Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

[Auro]

Hello!

Will catchup in a while.

[Auro]

What you call a "Policy Lynch" is actually a strategic pre-emptive strike against a (set of) player(s) dealt a strong hand if they make it past today, which hold more power then they should in a game with this many scum.

On the flipside, I think a 4-headed hydra can also be easier to read - faking dissonance as scum is easier said than done, and you have the ability to interact with all 4 different heads. I have a feeling you're going by your experience playing alongside my TGW hydra in Lynchpin, is that correct? I think it took quite some effort to stay townread there, and from a very very loose read of the early pages it seems like the hydra is kinda freewheeling here.

The "50%" argument applies for any slot in the game, I don't think it should be justified towards settling on a deathtunnel. If both of you are town, you'd make this pretty easy for scum. I'll read up if there's any... actual case made on the slot in later pages.

[Auro]

By not spamming the thread, for one.

activity is nai

Activity may be NAI but spamming the thread with this worthless unusable garbage is certainly anti town behavior. I want other people to give reads on this situation and both of you to chill out.

Agree with Hobbes here; the amount of low-quality spam is horrifying. Blaming someone else for "90% of the posts" and refusing to sign is also pretty bad. Of the heads I'm most interested in Allomancer, I'd like him specifically to sign his posts at least.

On the other hand, I don't feel that hydras go all-out spam this early when they're being pressured and are aware that they'd look scummy for it. Clogging the thread intentionally to prevent town from working isn't something I see this slot doing. Very mild townlean on the slot.

I don't find the analysis in 100 convincing for the slot to warrant scumreads - defensiveness should not be really AI, and it seems pretty clear there's some emotion mixed in with their "logic".

it's pretty obviously 50/50 from their hypothetical town!POV, this question serves no purpose other than to again discredit. Yes to a townie Bambi is not confirmed town, but obviously she's going to present as town regardless of her alignment. that's not something AI or worth posting about.

Didn't like this part of the analysis. Bambi's presenting as town regardless of alignment, *sure* - but Bambi was trying to sell the idea that lynching 4heads was okay because 50-50, and it's not unreasonable for 4heads to point out that that argument doesn't hold for other slots.

[Auro]

Scumlean on Egix; he doesn't appear to be *solving* the game. Town!Egix in my experience makes an effort early-on and asks questions.
I do see there was/is a bit of a lull in the game though.

[Auro]

hot take, ashjslfdjghnsporigöasirgunb and bambi are both scum

like seriously i could see them deciding to bus one-another

Looks very opportunistic to me. I see there's a wagon on this player, too?

VOTE: Clemency

[Auro]

Also mild-townleaning Vedith.

[Auro]

No I thought about it and no. Bambi is probably town here.
I think scum are a little more self-conscious.

I wouldn't townread Jay for this reason - do you have no prior experience with the slot? He's a pretty good scum player, and nothing in his play so far is out of his scumrange.

[Auro]

mcqueen is there a clear delineation in your mind of where pregame ended and where the game started?

Important question. Seems to be that Jay would push 4heads at actual gamestart anyway; given that, reactions to the whole pre-game 1v1 seem worth analyzing. McQueen, do you disagree?

Whoops, wrong account. Requoted, mod please delete that.
Unfortunately deleting it will garble quote numbers. Quoting it should fix it anyways.

[Auro]

DoubtingThomas hasn't posted in this game thread once, and I checked his meta for activity levels.

The only game he did roll scum in as far as I checked, he was a replace-in, got double prodded and was replaced. He's also been replaced in nearly every towngame, due to lack of activity if I'm not wrong. The high replace-rate seems to show that it has nothing to do with alignment.

However, there's some differences with this game - if he's been posting elsewhere the last few days, he was definitely *intentionally* not posting in this one; I think it's likely that although DoubtingThomas is a regular flaker, he probably dislikes rolling scum to the extent of not posting at all when it happens.

I think it's wiser to wait for his replacement to join the game at this moment, but I'm placing a scumlean on the slot.

[Auro]

You seem very happy there. That's... totally not concerning at all.

I agree I was excited. However, for your shade to be valid, I'd have to love scum and also dislike playing town to the extent that I'd be excited to roll scum and not town. What makes you believe this is true? A simple check would show you I'm usually "excited" at game-starts as either alignment, and in this case I *asked* to replace in to the slot.

[Auro]

@Auro: Why don't you just check the replacements thread. DT has flaked on at least 3 different games already. In other words, he's flaked the site.

Eh, I had checked his profile post history and he was posting a lot on Feb 11 and today, too. However yeah, seems like there's a reason I didn't find the other flaked games on his profile. Yeah, I'll retract that case.

[Auro]

And to whoever asked, as far as I know (bambi has a lot of alts), I have only modded a game she was in. I haven't played with her before.

I'll re-quote your earlier towncase for Jay:

I think scum are a little more self-conscious. Bambi continued fighting what should have looked like a losing battle (or at least one that wouldn't be easy to win), they have shown clear hypocrisy by spamming, and they are walking the scumcase backwards by reaching the conclusion first and finding reasons later. When scum do it they invent reasons to justify the fake reads. Bambi seems to be stumbling on things she thinks proves her case.

What you said re: self-consciousness, lack of stubbornness applies for newbie scum IMO, not so much for experienced scum who knows what they're doing. I

just

lost a game against a scumslot (Pinturicchio) that was pushing me with very dumb reasons all game, and I made the mistake of townreading their conviction in said stupidity. In this case I don't see how you view it as a "losing" battle especially with other slots agreeing they'd prolly be up for PL-ing the hydra, and the hydra not really making any effort to improve on their posting - if I were to make a guess, I think more slots would be voting 4heads in a hypothetical gladiate at the moment. As far as "stumbling on things" to prove her case goes, can you walk me through why that's any different from "making up reasons"?

Also, my input that Jay is experienced and also competent scum - how does that change your opinion? I want to hear your updated thoughts before A50 offers his.

[Auro]

wee snaw

Are you going to make a proper effort this game, or are you just going to call your posts "an enigma" when I try to work with you again?

[Auro]

It was a losing battle because their main basis fot the lynch was discriminatory. They started with the push and case before the hydra did anything worth scumreading for. Despite what anybody's opinion on the hydra is, they were correct on this point and if it were a case on anyone else other than a hydra (and indeed one not-quite well-liked in terms of posting style of its individual heads) it would not just be rediculous, but Bambi would have gotten hounded for it.

Jay's initial argument (in my recollection) wasn't that 4heads was a good PL simply due to spam - it was that a 4 headed Hydra was a difficult sort due to their brushing off scumcases citing "dissonance" and who'd have a large voice going into D2 on a town lynch which would make them dangerous.

While I do not agree with the reasoning, it's not a ridiculous premise. Jay clearly thought he'd win this battle when he entered it, and also through the exchange.

The stumbling on things vs fake reasons has to do with timing. The fake reasons come before or accompanying the vote/case/push. What we have here in this game is Bambi reacting to hydra posts and adding reasons to a case that started out with no reason apart from it's a 4-headed hydra therefore they will talk too much. They also seemed to reread certain posts with the same viewpoint of this needs to be lynched. This latter point is much harder to distinguish from scum fake reasoning and is more subjective but on this I just found their posts to be genuine conclusions of a townie train of thought, rather than someone looking for things that sound right to support their fake read.

You're basically describing conviction here - how I see it, it's equally as easy for scum!Jay to decide on deathtunneling the slot, and carrying that conviction through the day. It's dangerous to townread conviction, especially in Jay's case. If you find their posts "genuine from a townie train of thought" I'm taking it as a gut read.

