Anime U-Pick: King Size [SEASON FINALE...?]

[mastina]

mastina and myself aren't touching you, I think

At least not right now.
I owe Reasonably Psychotic another look because if memory serves, both Ankamius and Severa were giving Cerb a look, but it's correct to say that without reevaluating I'm not touching them.

I can't say the same post-reevaluation, it really depends.
Basically, not touching them now because they are personally not someone I am suspicious of, but can't promise I won't touch them after reevaluation. We'll have to see what said reevaluation tells me.

At least, not anything compelling enough that I bothered keeping it in mind.

I made a case; Dunnstral made a case; Near x Mello made a case; all of these were individual efforts approaching the slot from multiple angles.

[Reasonably Psychotic]

that statement by rp was awful. SN has barely been here to know which wagon is likely to go through

Seeing you agree is more awful

~Near

...

You're missing the point. The fact that they haven't been here long enough to be aware of the game state yet unerringly zeroed in on the most viable counterwagon to their own lynch is weak evidence of coaching/input from their teammates on how to save that slot for whoever the replacement was.

-Yukiteru

[Near x Mello]

i dont agree youre "the most viable counterwagon", thats your own manipulative words to make your point

~Near

[mastina]

It *IS* a pretty grievous failing on the part of everyone, including myself, to not conclude that Toog made more sense as town than scum because their action guaranteed their lynch on D3 if scum.

Yeah no.
Toogeloo regardless of alignment was going to claim he was going to die N2 if targeted.

With him having a role that died N2 if targeted.
As scum.
He would need to tell people this fact.

He would need to tell people this fact, because if he didn't want to die, he needed this information to be public. Because the chances he'd be targeted N2 were quite high.

Toogeloo fakeclaimed as town, possible but punishable by lynch.
Toogeloo fakeclaimed as scum, possible but punishable by lynch.
Toogeloo realclaimed as town, what happened, and deserving of being tested.
Toogeloo realclaimed as scum, possible, and deserving of being tested.

Those were the only four options.
Option #2 was less likely, sure.
But option #4 wasn't. Don't pretend it was just because Toogeloo did in fact flip town.
There's no universe where a scum Toogeloo WOULDN'T claim that role when possessing it.
So don't pretend there was.

[mastina]

I actually think it might be town indicative. Their drive has just enough of an "eager townie chasing his own tail" vibe to it.

It's really not.
It's a cheap, easy avenue to chase after, and one which as Near x Mello points out, is entirely more likely to be going after exclusively town names.

Scum didn't have to target Toogeloo; they'd let the town do that work for them.
So chasing after those who targeted Toogeloo is chasing after players who are town.
It's an easy push, one which requires no effort to make, and it is a push on town, one which is safe to make.

[Reasonably Psychotic]

i dont agree youre "the most viable counterwagon", thats your own manipulative words to make your point

~Near

Oh?

Who is more viable?

Do you know *how* I avoid getting lynched, Wisdom? It's because even when I'm not tryharding, I'm VERY aware of the thread sentiment and likelihood to get a lynch on, well, just about anyone, but ESPECIALLY myself.

Without Torque and Mastina pushing, we're super unlikely to lynch me today, but with them(and with that being the game state known at EoD, particularly given that members of Mastina's PoE flipped town, therefore making it likely that she'd work up the list towards my slot), a lynch on me looked pretty easy.

I don't think this is at all relevant though. You're welcome to keep attempting to spin my words as scummy with your pithy one liners, that's your MO, but there are better ways for us to all spend our time.

Elena requires a read, which I planned on doing yesterday and never ended up doing, so I can't speak on her likelihood of being scum, but I can say she's definitely not scum with myself. *shrug*

-Yukiteru

[Reasonably Psychotic]

It *IS* a pretty grievous failing on the part of everyone, including myself, to not conclude that Toog made more sense as town than scum because their action guaranteed their lynch on D3 if scum.

Yeah no.
Toogeloo regardless of alignment was going to claim he was going to die N2 if targeted.

With him having a role that died N2 if targeted.
As scum.
He would need to tell people this fact.

He would need to tell people this fact, because if he didn't want to die, he needed this information to be public. Because the chances he'd be targeted N2 were quite high.

Toogeloo fakeclaimed as town, possible but punishable by lynch.
Toogeloo fakeclaimed as scum, possible but punishable by lynch.
Toogeloo realclaimed as town, what happened, and deserving of being tested.
Toogeloo realclaimed as scum, possible, and deserving of being tested.

