Open 75 - Vengeful Mafia (Mod screwup ruins game) before 604


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Open 75 - Vengeful Mafia (Mod screwup ruins game) before 604

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Thu May 22, 2008 4:24 am

Post by Prof. Guppy »

Game status: Ruined by virtue of Moderator's immense stupidity.

Player List
-----------------
Armlx
Macavenger
Cogito Ergo Scum
Xtoxm
Mellowed Man
Last edited by Prof. Guppy on Sun May 25, 2008 7:15 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Thu May 22, 2008 4:36 am

Post by Prof. Guppy »

Rules (Stolen from Various People)
1: This is a game. Having fun is a requirement.
2: Please bold your votes. For example,
Vote: RandomPerson.
Votes that are not bolded will not be counted.
3: If you wish to change your vote, bold an unvote for the player you were voting and vote for the new player you are going to be voting. For example,
Unvote: RandomPerson
,
Vote: ScummyPerson.
If you do not unvote in this format, your vote will not be counted.
4: Lynching will require a majority of the votes. You may
Vote: No Lynch
to decide to not lynch someone on a given day. No-lynching requires a majority of the votes. Once a lynch is decided, the decision is final. Feel free to continue posting, but unvoting before I check the thread will not prevent the player from being lynched.
5: If you get lynched or killed, you may post one "Bah." post.
6: Any questions, concerns, desires for me to prod, whatever PM me.
7: If the discussion is slowing, I may place a one-week deadline.
8: Never quote anything that I PM to you.
9: Treat this game as a commitment and be considerate of me and your fellow players.
10: No small or invisible text.
11: Do not discuss this game outside the thread at any time, except if your role specifically allows you to do so, which it won't.

Why Vengeful is different from normal Mafia:
1: There is no Night Phase.
2: If the Godfather is Lynched on Day 1, the town wins right away.
3: If a Townie is Lynched on Day 1, he/she gets to make a vig kill before dying. The town does not win if the GF is vig killed like this.

Role setup:
3 townies
1 mafia goon
1 mafia godfather.
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Thu May 22, 2008 4:38 am

Post by Prof. Guppy »

Role PMs coming soon. You have 72 hours to confirm before we can start the game.
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Thu May 22, 2008 6:34 am

Post by Prof. Guppy »

All roles confirmed. Begin game.
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Thu May 22, 2008 6:35 am

Post by Mellowed Man »

Vote: ArmlX


He's a noob.
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Thu May 22, 2008 3:31 pm

Post by armlx »

Woah, hold up there. Random votes don't help in this set up.

Creepo plan right now. As per here http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7852
it increases the average win % of the average player in the game.

Pairs are MacAvenger and CES, and xtoxm and Mellowed Man. We discuss who to lynch, the lynched person kills Vengeful kills the other person in their pair.

As per the rules of playing MoS's role for the plan, I have not not read my role PM.
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Thu May 22, 2008 3:36 pm

Post by Mellowed Man »

unvote
I'll go research more.
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Thu May 22, 2008 3:48 pm

Post by armlx »

The plan increases the odds of a random player winning by a bit over 5%.

The plan also accounts for me not reading my role PM, as the odds of me winning increase regardless of alignment. The not reading part is simply to ensure the pairings are as impartial as possible.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Thu May 22, 2008 9:07 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Scum »

armlx is right, but to be honest, I'm a little uncomfortable with anyone but be being MoSed.
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 5:04 am

Post by armlx »

Actually, since this is a forum where we can use dice tags, thats optimal. All numbers will count down from the top of the list of players.

1st roll is out of 5 and that is MoS.

Original Roll String: 1d5
1 5-Sided Dice: (5) = 5


2nd roll is out of 4, 3rd is out of 3, those are one pair.

