Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

[BuJaber]

Oh GL is in this.

Rematch. You were a formidable opponent in our last and only game.

[BuJaber]

FYI voting does not really mean anything in pre-game but I'll still track it for lols

Does this mean the votes will be reflected in the first VC once the game starts?


If yes, VOTE: Bambi Jay

If no, VOTE: Bambi Jay

[BuJaber]

Oh GL is in this.

Rematch. You were a formidable opponent in our last and only game.

why are you assuming we're opponents again here?

(also for the record we've played two games, the open game where I caught ya D1 but then the mini micro with Redflavor and MathDino where you snowed me)

Oh then I was thinking of someone else. Either another guilty or another lion.

It's multiball, half of everyone else is scum.

[BuJaber]

To be fair, would invisibility be any easier to read if he was soloing?

[BuJaber]

If either of these two flip scum I'd be so impressed with bambi.

[BuJaber]

Also I thought you were a hydra with elsa for some reason. That's who the joke vote was jabbing at.

[BuJaber]

This discussion is stupid.

Can't policy lynch a hydra for being a hydra.
Can't punish someone for something they might do before they actually do it.
Don't need to know who is talking to sort a hydra. It might help but you might be surprised to see that having no meta to fall back on gives you more objectivity.

Spamming the thread is anti-town but unfortunately site meta dictates that we can't lynch that behavior or else town loses a lot of members. Because it's nai. It's personality. It would only take a few games of lynching spammers to end this behavior but I doubt it actually happens because people here look for quick gratification instead of long-term town benefit. You just have to send your hopes and prayers that the people that spam can sleep at night with this crime if town, and if scum you'll catch them anyway because they post a lot = bigger chance for fucking up.


So both of you please stop because ironically your push bambi has caused both you and the hydra to spam like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[BuJaber]

Don't need to know who is talking to sort a hydra. It might help but you might be surprised to see that having no meta to fall back on gives you more objectivity.

BuJaber do you actually seriously believe this? Hydras are almost always harder for me to sort, especially when they're not sigging their posts. Any inconsistencies or questionable thought processes/pushes can be explained away by "hydra dissonance", and while there's a few town-indicative things that hydras uniquely can do, there's always a deeper level of paranoia about whether they're scum intentionally faking a hydra townslip. I really hate the practice of hydra-ing (outside of a mentor/mentee kind of learning hydra), it's cheating the game by giving multiple voices to one "player" in the game. And crafty/manipulative scum players will absolutely take advantage of the confusion created by doing so.

Frankly I don't have a lot of experience playing with hydras of players I have also played with solo.
So I can't say it from experience, but I would also agree that sorting a hydra is harder than sorting a solo player. However my point wasn't that it's easier or that I prefer trying to sort a hydra or whatever. Bambi was making it sound like its impossible to sort the hydra if they don't sign their posts and arguing that the act of not signing is scummy on its own. Let's not pretend that's true. There is an advantage to being forced to judge each post by itself to determine if its scummy or not, untainted by any previous meta or personal feelings towards the poster. You have just demonstrated this yourself.


Bambi has asked them to sign their posts. They refused. We have no power to force them. It serves no purpose to talk about it further. If bambi wants to argue that that is a reason to lynch, then fine, but I don't agree. And while I think the hydra is doing a pretty bad job of defending themselves, I fully understand the frustration of being attacked before the game even starts simply for being who they are (in this case, for being a hydra). We all had the option of following the queue thread to see who is signing up for the game and to /out if we didn't want to play with someone.

Pushing someone's lynch over a policy you can frame as pro-town (or you actually believe is pro-town) is the easiest way to fake town passion as scum. I know because I do it a lot.

[BuJaber]

No I thought about it and no. Bambi is probably town here.
I think scum are a little more self-conscious. Bambi continued fighting what should have looked like a losing battle (or at least one that wouldn't be easy to win), they have shown clear hypocrisy by spamming, and they are walking the scumcase backwards by reaching the conclusion first and finding reasons later. When scum do it they invent reasons to justify the fake reads. Bambi seems to be stumbling on things she thinks proves her case.

#166 in particular looks like genuine confirmation bias.

[BuJaber]

If anyone other then me or Applejack gets lynched I'll be disappointed.

How about not creating an artificial gladiator situation.

[BuJaber]

I think bambi is town like I said.

Who else is scummy to you @Hydra heads?

[BuJaber]

My immediate reaction was to look unfavorably towards those that are not commenting on what's happening, but then it's technically pre-game and well it's a weird situation we have.

Of the people that have posted so far I have a scumlean on guilty for a reason I am not yet ready to share. I admit I did not see what Egix saw. I did not interpret that post as nefarious, just kinda surprised at his reaction to the argument between y'all.

[BuJaber]

My immediate reaction was to look unfavorably towards those that are not commenting on what's happening, but then it's technically pre-game and well it's a weird situation we have.

Put it this way, if the game had started, ignoring the elephant in the room like that would be scummy.

I just think it might be NAI here. Also because it's been less time than it feels like. You and bambi really did talk a lot.

[BuJaber]

That entire roster post is iffy.

Also regardless of what GL flips this game I think I will name my next hydra / alt account Town[something].. it's foolproof.

[BuJaber]

controversial opinion time: the game is dead because most of you tried to replace RVS with pre-game antics, which isn't reliable and shouldn't be the basis for reads

It's not like role PMs will change

People be postin, town should be sortin.

