Open 75 - Vengeful Mafia (Mod screwup ruins game) before 604

[armlx]

Woah, hold up there. Random votes don't help in this set up.

Creepo plan right now. As per here http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7852
it increases the average win % of the average player in the game.

Pairs are MacAvenger and CES, and xtoxm and Mellowed Man. We discuss who to lynch, the lynched person kills Vengeful kills the other person in their pair.

As per the rules of playing MoS's role for the plan, I have not not read my role PM.

[armlx]

The plan increases the odds of a random player winning by a bit over 5%.

The plan also accounts for me not reading my role PM, as the odds of me winning increase regardless of alignment. The not reading part is simply to ensure the pairings are as impartial as possible.

[armlx]

Actually, since this is a forum where we can use dice tags, thats optimal. All numbers will count down from the top of the list of players.

1st roll is out of 5 and that is MoS.

Original Roll String: 1d5

1 5-Sided Dice: (5) = 5

2nd roll is out of 4, 3rd is out of 3, those are one pair.

Original Roll String: 1d4

1 4-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

Original Roll String: 1d3

1 3-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

Last 2 are the other pair.

[armlx]

So, random dice rolls say the exact same thing that I said.

[armlx]

So, random dice rolls say the exact same thing that I said.

Is there any way to rig these dices?

Not that I know of, would be sick though. Unless you count karmic justice as rigging.

[armlx]

Mac, I simply went down every possible play branch and found the total odds of winning. Thats the mathematical basis.

Vote xtoxm

for opposing a plan that raises town odds of winning and trying to pin random results on the person they turn out favorable for.

Also, Mac, the issue becomes that its rotten odds regardless. Vengeful is 35% town win in the abstract. We also still discuss lynches, it just works out slightly differently.

[armlx]

Please vig Macavenger. +EV for town and what not.

[armlx]

xtoxm, you fail to get the point that my plan is +EV for the town.

I bet Macavenger or CES is the other scum.

[armlx]

Yeah. I realize. My logic wasn't based on the godfather scenario anyways.

[armlx]

xtoxm, you fail to get the point that my plan is +EV for the town.

No it's not.

How is it not? There's still analysis involved in the lynches, it just increases the odds of winning outside that analysis.

[armlx]

I just laid out a tree of every possible game outcome and thats what it added up to. D2 you can lynch whoever.

[armlx]

You don't get it. Pairings are random, lynches aren't. It requires the same amount of analysis as it would otherwise.

[armlx]

I don't see your point here. I have told you mathematically the strategy works out to put the town lynches at more likely to hit scum, and we still analyze, and you keep saying "No. you just get lucky"

[armlx]

The lynches aren't random. The lynches are based on analysis.

[armlx]

No, if we lynched you or Mellowed the game was over as scum were paired. But Mellowed was pretty obv town and you were on par with Mac on townishness before the xtoxm wagon.

[armlx]

Oh, you were indeed. My mistake.

[armlx]

I say just move along and say the game happened.