Newbie 1913 - game over!!

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Post Post #87  (isolation #0)  » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:39 am

Hi all. I just got subbed in and am catching up on the game.

No prior experience on this site but 3 previous games on another site with a slightly different format.

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Post Post #91  (isolation #1)  » Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:21 pm

In post 76, volxen wrote:
In post 47, YellowSnow wrote:I find it unlikely that players would admit to liking to play scum. Being a dangerous scum player would increase the likelyhood of being lynched on that basis alone.


What you are referring to in the bolded portion amounts to a policy lynch, which in general is anti-town unless there is a really, really good reason for doing so.


Misrep. Having an increased chance of being lynched because you're a dangerous scum player (dubious) is not the same as a policy lynch.

Lynching someone solely on the basis that, if they are scum in the current ongoing game they are going to be really dangerous (based on their performance in previous scumgames), even if they haven't been scummy in the current ongoing game, is incredibly anti-town because they would be lynched over fear of how good they are at scum rather than because people are actually scumreading them in the current ongoing game. That's definitely not how Mafia is intended to be played, and over the long term policy lynching someone just because they are good at scum will lead to mislynches more often than not because everyone rolls town much more frequently than they do scum.


Agreed with all the rest though. Just because you enjoy playing scum doesn't even mean that you're good at it and is no indicator of what the randomizer gave you this game. NAI.

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Post Post #92  (isolation #2)  » Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:23 pm

Roo, you're being unusually quiet. Perhaps a little pressure on your wagon will get your tongue wagging.

VOTE: Roo

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Post Post #93  (isolation #3)  » Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:35 pm

In post 90, brassherald wrote:Why I don't like readlists
There's two reasons here. First, they are extremely easy to fake. Take people's names, assemble them into a list that orders them, and provide no real information. I don't find it compelling to just have a list without reasons. Even with reasons, it would not be, to me, immediately clear why Gamma would be scum and ceejay is not as strong of a read.

Second, they just are not very useful to me, personally. My reads are more abstract, in general, ranking them is pretty tough, and I don't even like locking anyone as town ever. That's just how I play the game. Once I put something into a read list like this, I am less likely to question my reads later on. It's just the way I work. I would need the read list in literally every post with updates as things happen to realistically help me with my game, and no one has time for that.


Decent arguments against them, but what about the Pros?

- They can be easy to fake, especially if you just have a list without any reasons, but unless you're talented later day readlists with reasons get trickier. Now scum has to say, "Brass looks scummy because, err.. umm... reasons..." It's one more thing that scum has to lie about and one more place to look for tells.

- It helps keep town informed about your suspicions if you get mislynched or NKed. You don't take it to the grave with you.

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Post Post #105  (isolation #4)  » Tue Jan 22, 2019 7:42 pm

In post 97, xwing wrote:
In post 92, L84Dnr wrote:Roo, you're being unusually quiet. Perhaps a little pressure on your wagon will get your tongue wagging.

VOTE: Roo

hey l8, what do you think of the rest of the player list?


Not a lot to go on yet. Still early in Day 1.

- Roo's still being pretty quiet despite having two votes on him. He also has a comfy spot on Brass' wagon.
- You haven't posted a whole lot either. And you have a similarly comfy position on Brass' wagon.
- DT has been more active but much of that has been fluff.
- Volxen had an odd reaction to YellowSnow's suggestion that claiming to enjoy playing scum might make you more likely to be scum. YellowSnow's comment clearly wasn't a policy lynch, though I agree that it's a poor reason to suspect that somebody might be scum.
- YellowSnow has been pretty vocal and visible in his argument, so weak town lean.
- Brass has also been visible, but that's his job as IC regardless of alignment.
- Null on Heartstone and Saint.

All weak reads at the moment.

The real problem is that we have too many singleton wagons. No pressure from those.

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Post Post #110  (isolation #5)  » Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:01 pm

In post 107, xwing wrote:
In post 105, L84Dnr wrote:The real problem is that we have too many singleton wagons. No pressure from those

join me on saint, then?
VOTE: saint


I'd like to hear from Roo first. I think that he's at L-1 now, so nobody else vote him.

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Post Post #117  (isolation #6)  » Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:48 pm

In post 113, Roo wrote:
In post 92, L84Dnr wrote:Roo, you're being unusually quiet. Perhaps a little pressure on your wagon will get your tongue wagging.

VOTE: Roo

In post 106, SaintAngelDFE wrote:
In post 101, brassherald wrote:
In post 57, SaintAngelDFE wrote:I figured, just thought it was an amusing moment to read "quack" after what you said.

What are your thoughts on the game so far?


I'm enjoying the game quite a bit, actually! Most of my experience is with town of salem, but I was referred here by a friend that used to play on these forums.

I'm definitely starting to agree with the push on Roo, he hasn't said anything as of late.

VOTE: Roo

In post 108, YellowSnow wrote:between roo and brass I like the roo wagon better. At least brass has been helpful.

VOTE: roo


If the biggest knock against me right now is that I haven't posted much today, I apologize. I did answer the questions directed at me.

If anyone has anything in particular they'd like me to address, I'd be happy to


Why so quiet?

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Post Post #118  (isolation #7)  » Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:50 pm

In post 107, xwing wrote:
In post 105, L84Dnr wrote:The real problem is that we have too many singleton wagons. No pressure from those

join me on saint, then?
VOTE: saint


Just curious, why are you voting Saint?

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Post Post #119  (isolation #8)  » Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:01 pm

In post 116, YellowSnow wrote:The IC could help other new players perform better and help town win the game.


By the same reasoning he could help scum win. He's here to help all of us regardless of alignment.

That said, I agree that the IC probably shouldn't be lynched on Day 1, but neither should he be given a free pass.

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Post Post #129  (isolation #9)  » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:03 pm

In post 122, Roo wrote:
In post 117, L84Dnr wrote:
In post 113, Roo wrote:
In post 92, L84Dnr wrote:Roo, you're being unusually quiet. Perhaps a little pressure on your wagon will get your tongue wagging.

VOTE: Roo

In post 106, SaintAngelDFE wrote:
In post 101, brassherald wrote:
In post 57, SaintAngelDFE wrote:I figured, just thought it was an amusing moment to read "quack" after what you said.

What are your thoughts on the game so far?


I'm enjoying the game quite a bit, actually! Most of my experience is with town of salem, but I was referred here by a friend that used to play on these forums.

I'm definitely starting to agree with the push on Roo, he hasn't said anything as of late.

VOTE: Roo

In post 108, YellowSnow wrote:between roo and brass I like the roo wagon better. At least brass has been helpful.

VOTE: roo


If the biggest knock against me right now is that I haven't posted much today, I apologize. I did answer the questions directed at me.

If anyone has anything in particular they'd like me to address, I'd be happy to


Why so quiet?


Just a busy day yesterday and today at work. Didn't have a chance to check the site since I posted yesterday at lunch


Fair enough. RL happens.

UNVOTE:

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Post Post #131  (isolation #10)  » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:11 pm

In post 125, SaintAngelDFE wrote:
In post 120, xwing wrote:@l8:
i feel like saint's got no original reasoning, mainly pushing what others have stated..
his first vote on hearth was echoing what i thought..
his second vote was on blank (not sure if it technically counted coz of the formatting, but the intent was there), who was inactive/site flaked..
his third vote on roo was echoing what others were saying..
he's not even engaging tried to engage them..
so his votes also feel opportunistic and just wanting a lynch instead of trying to sort..