Those were the only four options.
Option #2 was less likely, sure.
But option #4 wasn't. Don't pretend it was just because Toogeloo did in fact flip town.
There's no universe where a scum Toogeloo WOULDN'T claim that role when possessing it.
So don't pretend there was.

I think the problem with your reasoning is that for scum!toogeloo with this role, the chances of being targeted N2 are much higher if everyone knows about it, and they gain suspicion if they live through the night and always die D3. Your 4 possibilities are correct, but you're not properly weighting the pro's and cons of those choices from a scum!toogeloo perspective; that is, WE, AS A WHOLE, did not properly weigh those things.

-Yukiteru

[SuperfluousNinja]

So, singletonking was in the channel Torque and I did; the reason he died is that he targeted Severa, and per singleton's PM, that means Severa's death killed singleton.
I among others targeted Toogeloo, explaining that death.

Sure, and in doing so, you wasted your supposed town ability, as did anyone else who followed your lead. Well played.

Am I supposed to believe that with the excessive amount of thinking and analysis you have done so far in this game, it didn’t occur to you to try and figure out why Toog revealed this about himself? Can you explain why you weren’t at all suspicious of targeting a player who you thought was scum and told you exactly how to kill him? Why wouldn’t it occur to you that this could be a trap?

[Torque]

@RP

mastina and myself aren't touching you, I think

Why is RP town?

~Near

Because RP doesn't sound like they're playing with manipulation or an agenda. They feel like they are more interested in figuring out players rather than controlling them. And I've been informed Cerb is compulsively scheming bastard when he players scum.

[mastina]

mastina youve been wrong on both toog and fl. Is it time to apply bop yet?

On every front, no;
I have never been a player to which Burden of Proficiency is an applicable measurement of alignment, except by the metric of "I'd be more competent than this if I were scum";
I have stated that this is a game won by having a tight townbloc formed of rock-solid townreads, meaning that bop would only be applicable if I was wrong about a townread;
All of my townreads thusfar have been shown to be correct, from Drixx to Spike/Jet to singletonking to Ankamius.

It will be time to apply burden of proficiency when I get a townread wrong, sure.
But I haven't yet.

I already told you, for instance, that I knew my scumreads weren't going to hit the mark, even if the poe pool process was correct.
I stand by the poe pool process being correct, but I need to fine-tune it, which'll take time. (Time I don't have today, but will have within half a week. Like, Friday/Saturdayish.)

I am still in that thread, and still able to post both there and in the main thread, though.

My mistake. I thought you had the fairly-common-theme-role of disappearing for an entire day phase to only reappear after the conclusion thereof. (You know the type, Varsoon's fond of it among other mods.)

Mastina: Same question, but about your loved modifier.

My role was female-targeting, so when I targeted Toogeloo, my action failed anyway because he was male. It wasn't part of my role. I only have two abilities (the first which I fullclaimed to my neighborhood), and the second (also mostly claimed to my neighborhood) unlocks tonight (and is not a self-targeting ability, quite the opposite in fact), so couldn't be the cause of the Loved. It also can't be because of a role switch, because that doesn't happen until tonight, either. (Mind you, I kinda sorta suspect someone maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyy have an alt-role which ties to my current role, but again. Even if so, that's not something that'd have triggered yet.)

[mastina]

that statement by rp was awful. SN has barely been here to know which wagon is likely to go through

Scumchat's a thing.
Even if daychat isn't.
SuperfluousNinja replaced in during the night.
And has access to however much talk has happened in each and every PT they have access to.

If in scumchat.
Or, heck.
If in a neighborhood which SuperfluousNinja has access to.
It was discussed that Reasonably Psychotic is someone that people are suspicious of.

SuperfluousNinja would be well-informed of this fact.

Also, there's the chance that SuperfluousNinja simply is faking the amount of knowledge they possess, having read more than they have implied.

So yes.
SuperfluousNinja would be well aware of this fact.

[Reasonably Psychotic]

@RP

mastina and myself aren't touching you, I think

Why is RP town?

~Near

Because RP doesn't sound like they're playing with manipulation or an agenda. They feel like they are more interested in figuring out players rather than controlling them.

And I've been informed Cerb is compulsively scheming bastard when he players scum.

AWW THANK YOU <3

-Yukiteru

[Chito and Yuuri]

Chito: In channel 5, Almost 50 claimed that he has a post restriction for about (expired on 2019-03-06 06:50:42) that prevents him from posting in this main game thread. He can, however, post in Channel 5.

So I can relay messages for him, for instance, he DEFINITELY said:

Chito and Yuuri are the best! OMG I am the biggest fan of Chito and Yuuri! They are soooo~~~ great! Yay!

