Merchant's Daughter [Endgame]

[Something_Smart]

Sigh.

[Dannflor]

Kind of wonder about his early Urist townread, as he didn't engage much with Urists' posts about him and then Urist got IC'ed when people began to push him.

I didn't have an early Urist townread. In fact, I scum read him until he was finally pushed to write up a case on me, and then I realized he was probably conf biasing town.

[Dannflor]

@SS, has DT posted in the PT at all yet or is he MIA?

[Something_Smart]

Not since the start of second dance.

[Krazy]

Alright fuck, I think I got excited last night when reading two of DT's other games and I thought I saw something in this one that was pretty SI but now I think it might have actually been a post in one of his old games. Go me.

Anyway, I still think this is probably the path for today, but given that my case is not actually as good as I thought it was, I'm open to arguments about W-PB / M-TB pairings as well.

DT has been kinda low in my poe but not really a scumread for most of predance because I did like this post:

Spoiler:

I need to see and engage with you more

Doubting

I'm not getting your reads on

Dr. W

and

Allo

? Both people I'm suspecting at the moment?

Also I'm still confident with

Nancy

being town.

Do you have any questions for me?

i think nancy is townish too for her read on RC

i liked allo's tone

i like W's tone

it's just gut tone read. they seem to have "i dont care about what others think" and expresses opinion in a bold way

of course, scums also try to manipulate this kinda tone, but the genuinity is different slightly, imo, when they are scum and town

i mean i can answer ur questions if u have specific ones. these are where my reads came from in general tho

i also partly dont like explaining every single small things that come to my mind because

1) chances are they are wrong
2) chances are my own opinion of them change later on
3) they clog up the thread unnecessarily we honestly don't need every single detail of thoughts that I have

now, if you accept my love reqeust and we get a lovers chat, i can, of course, explain all the little things you want

Most of my reason for wanting to start with his lynch today boils down to three short posts:

aw man RC died

at least I wont tinfoil him huh

I don't like this as an authentic reaction to RC-Ank's death.

That does help me with not having to sort my partner, now I can just jam out reads

bad post is bad

I don't like that this is the only other post we've gotten since daybreak; he did post last weekend, maybe he will post later today and bring some solviness, but my main thought on this slot is "I wonder if this is scum who has realized he isn't endgaming and has decided to just stop spewing."

my strongest qualities are not reading, it's definitely presenting towniness tho

After reading some other DT scum games, this is a slightly SI post.

I've been circling back and second-guessing myself on every other pairing.

I've significantly warmed up to S_S being possible town, but there are only two pairings right now that I continually second-guess my read of both slots: DT-S_S and M-TB. Between the two pairings, I think DT might be more likely to flip scum.

Rereading DT's early game this morning still has me second-guessing myself but I haven't really liked DT's post dance and I don't like how I feel like I've heard almost nothing about DT and S_S's PT given S_S made a big point about that in pre-dance.

We haven't talked much, I think we've both been busy the past few days

It could be TI for S_S, but it could be SI for DT, I'm genuinely not sure.

But I do think DT-S_S is a solid elimination right now.


I was considering M-TB as a potential first pairing to go, because I had a few thoughts like:
A-Isn't Moment more of a 'peacemaker'? Is it possible he has been antagonistic this game and that's SI?
B-Have Moment's reads been 'too good' so far?
C-Does TB structure posts like this as scum or as town?

A-In regard to the first one, I reread Halloween's Ball, and simply put, I remember him being nicer than he actually was. His tone here hasn't been far off.
B-While Moment's reads on the four flips so far are pretty good I'm not sure I can really make this argument right now
C-I actually think TB slightly tends to write blockier posts as scum so her posts this game seem very slightly possibly townie but I'm not sure.

So I'm still second-guessing myself on that pairing first.

Then there's W-PB, and frankly since I'm just like 90% sure W flips town, I mostly have known for a week I need to actually metadive PB. My main concern for PB so far is that I feel like, when he is town, he continues roleplaying throughout the thread more. As scum, I think he shifts to being serious a bit more frequently. So I am very slightly worried that PB shifted into "serious PB" too early and that he might be scum, but given that's not a super strong reason I think I need to reflect more there.

I actually have a very minor pet theory that Gamma might be scum (it goes like this: I literally just beat Gamma on my Jenga account as scum, so she might be more motivated to win a scum game, and she seems REALLY motivated since intermission broke), but A) she's paired with the IC so I don't think she should go yet and B) I certainly don't want to punish her for being motivated when I want to see her play like this in more games because I'm really appreciating her play this game. I like her energy here.

