BooneyToonz Extravaganza: LAST NIGHT TOMORROW

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Post Post #7600  (isolation #200)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:14 pm

In post 7596, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 7595, Jingle wrote:Pretty much every prize we've seen is better than friendly neighbor having a second shot.


I can confirm this is probably not true.


Explicitly true.

Friendly neighbor shot two is either no utility at all or 1 IC IF xtox is scum.

Weak, loyal and disloyal are all potentially mutiple investigations. Vig is another name off of the PoE list. 1 shot charge transfer is another investigation for one of the weak/loyal/disloyal players. Loud, in conjunction with weak or loyal makes the investigative role stronger.
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Post Post #7601  (isolation #201)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:17 pm

No I said he's an optimal lynch from a mechanical perspective. Who, mechanically is a better lynch?

Regardless, the point is that towncases on him deserve extra scrutiny.
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Post Post #7603  (isolation #202)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:21 pm

In post 7599, DrewVa wrote:pedit: okay, so yeah, xtox is NOT the best fucking lynch from a mechanical perspective


No? Him not having vigged explains exactly ONE of the issues, the missing vig gift. There's still the rest of that post that is relevant.
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Post Post #7605  (isolation #203)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:25 pm

If anyone takes one shot eraser they deserve to be policy lynched. To that end: if one shot eraser is an option in a Boonus room gift any prizes you receive in said room. And yes, if Thanos is in a room with nothing but negative utility choices, the best thing he gets out of the room is the ability to Friendly Neighbor again. That's because all of the other options are negative value.

So I suppose you are technically correct. I'll send you your pedantic ass membership card in the mail.
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Post Post #7606  (isolation #204)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:25 pm

In post 7604, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 7603, Jingle wrote:No? Him not having vigged explains exactly ONE of the issues, the missing vig gift. There's still the rest of that post that is relevant.


Where is there a missing vig gift?


That was the resolved issue, not one of the remaining ones.
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Post Post #7608  (isolation #205)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:29 pm

In post 7599, DrewVa wrote:you can tell me more about BEF and N&M reads tho


BEF's behavior today indicates he's looking for an easy lynch not a scum lynch. EJ is a terrible lynch option and from the way he's pushing there I think he knows it.

N&M was very towny in Boonus Room C night 2 but I have gotten no townvibes from the in thread posting. I'm not scumreading them, necessarily, but they are firmly within my PoE.
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Post Post #7611  (isolation #206)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:34 pm

Eraser has two viable uses. Turn a cop into a neutral utility role or allow a scum player to make the nightkill again, in a way that can't be easily traced.

Additionally, I'm not arguing EJ doesn't deserve to be policy lynched I'm saying actually lynching him is a bad idea because circumstantial evidence says he's town.
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Post Post #7614  (isolation #207)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:36 pm

Why?

Also, it occurs to me we only have the options from one room.
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Post Post #7617  (isolation #208)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:39 pm

Because after having demonstrated why it was useful I assumed people would just, you know, do the protown thing. Also, it's been less than a day since the thread opened.
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Post Post #7618  (isolation #209)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:39 pm

What modifier are you erasing?
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Post Post #7621  (isolation #210)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:43 pm

I mean... Yes. Yes I do. The other room did so.

Since I apparently have to ask you to do the obvious thing: Who was in your room, who won, and what were the prizes?
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Post Post #7622  (isolation #211)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:44 pm

VOTE: Penguin
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Post Post #7626  (isolation #212)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:48 pm

In post 7364, davesaz wrote:Nev & Max fucked up and didn't give anyone in our boonus room a prize.
Unless Boon is extending it, the room hasn't been closed.
They also tried to say that none of the prizes are helpful, which is total bullshit.

Prizes: Loud, Ascetic, 1-shot charge transfer, Multitasking (yeah wouldn't want scum to get that), 1-shot eraser (lets you remove a modifier which would be quite useful to me if someone gifted me a loyal for example)

People keep questioning my alignment, I'll get pissed off and Boon will be finding a replacement. Shut the fuck up already, I'm town and there is no possible question about it.
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Post Post #7628  (isolation #213)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:49 pm

Thanos was also in that room.
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Post Post #7631  (isolation #214)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:51 pm

In post 7625, PenguinPower wrote:Quite a swap from a strong townread


If you were given an antitown modifier by scum, you would claim when you were given it so we could PoE find the person responsible.
If you had an antitown modifier from the beginning, you would let everyone know what it is now because you no longer have it.
If you are scum, you just took a prize that lets you vanilla-ize a cop or give scum back the ability to kill.

You are refusing to explain why.
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Post Post #7637  (isolation #215)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:57 pm

Oh, so it's slightly better than I thought in that you couldn't choose to use it on town but only to assist a scumpartner. That makes me much less likely to think you're scum.

Why is "it breaks the PoE" not a valid concern?
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Post Post #7639  (isolation #216)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:01 pm

You've claimed disloyal, dave. If someone gifts you loyal, they are outing themselves as scum, and vanillaizing you is totally worth it from my perspective.

If EJ receives an eraser, he can remove the weak modifier, meaning he can again target town if he is scum. If the target doesn't claim and the targeter doesn't claim, EVERY WEAK AND LOYAL MODIFIER ARE SUSPECT.

PP singlehandedly broke the PoE, because we cannot know who has the weak or loyal modifiers for sure any more.
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Post Post #7645  (isolation #217)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:07 pm

You realize the point of the PoE is to round up people who can't possibly have committed the scumkill and lynch outside of that group, right? Ascetic has nothing to do with that, and even if I were a scum commuter I couldn't kill and commute in the same night.

And dave, there are 6 players playing Boonus rounds at this point. We had one player win last night. Even if we had all 6 win AND have the opportunity to pick the same modifier (the rooms appear to have varied modifiers) you can have the people in said rooms massclaim their targets. And no. Gifting the modifiers is 100% the correct way to do things.
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Post Post #7650  (isolation #218)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:12 pm

In post 7643, PenguinPower wrote:Like...I literally told you that I outed in my BOONus room what I was doing with the prize. Your reaction doesn't make sense.


Your defense presumes I trust you. If neither you nor the other people in your room out your claimed target and your claimed target wasn't in the room, there's nothing to prove that you targeted the person you said you did. If you're town, you probably told the truth. If you're not, you probably didn't. I still need to flip you to see if I can trust ANY of the results I see from now on.

Additionally, if you claimed in your Boonus room, you've given the information to 2 people AND anyone who later occupies that room, so I don't see what refusing to claim ITT gains you.
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Post Post #7651  (isolation #219)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:13 pm

In post 7646, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 7645, Jingle wrote:You realize the point of the PoE is to round up people who can't possibly have committed the scumkill and lynch outside of that group, right? Ascetic has nothing to do with that, and even if I were a scum commuter I couldn't kill and commute in the same night.


Then you shouldn't worry where my gift went. It didn't break your POE.


It wouldn't have today anyway because gifts resolve at the end of the night. The issue is the future.
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Post Post #7653  (isolation #220)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:15 pm

@ dave: Wrong.

In post 7087, Jingle wrote:Boonus Prizes Preference Order:

Loyal- Always take if available, gift to strongest scumread without loyal, disloyal, weak.
Weak- Takes the place of Loyal if Loyal unavailable.
Disloyal- Gift to strongest nonloyal/disloyal/weak townread
*Vig- Caveat, described in detail below.
Neighborize- Gift to any active townread or keep, preference to loyal/weak players.
Loud- Gift to Loyal/Weak townread
Charge Transfer- IDGAF
Macho/Ascetic/MTasking/Ninja- Don't take.

