Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

[brassherald]

Oh, hey, I'm in this game and have not been replaced despite having no internet last week at all.

I'll read tomorrow.

[brassherald]

Oh, hey, I barely missed anything, Day 1 just started!

Hardclaiming flying spaghetti monster.

VOTE: Egix

[brassherald]

I know I said I'd be reading today, but I woke up with a stomach bug, and I'll leave it at that. I'll be active for reals tomorrow, pinkie promise.

[brassherald]

Should I claim?

Why would you claim?

[brassherald]

You do realize there's nothing to claim but Vanilla townie here, right Vedith?

Brb watching Nintendo Direct.

Seer.

[brassherald]

controversial opinion time: the game is dead because most of you tried to replace RVS with pre-game antics, which isn't reliable and shouldn't be the basis for reads

gohs dang this post is worthlesss
VOTE: mcqueen

Is a worthless post really worthy of a scum read, though?

[brassherald]

Follow up on my alleged catch up. Pre Day 1 posts seem super boring, and I'm not going to read them.

Fuck it!

[brassherald]

In other news, I BLOODY HATE THE HYDRA (and to a lesser degree Bambi) for the mess they made this thread turn into. By the time I was on page 5 I was considering making a new account called Almost100 because of you two. (or rather, you FIVE).

Is bloody hating the Hydra different from just hating the Hydra, or are they about the same? I need to know for cultural differences. Also, hi A50, happy Valentine's Day.

[brassherald]

And on that note... brass is doing nothing this game.. not the brass I know and like.
Plus wtf is this:

Ohh... I don't know why you like me, but I like you, too.

And a post.

[brassherald]

Also, bujaber, buddy. Walls suck. Can you split these into smaller posts so I can trick myself into reading all of it?

[brassherald]

Auro, too. Let's pretend there is a character limit for everyone!

[brassherald]

As far as I'm concerned this is still pretty early in the game because I'm sure as hell not reading before day 1 where it seems like Bambi fought with the Hydra from what I hear. And not a good fight, like the one at the end of Rocky. A fight like in The Last Airbender which it turns out is not 16 hours long, just boring.

[brassherald]

Also, bujaber, buddy. Walls suck. Can you split these into smaller posts so I can trick myself into reading all of it?

Auro, too. Let's pretend there is a character limit for everyone!

Nah, I think walls rock, and I'm gonna continue
If you have problems with any specific points of my walls, feel free to debate.
If you feel I'm empty-posting and clogging the thread, feel free to point it out.

Legitimately just do not like reading walls. I don't think they are scum indicative but it's worth a shot to try to avoid reading things I do not want to read.

[brassherald]

lol ive heard that back in tha'day you were expected to post walls

Back in the day, people also died from polio because there was no vaccine.

[brassherald]

I'm hunting scums. But you guys ended the day suddenly and this game started when I was out of town. Like, real life shit happens. Anyway.

VOTE: Bambi

I don't like this slot for town

[brassherald]

That hammer was too quick for town. I mean, day 1 had barely started. And, as said, I'm not going to fucking read pregame shit.

[brassherald]

How did you know you didn't lynch seer, Bambi?

[brassherald]

How did you know you didn't lynch seer, Bambi?

Dislike this question.
You get 3

Why? Because I'm asking about a hammer that came without a claim?

[brassherald]

No, it's calling out a scummy fucking move you idiot. You don't lynch someone without a damn claim when there's a good damned town PR out there. Like are you really this goddamn dense that you can't think it out on your own? Do I need to explain to you what a fucking PR is as well?

Damn, use your brain for two seconds

[brassherald]

How did you know you didn't lynch seer, Bambi?

because clem claimed vt?

He did?

[brassherald]

I did read day 1 there's this thing called memory. I don't have a perfect one.

Like, legitimately, just lynch me if scum reads are going to be based on my memory capacity because I sure as shit am going to forget something else that happens this game.

[brassherald]

This shitty game isn't even fun because you all skipped the RVS stage. Legitimately, expect me to meet your anti-fun attitudes with this much venom until I die because fuck you all for making this game miserable

[brassherald]

Clem was legitimately the only player who was actually having an ounce of fun, from what I can tell. I like having fun. I don't like playing games that are not fun. Like, this game is just terrible. You don't start playing before the start of day one and clog the fucking thread up with like 15 pages while not everyone has confirmed. It's just absurd then for the others who wanted to play a fun game, then show up and have to slog through all this with no opportunity to participate in anything resembling fun.

[brassherald]

This shitty game isn't even fun because you all skipped the RVS stage. Legitimately, expect me to meet your anti-fun attitudes with this much venom until I die because fuck you all for making this game miserable

Again, AtE is NAI for me.

I don't give a shit if these are Appeals to Emotions, maybe you guys could just like think about enjoying a game rather than doing this bullshit. I mean, why do people even play if they plan to make this so miserable?

[brassherald]

This shitty game isn't even fun because you all skipped the RVS stage. Legitimately, expect me to meet your anti-fun attitudes with this much venom until I die because fuck you all for making this game miserable

???

THIS GAME IS NOT FUN. Almost50 was exactly right when he replaced in.

Just lynch me, because I sure as hell don't give a shit about this game, and I'm not going to replace out for some schmuck to be subjected to this.

