Mini 2059: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Over]

[Ankamius]

It's very unlikely I'll push for a lynch on you today precisely because it doesn't further towns wincon regardless of your flip. It's too early for that

[Ankamius]

I pushed through Brigitte despite my misgivings because she had a lot bigger odds of flipping scum than tris and gave more info upon a flip

Knowing she was town is useful in its own right

[Ankamius]

Why are you assuming that the only thing that matters is the alignment that flipped

That's silly

[Ankamius]

Do you have evidence that she does it as scum

Absense of doing something as town is not a good argument unless there's a damn good reason it's scumindicative

[Ankamius]

Why are you assuming that the only thing that matters is the alignment that flipped

That's silly

You keep saying that but you have yet to explain how Brigitte flip was “useful” because rn I’m not seeing it.

Then you don't know how I play

[Ankamius]

That's a start

Reck what do you think is the overall gamestate atm

[Ankamius]

Sort creature based on how he proceeds from here, tbh I can buy town being unenthused about catching up this game, but he reached out to me for help with that and I think the way he uses that information will be more indicative to his alignment than how he entered the game

[Ankamius]

I've been paying attention to skitter's trajectory on reading you and nothing she's done so far was weird relative to that. This omgusing on her is silly.

Flubber's last two posts are scummy.

Well luckily the trajectory isn't the issue. It's actually a lot simpler than that.

I'm not the only one that thought that skitter's vote on me was weird. Why is only my concern scummy? How is it omgus when I called out a second vote outside of her scum reads., which exactly what struck everyone as odd the first time?

Okay that explains it, I thought you were talking about the Nimueh read.

That reads null then

[Ankamius]

Then why did you want me to comment on it nim

[Ankamius]

Like you have to be aware that I've never played with you and skitter in the same game before, so there's little I can say about how she would treat you.

[Ankamius]

too many nonfactors skating by doing fuckall

by which im referencing xtoxm, creature, succinct, elbirn.

id be SHOCKED if there wasn't scum in the replacement pool.
i actually liked succinct's entrance to the game, i remember. but recent posting has left much to be desired (specifically, the indignation at not being spoonfed a game summary + the entirety of the case on flubb being 'meta')

xtoxm had a bizarre entrance and then has done very little. dislike his hop onto the brig wagon yesterday as it kinda came outta nowhere after a lot of nothing and then he's done fuckall d2

creature is pinging me bc of the whole "oh man ah geez i just cant get into this game" which when you're a replacement is kinda underwhelming and lets you hide. coupled with WHO creature replaced (tictac) and the fact tictac contributed fuckall and only had 12 posts, and that slot needs way more hard content.

elbirn i think is town bc the vote hops look kinda natural and the way he ran the fuck away from the brig wagon when, as scum, he could've replaced in and left his vote there while he "caught up" to push the wagon forward

Do you believe this gamestate makes sense with a very active poster and two lurkers?

I can see evidence for this being the case with both me and nim being that poster, but I want to see what you think

[Ankamius]

I'm kind of iffy on saying that's necessarily the case mainly because of the severe activity drop at the start of today

It smells more like scum didn't want to keep the momentum going, which indicates to me there was some danger to scum somewhere, yet not enough to warrant a strong push anywhere.

That might be indicative of weird scum pushes on Brigitte towards the end of the day actually

[Ankamius]

Well that was the case before I started pushing nim though

That was solely a last 12 hours type thing

[Ankamius]

Townbin:
Chara
tris
xRECKONERx

High priority sorts:
Elbirn
skitter30
Xtoxm
NotMySpamAccount

Low priority sorts:
Succinct
Flubbernugget
Creature

Probably Scum:
Nimueh

[Ankamius]

I thought charas vote on Brigitte was one of the only true town ones, and I don't see a whole lot of reason she would have wanted to tip the scales the way she did unless she was scum with tris, who I believe is much more likely to be town than scum.

[Ankamius]

I'm glad you believe that Nim

I don't like meta reading creature so I don't

[Ankamius]

that's because the scumtell I'm referring to specifically this game is related to how I've read her in past games, but the exact implementation is different in a way that I've never stated publicly before

[Ankamius]

I've been paying attention to skitter's trajectory on reading you and nothing she's done so far was weird relative to that. This omgusing on her is silly.

Flubber's last two posts are scummy.

Well luckily the trajectory isn't the issue. It's actually a lot simpler than that.

I'm not the only one that thought that skitter's vote on me was weird. Why is only my concern scummy? How is it omgus when I called out a second vote outside of her scum reads., which exactly what struck everyone as odd the first time?

Okay that explains it, I thought you were talking about the Nimueh read.

That reads null then

Isn't this referring to skitter's "new" vote?

Skitter's new vote is even more bizarre than their previous one

zzz

yeah I read that post wrong

either way, best case flubber is just wrong, because the vote on nimueh is reasonable based on her previous stances and overall trajectory on reading the slot

[Ankamius]

I'm going to start filling in vote counts in my private pt

if anyone wants me to dump them in the main thread after I finish, let me know, I'll do it if enough people would find it useful info to have

[Ankamius]

It was hard to notice given that the sun was still directly overhead, but many of the lights weren't working as well.

Votecount 1.4

NotMySpamAccount (5):

u r a person 2 5, tris 62, tictac 67, Brigitte 144, Enter 207

skitter30 (2):

Chara 69, Bronson 259

Brigitte (1):

NotMySpamAccount 198

Enter (1):

xRECKONERx 82

Not voting (4):

Nimueh, Ankamius, skitter30 190, Flubbernugget 258

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-08 00:58:59).

@Mod: This VC is incorrect; Lady Angel is still voting Brigitte at this point and you have my slot as voting skitter30 and not voting at the same time.