Is the case on clem that he said "both are scum"?

[BuJaber]

Umm.. erm..

@Auro: Why don't you just check the replacements thread. DT has flaked on at least 3 different games already. In other words, he's flaked the site.

In other news, I BLOODY HATE THE HYDRA (and to a lesser degree Bambi) for the mess they made this thread turn into. By the time I was on page 5 I was considering making a new account called Almost100 because of you two. (or rather, you FIVE).

Anyways, I decided to forget about that and start fresh from this point on. I swear if that shitposting goes on though I will park my vote on one of these two slots until either I or they die, and if

they

die before me I will park my vote on the other one two, so BEHAVE!

Woop woop A28 in the house.

But no go through the torture of reading it.

People tell me I shouldn't townread bambi. Give me your opinion.

And to whoever asked, as far as I know (bambi has a lot of alts), I have only modded a game she was in. I haven't played with her before. (Can I use he/him bambi? )

[BuJaber]

What you said re: self-consciousness, lack of stubbornness applies for newbie scum IMO, not so much for experienced scum who knows what they're doing. I just lost a game against a scumslot (Pinturicchio) that was pushing me with very dumb reasons all game, and I made the mistake of townreading their conviction in said stupidity. In this case I don't see how you view it as a "losing" battle especially with other slots agreeing they'd prolly be up for PL-ing the hydra, and the hydra not really making any effort to improve on their posting - if I were to make a guess, I think more slots would be voting 4heads in a hypothetical gladiate at the moment. As far as "stumbling on things" to prove her case goes, can you walk me through why that's any different from "making up reasons"?

Also, my input that Jay is experienced and also competent scum - how does that change your opinion? I want to hear your updated thoughts before A50 offers his.

It was a losing battle because their main basis fot the lynch was discriminatory. They started with the push and case before the hydra did anything worth scumreading for. Despite what anybody's opinion on the hydra is, they were correct on this point and if it were a case on anyone else other than a hydra (and indeed one not-quite well-liked in terms of posting style of its individual heads) it would not just be rediculous, but Bambi would have gotten hounded for it.

I concede that there was/is more support for the PL than I would have expected. And that speaks more about the people willing to vote there than it does about Bambi. Though if scum!Bambi is capable of convincing town to do such a thing on such a terrible premise then she would in fact be more competent than I'm probably giving her credit for.

The stumbling on things vs fake reasons has to do with timing. The fake reasons come before or accompanying the vote/case/push. What we have here in this game is Bambi reacting to hydra posts and adding reasons to a case that started out with no reason apart from it's a 4-headed hydra therefore they will talk too much. They also seemed to reread certain posts with the same viewpoint of this needs to be lynched. This latter point is much harder to distinguish from scum fake reasoning and is more subjective but on this I just found their posts to be genuine conclusions of a townie train of thought, rather than someone looking for things that sound right to support their fake read.

Just knowing that she is very capable of playing scum and sounding townie doesn't make me drop her to a nullread (because of the reasons above), but it does make me less confident, and I will maintain a healthy dose of paranoia regarding the slot going forward.

What bothers me is that bambi's action has created a pro-scum scenario (I currently townread her so think this was unintentional), because people have lost interest in the game, and we might end up being forced to deal with the 2 slots as if it was indeed a gladiate. But to remedy this I suggest we hold off on that until day 2 anyway. Today we need to lynch someone else.

And on that note... brass is doing nothing this game.. not the brass I know and like.
Plus wtf is this:

controversial opinion time: the game is dead because most of you tried to replace RVS with pre-game antics, which isn't reliable and shouldn't be the basis for reads

gohs dang this post is worthlesss
VOTE: mcqueen

Is a worthless post really worthy of a scum read, though?

[BuJaber]

FTR I felt that she was kinda lynchbaity as town in the game I modded. That could be part of why I am underestimating her town game. People who are somewhat easy to lynch as town have an inherent disadvantage when playing scum.

[BuJaber]

It was a losing battle because their main basis fot the lynch was discriminatory. They started with the push and case before the hydra did anything worth scumreading for. Despite what anybody's opinion on the hydra is, they were correct on this point and if it were a case on anyone else other than a hydra (and indeed one not-quite well-liked in terms of posting style of its individual heads) it would not just be rediculous, but Bambi would have gotten hounded for it.

Jay's initial argument (in my recollection) wasn't that 4heads was a good PL simply due to spam - it was that a 4 headed Hydra was a difficult sort due to their brushing off scumcases citing "dissonance" and who'd have a large voice going into D2 on a town lynch which would make them dangerous.

While I do not agree with the reasoning, it's not a ridiculous premise. Jay clearly thought he'd win this battle when he entered it, and also through the exchange.

The stumbling on things vs fake reasons has to do with timing. The fake reasons come before or accompanying the vote/case/push. What we have here in this game is Bambi reacting to hydra posts and adding reasons to a case that started out with no reason apart from it's a 4-headed hydra therefore they will talk too much. They also seemed to reread certain posts with the same viewpoint of this needs to be lynched. This latter point is much harder to distinguish from scum fake reasoning and is more subjective but on this I just found their posts to be genuine conclusions of a townie train of thought, rather than someone looking for things that sound right to support their fake read.

You're basically describing conviction here - how I see it, it's equally as easy for scum!Jay to decide on deathtunneling the slot, and carrying that conviction through the day. It's dangerous to townread conviction, especially in Jay's case. If you find their posts "genuine from a townie train of thought" I'm taking it as a gut read.