[brassherald]

Again, AtE is NAI

Then stop fucking saying it! I know no one gives a shit about what I'm saying but I'm still going to yell at you all for making this a bad game.

[brassherald]

brass can you chill though
like what we didnt say
"eggggg i cant peleive you lynched me last game vote: fifjfiejfijad,zvndsa" and now we are no fun that what are you even getting at what
\we had a conversation with bambi like is that such a crime

No.

[brassherald]

Cool. VOTE: No Lynch

[brassherald]

You assume the lynch is a WW. I have no confidence that the player list will actually find a WW here

[brassherald]

Does a WW really push a kill on someone scum reading them? I feel like that's just obvious. Personally, I'd rather take on the 1v1 than making it that obvious.

Then again I don't know McQueen as a player. If he were Steve McQueen, he'd be a man's man, though.

[brassherald]

Yes, I'd agree with the rest, but I feel NK analysis is pretty important, personally.

[brassherald]

I'd also say that chances are WWs are probably people not fully familiar with GL, in general. I know he was a strong town voice yesterday, but, in multiball, you can probably get someone that proficient at scum lynched based on pure paranoia.

Dude is absurdly good at scum and I hate it. (Love you, GL)

[brassherald]

Besides, if you're agreeing with my case on McQueen, vote there please.

VOTE: McQueen

Sure.

By the way, I think the town block is Auro, A50, BuJaber and one other slot to be named later.

[brassherald]

Obviously, I'm town in my own town block.

[brassherald]

I think town hunting may be the strat here, because I sure as hell do not know how to figure out if the scums are mafia or WW, and associatives are out the window until one of them flips.

[brassherald]

I think town hunting may be the strat here, because I sure as hell do not know how to figure out if the scums are mafia or WW, and associatives are out the window until one of them flips.

Unless we get a Boggart and then set it on everyone and see which person makes it turn into the moon. For me, it would be like a giant lobster. Lobsters are terrifying.

[brassherald]

Town
{Vedith}
{Hydra, BuJaber}
{Bambi, BrassHerald}
{A50, Egix}
{RosterFoster}
{McQueen}
Scum

Yeah, I'm not doing this.

I believe someone will remember me bitching about these in the past, and my refusal to make one still stands.

[brassherald]

Let's just put this out here, if I wasn't voting McQueen right now, I'd be all in on Egix again.

[brassherald]

@Auro: Funny that you'd say GL was shot for his reads and then decide you want to lynch mcqueen when GL's last post was:

wolves I say take a shot in {brassherald/foster/bambi} if they're not on your team and you're trying to thin down Mafia

But, this is his guess for a mafia team. McQueen not being on the list helps the case, buddaroo!

[brassherald]

A;sp. funny that you've claimed Mafia

at least four times now

and nobody commented on it. The last was when you said ynching wolves is a 1/3 chance when (from a town PoV) it should be 2/9 (excluding your own slot). From a Mafia PoV though it is 2/7 indeed (close enough) and if you have identified the Seer

it is indeed

2/6 = 1/3

When did he claim Mafia?

[brassherald]

UNVOTE:
Now I'm just confused

[brassherald]

Activity is a totally valid way to read someone.

[brassherald]

@BuJ, Brass: Any comment on the ongoing debate? If it looks like everyone's not seeing what I am, I'll listen and back down for a bit.

My comment of being really confused stands.

I feel like I need A50 to clarify a bit more and really fill in some of the lines a bit more for me, like I asked before.

[brassherald]

I feel like I need A50 to clarify a bit more

I can't clarify unless you tell me exactly what you need me to clarify

Where did Auro make claims of being Mafia?

[brassherald]

I don't want just a "no mislynch", Almost50 - I want a wolf lynch specifically

I want that too, but the risk/gain ratio is too high for me to take. If we KNEW someone to be a WW we would have lynched them. But we don't, so we can't risk it

at this game status

.

It would be alright to take that risk if we had lynched Mafia yesterday. It would have been OK if WWs shot Mafia yesterday. And it would have been acceptable if the game had started with 13 players instead of 12.

I feel this, even as a player willing to take risks, I do try to calculate my risks once in a while.

[brassherald]

So, obviously what's best is if we lynch a WW, followed by NO LYNCH, followed by lynching a Mafioso, and the worst thing is -naturally- to mislynch a townie.

Your push on WWs in particular is also a Mafia claim.

By your logic, WW>NL>Mafia lynch.
I'm saying WW>NL, let's wolfhunt.
I'm town; if I'm opposed to a No Lynch, and WW lynch is superior but Mafia lynch is inferior, obviously I would be particular about a WW push, right?

Okay, I think I've got this figured out, assuming this is TvT, which I believe it is.

1) Both of you agree a WW lynch is best.
2) Both agree a No lynch is the second best option
3) Auro has done some voodoo math that I don't get involved in to say he's got a 1/3 chance to be right
4) A50 disagrees with the math, probably using some wiccan math which I don't understand
5) Auro is confident that McQueen is WW
6) A50 is not.

I think this just comes down to the voodoo math versus the wiccan math.

[brassherald]

1- Avoiding Bambi (a claimed Mafia if we choose to believe that). The fact that he is excluding Bambi from being a WW and accepting his claim as Mafia is reason enough to think they're both Mafia.

