The Newbie 2d3 stats thread (upd. 2019-05-28, 87g)

[Not Known 15]

fwiw I'm actually quite surprised that the column A setups have the highest town win rates so far, as I'd very much expect it to be B over the long term (and then I'd GUESS that C has lowest town win rates though I could well be wrong).

C2 has a bafflingly high town win rate.

Well, the town win rate itself is over the roof. This is because faster games might be significantly more

town

sided.

[Not Known 15]

I kinda doubt that, personally.

Mafia in person/app is a hell of a lot faster, and town manages to lose pretty regularly.

Fair point, but that doesn't mean that the faster deadlines aren't townsided... it doesn't have to be a linear progression.
I think these deadlines are probably more townsided than the longer deadlines...

To the topic of replacements: The SE replacement rate is way too high.

[Not Known 15]

Personally, I suspect 2d3 isn't the panacea it's perceived to be.

Yes, and I suspected that... Lots of setups that are broken by massclaim D2/ have too much confirmation(all Neapolitan setups, tracker+Doctor, tracker+Cop...)
and the Mafia Rolecop is next to useless, especially with Nea+Doc.
I would actually support going to... maybe Backup6 instead...

[Not Known 15]

Some setups are imo basically unplayable as wolf without some degree of setup specific knowledge of how to approach the game

Yeah. Especially the Neapolitan setups can have a near- locked in town win Day 2 after a VT mis(!)lynch and a VT kill. A wrong move(such as claiming VT, the easiest way) can result in an unavoidable loss.
Specifically the Rolecop+Doctor+Neapolitan setup can be really horrible and is probably not even close to balanced due to the Day 2 Neapolitan claim strategy.

Here is the setup I propose:
New Newbie Setup(my variant):
2 Mafia, 1-2 Town Power roles, 5-6 Vanilla Townies

	A	B	C
Mafia	2x Mafia Goon	Mafia(Multitasking) Roleblocker and Mafia 1-shot Strongman	2x Mafia Odd-night Bulletproof
Row 1	Town Loyal Cop	Town Loyal Cop and Town Jailkeeper	Town Loyal Cop
Row 2	Town Jailkeeper	Town Loyal Cop and Town Universal Backup	Town Vigilante and Town Universal Backup
Row 3	2x Town Mason	Town Universal Backup and Town Vigilante	Town Jailkeeper

The specifics:
Column A and C have no mafia-specific knowledge necessary
Column B does not need very much specific knowledge. The only weakness here is Row 1, but at least it is impossible to mechanically clear all of the townies.

[Not Known 15]

Would it be too much pressure on the mods if Newbies become closed, but with a much smaller role pool than Normals?

There is barely enough review power for Normals. And it happens that Normals get a not so balanced setup passed. The main problem is that you want to have quick and limited games for newbies - 9p maximum - and those aren't balanced as Mountainous.

[Not Known 15]

@BNL: I agree with NK15, also there's going to be a lot more unbalance in a closed type of system, just because ppl have different standards and it's near impossible to perfectly balance stuff over long term. It adds complication that I don't think really adds value.
@NK15: allowing vigs in newbie games is a bad idea. Vig games, more than any other setup, become heavily focused on the competence of the vig player, so there's more pressure and more potential for salt fests postgame. Moreover, it opens up the chance for a scum win d2 which is overly early.

You raise a good point(although the ON BP would end N2 at earliest). I will think on how to fix that! And I think I'll use a PM to the Newbie listmod for that...

[Not Known 15]

The easiest way to fix the problems with vigs in newbie setups is to avoid having vigs in newbie setups

The essential problem with 2d3 is that high power level type setups are swingy, difficult to balance, and particularly prone towards giving higher win rates to people familiar with the system who know its fault lines and can take advantage, and lower win rates to newbies who don't know what they're doing (the more easily fixable problem is that scum are underpowered on column B, which is pretty fixable by tweaking the power levels, like turning rolecop into a JOAT of some sort [or maybe odd night roleblocker?], or turning the other goon into a 1-shot novice roleblocker, etc).

