Mini Normal 2052: Mixtape Mafia [Game Over]


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Post Post #9 (isolation #0) » Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:20 am

Post by Jenga »

My magic will tear you apart

VOTE: Clemency
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Post Post #68 (isolation #1) » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:46 am

Post by Jenga »

In post 30, EGL wrote:
In post 27, ofrhz wrote:
In post 26, EGL wrote:@board is there any chance of a scum being neighbors with a townie or no?
Yes, they can be S+T, but they can also be T+T. I don't think they can be S+S though, or at least, I've never seen a hood with only scum in singleball.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Neighbor
I mean yeah that sounds like it would be just a normal scum team. Scum + scum neighborhood I mean.
The difference would be that the flip would show "Mafia Neighbor." Having two Mafia Neighbors would be unusual but I don't believe it's prohibited, and if there was a mafia+mafia neighborhood they probably would want to claim it early particularly for that set of reasoning to set in. Still, would be pretty unusual, the sort of thing a mod would do just to mess with consensus beliefs that there's never an all scum neighborhood.
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Post Post #69 (isolation #2) » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:52 am

Post by Jenga »

In post 49, singletonking wrote:Why do you think Munch was overdefensive?
Munch recognized that proving there was a PT was a reasonable request pretty quickly after it was explained, but his initial reaction was "why are you asking me to break the rules" -- he was certainly being defensive in his first posts on the subject of proving the PT, whether he was being "overdefensive" seems more a matter of interpretation
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Post Post #70 (isolation #3) » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:56 am

Post by Jenga »

In post 51, Vorkuta wrote:But here's my reasoning- if when they can verify, I'm more than willing to take a leap of faith and assume that this isn't S&S because a 1st page neighborhood claim and over-committing to such a bluff this early on just isn't a scum winning strategy in my eyes, as so many things can go wrong in a closed setup like this.
this would be a good point but it assumes the scum team anticipated all the ways this plan could go wrong. That being said, S/S hoods are still very rare, although I guess my concern is the rarity of a S/S hood is precisely why a mod might put one in.
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Post Post #71 (isolation #4) » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:59 am

Post by Jenga »

casts frostbolt


VOTE: singletonking

dislike wking munch and then bandwagoning onto pvturist
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Post Post #105 (isolation #5) » Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:12 pm

Post by Jenga »

singletonking what do you think of trekkie's 99?
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Post Post #151 (isolation #6) » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:39 pm

Post by Jenga »

In post 107, Munchmellow wrote:You are implying I wasn't actually surprised, so I was lying about it. But being surprised doesn't have to do much with being town/scum but whether I knew about it or not. So if I wasn't actually surprised, I would have to know about it, so that would mean me and Overkill discussed it and are now both lying about it. What good would that do?
I think I'd need to cast Frost Nova to fully parse this but I want to say Munch might be town here just based on frame of mind and trying to understand the logic of the push
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Post Post #152 (isolation #7) » Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:03 pm

Post by Jenga »

In post 117, singletonking wrote:I also disagree with Trekkie's 99 being scummy, despite disagreeing with the post. I often see new townies suggest weird mechanical stuff on the setup and end up getting lynched for it, and I think it is equally likely from town!Trekkie and scum!Trekkie.

@Jenga that answers 105. Incidentally, what's your opinion on that post?
I'm not quite sure I would say that I agree that it's NAI just because town often get hung up on weird mechanical stuff; I do feel like it was an anti-town mentality to prioritize neighborhood mechanics over pure reads and I don't think we should simply write those things off. That being said I do think town can very easily fall into neighborhood wifom traps.
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Post Post #153 (isolation #8) » Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:05 pm

Post by Jenga »

In post 128, Clemency wrote:but more because gamma's the only person here that i can even townlean on
I'm not really sure I buy this as town frustration on page 6
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Post Post #154 (isolation #9) » Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:05 pm

Post by Jenga »

VOTE: Clemency
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Post Post #199 (isolation #10) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:04 pm

Post by Jenga »

In post 156, Gamma Emerald wrote:Meh he’s done it before
Not this quickly though, tbh
Yeah that's my concern, he seems more interested in wifom than in sorting, and the AtE seems to be coming from practically nothing
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Post Post #200 (isolation #11) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:06 pm

Post by Jenga »