There's ONLY ONE other possibility, which is Bambi+Auro IS the WW team, but I don't see that as probable, because Bambi is a much better player than to do this and expose the whole team. I thus believe him to be Mafia indeed, and Auro is certainly on his team.

Isn't this you doing the same thing you are saying he's doing?

[brassherald]

Auro has done some voodoo math that I don't get involved in to say he's got a 1/3 chance to be right

It's not voodoo math.

1. Bambi's claimed Mafia
2. Bambi wouldn't bus his partner in this situation cause it's a really, really really stupid strategy for Mafia
3. That brings the lynch pool to 7; a seer would claim at L-1 so brings it to 6
4. 2 wolves; so 2/6 = 1/3 chances of hitting a wolf.

I don't disagree with A50's math, I disagree on his conclusions from the math. His math basically says 1/3 chance of 5-2-2 tomorrow and 2/3 chance of 4-3-2 tomorrow, and there's a greater chance of regaining town majority than if we lynch; my counter-argument is that a majority doesn't make sense with both wolves alive and isn't worth sacrificing a chance to lynch wolves for.

But, we don't need Bambi to bus a partner to get a lynch on the partner?

[brassherald]

Oh, shit, I just realized why my math has not been working out at all. I was reading the living players as the starting player list.

Still, Bambi is not needed to kill Mafia.

But, we don't need Bambi to bus a partner to get a lynch on the partner?

Bambi gave the a-OK to lynch McQueen.
I was expecting him to refuse and continue tunnelling the hydra (or) argue in favor of a no lynch if McQueen was Mafia.

Do you think Bambi would so readily bus his buddy?
We don't need Bambi to bus his partner; but that he readily voted is indicative that the partner isn't Mafia -> leading to the 1/3 number.

I think it is more likely to be indicative that they are not partnered, but I can think of reasons for her to vote there if they were mafia partners. It could be to throw off Vote Count Analysis later, counting on our losing interest in an early Day 2 lynch and moving on to someone else, etc. I'm going to give you more than 50% that they are not aligned, but its not impossible.

[brassherald]

Yeah, we are off odds right now. I want an odd number.

I don't want to hammer a no lynch by mistake, how we looking on that front?

[brassherald]

I think it is more likely to be indicative that they are not partnered, but I can think of reasons for her to vote there if they were mafia partners. It could be to throw off Vote Count Analysis later, counting on our losing interest in an early Day 2 lynch and moving on to someone else, etc. I'm going to give you more than 50% that they are not aligned, but its not impossible.

1 Mafia dead, 1 Mafia claimed (guaranteed lynch), 1 remaining.
With both wolves remaining with their NKs.
It's a surefire way to lose as Mafia.

IF the lynch goes through.

[brassherald]

I'm honestly not sure why evens are bad anymore, but I know people keep telling me they are, so I like things to be not bad.

[brassherald]

1- Avoiding Bambi (a claimed Mafia if we choose to believe that). The fact that he is excluding Bambi from being a WW and accepting his claim as Mafia is reason enough to think they're both Mafia.

There's ONLY ONE other possibility, which is Bambi+Auro IS the WW team, but I don't see that as probable, because Bambi is a much better player than to do this and expose the whole team. I thus believe him to be Mafia indeed, and Auro is certainly on his team.

Isn't this you doing the same thing you are saying he's doing?

A50, can I get your response to this, please.

[brassherald]

All is going according to plan. And by that, I mean absolutely no plan.

Welcome too Anarchy babies! Population: Soon to be 8.

Is the town named Anarchy, and you are calling us all baby, or is the town called Anarchy babies?

[brassherald]

1- Avoiding Bambi (a claimed Mafia if we choose to believe that). The fact that he is excluding Bambi from being a WW and accepting his claim as Mafia is reason enough to think they're both Mafia.

There's ONLY ONE other possibility, which is Bambi+Auro IS the WW team, but I don't see that as probable, because Bambi is a much better player than to do this and expose the whole team. I thus believe him to be Mafia indeed, and Auro is certainly on his team.

Isn't this you doing the same thing you are saying he's doing?

A50, can I get your response to this, please.

No. I am explicitly advocating a NO LYNCH, GDI. He is PUSHING FOR A LYNCH, yet not wanting to consider Bambi as a WW, thus KNOWS Bambi to be MAFIA

Okay.

[brassherald]

A seer claim automatically gets killed by WWs at night, Seer is their biggest threat.

[brassherald]

If he's WW that claims Seer, the real Seer doesn't CC, tries to find his partner, and outs tomorrow. If he's Mafia who claims Seer, he's 100% dead tonight.

If he claims seer, he gives last night's results, and we'll find out whether he's telling the truth tomorrow.

[brassherald]

In all this, my shaky town block has crumbled a bit, but yeah, I'd put more faith in my A50 TR than my Auro when push comes to shove.

[brassherald]

A mafia lynch also greatly benefits the WWs here, and even if we assume Bambi is really mafia, I'm getting a WIFOM vibe from her.

[brassherald]

Apparently the WWs pool is thinning down for the Seer if they're following closely (and I hope they are). Please do NOT respond to this post.

WW would be fighting FOR the No Lynch - not against - no?

Or, they would argue for a lynch of ANYONE THAT IS NOT THEM!