Also, note that this is multiball - scum on either faction still want to hunt and lynch the other.

Sure maybe that was her original case, but it doesn't change the fact that she pushed someone on a hypothetical. It'd be a lot different if the hydra did this and then bambi pushed them. Like I said somewhere before you can't punish someone because they might commit a crime. They have to actually do something first.

I think what I was describing is not just simple conviction but I'll keep your opinion under advisement. I don't see the value of second guessing my reads just yet. If some signs begin to appear that show that my interpretation of events is wrong I'll reevaluate.

[BuJaber]

sorry i'm not really in it
i slipped and smashed up my shoulder because winter weather so i'm just laying down and enjoying copious painkillers

Sorry, hope you feel better.

You should replace out then.

[BuJaber]

Because I don't know who to vote for yet.

I feel like voting the hydra now and maybe bambi tomorrow fixes some issues with a game but it feels like I got manipulated into this by bambi intentionally kicking this game in the groin.

[BuJaber]

And if I can scumread bambi I'd be happy but I can't. Can't shake the townread.

[BuJaber]

Ive been busy all day.
So I agree with every comment said so far.

That's literally impossible given the conflicts.

[BuJaber]

I concede that there was/is more support for the PL than I would have expected. And that speaks more about the people willing to vote there than it does about Bambi.

BuJaber can you go into detail on this

who were those people and what their support said to you about them

I might be nitpicking but I feel like this was an odd comment given that my memory of the game and a review of your ISO says you didn't really seem concerned with people supporting the PL prior to this

Yeah because I didn't state it explicitly and I don't have a problem yet with any specific person, because apart from like a townread on bambi and aura I don't have any other reads yet. People are using the bambi vs hydra and the non traditional game start as an excuse to not read and not post and they can't all be scum so it's hard to sort them.

But I thought I was clearly opposed to the PL, and I was generally surprised by people being for it and being convinced by bambi's clear discrimination.

Off the top of my head I only remember you being one of them. And it's not that agreeing with the PL makes someone scum, but it really makes me question how easily the players here can be manipulated by a poor case imo. You don't specifically fit into this latter category though but as you can see the difference between you, aura, and bambi and the rest of the players is that you're actually posting and sharing your opinion. The rest are kind of a blurry blob of indistinguishable names atm.

I'll vote for clem because I townread aura.
VOTE: clemency

[BuJaber]

Lol @Gamma.

Well played.

[BuJaber]

Yeah let's lynch them.

But lynch brass first.

VOTE: brassherald

[BuJaber]

Actually between hydra and bambi is a tough choice.

[BuJaber]

I usually trust my read pre-flip in those situations where I can't decide, though everyone else did seem to think I was townreading Bambi for all the wrong reasons.

[BuJaber]

I am inclined to give a lot of weight to my early reads.
It's hard to agree with or even understand bambi's play but I still kinda think his play alone makes me townread him. The choice of NK given the last few posts of GL is what is making me reconsider.

If I have any choice in the matter I'm lynching him before lylo with a claim like that, just in case, and because I hate scum claims. It should be eradicated as a behavior. In other words I'm treating it like a miller claim.

[BuJaber]

Correct the only really bad lynch is seer

[BuJaber]

This shitty game isn't even fun because you all skipped the RVS stage. Legitimately, expect me to meet your anti-fun attitudes with this much venom until I die because fuck you all for making this game miserable

People started posting in pre-game.

Just because it's officially called "pre-game" doesn't make it nonexisting. RVS was not skipped, it just started and finished all in "pre-game".

For all intents and purposes game started when the mod opened the thread.

[BuJaber]

I don't know about all the numbers and I still have to think about the no lynch option (instinctively it feels too early for that now), but I do agree with the WW/not WW readlist thing.

[BuJaber]

If brass is telling the truth we'd be doing everyone a service by lynching him. He wants to replace out but feels unable to morally. It's merciful.

If he isn't playing the game at all and faking rage because he's scum then lynching him lynches scum.

There's really only one choice

[BuJaber]

Okay so I thought about this a lot, and I won't bore you with the number of times Iswitched between thinking aura is right to A50 and vice versa.

Suffice to say I'm not the best at math, but I believe the person who is the closest to getting it right is roster.

I think the best thing for town today is to lynch mafia.

[BuJaber]

Why?

Because the biggest flaw in Aura's plan is ignoring the threat that 3 mafia would pose to town. WW's fear the seer. They are not guaranteed to shoot Bambi (or any other mafia for that matter).

And the biggest flaw in A50's plan is underestimating the effect of multiball on the wagons. Mafia can't exercise their power effectively in fear of exposing themselves to the wolves. Also at 3-3-2 town have no incentive to actually lynch wolves, and whether or not the wolves openwolf or not, mafia will have a hard time dodging the lynch there.

The really valuable play here is guaranteeing we don't kill seer. That what was one of the things that made me want to no lynch. But why risk starting tomorrow with 3 mafia alive. WWs are not yet forced to shoot mafia BECAUSE THE SEER IS ALIVE.

Lynch mafia. Flip helps with associatives. Tomorrow ratio is either 4-2-2 or 5-1-2. With just 1 guilty the game becomes very easy for town. Even 1 true clear would be very empowering, but that's pretty circumstantial. 2 clears with 2 mafia alive is probably good enough odds though.