Also, note that this is multiball - scum on either faction still want to hunt and lynch the other.

[Auro]

Prodging - I'll post more tonight. I was getting some bad feels off Auro though.

Why, an I over-explaining my stances?

Can you describe what was (is) giving you bad feels off me?

[Auro]

Also, bujaber, buddy. Walls suck. Can you split these into smaller posts so I can trick myself into reading all of it?

Auro, too. Let's pretend there is a character limit for everyone!

Nah, I think walls rock, and I'm gonna continue
If you have problems with any specific points of my walls, feel free to debate.
If you feel I'm empty-posting and clogging the thread, feel free to point it out.

[Auro]

I just assumed that you enjoyed being scum more than being town, based on our history... not that I would put all that much stock into that anyway.

C'mon, just because I >>randed scum in the past...
Wonky assumption.
Also, the opposite actually, I'd probably be a bit miffed to roll scum *yet again*, to be honest, so there's that.

[Auro]

i idnivivudally feel null about auro rn

The only "read" you mentioned in the whole post is a nullread on me. Why specifically me, especially if I'm null? Do you have other any other reads, apart from Jay?

[Auro]

lol ive heard that back in tha'day you were expected to post walls

Back in the day, people also died from polio because there was no vaccine.

I think it's a marginal increase in effort to read walls. If you really can't gel with that and would find it hard to work with, I'll be more conscious of walling - I'd argue that walling is fine but I don't think that helps in solving.

[Auro]

Buj, appears that you don't have a vote in play. Why is that?

[Auro]

Ive been busy all day.
So I agree with every comment said so far.

That's literally impossible given the conflicts.

Vedith's just trolling, like he has throughout this phase.

[Auro]

Because I don't know who to vote for yet.

There's a wagon on Clem -- any reason you wouldn't want to join that? If there's no reason to townread his slot, it's a fine vote, no?

[Auro]

Bambi is claimed Mafia; we're lynching him at some point anyway, so I think it's useful to hunt for wolves today?
Hydra is a townlean and I'm disinterested in a lynch there.

VOTE: BrassHerald

[Auro]

It's not a slip at all. I'm claiming Mafia so the seer doesn't waste time on me.

[Auro]

Hmm I still think Brass is the off-wagon scum but McQueen is the probable on-wagon scum, I think this is a better lynch.
VOTE: McQueen

[Auro]

McQueen

:

Clemency (7): mcqueen,

GuiltyLion

,

Auro

, "Antihero", Vedith, BuJaber, Bambi Jay

I think your slot more likely flips town; also have Vedith/BuJ as townleans. Jay is claimed Maf so PoE leaves McQueen.
Also McQueen's content is meh, borderline scummy.
Also GuiltyLion had McQueen as a scumread I think.

BrassHerald

:
Hates playing scum, and his play so far is devoid of scumhunting.

[Auro]

This shitty game isn't even fun because you all skipped the RVS stage. Legitimately, expect me to meet your anti-fun attitudes with this much venom until I die because fuck you all for making this game miserable

I can buy the game isn't fun for you, but I bet it's because you rolled scum

"Skipping RVS" is one of the worst reasons for behaving like all fun is sucked out of the game; and is a poor defense to an accusation that Brass isn't reading the thread.

*However* I'm pretty sure scum would've kept track of Jay's claim, so I'm not so sure on this right now.

If RosterFoster continues to lurk, lynch it.

[Auro]

@A50: Your math is correct; however, you're also assuming wolves would NK randomly. This won't happen since we already have a Mafia claim (Jay) which is a definite non-NK, which skews the numbers; also I'm the probable NK anyway because I'm virtually unlynchable at this point. Do you still think No Lynch is bad?

[Auro]

Not many posts, but the maths in 519 is legit. Though

I think we should be trying to lynch scum though

I agree with A50 about the maths.

We should NL

.

[Auro]

1. Why is it unethical to question replacements? Especially if it's patterned - I'll use whatever tools I have at my disposal to find scum. New evidence made me retract it.
   
2. Where were you when the Clem lynch happened, and why was it a bad lynch? One major force on the wagon is confirmed town (GuiltyLion), and he had his vote there *before* I did and was pushing there before I replaced in. How is BuJaber's vote far better than mine, when it was a sheep vote - sheeping *me*?!
   
3. Why would WW claim Mafia, virtually
   asking
   to be lynched? The only potential benefit is to delay a lynch on themselves, but I don't see how that balances the cost of dying anyway.
   
4. BrassHerald's AtE being genuine - do you think it's AI? If so, what's your read? If not, why mention this at all?

[Auro]

Did I say No Lynch was bad???

Sorry, no, I meant to ask if you still thought a NL was *good*. My arguments were against a No Lynch.

[Auro]

@A50, my primary argument against a no-lynch is that the NK is not going to be random, but I'll craft a more detailed rebuttal later.

[Auro]

No, the opposite. I think WWs *won't* shoot Bambi - why would they? From their perspective, his lynch is guaranteed at some point anyway unless we follow a "lynch wolves first" policy. I think I'm more likely to be NK'd than most other slots here, and if you're town you should probably share that fear too. So the chances of each person being NK'd aren't equal - they're weighted, which should factor into your statistics.

[Auro]

Whether Bambi is fakeclaiming as WW/VT or not is screwing with my head and any thought processes I have right now. >.>

[Auro]

Please don't hammer NL yet - I'm still against it, and have more reasons, I'll post shortly.

[Auro]

@A50 correct me if I'm wrong.

A simplification of your idea is that we enter the same gamestate as today with one less Mafia or Villa - with a 3/8 chance of the former and 5/8 latter. While you say the objective is to regain a villa majority, I don't think that goal is particularly fruitful - in this context, it's just us vs Mafia and I think it's better focusing *only* on Wolves now. A villa majority won't mean much as long as Wolves have their NK, and a 3/8 chance + a guaranteed non-WW lynch frankly doesn't seem worth it. The increased (Villa+Mafia) numbers are good and focusing otherwise only makes it easier for Wolves, who are more dangerous.

Plus, Bambi being okay with the lynch means we're not going to hit Mafia. We're not going to hit the seer either because we'd get a claim otherwise - that gives us a 1/3 chance of hitting WW today.

If I haven't articulated this properly, please do tell me.

[Auro]

And now, the case against McQueen:

1. PoE from the D1 wagon
   : {mcqueen, GuiltyLion, Auro, "Antihero", Vedith, BuJaber, Bambi Jay}
   GuiltyLion flipped town. I know myself to be town. Strong TR on BuJaber (which I'll confirm after a meta-check). Weak TRs on the hydra and Vedith. Jay is claimed Mafia. Leaves McQueen.
   
2. Activity levels
   : Look at how much he's posted here, then go to his profile posts page and note the differences in activity levels WRT other games. He's actively avoiding this thread - scummy for a few reasons.
   
3. Lack of scumhunting
   : Even in the content he *has* posted, there's zero scumhunting, it's useless content.

In addition, GuiltyLion also scumread him as I pointed out earlier, strengthening my confidence on a lynch there.

[Auro]

A no-lynch only favors wolves! A NL means one less Mafia/Villa; there's no point entering the same gamestate with one less Maf/Villa.

[Auro]

Let's put aside highschool math.

Situation A: 5 villa, 2 Mafia, 2 Werewolves.
Situation B: 5 villa, 3 Mafia, 1 Werewolf.

Both situations have Villa majority. Do you think they're equal?

[Auro]

It's worth taking the 1/3 chance of hitting WW.
Let's talk reads.
Rebut my case on McQueen.