[brassherald]

A mafia lynch also greatly benefits the WWs here, and even if we assume Bambi is really mafia, I'm getting a WIFOM vibe from her.

McQueen I strongly think is wolf. Jay aside.

I feel like this morning you were saying Jay was the best reason that McQueen was WW.

[brassherald]

I think the best thing for town today is to lynch mafia.

Best thing is to lynch Werewolf. Lynching mafia means it's unlikely (unlikelier than a no lynch - I can explain why if you want) there's a town majority tomorrow, which is important because in a 4-2-2 situation mafia may legitimately elect to lynch town, and then the game is over for us). I know it seems counterintuitive, but 4-3-2 is a *better* possible situation than 4-2-2 for two reasons:

-It's less likely to happen (4-3-2 or 4-2-2 are worst possible outcomes IMO from either play).
-From 4-2-2 we either end up in 5p lylo with no cop and potentially just seer as clear which is shit ( 3-2-0. I would imagine we have almost 0 chance of winning that), 2-1-1 which is better but still not great, or we lose. And the two not-lose scenarios are somewhat Grim. In 4-3-2 the extra maf means that 4-1-2 is possible, and also I'm not convinced 3-2-2 is worse than 3-2-0.

Sorry if it's a bit confusing, but I firmly believe that we should no lynch.

Can we clarify whether the last number always indicates the mafia in your sets?

[brassherald]

Can you walk me through the scenarios you are calling auto - lose because I'm not seeing it? WW would never intentionally shoot town if it will give mafia the win. I'm not sure how 4-2-2 + mislynch = town loss.

Well, then we end up with 3-2-2, 4 votes needed to lynch.

Scenarios are a successful town motivated lynch here, by the way.

So, all town needs to be on the same page PLUS, one faction needs to help us.

Assuming a correct lynch after that, we end up going into the night with 3-1-2.

Scenario 1: A Mafia gets killed 3-1-1, 3 needed to lynch. Need town all on the same page to lynch correctly.

Scenario 1A: We lynch last WW, we end up with 3-0-1, no NK. 25% chance to hit the mafia, moves up to 33.33333% after a mislynch.

Scenario 1A is already not an autoloss, so, I disagree on that number already.

Scenario 1B: We lynch the last Mafia. 3-1-0. Wake up with 2-1-0 so, 33.333333% chance to win.

Okay, stopping here with the butterfly effect shit. I think finding the WW team is better for us.

[brassherald]

Okay, stopping here with the butterfly effect shit. I think finding the WW team is better for us.

This just circles back to BuJaber saying a Mafia lynch is best today.

[brassherald]

4-2-2 is a day start ratio, so 3-2-2 cannot be day again unless no lynch is hammerred.

Oh, good call. I messed up.

I don't think I'm going to try my hand at being Dr. Strange again.

Hard claiming no time stone.

[brassherald]

4-2-2 is a day start ratio, so 3-2-2 cannot be day again unless no lynch is hammerred.

Oh, good call. I messed up.

I don't think I'm going to try my hand at being Dr. Strange again.

Hard claiming no time stone.

Spoilers if you have not seen Infinity War, I guess.

[brassherald]

And my axe!

VOTE: No lynch

[brassherald]

And this no lynch dude didnt even claim... SMH

[brassherald]

I find the no lynch vote from Auro strange after he said he was willing to vote if town was going to do it. I mean, as far as I can tell, he has been pretty hard core for BuJaber as his biggest TR, and BuJaber is not for it right now. (I fully realize this is irrelevant to whether it actually happens right now.)

Anyway, it's weird. I do think a good town block is Me+Roster+A50+Vedith+BuJ... that vote just pushes Auro way out moreso than the disagreement beforehand.

I think lynch order of Egix>McQueen>Auro>Bambi>Whoever's that last slot wins the game.

[brassherald]

I think lynch order of Egix>McQueen>Auro>Bambi>Whoever's that last slot wins the game.

Maybe move the hydra slot up...

I just remembered who the last slot was, by the way.

[brassherald]

By the way, I think the town block is Auro, A50, BuJaber and one other slot to be named later

The slot to be named later at this time was between Vedith and Roster, by the way, so, with the removal of my Auro trust, so comes an easier town block for me.

Unrelated, but I always like in baseball when someone is traded for a player to be named later, then ends up being that player to be named later. It's funny.

[brassherald]

@Brass: What's the motivation behind me suddenly changing my mind?

It would certainly curb discussion.

[brassherald]

I mean, as it is, most people have not posted anything that would be seen as crumbing a Seer result, so, take away their legitimate chance to do that, if the Seer hasn't already done it.

[brassherald]

Then, if WW's hit Seer tonight, we don't get Seer results at all unless it's me or you, Auro.

[brassherald]

I mean, as it is, most people have not posted anything that would be seen as crumbing a Seer result, so, take away their legitimate chance to do that, if the Seer hasn't already done it.

I was the first to suggest it and also do it, and you blatantly refused to do it though?

No, I refused to do a tiered read list. If I flip Seer, everyone would know my result would be on Egix from me saying that he would be my target multiple times.

[brassherald]

And if "curbing discussion" was my motivation, I would've blindly agreed to a NL long ago instead of... Guess what, discuss it like crazy and ask everyone for their opinions and what not.