The main question is whether that's the kind of problem that ought to lead to a different design entirely, or whether that's the sort of problem that is fixable by more minor tweaking (tweaking scum power levels on column B is the simplest fix on a concept basis.

My intuitive recommendation would be to step back, see how win rates change due to removing ICs, and taking that into account when making any changes in the future.

Yeah that with the vigs is right - although it means newbies are going to miss the experience to have a town-aligned killer in the game.

I think I have identified the four core problems in these setups.
Problem 1:Too much investigative powers(Cop+Neapolitan) - these setups are extremely swingy and have too much investigative power - the value of VT reads diminishes dramatically; also problem 3 applies)
Problem 2:Nearly useless Mafia role for short setups(Mafia rolecop setups) - most of the time, the damage is already done Day 2.
Problem 3:The Doctor can lead to really swingy setups where Mafia is extremely punished for not getting the Town power roles Night 1 after a mislynch - that's not good.
The Main Problem: All together - Breaking strategies:
Neapolitan claim Day 2 when the other power role is alive:Can lead to forced counterclaims with lopsided town win chances, or outright losses if the scumteam is new and makes a mistake.

Result:
The Doctor should not be paired with a powerful role unchecked. This is asking for trouble, and makes the setups swingy and unfun. Remove the Doctor from all setups without a roleblocker. The presence of a Doctor without a counter or other mitigation is becoming rare in Mafia games. Very rare. Even the Doctor is becoming rare. The newbie setup should reflect this.

Throw it out

.
The Rolecop does not make sense in setups that aren't full of town power. Throw it out or pair it with sensible things that need investigation beyond Night 1.
Not more than one investigative town in 9 player setups. They can lead to extremely unfun play with zero real scumhunting. Put them into the trash bin.
Now this means:
Column C
1 - fine
2 - fine
3 - not good(doctor+invest+2 goons) - if the invest claims they can't get killed before the doctor
Column B
1 - Too much investigative power - and inadequate Rolecop.
2 - It's looks ok... since the Jailkeeper blocks the tracker when defending. But it can lead to game over scenarios Day 2. One guilty and a VT death at night and it's over. A bit too much reliance on Night results.
3 - Horrible. Needs to go. Mislynch Day 1 and no power role kill Night 1... and everything looks grim for Mafia - most of the time. - for more see Column A 1
Column A
1- This setup made me - a SE - salty. The investigative power of the town is through the roof. Town mislynches Day 1 happen frequently. Mafia missing town power roles Night 1, too. The difference? The one paired with the another lead to potentially catastrophic results Day 2 for Mafia more often than not here. Horrible. Needs to go.
2- Meh - at least the Mafia can actually stop the Jailkeeper. Bussing the Roleblocker is no good, but that is true for all small roleblocker setups and can be handled accordingly... at least.
3 - Worse than 2 because the Cop gets clear results. And if the Roleblocker is peeked without a Doc or cop kill or cop block - bye bye scum.

What I get from this that the simple setups are the best. Let me reflect on this.

[Not Known 15]

All that being said, there's no reason to seriously consider trashing 2d3 yet. It's worrying, and possibly worth discussing options, but the setup as a whole isn't yet proven awful.

I say it is proven awful:
It is complicated. Newbie games should not be overly complicated.
It is too hazardous to newbie scum.
It is evidently not balanced.
It invites specific role-based strategies that are extremely rare outside of semi - open games which are indeed rare.
There was a previous setup, Matrix6, and that had less issues in all these fields, except role based strategies, where the issues were roughly of the same magnitude.
There was a(in hindsight) much better replacement setup Backup6 that exchanged the 1-shot Bulletproof with an Universal Backup.
The Newbie queue should discard 2d3 because it is inferior to the old setup.

