Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

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/confirm.

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I decided not to interfere in that stupid hydra discussion. Entirely pointless.

Guilty is overexplaining everything. Bambi is town, hydra IDK. I'm going to find that difficult if they don't sign their posts. Particularly when 3 or 4 of them are attacking Bambi at once.

VOTE: Guiltylion

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bolded/red = everything I've been saying so far this game. You agree entirely with my takes, yet you think I'm scum because I'm "overexplaining" them?

My concern is mostly about this:

I was/am pushing back on the hydra's Bambi scumread to figure out whether it's a genuine scumread or a reactionary OMGUS, because I'm townreading Bambi. Why don't you see that as town motivated?

It reads to me like 'oh look at me I'm being proactive!'

Also this

Yes in effect that works out to also be an indirect defense of Bambi, but the main point was clearly that the hydra's push itself was under scrutiny.

It's the whole meta-analysis of your own posts which I find a little scummy, not what your conclusions are.

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Prodging - I'll post more tonight. I was getting some bad feels off Auro though.

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This game keeps happening on days when I have no time. I utterly despise that hydra-bambi war though, makes it so much harder to go through the game without being clouded by junk. Apologies for not following my previous post up sooner. Imma do this player by player.

Spoiler: Auro

328 is where I started not liking it. It's such a bs reason to shade someone, it's pointless to speculate on why a replacement. And probably mildly unethical. But then he admits he was wrong, so IDK. I don't like 302. It almost seemed to catalyse the Clem lynch, which was horrible btw. I also don't like 532. In no way is this slot unlynchable, in fact perhaps the opposite is the case. Not happy with the number of people townreading this.

Spoiler: Egix

There's a bunch on nothingy posts here, but that's been par for the course in this game, so probably not AI. Didn't have anything to so with the clem wagon which I think it the most telling moment of D1, so null.

Spoiler: Bujaber

I like the pushback against the hydra thing. Shame it was ignored. Got kind of pushed into voting for Clem, but I felt that was some town willingness to engage with (suspected) other town, to make something happy. I find that vote much better than Auro's. Gonna say pretty hard town here.

Spoiler: Bambi

I completely hated the stupid Hydra discussion. But I've said that before so I'll not get into it again. 404 and 405 are such bs. There was no need to hammer that as town, but the whole nature of the game meant she felt that she could and get away with it. I don't get why everyone believes that she's a mafia and not a werewolf. Like it makes way more sense for ww to claim mafia than the other way roun

Spoiler:

d. I think this is ww.

Spoiler: McQueen

Hasn't said much, but did keep his vote on Clem all the way through. That makes me slightly suspicious.

Spoiler: Vedith

Some trolling, but actually some reasonable posts. I don't think they did so bad in joining the Clem wagon - that all stemmed from Auro. Then there is actually some coherent thought and shifting of position due to shifting of facts. Mild townread on this.

Spoiler: Almost 50

I like this slot actually. Not many posts, but the maths in 519 is legit. Though I think we should be trying to lynch scum though,

Spoiler: Brassherald

I feel the AtE's are completely genuine, as this game got fucked up with that hydra shit.

Spoiler: Hyra

Kill me now. This is such a shit slot, but I have no idea if it's scum, and we can't policy lynch today (or yesterday, for that matter). I feel bad but all I can do it ignore these posts.

A50, how can you differentiate between WW and Mafia reads in general? That confuses me so much.

Bambi/Auro WW's would be funny. I have some conviction that Bambi is actually a wolf.

However, I agree with A50 about the maths. We should NL. I think Bambi/Auro is possible WW, with Bambi more sure.

VOTE: No Lynch

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I changed my mind halfway through. Shoot me.

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1. Ehhh I'm not sure about this. Maybe it's ok. Just feels wrong to me in a way that meta doesn't. In any case I also think it's useless.
2. RL stuff happens - I probsbly should have V/La'd but whatever. IT was a bad lynch because we had lots of time left and there was like 6 pages of actual game (I do not count the pregame stuff)
3. Why would Mafia claim Mafia? Why would town claim mafia? To see why he did so, you just need to look at what has happened about that today. Everyone is just assuming that he was mafia claiming Mafia, which almost gives him a free pass due to the nature of this setup. Wouldn't work anywhere in another setup of course.
4. Yes I think this very specific AI comes from town.

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One major force was town does not make the whole wagon town (or good, for that matter). I mentioned it already, but I feel that Bujaber was trying to engage somewhat constructively, while you were trying to keep it going for a mislynch.

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But it’s in the WW’s interests to shoot mafia, no? I haven’t looked at the numbers but since Maf win when there’s equal numbers wolves have to kill 2 maf in some way (lynch or NK). Since we’re more interested in a wolf (taking your view that Bambi is maf) to lynch, the wolves would really want to kill mafia, otherwise they’re heading towards a loss.

