Merchant's Daughter [Endgame]

[Nancy Drew 39]

Like Nancy, yeah that's the end of his iso, but that was something he said right before intermission.... After having spent several posts saying Brie had to go early and that was why he didn't want moment to pair with her. He flipped his read on her like 4 times so you shouldn't just cherry pick the end of his iso when scum wouldn't.

That being said I don't know who the second scum is. I probably would go gamma next after the brie simply due to the activity ping post intermission even despite her progression on me in predance looking natural.

VOTE: thebrie

I'll hammer gamma in 4 hours if people don't want the bread first.

How was I “cherry picking”? Did you miss the post where RC wanted moment/Brie, me/Dann as the final two pairs?

[Krazy]

How was I “cherry picking”? Did you miss the post where RC wanted moment/Brie, me/Dann as the final two pairs?

No I did see that, but I reread RC's iso and he second guessed himself a lot. RC has a habit of identifying scumreads and then secondguessing himself out of them. Of the two times I rolled scum against RC, the first time he spent the entire game insisting I was lynchbait (as Nicolas Cage where I just spend the game lolcatting), and then on my other alt he initially scumread me but then I pushed him, actually in a way not totally dissimilar to how Brie pushed him here, and then he flipped his read. So I guess Brie's play here very slightly reminds me of how I play scum against RC. Doesn't mean she's lockscum, but I think bearing in mind that when RC changes his mind a bunch of times, and at one point says "alarm bells", that that's not something to just ignore even if he later calls the pairing 'locktown'.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I'm still more confident on

Gamma

solely based on the numerous points I've made and the strength of them.

I think

Brie

is scum and

Moment

is town, but it doesn't make sense for me to vote for a lower scumread versus a higher.

I do understand your POV though. Most games I've played in, there's always at least one scum lynch that I didn't initially push

(

DT

in this instance As I was the 4th vote there, even if he was a weaker scumread.)

Well, that’s what I’ve been saying, Brie has been townier than Gamma, all things considered.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I guess partly I'm also like, if somehow everything is awful and there's 0 scum in M-TB at this point, then mathematically there would have to be scum somewhere in Nancefloor and Taly. A red flip in M-TB let's us lynch Gamma knowing confidently that Pvt's 'double deepscum' theory is flawed. A double green flip in M-TB would let us know that there is a deep scum with mathematic certainty. So strategically, I feel like it makes more sense to lead into M-TB, so that we have the appropriate level of paranoia when thinking about the arguments of the proposed final 2 pairings.

I'm not sure that actually makes sense and at this point we really should just lynch the strongest scumreads and clearly for most of you that's Gamma. But I think that's one of the reasons I'm chafing just a bit with the Gamma hammer.

Pedit: Yeah, I appreciate that Taly. I think you've put a lot of thought into your case. <3

But if you think a double m/bt green flip, points to a deep wolf with certainty, and would still lynch Gamma anyway then, I’m still missing the logic here. RC had more confidence in Gamma scum than Brie scum and Brie has been objectively townier in general. So why does the order matter, especially since I think as Taly and Dann have both alredy, there’s more chance of Gamma flipping scum than Brie.

[Krazy]

But seriously, all evidence points to Brie and moment not being scum together, so if Gamma is town here, who is scum!Brie’s partner?

That's pretty much where I'm at. If Brie flipped red and Moment flipped green, I'd probably just want to lynch Gamma at that point anyway.

I basically more feel the lynch order is incorrect more than I feel like the solve is necessarily wrong. But I'm not super sure that Brie is scum, and I feel like the last time I tried to towncase Gamma I actually ended up second-guessing myself, since like 90% of the reason I think she might be town is about her play specifically in regard to me. But that part of her play isn't irrelevant; we have both played games almost entirely based around trying to pocket each other as a wincon LOL. Still I'm hardly at a point where she's 100% locktown, I mostly just feel like her wanting to be paired with me, while asking me for detailed reads in predance, all seems like stuff town gamma would do. She seemed hopeful we would pair but also wanted to be pretty confident in her read of me which I think is how she would play it as town based on our past games. Also, if her partners are DT-TB, I don't really totally understand her surge in confidence. So if Gamma is scum, but M-TB is T/T, then I'd rather hear whether Pvt thinks Taly or Dancefloor is the deep scum.

And more than anything else I'm just exhausted by this game at this point so I really don't want to keep fighting, particularly if the win simply is Gamma-TB. I guess I should have just accepted PB's idea and just scorched earthed everything I didn't strongly townread but meh, that's just not how I've been approaching this game.

