Prey Mafia - Game Over

[Xtoxm]

VC 3.12

[4] BrightEyedFish:

Elbirn, Persivul, Almost50, Varsoon

[2] implosion:

Chara, skitter30

[1] Persivul:

implosion

[2] Not Voting:

BrightEyedFish, mcqueen

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

The Day 3 deadline is in

: (expired on 2019-02-21 19:00:00)

Spoiler:

From: Alex Yu
To: Sylvain Bellamy
Cc:
Subject: Morgan's Solutions
Over the past several tests Morgan has used different solutions to the same problem, even though we've been controlling every possible variable. Room A, for example. In Test 9 he/she exercised precise control to move the boxes one at a time. In Test 10 he/she simultaneously levitated them all straight up a few inches, technically completing the test. Then, in 14 he/she incinerated them. If not for the safety glass, you'd be dead.
What is happening after reset that's leading to this variance?
-Alex

[Almost50]

*though I can't shake off a "minor" detail regarding Chara: Why sis they ask me -again- if my role had anything that would make Percy's check on me fail when they

know

what caused it to fail in the first place.

@skitter: I don't like that vote on implosion today. BEF flipping scum should confirm a whole lot of people (and him flipping green should confirm another lot) so its the best lynch we've got.

I know I said I'd be sheeping you, but I'd rather discuss than blindly walk myself into a loss.

[skitter30]

I really don't think he's scum though :/
My reads have not been super great this game so like ita very possible i'm wrong but i'm not seeing it rn

I do agree with the point that if he's town i'd rather the mislynch happen today than tomorrow tho
I just dont like it very much

[skitter30]

Also @a50 - if chara is scum where do you think the nk went
Also i think i may have gotten roleblocked (i dont know for sure but there's something indicating that it may have happened)

[Almost50]

Also @a50 - if chara is scum where do you think the nk went

Varsoon is an obvious pick, but "A50's moonlogic manifest" has an obscure entry about scum!Varsoon inability to vote in exchange for a nightkill. (Yeah, that's just so farfetched I shouldn't even have brought it up). Hell, I keep checking my role PM looking for something I might have missed about ANYTHING at all... including the specific phrasing of each of my 3 abilities.

[Almost50]

Also i think i may have gotten roleblocked (i dont know for sure but there's something indicating that it may have happened)

Chara also claimed having targeted you on N2. Like, please don't make me want to add you to the "not reading the game" list!

[skitter30]

i ... have no idea what that post means
honestly i don't think varsoon was townread enough to have been the nk last night
if i were scum i never would have nk'd him there

[skitter30]

Also i think i may have gotten roleblocked (i dont know for sure but there's something indicating that it may have happened)

Chara also claimed having targeted you on N2. Like, please don't make me want to add you to the "not reading the game" list!

i know, that's my point, i'm saying that i could have been roleblocked
(i don't know for sure again but something in particular points in that direction)
you were doubting chara and i'm saying that for me this makes it slightly more likely they're teling the truth about last night

[Almost50]

Usually

my logic

sends everybody reeling, but this game has managed to make me wonder if I'm dreaming in my sleep about being in a game that's so hard to solve. I probably should have my wife pinch me to make sure I am indeed awake.

[Almost50]

First

UNVOTE:

Now tell me something: Why does scum!implosion state a clear on me?

[skitter30]

scum!him's options are either to:
a) claim he never got it
b) give a result on somebody

are you saying that you think a) is more likely?
why tho?

or are you asking why you in particular? idk

@implosion: why did you check a50 in particular?

[skitter30]

also yeah this game feels kinda hard to solve, i agree

[skitter30]

what do you think of implosion's first post today knowing that he had been given a copshot n1?
i read it and it felt really off, which is why i started 20 questions
i don't know why it felt off tho

[Almost50]

Me in particular was the question, yes

[skitter30]

no idea tbh, i was wondering that
i think he said something about checking one of his nullreads or something, which is plausible

eh you had something for why scum!him doesn't do this, let me read it again

[skitter30]

@a50:
i will consult your reads and am willing to consider the notion of town!implosion but i can't promsie i'll never go after him if i still think he's scum in a dayphase or two

Remember the game with RC? Remember how implosion (and PP) were SRing me right off the bat? That's exactly what happens all the time, so it makes perfect sense for implosion to use that Cop shot on me from my PoV.

Scum!him would have NOT cleared me.

He could have claimed to have targeted just about anyone else (like Varsoon, who has already claimed a Commuter TODAY, but he didn't before, so implosion would have been justified to target him and have wasted the investigation shot).

Motives, my friend. Motives, alternative options, playstyle (meta), and MECHANICS are my tools to scum hunt, and my analysis says implosion is as Town as you and BEF are.

ok, why doesn't scum!him try to clear you?

[Almost50]

After yesterday, new reads:

{a50, BEF (moves significantly down if persivul flips town or if he doesn't verify his role)}
{skitter, chara, mcqueen}
{elbirn}
{persivul, varsoon}

First the read list looks dine to me. A clear on me + BEF at the top. If BEF is Town & Percy is scum, why would scum!implo want to lynch his buddy over the TPR. And how does he know the TPR can't prove himself?