You asked for discussions on no lynching and discussions on McQueen, optimally, we would have decided on a no lynch and whoever hammers waits until the end of day to discuss a plan as town.

[brassherald]

For the record, Tiered read lists are stupid and I will not do them.

[brassherald]

We can still do the hypo. You're here, BuJ posted, Bambi posted.

I'm not saying we can't, I'm just saying that cutting off discussion would be my best guess for motivation.

I have been wrong once or twice before with reads, so, it's nothing personal, just what I'm thinking.

[brassherald]

Half of us doing it in twilight defeats the purpose imo

I stand by my saying I already did mine yesterday (as in real world yesterday) anyway, and everyone should be able to figure it out.

[brassherald]

Every single one of them except roster and -maybe- Auro.

I thought what we had was more than just games.

[brassherald]

VOTE: Egix

Can we do this one, already?

[brassherald]

just a reminder that we are at 4t/3m/2w
we no longer have the majority. I say we lynch Bambi just to get a scum out of the way

We have plurality, though. Also we didn't have majority yesterday.

[brassherald]

@Bambi after twilight yesterday, I'm surprised you aren't pushing A50 anything change?

@Egix I'm just super attractive in green and everyone knows it.

[brassherald]

Also, my town block from yesterday still stands, by the way.

[brassherald]

@Brass: I don't care for your townblock much ATM, I want to lynch a wolf - I've described why McQueen is a better lynch than Egix and why McQueen is prob not Mafia. Comments?

You don't like the town block because you aren't in it.

Also, McQueen is not in the town block, but since the last day there have been changes in how I view him that suggest he may just be bad at being town which I cannot discuss further.

[brassherald]

Being bad at town =/= refusing to participate.

Evidence suggests otherwise.

[brassherald]

Being bad at town =/= refusing to participate.

Evidence suggests otherwise.

Is this evidence you cannot provide, or a general observation? If it's the latter I'll disagree.

The former.

[brassherald]

I would like to point out that at this point the WWs really need to work with town. The mafia will soon have majority otherwise. Like, WWs need to stop being stupid and help the town to have a chance to win

[brassherald]

What I'm saying is that WWs, even if seer outs today, you need to shoot mafia 100% to win. I hate instructing scum factions this way, but I want to make sure the WWs know that they will lose if they kill town tonight

[brassherald]

Oh, okay - you want to lynch a wolf and have the other shoot mafia tonight. Yeah, that's optimal.

Exactly.

[brassherald]

In fact, I'm going to make this statement to whomever the Seer is, I would encourage you to out yourself even if you have two innos.

I really think that, at this time, we at least lynch outside of the Seer innos if that's the case. If we can hit WW today, the other WW basically has to act as a Town Vig or have no chance at all of winning, killing the Seer would just seal WW's fate after that because the mafia will control the lynch and just try to lynch the other WW. I want a WW acting as town Vig and helping us out.

I'm not going to blow smoke up the WW's asses and say I'm going to let them win, but the priority will become finding mafia if they will work with town, and maybe the WW can dodge the Seer and avoid wolfreads enough to eke out a win.

[brassherald]

And I end this little plea of how I believe town should win by saying that in a long line of my crazy overthinking theories in mafia games, this may be the first actual good plan I have.

[brassherald]

Is the hydra's membership public at all?

If not, hydra, have I played with any of your heads in the past. You don't need to claim whether I have or not, but I am trying to sort something out in my head before I talk about it out loud so that it makes a little bit of sense.

[brassherald]

I also want to hear more thoughts on my proposal to try to leash a werewolf. Preferably from the entire player list.

[brassherald]

If you're a wolf though, feel free to tell me whenever

If I were a WW, I'd keep my mouth shut and would have either hit Seer or mafia by now.

The Vedith kill was just terrible, by the way, WWs.

[brassherald]

UNVOTE:

Right now, I am feeling as if I need to reconsider my town block, town block has to be seer and now two of three have claimed not Seer, essentially and I spewed not seer already. So, I'm not sure I am so confident in my reads to assure that BuJaber ends up not only being last town, but also Seer.

I'm good, but not that good.

[brassherald]

I just checked for crumbs on Seer, conclusion: Damn the WWs have been playing it wrong trying to hunt for the Seer rather than hit the mafia. This is fucking impossible.

[brassherald]

I might have said that

[brassherald]

VOTE: Applejacks

[brassherald]

I am shocked that anyone would want my excellent jokes to be quashed, as well.











I is funny.

[brassherald]

And attractive.

[brassherald]

In fact, I'm going to make this statement to whomever the Seer is, I would encourage you to out yourself even if you have two innos.

I really think that, at this time, we at least lynch outside of the Seer innos if that's the case. If we can hit WW today, the other WW basically has to act as a Town Vig or have no chance at all of winning, killing the Seer would just seal WW's fate after that because the mafia will control the lynch and just try to lynch the other WW. I want a WW acting as town Vig and helping us out.

I'm not going to blow smoke up the WW's asses and say I'm going to let them win, but the priority will become finding mafia if they will work with town, and maybe the WW can dodge the Seer and avoid wolfreads enough to eke out a win.

Why would WW me ever make this post?

[brassherald]

Everyone's pretty much lost without me, I could probably eke out a win as scum letting you dudes be lost.