(expired on 2019-02-20 18:00:21)

[Krazy]

But if you think a double m/bt green flip, points to a deep wolf with certainty, and would still lynch Gamma anyway then, I’m still missing the logic here. RC had more confidence in Gamma scum than Brie scum and Brie has been objectively townier in general. So why does the order matter, especially since I think as Taly and Dann have both alredy, there’s more chance of Gamma flipping scum than Brie.

Well, it's more who we'd have a chance to sort things with. Pvt seems to feel like there's likely a deepwolf based on his reads, so lynching him before M-TB means we don't get a chance to evaluate his reads when there is total confidence that there is one. I guess it kinda depends on whether you think his perspective would be worth having after a M-TB flip.

[Nancy Drew 39]

<3

It's either you or

Moment

casting the vote now. XP I think the entire town is on the same page.

I trusted you on your case to

DT

and it's kind of funny how we're in opposite positions with

Gamma

now. XD

DT was open wolfing, like I keep saying. That’s why I couldn’t understand how close the DT/Brie wagons were, before it suddenly went belly up and DT got hammered. Why didn’t DT just post in his PT and let Brie get lynched over him?

Or maybe that was just scum WIFOM to save someone else? But I think DT had a decent chance of not being lynched if he hadn’t been open wolfing, so I’m still very confused by it all. My head is hurting.

[Nancy Drew 39]

How was I “cherry picking”? Did you miss the post where RC wanted moment/Brie, me/Dann as the final two pairs?

No I did see that, but I reread RC's iso and he second guessed himself a lot. RC has a habit of identifying scumreads and then secondguessing himself out of them. Of the two times I rolled scum against RC, the first time he spent the entire game insisting I was lynchbait (as Nicolas Cage where I just spend the game lolcatting), and then on my other alt he initially scumread me but then I pushed him, actually in a way not totally dissimilar to how Brie pushed him here, and then he flipped his read. So I guess Brie's play here very slightly reminds me of how I play scum against RC. Doesn't mean she's lockscum, but I think bearing in mind that when RC changes his mind a bunch of times, and at one point says "alarm bells", that that's not something to just ignore even if he later calls the pairing 'locktown'.

So, what do you want to do then? Gamma or Brie?

I’m getting really confused now.

We have to make a decision. Ideally, the clock would not be ticking and we could wait for moment to weigh in, because I’d really like his input.

So, I hate that this time pressure is making that a problem. :/

[Taly]

DT+Gamma

could've pre-planned a

Brie

bus-lynch so they can acquire townreads - because it seemed to be the easiest PoE option out of their 3 pairs to campaign.

None of their 3 pairs were townread, and were the last 3 pairs made. It was sensible to think one of their pairs would be targeted to get lynched first - and so that was the narrative they pushed forth.

I don't know if

DT

was protecting anyone but

Gamma

, who he kept distancing from while he voted

Brie

.

When

DT

became the most likely to lynch when both of our pairs

Dancy/Kaly

had voted him,

Gamma

and then

Brie

jumped onto that wagon.

The

DT

lynch forced scum to redirect their plan to a partner they didn't want to lynch. I assume that's why

Gamma

was pretty silent after

DT's

scumflip until I proposed an associative between them.

TheBrie

has really only responded to the gamestate when it was relevant to her, and I've seen her towngame as well - she's typically far more focused and willing to solve the game rather than let it be played while she stands by with otherwise minimal thoughts.

Gamma

is the best lynch right now since he's collective the strongest scumread. I don't think we'd get 5 votes for

Brie

like we do for

Gamma

here.

[Nancy Drew 39]

But seriously, all evidence points to Brie and moment not being scum together, so if Gamma is town here, who is scum!Brie’s partner?

That's pretty much where I'm at. If Brie flipped red and Moment flipped green, I'd probably just want to lynch Gamma at that point anyway.

I basically more feel the lynch order is incorrect more than I feel like the solve is necessarily wrong. But I'm not super sure that Brie is scum, and I feel like the last time I tried to towncase Gamma I actually ended up second-guessing myself, since like 90% of the reason I think she might be town is about her play specifically in regard to me. But that part of her play isn't irrelevant; we have both played games almost entirely based around trying to pocket each other as a wincon LOL. Still I'm hardly at a point where she's 100% locktown, I mostly just feel like her wanting to be paired with me, while asking me for detailed reads in predance, all seems like stuff town gamma would do. She seemed hopeful we would pair but also wanted to be pretty confident in her read of me which I think is how she would play it as town based on our past games. Also, if her partners are DT-TB, I don't really totally understand her surge in confidence. So if Gamma is scum, but M-TB is T/T, then I'd rather hear whether Pvt thinks Taly or Dancefloor is the deep scum.