So in conclusion, it's bambi lynching time. VOTE: Bambi

Also I like the new brass so much. The guy insisting on ignoring posts because of a technicality and getting angry at people for reacting to game-relevant option was imo a must-lynch.

[BuJaber]

@Aura - yeah okay I typed this before you admitted your mistake.

Anyway above is why we lynch mafia.

[BuJaber]

Can you walk me through the scenarios you are calling auto - lose because I'm not seeing it? WW would never intentionally shoot town if it will give mafia the win. I'm not sure how 4-2-2 + mislynch = town loss.

[BuJaber]

4-2-2 is a day start ratio, so 3-2-2 cannot be day again unless no lynch is hammerred.

[BuJaber]

Another way to think of it is we want to get to 4-2-1.

A50 is supposed to be good at this sort of thing. If you can convince me no lynch gives us the best chance at 4-2-1 I'll agree to it.

But from the brief numbers I ran in my head, and assuming nobody throws, lynching mafia is the best bet.

[BuJaber]

How would those numbers be any different if we lynched Bambi?

Those numbers assume the seer is alive tomorrow, that Bambi is mafia, and therefore that Bambi is not the seer.

If we lynch Bambi or we no lynch the seer has to survive the NK anyway. The odds of the seer living and getting a guilty are the same in both choices if we assume (which you did) that neither the wolves nor the seer will target Bambi at night.

So really all that no lynch does is protect the mafia.

And considering how desperate you seem to be to associate auro with Bambi as mafia while advocating for NL points to you being mafia actually.
Get no lynch now, hope the seer gets a guilty, which would force remaining WW to shoot Bambi, and then you push your auro case to get him lynched, resulting in what would be 3-2-1, unless auro is WW, then it's 4-2 nightless.

[BuJaber]

I thought A50's vote got counted twice?
I'll check

[BuJaber]

Nevermind it got hammered.
Auro

[BuJaber]

Me+Vedith+Brass+A50+Auro. Only needs 5 so done.

A50’s maths is biased by reads, and is from his own perspective. Mine assumes nothing about anyone’s alignment, and I think still justifies no lynch. I’m interested to know what you disagree with about my maths (btw Seer is less likely to die in NL as I don’t think it’s at all sure that Bambi is maf and not WW).

Yours is assuming everything is random. I think it's good for setup design but not that effective for making this decision.

[BuJaber]

Auro could you link me some scum games of yours please?

[BuJaber]

Auro could you link me some scum games of yours please?

I'm outside right now, but I can do that sometime later.

Is there any specific concern you have about me you'd like to talk about?

Nahhh. It might taint my research.

[BuJaber]

I think it's too late for that.. best that everybody hypo as soon as day 3 starts if seer is not killed.

[BuJaber]

Half of us doing it in twilight defeats the purpose imo

[BuJaber]

1. Considering seer is alive, Mafia are more dangerous than wolves at the moment.

2. The usefulness of two seer 'innos' depends on who gets lynched imo. So if seer has a guilty they should claim, but not if they have 2 innos yet.

3. If we're hypoing this time we better do it early enough so everyone can do it, or not do it at all.

4. I wasn't convinced by roster or A50's math for the reasons I outlined and still believe no lynch yesterday serves mafia's interests. I'm assuming there were at least 1 but probably 2 mafia voting for no lynch.

I'll be looking primarily at those players, focusing in particular on bambi who claimed mafia, A50 who was the main proponent of NL, at least the most vocal one, and Auro who switched his opinion at a critical time to hammer it.

There's something in particular I'm looking for in your scum games Auro, but I asked basically because of the above. I haven't had time to read through em yet though.

[BuJaber]

@BuJ: From what you're saying, you want today's lynch to be on Mafia and not WW?

Yes

I also want to hear more thoughts on my proposal to try to leash a werewolf. Preferably from the entire player list.

Only issue with your proposal is your assuming WWs CAN shoot the mafia. If they get it wrong it'd be game over. Considering the past 2 nights, I'd say you're overestimating their ability.

If we mafia hunt and miss, the WWs have a better chance ro shoot mafia.

This also works to protect the seer.

Also consider that seer and mafia may look somewhat similar to the eyes of WW considering seer has an incentive to not obvtown, and also because both seer and mafia may give off associative tells (seer with his innos, mafia with their partners).

As for the seer, the only person I could potentially see the benefit of claiming 2 innos from would be Bambi if he's seer, because he is in danger of being lynched and also in danger of being shot if he is not WW. Otherwise I still think 2 innos is not yet enough. But I am also saying we need to hit mafia today.

Let's put it another way if we mislynch, and WW shoot wrong, townies lose outright. If we shoot WW and WW shoot wrong, both townies and WW lose. Do you place this much confidence on the wolves to shoot correctly? You've seen how bad they are.

Roster I am concerned that you seem to be too agreeable. Someone proposes something and you're one of the first to agree and not question any part of that plan. It strikes me as a rather rare occurence for a townie to find another person's ideas completely fault free. And so far you did it at least twice.

Okay I am sure now that one of A50/Auro is mafia. I've concluded that it probably wasn't theater between them so both of them being mafia is out.

So we lynch in bambi/A50/Auro today.

[BuJaber]

Hydra isn't a bad lynch either I suppose, if I recall they were for the no lynch even if they didn't vote.