[Ankamius]

Interesting note A: The NMSA wagon gained steam and the amount of other 'wagons' drastically increased (and additionally the strength of wagons decreased) over time while NMSA was in the spotlight.

This makes me think NMSA is town and scum are either helping push that wagon or looking to reduce the information gained from that flip.

[Ankamius]

oh that reminds me: is forgetting that the game is nightless ai at all?

:thinking:

[Ankamius]

well ok

they're completely separate thoughts that don't actually go together but sure

[Ankamius]

my focus this game is to find the clearest path to a town win

lynching you early almost never achieves that regardless of your alignment, regardless of my actual read on you

I have gone on record dozens and dozens of times saying that scumlynches are useless and at worst actually

anti-town

to get in a lot of situations, and that opinion is one I will defend to the death

my focus is to put town in the best possible spot in a situation where I am not here to lead

, that means catching as many scum as possible and putting town in a position where it's inevitable they will be lynched

does that help

[Ankamius]

where it's inevitable those scum will be lynched*

that was awkwardly worded, sorry

[Ankamius]

it's not just Nimueh + Xtoxm + Flubbernugget is it?

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Flubbernugget

I want this lynched.

[Ankamius]

If Flubber flips scum like I expect, then I believe I have a complete solve.

Xtoxm + Nimueh would be my choices for his partners.
If one is wrong, skitter30 is a likely substitute if I'm reading the tris wagon correctly (which is somewhat stretched, which is why I'm not confident in this slot being scum).

The one thing I'm suspicious of with this solve is how long the flubber/Xtoxm slots are towards the end of the nmsa wagon for so long, but it's explainable by urap2s read shift and Flubber pushing Urap2 immediately afterwards, I could see this as an attempt at damage control to distance.

[Ankamius]

Also of note is that the original NMSA wagon is the only time that all three of them aren't voting different people or unvoted entirely

Based on how scattered all the votes were in general even when there was a concentrated push on 1-2 slots, and considering they all never voted together even at the end of the day 1 wagons, that's indicative to me that there's something here

I believe tris is town and the wagon was mostly town lead (barring skitter, I think the unvote was a mistake if she was scum here)
Succinct wouldn't be scum with this
Neither would Chara
Nor xRECKONERx
Elbirn is probtown

Flubbernugget/Xtoxm/Nimueh > skitter30 > NMSA > Creature

This is roughly where I'm at

[Ankamius]

skitter30 is because of her treatment of the tris wagon, it could have been a distance attempt from Flubber

NMSA because sacrificial sheep to give scum towncred followed by distance attempts once the wagon started losing momentum

Creature because there's less evidence supporting him as town and he had the other 'weird' vote on tris. Shrug.

[Ankamius]

I'm dense and my solve is wrong but I got two reads right and my third is replaced by my fourth

This is my thought processes narrated by Nimueh

[Ankamius]

I don't think so either, but weirder things have happened

If I'm wrong about my top 5 and scum aren't all there, currently I think it's creature

[Ankamius]

Flubber is the linchpin to my solve, that's why I want him first

It helps that there's already support there too but eh

[Ankamius]

What exactly is the case Flubber being scum?

*the case on

It's a gamestate read, his alignment holds a pretty big key to solving it I think. His actions indicate a scum agenda that I suspect is in play this game and him flipping scum would go a long way towards proving that.

Plus if he ends up flipping town instead, then that's a big sign I need to rethink again.

It's a high information high scum equity lynch

[Ankamius]

Nim i need to look at your case for, because there are very few players i'm willing to think will lean this far into the emotional side of things as scum, though they do exist.

Trust me, Nim fits into that category.

[Ankamius]

What exactly is the case Flubber being scum?

*the case on

It's a gamestate read, his alignment holds a pretty big key to solving it I think. His actions indicate a scum agenda that I suspect is in play this game and him flipping scum would go a long way towards proving that.

Plus if he ends up flipping town instead, then that's a big sign I need to rethink again.

It's a high information high scum equity lynch

What is that scum agenda?

1. I suspect scum have been mostly following town pushes overall rather than pushing their own, this explains all the disproportionately large amount of small wagons that keep popping up all over the place

2. Wagons tend to stall out and the majority of wagons slowly slip into nothingness when they are no longer in the spotlight, this indicates 'lazy' play where there isn't a wholly dominant force controlling the wagons and when/where they are placed

3. The amount of wagons that keep popping up is large enough in amount that show scum are most likely staying on separate wagons

Flubbernugget isn't making any particular pushes on his own that he intends to go anywhere.
Flubbernugget is mostly following lynches.

Considering my scumread on Nimueh, the two of them were never on the same wagon throughout day one. Nimueh doesn't as much follow the other conditions, but Nimueh was also absent for more than half of day one, so that isn't indicative.

That's two down.

Flubbernuggets only 'push' is on the Xtoxm slot, and a cursory look shows that Urap2 isn't making any particular push that goes anywhere, the only time he votes with Flubber or Nimueh is on the original NMSA wagon, and I have to remember that Urap2 made a pretty dramatic shift in reads to account for him suddenly leaving the wagon.

And now here's the kicker:

Nimueh knew that I had a good record of reading her.
I was scumreading Flubbernugget.
I was scumreading urap2

Urap2 suddenly switches his reads to match mine nearly word for word.

That looks a lot less town from this particular light.

[Ankamius]

Skitter30 somewhat matches this trend, I think if she was scum she reversed off of tris because she knew she would get heat for that wagon.

Plus there's just some bizarre stuff about her that I've been noting all game that just doesn't quite add up.

It doesn't fit as perfectly as the above three, but it's still notable.