Dancefloor I just refuse to talk about more until I see some more flips, and I'm feeling good that Taly is town. So at this point, I partly need DT-S_S's flips because I am getting sick of second-guessing my reads on those slots every morning, partly because I think DT is the most likely to flip red out of any slot in the game at this particular Moment, and partly because I think it's the strongest PoE elimination pairing in the game right now. But I'm not 100% sure there's a red flip in it so I'm welcome to counter-arguments.

That's where I'm at.

pedit: some other people commented on the PT thing while I was writing this but I'm just going to leave it as is

[Krazy]

Probably need to expand on why 4131 pings me a bit more.

Metaing DT is not super useful because his posts this game are much more snippy and succinct than either his town or scum games. I think, as either alignment, he has frequently been really lost and needed real time interaction to get a grip on the game. However *there is a chance that him being lost might be SI* and that he'd have more of an agenda as town.

The types of posts that really stand out to me in DT's scum games are posts like these:

Spoiler:

"IC_Question": What if scum plays exactly as they would if they were town? Wouldn't it be impossible to catch them?

I wouldn't say impossible. At the end of the game there's always a question of why someone is there. Night Kills generally aim for people who are either super Towny, an obvious PR or sometimes just someone who is too close to solving the game.

That being said, it can be very hard to catch a skilled scum player who has a scum range which closely emulates their town. If someone gets that reputation, people will probably just start lynching that individual before end game to be safe

It is not impossible because they have exactly different players they need to lynch to win

For example if I am in a game of 13 players, there are usually 3 scums.

Say I am town. My goal is to find 3 scums out of the 12 players, or 9 towns out of the 12 players (excluding myself)

Say I am scum. My goal is to mislynch the other 10 players (excluding myself and two teammates, total of 3 mafias in a 13 player game)

In the process, maybe I can also bus my other two teammates for some credit, but in the end I have to kill at least 7 town players as scum (because 3 towns - 3 scums is a parity win condition for scum so i need to at LEAST kill 7 players), whereas as town, I have to find and kill other 3 scum players, while in the process towns will be night killed and potentially be lynched, but I can theoretically win the game after only 5 players have died (by lynching all 3 scums back to back to back meanwhile during the nights 2 towns are being night killed)

I know that explanation kinda sucked, but that is basically the core reason.

Don't forget, during the process of the game, the logic/reasoning for one person to use for scum reading a town as a town and wolf and also scum reading a scum/bussing a scum as a town/wolf will have differences, inherently

@DoubtingThomas

Assuming you were another player in the game, would you scumread Doubtingthomas?

Would be nice if you addressed this:

Doubting Thomas is asking very general questions rather than pointed ones, that seems like being active lurking. I mean, there is a difference between asking someone what they think of the gamestate and what they think of a specific slot or a specific post. I feel like we are at the point where the questions should be specific rather than general. The questions just seem too easy.

Also, how about you? What are your thoughts on the game so far? What do you think of Roo and Volxen in particular?

I am going to be very honest with you, and this will probably seem very egotistical/over-confident and you will probably hate it and maybe use those personal feelings to scum read me but whatever

I am also going to be telling you the 100% truth and giving you this answer pretending I am another player who is completely aware of how DoubtingThomas works (well, because I am DoubtingThomas)

No, I won't for several reasons

Well, first, what brass has pointed out is very true. Asking 'general' question is an easy way for scums to make themselves

LOOK

like they are trying to solve. Brass makes an extremely good point that such questions are often >rand wolf for people, especially newer players.

He mentions also that asking "pin pointed" questions are beter than general questions. This is true. However, what he forgets is that good wolves will do townie things. Bad towns will do scummy things.

I am a pretty good wolf. Compared to my town game, I am a really good wolf. I have a pretty good win record as wolf (6-2? ish) and I have almost never been mislynched as a wolf (although I have been n1 vigged by towns two times by people who know my meta well)

The point brass is making is pretty good, and can generally be considered as kind of a "rule of thumb" especially in a newbie game like this one

But at the same time, if werewolf games were that easy, we won't have any good players right? Towns have done really dumb/anti-town things all the time. To the point where it is better for some of them to just kinda be policy lynched for being so bad.

I think I am going nowhere this pep talk. I have an issue always just rambling and talking abotu random shit that is unnecessary and that's why I don't do well in my job interviews.

Anyways, the point being, what Brass said is true to some extent. But it is not a good tell to one of the more experienced players.

Now let's go back to what I personally think about DT based on what I know.