Normally, massclaim and ensure the largest possible pool of rewards is chosen.

IF VIG IS PRESENT: Gift vig to conftown only. If Loyal or weak is unavailable, limit the number of winners if possible.



I can explain why this is optimal if necessary, but this is now the SOP for Boonus round prizes. If another prize that we haven't seen becomes available, make a judgement call. It probably sits somewhere between Disloyal and Vig however.
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Post Post #7656  (isolation #221)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:18 pm

I'm easily the best person in the game at mechanics.

I don't presume to be the best at anything else.
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Post Post #7659  (isolation #222)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:22 pm

Potential gain from you telling the truth is <<< Potential loss from you lying. I'm not going to trust you because of that. My townreads are NEVER that strong. If I say they are, I'm lying.

I don't actually expect to be able to lynch you today. Hell, I don't think I'll be able to derail the Elsa lynch despite it being terrible. I do think that your lynch is the best one.
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Post Post #7668  (isolation #223)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:27 pm

In post 7658, PenguinPower wrote:And if you are only going to play based on mechanics, we should probably just get rid of you.


:yawn:

Your odds of lynching me are about as good as my odds of lynching you. Probably less because I at least have reason on my side.

In post 7657, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 7656, Jingle wrote:I'm easily the best person in the game at mechanics.

I don't presume to be the best at anything else.


Then mechanically, why would I have done what I just did as scum?

Seems pretty stupid to erase your TR from a vocal player.


Breaking a valid PoE is definitely a good reason to do anything as scum, including scumclaim. And who said I'm not still townreading you? I think you're probably town. I also think the potential gain of keeping you in the game as town is not worth the potential loss of keeping you in the game as scum.
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Post Post #7671  (isolation #224)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:29 pm

In post 7669, Elsa Jay wrote:I wouldn't lie anymore, boss. Clearly I'm in too much shit as it is.


Lies.
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Post Post #7674  (isolation #225)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:33 pm

In post 7664, davesaz wrote:Suffice it to say that a potential hard guilty trumps your POE any day.


Nope. But you're cute. ;)

Tomorrow is probably massclaim and I don't think I succeed in lynching you today, so it can probably wait.
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Post Post #7681  (isolation #226)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:48 pm

In post 7676, PenguinPower wrote:The duck bet me that I couldn't get you lynched before N5.


If he did he shouldn't have. That's mod interference in that it's could give you insight on the game.
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Post Post #7685  (isolation #227)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:56 pm

I figured, but I've seen a lot of mods giving away too much info in player interactions recently, so I just wanted to be sure.
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Post Post #7686  (isolation #228)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:58 pm

So, what's your reasoning on me being scum? Or is that just posturing because you're mad at me for being mad at you for being stupid?
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Post Post #7688  (isolation #229)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:00 pm

Cool. Do you agree that Drewva's towncase on Xtox was suckish?
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Post Post #7691  (isolation #230)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:02 pm

When it comes to EJ, you should follow the opposite of the old adage trust, yet verify.

Assume he's lying, but verify.
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Post Post #7692  (isolation #231)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:03 pm

Do you disagree that resolving whether the townreads there are valid is a priority?
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Post Post #7696  (isolation #232)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:08 pm

Nah, the SS invest is completely irrelevant.

Because there was a clear scum motive to claiming the action on EJ when he did.
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Post Post #7698  (isolation #233)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:14 pm

What's the scum motive to claiming an innocent on someone when there's a scum faking a guilty result on them?
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Post Post #7699  (isolation #234)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:16 pm

Also, I think there may be some confusion.

Someone being the best lynch mechanically doesn't mean they should be lynched. Mechanically, Drewva is also a good lynch, and I'm not arguing that we should lynch them, for example.
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Post Post #7701  (isolation #235)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:20 pm

Gamma Emerald
Xtoxm
BrightEyedFish
Nev and Max
RCEnigma
Nero Cain

Those are the names I'm interested in sorting now.

You're scumreading BEF and N&M. Is your reasoning on BEF similar to mine? Is there a reason for the N&M you're willing to share?
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Post Post #7702  (isolation #236)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:22 pm

Fair. Xtox's scum motive wasn't that though. It was casting doubt on the disloyal actions. Considering that he was on EJ until SS was sunk I find that considerably more concerning than possible distancing.
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Post Post #7704  (isolation #237)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:23 pm

FTR, I might be interested in dave/creat tomorrow after massclaim. Not until then though.
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Post Post #7711  (isolation #238)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:42 pm

7016 actually seems town.
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Post Post #7712  (isolation #239)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:43 pm

Well done, dave. You have inadvertently posted a more compelling towncase than drewva imo.
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Post Post #7714  (isolation #240)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:09 am

GE got outraged over presumed rolefishing, and it comes across as genuine. Town being upset about rolefishing is far more likely than scum.
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Post Post #7789  (isolation #241)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:38 am

In post 7747, DrewVa wrote:Jingle pushing obvtown Xtoxm is bad and yeah, can definitely see BEF and N & M as scum. Not sure about Elsa, due to Creature disloyal.


Yeah... No. I'm not pushing Xtox. I'm trying to sort Xtox. There are mechanical reasons that his slot needs to be sorted sooner than later. I'm not saying he's a scumread, I'm saying that his is the flip that gives us the most information and so I want to know his alignment more than anyone else's. And your towncase was objectively awful, so calling him obvtown is :neutral:

Also, yes, I am assuming EJ flips town here. It explains far more than EJ flipping scum.

In post 7774, UnaBombaH wrote:
In post 7773, RCEnigma wrote:Well Una did you quack at me that night?
Hold on to this until people take stances on whether they think you should be lynched or not. :]

@everyone else - based on my latest posting, who thinks RCE might have fakeclaimed Bunyip / is scum? :]


Odd role to fakeclaim, but faking results after targeting someone else is possible.

In post 7781, Creature wrote:I miss when we would scumhunt normally, not mechanically.


We... Are? I arrived at a PoE pool mechanically. Scumhunting within that is based on actually scumhunting.
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Post Post #7792  (isolation #242)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:45 am

In post 7557, DrewVa wrote:
Xtoxm was on two scumwagons. No way in hell am I ever lynching that.


In post 7745, DrewVa wrote:
In post 7716, DrewVa wrote:
Why does scum!us ever give you an activate or vote SS? We are already confitown here. Our vig failed on jailkept Elsa.


Literally 0 townpoints.

EJ, Dave, Creat and I can possibly claim townpoints from the SS wagon. EVERY other vote yesterday is NAI.

In post 7717, DrewVa wrote:
In post 7712, Jingle wrote:Well done, dave. You have inadvertently posted a more compelling towncase than drewva imo.


when did we towncase gamma recently?

-d


You didn't. You towncased xtox. Badly.

@BEF: Penguin was the only Boonus winner last night. Results have been outed. I was in neither room.
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Post Post #7794  (isolation #243)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:49 am

In post 7791, Creature wrote:
In post 7789, Jingle wrote:We... Are? I arrived at a PoE pool mechanically. Scumhunting within that is based on actually scumhunting.

What is the mechanical PoE and who is excluded?


You, dave, EJ, Thanos, and Una are mechanically excluded. I probably am not interested in profii because of his claim.