For the most part I'm trying to figure out how forum mafia works honestly, as stated before I've only really played Town of Salem which is much more fast paced than this, trying to learn as I go. I'm not trying to lead for any lynching based on the fact that I'm not sure how well any scum reading I might be able to pick up would actually be.


Same here. I'm used to a 24 hour day cycle, which is much faster paced. Posting will help you with that.

Right now I have to agree with xwing.

VOTE: SaintAngelDFE

So tell us, what are your reads? On Day 1 they're always weak, so no worries there.

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Post Post #133  (isolation #11)  » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:18 pm

In post 130, xwing wrote:how about a yellow-saint scum team? :)


I have a tough time spotting scum on Day 1, much less the entire team.

YellowSnow strikes me as too bold for n00bscum. They tend to be more withdrawn and get lynched for trying to fly under the radar. He's made a lot of noise. Granted, it isn't about much, but that's exactly the point. He's making a whole lot of noise for no gain as scum. Could be a good act but I'm doubting it. I'm giving him a slight town lean because of that.

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Post Post #140  (isolation #12)  » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:34 am

In post 139, volxen wrote:Is the only thing that you found "odd" about my reaction the fact that I used the phrase "policy lynch"?


That was it. I agree with your reasoning completely up to that point. There just seems to be a huge gulf between suggesting that something somebody said might be scummy a bit scummy and a policy lynch. Seemed out of place to me but like I said, these are weak Day 1 reads, so I'm reaching.

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Post Post #149  (isolation #13)  » Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:40 pm

In post 141, SaintAngelDFE wrote:I don't have too much of a read on Volxen based on similar issues as Brass, however I feel a little more sure that he's town.


My suspects right now are between Volxen and DT. VOTE: volxen


Saint, you really need to explain voting one of your town leans.

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Post Post #150  (isolation #14)  » Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:44 pm

In post 147, xwing wrote:so roo being placed at L-1, means there is *likely to be at least one scum* on his wagon..(not an exact science, but the concept holds)


If Roo is town that holds up reasonably well. If Roo is scum then the chances of his partner being elsewhere are better.

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Post Post #156  (isolation #15)  » Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:56 pm

In post 152, xwing wrote:
In post 150, L84Dnr wrote:
In post 147, xwing wrote:so roo being placed at L-1, means there is *likely to be at least one scum* on his wagon..(not an exact science, but the concept holds)


If Roo is town that holds up reasonably well. If Roo is scum then the chances of his partner being elsewhere are better.

yup..take this with a grain of salt though, as in my last completed game, we got burned because of this thinking (it turned out a wagon we were analyzing was all-town).. :D


Yup, it's just one tool, not the toolbox.

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Post Post #169  (isolation #16)  » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:50 pm

In post 163, SaintAngelDFE wrote:My bad for the late response to this one - long day at work. I had been typing this in between a couple of meetings and must have honestly gotten mixed up while reading it back through, no real excuse as to why I added Volxen or voted him.

I need to start re-reading what I type, especially if I'm going to try and post while at work apparently. My only "scum read" is on DT honestly, but I'm not completely sure about Yellow or Brass still.


VOTE: DoubtingThomas


Could be, but I'll be interested in seeing your responses to xwing's questions.

UNVOTE:

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Post Post #170  (isolation #17)  » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:53 pm

Now if you want a decent reason for starting a wagon on Volxen how about the fact that he's an experienced player with only 9 posts in nearly 7 pages. Much of that is low content.

VOTE: Volxen

Volxen, why the silent treatment?

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Post Post #192  (isolation #18)  » Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:50 pm

In post 171, DoubtingThomas wrote:L84, what are your thoughts


I think it's pretty quiet in here. 10 people should have generated more posts than this in 5ish days. Clearly not all of them are scum, so we're looking at a mix of lurking scum, n00bish shyness, and RL commitments. Hard to say which are which yet. Waiting to hear from Volxen because he doesn't have the excuse of being a n00b.

@BrassHerald Is this level of not posting normal for a newbie game or do we have an unusually high number of mimes playing?

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Post Post #198  (isolation #19)  » Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:26 pm

In post 194, volxen wrote:
In post 170, L84Dnr wrote:Now if you want a decent reason for starting a wagon on Volxen how about the fact that he's an experienced player with only 9 posts in nearly 7 pages. Much of that is low content.

VOTE: Volxen

Volxen, why the silent treatment?


I wasn't able to post last night due to IRL reasons, but I'm back now. I will be posting more later after I re-read the last several pages,


It isn't just last night. You've been quiet all game.

but why single me out specifically because I am an SE?


I didn't. I already voted Roo for low post count. It's just more obvious as SE. With n00bs you get a whole variety of behaviours and trying to deconvolve the scumsign and the n00bsign is a right royal pain.

If I had the same number of posts in 7 pages as a newbie slot, would that still have stuck out to you?


Yup. I'd just be waffling more over whether it was due to n00bishness or not.

You voted for me because you presumably want me to post more and want to see more content from me.


Not precisely that I want you to post more, or more content. More that I want to know why you haven't. You may have an excellent reason for not having posted more. I just don't know what it is.

But you just asked me very generally, "why the silent treatment?". Do you have any specific questions for me?


Sorry, I thought that in context this would be understood to mean more specifically, "Why haven't you been more active?"

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Post Post #199  (isolation #20)  » Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:38 pm

In post 189, DoubtingThomas wrote:
In post 188, YellowSnow wrote:For the record I think it's possible there may be scum on Roo's wagon. It's not me, but if had to guess I'd say l84 or Saint based on wagon position. I still think Roo is more likely scum than either though.


what do you mean by the wagon position? can you explain?


Scum tend to like to try and avoid the spotlight because they know that they're targets. That means that they tend to try and avoid prominent positions on wagons like the front or the hammer. People who start wagons and hammer wagons get asked questions that scum want to avoid answering, so you commonly find them mid-wagon. Or off the wagon completely. Check the wiki entry on Vote Count Analysis. That said, smart scum know that mid-wagon looks suspicious, so this can get very meta very quickly.

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Post Post #212  (isolation #21)  » Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:49 pm

@DT Self-meta (what you were doing in your post 186) is one of the least reliable sources of informations, even when the player is town. It's so poor that using it is frequently regarded as a scumtell.

And your reaction is way out of proportion to what BrassHerald said, so have a Finger-o-Suspiscion on me.

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Post Post #220  (isolation #22)  » Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:18 pm

In post 216, DoubtingThomas wrote:
In post 199, L84Dnr wrote:Scum tend to like to try and avoid the spotlight because they know that they're targets.


In post 212, L84Dnr wrote:And your reaction is way out of proportion to what BrassHerald said, so have a Finger-o-Suspiscion on me.


Question,

You believe scum tend to avoide the spotlight

My reaction was way out of proportion to what Brass said, so I made myself get in the spotlight

Why do you scum read me for that again?


Because your over-reaction was involuntary. Just because you don't want to be in the spotlight doesn't mean that you're good at staying out of it.

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Post Post #222  (isolation #23)  » Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:32 pm

In post 197, xwing wrote:i think DT may be town by virtue of townslip..


I'm not seeing it. Can you explain?

