it's that 1486 and 1487 are not how I'm feeling about this game right now so that leaves me really spooked.

So, what if we lynched stan today? If he is scum, he has a chance of being the scum roleblocker, whereas Alonzo, if scum, is almost certainly goon.

Thoughts?

Stan -- if you are town, can you expand on why you are town?

[Weiss Schnee]

I just want to hear if anyone has a solve that does not include stan right now basically

[Weiss Schnee]

Mumble I wanted to say felt like wasn't really playing into his scum game, but I still probably need to read some of his other games tomorrow. Still would like Creature to expand on why he thought this wasn't Mumble's towngame.

I know you said something about post count but if you could point to the games you're thinking of that would really help

[Weiss Schnee]

Stan solve is: Alonzo, Jibril, {Kyouko or Creature} -- Stan, if you had decide between kyouko and Creature, which would you choose and why?

[Weiss Schnee]

I can believe its Weiss, Creature and Stan til proven otherwise.

Alonzo,I know you have me as a direct CC but let's pretend for a moment you were roleblocked. Scumteam is Creature (who you believe is mechanically caught scum due to d1), Stan, and which out of jibril and Kyouko?

[Weiss Schnee]

Maybe I'm really overthinking this because Alonzo's claim really is still quite bad

I should probably go to sleep

I'd still like to know if stan is a universal scumread and whether there is a consensus sort between {jibril, kyouko} or whether anyone believes both of them are likely scum

[stan1ey]

If you lynch me scum block and kill joges then its 3v3 tomorrow and we lose

[stan1ey]

On the other hand, we lynch alonzo scum has to chose between blocking joges to stop jibril getting killed or blocking you weiss to stop you finding out who is the last scum between ssbm and creature

[stan1ey]

Either way we have a pretty good path to a win