In post 193, singletonking wrote:Why do you say this only now, considering you said "Gamma's my only townlean" earlier?
Why don't you follow this question up with a vote?
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Post Post #249 (isolation #12) » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:22 pm

Post by Jenga »

In post 242, Vorkuta wrote:VOTE: Springtrap for at the very "best" being the most apathetic and townie (with Clemency being a close second which is why I parked my vote on him previously)
I mean you say that but I don't really understand why you would just "park" your vote. I kinda dislike that there are a few people (you and Singleton iirc) that seem to find Clemency scummy but aren't really pushing his wagon. I don't think you're all of the scum team but right now I don't see why either of you couldn't just be doing a light scumread on Clem without really getting a real wagon on him and instead pushing other wagons when they come up.
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Post Post #286 (isolation #13) » Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:57 am

Post by Jenga »

Clem self-voting, unvoting, and I believe spending the rest of the day so far on no one.
vs.
Springtrap vote-parking on Trekkie and then doing nothing else.
vs.
ofhrz voted Trekkie in RVS, pushed Munch (who is seeming more town as the game goes on), and then N_M (replacing ofhrz) pops in and L-2s Spring.

Out of the three, I'd say Clem still looks the worst to me, but this pool of players is why it's hard to feel like I can fully solve. I want to see Clem noosed, and ideally a vig would decide between N_M and Springtrap tonight. Feel like Clem keeps getting little counter-pushes to his wagon.
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Post Post #370 (isolation #14) » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:41 pm

Post by Jenga »

In post 367, 0verki11 wrote:Not_Mafia is always like this, it does make them unreadable so the best solution is to cop them
PLs are anti town as fuck and im not taking part in that shit.
OK but are you dead set on Trekkie when we have three slots basically providing no content and we have like 15 hours on the clock?
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Post Post #455 (isolation #15) » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:17 pm

Post by Jenga »

VOTE: Not_Mafia
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Post Post #498 (isolation #16) » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:00 am

Post by Jenga »

In post 494, texcat wrote:And looking at your Jenga quote, it is strange that he didn't mention Overkill vote parking on Trekkie, isn't it?
0verkill made a strong first impression with the neighborhood claim, and he vote parked on Trekkie in response to the wifom about the neighborhood that generated. I actually can understand where 0verkill was coming from with his vote a lot easier than I can for other slots.
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Post Post #499 (isolation #17) » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:04 am

Post by Jenga »

In post 492, Vorkuta wrote:I mean my in gamephilosophy is that scum plays to win.
Because none of you would actually replh to me regarding NM's play, I can only assume that he'd play better if he's scum.
have you read any of his other games?
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Post Post #509 (isolation #18) » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:50 pm

Post by Jenga »

OK talk to me about EGL then Pvt, what's your reasoning there?
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Post Post #540 (isolation #19) » Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:06 am

Post by Jenga »

Not sure what to do with EGL's "response" to that masonry claim... but ok

Neighborhood (0verkill + Munch)
Neighborizer (Clem)
Masons (Pvt and N_M)
PT Cop (Spring)

That is six non-vanilla in a 13p game. Now the issue is that a lot of this is negative utility; the neighborizor works against the PT Cop, and the PT cop gives almost no hard guilties. So what we're looking at is a mason pair, a weak investigative, and some named townies.

That being said, six non-vanilla is still pretty odd. In scum possibilities, we have:
0verkill as scum neighbor -- I find his choice to hardclaim at the start of the game surprising, but this isn't impossible or even necessarily unlikely
Pvt and N_M as scum faking masonry -- bold move but I believe it has been done before in the last year. Still, with this many flips, they can't very easily pretend that they stayed alive because of a protective role. Still, given the game state, I feel like this is unlikely.
Springtrap as scum PT cop -- Possible. Need to think through the reasoning on his claim today.
Pvt as scum pocketing N_M as town with mason claim -- on that thought

UNVOTE: for the moment. Lynching within claims vs. lynching outside of claims is a pretty significant strategic choice right now. The lowest risk lynch inside the claims, if we are wrong, is 0verkill. Scum are likely to nightkill inside {Pvt, N_M, Springtrap} and so lynching outside of those three might be more efficient tomorrow.

Wish the ofhrz/N_M slot was a bit more coherent. Do we actually need N_M to confirm the masonry, given I see no crumbs from that side?