[Not Known 15]

i've played a few newbie games recently. people seem to be having fun, balanced or not. i am

can't be that bad

In my analysis, I highlighted that 2d3 has ok setups.
Some problems also occur not every time(e.g. a power role dying early or not dying early)
Newbie 1910 had cop doc rber and goon. First, it is also in Matrix 6 and Backup 6.
Second, while it may have some shortcomings with Cop dying Night 1(as it did) there is no problem for Mafia altogether.
Newbie 1907 had cop doc rber and goon and a Roleblocker lynch Day 1 and no power role death Night 2 - the quickhammer on the cop got quickly punished, and town won, but town made a setup error in lynching the Cop in the first place. As such, both Mafia were found out for mistakes and antitown play(including the horrible Roleblocker lynch on day 1 which scum needs to avoid) and no one complained to the result.
Newbie 1905 had just a cop. And I never complained on that setup.
You experienced one of the setups that is often(not always!) ok(cop doc rber goon) and one setup that is probably very ok(Cop 2x goon).
You didn't have A1 or one of the Rolecop setups.

[Not Known 15]

Cop games can lead to strategic discussion but in 9p's there is insufficient time for this.
Would those cop/JK games be imbalanced with a (Mafia)rolecop? The rolecop has shown to be highly inefficient at start, and those don't last long.
You still hunt for town PR's anyways(Cop/JK/Watcher)
So...

Cop/6 VT's vs Goon and M Rolecop
JK/6 VT's vs Goon and M Rolecop
Watcher/6 VT's vs 2 Goons

2 Masons/5 VT's vs 2 Goons

This actually is a grid, somehow - yet it fits the definition of learning while keeping excessive setup talk out. I am however not fully convinced of the last one(the Masons) since that might give us some setup stuff but I think not very complicated things(because Masons do no night actions).

Nevermind, better take the Masons out. It becomes to setup-stuff-y

[Not Known 15]

I disagree. Setups which are known to contain a Cop but not a protective role normally lead to players attempting to develop highly elaborate claiming strategies to be able to learn about the Cop result without outing the Cop themself.

This will usually not happen there.
At day 1, the cop has no result to claim.
At day 2, there was a Mafia lynch on Day 1... or the Cop has to claim anyways. If there was a Mafia lynch Day 1 you could actually go towards hypothetical claims.
At day 3 after a Mafia lynch the cop has been found out or a peeked townie is dead or town just wins. Either way, Cop claims.
Time is too short to have any claim strategies with the cop save for a Mafia lynch Day 1.

[Not Known 15]

What version of Detective are you thinking of?

It's not a standardised role on mafiascum.net

, and it's a common enough name that different sites are likely to have different meanings for it.

That's wrong.
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... Guidelines

[Not Known 15]

I have this semi-open setup; without daytalk(by default!). Also, no multitasking(in accordance with the Normal rules):

	A (6 Vanilla Townies )	B (6 Vanilla Townies )	C (5 Vanilla Townies )
Mafia	Mafia (Night 1 Ninja) Encryptor and Mafia Goon	Mafia Goon and Mafia 1-shot (Ninja Rolecop)	Mafia 1-shot (Ninja Rolecop) and Mafia (Night 1 Ninja) Encryptor
Row 1	Town Cop	Town Cop	Town Watcher and Town Jailkeeper
Row 2	Town Jailkeeper	Town Watcher	2x Town Mason
Row 3	Town Jailkeeper	Town Watcher	2x Town Mason

The Town Cop and Town Jailkeeper setups should be good enough. The Town Watcher, well, it should be good enough.
The Mafia roles look a bit more complex, but they should be still understandable.
Setup knowledge is required, required as in "Know what the enemies you might face can do". But Town cannot make any annoying claim strategies(Mafia, however, can - but that's good; after all, there should be at least one knowledgable townie who can explain that).
Generally, it is of a complexity people should be able to understand(after all, newbies can and should ask the mod how something works).
The JOAT role description, however, needs to be crystal clear about multitasking and what the Ninja modifier applies to.
(And yes, it's only 6 direct setups, row 2 and 3 are identical because of the increased odds - and those are part of the setup!)
EDIT: Removed the Strongman, I think it's better to try it out with medium extra strength to prevent doubt on the jailkeeper's results in a case of fakeclaim. Totally overlooked that. I hope that the doubt factor will keep the win rates for 1 C up. As a bonus, we also have less complexity.