In post 7464, Jingle wrote:Profii
Gamma Emerald
Xtoxm
BrightEyedFish
Nev and Max
RCEnigma
Nero Cain


Was what the PoE was. I'm mostly interested in the last 5 at this point.
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Post Post #7795  (isolation #244)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:51 am

In post 7772, DrewVa wrote:
In post 7770, UnaBombaH wrote:
In post 7769, DrewVa wrote:Are you referring to us, because if we’re in LYLO with you and Jingle, like no question, who we lynch.
If all three of you make it to LyLo, the remaining scum is doing something wrong..! :lol:


Yeah, I still don’t know how we’re still alive after our claim - unless scum is either pocketing/hoping to pocket us - which is definitely possible, due to our role.


Your claim isn't a direct threat to scum nor townclearing, and I was pretty obvious about aiming protections at you yesterday. I'd be shocked if scum did kill you.
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Post Post #7803  (isolation #245)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:53 pm

In post 7801, DrewVa wrote:players here might have took that as a sign you were getting serious about that push


First of all, me walling doesn't mean I'm serious. I once replaced into the game and wallcased literally every other living slot. Walls are just part and parcel of what I do.

More to the point, what about repeatedly asking for towncases and explicitly divorcing my reads from the reasoning to lynch Xtox makes you think I'm advocating that lynch over solving the player? If I was convinced we should lynch mechanically, why bother asking for reasons to townread him in the first place?

Now, if you could address my issues with the towncase (there's no reason to townread Xtox because of the SS lynch, the post where you tried to prove Xtox didn't bus looked like textbook bussing) that'd be swell.


For reference:

In post 2389, Xtoxm wrote:15mins.
im on nips.
could move to theta.
its looking like a low threshold plurality lynch
5ish votes i'd expect, unless scum group on someone
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Post Post #7805  (isolation #246)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:55 pm

Dunno what the fuck a stickygate is. Is this the thing about TLK getting lynched for sticky fruit or something? It's been referenced recently, but my full read is about halfway through D1.
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Post Post #7807  (isolation #247)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:56 pm

That list was in playerlist order, btw. It's not tiered or anything.
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Post Post #7815  (isolation #248)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:08 pm

Question:

Does Stickyfruit Vendor continue to be able to vend stickyfruit or is it one shot?

Like say Player A is SFVendor.

N1 Player A targets Player B.
N2 Player B targets Player C.
N2 Player A targets Player D.

Is this a viable chain of events?

If so, SFVendor probably won a Boonus N1.
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Post Post #7818  (isolation #249)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:09 pm

In post 7809, DrewVa wrote:Really wish we had you over Kokichi that dayphase ngl, even if you did roll scum here lol (still not sure you did)


Not scum. Also, you almost did. Boon asked me to play from the start, but I was a little busy when the game was in signups.
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Post Post #7822  (isolation #250)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:13 pm

In post 7814, DrewVa wrote:
In post 7808, davesaz wrote:Nothing to declare.


I'm considering activating ourselves today just so we can send you a charge

I'd kinda rather that than having you in the boonus room and having to guess what you picked

-d


This. The people in the Boonus rounds shouldn't necessarily be the people getting the charges. Removing the person using the charge from the choice of modifiers adds another level of accountability and accountability is protown. If dave/creat/profii end up in Boonus, they should cross gift with someone else in their room (or give their shot to a third party and be given a shot by the people in their room.)
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Post Post #7824  (isolation #251)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:14 pm

As far as I'm concerned, you should always activate yourselves.
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Post Post #7826  (isolation #252)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:15 pm

He isn't.

People want to policy lynch him because he didn't put the L-1 on TLK and then lied about timestamp stuff. Still probably town due to SS interactions.
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Post Post #7827  (isolation #253)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:16 pm

I mean... Doesn't matter if he is, tbh. If Thanos is scum, Xtox is scum, so solving Xtox is a higher priority.
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Post Post #7829  (isolation #254)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:17 pm

7826 was about EJ, 7827 was about Thanos.

You ninja'd me and I submitted anyway
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Post Post #7835  (isolation #255)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:26 pm

In post 7815, Jingle wrote:Question:

Does Stickyfruit Vendor continue to be able to vend stickyfruit or is it one shot?

Like say Player A is SFVendor.

N1 Player A targets Player B.
N2 Player B targets Player C.
N2 Player A targets Player D.

Is this a viable chain of events?

If so, SFVendor probably won a Boonus N1.


@Boon: Could you answer this? If a Stickyfruit vendor was X shot would they be able to send out X discrete pieces of fruit that could each then be passed on?


Gonna assume from the lack of answer that this hasn't been asked yet.
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Post Post #7836  (isolation #256)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:27 pm

In post 7833, DrewVa wrote:ftr Nancy wants to do N&M today

I just don't think elsa is mechanically cleared yet

-d


Not cleared. Circumstantial evidence suggests he's town, and he cannot have performed the scumkill.
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Post Post #7838  (isolation #257)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:28 pm

Commuter, JK, and SFVendor all on the same 5p scum team is unlikely, btw.
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Post Post #7847  (isolation #258)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:53 pm

I agree that 3393 looks town.

The rest, not so much. Xtox was consistently pushing SS, but not as his prime suspect. 2171 was to say voting Theta was a good idea, and SS was thrown in afterwards along with McQueen. The next day, SS is still scum, but TLK is better. And D3 SS is still scum, but he wanted to lynch EJ first.

Meh.

I'll look at the pages around him calling out the rolefishing when I work up the motivation, but that just looks like a lot of X suspecting SS but pushing elsewhere. Which is in no way clearing.
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Post Post #7848  (isolation #259)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:54 pm

If anyone other than Drewva wants to towncase X I'll give them townpoints for the effort.
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Post Post #7855  (isolation #260)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:20 pm

I'm out of shots and don't intend to keep any +'s that come my way.
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Post Post #7858  (isolation #261)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:37 pm

In post 7849, RCEnigma wrote:If you don't want to townread him just say you don't want to townread him.


I don't want to townread him if he's scum. :roll:

If there's actually an argument for town him that isn't 'scum never bus' that's wonderful.

What about his play in the boonus round makes him town?
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Post Post #7994  (isolation #262)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:57 pm

I think it might be time for massclaim.

We have 7 unclaimed roles, two of which are known to be targeting.
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Post Post #7997  (isolation #263)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:04 pm

Profii's an inventor. Also, I crumbed heavily that I was a bad night action target, Drewva, so :shrug:.
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Post Post #7998  (isolation #264)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:05 pm

Maf JK
Maf RC

Visitor
SS
3x VT
Motion Detector

FN
Commuter
Loyal/Loud/? Inventor
2x Targeting ability
Named Town
Miller
Activator
Bunyip
Doctor

Maf Flips/Town Flips/Claims
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Post Post #8000  (isolation #265)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:20 pm

In post 7992, DrewVa wrote:I happen to have superior reads, so sorry not sorry. <3


I have seen no evidence that supports this claim. :P
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Post Post #8001  (isolation #266)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:23 pm

Completely unclaimed AFAIK,

PP, X, BEF, Gamma, Nero
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Post Post #8003  (isolation #267)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:30 pm

Thought expirement.