NMSA, again, is pick #5 predominantly because it makes sense for scum to want to double push him down if he got that much heat early on to get free towncred and to reduce the odds of NMSA getting them caught. Plus it makes more sense for Urap2 and Flubber to make the actions they did after the wagon started falling apart if they wanted to recover from that failed gambit.

[Ankamius]

If Nimueh is town here, she's just the Eddie Cane this game

I did the exact same thing where I narrowed the scumteam down to town him and an actual scum and pushed the actual scum down. He got megatilted and was genuinely shocked when I town locked him the next day despite my other scumread flipping scum.

For the last time Nimueh, I'm not an idiot. If you believe I'm at all competent, just let me fucking work and if you are legitimately town, I will either be able to lock it in or lynching you will win town the game.

[Ankamius]

Does xtoxm give you more info or do you think he's scummier

I'm more worried about the former

[Ankamius]

I suppose so

I'll compromise on Xtoxm if I have to but I still think Flubber gives me more direct info that I can use for somewhat similar reasons

[Ankamius]

But if we do compromise on Xtoxm and we get a scumflip, I'm going full tilt on lynching that slot tomorrow.

[Ankamius]

What do you think of Succinct?

[Ankamius]

That actually helps a lot

I'm only worrying about that slot because if I'm wrong, I think I have to spend too much time proving it to be able to take the proper precautions if they're scum

Assuming I'm correct in who they are at least

[Ankamius]

I don't understand the skitter townread

[Ankamius]

Idk whether to be upset or disappointed that you don't understand how I approach the game yet

You do whatever you feel you need to.
I'm somewhat baffled you felt the need to act like my main.

Equally as baffling:

Low priority sorts:
Succinct

Knowing who I am and having me as a low-priority sort. I'd think I'd be your highest. However, speaking of 2570:

Townbin:
xRECKONERx

Since I've seen xRECKONERx content, this I can now agree on.

I'm legitimately confused by both of these comments

Like there's a hint here that I have your identity pegged correctly, but both of these comments to me don't reflect how we generally interact with each other

[Ankamius]

Ignore the third

I had to crop manually and it's hard on a phone

[Ankamius]

Actually that comment doesn't accurately reflect the first one in the quote

That I'm just confused about

[Ankamius]

Ah

It's a case of I feel like I should be trying to sort the entire playerlist this game and sorting you directly is less useful towards that end than sorting other players and fitting you somewhere into where that takes me

That's essentially why I was able to build a solve after only sorting two players as scum

[Ankamius]

So I'm assuming you would be content with a Flubber + NMSA + Xtoxm solve currently?

[Ankamius]

where it's inevitable those scum will be lynched*

that was awkwardly worded, sorry

I usually default to scumslips are nai, but this one seemed different for some reason????

?????

[Ankamius]

Nim, you being flipped town doesn't help anything. at all, really. it would just be a way for you to get out of the game, just like Brigitte did. i'm interested in solving, not flipping players who want to be flipped. the fact that you want out makes you even less likely to be scum to me. proving you as town doesn't affect Ank's solve very much, so there's just no point in doing it.
if you want to leave this game, replace out. that's how it works. wanting to be lynched when you're town doesn't help anyone.
or, keep playing and keep pushing your reads even if you're being scumread. that's also part of being town.

First off, I agree with what you said earlier. I do owe Ank an apology. She is just playing the game and regardless of what I think of her read on me or how I feel about it, she didn’t deserve my being a jerk to her, so Ank, I’m sory.

Now. wrt to what you’re saying here. my replacing out doesn’t change her read on me, which is the entire point - to prove what I’m saying is the truth. And if you have no problem being wrongly lockscum read, I give you mad props for that but I don’t know how to deal with that. And I honestly don’t blame Brigitte, except that of course for the awful self-hammer. What you’re advocating here is a lot easier said than done.

accepted

In the future, I think I'll just avoid reading you at all and just defaulting to "don't let near lylo" because regardless of your alignment, scumreading you always derails the game

I'm just not dealing with it anymore because it compromises my ability to do my own thing

[Ankamius]

Why the hell do you think I would sheep Flubber? If I were going to sheep anyone at the time - had I been online att which I wasn’t, it would have have been you, Chara or - well I’d say Creature but he hadn’t yet replaced into the game yet. Now. I’d probably add Tris to that list, as well.

I don't understand

I never said you sheeped flubber

[Ankamius]

Does xtoxm give you more info or do you think he's scummier

I'm more worried about the former

You think Xtoxm is lower info?

yes

[Ankamius]

SIGH

[Ankamius]

@Mod: Is it public knowledge at what stage we will know when NKs are enabled again? I'm referring to like start-of-day vs end-of-day

[Ankamius]

This is frustrating

mhm

ngl I'm rapidly losing my drive to give a shit this game

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Xtoxm

this is going to take a lot less effort to push through and I don't want to put enough effort in to push Flubber to a lynch today despite feeling like it's objectively the best play, since I don't think it's healthy for the gamestate to risk flaring myself up

so I'll just sit in the backseat and just look to shield mislynches if things go off track

[Ankamius]

that sucks

that means we could just get to the end of day 2 and get told that we're suddenly going to have a night 2

[Ankamius]

idc

I feel like I'm the first NK for most scumteams here anyways so I'm just going to assume every day is my last

[Ankamius]

that's essentially what I asked worded differently

[Ankamius]

idc

I feel like I'm the first NK for most scumteams here anyways so I'm just going to assume every day is my last

I think this setup is mountainous right? So no tprs in this game. If you are, it would likely mean that your reads are probably on the right track.

what makes you think the setup is mountainous

[Ankamius]

well thanks for claiming VT out of nowhere I guess

[Ankamius]

absolutely stunning

I'm convinced

[Ankamius]

What was the point of that post

[Ankamius]

welcome back skitter

[Ankamius]

are you recatching up from where you left off or are you skipping a lot of it

[Ankamius]

no not really

tbh my care level is at like 1/10 what it was a few days ago

[Ankamius]

I don't care which

as long as it's one of the two

[Ankamius]

I'd like to know why you're just now stating this

[Ankamius]

I'm pretty sure that's a scumclaim lol

[Ankamius]

Flubber is the linchpin to my solve, that's why I want him first

It helps that there's already support there too but eh

What exactly is the case Flubber being scum?

