Micro 845: The Room Odds - Game Over

[Nancy Drew 39]

Something_Smart also brought up that he was gonna soft deflector claim in Plotinus’ room, and he asked me not to tell Plotinus.

Full disclosure, I claimed Deflector in my room with SS immediately as we got our room, on the first page of this game. Obvious reaction test, he knew that. I told Plotinus that I did this without confirming if I was actually the deflector or not. I guess in hindsight it was pretty obvious I wasn’t.

From right when I first replaced in, Persivul was my strongest scumread.

Plotinus told me that SS had made a case to hilm why I was town in their room.

But any rate, we only need to get one right not to lose right and my money’s on Persivul.

[Flavor Leaf]

Wait, I was wrong. SS never said Plotinus/Nancy.

Plotinus said Nancy/Dunn.

[Flavor Leaf]

It was in response to me bringing up a Nancy/Something_Smart pairing, which is now completely proven to be incorrect.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Something_Smart also brought up that he was gonna soft deflector claim in Plotinus’ room, and he asked me not to tell Plotinus.

Full disclosure, I claimed Deflector in my room with SS immediately as we got our room, on the first page of this game. Obvious reaction test, he knew that. I told Plotinus that I did this without confirming if I was actually the deflector or not. I guess in hindsight it was pretty obvious I wasn’t.

I wish I had deflected him last night. I probably would have Tris but I wasn’t in this slot then.

Well, the easiest way to flesh out scum, is to see how people respond to their wagon. So, let’s see what hppens with a Persuvul wagon.

I haven’t liked a single one of his posts in this game.

[Nancy Drew 39]

It was in response to me bringing up a Nancy/Something_Smart pairing, which is now completely proven to be incorrect.

Yeah, I don’t know how anyone thought that. Our initial interaction, read blatantly unpartnery, so I don’t understand it.

[Flavor Leaf]

I have a tendency to see bickering coming from S/S, and I was super paranoid of SS being scum at the time. And I thought Persivul was deflector.

[Plotinus]

Nancy who did your slot deflect off of on which nights? We can't know for sure, but it's possible that you deflected a kill, so anyone you deflected off of is slightly more likely to be town.

[Plotinus]

Flavor, it's pretty obvious from my comment to you in our room earlier today that I believed you were the deflector all along.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Nancy who did your slot deflect off of on which nights? We can't know for sure, but it's possible that you deflected a kill, so anyone you deflected off of is slightly more likely to be town.

How? Scum killed Tris and SS?

RR deflected you. I changed my mind 3 times. Ist, I chose Dunn, then Flavor and finally settled on you. RR deflected onto Clem. I deflected onto Persivul.

[Plotinus]

Nancy who did your slot deflect off of on which nights? We can't know for sure, but it's possible that you deflected a kill, so anyone you deflected off of is slightly more likely to be town.

How? Scum killed Tris and SS?

RR deflected you. I changed my mind 3 times. Ist, I chose Dunn, then Flavor and finally settled on you. RR deflected onto Clem. I deflected onto Persivul.

If either of you had deflected onto tris/something_smart, then we wouldn't know whether scum had targeted those people or the person you deflected off of.

But since you didn't, we don't know anything new about the alignments of your targets. Oh well.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Can we still get rooms in LYLO?

[Flavor Leaf]

Flavor, it's pretty obvious from my comment to you in our room earlier today that I believed you were the deflector all along.

Sure, I read it that way, but I don’t think that’s anything that couldn’t be faked as scum. I’m not entirely certain that it’s you over Dunn, but like I said before, I see Dunn/Persovul as T/S

[Flavor Leaf]

Can we still get rooms in LYLO?

Yeah

[Plotinus]

Flavor, it's pretty obvious from my comment to you in our room earlier today that I believed you were the deflector all along.