[BuJaber]

They also haven't been doing all that much once the bambi v hydra fight was finished

[BuJaber]

Like the complete opposite of Bambi's prophecy lol

[BuJaber]

I'm town though, and I'm not convinced A50 is Mafia. BuJ, your premise is that the No Lynch plan explicitly benefited only Mafia, therefore being vocal or on the wagon is Maf-indicative?

More accurately I believe it benefits Mafia, then town, then werewolves. There are circumstances depending on who gets lynched/shot/inno'd which would change this, but the no lynch itself with the ratios we had benefitted mafia.

5 people is a lot of votes so I think it very likely that at least 1 mafia had to join to guarantee it happens. I'm also very suspicious of people who push in certain directions and then not vote for the thing they're pushing for. But nobody did that openly. Only the hydra agreed but didn't vote, but they weren't really pushing it so it's not an obvious red flag.

I think if we lynch one of mafia/hydra and the wolves shoot the other would be really good. If the one we lynch ends up being the mafia I think the wolves will not pass on the chance to go for seer, but I think that's good also even if they shoot them, especially if the seer crumbed.

Because if we have a ratio of 3-2-2, both scum factions have incentive to lynch the other. We'd have a reasonable chance of shooting a wolf, after which the other wolf would shoot another mafia (say whoever we don't lynch today out of bambi/hydra).

I hate to let you and A50 live another day unsorted but it does seem like there's something really fishy going on with bambi/hydra.

[BuJaber]

What you actually said was they'd spam up the thread and make it difficult for us to read them.

[BuJaber]

*shouldn't we be lynching there?

Yes we should. All I suggested was one of bambi/hydra, because I think Wolves will shoot bambi if bambi lives and isn't a wolf, but it's probably better if we lynched her outright instead of trusting the wolves.

VOTE: Bambi

[BuJaber]

VOTE: bambi
realized we weren't doing this
i think town bambi would have not doubled down on the claim

She didn't.

[BuJaber]

We have to lynch bambi come on.

He claimed mafia. He's either mafia or WW.

Let's not rely on WWs to shoot who we want. Their reads suck.

[BuJaber]

You and A50 both take the gambit thing way too far.

There's a limit to how much you should gambit as town, because guess what your fellow townies are trying to scumhunt and crazy lying that looks like scum trying to avoid getting guiltied or killed is exactly the sort of thing townies should pounce on.

If you're town you're not a hero for claiming mafia. You've had a negative influence on the game because of it. Look at how many times people have made a decision to vote somebody else or vote no lynch in hopes of WWs specifically targetting you, or because they're putting off lynching you until later on.

What I haven't seen people do is seriously consider and discuss the fact that you're claim that seer shouldn't waste time investigating you is a perfect way for a WW to hide.

And you know what I thought of that and I also thought "If Bambi claimed mafia and he's not mafia, then the mafia would know he lied" that would suggest that at least 3 non townies should theoretically have a strong reason to lynch you. Not to mention any number of townies. So the fact that you haven't been lynched yet and even today more people are voting for the hydra than for you is suspicious as hell. It makes a lot more sense for you to be mafia and your mafia buddies don't want you dead.

You say I shouldn't lynch you because I know that you are capable of doing this gambit as town. But that implies that you wouldn't do something like this as a non-townie and we both know that's not true.

[BuJaber]

No lady smarty-pants .. they don't need to literally say 'we're mafia so we know Bambi is lying, lynch them'. They would just know you're lying and assume you're WW and would want to lynch you to secure their win. The fact that despite some people saying you should be lynched but you haven't until now been pushed seriously is what's worrying.

And I couldn't care less if the hydra gets lynched. They're a lurky slot that is not contributing to the game. But I'm pretty sure the whole thing between you is not theater and I am more confident that you will flip scum than I am of the hydra. So you're either arrogant or naive to think that you are actually less deserving of this lynch.

You came in to this game with a prejudiced view against the hydra, and when they proved you wrong by not spamming the thread except when you were fighting them pre-game, you are still thirsty for their blood.

[BuJaber]

And don't worry I know what I'm doing. This whole thing really is about seeing who votes you and who doesn't. There's gonna be a whole lot of questioning of those that shaded, or scumread, or advocated for your lynch earlier in the game but are not following through with it.

[BuJaber]

There's gonna be a whole lot of questioning of those that shaded, or scumread, or advocated for your lynch earlier in the game but are not following through with it.

The mistake with your line of thought is to assume that Wolves won't shoot Bambi.
In the current gamestate, they *have* to shoot Mafia, or they'll likely lose - especially if we hit a wolf today.
They have no option but to shoot Bambi Jay.
I'd rather trust Wolves to play to their win-con rather than gamethrow, and this makes the hydra a better lynch than Jay.

I am worried about the hydra flipping town and Bambi being a wolf. In which case can you guarantee that they would shoot mafia?

I know the odds of that are very low, even the analysis of the game state suggests Bambi has to be mafia, but it is not worth the risk when we can lynch Bambi now.

Also I think you could be mafia yourself so I'm very careful about sheeping you atm.

[BuJaber]

Pretty sure roster is town.

I feel fairly confident you're town now brass after you started playing the game.

Mcqueen probably isn't wolf given he hasn't been pounced on yet despite being lurky. Could be mafia.

Hydra / bambi aren't the same scum faction. Could be opposite factions or one scum one town.

And I think one of A50/Auro are mafia.

That's all I can say with any confidence honestly.
Funny how the overwhelming support for no lynch is now sitting quietly not knowing what to do.