Definitely the first thing he told me to say today.

[Torque]

^subtly saying "this guy was wrong on severa, you shouldn't listen"

~Near

Naw. If it seemed likely that Severa was a scum kill, then that's a really good point, but otherwise...not so much. Of course, in that scenario you'd have to ignore the fact that scum!me is actually way better at this game than town me, and everything that implies.

I want to go back to this whole Toog thing. I need to read up on how this went down, but if I understand this correctly, at some point he freely told everyone that his role is such that if he gets targeted N2, he will die.

I legitimately do not understand why any townie would use a night action on him to kill him. Consider the two scenarios:

If a town player thinks he really is town, then why would this player want to kill town? Furthermore, why would this player want to waste his ability which is almost certainly much more than “Target a player so you can trigger some effect he may have”?

If a town player had any suspicions at all and thought he might NOT be town, then you would have to believe that a scum player, whose primary goal in this game is to stay alive, openly told everyone exactly how to kill him without even needing to lynch him. Furthermore, you would have to trust that there was no twist in killing him by targeting him to kill him, and it ought to be obvious that the only reason a scum would want to be targeted by a night action would be if he had an ability that allowed him to mess up whoever targeted him. In short, if he’s scum, logic would dictate that it’s a trap.

So I am highly suspicious of anyone who claims to be town and targeted him last night, as well as highly suspicious of anyone who thought what happened here was NBD and not worth discussing. I.E. the guy I’m currently voting for.

Check Mastina's ISO on the reasoning for targeting Toog; essentially in her PoE(and others) they had a decent chance of being scum, and were likely to be lynched, so more efficient to target them and remove them at night if they were a mislynch just waiting ot happen; if they were scum and lying, then caught scum. It was basically viewed as any action on them was a shot that would confirm them as scum or kill them, with killing them being something that would happen via lynch at some point.

It is, however, a bit weird that nobody(including myself, but I give myself a pass for not really paying attention) actually questioned why scum would make a statement that guaranteed their lynch on D3 if still alive. Nobody even really mentioned that it could be a wifom thing...so yeah.

You are welcome to, in the course of reading the game, find the people who were planning on targeting Toog.

-Yukiteru

For what its worth, I warned people in my channel that if Toog is a wolf then he's a PGO
Did you also visit him? sorry if you mention it already

[Torque]

my grammar sucks ass today

[mastina]

I was noting what NxM is, that part of your PoE pool has been established as town, and asking if you were going to reevaluate said pool/what changes you were making.

The POE pool was always comprised of more players than there were going to be scum.

That guaranteed that there were town within the poe pool.

It's a given that players being town within the poe pool, then, wouldn't, in of itself, cause me to reevaluate the pool.

However, in tandem with the players who died, having died--I owe it to them to do so.

But that'll take time I don't have right now.

SuperfluousNinja stays in the poe pool regardless; I can tell you that now. Severa's townread there was dependent on Spike and Jet being scum; they were not. Ankamius prior to sheeping Severa supported the lynch on SuperfluousNinja, as far as I can tell. Unless the neighborhood with them tells me that one/both of them townread the slot during the night, I don't have reason off of faith-trusting them not to keep pursuing this read, because the read has a SOLID basis to it.

Robert's posting indicated scum; Robert's flake indicated scum; ooba's flake indicated scum; SuperfluousNinja's posting indicates scum.

I realize that there are more scum in the game than SuperfluousNinja--and I realize that I need to reevaluate the poe pool to narrow it down on who those would be. But I need time to go over things, in particular, reads like Almost50. Ankamius who I trust last I knew told me he wasn't scum, but Severa last I knew was saying he was scum; Almost50's Not Voting status I found incredibly suspect, in tandem with him having been in my POE pool, so what that read comes down to, basically, is whether I trust Ankamius or trust Severa plus myself.

As just one example of a read I need to investigate more. I don't have that kind of time today; I'll have it within half a week.

[mastina]

You're missing the point. The fact that they haven't been here long enough to be aware of the game state yet unerringly zeroed in on the most viable counterwagon to their own lynch is weak evidence of coaching/input from their teammates on how to save that slot for whoever the replacement was.

Pretty much, yeah.

i dont agree youre "the most viable counterwagon", thats your own manipulative words to make your point

Okay.

Who is, then?
With Toogeloo and Severa both dead at night.

Who is the most viable counterwagon to SuperfluousNinja?

Name names, here.

Because Reasonably Psychotic is a damn fucking plausible one in my eyes. Suspicion has been on the slot all game, and from notable players no less; I pushed it until midway through D2, and both Severa and Ankamius (dead town players notable for being charismatic) pushed them as possible scum as well, meaning that people performing NKA are likely to finger Reasonably Psychotic as scum.