My tinfoil concern there would be that, if N_M is town, and Pvt is scum, Pvt could claim masonry with N_M to pocket N_M, and if N_M was under pressure he would accept. So I'd like N_M to confirm that he really is in a masonry, understanding that if he says no I would not want to lynch him right now.

Maybe that's too tinfoily, but there's a lot of claims here, and the one that could include a town fakeclaiming a role would be N_M if he accepted the masonry claim so I'd like to eliminate the possibility of a town fakeclaiming while being pocketed.
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Post Post #568 (isolation #20) » Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:00 am

Post by Jenga »

In post 563, texcat wrote:The only reason I see NOT to claim now is that we might have a protective role of some sort. If it's a doc, I don't want to out them; I want them protecting our PT cop.
There's two scenarios here. Either Springtrap is scum, or scum have some implication that there is a protective role. This could be a hard confirmation (a goon informed that there is a doctor/jailkeeper in the game), or an implication, like a one-shot Macho goon that heavily implies an investigative + protective combination so the setup doesn't become follow the cop. Now, Springtrap being scum remains a possibility, although I think our ability to assess that tomorrow is likely to be much stronger than today.
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Post Post #569 (isolation #21) » Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:03 am

Post by Jenga »

0verkill, was there anything in your neighborhood last night? What did you two talk about (if anything)?

I know you said you didn't plan to use it much, but did Munch try to use it, or anything change after she repped in?
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Post Post #577 (isolation #22) » Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:19 am

Post by Jenga »

In post 574, singletonking wrote:I'm coming around to scumread Overkill because I don't like their posts today
In post 575, singletonking wrote:Since this game's stalled, I'll get things moving:

VOTE: Trekkie99
you just said you scumread 0verkill, why are you then voting Trekkie?

I think it's really weird that 0verkill says there was no talk at night after the flip and no talk when Munch replaced in. It's partly plausible since 0verkill is so quiet entirely, but I don't think I like that slot regardless.

VOTE: 0verkill
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Post Post #623 (isolation #23) » Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:30 am

Post by Jenga »

You think they were informed of the PT cop somehow? Because I don't think they decided to just randomly claim mason today, they definitely had something going on early in d1
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Post Post #648 (isolation #24) » Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:41 pm

Post by Jenga »

I looked at one of 0verkill's scum games from the newbie queue, and there he looked very disorganized and passive. I'm not sure that his reads list today is entirely outside of his scum range, but for now I'm fine with a UNVOTE:

I should have time to meta dive Trekkie either late tonight or tomorrow morning.
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Post Post #661 (isolation #25) » Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:41 pm

Post by Jenga »

Trekkie Scum Game: viewtopic.php?t=77801&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Trekkie Scum PT: viewtopic.php?t=77811&f=94&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Another Mafia Game: viewtopic.php?t=78097&f=2&st=0&sk=t&sd= ... er_sort=Go

Town Trekkie: viewtopic.php?t=78198&f=23&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Town Trekkie: viewtopic.php?t=78360&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

So... this is not all that helpful actually. Town Trekkie can be quiet and fluffy, or he can be very chatty. Scum trekkie can be organized and logical and a bit quiet, or he can be lurky and quiet. So he doesn't have a very consistent meta as either alignment.

There are a few things here that slightly point toward town Trekkie, in that he is *very slightly* more talkative here than he is in his scum games. But his reads list early on looks a little bit more like his scum game to be honest.

I think overall I'm slightly leaning scum here, but I think I need to review some other slots.
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Post Post #662 (isolation #26) » Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:54 pm

Post by Jenga »

Spoiler:
In post 552, Delta Diamond wrote:good idea i am vannila townie
In post 560, Delta Diamond wrote:
In post 558, Springtrap wrote:Where's Alpha Sapphire and Omega Ruby?
is that from bible?
In post 579, Delta Diamond wrote:VOTE: Overkill

have u been doing bad things
In post 580, Delta Diamond wrote:actually no

VOTE: springtrap
In post 582, Delta Diamond wrote:masons+PT cop is a lot, munch mentioned killing him today if he was alive and is dead, and his whole play has revolved around setup spec and his claim with little actual effort towards sorting, like you would expect from someone with an investigative role
In post 567, Springtrap wrote:Clem did call out my urge and habit of fake claiming. Perhaps scum took that to heart and assumed I was just a VT?