[BuJaber]

He's more focused on mislynching town (me) and saving his scum buddy (Applejack) today, Brass.

I'll wait for scum reading to catch up before saying more.

Are you really this upset that your gambit didn't work on ONE person?

Didn't know you cared this much about me

[BuJaber]

Ah.. okay I forgot all about that. I thought no lynch debate took the entirety of day 2. There's something else too.. but it doesn't matter.
He doesn't make sense as mafia. And the point I was trying to make was that with mafia having 3 members that's a significant voting power. Let's say 2/3 want to be on the wagon of someone they suspect is scum. In general towns tend to split when it comes to lurkers, so say they get like 3 votes to hammer mcqueen.

Fact that a significant number of votes did land on mcqueen means the opposite of the point I was making is true. If he were mafia there would have been at least some resemblance of protest on the wagon.

I think now that seer is exposed wolves won't be forced to shoot mafia because they have a guranteed shot on seer. They can force town to lynch mafia next day. So only way to protect the hydra now is to lynch wolf.

You understand now why I was saying we need to hit mafia when seer was still unknown?

[BuJaber]

VOTE: unvote

So far auro, brass, me, and scum reading don't CC the hydra.

[BuJaber]

If we lynch town we lose.
If we lynch bambi, hydra gets killed, 3-2-2 tomorrow, with 1 confirmed not wolf. Wolves would have incentive to lynch town or mafia. Mafia will want to lynch wolves only.
If we lynch wolf, bambi gets shot, 4-2-1 tomorrow, with hydra alive

[BuJaber]

And in my defense this only became the correct math because seer is now unknown AND bambi is definitely not wolf.

[BuJaber]

And honestly I wouldn't have checked bambi if I were seer. I would have just advocated for their lynch assuming they were lying and used my power on someone else.

[BuJaber]

Auro all I can say is fine with me
But what do you think of egix independently from S-R?

[BuJaber]

I don't see A50 as WW though, not when he pushed no lynch.. if you're town he's mafia

[BuJaber]

Look how much power we have over the NK right now, never would have happened if we didn't no lynch. That move benefited mafia. It's just we got lucky the seer checked bambi and also happened to be the person everyone was gonna mislynch

[BuJaber]

Funny how the overwhelming support for no lynch is now sitting quietly not knowing what to do.

That is because the whole damn point was relying on WWs being smart and going for the obvious correct play which was to shoot MAFIA. They decided to take a chance and try to shoot the Seer, and it backfired on them AND on us.

Despite this you and others still wanted to rely on the wolves' reads to shoot mafia tonight which before the seer claim was a very risky move.

Though for the record I still don't agree. No lynch left the ratios as is, with town still a dangerous size and the seer still alive. The fact you're surprised they went for the seer is shocking.

I don't see A50 as WW though, not when he pushed no lynch.. if you're town he's mafia

Observe when he strongly pushed a No Lynch - when I launched an attack on McQueen, and it rapidly grew to 4 votes.

You don't think scum!A50 would think "Pushing a No-Lynch is easier than trying to form another wagon"?

I guess that makes sense IF you assume S-R is his partner and that A50 wouldn't bus.

I don't know exactly how he differentiates his play between his AP account and his main, but he's encouraged his teammates to bus him on day 1 at least once. If he were partnered with a lurker he'd bus him. Regardless of his alignment I'm quite certain he's telling the truth about that.

[BuJaber]

@S-R: Two people posted any real no lynch 'statistics', and both of them based it on false assumptions leading to the wrong conclusion.

No lynch served mafia. Mafia are the ones that benefit from lack of information and for keeping seer alive. Town only benefit from keeping seer alive. And WWs benefit from neither.

I find it rather amusing that you come in here trying to make that whole thing look so townie and that your are so pro-no lynch when you weren't even here and then use the same thing to lynch within the no voters.

[BuJaber]

SR, you were wolf, right?

RN I'm not sure which one of BuJ/A50 could be partners; I think bussing is strongly detrimental so I'm again not fully sure of A50.

You should be pushing A50 as mafia.

Do you still think he was right about the no lynch?
You seemed unsure at twilight d2 and I thought you realized you made a mistake. Were you faking?
Because if you are town he should be outed mafia right now

[BuJaber]

Brass is town. I can't imagine if he were partners with Bambi he would do the whole thing he did when he was telling us to vote him because he's sick of this game.

He could have chosen one of two much easier and safer alternatives:
- Ignore the whole thing like a bunch of lurkers did.
- Distance Bambi by directing his 'anger' at him.

[BuJaber]

Do you still think he was right about the no lynch?
You seemed unsure at twilight d2 and I thought you realized you made a mistake. Were you faking?
Because if you are town he should be outed mafia right now

People can be wrong about their logic sometimes is what I think. I've provided an argument as to why A50 would fight for a No Lynch when the pressure was on his wolf buddy McQueen - that's plausible, no?

I agree it is, but knowing A50 it is equally plausible he would bus him and try to win it solo. He's not easy to lynch. He usually gets NK'd instead. In normal games if he's alive in later days it'd be suspicious but this is multiball. Therefore him specifically pointing this out would spew S-R town if A50 is wolf here.

The seer check is a risk regardless of bussing or not bussing so it's irrelevant to his decision.

[BuJaber]

I guess we can discuss this further.. maybe since a majority did believe no lynch is good then it makes sense for wolf!A50 to try to get towncred that way instead of by bussing, but it's hard for me to see that no lynch as beneficial to town when mafia have 3 living members.