[Not Known 15]

• 2 goon vs 5 vt, doctor, tracker
  
• 2 goon vs 6 vt, jailkeeper
  
• 2 goon vs 6 vt, cop
  
• goon, rolecop vs doc, jailkeeper
  
• goon, rolecop vs. tracker, jailkeeper
  
• goon, roleblocker vs. doc, cop
  
• goon, roleblocker vs. cop, tracker

Sorry... no.
1 - ok
2 - ok
3 - horrible(highly townsided)
4 - very swingy, townsided.
5 - swingy, but borderline OK.
6 - swingy and NOT ok - 2 investigatives ooof.

3 is an accident waiting to happen(JK'er is strong lategame, and Doc can allow it to survive even longer).
Look at 3 and 4 again - don't you see it? How are Tracker and Doc paired with Jailkeeper of the same strength? Doc/JK has better synergy!
6 is also BAD. Cop AND tracker? If it gets really bad you get double - investigated N1. Even one red check Night 1 or a lynch Day 1/2 and the Tracker becomes a Cop.
Generally, I foresee elaborate claim strategies for Town which is just bad.

[Not Known 15]

these are all existing 2d3 setups except the fourth (which i think is the one you are taking issue with) and the last

And 2d3 needs to be replaced... so this isn't a good argument.

What about my idea?

[Not Known 15]

2 goon vs 5 vt, doctor, tracker<--- everything gets counterclaimed
2 goon vs 6 vt, jailkeeper
2 goon vs 6 vt, cop<---singular role. If you are a Cop you know that there is nothing else.
rolecop, goon vs. 5 vt, jailkeeper, tracker< - same
rolecop, goon vs. 5 vt, jailkeeper, 1-shot cop<- CC's!
rolecop, goon vs. 7 vt; nightkill automatically fails night 2 and night 3

ummmmm that means town has three backtoback lynches and Mafia can only eliminate once. But without any confirmed town it will still be difficult for town. Not sure.

So.
Mafia cannot fakeclaim without being immediately outed except vs Jailkeeper.
Tracker always claims D2 strategy is probably good(fakeclaim chance is low). 1-shot Cop always claims D2 strategy is obviously good. Didn't we want to eliminate these strategies?

2 goon vs 5 vt, doctor, tracker
2 goon vs 6 vt, jailkeeper
2 goon vs 6 vt, cop
goon, roleblocker vs. doc, cop
goon, roleblocker vs. cop, tracker

1. Tracker always claims Day 2 is optimal unless the cop found someone.
2. Doc Cop Rber has awful newbie stats under 2d3.
At this point I'd like to say that it is the small roles that are doing so much damage(claim - wise) here. Which is exactly why I didn't include small town roles into my setup.

[Not Known 15]

night 1 ninja + 1-shot rolecop vs. watcher and jailkeeper is probably townsided
night 1 ninja + 1-shot rolecop vs. 2 masons is scumsided

it would be more straightforward to have setups labeled as "daytalk enabled/disabled" rather than having an encryptor since it's an open setup and the effect of the encryptor flip is marginal - moreover i don't really like using it as a balance consideration in a newbie setup to begin with(daytalk should probably be on by default just to make newbie experience generally less nerve-wracking)

the rest of the setups are probably fine. you should come up with a single name for "(ninja rolecop)"

Hm, ok.
I don't think that Night 1 ninja and 1-shot Rolecop vs Watcher and Jailkeeper is townsided because due to the nature of the setup watcher and jailkeeper together cannot be reliably trusted(they are not confirmed town). The Night 1 Ninja stops the Watcher; so getting outed is less likely.
Daytalk is not on by default because this allows newbies to get experience in non-daytalk setups as well, and those still exist. This allows newbies to take this into account.
About the masons... on second thought the EV won't go up much with more townies in case of Masons. And the rolecop...