Well I (Springtrap) don't value a fake claim. I promise you that I'm a PT Cop.

Let's look at all the claims currently said and take notes.
last line feels especially bad, like okay ever1 do work but no work is done himself

trekkie scumread seems to have disappeared so i think it might be distancing

pretty sure ST is scum PT cop
In post 606, Delta Diamond wrote:VOTE: Trekkie

wat ever happened to this
In post 611, Delta Diamond wrote:Can there be two PT cops?


Delta Diamond is probably a new player, or maybe an alt. Either way this game is it for him.

Now the first thing to think through here is EGL, given that was the predecessor. EGL I had a hard time reading because, on the one hand, this is a relatively quiet game, and he was on the more active side. But he was also moving his vote quite frequently without ever really committing a lot of push or reasoning to any one vote in particular. Then, when he did actually push into NM/PvT and they claim mason, he... instantly repped out. So, OK, don't like that.

Now there are several things to consider with DD:
>The hard claim of VT under very little pressure
>Abrupt shifts between hard analysis and underexplained pushes
>Weird "can there be two PT cops" question which really bothers me

This slot looks pretty bad to me now that I look at it closer, honestly.
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Post Post #663 (isolation #27) » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:13 pm

Post by Jenga »

Unfortunately I am not finding a useful scum game for singletonking:
Here's one town game: viewtopic.php?t=77433&f=84&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

and here's another: viewtopic.php?t=78139&f=83&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

And I want to say there are certain things that strike me as pretty consistent with the town games. Namely, the structure of thought, the frequency of moving off and on wagons, and the presentation of reads lists. STK seems to move off and on wagons a lot more frequently than many players do, but this seems to lead in to him generating read lists that do seem to push toward a solve.

Now an issue here is that I don't have a scum game to compare to where I can say, "okay, but this is what we should look for", but STK looks town to me so far.
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Post Post #664 (isolation #28) » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:24 pm

Post by Jenga »

texcat scum game: viewtopic.php?t=76567&f=55&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

scum pt for that game: viewtopic.php?t=76568&f=94&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

another scum game: viewtopic.php?t=75613&f=55&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

scum pt for that game: viewtopic.php?f=94&t=75614

town texcat: viewtopic.php?t=76139&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

town texcat: viewtopic.php?t=76303&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

town texcat: viewtopic.php?t=77101&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Now, there is a lot to work with in regard to texcat. I think I come down leaning town here, although I wish I could say with confidence this is outside of texcat's scumrange for some reason. If texcat were scum, there are a few things that might be scum-indicative; the L-1 vote and the hammer vote both come to mind here. Scum texcat can certainly be aggressive toward the end of a wagon.

However, there are other patterns I notice that push me toward town here. Town texcat doesn't seem as focused on pushing an agenda. Scum texcat looks a bit more organized, a bit quieter, and a bit more focused on where she goes with her votes.

Still, this is one of texcat's quieter games, and she isn't super talkative here, which I think would be strongly town indicative for her. But I think texcat is more likely town than scum given what I'm seeing.
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Post Post #665 (isolation #29) » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:34 pm

Post by Jenga »

Town Vorkuta: viewtopic.php?t=77801&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Town Vorkuta: viewtopic.php?t=77949&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Town Vorkuta: viewtopic.php?t=77567&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Town Vorkuta: viewtopic.php?t=78012&f=2&st=0&sk=t&sd= ... er_sort=Go

Another case of "no scum games to look at". Here I was going into the other games already feeling like Vorkuta was probably town and thinking through whether there was a chance I was wrong.

For me here, the main question is: does this largely mirror the thought processes vorkuta has had in previous games as town? And the answer there is yes, but not always. In some of the games, Vorkuta never really quite becomes as organized in sorting as he does in this game. However, the first game I linked, Newbie 1901, very closely matches his thought process over time--namely, of starting out looking for leads, and the naturally moving toward more organized and structured thoughts, and pushing toward a solve.