*the case on

It's a gamestate read, his alignment holds a pretty big key to solving it I think. His actions indicate a scum agenda that I suspect is in play this game and him flipping scum would go a long way towards proving that.

Plus if he ends up flipping town instead, then that's a big sign I need to rethink again.

It's a high information high scum equity lynch

'lining up mislynches' disproven

[Ankamius]

tris has like 0 pressure

why would I need to defend her in the first place

[Ankamius]

shes intentionally making the game unplayable

this needs to be unpacked more

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Flubbernugget

[Ankamius]

Are you basing that off Xtoxms post, Chara

[Ankamius]

idk nim you tell me

[Ankamius]

I want Flubber mainly because I think Xtoxm obvscummed and I want to flip my other scumread so I have another day phase to make sure my theories are sound or at least that I'm not missing anything huge

I've duly noted that there's a lot of support for both Flubber and Xtoxm but everyone has their own idea for the third, that's going to be my main focus I think since I expect I have a max of 2 scum pegged if past experience is to be trusted

[Ankamius]

I'd rather not go down that rabbit hole until I have the second flip to work off of

it's frustrating to do a bunch of analysis based on having flips I don't have and then getting those flips only for it to be what I wasn't expecting it to

[Ankamius]

is it skitter or creature or somebody else

[Ankamius]

the reason I was townreading urap2 so strongly is scummy from this newer perspective, creature

[Ankamius]

And now here's the kicker:

Nimueh knew that I had a good record of reading her.
I was scumreading Flubbernugget.
I was scumreading urap2

Urap2 suddenly switches his reads to match mine nearly word for word. That looks a lot less town from this particular light.

[Ankamius]

I will go back to lurking for a while if I'm causing problems

[Ankamius]

And now here's the kicker:

Nimueh knew that I had a good record of reading her.
I was scumreading Flubbernugget.
I was scumreading urap2

Urap2 suddenly switches his reads to match mine nearly word for word. That looks a lot less town from this particular light.

How does Urap switching his reads have anything to do with what you’re saying about me? How is that connected to anything?

Was he sr Flubber? I don’t recall?

context.

that post was at creature

[Ankamius]

@Ank, can you link, quote the point where Urap2 switched his reads to match yours?

it starts here

[Ankamius]

Oh dear

Usually it's scum that attack my methods when I scumread them this way :V

[Ankamius]

I don't even remember which of the two I'm voting

Is that bad?

[Ankamius]

Idk that nmsa post doesn't look the best either but I won't dwell on it atm

[Ankamius]

well I'm obvscum

just gotta find my partners now

[Ankamius]

speaking of elbirn

he's done literally nothing in the past week now

[Ankamius]

either xtoxm is scum or just isn't reading my posts

because I explained why I pushed Brigitte through outside of the scumread and what will happen if either of my scumreads on your two slots flip town (:

[Ankamius]

is there anything in particular we are waiting on

I don't think Elbirn is going to deliver anything if it's him

[Ankamius]

:V

welp

[Ankamius]

I don't buy that catchup

[Ankamius]

none of these stances fit what you started the day with

you're suddenly townreading the two main wagons
you're scumreading the two most active posters
you're focusing almost exclusively on the methods to attain those reads and how they're handled

the rest is a bunch of shade

I think this is scum #3

[Ankamius]

:V

welp

Bruv help me

Why should I be listening to you, because even if you're town everything you say reads to me like you come from another planet

I've had flubber as a solid townread for a bit now and I dont see why you're pushing him

with the amount of people that have been scumreading him since before you replaced in, your prod dodging since the start of the day only to start defending him now after it is starting to look like he's going to be pseudo-compromise lynched doesn't exactly mesh with "I've had flubber as a solid townread for a bit now and I don't see why you're pushing him."

[Ankamius]

How does my stances "not fit"? There is no contradiction with anything I've stated so idk what you mean

And of course its shade. Because you're pushing people I believe to be town in a shitty way. Did I not make that clear? Me disagreeing with you does not make me scum dude

your stances don't fit because they're different than they were the last time you posted actual content here

and the way you posted them doesn't indicate a natural progression at all

it indicates you trying to save a game that is about to go to shit

[Ankamius]

then why did you specifically shade how chara and I are going about our lynches and how I'm approaching the game

rather than

a. explaining why they're town
b. explaining why [insert other person here] is scum
c. reaching out to learn where these scumreads are coming from and why they're wrong

plus there was a lot of support on flubber long before I started pushing this solve of mine, why didn't you defend him when the day started or pushed tris, the slot that you voted and then completely ignored since the start of the day

[Ankamius]

your catchup is literally:

"look these two posts made by the two top wagons are town!"
"look these two players leading the town are playing bad!"
"look the way this solve was formed is fundamentally terrible!"
"look I don't townread these two players leading the town but my read on them is put very vaguely... but they're not scum+scum!!!"
"look these other players are gross"
"maybe I should case tris"

[Ankamius]

a. explaining why they're town
b. explaining why [insert other person here] is scum
c. reaching out to learn where these scumreads are coming from and why they're wrong

[Ankamius]

I'm really not sure how to revive the game

I kinda thought doing solving stuff would help but it kinda didn't

[Ankamius]

:SHRUG:

That's always the first thing I'm suspicious of when I get attacked for my playstyle by people who didn't have a problem with it before

Historically, those slots have flipped scum

[Ankamius]

@Chara

[Ankamius]

I'm really not sure how to revive the game

I kinda thought doing solving stuff would help but it kinda didn't

yeah thatll happen when scum are controlling a game

Yeah I don't ever flip scum this game

Sorry

[Ankamius]

like

can we just move on

my god

[Ankamius]

Still think Flubber is objectively correct but I'll compromise

VOTE: Xtoxm

[Ankamius]

That's one reason I want to test it, skitter

[Ankamius]

I checked, I was on Flubber

[Ankamius]

i really don't think Flubber/Elbirn/Xtoxm is ever a team here.