[Auro]

Umm, the best NK candidates are those who are townread, and are on the right track. You personally might do that but scum almost always just kill the person most likely to go after them. There's another reason I think why GL was NK'd (which leads me to suspect another player as wolf but I'll case that after McQueen).

Anyway, that's the weakest of my reasons and just supporting my main case. Do you agree with the bulk of my numbered case?

[Auro]

GuiltyLion was NK'd because of a weighted combination of these reasons:

1. He was one of the most competent players on the playerlist
2. Pretty townread; or if not was in the process of it, as he was actively solving the game
3. Had generally correct reads.
4. (Will list this next game day)

It's probable in this case that (1) and (2) hold a lot more weight which is why it's not a *main* reason I'm pushing McQueen.

[Auro]

That would apply if people were > average townread; in this game there are a LOT of scummy slots. For scum it's worth killing a competent strong voice.

[Auro]

Besides, if you're agreeing with my case on McQueen, vote there please.

[Auro]

He's at L-1 I think and I don't want a quickhammer there; I'll unvote for now.

I'm up for posting reads lists in the A50-proposed fashion. If everyone agrees to do that, I'll start.

[Auro]

UNVOTE:

[Auro]

Town
{Vedith}
{Hydra, BuJaber}
{Bambi, BrassHerald}
{A50, Egix}
{RosterFoster}
{McQueen}
Scum

[Auro]

The rationale is for seer to effectively crumb results without giving away who the seer is, in case seer is NK'd.

[Auro]

Eh, changed my mind again actually, screw it.
VOTE: McQueen

[Auro]

@A50: No, I was going by 2/6 on the presumption that Bambi Jay wouldn't allow a lynch on Mafia.

[Auro]

controversial opinion time: the game is dead because most of you tried to replace RVS with pre-game antics, which isn't reliable and shouldn't be the basis for reads

gohs dang this post is worthlesss
VOTE: mcqueen

this was a good vote btw and makes me more slightly more inclined to townread the hydra

This is what I'm referring to re: GL; Again, not a primary reason, it's just consistent with the case.

[Auro]

And your logic is flawed because you know the Mafia have an advantage if numbers are equal, so you really don't care if you hit town here.

Obviously I don't want to hit town, my argument is that sacrificing an opportunity to wolf-lynch hurts both town and mafia - and there's a 4/7 chance they NK town anyway.

[Auro]

Your push on WWs in particular is also a Mafia claim.

Also I'll point out that No Lynch does favor Maf more than it favors town, because in ~66% of cases it's a villa kill on a NL.

[Auro]

I don't want just a "no mislynch", Almost50 - I want a wolf lynch specifically, else I would've wagoned Bambi Jay.

If we lynch a wolf we help Mafia, but *also* ourselves, so it's fine.

"Bambi won't allow a lynch on Mafia today" is an assumption I used to get to the 33% WW-hit number, I don't care for other days.

Also Bambi's associations also give us a good starting point for who isn't Mafia.

[Auro]

*thinking Bambi wouldn't vote her own teammate*

Very Idealist world there, Auro.

I mean after Mafia-claiming, if you get a buddy lynched today with both wolves still alive, I can't see that as a viable strategy. You're competent as scum, so I'm pretty sure you wouldn't do this.

[Auro]

Also if McQueen was Jay's teammate, Jay would've flat-refused to vote there and would've tried to get us on the Hydra wagon.

[Auro]

Wolves having the NK make them dangerous. They can whittle down Mafia but the converse won't happen; the only way to kill Wolves is through lynches. That means town has to work with Mafia to eliminate the greater threat; I'm not saying ignore Mafia-hunting totally, but as long as we have the tool of lynches we should use them to find wolves primarily. As a thought experiment, imagine if all Mafia were eliminated - we'd be left with mountainous 5-2 Town/Wolf which is pretty terrible.

[Auro]

@BuJ, Brass: Any comment on the ongoing debate? If it looks like everyone's not seeing what I am, I'll listen and back down for a bit.

[Auro]

so I'm gonna shut up and play along with whatever you guys decide

Also not able to reconcile this with the attitude you portray in your recent posts, with McQueen at L-1.

I want that too, but the risk/gain ratio is too high for me to take. If we KNEW someone to be a WW we would have lynched them. But we don't, so we can't risk it

at this game status

.

A 1/3 chance of hitting a Wolf, versus a ~2/3 chance of a guaranteed no-wolf-hit and Villa kill.
The "risk" seems pretty palatable to me, also especially from a personal PoV because of strength of townreads and my confidence in the case.
We'll have to lynch wolves at some point - with more mafia alive seems reasonable because of the NKs.

Also, we have one claimed Mafia (Bambi) and some other slots which have high Maf equity, so it doesn't bother me.

[Auro]

If we KNEW someone to be a WW we would have lynched them.

If the lynch is on WW though (which is good for Town) the remaining Wold is forced to hunt for the Seer, because if the catch him the WW are eliminated. This in turn helps Mafia greatly and puts them in pole position.

So you're arguing that a Wolf lynch is good for town, and also beneficial to Mafia greatly and also that you'd lynch a WW if you knew one...

[Auro]

So, obviously what's best is if we lynch a WW, followed by NO LYNCH, followed by lynching a Mafioso, and the worst thing is -naturally- to mislynch a townie.

Your push on WWs in particular is also a Mafia claim.

By your logic, WW>NL>Mafia lynch.
I'm saying WW>NL, let's wolfhunt.
I'm town; if I'm opposed to a No Lynch, and WW lynch is superior but Mafia lynch is inferior, obviously I would be particular about a WW push, right?

[Auro]

I also assert again that McQueen has a lot of scum equity, I've made a case approaching it from a few different angles - and looks like at least 3 others agree on it, so I'd like to see you comment on that as well, A50.

[Auro]

Auro has done some voodoo math that I don't get involved in to say he's got a 1/3 chance to be right

It's not voodoo math.

1. Bambi's claimed Mafia
2. Bambi wouldn't bus his partner in this situation cause it's a really, really really stupid strategy for Mafia
3. That brings the lynch pool to 7; a seer would claim at L-1 so brings it to 6
4. 2 wolves; so 2/6 = 1/3 chances of hitting a wolf.

I don't disagree with A50's math, I disagree on his conclusions from the math. His math basically says 1/3 chance of 5-2-2 tomorrow and 2/3 chance of 4-3-2 tomorrow, and there's a greater chance of regaining town majority than if we lynch; my counter-argument is that a majority doesn't make sense with both wolves alive and isn't worth sacrificing a chance to lynch wolves for.

[Auro]

1- Avoiding Bambi (a claimed Mafia if we choose to believe that). The fact that he is excluding Bambi from being a WW and accepting his claim as Mafia is reason enough to think they're both Mafia.

2- His manipulation of the game status and pushing for a lynch at all costs. A mislynch is beneficial to both scum, but he is excluding a lynch on Mafia too, so a mislynch or a WW lynch. >>> MAFIA

3- I forgot what the third was, but go back to the very post where I said that and read it and my subsequent post. Either that or ISO Auro since the start of D2 and see for yourself.

1. Bambi could be a WW, sure. I'm lynching that slot anyway later. However, it's most likely he IS Mafia claiming Mafia, and even then, suspicion that he's a WW won't prevent me from lynching McQueen.

2. *You* seem to be manipulating the game status. I specifically stated multiple times that I want a WW lynch, and if you believe it's a mislynch, argue against the case? ALSO, your no-lynch from your pure mechanics logic favors Mafia more than it favors town -> Because with a NL, there's a 5/8 chance of scum hitting a town slot. If from town PoV, a 1/3 chance of 1 less Mafia is favorable, then from a Maf PoV, a 2/3 chance of 1 less villa is even better, no?