Do you think townJingle would trust your strong townreads if he doesn't believe in your reasoning?
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Post Post #8006  (isolation #268)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:58 pm

Gambler's fallacy is what you're referring to.
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Post Post #8007  (isolation #269)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:21 pm

In post 8004, DrewVa wrote:incing others. So, it’s my #1 source of frustration at playing mafia. To know, town could have won that game just by listening to me, is beyond infuriating.


First: Hindsight bias and anecdotal evidence. I'm going to say that you haven't performed a systematic study of your read accuracy, so the games that you had spectacular reads and were ignored are going to stand out over games where you were mediocre. It's just the way the brain works.

Second: You townreading someone, even townreading someone you claim to be able to read perfectly, is never going to be enough for me. I'm always going to require more evidence. More to the point, you should know that to be true.
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Post Post #8008  (isolation #270)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:27 pm

In post 7994, Jingle wrote:I think it might be time for massclaim.



I think this merits discussion, btw.

Massclaim gives us a decent chance of not lynching a doc on the off chance N&M are truthtelling, it likely doesn't influence the NK at this point, and if we can significantly tighten the PoE we can win this fairly quickly.

My suggestion is Una pick an order for PP/X/Gamma/Nero/BEF and then Creat/Dave claim afterwards.

If one of the unclaimed players is in a neighborhood, they can claim in the hood and have their partner/hoodmate claim for them in thread after the whole process happens.

Does anyone have a reason not to do that?
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Post Post #8010  (isolation #271)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:28 pm

I don't think he's falling into gambler's fallacy, FWIW, because he actively ignored the posts talking about why trying to lynch based on day reps is a bad idea.
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Post Post #8013  (isolation #272)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:41 pm

In post 8011, DrewVa wrote:My reads are consistently much better than mediocre. And myopic attitudes like yours, will continue to result in continued town losses.


:lol:

Are you talking about town losses like RC's large UPick or OK1? Cause I'm pretty sure you haven't seen me lose a game yet.
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Post Post #8015  (isolation #273)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:45 pm

In post 8012, Nero Cain wrote:Why are you guys pushing BEF?


Wouldn't say I've pushed him yet, but he IS probably scum.

He's pushing EJ for lying but seems to think EJ is town and he's pushing "Day Reps have scum" despite the Ramcius mislynch and multiple arguments about why that's not a helpful path to go down that he hasn't responded to.

Additionally, he's not attempted to sort anyone that I've seen today.
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Post Post #8016  (isolation #274)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:47 pm

Yes, you have Penguin. Twice AFAIK. Both times when I was scum, which really has nothing to do with the presumption that I cause town to lose by not blindly sheeping townreads.
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Post Post #8017  (isolation #275)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:51 pm

Nancy:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=76181

This is my last town loss. I died early, after vigging BP scum.

For completeness, I also drew a game that I had solved because the confirmed town failed to hammer before deadline.

My need for actual reasons to lynch people remains vindicated.
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Post Post #8018  (isolation #276)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:53 pm

*to not lynch people.
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Post Post #8029  (isolation #277)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:16 am

In post 8019, DrewVa wrote:Jingle could you like take a VC or something if you're focused on this game instead of inflating your epeen

-d


I love how responding to an accusation that not sheeping nancy is antitown is 'inflating my epeen'.

:roll:
Nero Cain wrote:
In post 8015, Jingle wrote:Wouldn't say I've pushed him yet

I didn't really name you as a BEF pusher so why did you feel the need to need to defend yourself? Also, you are saying that he's "prob scum" anyways so you are pushing him despite claiming that you aren't.


In post 8015, Jingle wrote:He's pushing EJ for lying but seems to think EJ is town and he's pushing "Day Reps have scum" despite the Ramcius mislynch and multiple arguments about why that's not a helpful path to go down that he hasn't responded to.


I'll have to check to make sure but I don't think he's calling EJ town and I haven't played with BEF scum (at least I don't remember if I have) but doubling down on this day rep thing seems like something scum wouldn't do.

I think its far more likely that scum are pushing BEF as opposed to BEF being scum.


Wasn't about defending myself. I was acknowledging that I probably wasn't the person you were asking, and explaining why I'm interested in the lynch. And no, BEF didn't outright admit he thinks EJ is town. That is the conclusion I came to about him from reading his posts.
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Post Post #8030  (isolation #278)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:31 am

In post 8028, BrightEyedFish wrote:I pushed EJ yesterday for lying and being imo being anti-town. I have has much confidence as EJ being scum as anyone else seeing that we don't have a scum claim.

I have been sorting people but apparently that's not good enough for you because I look to the day reps for that info. I know the Ram thing backfired but I think there is something there. You don't have to believe me and follow my logic but you can't say I;m not trying to sort people.


Since day start you have done two things.

Spoiler: Tunneling Elsa
In post 7406, BrightEyedFish wrote:Of the 3 listed above (Dave, Drew, and Creature) I have the biggest SR on Creature (Karm) and after re-reading Karm's and Creatures's ISO I am even more convinced.

I still want a EJ lynch today though. Because I still believe EJ to be liar/scum and we shouldn't fall for his lies anymore.

In post 7431, BrightEyedFish wrote:yeah. At this point in this game, no one should even read EJ's posts because there is 0% credibility there. Town or not, EJ should be lynched as him being alive will cast shadows on everything he tries to involve himself in.

In post 7433, BrightEyedFish wrote:
In post 7432, Elsa Jay wrote:Well I'm a Miller. That's my fucking job to be suspicious.

As town though I'm highly against you wasting time only on me today and letting scum have a free day.

Can't we do what we did yesterday and keep going under the assumption I'm only a Traitor, who, by the way, is Weak and useless?

Finding Smart's partners take precedent. Atleast scumhunt today.


I can't trust you if I wanted to this game.

In post 7436, BrightEyedFish wrote:
In post 7435, Elsa Jay wrote:
In post 7433, BrightEyedFish wrote:
In post 7432, Elsa Jay wrote:Well I'm a Miller. That's my fucking job to be suspicious.

As town though I'm highly against you wasting time only on me today and letting scum have a free day.

Can't we do what we did yesterday and keep going under the assumption I'm only a Traitor, who, by the way, is Weak and useless?

Finding Smart's partners take precedent. Atleast scumhunt today.


I can't trust you if I wanted to this game.


Even goes out the way to not mention "I guess we should also keep scumhunting instead of tunneling Elsa again today". Why would a townie be in such a grudge holding mindset that lets them not even scumhunt elsawhere?

Please for the love of everything scumhunt other people as well if your all locked onto me dying today. Don't waste the day.


I guess you haven't been paying attention.

Post

Believe it or not, I am still looking at other places, but I guess you just overlooked that post.

In post 7438, BrightEyedFish wrote:
In post 7437, Elsa Jay wrote:Your Also ignoring the fact you have been tunneling me since yesterday.

Also to reiterate the 3 votes on me from yesterday: You, Smart, and Nev.

Nev is scummy, and Smart is flipped Scum now. You and Nev literally went all in with Smart and it backfired since only you 3 were on me.

Kindly explain how you and Nev aren't scum.


How am I ignoring the fact that I have been tunneling you. I have been open about my tunneling you and my tunneling is solely based on your lies.

I tunneled Ram, that ended badly. I tunneled TLK too and that ended badly because of you and SS.
If I follow that logic then tunneling you will also end badly. Perhaps, but call it a policy vote or whatever. I want to see you lynched.

The town won't follow me on my pushes (even though I wish they would) because they are not based on anything other than my moral code. So be it. That's why my vote was on you yesterday and why it sits on you now.