If xtoxm/Flubber legit is SvS, we can figure out the third afterwards

We will have time

[Ankamius]

Idk skitter

Xtoxm is obvscumming
Flubber makes a lot of sense as a partner

It's the third I'm not as sure on

[Ankamius]

Like I'd be surprised if that wasn't SvS, it just makes way too much sense with how the game has shaped up

[Ankamius]

Skitter

You're getting paranoid when it is far too early to get paranoid

[Ankamius]

Like please trust me at least for today

If my solve is wrong and xtoxm/Flubber is NOT SvS, then I will step back and rethink

We have time to take lynched like this because we have more than enough time to reshift ourselves if we end up being wrong

[Ankamius]

And I'm confident enough in my solve that I specifically want it tested

[Ankamius]

That's a pretty classic ate skitter

[Ankamius]

Trust for today at least?

If we don't lynch scum then I won't lead d3 unless the thread just completely dies

[Ankamius]

Just noting here

Skitter has been sorting
Chara has been sorting
Nimueh has been sorting
Reck has been sorting
Creature I will trust the townreads of
Succinct has been sorting
tris has been sorting

NMSA is just... there
Elbirn had a sketchy return to the thread

Flubber has had really wooden contributions that make no sense
Xtoxm is just... wild flailing

[Ankamius]

Like please trust me at least for today

If my solve is wrong and xtoxm/Flubber is NOT SvS, then I will step back and rethink

We have time to take lynched like this because we have more than enough time to reshift ourselves if we end up being wrong

is this directed at me? because voting flubber when you think xtoxm/flubber is kinda trusting you? not sure what you're asking of me tbh. you want me to go back on xtoxm?

also i'm god-awful at reading ate, especially in real time; i need like a delay of ~2 irl days to try to read it properly

It was directed at you

I'm trying to break the paranoia before it can take over your thoughts

[Ankamius]

I honestly think there's good odds that the game is just solved already

These wagons have been stalled long enough that it is very unlikely for the slots that have consistently been around and hunting to be scum (otherwise one would have won out I bet, specifically keeping up this charade to no practical effect is ridiculous scum strategy)

Of the three slots that were wagoned, two have showed signs of caving under the pressure, while the third (tris) never has once

Just another aspect of the gamestate that supports scum being in the mostly lurker slots

[Ankamius]

i'm not really paranoid of you; i'm pretty sure you're town
i'm not sure i trust your reads or your solve tho

@ank

well

That's what I'm asking you to trust for today, at least enough to see whether I start delivering scum heads

[Ankamius]

I really just need my theory tested at this point because I'm going to have to force myself to disengage entirely otherwise :V

[Ankamius]

... i'm voting flubber tho
i'm not entirely sure what you're asking me to trust exactly

i'll prob switch back to xtoxm if needed but i'm still thinking about it

To trust me enough to delay your paranoia until tomorrow

I suspect otherwise that your confidence is going to plummet upon a scumflip today

[Ankamius]

I don't really say this enough in games

Whenever I feel like I have a confident solve in a game and enough scum properly pegged to be able to push town into a win, I'm always much more afraid of getting NKed and town being thrown off track without me there than of getting my scumreads lynched

I don't want to get these lynches because I forced people to sheep me with no other choice

I want town to be set up to be able to get them without me there at all

And having someone who can hold a lot of influence over the rest of the town fall prey to a paranoic mindset as a solve is being put into effect is one of the single worst scenarios I can think of

I want to avoid that scenario much more than I want either of these lynches

[Ankamius]

ank threatening the gamestate if we dont power thru ur preferred lynch is uh not a great look

What specific post is this responding to

[Ankamius]

I really just need my theory tested at this point because I'm going to have to force myself to disengage entirely otherwise :V

If you're referring to this one

It's because I'd rather disengage than tilt and make the game unplayable

[Ankamius]

i'm actually really confused by this whole conversation because i actually don't think i'm being paranoid rn
i'm kinda starting to think that maybe you mean something different by that word because i'm not sure what you think i'm paranoid of rn?

You were questioning the Xtoxm read and I saw the trajectory you were going on with that being you becoming too unsure to be comfortable lynching xtoxm

And tbh I think that outright breaks the momentum of this wagon

[Ankamius]

And if I don't deliver a scum today then I'm probably just going to mostly sheep tbh, because if I'm that far off then my reads are never going to improve

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Flubber

I'll just do this to reaffirm I'm okay with both wagons and leave it at that for the night

I'm pretty certain the communication failure is on my side but I can't find where exactly it is atm

[Ankamius]

I really just need my theory tested at this point because I'm going to have to force myself to disengage entirely otherwise :V

If you're referring to this one

It's because I'd rather disengage than tilt and make the game unplayable

[Ankamius]

That was at reck, if the failed multiquote didn't make that obvious

This is exactly what happened in Undertale and town definitely didn't win that one

[Ankamius]

I'll go more into why people should be okay with a Flubber lynch later today

Absolute worst case for anybody, it's an information gold mine

[Ankamius]

Creature I will trust the townreads of

-_-

I have a very bad track record of reading you, sorry :V

[Ankamius]

Ok Elbirn might not be scum

Just not understanding how I reached the solve

[Ankamius]

Being paranoid of the NK in a so far nightless game is...something?