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Post Post #238  (isolation #24)  » Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:14 pm

In post 221, Roo wrote:
In post 218, volxen wrote:What troubles me about all of this is that if you are scum, everything you are doing is fake, including your reads, so it makes sense that could mess up your reads/vote like this (since it would all be fake anyways if you are scum). If you are town then you really, really botched up that entire post (141) along with your vote. So why is this more likely to be an honest mistake from town!Saint rather than a scumslip from scum!Saint?


I think this really sums up what happened well. And before a response is given, it makes me think that it is more likely than not that this was a scumslip.


Why do you figure it's more likely a scumslip than a simple mistake?

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Post Post #273  (isolation #25)  » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:20 pm

In post 266, YellowSnow wrote:I'm not going to reply because I've been voted on. Ask nicely and maybe I'll respond.


Wow. :eek: I think that you just fashioned yourself a noose. :facepalm: :dead:

VOTE: Yellow Snow

Please explain why you think that anybody would unvote you for refusing to answer a question. Pretty please with sugar and cream on top.

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Post Post #287  (isolation #26)  » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:17 am

YellowSnow's flat out refusal to answer questions strikes me as just plain anti-wincon. It makes no sense if you're scum or town. My vote remains on him because that's thunderingly anti-town but I'm worried that he's just really bad at playing town.

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Post Post #288  (isolation #27)  » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:24 am

@Volxen Thanks for posting those links to Newbie 1906 and 1910.

@Brass What's the rules on posting/quoting/linking material from previous games for meta?

I'm seeing some startling contrast between his post 266 and the ISO that Volxen linked from Newbie 1906.

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Post Post #298  (isolation #28)  » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:09 am

YellowSnow in Newbie 1906:

In post 42, YellowSnow wrote:The correct answer is anything you do in the game may require explanation.


In post 63, YellowSnow wrote:Your previous record only gets you so far.

This isn't poker. Town should be more transparent. Scum are expected not to be.


YellowSnow in this game:

In post 266, YellowSnow wrote:I'm not going to reply because I've been voted on. Ask nicely and maybe I'll respond.


So aside from being ferociously anti-town, this response is completely at odds with his town playstyle. I'd be content to lynch him.

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Post Post #308  (isolation #29)  » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:44 pm

How much will an RC be worth? The roles aren't certain so scum can claim most anything. The only way to even begin to disprove it would be a massclaim, which I'm thinking is a poor Day 1 strategy.

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Post Post #320  (isolation #30)  » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:11 pm

In post 312, YellowSnow wrote:I don't care if I'm lynched. I'm pretty sure there is scum on my wagon so town wins either way. I'll get a reads list done tomorrow.


This isn't simply anti-town, it's anti-wincon no matter what you are. If you don't play to your wincon then it spoils the game for everybody. There's no fun in lynching a pair of obvscum or outwitting thunderingly stoopid townies. It's like doing those 25 piece puzzles they make for 4 year-olds.

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Post Post #321  (isolation #31)  » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:15 pm

@The Worst

Will it help if we wait until DT's replacement arrives before lynching YellowSnow? I don't see any need to rush this and we can probably squeeze another n00b into Day 1.

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Post Post #334  (isolation #32)  » Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:07 pm

In post 332, YellowSnow wrote:L84Dnr - Scum for his spot on the Roo wagon and immediately voting me instead of asking questions.


Well, I no longer feel like an underachiever for not being scumread. Why haven't you voted me though?

As it happens, my place on Roo's wagon was dictated by the fact that I was subbed in part way through the game. By that point most players had a vote on them so of course I'm not going to be lead on a wagon. While you're on it, why is my vote on Roo any scummier than Saint's vote or yours? Your vote put him at L-1 after all.

There's nothing scummy about voting you before asking questions. That's just pressure to make you answer. Standard practice.

Thanks for the reads though! I'm sure there are some lovely associative tells in there.

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Post Post #335  (isolation #33)  » Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:11 pm

In post 333, YellowSnow wrote:SInce the roo wagon deflated lets...

VOTE: L84Dnr


Yes! I am no longer an underachiever for not having attracted a single vote! :lol:

You have immediately voted me without asking any questions. By your reasoning you must be scum.

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Post Post #340  (isolation #34)  » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:48 pm

In post 336, YellowSnow wrote:So evidently anything that you declare "standard practice" isn't scummy. That's not much of an answer.


It has nothing to do with anything that I declared. It's just part of the game. If it isn't then this answer will look mind-bogglingly strange to everybody else playing and I'll get wagonned. Simple as that. It isn't as if my vote harmed you in any way. If you think otherwise then please explain why you should ask questions before voting.

You seem like a very reactive player and that oozes scum. You're not actively sorting just trying to blend in with others who are sorting.


And now you're changing your reason for scum-reading me. That suggests that your reasons are made up. Would you care to provide some evidence for your claims?

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Post Post #342  (isolation #35)  » Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:53 pm

In post 341, YellowSnow wrote:The fact that you are looking at votes as harming a player rather than the team as a whole is concerning.l


And how did my vote harm the team?

Expanding on my reasons for scum reading you does not at all mean my reasons are made up.


It isn't expansion if your old reason has been exposed as bunk and it's an entirely new reason.

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Post Post #355  (isolation #36)  » Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:35 pm

In post 354, YellowSnow wrote:He's not sorting he's just trying to discredit me with misreps.


And how exactly have I misrepresented you?

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Post Post #357  (isolation #37)  » Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:42 pm

BlurryX, if you missed it, YellowSnow is at L-1, so don't vote him. Roo has notified him of an intent to hammer, but we're holding off to let him have his say.

Could you give us a read on these posts from him?

In post 266, YellowSnow wrote:I'm not going to reply because I've been voted on. Ask nicely and maybe I'll respond.


In post 316, YellowSnow wrote:Because I don't defend myself against awful wagons.

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Post Post #358  (isolation #38)  » Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:43 pm

In post 356, YellowSnow wrote:And now he's playing dumb.


No, I'm asking you a simple question. If I've misrepresented what you're saying then you ought to be able to quote the post. It's called evidence.

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Post Post #363  (isolation #39)  » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:12 pm

In post 359, YellowSnow wrote:I did, iso me and you can see where I said you misrepped me.


I can see that without the ISO. I mean that you ought to be able to quote the post where I supposedly misrepped you. Where's the evidence for this misrep?

You're focusing on selective posts you think will incriminate me rather than looking at my whole body of work because you know you're scum and I'm town.


And once again you shift the goalposts for why I'm supposedly scummy.

Yes, I'm focussing on your obviously scummy posts. But since you want a full rundown anybody who cares to check can see that your ISO reveals a litany of low-content one-liners and a pair of RVS votes. The only serious reads and vote that you've made came after Roo threatened to hammer you. And you say I'm not trying to sort! :roll:

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Post Post #364  (isolation #40)  » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:16 pm

In post 361, BlurryX wrote:
In post 357, L84Dnr wrote:BlurryX, if you missed it, YellowSnow is at L-1, so don't vote him. Roo has notified him of an intent to hammer, but we're holding off to let him have his say.

Could you give us a read on these posts from him?

In post 266, YellowSnow wrote:I'm not going to reply because I've been voted on. Ask nicely and maybe I'll respond.


In post 316, YellowSnow wrote:Because I don't defend myself against awful wagons.


Antitown for sure. Antitown != scum though. Also, no intention for me to hammer as of yet. We will see how it looks in 24 hours.


Granted. I'm concerned that he might be town and just really bad at it.

That said, Volxen posted links to his ISO from a few games back when he was town and it's a night and day contrast.