[Auro]

But, we don't need Bambi to bus a partner to get a lynch on the partner?

Bambi gave the a-OK to lynch McQueen.
I was expecting him to refuse and continue tunnelling the hydra (or) argue in favor of a no lynch if McQueen was Mafia.

Do you think Bambi would so readily bus his buddy?
We don't need Bambi to bus his partner; but that he readily voted is indicative that the partner isn't Mafia -> leading to the 1/3 number.

[Auro]

@A50 correct me if I'm wrong.

A simplification of your idea... [snip]

If I haven't articulated this properly, please do tell me.

"Manipulation of game state"

[Auro]

I think it is more likely to be indicative that they are not partnered, but I can think of reasons for her to vote there if they were mafia partners. It could be to throw off Vote Count Analysis later, counting on our losing interest in an early Day 2 lynch and moving on to someone else, etc. I'm going to give you more than 50% that they are not aligned, but its not impossible.

1 Mafia dead, 1 Mafia claimed (guaranteed lynch), 1 remaining.
With both wolves remaining with their NKs.
It's a surefire way to lose as Mafia.

[Auro]

See? THIS is a misleading statement. WHO says it will be a VILLA kill all the time? It's a 5:3 at random, and assuming WWs don't want to hit Mafia at this point is stupid.

Let's do the math..

If we mislynch we are 4-3-2, and WWs don't want the kill is on Villa = 3-3-2. By this point the town has lost already, and I suspect the Mafia become too powerful to overcome by TOWN & WWs COMBINED (unless WWs open wolf and the whole Town is willing to give them the win)

If we No Lynch, and the kill hits "Villa" it is 4-3-2 tomorrow, and by sheer numbers we are likely to lynch "not-town". Not to mention it becomes "odd numbers by day" a game, which is ALSO statistically proven pro-town in games with single NKs.

It won't be a villa kill *all* the time. 5/8 = 62.5% which is 4% away from 2/3.
Mafia isn't too powerful to overcome even if we mislynch, but WW will get incrementally more powerful to lynch if we don't lynch them.

Risk(Not lynching WW) > Risk(Mislynching) IMO.

Lynching Mafia after a No-Lynch today with Villa-kill is still bad, it means WW are even more incrementally powerful!

[Auro]

Yeah, we are off odds right now. I want an odd number.

Dude, I really doubt the odd-evens logic works for Multiball...

[Auro]

Mafia become too powerful to overcome by TOWN & WWs COMBINED (unless WWs open wolf and the whole Town is willing to give them the win)

WWs have a night kill. We have claimed Mafia.

The NK makes WWs very dangerous, significantly more than Mafia.

[Auro]

Yeah, we are off odds right now. I want an odd number.

Dude, I really doubt the odd-evens logic works for Multiball...

Ok if you just consider this "Wolf/NotWolf" then odds/evens makes more sense but with this number of players I think it's a slightly greater chance, and I'm asserting yet again that lynches are the ONLY tool we have to get rid of Wolves. They do have shots at night; that might help us clear Mafia, and in any case once we get one wolf down we can Mafia-hunt.

BuJaber, please see what I'm seeing here.

[Auro]

I'm honestly not sure why evens are bad anymore, but I know people keep telling me they are, so I like things to be not bad.

Say 3 town, 1 maf. MyLo.
If you lynch you're supposed to pick from 3; if you NL you pick from 2 in LyLo, 33% chance of scum lynch vs 50%.

I think it's a general extension of this idea; however I think the benefits of no lynching specifically in these terms reduce a lot as you increase the number of players.

And in a multiball game where the NK can hit either Maf or Villa with different win-cons, I doubt the "odds > evens" argument even holds significant validity.

[Auro]

Also @A50:
If we follow your plan and NL, and the NK is a VT, you want to lynch Bambi tomorrow? Meaning they get another NK?

Can you see how your plan probably makes it muuuuuch more beneficial for Wolves?

[Auro]

Depending on the NK we can decide whether we want to lynch Bambi tomorrow.

What did this refer to?

[Auro]

Um, okay. The fault with your argument is that it's a stupid majority because it's equivalent to a 6-2 mountainous which is massively beneficial for Wolves who still retain the NK.

[Auro]

And when I'm revealed town, then you'd say you want to lynch a wolf specifically and not mafia?

[Auro]

Directed to A50. He was saying on a Maf NK lynch Bambi, and on VT NK wolfhunt. The former, less likely but lynching Bambi then gives Wolves a huge benefit; latter more likely but puts us in the same state as today with one less villager.

[Auro]

Directed to A50. He was saying on a Maf NK lynch Bambi, and on VT NK wolfhunt. The former, less likely but lynching Bambi then gives Wolves a huge benefit; latter more likely but puts us in the same state as today with one less villager.

The benefit of NL to Wolves is >>> the benefit to town or Mafia. A50 even admits it's optimal for wolves.

[Auro]

The "you" was directed @TOWN, not claimed scum.

Let's just do a lynch!
If a VT is lynched WW are forced to shoot Bambi anyway.

So what about now? Or is Bambi+Auro+Vedith the Mafia team?

[Auro]

Don't hammer - we need McQueen to claim first btw.

Also I want BuJ to weigh in, I'm ready to change my mind if he also thinks NL is the best.

[Auro]

Bad logic. I don't care for Bambi, I'm 100% lynching that slot anyway - but it's most probable it's a legit claim, and I'm using that only to weigh my chances at a wolf Lynch. Even if Jay is wolf, there's one other - and I believe McQueen has high enough scum equity for that.

[Auro]

Don't hammer - we need McQueen to claim first btw.

Claiming is stupid in this setup.
We lynch the target we choose.

Uh, no - **if** McQueen claims seer we're definitely not lynching him.

[Auro]

Don't hammer - we need McQueen to claim first btw.

Yes, we absolutely need mcqueen to claim VT (regardless of his true alignment) so we lynch him, or claim Seer and have the WWs shoot him tonight instead while we lynch another player. Sure. That's NOT a mafia-motivated line of thought at all.

No, I would no-lynch then.

[Auro]

Oh no I'm not saying we should have seer CC.

[Auro]

If he's WW that claims Seer, the real Seer doesn't CC, tries to find his partner, and outs tomorrow. If he's Mafia who claims Seer, he's 100% dead tonight.

If he claims seer, he gives last night's results, and we'll find out whether he's telling the truth tomorrow.

This.

[Auro]

A50's plan *greatly* benefits wolves no matter how it goes;
Maf NK - Lynch the other maf, leaves 5-1-2 and another NK leads to 4-1-2 or 5-0-2 which wolves will prolly win.
Villa NK - 4-3-2 which is less EV for Villa than today

[Auro]

A50's plan *greatly* benefits wolves no matter how it goes;
Maf NK - Lynch the other maf, leaves 5-1-2 and another NK leads to 4-1-2 or 5-0-2 which wolves will prolly win.
Villa NK - 4-3-2 which is less EV for Villa than today

[Auro]

Apparently the WWs pool is thinning down for the Seer if they're following closely (and I hope they are). Please do NOT respond to this post.

WW would be fighting FOR the No Lynch - not against - no?

[Auro]

A mafia lynch also greatly benefits the WWs here, and even if we assume Bambi is really mafia, I'm getting a WIFOM vibe from her.

McQueen I strongly think is wolf. Jay aside.

[Auro]

(5-0-2 is so favourable to town)

5-0-2 is *massively* beneficial to scum, even with a cop.

[Auro]

WW would be fighting FOR the No Lynch - not against - no?

Depends if WW are being lynched or not.

Yes, but that's not what I was addressing.