I was thinking Vorkuta might be town, but I feel so more strongly now.
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Post Post #666 (isolation #30) » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:40 pm

Post by Jenga »

Right now, it's looking like there is not that much interest in Delta Diamond. I think {Delta Diamond, Trekkie} are both good places to push. I think right now, Delta Diamond would be the better wagon than Trekkie, personally. Mostly for me though this comes down to one thing: how would you feel about a mason claim as town? For me, I think a mason claim would be relieving, if you could believe it. I don't want to accuse EGL of a tactical replace out, and that is not exactly my line of reasoning here. Rather, I think that if EGL is town, he would have chosen to stay, because finding out one of his top scumreads was a mason claim would have been interesting and exciting. I know it is bad form to put too much of a read on the nature of a replace out, but I am not reading Delta Diamond as town anyway at this point.

Casts fireball


VOTE: Delta Diamond
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Post Post #668 (isolation #31) » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:05 pm

Post by Jenga »

What?
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Post Post #692 (isolation #32) » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:24 pm

Post by Jenga »

Delta -- if Spring is scum, then where is the town power? Or do you think this is a weird mountainous and town has no power other than masons?

Spring -- why did you check Singletonking? Explain your reasoning there.
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Post Post #696 (isolation #33) » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:17 pm

Post by Jenga »

I don't understand why you're limiting to just those people. You have literally never said "texcat" or "Vorkuta" in your iso as far as I can tell. Why are you excluding them from your reasoning?
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Post Post #704 (isolation #34) » Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:41 pm

Post by Jenga »

In post 690, Delta Diamond wrote:maf would kill the person capable of getting more innos
The problem here is that this would be much more true tomorrow.

If Springtrap is town, and he is the last of the town power, the likelihood of a scum win is actually quite high if scum push through a mislynch on him today.

Green springtrap lynch --> nightkill on one of the three quasi-masons leaves us in non-stop lylo through game end.

At first you might think, "well we'd have two masons, that doesn't sound so bad"

but actually it is. We are likely to get to five way, given that we would have a 60% chance of hitting scum in the 3/5 non-investigated players.

However, things start looking rough on day 5 when we would be down to 1 innocent child, 2 scum, and 2 unknown towns. That's actually 50% scum win right there.

THEN, 3-way looks gross with 1 scum and two towns and no innocent children left. I think scum wins these scenarios somewhat more than 50% of the time.

If Delta Diamond is scum and scum have a rolecop/neapolitan/whatever, then they would know that the town power structure is already revealed, at which point the Springtrap mislynch is possible and likely gamewinning for scum.
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Post Post #705 (isolation #35) » Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:42 pm

Post by Jenga »

I also played with a scenario where DD/ST is S/S but that scenario also involves DD being scum, which matches my read anyway

VOTE: DD
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Post Post #707 (isolation #36) » Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:54 pm

Post by Jenga »

Do you disagree with my reasoning?
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Post Post #719 (isolation #37) » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:46 pm

Post by Jenga »

VT.

I guess texcat is next
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Post Post #720 (isolation #38) » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:47 pm

Post by Jenga »

In post 718, PvtUrist wrote:
In post 717, 0verki11 wrote:im confused on why the hell springtrap is still alive and that makes me worried.
is why springtrap is alive
so basically you agree with my reasoning but scumread me for something else--why?
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Post Post #723 (isolation #39) » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:55 pm

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In post 717, 0verki11 wrote:im bad ignore that for the most part, I swear there were less people alive. Anyway im confused on why the hell springtrap is still alive and that makes me worried.
Basically I look at DD coming in today wanting a hard 1v1 with Springtrap. Springtrap hasn't really put a lot of work into looking townie, and of the three claimed tprs, he is the only one that actually could be mislynched (if he is town).

A. If Springtrap is not a real PT cop, I don't know where the rest of the real town power is
B. DD's predecessor repped out under possibly the scummiest circumstances given he just PM'd the mod basically as soon as the masons he was pushing claimed
C. DD is pushing Springtrap today without even really waiting for Springtrap to out results or understand it

I guess he is arguing I am just "paranoid town" but between A and B on their own I really want to favor Springtrap here.

Basically, in my understanding, scum want a good mislynch today.

If Springtrap guiltied one of them, they probably would try to 1v1 him. I actually thought this was the reason DD might have pushed Springtrap at first--he might have thought Springtrap was going to announce a guilty on him, and wanted to push the investigative first.