DT has 9000 posts in a different website called Mafia Universe where he created the account mid-July of 2018. On record, he has about ~55 games played. A lot of them are turbos (which are very short 18min/6min mini games) and loves to play on 12hours/12hours phases or at the most 36/12hours phases. He subbed out of a lot of games on mafia scum when he joined a bunch couple months ago because the week long phases just was too much/boring for DT who likes to post a shitton

Given that, I think DT's overall performance here has been underwhelming for sure. However, I also know that DT

LOVES

to wolf. He loves to town too, but loves to wolf a lot more. He is also a far better wolf than town. What Brass has commented which is definitely lackluster of DT is never really a wolf tell for him. Rather, personally, I think it makes DT >rand town because he will high post and generate content as both alignment, quite frankly, but he will never be caught as a wolf for not really doing anything or trying to act fakely townie

DT will do what he does as town as a wolf. The questions he asks, the comments he make, the shitposts he writes, and the pushes he commits always come from the fact that he truly

BELIEVES

in (as a town) that or KNOWS THAT HE WILL BELIEVE it if he were town (as a wolf)

DT not posting any reads/pushes at the moment is slightly ping-y, but I am a little confused because he would have no problem just pushing people who are scummy or even if they are not scummy to see their reaction. His low content is also negative for town so I think he should start stepping his game up and start posting a lot more to carry town to the win.

Right now, I personally would list DT at "very slight scum lean" for low efforting, but secretly know that that is non alignment indicative for him and is only putting him at scum lean to see his reaction. He is a very omgus-y type of a player so that will generate reaction frmo him which will help you learn his alignment

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh

And there isn't some post here that's just like "Oh yeah, that's a scum post for DT", however thinking of these posts, and DT's tendency to kinda of narrate what 'scum would do' much more as scum than as town, and also talk about his own qualities and scum play, 4131 was a minor ping for me.

It also makes me put more scrutiny on posts like:

Spoiler:

I need to see and engage with you more

Doubting

I'm not getting your reads on

Dr. W

and

Allo

? Both people I'm suspecting at the moment?

Also I'm still confident with

Nancy

being town.

Do you have any questions for me?

i think nancy is townish too for her read on RC

i liked allo's tone

i like W's tone

it's just gut tone read. they seem to have "i dont care about what others think" and expresses opinion in a bold way

of course, scums also try to manipulate this kinda tone, but the genuinity is different slightly, imo, when they are scum and town

i mean i can answer ur questions if u have specific ones. these are where my reads came from in general tho

i also partly dont like explaining every single small things that come to my mind because

1) chances are they are wrong
2) chances are my own opinion of them change later on
3) they clog up the thread unnecessarily we honestly don't need every single detail of thoughts that I have

now, if you accept my love reqeust and we get a lovers chat, i can, of course, explain all the little things you want

Remember, this is the *main reason* I was tempted to consider a townread on DT, but actually the second half of the post is at least in the neighborhood of the sort of meta-theorizing rambling that DT does a lot as scum. This was his towniest post, and after reading his scum games, it almost pings me. So I feel like there's very few posts from DT right now where I can point to it and say, "Damn, DT is obvtown, we shouldn't lynch here."

Doesn't make him obvscum. I say this because I know Taly still wants PB first and I'm willing to hear her out there.

[Krazy]

Wrote all that shit and I'm already second guessing myself, I just don't see a stronger scumcase anywhere else so far.

[Taly]

There's a good chance it'll be tomorrow before I respond.

I just got my nails done, so I don't want to be typing a lot. (It's my first time It's this really nice, full black color.)

I need to work on my online classes a bit, and I need to exercise. But I plan an ISO group on

DT/PB/Moment

, and I want to reply to

PB

as they're most active.

[Taly]

I saw your questions, Taly. I'm phoneposting until March 'cause I'm on vacations and your posts are huge and reformatting them is a bitch from a phone. If me saying "you're wrong" is not enough after all I've done from the start of this game, then you won't change your read on me and all I can do is tell you that you're wrong, sadly. You asking me about one of my posts being relevant is like you haven't read my ISO at all. And the way you make your questioning is disencouraging 'cause it's like you won't like my answers either way.

So to summarize: I can't edit your posts to give you suitable answers; seems like you can't read me at all; and I feel like answering you would be a waste of time. Given this three things, do you think I wanna answer your questions at all?

Eh I skimmed last page and realized I needed to reply here.

Why are you assuming that I'm not going to listen to your answers? Why are you not wanting to defend or justify yourself? I haven't even voiced my read about you in full detail, and it's not a very confident one at that.

I don't know why people are writing me off as if I'm getting in their face everytime I make a post pointing out my issues with theirs or me asking a question.

This isn't fair. If I don't understand something - or it seems like I'm ignoring EVERYTHING about your ISO and posts this game, then why is it impossible trying to help me?