Can you tell me how A50's plan doesn't immensely benefit wolves in either scenario, as I outlined?

[Auro]

A mafia lynch also greatly benefits the WWs here, and even if we assume Bambi is really mafia, I'm getting a WIFOM vibe from her.

McQueen I strongly think is wolf. Jay aside.

I feel like this morning you were saying Jay was the best reason that McQueen was WW.

Yes, because P(Jay is Mafia) is pretty high. I'm talking about the possibility where he's WW - doesn't affect my McQueen push is what I'm saying.

[Auro]

A cop with 3 checks already? It's autowin if all the checks are still alive.

Hmm that's true, I mean in the case of all Mafia gone with also having 3 clears.

Yeah I'll think about this

[Auro]

If things go the way Auro's describing we'd have 2 Seer results by tomorrow. 2 innos ot 1 inno & 1 guilty. If we're lucky and the Seer isn't dead on N3, we'd have THREE results. Wirst case scenario is 3 innos + the Seer himself. Now how is this even winnable for the WWs regardless of whether it's 5-0-2 or 4-1-2?

Didn't account for Seer results, I wish you brought this up earlier.

[Auro]

As I said before, if I'm the only person who thinks a no-lynch is bad, I'll stop arguing and support a NL.

[Auro]

Gut says no, but I'm re-evaluating.

Wolf!A50 would probably favor a lynch to hit seer here, because the seer would be his biggest theat; so my paranoia there has gone down a little bit.

[Auro]

Okay so I thought about this a lot, and I won't bore you with the number of times Iswitched between thinking aura is right to A50 and vice versa.

None of my arguments account for the seer, I forgot about that entirely which invalidates them. :$

Also Auro*!

[Auro]

Can you explain why a Maf Lynch is better? General thought seems to be that they'd shoot the claimed mafia; although since Seer is a larger threat they might try to lynch outside that.

[Auro]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Auro]

Nevermind it got hammered.
Auro

Sorry ;-;

I spent a *whole* day derp-arguing forgetting the presence of a seer, so no energy to think through thoroughly.

I feel like having the seer alive is top priority for town and a Lynch would prolly hit a townie, gating the NK, so I'm not that against it.

[Auro]

@Brass: What's the motivation behind me suddenly changing my mind?

For most of the later parts of the argument I thought A50 was a wolf for suggesting his plan. After the seer information was put forth, I realized A50 wouldn't propose this as WW. He wouldn't as Mafia either in the beginning when there's a possibility he can guide the lynch onto non Mafia.

[Auro]

Auro could you link me some scum games of yours please?

I'm outside right now, but I can do that sometime later.

Is there any specific concern you have about me you'd like to talk about?

[Auro]

@Jay: Why would no Lynch be beneficial for scum here when lynching 1. Gets rid of a townie and 2. Increases chance of a seer NK?

[Auro]

I mean, as it is, most people have not posted anything that would be seen as crumbing a Seer result, so, take away their legitimate chance to do that, if the Seer hasn't already done it.

I was the first to suggest it and also do it, and you blatantly refused to do it though?

[Auro]

And if "curbing discussion" was my motivation, I would've blindly agreed to a NL long ago instead of... Guess what, discuss it like crazy and ask everyone for their opinions and what not.

[Auro]

@Bambi: No. Explain the scum motivation behind a NL.

[Auro]

Eh, I don't see that - I just see continued discussion I've no real energy to evaluate; again, if I was agenda driven by less discussion I wouldn't have made much of a fuss about it in the first place.

[Auro]

We can still do the hypo. You're here, BuJ posted, Bambi posted.

[Auro]

So really all that no lynch does is protect the mafia.

And considering how desperate you seem to be to associate auro with Bambi as mafia while advocating for NL points to you being mafia actually.
Get no lynch now, hope the seer gets a guilty, which would force remaining WW to shoot Bambi, and then you push your auro case to get him lynched, resulting in what would be 3-2-1, unless auro is WW, then it's 4-2 nightless.

You really think Jay is villa here and A50 is mafia, capitalizing on this?

[Auro]

Oh nevermind.

[Auro]

viewtopic.php?f=50&t=77453
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=77673
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=78192
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=78257
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=78009

@BuJ: My scumgames.

[Auro]

We were pressuring Clemency as he was refusing to play the game and was empty posting.
Clem got to L-1. Jay asked him to make a joke or die, and Clem said he'd die (in an attempt to be humorous).
Jay took that as a taunt and hammered him, before proceeding to claim Mafia.

In retrospect it was bad because he got to L-1 without any real resistance, which would've been there if he was scum.

[Auro]

I played with you in Mini 2040, I got NK'd N1 and you were really puzzled

[Auro]

Should the seer out themselves and claim results?

[Auro]

mcqueen (might be Mafia)

I'll not really fight an Egix lynch since he has > rand scum equity and all his votes seem to be on town (assuming brass is also town)

But I want a McQueen lynch today, the case on him seems stronger.

[Auro]

just a reminder that we are at 4t/3m/2w
we no longer have the majority. I say we lynch Bambi just to get a scum out of the way

I don't like this pop-in. I don't recall the Hydra taking part in any plans yesterday, they silently supported a No-Lynch; this post kinda reads as that they decided on this agenda overnight

[Auro]

mcqueen (might be Mafia)

Question I meant to ask: Why Mafia?
Mafia and town both have incentive to scumhunt, lack of scumhunting should be the biggest wolf indicator - what McQueen was doing.

Also now your reason for me being Mafia is saying "virtually unlynchable"?

[Auro]

Also walk me through your BuJaber WW read; and also why you're not considering WW!Jay anymore.

BuJ has been one of the towniest players to me so far in terms of genuineness and depth of thought. If your basis for it is him not sheeping you on yesterday's plan, that's a bad reason.

And Jay because he didn't NK you? You admit Jay is very complex a player, I'll be surprised if this is why you eliminate that possibility.

[Auro]

Both factions would "hunt" for the other, but in different fashions. To the wolves, the Mafia are equivalent to Masons. Given Mafia have high incentive to eliminate wolves, I believe their pushes would be genuine, whereas Wolves would have to fabricate their cases and follow an agenda - this creates an assymmetry in what constitutes "hunting" to each faction.

Egix's ISO does show *some* scumhunting (although bad votes) which, from experience with Egix I feel are genuine -- he even takes part in yesterday's discussion questioning why McQueen -- so while he has some scum equity by virtue of not obvtowning as much as town!Egix usually does, I think it's not as much as McQueen does.

McQueen's not posting isn't deliberate IMO - simply that so far, nothing has happened that poses any significant danger to wolves, so I feel like he simply ignored the thread. He was posting in other games, and even this game day has been active elsewhere but absent here.

The strongest reason for him not being Mafia is the Speedwagon on him last game day - which, as I recall, had Brass, Vedith and Me hopping on it. Why would Maf!Jay bus his partner in that situation? And from your perspective, A50, why would BOTH other mafia bus him, especially with one Mafia outed?

[Auro]

Also now your reason for me being Mafia is saying "virtually unlynchable"?

3- I forgot what the third was

Weak reason. It was a tongue-in-cheek comment. Only Maf motivation I can think of is to ward off a NK - but it's within town motivation to do that too, and I was pretty aware that there were players likelier to be NK'd.

[Auro]

As for BuJ, well out of this list he, brass and Jay most familiar with my play. Not shooting me for 2 successive nights = the WWs know I'm not the Seer. Otherwise, I should have been shot on N1.

I'm a little confused - if he's very familiar with your play, he's likely to NK you as Wolf - so not doing that implies he's not Wolf, right?