[brassherald]

All hail brass, lord and savior of MS.

[brassherald]

I swear to dog if someone uses this as a reason to scum read us

ARE YOU A DOG?

[brassherald]

I feel like this game is going to be kind of dead until we get a replacement for the car

[brassherald]

BuJ what are your reads like right now? Got a town block or anything?

[brassherald]

I don't love that BuJs read list has two people listed as town and both have claimed not seer, essentially

[brassherald]

Investigations and results?

[brassherald]

but WW is definitely gonna shoot me

If WW shoots you, they lose.

[brassherald]

Unless we lynch mafia today.

[brassherald]

I don't know where my vote is right now, but I still think we have 2 non WWs, we should lynch a WW.

VOTE: Egix

[brassherald]

That only works if A50 is WW, not mafia. What solid proof do we have of that?

[brassherald]

^Hi, Egix is still not convinced I'm town with no reasoning.

That post comes from town 0% of the time. It's bad.

[brassherald]

^Hi, Egix is still not convinced I'm town with no reasoning.

That post comes from town 0% of the time. It's bad.

Mafia keeping lynch options open.

Exactly.

[brassherald]

This lynch isn't happening before I figure out who's a better WW option, but I want to keep my vote on anti-town right now while I try to reason out WW options myself.

Maybe tonight I'll really do a deep dive, since my girlfriend is taking the night to study.

[brassherald]

I think a WW lynch is optimal, but I sure would rather lynch a mafia member than a town member.

[brassherald]

What if it's Scum Reading and Auro because that gave me real SvS vibes.

Ugh... I hate that this is actually the right move

VOTE: scum reading

[brassherald]

5 being a majority is how counting works...

[brassherald]

5 being a majority is how counting works...

dont be an ass

I can't help it.

[brassherald]

What if it's Scum Reading and Auro because that gave me real SvS vibes.

Ugh... I hate that this is actually the right move

VOTE: scum reading

If you get SvS vibes, what roles do you assign to each person? Me being ww and him mafia?

Both WW.

I'm saying that it looked staged. Like if we lynch one, we find a WW and need to go "Hey, they had this fight, why would they both be WW?"

But, it seems fake to me.

[brassherald]

Yes.

[brassherald]

what is sr at?

3, I think?

I'm not positive.

[brassherald]

What if it's Scum Reading and Auro because that gave me real SvS vibes.

Ugh... I hate that this is actually the right move

VOTE: scum reading

If you get SvS vibes, what roles do you assign to each person? Me being ww and him mafia?

Both WW.

I'm saying that it looked staged. Like if we lynch one, we find a WW and need to go "Hey, they had this fight, why would they both be WW?"

But, it seems fake to me.

This is going at a next level of reasoning behind your voting. Brass could be scum as well actually. Scum thrive in possibility, town in probability. You making this whole case against me seems too much of a desperate attempt to justify your vote. But if you believe it’s a werewolf on werewolf, you’d be alright with lynching Auro as well, right? Except you’re not.

You have more votes on you, this is the path of least resistance.

Because 2>1.

[brassherald]

This is SR from what I can recall: "You should all vote between me and Auro"
"Brass believes Egix is mafia but wants to lynch WW, hmmm... let me shade this shit"
"Brass should be okay with voting Auro. He must be scum"

Remember when I said a post never comes from town?

I just don't see this reasoning coming from town.

[brassherald]

Yeah, 2 more votes. Current vc on me: Auro, Egix, Brass.

Also, anyone notice the inconsistency in what Brass believes? Literally like 10 posts earlier he said “we should go for ww” and then he votes egix and now he says it’s a ww on ww scumtheatre between me and Auro and he’s completely fine with Egix being on my wagon. Funny. It’s not like town could win in any situation, either, but with this vote, you’re making your win rate at a solid 0%

Okay, let me walk you through this.

Egix is mafia.

Mafia needs to lynch the WWs.

I am voting you because I believe you are WW.

multiball makes strange bedfellows. I assume that when we need 5 votes and there are only 4 town, I'm going to have to vote with some scum faction people because that's just how math works.

[brassherald]

Firstly, you said egix is werewolf, not mafia.

Lolwut?

I don't remember saying that at all during this day phase.

[brassherald]

Mostly because I haven't believed that at all during the day phase.

[brassherald]

?? Why is the thread still open??
Also this dialogue between scum reading and Auro looks forced. I wouldn't e surprised if it turns out they were both of the same faction.

I said this before the lynch.

Copy monkey.

[brassherald]

SR is actually right here, very wonky reasoning on Brass' part
It's absurd to think I'd bus my WW partner on D2 when no lynch was a clearly better alternative and push the gamestate to 5-3-1 which is prob loss even if I reap towncred from it.

Brass' push on Egix because Egix isn't townreading him yet is also not impressive here.

It's not because I'm not townreading him - it's because I didn't say my reasoning.

No, it's because you have made several posts that come from town 0% of the time.

[brassherald]

?? Why is the thread still open??
Also this dialogue between scum reading and Auro looks forced. I wouldn't e surprised if it turns out they were both of the same faction.

I said this before the lynch.

Copy monkey.

He knows.
Also

That was a great joke. DON'T YOU FACEPALM MY HILARITY!