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Post Post #365  (isolation #41)  » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:31 pm

There aren't any games where YellowSnow has played scum that I'm aware of, but the two where he played town are a pretty sharp contrast. Previously when town he was big on other people explaining themselves and being transparent. That's a complete 180 from his current play.

He's currently my best candidate for lynch. If he's a mislynch then at least he's an anti-town player mislynched.

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Post Post #366  (isolation #42)  » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:34 pm

WTF?!? Didn't BlurryX have a post right before my #365?!? I was just replying to it. where did it go?!?!?

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Post Post #367  (isolation #43)  » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:37 pm

Crap. I was on the previous page! Blurry, my post 365 is in response to your post 349. Sorry for the confusion.

Bedtime for me!

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Post Post #375  (isolation #44)  » Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:42 am

It's possible, but I'm not going to start looking for teams until we've got one scum confirmed.

The simpler explanation here is that YellowSnow's targeting of me is just ill-conceived OMGUS. He might have had a chance diverting us onto Saint if he hadn't made me the focus of his attention.

Not sure what to think of Saint. Could be scum but could be n00btown.

We're 12 hours from end of Day 1, so we should either agree on a new target or hammer YellowSnow.

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Post Post #378  (isolation #45)  » Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:52 am

From the last vote count by The Worst

In post 360, the worst wrote:day one will end automatically in (expired on 2019-01-30 14:00:00) or sooner if a lynch is achieved by majority.


I don't see what a claim would be worth at this point. Anybody with half a wit can fake claim given the number of possible roles.

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Post Post #386  (isolation #46)  » Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:56 pm

I have RL commitments soon and will be off until lynchtime.

YellowSnow has been at L-1 and told of inten to hammer. Saint hasn't.

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Post Post #418  (isolation #47)  » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:17 pm

I'd also like to hear from Saint.

VOTE: Saint

Saint, your ISO looks awfully lurky. Is there a good reason for that?

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Post Post #419  (isolation #48)  » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:27 pm

In post 417, xwing wrote:im surprised with the hearth NK..i would think it was a lucky shot..


A bit odd that both the SE's and the IC made it through the night. I had expected scum to take out one of the more seasoned players.

I checked Hearth's ISO but didn't see any obvious breadcrumbs that scum might have picked up on. I might have missed it in one of his walls though.

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Post Post #428  (isolation #49)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:10 pm

Ugg. These short wagons are a pain. I really prefer plurality voting over hammered votes.

UNVOTE:

I'm concerned by the NK. If one of the experienced players is scum then leaving the other two alive for cover makes sense.

VOTE: Volxen

Volxen, your ISO is thin with just 27 posts in 11 days. You placed all of a single vote during Day 1 and that was an RVS vote that you parked on YellowSnow in post 17 and left there. That'd be lurky for a n00b and as an SE I'm sure you know how to scum hunt better than that. Can you explain this behaviour?

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Post Post #429  (isolation #50)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:21 pm

In post 427, SaintAngelDFE wrote:Was there anybody that Hearth was particularly suspecting? I didn't notice anything specifically aimed at anyone until the wagon on Yellow, but I'll be rereading again just in case, not saying they're scum it's just something I want to look back on.


There wasn't anybody he really mixed it up with. That sort of behaviour tends to be TvT tunnelling anyway.

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Post Post #433  (isolation #51)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:14 pm

In post 430, volxen wrote:
In post 428, L84Dnr wrote:Ugg. These short wagons are a pain. I really prefer plurality voting over hammered votes.

UNVOTE:

I'm concerned by the NK. If one of the experienced players is scum then leaving the other two alive for cover makes sense.

VOTE: Volxen

Volxen, your ISO is thin with just 27 posts in 11 days. You placed all of a single vote during Day 1 and that was an RVS vote that you parked on YellowSnow in post 17 and left there. That'd be lurky for a n00b and as an SE I'm sure you know how to scum hunt better than that. Can you explain this behaviour?


I voted for Yellowsnow during RVS, and then he became my top suspect later on in the day after I cased him, so there was no reason for me to move my vote around at that point. I did come close to voting for Saint at one point, but as I pointed out in some of my posts, he said things that were giving me newb!town vibes, which was not the case with YellowSnow. I had (and still have) suspicions about the DT/BlurryX slot, but Yellowsnow was the person I suspected the most on day one. And while I did not move my vote around, I engaged a lot with people on day one, so why immediately latch onto the fact that I didn't move my vote around? And why directly tie that to scumhunting? I don’t have to move my vote around to keep up with scumhunting.


Voting people puts pressure on them and helps with VCA. Sure, mark YellowSnow as lynchable for later, but I'd be moving my vote around in the meanwhile to keep the scum hopping. I can come back to him toward the end of day.

And I often times will have a smaller number of posts with more content (in some cases "wallposts"), rather than the "typical" way of playing this game, which is to have a lot of shorter posts. I feel I had a decent amount of content for day one, even if my post count wasn't high. I'm not understanding why post count in and of itself is so important to you, but it apparently is, so perhaps you can explain why?


It's one factor. Combined with your stationary vote it looks suspicious. Granted, your posts weren't fluff or I'd be more suspicious.

Interesting how you have put your vote on me once again for the same reason that you did on day one: my post count in relation to the fact that I am an SE.


It makes it stand out more. N00bs can be lurky for a variety of reasons like not understanding what they're doing or being shy. You don't suffer from those.

In addition to that, you seem to be suggesting that the only possible explanation for Hearth’s nightkill is that SE(s) and/or IC have to be scum because scum wants to hide behind other experienced players. Why is that the only possible explanation?


I don't believe that I ever said that, which makes this a curious misrep.

As I see it Hearth’s nightkill was either 1) to generate WIFOM/confusion or 2) because scum found something in Hearth’s ISO that indicated to them that he was the doctor, or at least that he was likely to be a town power role.


Or any of a number of other reasons that we haven't even considered. Only the scum know.

Other than expressing concerns that YellowSnow "might just be bad town", you didn't disagree with or question the case I presented against YellowSnow on day one; in fact you even extended my case by quoting posts from his Newbie 1906 game to show how he was being different in this game (refusing to answer questions) compared to Newbie 1906 (talking about the importance of being transparent as town). You fully supported my case and committed to pushing Yellowsnow.


All true. I have no quibble with your reasoning.

So if there was scum on YellowSnow's wagon -- and it is very likely that there was at least one scum on his wagon


I'm not certain that's true. I'll grant you that it's unlikely that they weren't both on it. But scum like letting town lynch town and not taking the blame for the mislynch, so they could have both been off of it. Xwing looks pretty town, which would leave Saint and Blurry.

why am I the most likely person to be that on-wagon scum?


I don't believe that I ever said you were.

Do you have reasons for scumreading me that go beyond 1) me not moving my vote around on day one and 2) my post count on day one?


Not at the moment.

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Post Post #435  (isolation #52)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:35 pm

Here's the final vote count for Day 1. I've coloured in known townies in green for reference.

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (==[]) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald, Roo
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (2) : xwing, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


If anything, Volxen has understated the danger of having both scum on that wagon. Since at least two of the living players on that wagon must be town they can eliminate themselves from the list of possibilities. That would leave two town players with a 2 in 3 chance of hitting a scum with nothing better than a shot in the dark.

On the other hand, there are a couple of safe wagons that won't lead to a lynch where scum could lodge a vote but not take any blame for the mislynch.