I specifically confirmed with NSG in the game thread that we will NOT know ahead of time roughly what time of day we will know when the night phase is available again.

Which means it could literally be set up so that "day 2 ends = NIGHTS ARE ACTIVATED = night 2 begins"

[Ankamius]

that wasn't meant to be snarky

I'm sorry

[Ankamius]

you know

I went into work today planning on writing this big case on why exactly xtoxm and flubber both just make the most sense as scum

but I hate doing that

so I didn't

[Ankamius]

does anyone need anything specific tho

[Ankamius]

I don't think it's very suspicious creature

not when there's a very loud town pushing the top two wagons as scumpartners

[Ankamius]

What exactly is the case Flubber being scum?

*the case on

It's a gamestate read, his alignment holds a pretty big key to solving it I think. His actions indicate a scum agenda that I suspect is in play this game and him flipping scum would go a long way towards proving that.

Plus if he ends up flipping town instead, then that's a big sign I need to rethink again.

It's a high information high scum equity lynch

[Ankamius]

like

idk how we can reconcile our playstyle differences because I hold the opinion that the information is 5x more valuable than the scumflip

so I'm not sure explaining more is worth bothering with

[Ankamius]

one thing I will say though is that I'm not actually trying to find the entire team, right now

I'm trying to find the method that will allow me to deduce the entire team (or at least narrow it down enough that I can focus entirely on getting town on the same page) in the most efficient way

and currently that way is by flipping flubbernugget

[Ankamius]

well, I mean... sorry :V

this is the best approach I can take with this game, I can't do the casing judge-by-actions thing because I literally cannot think that way and the years I spent trying was when I was horrible at this, so

the problem with it is that I've had to take extra liberties with it so I had to gamble all my credibility on having a good lead on the first try, so if it fails then I'm effectively sunk and it's not worth trying to build a second one, this playerlist won't trust me with that a second time and I don't have the tools available to convince you all the way you would need to be convinced otherwise

[Ankamius]

and a turn around like that is still objectively scummy so im going to call it out regardless

no

[Ankamius]

ank has already positioned to go after me if flub flips town and people are saying they wont reconsider anything on a townflip
so what is the fucking point

You would be correct if I hadn't pointed out quite a few times that I was putting all my credibility on the like with the Flubber lynch and that I would rethink everything upon him flipping town, which by the way close to nobody has acknowledged other than the other slot you are also scumreading, skitter.

But yes keep lying to suit your needs and avoid doing any real work on making your scumreads accountable or really anything to try to move the game forward, Xtoxm. It reads a lot more like you're trying to damage control a shitty situation to throw a fucking tantrum and OMGUS all the slots pushing you the hardest rather than try to town the fuck up and try to convince us to look elsewhere.

And saying I'm tunneled isn't an excuse, Elbirn has already done it and it took remarkably little effort from him to do so. Your response to this pressure

is
not
town.

[Ankamius]

Flubber has had very lackluster posting, has posted literally nothing the last few days (ftr this points to Flubber being the scum of the two if these wagons are TvS), has generically responded with discrediting-style statements towards the suspicion on him, and really hasn't been making any counterpushes or trying to dismantle the wagon on him at all.

That's not necessarily scum by itself, but the way the gamestate is evolving around him makes aggressive uselessness a strong strategy in this situation.

My position here is shaky. There's a lot of support of these two wagons individually but there's little overall cohesion and the rest of the players that really haven't already hopped on are very unlikely to.

Why would Flubber need to do anything when the wagon on him is already stalled? All he needs to do is not say anything too scummy and he's already set to be released from being today's lynch. The support against the wagons is not going to get higher than it already is without a huge centralized push as it is until it gets too close to deadline. Plus my influence is actually waning over time, and there is the very real threat that if it gets low enough, the wagons will dissipate if for no better reason because I'm trying to lead them.

[Ankamius]

I'm not entirely sure who the third is here, my best guess is they're somebody trying to subtly shift away from this dichotomy, but I can't point to a specific person atm

[Ankamius]

Plus I can see scum adopting this low morale type of strategy in a game where there's obvtowns popping up and there's no nightkill to deal with them.

That's actually a big reason why I'm really suspicious of the Xtoxm slot, his predecessor put in a lot of raw effort at the start of the game and I can see someone who was in a good spot get really discouraged at how town were starting to get their shit together, only one of them was looking town enough to escape the town's wrath for a while, and the other two were not getting... well, anywhere really.

Xtoxm having no presence the entire game.
Flubber feeling really wooden and pushing like he doesn't really care.

I could see a few other slots fitting this general trend, too. Tris and Elbirn are the closest fits that I can see right now, maybe NMSA too.

Actually now that I think about it, it makes sense from a flubber+xtoxm+NMSA team

[Ankamius]

Flubber feeling really wooden and pushing like he doesn't really care.

I dont care because you keep trashing this game with shitty excuses for reads and I'm not going to be the one to argue with you for five pages just to get some worthless "i cant really explain my read oh and by the way it's actually a shaky read ive been pushing this whole day phase teehee" crappity crap crap

?

The game was this dead long before this

[Ankamius]

I wasn't taking control of the thread at the start of the day though?

I've only been doing that for the second half and the game was dead for a lot longer than that.