And more than anything else I'm just exhausted by this game at this point so I really don't want to keep fighting, particularly if the win simply is Gamma-TB. I guess I should have just accepted PB's idea and just scorched earthed everything I didn't strongly townread but meh, that's just not how I've been approaching this game.

(expired on 2019-02-20 18:00:21)

I would really prefer to hear what moment thinks about Brie vs. Gamma and if we had more time, I’d insist on it. Unfortunately, we don’t have that luxury and I hope that he either posts his thoughts soon or we’re just right, either way. I don’t know what else we can do. \_0_/

[Taly]

My WIM falls a little bit the longer

Gamma/Urist

stay alive.

I've 1v1ed so many times but it's very rare for me to have such a one-sided 1v2.

That sounds bad but it's true.

[Nancy Drew 39]

But if you think a double m/bt green flip, points to a deep wolf with certainty, and would still lynch Gamma anyway then, I’m still missing the logic here. RC had more confidence in Gamma scum than Brie scum and Brie has been objectively townier in general. So why does the order matter, especially since I think as Taly and Dann have both alredy, there’s more chance of Gamma flipping scum than Brie.

Well, it's more who we'd have a chance to sort things with. Pvt seems to feel like there's likely a deepwolf based on his reads, so lynching him before M-TB means we don't get a chance to evaluate his reads when there is total confidence that there is one. I guess it kinda depends on whether you think his perspective would be worth having after a M-TB flip.

Well we will lose either one of Urist’s/moment’s perspectives in any case, once we hammer on either. If moment were more active, that would be an easier decision. Can we afford to wait to hear from moment first, because that would be ideal?

[TheBrie]

Pvt

, suppose Gamma does flip scum. Who would you say is most likely Gamma partner?
Cause Gamma is probably going to be lynched, and it's best you have your say.

[TheBrie]

I don't think Moment has been reading much, so I don't know his opinions will be all that helpful.

[Krazy]

I've 1v1ed so many times but it's very rare for me to have such a one-sided 1v2.

That sounds bad but it's true.

I know it felt like that last night but I imagine Pvt feels like this is a 5v2, which has gotta feel weird since he's the IC

I guess it would help if he had said something like, "Man Gamma really seemed to be trying to sort me pre-intermission, there's no way she was scum that just planned to IC me"... but it seems like they probably just didn't talk or barely talked at all. Doesn't make this any easier.

Also there's part of me that thinks DT-Moment makes sense if DT really had no idea wtf was going on so even though I've kinda thought he might be town sometimes, there is a chance the scum team just totally fell apart. Still leaves the question of who Moment's partner would be, though. And I probably would at that point just agree with you anyway that Gamma was the next best choice. So for me M-TB are two separate slots I've second guessed a lot which increases my desire to just see their flips.

[Krazy]

Brie, if we flip Gamma and she flips green, what is the path from there in your view? Would Moment at that point be your top FoS?

[Nancy Drew 39]

DT+Gamma

could've pre-planned a

Brie

bus-lynch so they can acquire townreads - because it seemed to be the easiest PoE option out of their 3 pairs to campaign.

None of their 3 pairs were townread, and were the last 3 pairs made. It was sensible to think one of their pairs would be targeted to get lynched first - and so that was the narrative they pushed forth.

I don't know if

DT

was protecting anyone but

Gamma

, who he kept distancing from while he voted

Brie

.

When

DT

became the most likely to lynch when both of our pairs

Dancy/Kaly

had voted him,

Gamma

and then

Brie

jumped onto that wagon.

The

DT

lynch forced scum to redirect their plan to a partner they didn't want to lynch. I assume that's why

Gamma

was pretty silent after

DT's

scumflip until I proposed an associative between them.

TheBrie

has really only responded to the gamestate when it was relevant to her, and I've seen her towngame as well - she's typically far more focused and willing to solve the game rather than let it be played while she stands by with otherwise minimal thoughts.

Gamma

is the best lynch right now since he's collective the strongest scumread. I don't think we'd get 5 votes for

Brie

like we do for

Gamma

here.

DT could have absolutely been protecting Gamma but I don’t recall anyone proposing Gamma be the first lynch, so I don’t think we can rule out that someone who was being pushed instead of DT was one of his buddies either. The only ones who were not being pushed to be lynched over DT (who are still in the game) - by ANYONE - was you, Dann, me; correct?

[Nancy Drew 39]

My WIM falls a little bit the longer

Gamma/Urist

stay alive.

I've 1v1ed so many times but it's very rare for me to have such a one-sided 1v2.

That sounds bad but it's true.