[brassherald]

I just think that scum reading has made a few posts that look like it's Scum Theatre's regional presentation of Oklahoma!

(I hate Oklahoma, for the record).

[brassherald]

The musical, I'm ambivalent about the state.

[brassherald]

As a rule of thumb, I don't participate in twilight on principal, but I also don't want to get prodded and do not recall if I posted yesterday.

So, don't prod me Gamma!

[brassherald]

As a rule of thumb, I don't participate in twilight on principal, but I also don't want to get prodded and do not recall if I posted yesterday.

So, don't prod me Gamma!

Principle, sorry.

Not on principal, that would be silly.

[brassherald]

I have no night actions, so, I would agree to accelerated night.

[brassherald]

I have no night actions, so, I would agree to accelerated night.

Trying to get towncred at this stage of the game, damn

The seer literally confirmed that I'm not WW, there is no way I have a night action.

[brassherald]

Like, legit, three people in this game have Night actions, Seer and wolves.

Seer finds wolf or not wolf.

The seer got not wolf on me.

How the fuck am I claiming town cred by just stating the obvious that, no matter what, I have no night action?

[brassherald]

There's a weird epidemic of people replacing in and not bothering to read the setup in multiball games where only one kill occurs per night. It's super distressing to me.

[brassherald]

Reminder, if this is not a mafia lynch, the WWs lose if they do not hit mafia. No matter what, since they will control the lynch for the rest of the game if they have all 3 tomorrow.

[brassherald]

And also, think long-term. Tonight's kill is prob seer since if seer finds the other Wolf they're not winning; and tomorrow we are lynching mafia (Bambi's the safest lynch prolly) regardless of whether we know the final wolf solve. So if SR is wolf that brings it to 3-2-1 going into the night.

In what world do you think killing seer and giving a lynch that absolutely needs a mafia on it a win to the WW?

If we wake up with 3-2-1, the mafia has won.

[brassherald]

Legitimately, if we wake up with 3-2-1, I am not voting, ever.

[brassherald]

How can they win if it's 3-1-1?

[brassherald]

3 votes to lynch.

Mafia wins.

[brassherald]

This is legitimately the most anti-town thing you have said.

WWs, you missed your goddamn chance to kill the Seer.

[brassherald]

I'm trying to wrestle control back to the town by guiding the WWs to actually be smart.

[brassherald]

Auro's current talk makes me think Bambi might actually be town.

I'm kind of thinking Auro's shit here might be mafia indicative.

[brassherald]

Like, legit, three people in this game have Night actions, Seer and wolves.

Seer finds wolf or not wolf.

The seer got not wolf on me.

How the fuck am I claiming town cred by just stating the obvious that, no matter what, I have no night action?

You’re mafia, maf has no night action, that’s right, they have a PT, but you said that to try and regain credibility. Seer also doesn’t see maf.

Sure, because I can sit here arguing the only pro town version of these events rather than being like "Yeah, WWs should kill seer so mafia has an auto win"

Like, can you think?

[brassherald]

Can some other townie back me up on basic math, please?

[brassherald]

Because, 3-1-1 means that, even if the Mafia does not hit WW with the lynch tomorrow, the WW then hits 2-1 the next day with 2 votes to lynch.

3-1-1 is auto win for Mafia.

[brassherald]

How I feel right now.

[brassherald]

Egix, Auro and either A50 or Buj is my best guess

[brassherald]

Auro is not town. Even if he incorrectly disagrees with the math of the Wolves kill mafia tonight, town would help sell an incorrect theory.

Don't bother engaging. He's mafia

[brassherald]

Gamma Emerald has been prodded

[brassherald]

Mod uses OOC.

[brassherald]

Is there a time where we can say that the mod just abandoned this game?

I am considering just repping out at this point, I don't want one of my three games I'm able to handle to just be dead.

[brassherald]

Good job, finally WWs, I had one bad read.

I'd like to hear from Seer.

[brassherald]

A50 is wolf, he signaled about knowing Roster is Mafia earlier. Also BuJ, after that flip FMPOV you have to be scum.

Asfe do you have a result?

Town: {Brass, Asfe, Auro}
Mafia: {BuJ, Bambi Jay}
Wolf: {Egix, A50}

A50 has a propensity for bussing, right? That's what makes me think he'd be likely partners with Egix. BuJ/A50's late D2 interactions point towards them being opposing factions.

Is there anyone who doesn't believe Brass is locktown by now?

Too many mafia

[brassherald]

Wait, no, I'm just tired from no coffee yet

[brassherald]

Eh...

[brassherald]

No. He was signalling to his wolf partner.

Why would he do that?

[brassherald]

I mean, he had no reason to believe he was being lynched yesterday.

[brassherald]

I just want to point out, WWs need to continue not killing town, even if we don't lynch a WW. Reason for this is because I said so.

[brassherald]

Why is Egix a WW to both of yous? He can't be both your partners!

[brassherald]

I'm a bit shook by a Roster scum flip.

I would still say probably either Bambi or BuJ, with a slight preference towards Bambi.

Confirmed not wolf, and a mafia claim early on, seems not as confessed scum as people seem to think, in my opinion.

[brassherald]

Okay, we need a wolf flip.