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Post Post #437  (isolation #53)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:11 pm

I was going to give Blurry a bit of time to post before getting into this, but since Volxen has started down this road:

Look at vote count 1.18 from the POV for Blurrytown:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


OK, perhaps you'd rather not hammer YelowSnow just yet, but you could take Saint, your prime scum read, to L-1 and create a competing wagon. Several of us could have been persuaded to lynch Saint instead.

Now look at it from the PoV of Blurryscum:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


What's a poor scum to do? Hammer a townie or put Saint at L-1? Try and cobble together a reason for a new wagon?

And since I'm reading Saint as moderately scummy right now, let's make a further assumption:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


So we have a distancing vote by Saint on Blurry/DT, and poor Blurry not wanting to put his partner at L-1 because he won't even get any town cred for the bus. We do have some distancing by Blurry on Saint by way of being his top scum read but no vote.

Granted, there are a fair number of assumptions going into that, but Saint and Blurry are in my scum pile right now so this makes a fair bit of sense of their actions. Unless there are further developments, which there's plenty of time for, I'm content to lynch Saint at the end of day. If he flips red than Blurry's lack of Day 1 vote becomes significantly more meaningful.

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Post Post #440  (isolation #54)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:03 pm

In post 439, volxen wrote:In Saint's defense though, Yellowsnow got up to L-1 after Brass voted for him, so the soonest Saint could have voted for Yellowsnow was at the end of the deadline, but Roo had already given intent to hammer Yellow in any case.


Saint could have easily hopped onto the YellowSnow wagon before he reached L-1 but after he started getting anti-town. That's what I did.

Contrast that with BlurryX, who was scumreading one of the people being wagoned (Saint) and townreading the other (Yellowsnow), and yet didn't vote at all. Whereas Saint arguably has a valid reason for not being on a major wagon with multiple voters (because there was simply no wagon he could join), BlurryX does not have a valid reason for not voting for his scumread (Saint).


Which will make for some very tough explaining for Blurry if Saint flips red.

So BluryX has a lot of scum equity, especially when factoring in DT's content as well.


I'd prefer to judge Blurry for his own actions. Hard to make him answer for another player's misdeeds. DT dropped out, so his lack of contribution may simply indicate lack of interest.

But I don't think it's all that likely that BlurryX and Saint are scum together.


Quite possibly not. It just makes sense of my best reads and of their voting behaviour. One of many possible scenarios though.

First, it's just very rare for a townie to get mislynched with no scum being on the wagon. Especially on day one where five votes are needed to pull off a lynch -- that would imply that at least 5/6 (~83.33%) of Yellowsnow's fellow townies all agreed that he was scum.


I've seen it under similar circumstances. A n00b townie does something foolishly anti-town toward end of day and town piles on so fast that scum is left without any good positions on the wagon. They're left with a suspicious "Me too!" vote.

Also, look at YellowSnow's final wagon. Hearth is NKed town and you know what your alignment is. Do the remaining 3 players give you any scum vibes?

Second, there was this dynamic on day one where multiple people seemed to be OK with lynching either Yellowsnow or Saint if it came down to it, which makes me think both could be town here -- interchangeable mislynches from scum's POV.


We should revisit those if Saint flips green.

Third, Saint did give off newb!town vibes on day one that I don't think he could easily fake on his own without some serious coaching/help from a more experienced scumbuddy.


Anything in particular?

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Post Post #441  (isolation #55)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:04 pm

Is it just me or is it quiet in here? 7 players, 3 days, and just 4 votes.

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Post Post #442  (isolation #56)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:10 pm

Day 1 VCA

Known alignments have been coloured in. Apologies in advance for any errors.

Spoiler: "Chronologically"
Wagon position is indicated in brackets.

Post 12 Brass votes Roo (1)
Post 13 Yellow votes Xwing (1)
Post 14 Roo votes Blank/L8 (1)
Post 15 Hearth votes DT/Blurry (1)
Post 17 Volxen votes Yellow (1)
Post 20 DT votes Brass (1)
Post 23 Roo votes Brass (2)
Post 24 Yellow votes Volxen (1)
Post 25 Hearth unvotes
Post 26 Hearth votes Volxen (2)
Post 29 Xwing votes Brass (3)
Post 30 Saint votes Hearth (1)
Post 37 Saint votes Blank/L8 (1) <--- mixed up vote tags so may not have been recorded
Post 39 Hearth unvotes
Post 40 Hearth votes Xwing (1)
Post 92 L8 votes Roo (2)
Post 106 Saint votes Roo (3)
Post 107 Xwing votes Saint (1)
Post 108 Yellow votes Roo (4) <--- L-1
Post 121 Roo votes Saint (2)
Post 127 Brass unvotes
Post 129 L8 unvotes
Post 131 L8 votes Saint (3)
Post 141 Saint votes Volxen (1)
Post 146 Hearth unvotes
Post 163 Saint votes DT/Blurry (1)
Post 169 L8 unvotes
Post 170 L8 votes Volxen (1)
Post 176 Brass votes Saint (3)
Post 182 Hearth votes Volxen (2)
Post 207 DT votes Brass (1) <--- again, he was already voting Brass
Post 257 Hearth unvotes
Post 265 Hearth votes Yellow (2)
Post 273 L8 votes Yellow (3)
Post 293 Brass votes Yellow (4) <--- L-1
Post 333 Yellow votes L8
Post 349 Blurry unvotes
Post 383 Yellow votes Saint (3)
Post 410 Roo votes Yellow (5) <--- Hammer!


Spoiler: "By Player"
Wagon position is indicated in brackets.

Post 13 Yellow votes Xwing (1)
Post 24 Yellow votes Volxen (1)
Post 108 Yellow votes Roo (4) <--- L-1
Post 333 Yellow votes L8
Post 383 Yellow votes Saint (3)

Post 15 Hearth votes DT/Blurry (1)
Post 25 Hearth unvotes
Post 26 Hearth votes Volxen (2)
Post 39 Hearth unvotes
Post 40 Hearth votes Xwing (1)
Post 146 Hearth unvotes
Post 182 Hearth votes Volxen (2)
Post 257 Hearth unvotes
Post 265 Hearth votes Yellow (2)

Post 12 Brass votes Roo (1)
Post 127 Brass unvotes
Post 176 Brass votes Saint (3)
Post 293 Brass votes Yellow (4) <--- L-1

Post 20 DT votes Brass (1)
Post 207 DT votes Brass (1) <--- again, he was already voting Brass
Post 349 Blurry unvotes

Post 92 L8 votes Roo (2)
Post 129 L8 unvotes
Post 131 L8 votes Saint (3)
Post 169 L8 unvotes
Post 170 L8 votes Volxen (1)
Post 273 L8 votes Yellow (3)

Post 14 Roo votes Blank/L8 (1)
Post 23 Roo votes Brass (2)
Post 121 Roo votes Saint (2)
Post 410 Roo votes Yellow (5) <--- Hammer!

Post 30 Saint votes Hearth (1)
Post 37 Saint votes Blank/L8 (1) <--- mixed up vote tags so may not have been recorded
Post 106 Saint votes Roo (3)
Post 141 Saint votes Volxen (1)
Post 163 Saint votes DT/Blurry (1)

Post 17 Volxen votes Yellow (1)

Post 29 Xwing votes Brass (3)
Post 107 Xwing votes Saint (1)


Spoiler: "By Wagon"
Some votes are listed more than once because I've listed it as a separate wagon when one player drops off and another joins.