	A (6 Vanilla Townies , daytalk )	B (6 Vanilla Townies , daytalk only Day 1 )	C (5 Vanilla Townies , daytalk )
Mafia	Mafia Night 1 Ninja and Mafia Goon	Mafia Goon and Mafia 1-shot (Ninja Rolecop)	Mafia 1-shot (Ninja Rolecop) and Mafia Night 1 Ninja
Row 1	Town Cop	Town Cop	Town Watcher and Town Jailkeeper
Row 2	Town Jailkeeper	Town Watcher
Row 3	Town Jailkeeper	Town Watcher

This could do it. EDIT: Actually, no. This should do it.
Pick a row, then pick a column. Column 3 can only be picked on row 1.
5 setups , 7 in total, 4 with daytalk, 3 with limited daytalk. Good chance that newbies can experience the difference between daytalk and limited daytalk.

Why do you suggest having a unique name for the (Ninja Rolecop) combination?

[Not Known 15]

I'm likely not considering a setup/setups without daytalk.

Hm. What about Day 1 daytalk?

[Not Known 15]

Hm, ok, fine, maybe not.

You can try this, but it is slightly more mafia-sided:
However, Mafia isn't multitasking!
Randomly pick a row.
Then pick a column.
If the column is empty(C), try again unless this is the fourth attempt, then the setup is 1 C.

	A (6 Vanilla Townies , daytalk )	B (6 Vanilla Townies , daytalk )	C (5 Vanilla Townies , daytalk )
Mafia	Mafia Night 1 Ninja 1-shot Rolecop and Mafia Goon	Mafia Goon and Mafia Night 1 (Ninja Rolecop)	Mafia Night 1 (Ninja Rolecop) and Mafia Night 1 Ninja 1-shot Rolecop
Row 1	Town Cop	Town Cop	Town Watcher and Town Jailkeeper
Row 2	Town Jailkeeper	Town Watcher
Row 3	Town Jailkeeper	Town Watcher

If you think this is still in the good range(it probably is) then try it out!

[Not Known 15]

I feel like the issue with newbie setups in general is that the more traditional, simpler roles are preferred.

The issue with that is that Tracker and Jailkeeper are such roles, but are also really swingy, both becoming Cops once the first Mafia dies.

I don't think it's possible to keep newbie games having both low swing and simple roles.

Yes.
However, games with more than one role run into the distinct claim strategy problem, and that's why they are usually bad(My only 2 power roles specific setup is explicitely designed into the general setup to lead to no complicated claim strategies from town unique to that specific setup.

@NK15 I think the Mafia roles are too complicated

The newbies can always ask about them. Yes, they are a bit more complicated, which means that there should be an opening post by the moderator in the Scum PT that details what these roles can do. E.g.:
Mafia Night 1 Ninja 1-shot Rolecop: This person cannot be detected Night 1(by the Watcher), and it can, once per game, including Night 1, determine a person's role. It cannot be detected Night 1 regardless of the type of action(kill, rolecop)
Mafia Night 1 (Ninja Rolecop):This person can, on Night 1, determine a person's role. If it does, they cannot be detected. If it kills Night 1, it can be detected.
You may either kill or use your role. Not both.

[Not Known 15]

It feels like towns have been getting better in Newbie games

.... or scum has been getting worse.

[Not Known 15]

Okay I think I've changed my mind for most telling stat; this one is significantly more specific (if a bit less in sample size).

(X:Y-Z = X-day D1, Y-day D2+, Z-hour prods)

The shorter deadlines have wrecked scum. (p=0.0703)

Ah, yes.
That makes perfectly sense(and it is actually something I warned about before...).

[Not Known 15]

I think Creature's complaint in a recent newbie is also a valid one on behalf of scum

I think this ^ (making scum abilities factional rather than assigning them to a slot) would be a good simple change if we're looking to keep things relatively similar to the way they are but help scum out a bit.

If there's consensus the setup has to change to help scum not git rekt, I think this is a solid answer that's ultimately minor but may very well have a good effect.