This is part of why I got upset with

Ved's

responses to me yesterday prior to us cooling down. How is this a town/town reaction?

If people think I'm initiating in a TvT, then I EXPECT THEM to tell me that directly so I can know when it's right to change my aproach.

I'm sorry if I discouraged you. :/ I'll just talk about my scumreads tomorrow judging off my schedule.

[Krazy]

Taly asked in our PT for some more meta on DT but I figure I should just keep it here since that's where my push is.

Instead of risking turning myself into a caricature of myself (by doing a massive wallpost going over posts from other games etc. etc.) though I'd rather just ask you guys to take the "Krazy Iso Challenge"

Here's how it works -- I provide 5 links to games with the flip not being stated
You read the first 20 posts in the iso (assuming there are that many) and make a call about what you think the flip will be
And then you make a note and go on to the next one

The idea is that if you are consistently guessing wrong, you probably shouldn't try to use meta for the player
But if you're guessing right, you can maybe solidify what you think is a tell for the player

I will do the spoilers in a future post -- can you identify someone's alignment within 20 posts of their iso?

Here's the

DT Krazy Iso Challenge:

Reminder -- the rules are, don't try to go find the flip. Just read the first 20 posts and make a call, town or scum?

Game 1: viewtopic.php?t=77101&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Game 2 -- DT replacing Lady Angel: (LA included for ref) viewtopic.php?t=78089&f=23&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Game 3 -- viewtopic.php?t=76921&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Game 4 -- viewtopic.php?t=76697&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Game 5 -- viewtopic.php?t=77105&f=54&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

I could spoiler the answers, and obviously you can just look up the answers, but I think you will be more likely to take the challenge seriously if you can't find them with just one click.

I don't promise there is an even ratio here; the selections are based on available games. So they could be all town, if the player doesn't roll town that much.

And in terms of second guessing, I will say that in setting up this exercise, I am now back to watching to lynch DT

So there's that. This thing where I end up flipping between wanting to lynch him and second guessing myself 2-3 times a day is kinda why I want a flip here because it's making it really hard to focus on other iso dives/meta dives.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Not since the start of second dance.

Great, I hope we don’t lose to inactivity. Not posting in the PT is nagl btw for either DT/Worm/moment. /: How are we supposed to sort them within knowing their reactions to the flips?

Because it’s a lot easier to be correctly sorted in a PT, than the main thread but what gets discussed in there, can make all the difference.

We have less than 8 days to solve this game - 7 now? - and not posting in the main thread doesn’t give me a lot of confidence on either any absent or non-engaging slot.

I’m just glad we got the whole coin mechanic out of the way, so at least that’s good. :/

How confident are you on DT town, all things considered obviously?

[Nancy Drew 39]

@Allo,

which gent would you choose to leave behind?

well vedith, worm and rc are my top scumreads but they are all paired. So i guess you, because you're the top unpaired scumgent.

If Allo’s brilliant reads are any indication, Worm is probably town.

[Nancy Drew 39]

@Pink Ball, can you link me to one of your scumgames? Generally I get pinged when someone is playing extremely differently than usual but I haven’t been seeing that so far but maybe Taly is seeing something I’m not?

[Taly]

OK, I've taken a breath.

I haven't played with

PB

to my knowledge - or they could be an alt that I've played with?

PB

, you said my reads are very similar to yours - but I only have 2 other people I'm thinking are scum as well at the moment. Do you think both

Moment/DT

are scum, and is there someone else you're considering?

What reads of mine are most like yours?

[Nancy Drew 39]

Countdown to deadline: 6 days, 5 hours, 38 minutes

[Nancy Drew 39]

Countdown to deadline: 6 days, 5 hours, 38 minutes

@mod, can you please prod, Worm, moment, DT?

Thanks.

[Pink Ball]

I think it's DT, Moment and one between TheBrie and SS, inclined to believe is TheBrie and aknowledging that I'm paranoid about SS but not townleaning him despite that. And Dr Worm would be the wildcard; he's the definition of null

[Pink Ball]

@Pink Ball, can you link me to one of your scumgames? Generally I get pinged when someone is playing extremely differently than usual but I haven’t been seeing that so far but maybe Taly is seeing something I’m not?

Phoneposting, complicated. But look for my first game ever, I replaced in a scum slot. My other scumgame is any rapper uPick with Slaxx modding

[Pink Ball]

@taly deciding who was defending him to mislynch him clearly implies that not everyone was doing that: you could've been defending him because you thought he was town. I want to reread to decide if I can get anything about Allo that could be useful. Yes, I was one of the players scumreading Allo and wanted him to be left out.