Xwing: (1) Yellow
Blank/L8: (1) Roo
DT: (1) Hearth
Volxen: (2) Yellow, Hearth
Brass: (3) DT, Roo, Xwing
Hearth: (1) Saint
Blank/L8: (1) Saint
Xwing: (1) Hearth
Roo: (4) Brass, L8, Saint, Yellow
Saint: (3) Xwing, Roo, L8
Volxen: (1) Saint
DT: (1) Saint
Volxen: (2) L8, Hearth
Brass: (1) DT
Saint: (3) Xwing, Roo, Brass
L8: (1) Yellow
Saint: (3) Xwing, Roo, Yellow
Yellow: (5) Volxen, Hearth, L8, Brass, Roo

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Post Post #443  (isolation #57)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:21 pm

A few notes to take away from that:

- Our IC and SE's aren't big on voting, with Brass (3 votes), Xwing (2 votes) and Volxen (1 vote). Is this standard play so that the inexperienced players take the initiative?
- Aside from his RVS vote, both of Brass' votes were in very safe spots.
- DT/Blurry's vote record is very slim, managing to vote Brass twice before Blurry took over and unvoted.
- Hearth voted a lot. Perhaps this is what got him NKed. We'll have to ask scum when the game ends.

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Post Post #447  (isolation #58)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:08 pm

In post 444, volxen wrote:"Standard play" for me is to vote for someone during RVS, and then move my vote when I have a serious scumread on someone. In this case, it just worked out that the person I had my RVS vote on (Yellowsnow) ended up being my top scumread at the end of day one, so I didn't move my vote onto someone else.

I guess this is just a playstyle thing for you, but in my experience, especially post RVS, most people don't vote for someone just because they want to question them or whatever. Usually after RVS has ended, when people place a vote for someone it's because they are scumreading that person. Especially if it's day two and beyond. This is why I asked you earlier, "Why do you think I am the most likely scum on Yellow's wagon", because you immediately voted for me after Saint posted and you unvoted him. I assumed your vote for me was you saying, "You're my top scumread Volxen", because that is usually what a vote means at this stage of the game.


Different play styles then. I prefer to keep my vote moving, partly because it encourages the people voted to talk and partly because it's informative to see who votes with me.

I also work the opposite direction from you. I tend to vote my lower scum reads earlier to try and clear them and narrow the scum pool.

UNVOTE:

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Post Post #448  (isolation #59)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:13 pm

In post 446, Roo wrote:Blurry's reading of the Saint situation feels scummy. Saying that Saint would have been the better choice but still calling it "a hasty switch" and ending with the qualifier about new players just doesn't sit right with me.

Blurry easily could've put a vote on Saint who he called his biggest scumread on Day 1, I agree with Volxen that he has no valid reason not to have voted that way. Blurry says we can sort that out today, but it maybe could've been sorted out more thoroughly already had Blurry voted for Saint on Day 1.

VOTE: BlurryX


I could be read as typical scum hesitancy to vote, especially if Saint is his partner.

Blurry's been reluctant to say much. Let's put some real pressure on.

VOTE: Blurry

Blurry is now at L-1, so nobody else vote him.

Blurry, would you care to explain why you've been so hesitant?

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Post Post #449  (isolation #60)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:17 pm

EBWOP: The first sentence in my post 448 should read, "It could be read as typical scum hesitancy to vote..."

"It", not "I". :facepalm:

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Post Post #451  (isolation #61)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:32 pm

Blurry, I hope that you didn't just self-hammer. :facepalm:

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Post Post #454  (isolation #62)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:39 pm

I'm not sure it is. Not seeing a rule so I'm awaiting the Word of Mod.

Blurry, assuming you aren't lynched, please don't give up. Replacing in is tough and you may not think that you've played as well as you could have, but you can always try and pull it off. This is just a game and it's a n00b game, so perfect play is hardly what's expected.

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Post Post #456  (isolation #63)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:42 pm

Agree with Volxen. Autolynch is the height of bad town play. Saint is a top suspect but look at everybody.

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Post Post #458  (isolation #64)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:47 pm

OK, the games I play self-votes often don't count.

The biggest associative tell so far is what looks like a distancing vote by Saint on DT/Blurry followed by Blurry's reluctance to vote Saint. That plays into the auto-lynch Saint theme though, so looking deeper.

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Post Post #465  (isolation #65)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:17 pm

Scum has bee having unusually good luck with their NK. I was hoping that our remaining PR could shed some light on who was doing what.

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Post Post #466  (isolation #66)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:33 pm

Interesting that the NK was on the wagon again. Now it looks like:

vote count 2.03

L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (==[]) : volxen, Roo, L84Dnr, BlurryX
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (1) : xwing
volxen (1) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: SaintAngelDFE, brassherald



That rather narrows the suspect pool for Roo and I.

Since scum don't like lynching scum I doubt that the other scum was on the wagon. That leaves Xwing, Brass, and Saint.

There's a lot of evidence pointing to Saint, but I'd like to examine all the possibilities. As Volxen said, we don't want to waste Day 3 by autolynching Saint and find ourselves in MYLO/LYLO with no further information.

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Post Post #467  (isolation #67)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:37 pm

@The Worst

Question on mechanics if you can answer it. If Player A jails Player B and Player B NKs Player A what is the outcome? Would the jailing thwart the NK?

Volxen makes sense as an NK target but I was hoping that our scum would be in jail.

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Post Post #470  (isolation #68)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:23 pm

@Xwing

In post 197, xwing wrote:@hearth:
to backtrack means to reverse your position on someone or something, but in a scummy/unnatural way..
also brass is right, drawing associations is far too early, i just combined my two biggest scum reads to make the scum team..hence saint-yellow.. :)

@DT: this is important!!!
scum know who their fellow scum are, and they know everyone's alignment already..
they also have a private thread where they can communicate/interact at anytime (called daychat)..
what they dont know is who the town power roles (TPRs) are..
depending on the setup we are in though, they *may* have roles to find out who the PR is (e.g. mafia rolecop)..

i think DT may be town by virtue of townslip..


I know that you later said this was a mistake, but at the time why did you think that DT might have townslipped?

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Post Post #471  (isolation #69)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:29 pm

@BrassHerald Would you like to comment on Volxen's post 459 above?

I'd also be interested in an explanation for your Day 1 vote on YellowSnow. There wasn't a lot of context.

In post 293, brassherald wrote:
In post 289, volxen wrote:
In post 279, brassherald wrote:I still do not like how Saint is hedging his bets by claiming he can't get a read on me, but also heavily implying he's scum reading me. I feel like his reads on my slot are fully setting up that he's going to use these to be opportunistic and join a wagon if a real one pops up.

He's my top suspect still, did not like his answer to why he voted incorrectly before, and I'm not liking this "newer player who's so intimidated" act


@Brass, frankly I'm much more concerned with the way Yellowsnow has treated your slot vs how Saint has treated your slot. Yes, Saint has been fairly non-committal on how he is reading your slot, and both Saint and Yellowsnow have brought up the fact that you are the IC. But this is Saint's very first game on site, so I could see why newb!town Saint would be intimidated to push you, even if he has gotten scum pings from you (which I'm not sure that he has). I can also see Saint being genuinely null on your slot. Yellowsnow, on the other hand, has been on this site for almost 2 months now and has multiple completed games under his belt, so it's less believable that town!Yellowsnow would put so much stock into you being IC, to the point where he thinks you should be immune to being lynched at least on day one anyways. If anything, this kind of "special treatment" towards the IC slot is something I might expect from someone in their first game. Not from someone who has multiple completed games under their belt, especially when Yellowsnow has NOT treated the IC slot like this in any of his previous towngames.