You're applying that logic to clear Jay from being Wolf; while when it comes to BuJ you say Wolves know you're not seer.



Interchange Jay with BuJ in your reasoning and why doesn't that hold?

[Auro]

The strongest reason for him not being Mafia is the Speedwagon on him last game day - which, as I recall, had Brass, Vedith, Bambi Jay* and Me hopping on it. Why would Maf!Jay bus his partner in that situation? And from your perspective, A50, why would BOTH other mafia bus him, especially with one Mafia outed?

Corrected.

[Auro]

@Brass: I don't care for your townblock much ATM, I want to lynch a wolf - I've described why McQueen is a better lynch than Egix and why McQueen is prob not Mafia. Comments?

@Egix: Way to throw shade at four slots in two posts. In what world am I a wolf with my D2 play, waging an all out war against a likely townslot over a move that arguably benefits wolf!me?

[Auro]

Being bad at town =/= refusing to participate.

[Auro]

Being bad at town =/= refusing to participate.

Evidence suggests otherwise.

Is this evidence you cannot provide, or a general observation? If it's the latter I'll disagree.

[Auro]

I'll check for myself - what I do see is that McQueen has been in a few games, and has nearly zero-posted here while active in other places.

[Auro]

Meh - On a cursory glance I'm not able to reach the same evidence you're claiming to have. I'll do a more thorough check later.

[Auro]

@BuJ: From what you're saying, you want today's lynch to be on Mafia and not WW?

Requote

[Auro]

So I take it you believe Bambi Jay isn't Mafia?

[Auro]

Oh, okay - you want to lynch a wolf and have the other shoot mafia tonight. Yeah, that's optimal.

[Auro]

I agree with Bujaber's plan - lynching town or wolves is a prob loss for us, so we should aim to hit Mafia.

I'm town though, and I'm not convinced A50 is Mafia. BuJ, your premise is that the No Lynch plan explicitly benefited only Mafia, therefore being vocal or on the wagon is Maf-indicative?

Hydra's likelier than A50 IMO - look at their behaviour yesterday. Also more interestingly, the Bambi-Hydra fight seems to have weakened a lot: Neither of them seem to be *strongly* pushing the other anymore, I kinda feel their interactions were theater.

[Auro]

Can McQueen be replaced?

[Auro]

Or prodded first. Whatever.

McQueen might be the seer and might have results, he flaked though -- hence. I don't want a lynch before that slot posts.

[Auro]

The strongest reason for him not being Mafia is the Speedwagon on him last game day - which, as I recall, had Brass, Vedith and Me hopping on it. Why would Maf!Jay bus his partner in that situation? And from your perspective, A50, why would BOTH other mafia bus him, especially with one Mafia outed?

@A50

[Auro]

There's gonna be a whole lot of questioning of those that shaded, or scumread, or advocated for your lynch earlier in the game but are not following through with it.

The mistake with your line of thought is to assume that Wolves won't shoot Bambi.
In the current gamestate, they *have* to shoot Mafia, or they'll likely lose - especially if we hit a wolf today.
They have no option but to shoot Bambi Jay.
I'd rather trust Wolves to play to their win-con rather than gamethrow, and this makes the hydra a better lynch than Jay.

[Auro]

Mcqueen probably isn't wolf given he hasn't been pounced on yet despite being lurky.

False, he was pounced on - there was a quickwagon on him last game day; I keep pushing him.
A50's logic on his McQueen read is bad, as I pointed out. Yours is bad, too. If anything, wouldn't you assume he'd more likely be pounced on if he was town, Wolves going for the easy mislynch etc?

Funny how the overwhelming support for no lynch is now sitting quietly not knowing what to do.

I want to vote for the hydra, I'm waiting for SR to catch up and if seer with a guilty / two innos, claim.

I am worried about the hydra flipping town and Bambi being a wolf. In which case can you guarantee that they would shoot mafia?

Very unlikely, especially considering a wolf would never claim Mafia and ask not to be checked - quite a stupid move and Jay's competent enough not to do that. I'm pretty sure a seer would've checked the claim, too. What IS likelier than that is Jay actually being a villager in this scenario, I've played with him in the past.

Your play has been getting scummier with time - I feel like you're establishing multiple lynch paths with surface-level dichotomies ("One of A50, Auro" or "One of Bambi, Hydra). You say you're ready to lynch the hydra, but when I offer a convincing reason to let wolves shoot Jay, you bring up a scenario (which you admit is unlikely) to double down on lynching Jay. You also passively imply that anyone not voting Jay is mafia. You don't seem very concerned/interested that A50 and I disagree with you, either - I'm not seeing a good-faith attempt to engage.

[Auro]

VOTE: McQueen

[Auro]

Oh sorry.
VOTE: Scum Reading

[Auro]

Uh, I buy your claim.
So you're in agreement with BuJaber, you want to lynch Mafia over a possible WW lynch?

[Auro]

PoE

Auro - Me, town.
Bambi Jay - Not WW, prob Maf
rosterfoster - Probtown
ajfefijsleifjsa - Seer, town
brassherald - Probtown

Leaves Egix, BuJaber, Almost50, SR - now it's just who's a matter of who's WW and who's Mafia, here.

SR's slot was quickwagoned to 4 votes with Bambi Jay on the wagon last game day -> Strong evidence that he's not Mafia. Therefore, likely WW candidate.
Egix is more of a gray area.

[Auro]

Scum hunting doesn’t mean anything in multiball setup, this is why scum have a higher chance of winning. I’d rather base my judgement off of votes.

But the votes point to you being likelier - again, I'd like the hydra, BuJ and BrassHerald to explain the quickwagon on your slot D2.

On second thought I could swap Roster and BuJ in my PoE.

[Auro]

Hmm I still think Brass is the off-wagon scum but McQueen is the probable on-wagon scum, I think this is a better lynch.
VOTE: McQueen

Besides, if you're agreeing with my case on McQueen, vote there please.

VOTE: McQueen

Sure.

By the way, I think the town block is Auro, A50, BuJaber and one other slot to be named later.

[snip]

I really like this post. Most likely town too.

VOTE: McQueen

Lets do this!

VOTE: McQueen

The Mafia agrees with this plan.

{Town, Probtown, Flipped town, Claimed Mafia} on the wagon.
Bambi is Mafia ->

Why would he bus a partner on a quickwagon which could potentially go through in that gamestate

?

A50, you Mafia-read me: Same question, replace Bambi with me.
BuJ, you maybe-Mafia-read me: Same question, replace Bambi with me.

It's a blatant logical hole for anyone who's reading me and/or Jay as Mafia, to assume McQueen is also Mafia.

[Auro]

{Scum Reading, Almost50} probable wolf team.

I pushed McQueen D2 when A50 said he was okay with a lynch <--> A50 hard-pushes a No Lynch.
I push McQueen today and A50 chooses to vote Egix over McQueen, having McQueen as a Mafia solve along with Bambi and me - Ignores the inconsistencies I point out.

Scum Reading seems to have flail-voted Egix as his partner did, assuming it's the best wagon to push (considering town says we want to lynch WW and not claimed Mafia).
Perhaps his partner stated in the scumthread that Brass was obvtown and not lynchable?

[Auro]

Why is it just me and brass on it? Brass is leading it, wouldn’t it be dumb for a werewolf to bus their team mate right now? There’s no way I’d win by myself.

Yeah, fits with my solve - Egix is mafia, you're WW trying to push the easiest non-WW lynch you can.

Town block should hop on really quick, there is a variable that is either ww/maf in your town block read, we’ll sort it out once you see the votes on Egix. Also, another argument is that newbies don’t tend to bus their teammates, or at least not that I know of. Would ww me even address this?

