[EV-ish] The effect of meta

[BNL]

3 Mafia Goons
6 Activated Innocent Children

Now this seems like a stupid setup, as it seems like a town win as they can all confirm themselves as town, PoEing the scum.

However, supposed a group of 9 players play this setup multiple times in succession. If a player establishes a meta where they always reveal themselves when town, then when they cannot reveal it confirms themselves as scum. Hence players may choose to refuse to activate the IC even when town, to give themselves a better chance when playing scum. In fact, this is still a guaranteed win if only one IC refuses to activate, so there is incentive for players to refuse to activate their IC.

Say the long run objective of the players is to win as many games as possible. What's the optimal strategy?

Say there's a further incentive to win as scum by awarding 3 points to a scum win, but only 1 point to a town win. Is the optimal strategy different here?