Original Roll String: 1d4
1 4-Sided Dice: (2) = 2


Original Roll String: 1d3
1 3-Sided Dice: (2) = 2


Last 2 are the other pair.
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 5:06 am

Post by armlx »

So, random dice rolls say the exact same thing that I said.
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 5:20 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Scum »

armlx wrote:So, random dice rolls say the exact same thing that I said.
How convenient.

Is there any way to rig these dices?

Anyway, the fact you want to randomize the MoS makes me believe you more. I'm fine with the pairings as they are.

Obviously, I'm vouching for lynching someone in the other pair.
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 5:24 am

Post by armlx »

Cogito Ergo Scum wrote:
armlx wrote:So, random dice rolls say the exact same thing that I said.
Is there any way to rig these dices?
Not that I know of, would be sick though. Unless you count karmic justice as rigging.
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 5:32 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Scum »

armlx wrote:
Cogito Ergo Scum wrote:
armlx wrote:So, random dice rolls say the exact same thing that I said.
Is there any way to rig these dices?
Not that I know of, would be sick though. Unless you count karmic justice as rigging.
K.

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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 9:57 am

Post by Macavenger »

Ok, I've read about the MoS system before, but can't seem to find the page about it on the wiki right now. So, some questions.

armlx, can you justify mathematically how it increases a random player's chances of winning? It's obvious how it increases MoS's chances of winning, but I don't recall seeing how it increases any random player's chances.

The wiki page on Vengeful claims a townie getting lynched D2 doesn't get a vig kill. Doesn't that screw the plan if true?
Mod:
Clarify whether any lynched townie gets a vig kill, or only a townie lynched on D1, please?

I'm also a little uncomfortable with it in general since if armlx is scum (40% chance), that's pretty much an automatic scum win. If he can justify how this increases any player's chance of winning, not just MoS's, then I'm fine with it, assuming it works out with the vig kills and such that I brought up.
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 11:36 am

Post by Prof. Guppy »

Only the townie lynched D1 get a vig kill. A second townie lynched kinda means a scum win, right?
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 12:07 pm

Post by Xtoxm »

Noy liking how armlx is acting. I'd rather just play the game properly, random is stupid. I was happy with how the last one was played...
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 12:08 pm

Post by Xtoxm »

Prof. Guppy wrote:Only the townie lynched D1 get a vig kill. A second townie lynched kinda means a scum win, right?
Well unless the second townie gets a vig kill.

But i'm pretty sure rules are only D1. That's how last one was played (I think).
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 12:15 pm

Post by Macavenger »

Not having a vengeful kill D2 breaks creepo plan, I think.

Lynch from one of the pairings D1, vig the other if a townie is lynched. Odds that at least one scum is in a pairing are 7/10. So 20% chance of instant town win (lynch GF), 30% chance of instant scum win (no scum in the pair), 50% chance of LyLo with basically no information.

Rotten odds for town, IMO. Let's play standard.
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 6:18 pm

Post by armlx »

Mac, I simply went down every possible play branch and found the total odds of winning. Thats the mathematical basis.

Vote xtoxm
for opposing a plan that raises town odds of winning and trying to pin random results on the person they turn out favorable for.

Also, Mac, the issue becomes that its rotten odds regardless. Vengeful is 35% town win in the abstract. We also still discuss lynches, it just works out slightly differently.
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Post Post #20 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 11:22 pm

Post by Xtoxm »

vote armlx
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Post Post #21 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 1:34 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Scum »

Unvote, Vote Xtoxm
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Post Post #22 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 3:08 am

Post by Prof. Guppy »

The "Wow, L-1 already?" Vote count

Xtoxm - 2 votes (armlx, CES)

armlx - 1 vote (Xtomx)

Not voting - 2 players (Macavenger, Mellowed Man)

3 is the magic number.
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Post Post #23 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 4:07 am

Post by Mellowed Man »

unvote, vote Xtoxm



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Post Post #24 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 6:23 am

Post by armlx »

Please vig Macavenger. +EV for town and what not.
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