Are you concerned at all that Yellowsnow may be trying to hard pocket/buddy you?

I got in late last night and read the case and find it compelling.

VOTE: YellowSnow

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Post Post #472  (isolation #70)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:41 pm

vote count 1.19

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (==[]) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald, Roo
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (2) : xwing, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


The Day 1 mis-lynch vote looks a bit more interesting now too with the new flips added.

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Post Post #473  (isolation #71)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:53 pm

@Saint Do you have any thoughts on why BlurryX wasn't voting at the end of Day 1? To be precise, if you are town, then this vote count looks like scum paradise:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


All that BlurryX had to do was hop on your wagon to produce two town wagons, both at L-1 with just a few hours until end of day. Chaos abounds and some poor townie mislynches another townie. If he's lucky, you hammer YellowSnow, which pretty much sets you up to be a guaranteed Day 2 mislynch. Can you think of a good reason why he might not have seized that opportunity?

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Post Post #474  (isolation #72)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:58 pm

VOTE: BrassHerald

To provide added incentive for you to reply.

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Post Post #476  (isolation #73)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:35 pm

He's V/LA all the way through Saturday? Well crap.

UNVOTE:

Not much point in pressuring somebody who isn't here.

VOTE: xwing

Clearly DT did not townslip, so I'd like to know what you were thinking in post 197.

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Post Post #479  (isolation #74)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:44 am

UNVOTE:

Explain your vote Saint. There's scum out there and you could have gotten Xwing hammered. Nice sheep BTW.

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Post Post #480  (isolation #75)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:07 am

In post 477, SaintAngelDFE wrote:
In post 473, L84Dnr wrote:@Saint Do you have any thoughts on why BlurryX wasn't voting at the end of Day 1? To be precise, if you are town, then this vote count looks like scum paradise:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


All that BlurryX had to do was hop on your wagon to produce two town wagons, both at L-1 with just a few hours until end of day. Chaos abounds and some poor townie mislynches another townie. If he's lucky, you hammer YellowSnow, which pretty much sets you up to be a guaranteed Day 2 mislynch. Can you think of a good reason why he might not have seized that opportunity?


Honestly looking at blurry's voting history (or lack thereof) I'm guessing that either he thought that voting to lynch me would be seen as hopping onto a wagon - which may have been overthinking it seeing as he joined in roughly 48 hours before EOD which would have made it understandable - or he might have been trying to make a play by pushing me day 2 to guarantee a mislynch since I was/am already suspected as scum by a majority of the rest of the town.

To touch on some of the points brought up by others, I am noticing when I read back through that a lot of any Brass/DT interactions have been essentially hot potato, they mention eachother or call eachother out a little and then seem to just move on without particularly pushing. This could have also been because of DT's rather intense self-reads and (now) obvious misdirection by using knowledge none of us would be able to have due to this not being his first forum for mafia/werewolf.

I'd also like to look into the interactions between xwing and the DT/BlurryX slot? Reading back through there are little to NO interactions between the two except where xwing seemingly misread one of DT's posts and gave him a town read, at least until he was called out and claimed a slip, and then xwing was one of Blurry's earliest town leans, after which there were next to no interaction between them. Is there any reason for this outside of the heavy push for my lynch?


VOTE: xwing


Not one single original thought in your reads. Brass/DT a la Volxen and Xwing by me.

Let me give you my interpretation of Day 1. The vote count looks like scum heaven if you're town, but if you're scum then you get this bubbling pot of dread.

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


That's a lovely little distancing vote you have on Blurry.

What is Blurry going to do with that mess? His options, in order from worse to worst are:
- Nothing
- Cook up some inane excuse for a new wagon
- Hammer a townie
- Vote his scumbuddy up to L-1
- Self vote

No surprise that he opted to do nothing.

It also explains the NK on the wagon. Once Roo hammers YellowSnow, you and Blurry are left drifting out here with Xwing. If you NK him then town can't help but hit scum as long as they target the players who weren't on the wagon.

It also explain's Blurry's abrupt end to Day 2. He could have talked himself out of that corner, but who is he going to put the suspicion on? You of course. I had stated that I was willing to lynch you Day 2, so why would scum fail to argue for that?

I'd still like to hear from Xwing and Brass, but until then have one on me.

VOTE: SaintAngelDFE

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Post Post #481  (isolation #76)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:23 am

As per Volxen's dying request, which I agree with entirely:

Please do not autolynch Saint!

I'd like to hear out all perspectives.

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Post Post #487  (isolation #77)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:20 pm

In post 485, Roo wrote:Town Spew eh?

I think my place on the Blurry wagon really should speak for itself as indicating that I'm town.

At this point I'm mainly focused on lynching either Saint or Brass. I know I'm town and my read on xwing is definitely town. And I have a town lean on L84.

One other thing I've been thinking though is I do have a small suspicion of L84 with the whole way the self hammer went down. L84 puts Blurry at L-1 and makes a big emphasis of not to hammer –
In post 448, L84Dnr wrote:I could be read as typical scum hesitancy to vote, especially if Saint is his partner.

Blurry's been reluctant to say much. Let's put some real pressure on.

VOTE: Blurry

Blurry is now at L-1, so nobody else vote him.

Blurry, would you care to explain why you've been so hesitant?


And then only 9 minutes later, we get the self hammer –
In post 450, BlurryX wrote:Tough to take over for someone, but I played really poorly. Definitely never replacing into a game again.

VOTE: Blurry


Now I don't know how likely this is, obviously people being on the board at the same time could easily be chalked up to a coincidence. But I think it does at least suggest a small possibility that Blurry & L84 are partners and they ran this big gambit, thinking Blurry was going to go down anyway. So they let L84 gain town cred by putting Blurry at L-1 and then Blurry self-hammering to end all discussion.


Blurry was giving us the silent treatment, so yes, I voted him to L-1 to put some serious pressure on him. I didn't want him getting accidentally hammered, so I put a big, bold notice up. I was truly surprised when he self-hammered.

If I'm scum then that gambit was damned stoopid because we just managed to kill off our PR for no good reason. Blurry should have been able to talk his way out of that corner while casting enough suspicion on Saint to make him the Day 2 mislynch. I wasn't under suspicion then, so the early end to Day 2 doesn't help me any. Rather the opposite with me being the L-1 vote. Taking your PR from 2 votes to lynch on Day 2 for that little gain is just plain imbecilic.

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Post Post #488  (isolation #78)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:24 pm

In post 486, xwing wrote:@roo, can you kindly explain your town read on my slot please, and why scum is saint/brass? i think your theory on scum!l8 is interesting, but i think it may be a bit of a stretch..taking into consideration the interactions afterward with volxen, i think i believe l8 didnt know self-hammers were allowed..


I had read it but forgot it. I'd have voted the same regardless though. Blurry's self-hammer took me by surprise and still doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I think that he was, in part, frustrated with being thrust into what he thought was an unwinnable position. As I've said above, he really ought to have been able to talk himself out of that noose.

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Post Post #489  (isolation #79)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:35 pm

I can make weak cases for all of use being scum, myself included. They're weak though. The best that I have builds off of what Volxen posted about Brass and I can poke holes all through that. Saint is a whole other matter.