I have no 100% evidence that you are scum. Also, the way my reads have played out this game, statistically there is a good chance you are town solely because I SR you.

Now, I want to look in other directions but your lies have me blinded, that's why I think its in town best interest to have you lynched.


Note: In 7433 and on he distinctly sounds like he believes EJ is town, at least to me.

Spoiler: Pushing Day Reps being scum
In post 7405, BrightEyedFish wrote:
In post 7396, BrightEyedFish wrote:Day Reps:

Day 1:
Emperor flippyNips
Alonzo
Mcqueen
Xtoxm

Day 2:
Davesaz
Ramcius
DrewVa (Nancy Drew 39/DVa)
Karmeleon


Day 3:
Nev and Max
Cheeky Dancer
Nero Cain
UnaBombah

Day 4:
Creature
Cheeky Dancer
Profii
PenguinPower

Day 5:
PenguinPower
Jingle
DrewVa
Gamma Emerald

I don't see any connections right now but I will dive a little deeper and see if something pops out? Anyone else have and theories?


I bolded the people who won the previous night's BOONus round.

There seems to be at least 2 winners as Day Reps every day. The only exception is D2, where there are 3 winners (hence my D2 push on Ram)

Now here is what I am thinking.
2 BOONus winners are always chosen for a Day Rep. And starting with D2, scum can choose someone to be a day rep. I think one of the WINNERS from the N1 BOONus rounds are scum because there are more than 2 BOONus winners as day reps.

Dave, Drew, Karm (Creature)

In post 7945, BrightEyedFish wrote:To be honest, with more people starting to just now start to serious consider lynching me feels like a compliment. I would have never fathomed that scum!me would make it this far with this player list. Too bad I'm not scum and this pipe dream will have to wait for another day.

What's wrong with wanting to figure out the Day Rep selection? Scum have the ability to select a day rep and I think there is something there to help us.

Of course I want an EJ lynch today but I get that it;s not going to happen based on his lies. Unfortunately, I don't have any new evidence against EJ.

I don't know how I feel about N&M right now. I kinda believe the claim but waiting this long does seem kinda iffy?

My top focus right now is on these 4:
Jingle, Creature, Drew, Dave

Beside, I've crumbed my role 3-4 times in this game. I figured everyone had figured it out by now or at least the people affected by it.

In post 7973, BrightEyedFish wrote:
In post 7968, DrewVa wrote:P.edit. @BEF, why Dave over N & M?


My SR on creature stems from the day rep. We now know one of the day rep spots is always random and I believe the N2 random spot went to Ram (the exact opposite idea of my D2 Ram tunnel). The other 2 others Day Rep spots went to BOONus round winners, that leaves IMO that the 3rd BOONus round winner coming from the scum factional ability. I know no one wants to hear about that anymore right now so I won't go further.

Also, I didn't feel particularly good about that slot when karm was playing. I don't believe I have any scum!creature experience but something feels off on the creature/karm slot.

I don't think I ever said dave over N&M because I've never really had dave as a SR other than my day rep business.

That all being said, I'm not opposed to joining the N&M wagon because of Cheeky's N&M read and that claim doesn't sit right with me.


Note, he ignored my:

In post 7527, Jingle wrote:
In post 7524, Thanos wrote:Anyway I think now that we know 1 of the day rep is random. The rest is probably winners of the Boonus rounds and/or scum planted. That should get us 1 more easy scum lynch.


Faulty logic. It's confirmed that scum can put someone onto the day rep list. Given that the whole reasoning for the Ram push was based on that from the conversation around it, I suspect scum is likely ignoring that function or attempting to use it to frame town.

In post 7530, Jingle wrote:Yeah. But the similarity between this push and the Ram push is that it's based on speculation. My speculation is that the scum team has the ability to force any player to be a day rep, not just one of their own. Which means that based on the fact that you guys lynched Ram because of the argument day rep implies scum and the fact that day reps are largely irrelevant, they would have used it on not them and the repeated day rep status implies town.

Of course, because that's simply speculation, I'm not basing any of my reads on it. Basing your reads on the speculation that they would choose one of their own is just as lazy as townreading people for being dayreps would be, unless you have evidence to support the idea that they would repeatedly choose the same scum player to be a day rep. Or, in fact, evidence that there is actually causation between Day reps and Boonus rooms, rather than just correlation.

PEdit: I'd guess that only scum can answer that question.


@Nero: Why do you think scum wouldn't hide behind mechanical pushes that don't require them to fake scumhunting?
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Post Post #8033  (isolation #279)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:06 am

In post 8031, BrightEyedFish wrote:Boon answered this, they can only put one of their scum teammates as a Day Rep not anyone they wish.


Quote?

More importantly, why would scum choose to put themselves on the day rep list when it's been proven to be considered scummy and has no utility for them?
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Post Post #8034  (isolation #280)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:07 am

What did she mean, then, Nancy?
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Post Post #8041  (isolation #281)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:34 am

In post 8035, BrightEyedFish wrote:There is the quote. And to answer your question as to why, here is my opinion.
Since you replaced later in you don't recall it as we do but:
Apparently scum learned of this ability on N1, maybe earlier, but it was first announced Publicly by Boon at the start of D2 and this would have been after scum had chosen someone on N1, so before D2 scum wasn't aware that their day rep ability would be made public knowledge. That leads me to belive that maybe scum jumped the gun and got power hungry and picked a D2 Day Rep without knowing it would be made public.
on D2 we had 3 of the 4 Day Reps as BOONus Winners and since Ram was the only one who wasn't a winner, I thought this made him scum and my confbias got the best of me.

We then learned that 1 Day Rep is ALWAYS random.
D1: All random I assume
D2: 3 BOONus Winners
D3: 2 Winners
D4: 2 Winners
D5: Not for sure but there was 1 less BOONus round due to # of players so it may not give the same result.


Why were there 3 BOONus winner on D2 and only 2 on the following days? Remember Boon's quote now: "Scum can still be able to become a Day Rep without using that ability, however using the ability can let them pick one of their teammates to become automatically one of the Day Reps."

That's basically why I think at least one of the 3 Day Reps from D2 are scum. That all being said, I am not currently voting for any of them now as I do not want a repeat of Ram and I have nothing to single one of them out that couldn't be considered a gut read.

I am still teetering between voting for EJ and N&M.


First, that quote tells us only that scum can (but doesn't have to) choose a player to be a day rep. It doesn't tell us scum can't choose a town player. It does in fact tell us scum can choose not to choose a player to be a day rep.

Where did you get the bolded information? What proof do you have that scum used their ability to manipulate day reps N1? What argument do you have to discount that your premise is entirely based on correlations and not causation? Why didn't you respond to the fact that your plan of attack is about as likely to be useful as a dartboard and a copy of the playerlist when I first pointed out the holes in your theory? Why is this theory strong enough to base entire scumreads off of? And, possibly most importantly, WHY HAVE YOU NOT ANSWERED WHY YOU THINK SCUM WOULD CONTINUE USING THEIR ABILITY AFTER RAMCIUS WAS LYNCHED ON THE BASIS OF HAVING BEEN A DAY REP?

Nero Cain wrote:
In post 8030, Jingle wrote:@Nero: Why do you think scum wouldn't hide behind mechanical pushes that don't require them to fake scumhunting?

that's kinda misreppy bro. Scum usually tend to avoid making waves, he's pushing something that's likely wrong and unpopular. Do you see scum him going "hey, let me push something that I'll prob get flak for."