So, we have alive: Hydra, me, Bambi, Auro, BuJ, Egix, A50.

Hydra, me, Bambi, Auro are all confirmed not WW, as far as I'm concerned.

Meaning, Egix, A50, BuJ are the lynch pool with a 2/3 shot of hitting WW.

[brassherald]

Okay, we need a wolf flip.

So, we have alive: Hydra, me, Bambi, Auro, BuJ, Egix, A50.

Hydra, me, Bambi, Auro are all confirmed not WW, as far as I'm concerned.

Meaning, Egix, A50, BuJ are the lynch pool with a 2/3 shot of hitting WW.

This is pure numbers, based on reads, we can probably make it a really good shot.

[brassherald]

A50 and BuJaber have been pushing each other. It could be SvS, especially at this late stage where a good scum theater could win you the game.

Note to self: Either check whether either has any history of doing this, or get someone else to do it and take credit because it seems like too much work.

[brassherald]

Mafia is a game of subtle manipulation, even when you are town.

[brassherald]

get someone else to do it and take credit because it seems like too much work.

SUBTLE MANIPULATION!

[brassherald]

Good, I was hoping I wasn't too subtle.

[brassherald]

Please keep in mind, BuJ is already at L-2.

[brassherald]

What if he is town?

[brassherald]

Oh, that's an interesting thing I didn't think of... BuJaber and A50 both have me as pretty much lock town, so both of them can justify either vote as going to hit scum.

Good God, I need to get better at multiball complexity.

[brassherald]

We might get a flip before the beginning of the Night as well.

[brassherald]

I mean, its no less than I expect when I decide to play blood bowl rather than mafia at night in this set up. Extended dead time makes us more apathetic.

I don't blame you too much for not caring, and at this point there's one more town to find.

Correction, 3 scum voted him.

[brassherald]

So, this might also be a bus?

[brassherald]

It's late and I'm tired, and A50 might be bussing, I don't know. I want to sleep.

[brassherald]

It could also just be all scum voted for the last town member outside of me and the hydra, and now me and the hydra get to be king makers.

[brassherald]

Bambi is also not WW.

[brassherald]

VOTE: Nightherald

Post-hammer vote to go to the night version of myself.

[brassherald]

Bujaber can you publicly tell your partner to kill a mafia member tonight? Because I know you know I'm right about you still having to kill the mafia to have any shot to win. I don't know that they are smart enough to not shoot the seer

[brassherald]

Wait, so, we have one town, one bus, and two mafia on the wagon. The job werewolf has is to figure out who the town is and shoot either of the other two who are not you. 2-2-1 M-W-T is still a WW loss.

[brassherald]

Wait, so, we have one town, one bus, and two mafia on the wagon. The job werewolf has is to figure out who the town is and shoot either of the other two who are not you. 2-2-1 M-T-W is still a WW loss.

EBWOP.... Oops.

[brassherald]

Jungle republic works because there is a delicate balance of helping an opposing faction at different times.

This game the balance got destroyed because no lynch gave all the power to mafia.

Another Mafia kill wrestles it away from them.

I'm willing to Happily Ever After with the Werewolves if that's allowed, at this point, WW and town need to work together just to prevent a mafia win.

[brassherald]

Werewolf, you are a fucking idiot.

[brassherald]

Yeah, no, there are two mafia people left, 2 town, 1 WW. The mafia just won.

[brassherald]

This game ends today with a mafia win unless we lynch mafia, now, and I need the other town and the WW to vote with me. Chances of the WW who just decided to make a dumbass kill listening to literally the only person in this game still thinking when the WW has already shown they won't are not hopeful.

[brassherald]

I'm going to give a quick WW guide to winning this now so that maybe they can read it and get it through their thick skull how to actually not just hand mafia a win.
1. We need to lunch mafia today.
2. You need to kill mafia tonight
3. You need to pray that I don't decide to lynch you tomorrow.

[brassherald]

Voting early is a bad idea with 2 mafia and three to lynch

[brassherald]

I don't think a three way draw is possible.

[brassherald]

Oh, if that's so, we still have to find one mafia to make it so the mafia would agree, I'm pretty sure.

[brassherald]

Fun reminder that if the day tommorow begins with 1 town 1 WW and 1 Mafia, the Mafia auto win. So if the WW shoots town tonight they still lose.

This is what I meant before when I told the WW to pray for my mercy.

[brassherald]

WW cannot win anymore because he killed town last night.

[brassherald]

WW has to have the other in {A50, Egix} as town, and lynch and shoot the Mafia in {Bambi, Me, Brass} to go to 2v1 LyLo tomorrow with 1 confirmed town, and lynch the other.

It doesn't work because I don't believe that A50 or Egix are town at this point.

I can tip my hand a bit and say, A50 likely the mafia member, the Egix hard sell on A50 WW this morning rings him being a WW to me. Meaning A50 is a mafia man.

Lynching between you and Bambi, is absolutely the right choice, but I think all town have been cleared of being WW at this point.

[brassherald]

Game is dead

[brassherald]

VOTE: draw

[brassherald]

I would assume we can't PM A50 just to get him here and get this over with?

[brassherald]

This game is so much fun.

[brassherald]

At this point, I'm just assuming this is a draw, and I don't need to post here to even pretend to avoid the prod that would never come anyway.