Will you start giving a shit if I stop posting then, I'd rather be shown I'm wrong by my targets towning up than to be shown I'm wrong because they didn't care enough to try

[Ankamius]

Mom dad stop fighting

I'm not trying to :V

[Ankamius]

I think I understand it reck

She's trying to coast by making false nothing pushes and relying on more active town shielding her and the trajectory of where town is focusing to hide her from everybody? Is this roughly it?

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Flubber

I want to see from a few more slots before the day ends

[Ankamius]

Idk

I feel like the resistance to me is suspicious as fuck too but I'm at a stage where I'm about ready to stop caring about it so

[Ankamius]

Like

If somehow a tris wagon forms and it ends up flipping town, I'm going to lol my ass off

[Ankamius]

I think tris is one of those slots that just kinda gets wagoned every time the game kind of stalls

It's happened ever since all these slots got replaced

[Ankamius]

It's all indirect

[Ankamius]

The slots that seem to consistently want her to be lynched are the same slots I'm the most dubious on

Like, most of my townreads are not interested
Most of the slots I'm not are

[Ankamius]

Mmmmmmm

Now that I look back at it, the D1 wagon on tris looks more town overall than the Brigitte one

The problem I have with it is that I really don't get like... anything from that lynch. At all.

[Ankamius]

you are an activated IC?

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Xtoxm

[Ankamius]

Why does that make you paranoid

[Ankamius]

VOTE: tris

There

I won't tarnish the Xtoxm wagon anymore

[Ankamius]

I don't really say this enough in games

Whenever I feel like I have a confident solve in a game and enough scum properly pegged to be able to push town into a win, I'm always much more afraid of getting NKed and town being thrown off track without me there than of getting my scumreads lynched

I don't want to get these lynches because I forced people to sheep me with no other choice

I want town to be set up to be able to get them without me there at all

And having someone who can hold a lot of influence over the rest of the town fall prey to a paranoic mindset as a solve is being put into effect is one of the single worst scenarios I can think of

I want to avoid that scenario much more than I want either of these lynches

[Ankamius]

my credibility is shot no matter what happens so me trying to lead at any point is effectively useless

my only option left is to make the plays that create the highest possible odds of town getting their shit together

and currently that's just getting a lynch through

[Ankamius]

then vote tris

worst case scenario, she's town and the people that were up her ass all game will be forced to start looking elsewhere

and it's far enough away from what I want that it will remove too much credibility for me to want to push anymore

so

[Ankamius]

it's already been proven that trying to rally town isn't going to work

the best anyone can do is lynch the people that are always going to be distractions so that worst case we can stop the bleeding

town is not going to do that with tris alive because there's like 4 slots that are always going to default to that slot

the only thing that I'm worried about is if tris gets lynched, flips town, and the people that were on her just decide to disengage and not care rather than reengage elsewhere, because I'm not going to try the rallying approach a second time and I'm not sure who else is both willing and able to

[Ankamius]

I'm done with the gamesolve, don't bother

[Ankamius]

I doubt this town ever comes together lol

I got a lot of shit for 'taking over' the town but that was the highest cohesion we had all day and now that I've given up on it, I strongly suspect that what will happen is that people will go back to being disengaged with the game entirely

[Ankamius]

I'm done with the gamesolve, don't bother

Yeah bit it caused enough controversy that its something that i think will fester if unresolved (kinda like unresolved 1v1 that just sits there for like 3 dayphases)

tris has already been festering

you're not going to get cohesion anywhere else until she's gone

[Ankamius]

funny thing is I think that's roughly how NMSA will get lynched too eventually

and Xtoxm's attitude, if it never changes, will also be why he gets lynched

I think town has already lost if all these slots are town

[Ankamius]

eah i know, but flipping someone who i dont really scumread necause if they're town they're going to be an inevitable mislynch is :/

if you have any better ideas, I'm all ears

[Ankamius]

Ank I've been trying not to undermine you because I've felt like you're coming from a good place and a town motivation

But I really need you to stop pretending the game revolves around you

And your preferred mislynches not getting thoughtlessly rammed through is not the same thing as town having no cohesion.

what was town doing before I took control

[Ankamius]

Ank I've been trying not to undermine you because I've felt like you're coming from a good place and a town motivation

But I really need you to stop pretending the game revolves around you

And your preferred mislynches not getting thoughtlessly rammed through is not the same thing as town having no cohesion.

and yes I'm aware that I let my ego get too out of control in games at times

the problem is that I don't feel like I had any choice but to try, the game ultimately died after the Brigitte lynch and nobody was really stepping up to make any strong pushes or trying to bring town together to get anything done

everyone was playing either like a support, mediator, or just disengaged entirely, a cohesive town doesn't function like that unless the overall town's reads are already cohesive with each other; town

needed

somebody to be assertive and actually get things done so that the game could actually progress because it wasn't happening otherwise

I probably bungled up the explanation for what I was doing, but ultimately I cared a lot less about the lynches and cared a lot more about getting people to actually engage and start coming together on something. The ultimate response I ended up getting is the same disorder that was there the entire day, except more forceful and giving me no indication that the engagement people are starting to show again is going to last longer than the current dichotomy is active

I've already stated how activity and engagement is low
I've already stated how I can see the next several lynches going
I've already stated how town is not coming together on anything and agreeing on anything

I've been so adamant on trying to get as much done as possible ASAP because I'm doing the most to

fix

all this, and my single biggest worry in this game is that I'm the only one that

can

in this game, which means that town is vulnerable to just losing that the moment nightkills are turned on, and then what? my specialty is being able to read the gamestate and how it's going to shape the game the next day, the day after that, etc. all the way to endgame.

and currently?

I see town losing if things aren't drastically shifted.