[BuJaber]

?? Why is the thread still open??
Also this dialogue between scum reading and Auro looks forced. I wouldn't e surprised if it turns out they were both of the same faction.

Lol

?? Why is the thread still open??
Also this dialogue between scum reading and Auro looks forced. I wouldn't e surprised if it turns out they were both of the same faction.

Because Gamma is busy I would guess.

Lol

Was he even hammered or did you guys lose count.

Still not Mafia btw.

Lol

Okay so A50 is definitely not the same faction as scum-reading. Blatant attempt to sink Auro with this lynch.

Egix comment conveniently ignores the main issue with the post and answers the rhetorical question.

And Bambi's insistence that she's not mafia is amusing considering she blamed the hydra for checking him.
I find it hard to believe that she actually thought a claim like that would A) be accepted as something not coming from scum and B) that a seer would not check her.

The seer obviously did check her. And I have expressed that I never would have checked because I would instantly assume she were scum. Yet because neither of us believe her she shaded both.

[BuJaber]

Okay so A50 is definitely not the same faction as scum-reading

Definitely not? If SR is wolf this tends to point towards A50 trying to frame me as a partner, no?

I thought you said bussing is very detrimental to scum.

But to answer your question yes, but that doesn't make him partners with S-R. It is clear that he thinks he can implicate you and there's no reason to make it 50-50 with you if he were actually his partner. Because even if he did lynch you it would guarantee his lynch afterwards.

[BuJaber]

But to answer your question yes, but that doesn't make him partners with S-R. It is clear that he thinks he can implicate you and there's no reason to make it 50-50 with you if he were actually his partner. Because even if he did lynch you it would guarantee his lynch afterwards.

Bussing is detrimental except if it's the only option, is what I said. There's a difference between lol bussing D2 when town's fine with a no Lynch, and bussing when your partner's nearly definitely going to be lynched. Anyway, that's not what makes him partners alone, there's other stronger evidence.

And no, my lynch doesn't make him WW - you're still a partner candidate.

Pretty sure he was the first to say no lynch. He had no way of knowing that would actually work. I don't think it would have been a lolbus at that time. A lot of people would have given up on saving their buddy at that point.

And you're missing the point. You're the one specifically arguing for his lynch as the suspected partner of SR. Yes you have me and others as a choice but he seems determined to make you the fall guy. Now why would he do that if you are right about him and SR? Wouldn't that just implicate him if not tomorrow then the next day?

[BuJaber]

Brass it's obvious mafia has had control of the game since day 2 no lynch debacle.

[BuJaber]

Now we got real lucky the hydra was seer and he practically confirmed the bambi as mafia, so now with another result from the seer we will be able to win this assuming Wolves don't suicide and kill the seer out of spite.

[BuJaber]

Because, 3-1-1 means that, even if the Mafia does not hit WW with the lynch tomorrow, the WW then hits 2-1 the next day with 2 votes to lynch.

3-1-1 is auto win for Mafia.

Pretty sure your 3 and Auro's 3 refer to different factions

[BuJaber]

Egix, Auro and either A50 or Buj is my best guess

Brass, you get my town read token. It’s you and hydra as town. I doubt that mafia claim is townie. I’ll talk with you since you aren’t the one trying to prepare town for a lynch on A50 tomorrow, even though I claimed town, so Auro’s gamesolving is awful rn

Thought you said brass was scum

[BuJaber]

Yes if SR is wolf, wolves have to lynch mafia and risk the guilty, it's safer than the alternative.

But what makes you so sure he's not mafia?

[BuJaber]

Ehh I don't know about that.

Town shouldn't quickhammer in any game.
Mafia wouldn't hammer their partner unless they had to.
Wolf quickhammering would look really bad.

Say you were the seer, mcqueen got quicklynched and flipped mafia. Wouldn't you investigate the hammerer for a chance to catch a wolf or practically a confirm a townie?

[BuJaber]

Of course I'd investigate the hammerer if a quickhammer happened; what are you implying here?

That the quickwagon tells us nothing about his alignment.
It was never a real push

[BuJaber]

Auro is not town. Even if he incorrectly disagrees with the math of the Wolves kill mafia tonight, town would help sell an incorrect theory.

Don't bother engaging. He's mafia

It might not help but it doesn't hurt to engage either.

[BuJaber]

And them to seem active. I already said I’m town. Are you two looking to keep your post count up, or what?

The day ended way too early. This is time owed. And we can't trust you until you flip. But even if you're town it's stupid not to take advantage of this time.

[BuJaber]

That the quickwagon tells us nothing about his alignment.
It was never a real push

Who, on the wagon, would've predicted it was going to be detailed by A50 advancing a No-Lynch? At the point of time of it happening it seemed likely that it'd go through, add in the fact that McQueen was absent

Maybe your experience is different than mine but I don't remember a lot of wagons that build up and got hammered really quickly. In my experience it's rare except in late-game scenarios.

Someone always ends up pulling on the breaks or scum are afraid of hammering or town second guess themselves and unvote, or scum unvote for towncred.

[BuJaber]

Aaahh.. well played roster.. but I knew it.. I knew no lynch had to be led by mafia.

There's another mafia among the no lynchers though. I'm town, the hydra is town, and brass I believe is town. There's not enough townies in the game for roster to be the only mafia vote on the no lynch. Plus at least 1 wolf

[BuJaber]

Bambi you claim you're town right? If you are who would believe you in this playerlist? That's who the wolves are

[BuJaber]

Is there anyone who doesn't believe Brass is locktown by now?