I did wonder whether scum might not know the rest of town's power structure. Would they keep Springtrap alive out of fear of their kill being wasted on a doctor? The problem here would be that if this was the case, then they would have killed someone who had not claimed yet, not a mason.

But the question then remains, why would they not kill PT cop over a mason given that. But as Pvt just pointed out, the paranoia about Springtrap makes him the most likely mislynch today, if he is town. And whereas an additional clear would be bad, scum's actual winrate--if Springtrap is real town power here--is actually quite high.
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Post Post #726 (isolation #40) » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:55 pm

Post by Jenga »

So I'm PoE for you?
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Post Post #728 (isolation #41) » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:10 pm

Post by Jenga »

Yeah but I didn't see basically any frustration from him before that, and tbh I was thinking the massclaim was useless since if anyone else had a claim to make they would have made it by now, I don't see why we're letting the game stall just so we can hear that everyone claims VT

I mean, maybe it's a playstyle thing. I just thought you coming in and announcing a 1v1 with the cop seemed like something scum would do here. Usually when there is a flip I feel like I want to process the information and reassess but it seemed like you were already ready to go.
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Post Post #729 (isolation #42) » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:12 pm

Post by Jenga »

Like, you start the day as "1v1 me let's go rn!"

and now you're like

"whoa whoa whoa, slow down and finish the mass claim"

It seems like you felt like town had enough information to make an informed decision at the start of the day and now, you're not exactly backpedaling, but you are really changing tones
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Post Post #733 (isolation #43) » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:22 pm

Post by Jenga »

In post 690, Delta Diamond wrote:maf would kill the person capable of getting more innos
Your entire push is based on setup spec
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Post Post #734 (isolation #44) » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:24 pm

Post by Jenga »

In post 690, Delta Diamond wrote:maf would kill the person capable of getting more innos

not masons
In post 730, Delta Diamond wrote:im saying yikes wait for the mass claim if you're worried about town power

im really not
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Post Post #738 (isolation #45) » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:59 pm

Post by Jenga »

alright whatever

let's finish mass claim

I know anger is supposed to be easy to fake but your thought process here is making me kinda second guess myself

I've read Springtrap's iso and it's the exact type of shitty iso that I would be pushing to lynch if I was scum

but maybe it's more likely scum is just sitting in the nosebleeds hoping town lynches him all on their own

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #757 (isolation #46) » Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:13 am

Post by Jenga »

Pvt you don't think we have 3 scum????
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Post Post #759 (isolation #47) » Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:11 am

Post by Jenga »

Ohh are you confused because that part should have said day 6?
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Post Post #760 (isolation #48) » Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:25 am

Post by Jenga »

No my daycount was right at that point, now I'm just confusing myself
In post 704, Jenga wrote:The problem here is that this would be much more true tomorrow.

If Springtrap is town, and he is the last of the town power, the likelihood of a scum win is actually quite high if scum push through a mislynch on him today.

Green springtrap lynch --> nightkill on one of the three quasi-masons leaves us in non-stop lylo through game end.

At first you might think, "well we'd have two masons, that doesn't sound so bad"

but actually it is. We are likely to get to five way, given that we would have a 60% chance of hitting scum in the 3/5 non-investigated players.

However, things start looking rough on day 5 when we would be down to 1 innocent child, 2 scum, and 2 unknown towns. That's actually 50% scum win right there.

THEN, 3-way looks gross with 1 scum and two towns and no innocent children left. I think scum wins these scenarios somewhat more than 50% of the time.

If Delta Diamond is scum and scum have a rolecop/neapolitan/whatever, then they would know that the town power structure is already revealed, at which point the Springtrap mislynch is possible and likely gamewinning for scum.
Let me try to break down what I was thinking here more clearly since I think the way I described it there was maybe confusing

Day 3: 6:3 --> {Mislynch Springtrap, nightkill}
-->
Day 4: 4:3 {2 ics, 2 unknown, 3 scum} --> 60% chance to lynch scum (presume successful lynch is scum because otherwise game is over) [this gamestate is why people tend to think that killing the PT cop would make sense for scum without thinking about the rest of the game]
-->
Day 5: 3:2 {1 ic, 2 unknown, 2 scum} --> 50% chance to lynch scum (presume successful lynch of scum because otherwise game is over but odds are not great here)
-->
Day 6: 2:1 {0 ics, 2 unknown, 1 scum} --> less than 50% chance to lynch scum (statistically likely game loss)