If it's the other way around, why preemptively implicate his buddy and hint TMI on himself?

Of course, they could BOTH be Town, but -again- why the "if he doesn't verify his role" bit?

Also, (and this is important) why would scum!implp shoot in you/Varsoon if both Percy AND BEF are Town?

Why are we lynching in me/mcqueen? We went for zito because we were trying to PoE the neighborhood, and now we've been blessed with an extra mislynch and we're going to not do that??

Self preservation is NAI, and the reason for the Zito lynch is what we all did (I personally did).

If people aren't wanting to lynch persivul because of his PR claim then, eh? sure? but then why are we lynching mcqueen?? That's just throwing away the info we've gotten. If Persivul is town and we get multiple scum flips that are not typhon phantoms then we can effectively clear him.

This only looks bad IF mcqueen flips red. Otherwise it's a valid argument given his read list above.

That said, I really don't think it should be a valid reason to not lynch him especially given we have a ML to work with now. If he's town then we're losing a probably weak PR but I really don't think he is, barring a vig claiming to have shot redtea. I'm typically the person saying that it's dumb to strongly assume NK reasons but I really don't think redtea makes sense as a kill for any other reason and I find the ideas of BEF scum or scum who was lurking in the hood implausible.

This too sound okayish to me. I mean, unless implosion himself is the "Phantom". Are you saying both implo AND mcqueen are scum together? And they tried to shoot between you and Varsoon over shooting Percy?

VOTE: Persivul

Elbirn's vote on BEF makes a lot of sense he and persi are scum and mcqueen is town. I actually think the read I feel worst about out of skitter/chara/mcqueen is skitter.

At this point he didn't know you (skitter) gifted him the cop shot, so not liking his own read about you is still normal. If you don't like that try claiming you're an A50 alt in a game with a bunch of players from a certain list (that includes him) and see how you feel about it.

Ok, did I miss anything?

[Almost50]

ok, why doesn't scum!him try to clear you?

The question is why does he? He knows I'm manipulative as Town, so he either shoots me at night or tries to lynch me by day and he didn't even try to shoot me at night. Why also make me unlynchable? To what end?

Also, why is Percy still alive? Scum had no way of predicting the NK would fail, so today should have been a 5 v 3 MyLo. In that case one of BEF/Percy must be scum, because if both are town and we have been chasing our tails all along then there's every reason for scum to shoot between the two and then have us lynch the other and go into the night as 4 v 3 (i.e. Scum win).

[Varsoon]

Why does scum try to clear anyone?

[Almost50]

Why does scum try to clear anyone?

They've been gifted a Cop shot and they had to use it or fake doing so.

[skitter30]

implosion's post did kinda feel partner-y with mcqueen
and i don't like that he's prioritizing lynching inside the hood

i don't know why percy is still alive, and i don't townread his play (besides for the fact that if he's scum he's screwed after getting a town!bef lynch). i still don't think there's nearly enough investigative power tho if he's scum

oh before i forget - i think there's probably scum in the {implosion/mcqueen/elbirn} set (people who claimed vt or 'unmodifiable vt')

idk if implosion is scum who do you think a better 'check' would have been?

[Chara]

*though I can't shake off a "minor" detail regarding Chara: Why sis they ask me -again- if my role had anything that would make Percy's check on me fail when they know what caused it to fail in the first place.

couldn't hurt, right?
knowing why it failed was why i backed off of Percy after he'd claimed. if nothing else, i knew he was telling the truth about having a role that gives feedback.

about implosion scum: he makes the most sense as scum with mcqueen. that's why i'm now wondering how to proceed, because mcqueen's back and forth with me is something he seemed to really believe in.

but i feel that less now and still think it's likely they're scum together. mcqueen could have reacted that way because he didn't want to be backed into voting implosion after his Almost vote.

and i don't regret claiming, but i'm fine if skitter doesn't. i did because i felt my role was significant enough to the setup to inform the lynch today. and because i'm okay if scum kills me. or tries, anyway.

[Varsoon]

Why does scum try to clear anyone?

They've been gifted a Cop shot and they had to use it or fake doing so.

"I tried to target [literally any name] and it failed."

[Chara]

Also, why is Percy still alive? Scum had no way of predicting the NK would fail, so today should have been a 5 v 3 MyLo. In that case one of BEF/Percy must be scum, because if both are town and we have been chasing our tails all along then there's every reason for scum to shoot between the two and then have us lynch the other and go into the night as 4 v 3 (i.e. Scum win).

why would they do that when they could just not shoot either and let us lynch one?
like what's happening now?

shooting one and trying to get us to lynch the other wouldn't work, if there was scum in one of them then shooting the town one gets the scum one lynched more often than not.

if they are both town i think scum left them because both are mislynchable.

pedit: that invites questions. i think it's pretty reasonable for scum gifted with that shot to just inno a townie who wasn't getting lynched anyway but still makes a feasible cop shot. ie Almost.

[skitter30]

the most significant part of my role imo is giving out a cop shot

i have no problem claiming the rest now really (or at least, most of it) but if multiple people are saying i don't have to i guess i won't