It's interesting that Volxen was NKed, but I think that means that Brass was in jail last night. Jailing Saint would only confirm as scum a player that we were likely to "auto-lynch" on Day 3 anyway, so little gain there. Jailing Saint if he's town gets you little info either, because while you avoid that mislynch your suspect pool has just gotten a whole lot murkier, assuming you live through the night. Jailing Brass resolves the prospect that the IC is scum and if he's town and you get NKed then the remaining townies are all pointed at a pretty likely suspect.

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Post Post #490  (isolation #80)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:45 pm

In post 483, xwing wrote:
In post 470, L84Dnr wrote:@Xwing
[snip]
I know that you later said this was a mistake, but at the time why did you think that DT might have townslipped?

please see post ..
also, in post i gave volxen a town read with no explanations..i suspected him to be PR but obviously i cant say it out loud..anyway he still ate the NK though..need to find if he crumbed who he will JK, as that would be a town clear..

In post 481, L84Dnr wrote:As per Volxen's dying request, which I agree with entirely:

Please do not autolynch Saint!

I'd like to hear out all perspectives.

i still dont think brass is scum..i dont have much time to reread now, will do later maybe..
i still think saint is scum though.. :)


Agreed. My reads ATM are:

Roo, Xwing: Strong town lean
Brass: Moderate town lean
Saint: Strong scum lean

I'm not saying don't lynch Saint. I'm saying don't lynch him just yet and waste Day 3. I especially want to wait until brass gets back from V/LA. Though if Saint flips green I hope that I draw the NK because my head will explode from the WIFOM trying to figure it out at MYLO/LYLO.

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Post Post #491  (isolation #81)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:03 pm

In post 484, xwing wrote:saint, brass, roo, one of these is scum..


I couldn't make a reasonable case for Roo being scum, which is why I used you as bait for my fishing trip in post 476 after Roo mentioned that Brass was V/LA. That's one of the biggest tells in Saint's vote in post 477. He's voting based on that load of horse shit that I cobbled together and which he pretty much repeated verbatim.

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Post Post #492  (isolation #82)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:10 pm

@ Saint You neglected to mention me in post 477. I expect that Roo is feeling unloved as well. What's your read on me and Roo?

While you're at it, what's your read on yourself?

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Post Post #494  (isolation #83)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:59 am

Saint, you are now at L-1

Please nobody hammer Saint just yet as I'd really like to hear from Brass.

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Post Post #495  (isolation #84)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:02 pm

I'd also like to hear from Saint. His profile shows that he was last on late last night, so he's actively lurking.

You aren't helping yourself here Saint. If you're really town then get in here and help prevent your mislynch.

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Post Post #502  (isolation #85)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:48 pm

In post 500, Roo wrote:I say go for the hammer. Saint is the most logical scum. Is there really anything brass can say at this point to move him to being the primary suspicion?

It’s time to end this game, Saint is scum.


I don't expect Brass to say anything that will move the suspicion onto him. He might have insights into others though.

I agree that Saint is most likely scum, but in the unlikely event that he flips green I don't want to have wasted a chance to get more information on Day 3. If this game goes to Day 4 it's going to be a rough one and we'll need all the info we can get. We have lots of time to wait for Brass to chime in with his thoughts.

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Post Post #503  (isolation #86)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:56 pm

@The Worst

If Saint doesn't respond to his prod then it'd be crappy to sub some poor bugger into his slot. I humbly suggest that we extend his deadline until Brass can chip in. If Saint hasn't made a peep by that point then I'm not thinking there will be a need to fill his slot.

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Post Post #507  (isolation #87)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:58 pm

In post 505, SaintAngelDFE wrote:My scum lean is still xwing. People were making reads based on the interactions between brass and DT, but nobody mentioned the fact that outside of the single post from xwing there have been maybe two or three posts between the two slots. To me, this looks like a scum v scum distancing done to the extreme. I'd like to look deeper into this, but it's not looking like I'll be able to stay off the noose long enough to see it through.
I have no scum reads from Roo or L8, at this point they're both still hunting past me while xwing has been b-lining for my lynch since d1.


Points for original reasoning in this read, but I'll have to deduct them again for being used against you more effectively than against Xwing. Looking through your ISO I can't find a single post where you actually speak to DT or Blurry. Did I miss one?

You voted DT in Post 163, but never actually say anything to him. Then in Post 310 you upgrade your read on him to "null/town", but again never speak to him. Despite that improved reading, your vote remains on his slot even after Blurry replaces him.

Can you explain why you were voting to lynch somebody that you were reading "null/town" even after they had been replaced by a new player?

While you're at it, can you explain why we should lynch Xwing for only a few interactions with DT/Blurry when you don't seem to have had any?

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Post Post #509  (isolation #88)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:10 pm

@Brass

What's your take on Saint?

Assuming Saint flips green, what's your take on everybody else?

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Post Post #512  (isolation #89)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:34 pm

In post 510, Roo wrote:Waiting for Brass to get back. I feel like we should’ve just lynched Saint.


I know, it's tempting. I'd just like the IC's perspective before we lynch Saint.

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Post Post #522  (isolation #90)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:35 pm

Thanks for a great game TW! Not your fault that players kept dropping off the face of the planet. Replacing at this incredibly late stage would have been very difficult and I agree entirely with X-wing's hammer. Cleanest way to take care of the problem since Saint's goose was pretty thoroughly cooked.

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Post Post #523  (isolation #91)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:41 pm

And thanks to everybody else for a good game. It's nice to play one where there's no personal nastiness tossed about.

Would anybody with some experience like to critique the play? I only have a few basic comments:

- Shy scum are dead scum. Lurking in the shadows will get you lynched.

- Playing anti-wincon will get you mislynched. It's important for everybody to play to their wincon in order to have a good game, town and scum both.

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Post Post #525  (isolation #92)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:13 pm

Thanx. I was actually playing obvtown in hopes of drawing the NK away from our PRs. A shame that didn't work better. I'd be interested to hear from the Mafia players if they got lucky or if something else gave our PRs away.

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Post Post #529  (isolation #93)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:18 pm

Thanx X-wing. You played a great town game too.

Scum-fishing is tricky and you frequently won't get a nibble but it's a very strong tell when you do. If you think you know who your target is look at their most recent reads and pick a weak town lean. If they're looking for a wagon to pounce on they might just bite.

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Post Post #530  (isolation #94)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:38 pm

@Saint Don't sweat the nerves. I drew scum my second Mafia game and died that way. You had a hard game what with DT vanishing.

The best advice that I've heard for NKs is "Kill whoever you want." NKA is notoriously difficult because you don't even know whose head you're trying to get into, so unless there's a really obvious pattern over several nights it's very tricky. You should still do an NKA but the VCA is frequently more damning.

One interesting tell that you'll want to work on and look for in others is that scum rarely talk to scum. Partly that's because they're talking in private and partly that's because they know who they are and don't want to be seen together. Distancing and even bussing are common, but scum buddying scum is rare. So one easy way to scum hunt is to just look through the ISOs and see who isn't talking to who. It's especially effective once one player has flipped red.

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Post Post #536  (isolation #95)  » Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:59 pm

By that standard, town would be well-advised to lynch me Day 1. I'm playing on another site that's faster paced (24 hour Day and Night phases) and I've drawn scum 3 of my 5 games, so 50/50 odds.


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