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roster you do realize that brass said the reason he was mad was because we didnt do rvs right

yeah, I mean he's right? AtE might be the wrong word for it, IDK. It's the anger.

If brass is telling the truth we'd be doing everyone a service by lynching him. He wants to replace out but feels unable to morally. It's merciful.

If he isn't playing the game at all and faking rage because he's scum then lynching him lynches scum.

There's really only one choice

Meh, if he wanted to replace out he could (btw Brass, I think we have some level of goodness going on now). You'd hope a replacee would form their own opinion.

We shouldn't be lynching brass today.

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Auro, we mislynched D1 (and townie kill N1) so we're in a not-ideal situation.

2 maf kills is of great benefit to us as well, possibly even more so than WW. Assuming Bambi is maf:

Today: 5-3-2

Tomorrow: 5-2-2

Lynch maf. If kill town then

4-1-2

If kill maf then:

5-0-2

With many seer checks. It is better for us to leave wolves than mafia as there is a seer. That situation does not benefit wolves.

If we didn't lynch maf (e.g. wolves kill Bambi, if he's not WW) and mislynched then it's 4-2-2 before nightkill and we can reach 3-2-2 or 4-1-2. Then we go hard on the wolf hunting, but it's tough obviously. Then again I don't think we're too far off 33/33/33 in the first and 50/50 in the second (with the wolves) so it's not that much of a degredation, and considering we had two bad things happen already it's not such bad odds.

If wolves kill townie, then it's not great, sure. But we're in 4-3-2 and need to lynch a wolf just as much as before. Wolves cannot kill town or they definitely lose, so again I don't think we've lost that much if anything.

Pedits: Way too many posts to comment on, but I still believe in no-lynch here.

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If he's WW that claims Seer, the real Seer doesn't CC, tries to find his partner, and outs tomorrow. If he's Mafia who claims Seer, he's 100% dead tonight.

If he claims seer, he gives last night's results, and we'll find out whether he's telling the truth tomorrow.

This if we're lynching. But we should no lynch.

Pedit: Ninja'd lol

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Wolves don't win unless they kill the seer. Because Seer can out d3 most likely and will probably have a couple of clears/guilties at least.

I'm not 4-3-2 is less EV. And in any case, EV today from no-lynch is also influenced by the other outcome (5-0-2 is so favourable to town).

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Auro you keep forgetting about the Seer. Please address this point.

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A cop with 3 checks already? It's autowin if all the checks are still alive.

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Do you still think a no-lynch is bad, now that you've realised about the Seer?

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I think the best thing for town today is to lynch mafia.

Best thing is to lynch Werewolf. Lynching mafia means it's unlikely (unlikelier than a no lynch - I can explain why if you want) there's a town majority tomorrow, which is important because in a 4-2-2 situation mafia may legitimately elect to lynch town, and then the game is over for us). I know it seems counterintuitive, but 4-3-2 is a *better* possible situation than 4-2-2 for two reasons:

-It's less likely to happen (4-3-2 or 4-2-2 are worst possible outcomes IMO from either play).
-From 4-2-2 we either end up in 5p lylo with no cop and potentially just seer as clear which is shit ( 3-2-0. I would imagine we have almost 0 chance of winning that), 2-1-1 which is better but still not great, or we lose. And the two not-lose scenarios are somewhat Grim. In 4-3-2 the extra maf means that 4-1-2 is possible, and also I'm not convinced 3-2-2 is worse than 3-2-0.

Sorry if it's a bit confusing, but I firmly believe that we should no lynch.

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Last number is WW sorry. If others weren't the same we might have been talking at cross-purposes :O.

From 4-2-2 we mislynch, WW shoots town 2-2-2. Only way to not lose is lynch WW, WW shoots mafia, 2-1-1 as I said.

From 4-2-2 we lynch WW twice, WW shoots mafia is only way to avoid 50% mafia, so 3-2-0 is only possibility.

I don't see any other way to not lose? I could be wrong of course.

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I was slightly wrong when I said 4-2-2 is game over. It's just very grim.

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Well, then we end up with 3-2-2, 4 votes needed to lynch.

If we lynch today then that is the situation going into a night. If we no lynch, then (assuming everything else is the same), that is the situation going into a day (from 5-2-2 mislynch or 4-3-2 maf lynch). I think that's an important point to remember.

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I have some maths skills. I made a tree for myself but I don't think I can upload it. Thing you need to remember is that probabilities going along the tree are multiplied (the events are assumed to be independent, which is a dubious assumption for a mafia game but I'm going to assume random lynches and kills).

I don't have time to calculate everything, but if we lynch today probabilities for tomorrow are (T-M-W). I'm not including seer claims because that gets too time consuming:

3-3-2 - 28.6%
4-2-2 - 42.9%
5-1-2 - 8.6%
5-2-1 - 7.5%
4-3-1 - 12.5%

If we no lynch, then probabilities for tomorrow are:

4-3-2 - 62.5%
5-2-2 - 37.5%

From 4-3-2:

2-3-2 - 22.2%
3-2-2 - 44.4%
4-1-2 - 11.1%
3-3-1 - 12.7%
4-2-1 - 9.5%.