Who would you name as a more probable counterwagon? The list of options is quite thin. Especially since counterwagons are going to, by the standard of "counterwagon to the scum wagon", being likely not to be on scum.
So if you think that, for instance, hypothetically, Elena and SuperfluousNinja would be scum together, then Elena's disqualified from being a viable counterwagon to SuperfluousNinja.

[Torque]

more than anything else sn; youre arguing town wouldn't target toog because that looks stupid to do.

Given that town do stupid things all the time, its silly to make that assumption and use it as basis for anything

Town won't play like youd want them to.

~Near

Oof. Your counter-argument is that town is stupid? I just perused through Mastina’s ISO who was apparently a leading proponent of targeting him at night. Mastina is clearly not at all stupid...Mastina has been one of the biggest and most detailed contributors to this game. It cannot both be true that Mastina is stupid and that your angle here is legitimate.

Mastina has her reasons to not care if Toog's claim is a scum gambit, it's not actually AI

I mean I could see Mastina is a wolf trapping people with her PoE pool but it's not something we should pursue today.

By that I mean, Mastina being a wolf means Vedith is bussed. You don't figure out if Vedith is bussed by lynching on his wagon first, thats stupid.

(go look at Vedith lynch stuff if you haven't)

[mastina]

It *IS* a pretty grievous failing on the part of everyone, including myself, to not conclude that Toog made more sense as town than scum because their action guaranteed their lynch on D3 if scum.

Yeah no.
Toogeloo regardless of alignment was going to claim he was going to die N2 if targeted.

With him having a role that died N2 if targeted.
As scum.
He would need to tell people this fact.

He would need to tell people this fact, because if he didn't want to die, he needed this information to be public. Because the chances he'd be targeted N2 were quite high.

Toogeloo fakeclaimed as town, possible but punishable by lynch.
Toogeloo fakeclaimed as scum, possible but punishable by lynch.
Toogeloo realclaimed as town, what happened, and deserving of being tested.
Toogeloo realclaimed as scum, possible, and deserving of being tested.

Those were the only four options.
Option #2 was less likely, sure.
But option #4 wasn't. Don't pretend it was just because Toogeloo did in fact flip town.
There's no universe where a scum Toogeloo WOULDN'T claim that role when possessing it.
So don't pretend there was.

And if you think this is post-flip logic.

I detailed this exact process in the neighborhood on D2.

I knew precisely what I was doing, when targeting him.
I was perfectly aware that he as scum wasn't going to fakeclaim something provable/testable that would lead to his death. (Barring pgo, that is, which I wasn't afraid of for ~reasons~. Reasons my neighborhood know of.)
I didn't care, because that scenario not being the case didn't make Toogeloo more likely town. It just meant that Toogeloo didn't take one possible path which was available to him if he were scum.

[Torque]

you misunderstand. People arent stupid, they just do stupid stuff because they think they're smart and theyve solved everything

Their actions are stupid, not themselves

~Near

This is not at all a convincing argument.

VOTE: Near x Mello

I feel like this is scum theater lmao

Why does the argument not being convincing mean near x mello is scum tho

[Torque]

how does a mastina/rp/elena team sound, guys?

Mastina pushes rp but forgets about it and starts tunneling town, and keeps elena as a townread for bs reasons. Elena and rp already made sense as buddies. I like it.

~Near

Sure

Can we actually lynch sn first because that slot sucks and voted pink ball

[mastina]

I think the problem with your reasoning is that for scum!toogeloo with this role, the chances of being targeted N2 are much higher if everyone knows about it

Why?

Why, in of itself, would claiming that role.
Divorced from all other factors.
Make people want to target Toogeloo?

When in tandem with Toogeloo's play, yes, it would.
Because people were scumreading Toogeloo.
But remove the scumread from the equation, because Toogeloo gained suspicion as time passed. (He was virtually inconspicuous on D1; nobody was paying attention to him until after his claim, pretty much.)
Why would the claim, in of itself, cause people to target him?
What if, instead of him being scumread, he ended up being townread?

Would the town then be targeting him after that claim?

No, they would avoid targeting him, knowing it'd be killing 'town'.

Toogeloo's claim made perfect sense coming from scum actually having that role, because as scum with that role, he would need to claim it. And if he successfully garnered townreads, then he wouldn't be targeted.

That's not a stretch. That's perfectly logical, viable scumplay. His claim of his role came prior to the attention on his slot by and large. He had no way of anticipating people would want him dead that badly because of his play.