Well, I’m trusting you and RC reads, plus I agree with you and Dann, that Gamma is greater scum equity than Brie.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I don't think Moment has been reading much, so I don't know his opinions will be all that helpful.

I disagree. I think he has a really good grasp of the gamestate, despite that. Like I’ve already said, if time weren’t an issue, I’d insist on it.

How about you Brie? Who do you think is Gamma’s likely partner? Why don’t you have an opinion on that?

[Nancy Drew 39]

I've 1v1ed so many times but it's very rare for me to have such a one-sided 1v2.

That sounds bad but it's true.

I know it felt like that last night but I imagine Pvt feels like this is a 5v2, which has gotta feel weird since he's the IC

I guess it would help if he had said something like, "Man Gamma really seemed to be trying to sort me pre-intermission, there's no way she was scum that just planned to IC me"... but it seems like they probably just didn't talk or barely talked at all. Doesn't make this any easier.

Also there's part of me that thinks DT-Moment makes sense if DT really had no idea wtf was going on so even though I've kinda thought he might be town sometimes, there is a chance the scum team just totally fell apart. Still leaves the question of who Moment's partner would be, though. And I probably would at that point just agree with you anyway that Gamma was the next best choice. So for me M-TB are two separate slots I've second guessed a lot which increases my desire to just see their flips.

RC locktown’d moment. As Urist has said, what reasons do you have for thinking moment is scum here?

[Nancy Drew 39]

Also if anyone has scumreads on Moment

other than inactivity

, do tell.

@Krazy

[Krazy]

Taly can you translate what is going on in this game when you get a chance -- viewtopic.php?t=78138&f=84&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

am I right in understanding that this is simultaneously a town and scum game for you?

[Krazy]

{Dannflor, Dr Worm, Vedith, Ankamius, Firebringer, SS, TheBrie, Taly} town.

That leaves {PvtUrist, Krazy, RC, Allomancer, DT, Nancy, Gamma, Pink Ball}.

That's right, I should go reread Moment in Witches Ball again. My main concern with Moment so far this game is him not being demonstrably wrong about anything yet. Maybe I'm just jealous? I just don't get how he got SS town, Vedith town within 30 posts of his iso. Like, strong game for him I guess if he's green.

[Krazy]

Witches ball -- Moment

First post:

I'm leaning Gamma Emerald and Sakura scum for now.

It's slightly bothering me that people aren't seeming to take this seriously - even if you don't care about winning, you don't have to sabotage everyone else's chances of winning.

Presentation of a read as part of a typical post:

Spoiler:

I'm liking Karmeleon a bit better for town now.

---

like the double entendre.

That’s not a double entendre

I thought he was trying to say "leave the lynches to the will of the group" when he said groupthink rather than specifically to the psychological concept of groupthink, which would've made it a double entendre. Perhaps not.

---

I don't advocate for the use of suicide bombers in every game, either (unless I'm scum as a desperation tactic, perhaps)

I believe she was referring to the risk of being wrong in every mafia game rather than the risk of suicide bombing in every game.

---

LLD, what's your read on me currently? You seemed poised for something dramatic with your line of questioning towards me - I'm interested in what you're thinking.

More Moment reads:

i rly like brian skies

Really? I've actually been getting the feeling that he's scum here.

At least, he doesn't seem similar at all to any of the games I've played with him where over time it just became apparent that he was town and was never really a question at all.
[cut other stuff]

I think Dunnstral, SirCakez, Karmeleon, and shotaru are town.

If other people are confident in their ability to read Kokichi and say that he's town then I'll accept that (while also looking bitterly back at the people who said something similar about Maria in Forgotten Hourglass).
That leaves Gamma and Brian from the Gentlemen.

I don't have reasons to think Maria is town but I haven't noticed her being scum yet. For now I'll take that as her just being town rather than my not reading closely enough to have noticed her being scum. Sakura Hana is town, and ChibiBear seems town to me. Actually, that leaves me with a lot more left over Ladies than I thought.

I seem to be the minority opinion when it comes to not townreading DVa (and perhaps LLD?)

.

*in summary, he was wrong on two reads in his first post, wrong about shortaru throughout the game, and wrong on scattered reads everywhere else.

He also doesn't really present full groupings of the player list like he did in 2603 this game.

Basically, 2603 bugs me because... Moment is either having a

really strong

towngame, or he is playing like House did in Witches Ball and just trying to get every single read correct and project confidence in those reads he knows are correct.

But, as I have said, it could just be that Moment has been having a really good game. I honestly don't know.

[Krazy]

Basically I've been asking myself this whole game if the Moment who wrote 2603 in this game is the same Moment that thought Brian Skies, Gamma Emerald, and Sakura were scum in Witches Ball.