Now that is before Gamma's claim. Gamma was already one of the IC slots, unfortunately, so the only value could be out of the motion detect but even then I don't think it tells us much outside of maybe making us second guess the setup spec again, which I'm just... kinda not ready for rn

That is why I think Springtrap is alive and the reasoning that him being alive means he should be lynched is why I was looking at DD as susp.
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Post Post #808 (isolation #49) » Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:34 pm

Post by Jenga »

I should be able to catch up tomorrow night
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Post Post #818 (isolation #50) » Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:49 pm

Post by Jenga »

so, I started writing this post, detailing why I thought texcat was town and overkill was scum, and then about halfway through I started doing this case vs. case analysis and now I'm kinda second-guessing my read there.

I was started thinking about why I townread overkill, and there:

Overkill has
-- the weird neighborhood claim
--the neighbor dying n1
--a good reads list in 627

so some of these are wifomy and weak reasons, and I guess at some point we will need to have a discussion about that slot. I was going to press you for why you townread that slot in this post, and actually had a fair amount written, but now I'm kinda focused on texcat so I cut that part. I was tring overkill earlier and wasn't really saying I have a lockscum read there but I didn't get why you were scumreading texcat for the push on overkill -- but I'm just going to bracket that off for now

texcat has
--a lot of pushing on overkill, including an aggressive l-1 -- this is something I saw in one of texcat's scum games, but I kinda wasn't scumreading her for it here because it just felt a bit different. I feel like her aggressive end of wagon pushes tend to seem a bit more random as scum whereas here they seemed to develop more from her reads.
--and then a pretty good reads list in 778

and that's where I kinda ran into a snag, because when I tried to say that "texcat doesn't do reads lists like this as scum" I went and reread her scum isos and immediately proved myself wrong 0.o

so the point for comparison there is here:
viewtopic.php?p=10093679#p10093679

that's a scum texcat catchup read list

the reads list here, which my first reaction was to townread her for: viewtopic.php?p=10702012#p10702012

and when I look at the similarities it actually really bugs me. it seems like as scum texcat focuses a lot on wagons, wagon placement, etc. etc.

and then I was like, well maybe texcat just always talks about read lists, but when I went to the towngames I just can't find anything that looks like that
a town texcat reads list looks more like this: viewtopic.php?p=10444042#p10444042

so... idk what to say, but it really seems to me like scum texcat has a tendency to overexplain her reads lists as scum by over-emphasizing wagons rather than focusing on gut or tonal reads which seems to be more of her town MO

this is a pretty small sample size but I kinda feel like this is the path for today.

VOTE: texcat
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Post Post #830 (isolation #51) » Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:10 pm

Post by Jenga »

Springtrap's play seems to me to match a relatively weak tpr player. He basically did nothing, overreacted to rolling town investigative by choosing to do nothing for like two days, and over-relied on night actions. Then, since he claimed and has started actually thinking about how to solve, he has been a lot better.

That being said his iso for the first two days is almost objectively garbage. It is not outside the realm of possibility that he is just scum. But based on the development of his play, the gamestate, and the wifom surrounding his slot, I feel like it is very likely that scum would either a) push hard for his lynch (as you did) or b) wait for town to lynch him on their own. Bottom line, I think he has a latent stench of town to him.

I don't know how I feel about Vorkuta fitting neatly into either one of those, but texcat kind of ignoring the slot and staying tunneled on 0verkill would match b.
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Post Post #852 (isolation #52) » Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:20 pm

Post by Jenga »

In post 840, texcat wrote:
In post 778, texcat wrote:Based on a scum!Overkill, I think the other 2 scum (there are 3, right?) must be Jenga and Vorkuta.
VOTE: texcat
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Post Post #910 (isolation #53) » Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:50 pm

Post by Jenga »

I wanted this yesterday. If DD was town, he would have voted ST by now. This is just scum flailing at this point.

*Casts Pyroblast*

VOTE: Delta Diamond
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Post Post #924 (isolation #54) » Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:44 pm

Post by Jenga »

Yeah I'm outing the alt cause I realized there's not enough good meme gifs to keep it going

But I am Krazy <3 u ofrhz, were you in here somewhere?
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