It was, ultimately, not the case; Toogeloo was in fact town.
It did not mean the logic was weak/suspect.

It's another case, in fact, of the points being objectively fine/good, but also not being right. (Same metric which I gauged Pink Ball by, mind you.)

[Reasonably Psychotic]

^subtly saying "this guy was wrong on severa, you shouldn't listen"

~Near

Naw. If it seemed likely that Severa was a scum kill, then that's a really good point, but otherwise...not so much. Of course, in that scenario you'd have to ignore the fact that scum!me is actually way better at this game than town me, and everything that implies.

I want to go back to this whole Toog thing. I need to read up on how this went down, but if I understand this correctly, at some point he freely told everyone that his role is such that if he gets targeted N2, he will die.

I legitimately do not understand why any townie would use a night action on him to kill him. Consider the two scenarios:

If a town player thinks he really is town, then why would this player want to kill town? Furthermore, why would this player want to waste his ability which is almost certainly much more than “Target a player so you can trigger some effect he may have”?

If a town player had any suspicions at all and thought he might NOT be town, then you would have to believe that a scum player, whose primary goal in this game is to stay alive, openly told everyone exactly how to kill him without even needing to lynch him. Furthermore, you would have to trust that there was no twist in killing him by targeting him to kill him, and it ought to be obvious that the only reason a scum would want to be targeted by a night action would be if he had an ability that allowed him to mess up whoever targeted him. In short, if he’s scum, logic would dictate that it’s a trap.

So I am highly suspicious of anyone who claims to be town and targeted him last night, as well as highly suspicious of anyone who thought what happened here was NBD and not worth discussing. I.E. the guy I’m currently voting for.

Check Mastina's ISO on the reasoning for targeting Toog; essentially in her PoE(and others) they had a decent chance of being scum, and were likely to be lynched, so more efficient to target them and remove them at night if they were a mislynch just waiting ot happen; if they were scum and lying, then caught scum. It was basically viewed as any action on them was a shot that would confirm them as scum or kill them, with killing them being something that would happen via lynch at some point.

It is, however, a bit weird that nobody(including myself, but I give myself a pass for not really paying attention) actually questioned why scum would make a statement that guaranteed their lynch on D3 if still alive. Nobody even really mentioned that it could be a wifom thing...so yeah.

You are welcome to, in the course of reading the game, find the people who were planning on targeting Toog.

-Yukiteru

For what its worth, I warned people in my channel that if Toog is a wolf then he's a PGO
Did you also visit him? sorry if you mention it already

I did not. I considered it, but given that my action last night had an unknown but likely negative effect, with the possibility of being fatal, I did not want to mess with the process of determining if their death came about because of my ability or their own role, as well as still finding it reasonably likely that Gamma was scum. I also considered targeting the Robert slot, but given the mod's search for a replacement, if my role were to say block them instead of killing them, I wanted that effect to not be wasted on someone who may not have actually acted simply by virtue of not being a filled slot.

-Yukiteru

[SuperfluousNinja]

that statement by rp was awful. SN has barely been here to know which wagon is likely to go through

Scumchat's a thing.
Even if daychat isn't.
SuperfluousNinja replaced in during the night.
And has access to however much talk has happened in each and every PT they have access to.

If in scumchat.
Or, heck.
If in a neighborhood which SuperfluousNinja has access to.
It was discussed that Reasonably Psychotic is someone that people are suspicious of.

SuperfluousNinja would be well-informed of this fact.

Also, there's the chance that SuperfluousNinja simply is faking the amount of knowledge they possess, having read more than they have implied.

So yes.
SuperfluousNinja would be well aware of this fact.

This is basically pure WIFOM. If you come up with actual evidence and feel like actually talking to me rather than doing a hit and run like this, do let me know. And don’t forget to answer my questions to you also.

You know another reason why people jump onto wagons is because a player is actually guilty and multiple people figure that out. See how WIFOM really doesn’t work?

[mastina]

Am I supposed to believe that with the excessive amount of thinking and analysis you have done so far in this game, it didn’t occur to you to try and figure out why Toog revealed this about himself?

Nope!

Am I supposed to believe that you can't parse the fact that Toogeloo's claim was entirely not-alignment-indicative, thus, irrelevant to people?

Can you explain why you weren’t at all suspicious of targeting a player who you thought was scum and told you exactly how to kill him? Why wouldn’t it occur to you that this could be a trap?

It did.
I had countermeasures for any trap Toogeloo could've possessed.

That's why I was so adamant about targeting him. I knew that if he was, say, fakeclaiming and had a real role of pgo, it'd be nullified.