Not unless you can somehow obvtown.

[BuJaber]

Considering how you switched your views and feigned confusion about the d2 no lynch thing, I doubt you can convince me that brass is the scum here not you.

[BuJaber]

Yeah I don't think I've seen scum!brass before. Just would piss me off if he ended up winning when he ignored like 6 pages of the game just because it was before the official day start.

Everything A50 has done was to distance himself from mafia.
Pretty sure mafia are A50 and Bambi.
And then WWs are you and Egix.

You being so adamant in your brass read makes sense from a confident stand point, all I wanted to check. Mafia would have left themselves room to wiggle there, because mafia are the underdogs here because bambi is outed and the last mafia can easily be shot.

[BuJaber]

This was to Auro before brass ruined the flow

[BuJaber]

Are you seriously trying to suggest that a werewolf crumbed his kill target?

[BuJaber]

It makes sense for A50 being mafia and distancing from his buddies context.

[BuJaber]

It makes sense for A50 being mafia and distancing from his buddies context.

It's quite useless for him to say it, unless he was expecting to be caught, which I doubt was the case.

Umm.. if any of them get lynched or get killed by the wolves, the other two would be safer.

[BuJaber]

Aaahh.. well played roster.. but I knew it.. I knew no lynch had to be led by mafia.

There's another mafia among the no lynchers though. I'm town, the hydra is town, and brass I believe is town. There's not enough townies in the game for roster to be the only mafia vote on the no lynch. Plus at least 1 wolf

First line of this post bugs me greatly. To me it just reads as "a-ha, you were very towny but you had to die. Sorry for killing you."

Also, "Plus at least 1 wolf"... was there meant to be more after that, or did you just leave out the full stop?

Bambi you claim you're town right? If you are who would believe you in this playerlist? That's who the wolves are

^ I see this... and then you say...

-snip-

You being so adamant in your brass read makes sense from a confident stand point, all I wanted to check. Mafia would have left themselves room to wiggle there, because mafia are the underdogs here because

bambi is outed

and the last mafia can easily be shot.

If you're so sure that Bambi is outed mafia, why did you ask her that question? You don't seem to be genuinely convinced that she is maf.

That's not a contradiction you idiot. Bambi is gonna represent that he is town. I'm asking him a meta question about who in this playerlist is likely to believe him. His answer to that is helpful even if he lies.

Town loses

[BuJaber]

And the plus 1 wolf is the end of the sentence. As in "mafia pushed for no lynch, plus at least 1 wolf"

[BuJaber]

Y'all need some lessons in multiball. Trying to manipulate scum into doing what town wants never ends well. You have to make them lynch each other by looking at associatives between the two mafia groups.

[BuJaber]

Good luck hydra

[BuJaber]

I'm wolf.

Town doesn't deserve this and sadly won't even win it.

Well played mafia

[BuJaber]

And as much as I hate to.. I don't want to ruin the objectivity of the game by giving town a hint

[BuJaber]

Minus my night kills I was the towniest player in the game, I guarantee you this 100%

[BuJaber]

Jungle republic works because there is a delicate balance of helping an opposing faction at different times.

This game the balance got destroyed because no lynch gave all the power to mafia.

[BuJaber]

I told A50 in the WW PT he helped mafia and he still didn't believe me. He was sure it was a good move for some reason and he never explained it.

That dayphase was bs. Y'all should always listen to me. Even as scum. I never lie about the mechanical stuff.

No lynch with 3 mafia alive and bambi claiming mafia. Wtf.

Also bambi you can take this gambit back to whatever planet you came from and tell the people there that it doesn't work.
A50 and I were 100% shooting you as our next mafia. Nobody believed for a second you were town.

I thought egix + brass were the town.
Auro had him pegged because like A50/Auro always contains 1 mafia and A50 was obviously my WW partner.

So well played A50 for being the 4th mafia player. Sorry buddy. I still had fun playing scum with you for the first time.

And brass of course he was going to shoot the seer.. what is he just going to try to beg you to let him win?
The correct play here was lynching auro and then holstering like tw suggested.
And that's only because we were put in this shitty situation by the no lynch.

I admire roster's attempt to prove it was beneficial to town. That was cute though

[BuJaber]

Fuck though.. you guys gave me false hope with the draw votes. I couldn't believe that mafia were actually giving away their win.

[BuJaber]

It was the way you did it.
I dunno.
Everyone else felt like theh genuinenly believed it.
You were buddying up to everybody and worse, went from standing alongside me to being 'convinced' by A50 and roster's absolute horrible math.

I'm not great at math myself but damn I know when people either ignore variables completely or make false assumptions. I didn't believe someone who was making a lot of sense earlier (you), would believe them unless you had a selfish reason

[BuJaber]

And that's only because we were put in this shitty situation by the no lynch.

Why did you NK RosterFoster over the seer, again?

My reasoning for your Roster NK was that you'd be unaffected by a guilty coming into the day, since town would want to lynch Mafia anyway to avoid losing, and hence you could take the opportunity to thin down Mafia (as a trade). Was I correct?

1. We weren't too worried about the hydra checking us at the time.
2. We were worried that mafia would win. 3 votes is insane power, especially if seer got a guilty on one of us.
3. Ego. I wanted to prove I was right about that read because I was least confident about it.