Those are the numbers I believe. I could calculate the EV but it would take ages. If you add 3-3-2 to 4-2-2 then it's more likely to get this type of scenario through lynching than through not lynching.

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So I think this supports no lynch.

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Me+Vedith+Brass+A50+Auro. Only needs 5 so done.

A50’s maths is biased by reads, and is from his own perspective. Mine assumes nothing about anyone’s alignment, and I think still justifies no lynch. I’m interested to know what you disagree with about my maths (btw Seer is less likely to die in NL as I don’t think it’s at all sure that Bambi is maf and not WW).

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I agree completely with BH's plan. I also agree that the Seer should out (unless you somehow managed to hit dead twice). If we focus on the wolves, you're safe from NK at least tonight, as wolves MUST kill mafia to avoid losing. There's a reasonable chance that they can do this - Egix/McQueen are good bets for Mafia I think. And one other, who I'm not doing a good job of finding. Maybe the hydra.

I think Bambi/Auro is the wolf team. I feel more sure about Bambi than Auro - that forgetting about the Seer thing felt genuine to me, and IDK if a wolf would do that. But they might do if they're trying to think in town mode. I feel very strongly that the mafia-claiming was trying to WIFOM us as much as possible.

So VOTE: Bambi

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I don't buy this. Someone claiming Mafia would definitely raise red flags on the back of my neck if I were seer; I guarantee any reasonable seer who noticed that would've checked you N1. I don't see how this helps town, since it does more to draw an investigation than avoid one. The fact that we haven't have a seer claim a guilty on you means you're probably not WW, but I don't see town ever doing this.

I didn't think about that. Yeah Bambi is probably Mafia then. A50, do you feel it's right for Seer to out in this situation? I feel their survival is pretty likely, so shouldn't be a deterrent.

I was getting some associative feels between Bambi and Auro, so maybe I should be looking for another with them. Egix/McQueen would be an obvious idea. I was getting some associatives with Egix and Bambi from reading Egix's ISO early on, so maybe place Egix as Mafia and McQueen as wolf. IDK, maybe that gives me McQueen and Hydra/Buj as wolves. I feel strongly that A50 and BH are town.

I felt quite strongly about Bujaber town though. Hydra kind of just ignored the McQueen wagon from what I can see, so they could very well be together.

VOTE: Applejack

Btw if Seer outs and didn't investigate Bambi I might change my mind again.

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I agree with Bujaber's plan - lynching town or wolves is a prob loss for us, so we should aim to hit Mafia.

If you truly believe that Bambi is mafia, should we be lynching there? Same applied to you Buj.

I'm getting cold feet about the whole Bambi maf thing. WIFOM is hurting my head. I mean, it makes no sense for town to claim mafia for the seer reasons A50 mentioned, but then it also makes no sense for anyone else to, so maybe it was just a misguided town play, IDK.

I also think it is better to lynch wolves, not mafia. Game doesn't end today no matter the flip or nk, and we're relying on wolves shooting mafia anyway, and this is more likely to happen if we Lynch wolves and not maf (2 scum with one stone).

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*shouldn't we be lynching there?

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V/La until Monday

I’m still pretty happy with my vote where it is.

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Just to say that I’m here. I’ll catch up later (though there seemed to be a hammer, so maybe it’ll be night before I can)

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Mafia wins.

Solve was Brass/Bambi town
Egix/Auro maf
TW Wolf

Only way TW could win was if Egix was town, but since nobody thought Egix was town best play for you three was to vote for a draw/no lynch into happily ever after. No way that town could win, since wolf would have to game throw by killing Egix or allowing his lynch - either way loses for wolf.

Shitty game, but gg.

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Hey . I couldn’t believe how slow this game was going.

Thing is if A50 didn’t kill Seer they get confirmed as WW. He had to leave someone else unchecked by Seer.

It was the no-lynch which killed both town and WW IMO.

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I know, when I saw it I was like damn, we’re not gonna win this D3.

But actually killing me was a bad move because it forced the Seer kill. If I was checked then it would have been fine, but it didn’t seem to me like that was going to happen.

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Brass only time you could happily ever after was in this position, since 3-1-1 with WW conf is probably town win.

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Yeah but when you’re in that position I think you win the game

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Regardless, best choice for WW is to basically force town to HEA which is what A50 did. Only problem is he disappeared so didn’t do it.

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Prodging - I'll post more tonight. I was getting some bad feels off Auro though.

We were panicking about this post in the mafia PT. only thing was I hadn’t realised Auro was my buddy at that point! I can’t rememeber exactly when D1 I realised Auro was my partner, might have actually been when I saw him posting in the PT N1.