That's kinda misreppy bro. Day 2 Ramcius was lynched via similar reasoning, and there doesn't seem to have been significant blowback to that. Today, I think I'm the only real opposition to the awful logic that goes into that push. I certainly can't remember anyone else pointing out how terrible it is.
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Post Post #8046  (isolation #282)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:41 am

I wasn't, no. I was asking for towncases on players in my PoE. I wasn't really pushing anyone then. You could definitely read the thread and verify that.
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Post Post #8047  (isolation #283)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:41 am

In post 8042, RCEnigma wrote:Bef isn't the kind of scum player to wag it in your face.


Why?
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Post Post #8048  (isolation #284)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:43 am

In post 8044, Nero Cain wrote:
In post 8042, RCEnigma wrote:Bef isn't the kind of scum player to wag it in your face.

not according to Jingle!


Show me where, prior to my response to BEF, anyone made any comment about pushing dayrep theories being scummy.
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Post Post #8050  (isolation #285)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:49 am

Okay. Now explain why they'd use it. Or continue using it.
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Post Post #8052  (isolation #286)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:00 am

It really isn't extra power.

It's a way scum can out themselves if they want, but it's not extra power. And any halfway intelligent player would have seen that D1.
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Post Post #8054  (isolation #287)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:10 am

Because they can't end the day.

It takes 3/4. If half of the day reps aren't scum, scum doesn't have any real influence to end the day prematurely.

If three day reps vote to end the day while discussion is still happening, they become obvious scum because the mechanic is public. Normally, that means they'd only do it when ending the day wins them the game, but they still can't do that here, because we can still vote in twilight. It's literally a completely useless role.
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Post Post #8057  (isolation #288)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:11 am

I agree. If they want the scum team can choose to out themselves using the day rep mechanic. They could also claim, so we should probably just wait for them to claim and not scumhunt til then.


And arguing that the scumteam is going to use the day rep mechanic for WIFOM is itself introducing WIFOM about the mechanic.
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Post Post #8085  (isolation #289)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:36 pm

Yarp. Hence: Massclaim.

RCE, what are your results?
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Post Post #8086  (isolation #290)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:42 pm

Dave, that's saying it's useless. Not saying it's scummy. My point is that Nero's point about scum not wanting to push the dayrep thing because it's seen as scummy requires it to be seen as scummy. And I see no evidence to support that, prior to BEF pushing the point today.
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Post Post #8093  (isolation #291)  » Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:00 pm

In post 8040, Nero Cain wrote:Scum usually tend to avoid making waves, he's pushing something that's likely wrong and unpopular. Do you see scum him going "hey, let me push something that I'll prob get flak for."


I'm saying that until very recently he wasn't getting flak for pushing that, and that supposing he wouldn't do a behavior because someone realized it was scummy after he was doing it is wrong.

I don't know how to read you, and usually leave you to the PoE.
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Post Post #8127  (isolation #292)  » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:32 am

In post 8103, Nero Cain wrote:I'm not too keen on lynching one of the only claimed protectives. Though I guess Jingle is also a protective and I wouldn't mind lynching him.


Commuter isn't a protective, and I also claimed that I'm both out of shots and don't intend to get anymore.
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Post Post #8128  (isolation #293)  » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:40 am

In post 8120, davesaz wrote:Would scum jingle be able to take a lurkslot and turn it into a scum leading town? That would be my concern.


Yes. I would.

Also, if anyone wants to meta me my last non-open scum game was Organization 13 mafia. I was Vexen. I've played in 8ball and Police academy since then, but comparing mechanical approaches in opens and closed setups are very different.

In post 8124, DrewVa wrote:I'm not particularly thrilled with the idea of Jingle continuing to force a massclaim


We have an actual protective claim, 4 people who haven't claimed at all and 3 people who have already claimed. We have two strong investigative roles claimed and a scum blocking role flip. We have 3 potential killstopping claims that ALL claim to have holstered on the night we have a kill. Scum presumably know why their kill failed, so if there is in fact another protective out there they know it's in PP/Nero/Gamma/X. If any of those slots are scum that further narrows it. Additionally, we have 2 full investigative claims.

Odds are if there's a powerful utility role in the unclaimed players, scum already know it exists. Massclaiming to prevent a potential doctor mislynch doesn't really hurt us and potentially helps us to solve the game. :roll:
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Post Post #8132  (isolation #294)  » Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:05 am

4 with no claim information.

You said you've hinted at your role and the people you've affected should know what it is, which implies targeting role. Creat and Dave are targeting via their disloyal action claims. GE, Nero, X, and PP are the only other players who haven't claimed outright. And PP probably isn't protective, by virtue of giving his charges away.
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Post Post #8173  (isolation #295)  » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:51 pm

In post 8155, Xtoxm wrote:do you think macho modifiers exist in this game just to negate a bunyip and a scum JK?


+1

In post 8156, davesaz wrote:Disregard .

Bunyip is protective only to vanilla, right?


Yup.


I'm not really keen on explaining what I expect to see from massclaim before massclaim, GE. It kinda ruins the point.
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Post Post #8184  (isolation #296)  » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:12 pm

DrewVa wrote:The only problem with that, is scum can kill all the PRs. So, unless scum!SS jailkept us, there is still an unclaimed town protective in this setup that stopped the N3 NK and we shouldn’t out them.


:yawn:

1. Scum know whether or not there is another protective/blocking role hiding.
2. If there is another protective hiding, scum has a very small pool of players they can be in.
3. This is a game where virtually everyone has limited shots.
4. Massclaiming has a very large chance of netting another scum lynch.


Also, the idea that a town protective was on EJ is hilarious. Likely, SS jailkept DrewVa and a town protective stopped a kill somewhere else.
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Post Post #8187  (isolation #297)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:28 am

I'm not voting anyone atm. Nor have I put a vote in my confessional since day start. Assuming I get my massclaim, I have a sneaking suspicion that we're going to have an outed scum.
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Post Post #8235  (isolation #298)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:54 am

In post 8008, Jingle wrote:
In post 7994, Jingle wrote:I think it might be time for massclaim.



I think this merits discussion, btw.

Massclaim gives us a decent chance of not lynching a doc on the off chance N&M are truthtelling, it likely doesn't influence the NK at this point, and if we can significantly tighten the PoE we can win this fairly quickly.

My suggestion is Una pick an order for PP/X/Gamma/Nero/BEF and then Creat/Dave claim afterwards.

If one of the unclaimed players is in a neighborhood, they can claim in the hood and have their partner/hoodmate claim for them in thread after the whole process happens.

Does anyone have a reason not to do that?


I’m not quoting my theory post about the day reps being 0 utility, but they are relevant. Una, your theory about day reps is garbage. Would someone pick the mass claim order?

And no. SFVend isn’t a protective. It doesn’t stop nightkills.
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Post Post #8279  (isolation #299)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:27 pm

@Pp claim?
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Post Post #8281  (isolation #300)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:30 pm

Unanimous agreement is a myth. Who has expressed serious doubts that you’re concerned about?
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Post Post #8290  (isolation #301)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:40 pm

In post 8285, DrewVa wrote:Why the fuck are we massclaiming when N&M is a consensus lynch

I am hearing no one seriously fight for N&M town, only nero saying to pass because of a claim which is weak af

If we are massclaiming we are starting with someone that at least a few people want to lynch like BEF

But I literally don't even know if I want BEF to claim right now and he is basically #2 in my poe

If you think N&M is town then say so and say who the better lynch is

-d


Several people have expressed their desire to pass because of the doctor claim, not just nero. And yes, massclaim before lynching a claimed doc in a setup with macho modifiers is + utility.