Sure, I read it that way, but I don’t think that’s anything that couldn’t be faked as scum. I’m not entirely certain that it’s you over Dunn, but like I said before, I see Dunn/Persovul as T/S

I want to say I would've killed you, given that I thought you were the deflector, but I guess given your percentage I don't know what I would have done. But Nancy had a really strong townread on you last night and I believe she would've voted Dunn or Persivul with me, so if I were scum I could've killed you and won.

Something Smart was paranoid of you but I talked him down. I really didn't think you'd done anything scummy all game but it does worry me that you're suspecting me, it felt like a misrep but maybe that's unfair of me since it's LYLO afterall, and I'm reconsidering everything too.

If only one of Dunn/Persivul is scum, then it's with you. I don't know which of them it is. It could still be both.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Can we still get rooms in LYLO?

Yeah

Want one? But then I can’t mention you. :/

[Nancy Drew 39]

@Dunn, what is your read on Persivul?

[Plotinus]

if we do the rooms quickly then we can all agree to wait at least 48 hours before voting, i think that's only fair.

Get a Room: Nancy, Flavor Leaf

[Plotinus]

These are the options now:

	Dunnstral	Plotinus	Persivul	Flavor Leaf	Total	Percentage
Dunnstral	X	2	3	8	13	43%
Plotinus		X	6	4	12	40%
Persivul			X	7	16	53%
Flavor Leaf				X	19	63%

[Nancy Drew 39]

if we do the rooms quickly then we can all agree to wait at least 48 hours before voting, i think that's only fair.

Get a Room: Nancy, Flavor Leaf

Does Flavor want a room with me still?

[Nancy Drew 39]

These are the options now:

	Dunnstral	Plotinus	Persivul	Flavor Leaf	Total	Percentage
Dunnstral	X	2	3	8	13	43%
Plotinus		X	6	4	12	40%
Persivul			X	7	16	53%
Flavor Leaf				X	19	63%

We probably don’t lose if we lynch Persivul. He’s the one I’m most confident on.

[Dunnstral]

@Dunn, what is your read on Persivul?

Most likely town out of the 3 remaining options

we can all agree to wait at least 48 hours before voting, i think that's only fair.

Nope, I don't agree

VOTE: Plotinus

Plotinus tried to get me in his pocket, and then Persivul tried getting Dunnstral in his.

Neither of us are trying to pocket each other - we haven't been talking in the neighborhood since gamma died for the most part

[Persivul]

UNVOTE:
Percentages are skewed because you lynched and then nightkilled people you were likely to be with

This.

First, Plot tries to sell that scum wouldn't kill the people who increase their odds (which is bullshit, because it keeps their own personal odds of being scum high):

On this setup, if you are scum and you aren't paired with your most likely buddy, then you want to keep that person alive in case you get lynched, right?

For Plot, that would be Clem, and after Clem SS:



Then, Plot leads a lynch on Clem. The progression on this was terrible:
273 - "I'm feeling better about Clemency lately though."
303 - "I don't have an opinion on Clemency; I worry about him when he disappears and then I feel okay about him when he's here."
456 - Then, bang, a vote with no reason - but 3 posts later it moves to Dunn.
554 - Then, all the circumstantial crap about scum keeping their highest match alive, and another vote on Clem, which leads to a lynch.

That makes SS the person adding the most to Plot's odds, and he's night killed.

Then in 588, Plot points out his own low scum odds to Dunn, after the two people increasing his odds conveniently died.

To me it's just incredibly obvious that Plot is scum who's manipulating the rooms and the odds to control the game.

FOS: Plot

[Flavor Leaf]

@Plot - I think it’s completely fair of me to be paranoid.

[Plotinus]

@Plot - I think it’s completely fair of me to be paranoid.

yeah, i guess it is. I am too, after all.

[Plotinus]

Then in 588, Plot points out his own low scum odds to Dunn, after the two people increasing his odds conveniently died.

Pers, you have this habit of describing my actions as if they had no antecedent. I was responding to something Dunnstral did in that post. You act like I did it completely out of nowhere for inscrutable reasons. The same with my vote on Clemency.