Scummy. Again, the accusation was never that you're bussing your teammate - I think your teammate is probably A50, and if I'm wrong, Roster/BuJaber.

Oh seer confirms non ww, damn, now I have to take into account brass’ probability of being mafia, I’ll go look on that wagon auro keeps bringing. Meanwhile, to multitask, try and accept my role as a town, who’s spot would I take in the town block? Reasoning as well, please

In mine, the only possibility I see is RosterFoster - but very slim possibility.

[Auro]

Auro, don’t take that into account, I got the seer mechanic wrong. I’ll brb, I’ll read 37 pages oof UNVOTE:

Take your time, but I'm pretty sure you're the correct lynch today, and I want Brass/BuJ/Hydra/Jay's opinions on this as well.

[Auro]

Auro all I can say is fine with me
But what do you think of egix independently from S-R?

Mafia.
Everyone in my PoE has to be either Wolf or Mafia, in isolation from SR's slot I'm not sure if I would've read him strongly as either faction - but looking at how SR's probwolf I'll bucket Egix to mafia

[Auro]

I don't see A50 as WW though, not when he pushed no lynch.. if you're town he's mafia

Observe when he strongly pushed a No Lynch - when I launched an attack on McQueen, and it rapidly grew to 4 votes.

You don't think scum!A50 would think "Pushing a No-Lynch is easier than trying to form another wagon"?

[Auro]

Mate, if a scum team member is lurking this much they become dead weight and will draw much attention to their partners if they do not hard bus them already. It's as simple as that. The next time you play scum try to be a lurksack and see how your team treats you.

Lol, no, they wouldn't bus when No Lynch is a viable alternative, and in multiball where a Lynch on a partner gives you less towncred than in a single-ball game.

[Auro]

You understand now why I was saying we need to hit mafia when seer was still unknown?

Hmm. I'll give this careful thought later, but ATM I'm not too focused in sorting your slot versus Roster.

[Auro]

Umm. I don't think you read my post properly.
The context was the McQueen wagon *last* game day. Yeah wolves would more readily pounce on him to get a claim; that he's not pushed then indicates scum, not more likely town.

[Auro]

Gut says no, but I'm re-evaluating.

Wolf!A50 would probably favor a lynch to hit seer here, because the seer would be his biggest theat; so my paranoia there has gone down a little bit.

Ok, started reading from 300, I reached 700, this is the only thing that spells suspicious to me. For people that forgot, in this context, Auro was the only one advocating for a lynch. This is what he then says.

Yeah, I didn't take into account that his push for no Lynch came after my aggressive push on McQueen.

[Auro]

Mate, if a scum team member is lurking this much they become dead weight and will draw much attention to their partners if they do not hard bus them already

Lol, so you seriously believe I'm bussing my partner McQueen today because... He's dead weight?

[Auro]

I guess that makes sense IF you assume S-R is his partner and that A50 wouldn't bus.

In this setup bussing would've cost him the game. 3 Mafia alive, only two Wolves, one gone would push to 5-3-1 if he bussed McQueen.

Why would he bus?

[Auro]

Expected SR to start calling me wolf.

For most part of my push for a lynch I never took into account the seer, which should be obvious if you read my posts and then look at my re-evaluation when presented with that info. Even then, a potential seer Lynch is only a marginal benefit to no lynching - even if I hit town with my aggressive push, I'd be under the radar for it anyway.

[Auro]

That only works if A50 is WW, not mafia. What solid proof do we have of that?

A50 is a likely partner I said, I'm not 100%
We can work out who the partner is once we get the McQueen flip.

[Auro]

That only works if A50 is WW, not mafia. What solid proof do we have of that?

Besides, I presented strong evidence of McQueen being Wolf over Egix (wagons) which BuJ agrees with: what about that?

[Auro]

For most part of my push for a lynch I never took into account the seer, which should be obvious if you read my posts and then look at my re-evaluation when presented with that info. Even then, a potential seer Lynch is only a marginal benefit to no lynching - even if I hit town with my aggressive push, I'd be under the radar for it anyway

What I mean is: Wolf would rather allow a lynch to go through than no lynch, but wolves wouldn't aggressively push for a mislynch over a no lynch.

[Auro]

Ajfe - seer - town
Brass - probtown by play, and not Wolf anyway
Me - I know I'm town
RosterFoster - towny by play (also my weakest townread)

My townblock wasn't based on the no Lynch wagon.
Also as I said, BuJ might be town and I'd swap him out for Roster, but that sort isn't important to me right now.

[Auro]

You were presented with statistics which massively favoured town, yet you were advocating to take risks still.

And what's your take on BuJaber, then?
Without seer guilties I'm still of the opinion that lynches favor town, FTR.

[Auro]

I don’t believe Auro is mafia, because just like mafs have someone that talk for them, someone should represent the werewolves as well, and who would better do that than Auro.

What sorta logic is this?
"Someone should represent werewolves"
"Who better than Auro?"
"Therefore Auro is wolf and not mafia"

Lolwut?

[Auro]

Let’s see that solid case you have now.

Sure, TL;dr:

Everyone in my PoE is scum, either Wolf or Mafia.
You're not Mafia because the quickwagon D2 suggests otherwise.

Hence, Wolf.

[Auro]

To read BuJ I only need to look at voting patterns. I didn’t see him on the no-lynch and he doesn’t spell out confirmed town as well to me

Oh, so you're scumreading BuJaber as well for advocating against a no-lynch. Cool.

[Auro]

Well, yeah? What are you trying to say here? I don’t see the point. He didn’t vote for no-lynch day two, should I look at him as town?

I don't care for the votes.
He was against a no lynch, after being offered "statistics" that it was better.

[Auro]

^Hi, Egix is still not convinced I'm town with no reasoning.

That post comes from town 0% of the time. It's bad.

Mafia keeping lynch options open.

[Auro]

You were pressured to hammer no-lynch to look town. You had an epiphany that town would always advocate for no-lynch and you hopped on the wagon? Took you 40 posts, damn. You even struggled to give statistics and everything and value the risk versus reward when you could’ve just gone for no risk and high reward. That’s townie perspective, except you’re ww, pushing on inactive slots, cuz that’s where scum thrive, being opportunistic.

I already defended against this, from both angles.

1. I didn't take into account the seer results; and I still believe that in the absence of seer a lynch is, on an average, better for town in that gamestate. I gave my reasons for this.
2. The benefit of pushing for a mislynch that aggressively if it's anti-town doesn't outweigh the risks. Being vocally against a NL and causing a ML leads to me being checked and/or lynched the following day; scum would thrive on coasting in this gamestate (till attacked).

Also, it's not just the inactivity - McQueen's posts when he posted were scummy, and the quickwagon implying you're not Maf is strong objective evidence, and the PoE is strong as well.

[Auro]

just PoE that he didn’t have access to day one when he was pushing, otherwise that would be cheating or getting extremely lucky

Um, sometimes inactive slots *can* roll scum though.
McQueen didn't flake - he was active in all other places but this one, that was enough to ping my scumdar.

Also you can't dismiss it as "just PoE", the PoE is entirely valid.

[Auro]

You guys have to vote between me and auro, we’re the ww slots that are the safest to lynch at the moment.

I'm trying real hard to see that coming from a town mindset.

[Auro]

SR, you were wolf, right?

RN I'm not sure which one of BuJ/A50 could be partners; I think bussing is strongly detrimental so I'm again not fully sure of A50.

[Auro]

What if it's Scum Reading and Auro because that gave me real SvS vibes.

Ugh... I hate that this is actually the right move

VOTE: scum reading

If you get SvS vibes, what roles do you assign to each person? Me being ww and him mafia?