The number of people we can be protecting from outing themselves as a protective is laughably low. It can't be Nero, he's willing to lynch N&M only with another protective claim. It can't be creature or dave, they're disloyal. So... X, GE, or Penguin. That's a really good pool to hide in.

We have a suspiciously tight PoE based on semiclaimed results. We have limited shot power roles. We have 2/5 scum lynched, meaning we can work out the full setup to a higher degree of accuracy. We have a missing presumed scum role that we need to find.

As far as not being close to LYLO, that has literally nothing to do with it being a good idea to massclaim. Massclaim the day before LYLO is a crutch used by people who either don't know how to or don't want to figure out optimal massclaim day the correct way.
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Post Post #8291  (isolation #302)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:42 pm

Oh. Add BEF to the possible protective list. I keep thinking he's the bunyip.
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Post Post #8292  (isolation #303)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:44 pm

In post 8289, DrewVa wrote:If the only person willing to add their name to a vote count on a line other than N&M is nero on elsa then it sure sounds like a consensus lynch to me

-d


Or maybe it means there's more to do today and we have half the dayphase. Settling on a consensus lynch (of what, three people?) is a terrible idea when we're capable of actually making headway in the game.
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Post Post #8293  (isolation #304)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:49 pm

In post 8287, DrewVa wrote:There isn’t any need to out all the tprs rn.


Oh, you mean like the two already claimed pseudocops? Or the inventor? Or you? And we've already flipped a scum blocking role, and know about the existence of what is functionally a scum rolestopper, so blocking specific people is an unlikely threat. They have one nightkill, so they can't possibly kill every player that's actively threatening to them, and all of the unclaimed players you're worrying about outing are in the PoE (despite how much you think I should sheep Nancy's blank reads.)
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Post Post #8294  (isolation #305)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:50 pm

Let's just play up the trumpets. X, if town, is likely the town protective. At the very least, we know he's got a targeting role.
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Post Post #8295  (isolation #306)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:53 pm

In post 8287, DrewVa wrote:Yeah, why is Penguin first?


Una, the pseudo-conftown chose the order. He'd go last if I were in charge, but I'm not trustworthy enough that people would listen to my order.
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Post Post #8296  (isolation #307)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:54 pm

My order, for thoroughness, would be GE, Nero, X, Bef, Penguin, Creat, Dave.
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Post Post #8297  (isolation #308)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:57 pm

On last thing before I duck out of the thread for a few hours. If what I hope will happen doesn't, we should probably lynch me or EJ, despite both of us likely flipping green.
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Post Post #8303  (isolation #309)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:15 pm

Okay, I lied about leaving.

First: False dichotomy. Claiming the lynch is between N&M and BEF is stupid.

Second: Stickygate only makes player's results potentially unreliable if they claim their shots before night, which they shouldn't do. Loyal should be looking to clear town, not catch scum at this point, so your argument is fairly moot.

Third: Una has more reason to be town mechanically than anyone other than Thanos, who I also asked for a claim order. And, as far as I know you think he's town. So :yawn:

Fourth: No one wants to lynch BEF? I can understand your wrong belief that I wouldn't support any of the other lynches, but BEF is one of your two biggest leads.

Fifth: This isn't about people claiming results. This is about catching scum in a lie. I very much doubt there's an innocent result on N&M or BEF, but that's not really relevant. Let's say X is a town protective. He stopped the kill N3. He probably doesn't have many/any shots left.
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Post Post #8304  (isolation #310)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:16 pm

In post 8299, Nero Cain wrote:Why is Una pseudo-conf town?


Creature investigation after creature was ascetic.

And yes, I'd prefer Thanos had given the order. But since they seem incapable of doing so when asked...
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Post Post #8305  (isolation #311)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:18 pm

In post 8300, Elsa Jay wrote:
In post 8297, Jingle wrote:On last thing before I duck out of the thread for a few hours. If what I hope will happen doesn't, we should probably lynch me or EJ, despite both of us likely flipping green.


Wait a second, I didn't agree to this.


Don't care a whit. Your wants and desires are secondary to solving the game.
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Post Post #8330  (isolation #312)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:26 pm

In post 8307, DrewVa wrote:
In post 8305, Jingle wrote:
In post 8300, Elsa Jay wrote:
In post 8297, Jingle wrote:On last thing before I duck out of the thread for a few hours. If what I hope will happen doesn't, we should probably lynch me or EJ, despite both of us likely flipping green.


Wait a second, I didn't agree to this.


Don't care a whit. Your wants and desires are secondary to solving the game.


A question, if you please. Would you say you’re more or less fun at parties than FF?


Not sure why it's relevant, but I dislike parties in general and only go if friends drag me to them. When in a large group of friends I'm fairly fun though, unless I have to play amateur couples counselor. (It happens way more often than it should.)
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Post Post #8331  (isolation #313)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:27 pm

In post 8313, DrewVa wrote:Yeah, that's my point. Why do you want to make it easy for the scum to figure out where their kills can do the most damage?


What?

We basically have cop, macho cop and doctor claimed. What role do you think is going to trump any of those for nightkill priority?
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Post Post #8332  (isolation #314)  » Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:28 pm

DVA is right that you're not announcing your target tonight regardless of what happens, though, FF.
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Post Post #8358  (isolation #315)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:35 am

Cool, so one of BEF and profi is scum.
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Post Post #8360  (isolation #316)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:38 am

It's possible, yes.
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Post Post #8364  (isolation #317)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:41 am

In post 8357, DrewVa wrote:You're welcome to push elsa as a traitor enchantress if you like my theory


Elsa ascetic and you jailkept solves most of night three if Elsa is scum, btw. It only didn't because I thought X had claimed vigshot.
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Post Post #8367  (isolation #318)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:45 am

In post 8362, Nev and Max wrote:
In post 8359, BrightEyedFish wrote:
In post 8358, Jingle wrote:Cool, so one of BEF and profi is scum.


Do you think scum!vendor would send town!profii a fruit?


No fucking way on day 1. Scum vendor would pass that off to each other as long as possible.


I wouldn't. I'd use it as a strongman kill. The other potential option of course is to send it to town and hope that it prevents innocents, which is completely reasonable if you don't think scum is likely to be investigated.

More importantly, one of profii and BEF is scum for sure.

Profii, action report por favor.
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Post Post #8368  (isolation #319)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:45 am

In post 8366, BrightEyedFish wrote:Also it could be possible that scum!profii meant to send the fruit to a scum partner but that partner was redirected to TLK.


It actually can't.
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Post Post #8371  (isolation #320)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:46 am

loyal, loud, ascetic supposedly.
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Post Post #8376  (isolation #321)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:48 am

There is no re-director. or rather, profii is the only viable redirector.
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Post Post #8382  (isolation #322)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:53 am

Profii- inventor
Drewva- activator
BEF- SFVendor

There are only 3 non whitelisted roles possible.