[Ankamius]

I'm gonna goahead and agree with Ank that town cohesion is done for. I'm crazy suspicious of the flubber claim, but I'm willing to lynch xtoxm just to see. VOTE: xtoxm If we can't get a lynch within irl today or tomorrow there's no way town has a chance bc we'll never agree enough on anything.

tbh I'm starting to get really iffy on the shadowing

[Ankamius]

Push comes to shove I can vote for Tris/NMSA/xtoxm in that order, and the latter is only so I can shit on everyone who forced the false dichotomy of "one of flub and xtoxm MUST be scum because REASONS that I wont ELABORATE UPON"

is this directed at me or everybody else

[Ankamius]

I'm asking because that was pretty consistently the biggest thing that was being argued for why I was wrong

[Ankamius]

NMSA feels like my shadow

[Ankamius]

so uh

do you all remember the several times I've expressed that skitter feels weird

this is another of those times

[Ankamius]

VOTE: NMSA

I prefer this now

[Ankamius]

Creature where are you at atm

[Ankamius]

4. Xtoxm
6. Chara
7. xRECKONERx *
8. NotMySpamAccount
10. tris

hmmmmm

[Ankamius]

put in Chara and take out skitter and you have my list I think

[Ankamius]

just noting though that if tris ever flips scum, Succinct might drop from the townbloc for me depending on a few things

[Ankamius]

Can I trust you enough on Chara?

I have yet to see any reason to scumread chara that was at all convincing to me

[Ankamius]

I'm okay with any of the three

I don't think it's even possible that those three won't be the next three lynches unless something stupid happens so idc which order we do

[Ankamius]

btw just going to point out

Nim probably should be lynched the day before lylo if they're still alive by that point

[Ankamius]

put in Chara and take out skitter and you have my list I think

I'm townreading skitter mostly because of her edge.

ngl now that I've stepped back for a while and watched her do her own thing the last couple days, she feels like a lot of what she's saying has an agenda behind it

like she's trying to subtly sabotage my efforts without outright fighting it due to how I've been reacting to it

[Ankamius]

btw just going to point out

Nim probably should be lynched the day before lylo if they're still alive by that point

Why? Don’t make me start to doubt my tr on you at this point.

because I don't feel you're obvtown enough to lock it down and I don't trust that you're readable enough to the majority of people here for any of those reads to be trusted

[Ankamius]

btw just going to point out

Nim probably should be lynched the day before lylo if they're still alive by that point

Why? Don’t make me start to doubt my tr on you at this point.

because I don't feel you're obvtown enough to lock it down and I don't trust that you're readable enough to the majority of people here for any of those reads to be trusted

btw don't even

there's been two separate instances where I've scumread you correctly and got completely overran by the sheer amount of townreads you've had

most of the site can't read you.

[Ankamius]

uh... that's a *really* interesting interpretation of how i've been playing

it's not ridiculous

the game picked up steam again when I started my push, there's several very easy mislynches to push through when town doesn't care enough to sort them properly

so what's strange about looking to work around me while helping me set myself up to fail?

[Ankamius]

btw just going to point out

Nim probably should be lynched the day before lylo if they're still alive by that point

Why? Don’t make me start to doubt my tr on you at this point.

because I don't feel you're obvtown enough to lock it down and I don't trust that you're readable enough to the majority of people here for any of those reads to be trusted

Where are you getting this from? At this point, the only ones not obvtown reading me are Xtoxm, NMSA and Skitter, so I disagree. It doesn’t benefit town to mislynch - especially before LYLO. My top 3 trs are Creature, you and Chara but they’re not everyone’s, so I don’t see that.

yeah and I've seen this happen before

I don't trust that these townreads on you are correct

[Ankamius]

........................................

I'm not bitter about a previous game lol

I'm covering the bases of you having pocketed everybody in the game since that's one of your bigger strengths

[Ankamius]

uh... that's a *really* interesting interpretation of how i've been playing

it's not ridiculous

the game picked up steam again when I started my push, there's several very easy mislynches to push through when town doesn't care enough to sort them properly

so what's strange about looking to work around me while helping me set myself up to fail?

i mean given that i've been like sheeping you *quite* a lot i'm not really sure where you think i'm sabotoging you or like working around you

I'd have to research into this specific possibility but my initial answer is that it's to maneuver around Xtoxm to try to get townFlubber lynched to get me to lose my credibility

[Ankamius]

nim

I'm saying that most people on the site can't read you

and because most people on the site can't read you

most people on the site are going to falsely obvtown you

I haven't gotten the sense that you're obvtown up to this point

I don't trust other people's obvtown reads on you

so I want people to be aware of it because I don't think people are going to be looking at what you're doing later in the game otherwise

[Ankamius]

this might change

it depends on how long I live, but I'll be watching you to try to nail down a lockread on you either until I have one or one of us dies

I haven't seen it yet.

[Ankamius]

I'm not quoting shit nim

I still think you're leaningish town but you've proven that you can surface-level fool me before

your content is similar enough as both alignments that it's pretty easy to confuse the two

[Ankamius]

anyone else think the ank-nim stuff is scum theatre

36 hours of nothing only to snipe at this

classy

[Ankamius]

anyway I'm done arguing with you for right now nim

it's entirely reasonable for me to take this stance because of my experience with how your scumgame works

none of it's personal, I'm just playing for my win condition

[Ankamius]

let's just end the day

[Ankamius]

Flubbernugget(1)

~ NotMySpamAccount(25)

Xtoxm(4)

~ Chara(66), Nimueh(172), Flubbernugget, tris

tris(4)

~ xRECKONERx(25), Elbirn(32), Creature, skitter30

Ankamius(1)

~ Xtoxm(29)
NMSA(2) ~ Succinct, Ankamius

Not Voting (0):

current vc haphazardly stolen from the mod and edited with the least amount of effort possible

[Ankamius]

tbh I really don't like either wagon composition

they both look gross