Spoiler: 2d3 modified (changes in bold)

	A	B	C
Mafia	Mafia Roleblocker	Mafia Rolecop	(none)
Row 1	Town Cop and Town Neapolitan	Town Cop and Town Tracker	Town Cop and Vanilla Townie
Row 2	Town Jailkeeper and Town Doctor	Town Jailkeeper and Town Tracker	Town Jailkeeper and Vanilla Townie
Row 3	Town Cop and Town Doctor	Town Neapolitan and Town Doctor	Town Tracker and Town Doctor

Each Newbie Game will be given a setup that incorporates one mafia

factional ability

from the top of a column, and then two town roles from a row below the selected mafia role.

The mafia is composed of

two mafia goons

, but either of them may use their factional ability each night, in addition to the mafia factional kill.

The remaining town roles will be filled in by

five vanilla townies

appropriately, to create a

2-mafia

and

7-town

setup.

All Newbie games use the Natural Action Resolution system for determining Night action effects.

Mafia Roleblocker

action takes precedence over a

Town Jailkeeper

action should that apply.

Mafia are able to communicate in their Private Topic at all times (daytalk).

Note that both goons would flip as "Mafia Goon", so town would never know (for confirmed) what PR scum has.

A weaker alternative would be to make the second goon a Universal Mafia Backup, which would still mean scum can never be without their PR, but give town information if they die first.

I think that's not effective enough. Currently, the win rates(and those are by 33% still from the more favourable long deadlines) are at about 60% for column C. And Column C would not change much!

[Not Known 15]

I think "longer deadlines = higher scum win rates" is a bit surprising in its own right (most people assume the opposite), and would suspect that there might have been other changes at around the same time (e.g. a different playerbase) that might be an alternative explanation for the change.

It is not surprising. There are different effects here:
-The Time To Get More Info and Time To Sleep Over Info effects, which drive scum win rates down. These effects diminish with more time - obviously. 7 days can give plenty of information and more information is not as helpful because you can keep track of only so much. And time to reevaluate... 7 days is plenty.
-The More Time for People To Get Bored Or Busy With RL effects, which help the scum win rate. More bored townies who just want the day to be over and do nothing are excellent for scum. This effect does NOT diminish with more time. The chances are greater that people have unexpected RL issues over the game, which helps scum. This effect INCREASES with more time avaliable.
With this in mind, it should be no longer surprising to you that, at some point, more time avaliable begins to help scum instead of town. If you go from 14 days to 10/7 days this is better for town.

[Not Known 15]

I don't think we should necessarily be pushing 50% town/scum winrates empirically in this context.

Only nea/cop and tracker/jailkeeper really to me are so bad that they really needs to fucking die now

Cop tracker is as well by winrate but I don't think it's actually worse than jailkeeper tracker.

Well, absolutely 50% isn't required.
What's important is that:
-The general setup isn't promoting breaking strategies

Neapolitan claims Day 2 if the other PR is alive strategy and Tracker claims strategies tell us that the general setup has problems

-The general setup isn't too confusing(this can be partially or fully mitigated by having premade advice in the scum PT and the general chat)
-The general setup isn't too far away from the normal play of the site(semi-opens are actually rarer than Open setups or Closed setups, but Semi-open is better because it retains aspects of both)

-The specific setups are not unfun, especially...
-... not too many potential investigations
-... not totally imbalanced(because it isn't fun to be the one who has all the odds against them)

Nea/Cop can lead to two investigations Day 2 (2 guilties, 2 innocents and its suddenly game over)
Cop/Tracker can lead to two investigations and they usually don't target the same person. And it's vs Rolecop...
Nea/Doc can lead to a very unfun D2 claim(that is a likely mechanical win when not countered), preventing scum from killing them before the Doctor. The win rate of this will likely rise.
Jailkeeper/Tracker don't match that much, but if mafia is lynched... then the second person has next to no chance, especially because its a rolecop, not a roleblocker)

[Not Known 15]

Then I went over and did a different program and just did mountainous mafia, with the same amount of skill factor, 11% chance to ignore randomization and just lynch correctly.
It came out to a 55% winrate for scum.

Well, the random lynching win rate for scum in Mountainous is about 70% so these numbers are a bit high, especially as Mountainous is considered to be more difficult(because scum can freely target the most dangerous enemy).