Also no, I said that if Urist flipped scum, I would've thought Dann was scum, not the other way. I said that 'cause the last scumgame I saw from Urist, the only push he commited to was his scumpartner

Yeah, I

could've

been defending him because I thought I was town.
I

could've

been trying to pair him to get a mislynch.

You don't make any conclusion about me when I asserted my read of

Allo

, and I don't recall anyone else defending a reason to townread him based on the gamestate.

So how about you talk to me about

Nancy/Dann

? Since you think the NK and IC choice can be WIFOM - AND because

Nancy/Dann

both scumread

Allo

- very similarly to yourself.

His "we sheep RC after he flips town" followed by RC dying

His "we sheep RC after he flips town" followed by RC dying

The whole point of that was I was so paranoid of RC I didn't want to trust his reads while he was alive... why would I then kill him as scum?

To "trust" his reads and take advantage of it

You see, I can definitely note how this is a possibility for

S_S

scum. But who do you think is associated with

S_S

if he were scum?

I didn't see people raising their hands agreeing with

S_S

in 3934, and I don't fully see your line of thinking about

S_S

being potential scum as you haven't really given a read on him Pre-Dance.

What was your original read on

S_S

what plan were you talking about with RC that showed he had a way to win this game and why did it revolve around him and Ank's death?

RC had near-lock townreads on Moment/Brie and Dann/Nancy, and the plan was simply to kill everyone except them. The problem was that RC's reads couldn't have been trusted to be 100% genuine while he was alive, so he needed to die for it to work.

Ehhhhh.... Did you townread

RC/Ank

at all? I want you to give an actual read and your assessment about the gamestate - rather than planning things and giving ideas solely based on other people's reads.

This is the post that discouraged me, Taly. You were taking everything I was saying and giving it a scummy turn. So why would I keep engaging with you if everything I say comes as scummy to you? If I'm town, I get pissed; if I'm scum, I'd rather avoid you. I'm telling you: I'm pissed and not trying to avoid you, since I explicitly stated that I read your questions and I'm not answering because of how I feel towards your pressure.

Even if you don't think so, the minute I accepted being paired with Mr. Worm I became a low hanging fruit. I was expecting other players to push me, but you're making their job right now. Not that you're pushing me hard, not even close; but you have promised a scum case on me and believe me, people will jump on it.

Vedith was townreading me and I was townreading him since the begining of the game. Could scum!Pink Ball predict that Vedith would leave the dance with Fire, other of my solid townreads? I would like to say yes, but I'm not that good

[Krazy]

I think it's DT, Moment and one between TheBrie and SS, inclined to believe is TheBrie and aknowledging that I'm paranoid about SS but not townleaning him despite that. And Dr Worm would be the wildcard; he's the definition of null

How would you feel about putting your vote on DT?

I don't want to rush people but we do need about one flip every 36 hours here at least otherwise endgame is gonna be really pressured, so I'd like to see a bit more vote movement.

[Krazy]

@Fakegod could we get a votecount too please

[Pink Ball]

Why would I vote DT before Moment/TheBrie if I'm more inclined to believe that the second is a two scum pair vs DT who is paired to someone that could be town

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 2.2

Dr Worm - Pink Ball [0] -
Krazy - Taly [0] -
Dannflor - Nancy Drew 39 [0] -
Moment - TheBrie [1] - Gamma Emerald
DoubtingThomas - Something_Smart [1] - Krazy
PvtUrist - Gamma Emerald [0] -

Not Voting [10]

- Dr Worm, Pink Ball, Taly, Dannflor, Nancy Drew 39, Moment, TheBrie, DoubtingThomas, Something_Smart, PvtUrist

With 12 alive it takes 7 votes to lynch

.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2019-02-24 01:00:00)

[Dannflor]

Hi I have a lot of thoughts but also a D&D session to do so I'll be back later tonight (5-6 hours) with more input, particularly on Brie + Moment + DT

I am a little concerned how easily people are forgetting RC had Brie/Moment as one of his near 100% T/T pairings. I'm not saying everyone has to agree with that, but the readiness with which people are willing to get rid of that pairing and forgetting about that strikes me as odd. May even be LHF precisely because of low activity. People who do scum read Moment/TheBrie in particular, could you go more in depth on those reads?

Sorry to just pop in like this but busy day. I have more to respond to and stuff to say that'll happen tonight. No more flips until I at least get to do that please

[Pink Ball]

I'm probably getting a computer tomorrow so I will try to make a good case on them, Dann. But for starters, if RC was wrong about them, killing him and Ank was exactly what they had to do 'cause someone like you would say exactly what you're saying now