Both WW.

I'm saying that it looked staged. Like if we lynch one, we find a WW and need to go "Hey, they had this fight, why would they both be WW?"

But, it seems fake to me.

This is going at a next level of reasoning behind your voting. Brass could be scum as well actually. Scum thrive in possibility, town in probability. You making this whole case against me seems too much of a desperate attempt to justify your vote. But if you believe it’s a werewolf on werewolf, you’d be alright with lynching Auro as well, right? Except you’re not.

SR is actually right here, very wonky reasoning on Brass' part
It's absurd to think I'd bus my WW partner on D2 when no lynch was a clearly better alternative and push the gamestate to 5-3-1 which is prob loss even if I reap towncred from it. Brass' push on Egix because Egix isn't townreading him yet is also not impressive here.

[Auro]

But Brass can't be wolf - and if he's Mafia I can't imagine who his partners would be.

[Auro]

If A50 is Mafia who's the other wolf? Roster?

[Auro]

Do you still think he was right about the no lynch?
You seemed unsure at twilight d2 and I thought you realized you made a mistake. Were you faking?
Because if you are town he should be outed mafia right now

People can be wrong about their logic sometimes is what I think. I've provided an argument as to why A50 would fight for a No Lynch when the pressure was on his wolf buddy McQueen - that's plausible, no?

[Auro]

Bussing in this game is really, really bad though unless it's the only option. D2 bus would bring it to 5-3-1 and a very probable loss even if A50 gets massive towncred from a bussing lynch.

The seer check is a fine trade-off to avoid his partner getting lynched, IMO.

[Auro]

There's also the assumption that the NK would be gated to Mafia (since we have a claimed Mafia) instead of a seer-hunt, which war then a reasonable assumption to make.

Whatever is truly optimal, I don't think it necessarily matters because there were pros and cons to each for every faction, and the decision to support it or not would be a function of that and the gamestate.

Also, BuJ, it doesn't matter much now - we're much closer to a full gamesolve at the moment. All that we need to do now is identify the correct townblock, and then I'll analyze whether we have a sure path of victory. My analysis would be contingent on SR being wolf, which I'm 99% sure of anyway - especially after his forcing a 1v1 with me.

Ajfe is town. BrassHerald is town. I'm town. I need to identity the fourth.
Bambi is Mafia. Egix is prob Mafia.

This leaves {Roster, BuJaber, Almost50} where one's town, one's Mafia, one's WW. I can't see A50 being town here; going by your theory that NL is most beneficial for Mafia (and also Mafia knew this and played to it) I'd be inclined to believe Roster is Maf. If you're town, that would leave A50 wolf.

[Auro]

There's no rule against it I think, still twilight.
You WERE wolf, right?

[Auro]

Check what? I obviously KNOW NOW that the Seer didn't vote NL, so that wasn't what I was talking about. It was the theory that roster is mafia. If ROSTER IS MAFIA then ,y reads have been shittier than they have ever been before.

"I... KNOW NOW... ROSTER IS MAFIA"
Signaling?

[Auro]

There's no rule against it I think, still twilight.
You WERE wolf, right?

Nope.

Then *why* did you jump straight to "Vote between me and Auro" instead of critiquing my PoE and considering other slots scum?

[Auro]

I'm not WW. :$

Why does town not having clues on ww point to me being WW? Cause I'm actively trying to solve the game? I'm not seeing the logic there. There's a possibility I would've begun to townread you and shifted to Egix (Or Roster or BuJaber or Almost50). I'm not scared of moving my vote / re-evaluating my reads...

[Auro]

Eh, you're just messing with me And hoping this gets called scum theatre

[Auro]

If you're town, my PoE would be: All scum in {Roster, Egix, BuJaber, Almost50} - containing two WW and two Mafia. Considering A50 was trying to get Egix lynched today, it's safe to say A50 and Egix are opposing factions, so I'll have to sort between the two.

[Auro]

?? Why is the thread still open??
Also this dialogue between scum reading and Auro looks forced. I wouldn't e surprised if it turns out they were both of the same faction.

I said this before the lynch.

Copy monkey.

He knows.
Also

[Auro]

I'm facepalming that you seriously think I'm a scumbuddy here.

[Auro]

I just think that scum reading has made a few posts that look like it's Scum Theatre's regional presentation of Oklahoma!

I agree, he's trying to make it look like I'm his partner.

[Auro]

Hammered.

And sure lol

[Auro]

Yes, I'll agree that if SR is town then we're on the same faction

[Auro]

Okay so A50 is definitely not the same faction as scum-reading

Definitely not? If SR is wolf this tends to point towards A50 trying to frame me as a partner, no?

[Auro]

Can we all have an accelerated night either way, please?

[Auro]

But to answer your question yes, but that doesn't make him partners with S-R. It is clear that he thinks he can implicate you and there's no reason to make it 50-50 with you if he were actually his partner. Because even if he did lynch you it would guarantee his lynch afterwards.

Bussing is detrimental except if it's the only option, is what I said. There's a difference between lol bussing D2 when town's fine with a no Lynch, and bussing when your partner's nearly definitely going to be lynched. Anyway, that's not what makes him partners alone, there's other stronger evidence.

And no, my lynch doesn't make him WW - you're still a partner candidate.

[Auro]

And also, think long-term. Tonight's kill is prob seer since if seer finds the other Wolf they're not winning; and tomorrow we are lynching mafia (Bambi's the safest lynch prolly) regardless of whether we know the final wolf solve. So if SR is wolf that brings it to 3-2-1 going into the night.

[Auro]

And no, my lynch doesn't make him WW - you're still a partner candidate.

And even Egix/Roster are, slimmer possibilities.

[Auro]

We won't wake up with 3-2-1 we'll be going into the night with 3-2-1, and wake up next day with 2-2-1 or 3-1-1.

Survivalism, if we lynched wolf today and seer finds the other wolf, a win is impossible for them.

[Auro]

And you're missing the point. You're the one specifically arguing for his lynch as the suspected partner of SR. Yes you have me and others as a choice but he seems determined to make you the fall guy. Now why would he do that if you are right about him and SR? Wouldn't that just implicate him if not tomorrow then the next day?

Not arguing for his Lynch - just saying that he's the likeliest partner ATM. He's gotten away with blatantly defending against the McQueen lynch D2; it's easier defending with me dead when he can begin to frame you/Roster whoever as the other wolf

Also he made this statement after Brass said it, so he feels it's a good attack vector.

[Auro]

FTR I'll be happy if Wolves shoot Mafia tonight

[Auro]

I'm not saying they *should* hit seer. I'm just discussing game theory, and trying to use that to figure out the game.

[Auro]

4-3-1
3-3-1
3-2-1
From here: 2-2-1 to 2-1-1 to 2-1-0 to 2-0-0 if we find final wolf
Alternatively: 3-1-1 to 3-1-0 to 3-0-0 if we gamesolve correctly; or 3-1-1 to 3-0-1 to 2-0-1 LyLo which we can win if we find the final wolf

These are our paths to win methinks

[Auro]

How can they win if it's 3-1-1?

Brass! The 3 is villa here!

I meant 3 villagers, 1 Maf, 1 Wolf.

[Auro]

Legitimately, if we wake up with 3-2-1, I am not voting, ever.

Brass' unawareness of the win-cons is more evidence for him being town

[Auro]

[Auro]

Where am I advocating an A50 lynch tomorrow? We should lynch Mafia tomorrow obviously.

[Auro]

you aren’t the one trying to prepare town for a lynch on A50 tomorrow

Also even assuming this is true: it's contingent upon you being wolf so ??