In order for a redirector to be in the setup, one of those has to not be. DrewVa's role is funtionally confirmed by the fact that the activations did actually happen.
BEF's role is confirmed by the existence of sticky fruit.
If profii made up his role he could be a redirector. It would be incredibly bad play to fakeclaim a role that was going to be mechanically confirmed as scum later in the game, so profii almost certainly has a variant role.
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Post Post #8388  (isolation #323)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:56 am

Elsa is on the table, but is unlikely to be scum. I talked about why earlier, but basically the point of it is that EJ scumlynch only saves SS if EJ is traitor and SS actually wanted EJ dead, therefore EJ can only be traitor. I'd lynch him the day before LYLO or when there is no clear lynch.

Also, I'd like to point out.... Claims netting scum. Exactly the reason I wanted massclaim. :P
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Post Post #8390  (isolation #324)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:57 am

In post 8385, BrightEyedFish wrote:DrewVa's role is confirmed but is the role AI?


Irrelevant to the you/profii dichotomy. The fact that one of the two of you has to be scum has nothing to do with Drewva's alignment.
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Post Post #8391  (isolation #325)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:58 am

Elsa is either traitor gifted ascetic N1 or town.
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Post Post #8398  (isolation #326)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:01 am

In post 8396, Nev and Max wrote:
In post 8391, Jingle wrote:Elsa is either traitor gifted ascetic N1 or town.


When did elsa claim traitor? Was it day 1? If scum thought it was true and then won a boonus round with ascetic in it, elsa would be a great choice to be gifted something that would essentially conceal them.


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Post Post #8404  (isolation #327)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:04 am

No one talk to N&M. It makes them salty, which is funny as hell FMPOV.
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Post Post #8407  (isolation #328)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:06 am

In post 8403, RCEnigma wrote:I'd agree with this actually, I don't think the flipped scum roles are weak enough to warrant a role like Drewva's on their side.


Narp.

Every targeting role in the game has the potential to become as strong as a full cop. Town has a literal fuckton of power in this game, gated only by the swinginess of winning prizes.

I expect every member of the scumteam has a useful power to compensate. I expect half of those powers to be decent enough as realclaims.
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Post Post #8412  (isolation #329)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:12 am

As claimed Drewva only influences 1/3 of the player list for the initial Boonus rounds, and does so publically. The role is completely viable for scum. Mechanical clears are only there for actual mechanical reasons.

Still, DrewVa is probably town, but it has nothing to do with their role.
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Post Post #8417  (isolation #330)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:16 am

Still want the massclaim, btw, but it can probably wait til tomorrow at this point.

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Post Post #8424  (isolation #331)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:20 am

In post 8414, DrewVa wrote:Doesn't even matter today given we can't also be a redirector

Jingle can argue we can be a scum activator if he wants tomorrow but there is no way our flip resolves stickygate; at this point only a profii/bef flip does that

-d


I don't think you're a scum activator. I think that clearing you based on role is silly.
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Post Post #8436  (isolation #332)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:28 am

Yarp.
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Post Post #8440  (isolation #333)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:32 am

Thanos - friendly neighbor
Jingle - commuter
Profii - inventor *
UnaBombah - named townie
Elsa Jay - miller
DrewVa - activate *
BrightEyedFish - SFVendor *
Nev and Max - doc
RCEnigma - bunyip
Davesaz - invest
Creature - invest
Xtoxm - PR
Nero Cain - ?
Gamma Emerald - ?
PenguinPower - ?
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Post Post #8455  (isolation #334)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:48 am

Thanos - friendly neighbor
Jingle - commuter
Profii - inventor *
UnaBombah - weak named townie
Elsa Jay - weak miller
DrewVa - activate *
BrightEyedFish - SFVendor *
Nev and Max - doc
RCEnigma - bunyip
Davesaz - disloyal invest
Creature - disloyal invest
Xtoxm - PR
Nero Cain
Gamma Emerald
PenguinPower

I actually don't think anyone should claim shots remaining. It's not really relevant to town solving but it is to scum nightkills. Modifiers is definitely useful though.
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Post Post #8469  (isolation #335)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:03 am

In post 8459, davesaz wrote:My claim isn't technically specifying a role type, it's merely that the modifier makes it an invest.
I don't remember if Creature specified a role either.


I'm aware, it's just simpler to put it that way than a different way.
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Post Post #8475  (isolation #336)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:10 am

Dave:

The only way there is a redirector role is if one of profii/BEF/Drewva doesn't have the role they claimed.
BEF claims to have given profii fruit N1 and no one else fruit.
Profii claims to have given fruit to NOT TLK N2.
TLK received fruit N2.

The only way this isn't actually a dichotomy is if Drewva isn't actually an activator. Not isn't town, but doesn't have specifically the role that she claimed to have. BEF could be lying and could have given TLK fruit N2 or profii could be lying and could have given TLK fruit N2.
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Post Post #8478  (isolation #337)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:16 am

Yarp. It’s the equivalent of the old greylist.
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Post Post #8481  (isolation #338)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:24 am

Apparently his loyal invent target, who he needs to out.
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Post Post #8485  (isolation #339)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:27 am

Or, alternatively BEF had another shot and used it night two on TLK.
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Post Post #8489  (isolation #340)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:29 am

Unless you are scum, lying. Hence one of you and profii is scum.

Yup. Which means if BEF is scum so is someone who won N1.
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Post Post #8492  (isolation #341)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:31 am

im going to wait for profii’s response before I talk about that.
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Post Post #8500  (isolation #342)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:37 am

If he was aware delaying the claim this long makes no sense as town and claiming at all makes no sense as scum, so he probably wasn’t.
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Post Post #8507  (isolation #343)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:39 am

What? I’m pretty sure everyone is on the same page re: BEF realclaimed.
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Post Post #8508  (isolation #344)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:40 am

N&M is probably silver by massclaim. It’s not worth fighting until then.
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Post Post #8511  (isolation #345)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:41 am

Solved, not silver.
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Post Post #8515  (isolation #346)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:45 am

Eh. This is a fairly tame role madness large.
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Post Post #8517  (isolation #347)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:48 am

That sounds like a kids book.
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Post Post #8518  (isolation #348)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:51 am

So Drewva, did profii tell you who he made loyal/loud etc ind your neighborhood?
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Post Post #8623  (isolation #349)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:16 am

In post 8617, BrightEyedFish wrote:How would a town!me flip help the rest solve the problems with the fruit. Because you will have the exact same info you have now--just one less town.


A town you flip neccessarily means profii is scum. A town profii flip necessarily means you are scum. Thus, dichotomy.
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Post Post #8625  (isolation #350)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:16 am

In post 8619, DrewVa wrote:Is there any conceivable way you are both town that doesn't require mod error or a bastard game lol?


Only if you're not actually an activator. So no.

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Post Post #8627  (isolation #351)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:18 am

In post 8624, RCEnigma wrote:I think Profiis stickyfruit comment was glossed over. In the rolecard it is implied the stickyfruit has an ability. If the stickyfruit ability transfers itself to the receivers target then it isn't necessarily a cross claim.


Nope. This would mean that stickyfruit would have transferred itself to profii's target N1. Penguin.
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Post Post #8633  (isolation #352)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:20 am

Oh yeah. Creature confirmation and profii townflip incriminates Penguin. BEF scumflip incriminates one of the day 1 winners.
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Post Post #8639  (isolation #353)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:23 am

In post 8630, BrightEyedFish wrote:How? I have no loyal modifiers or anything. I could have given the fruit to town or scum profii.


Because one of you is lying about night action resolution. For TLK to have recieved sticky fruit N2, profii has to have sent TLK sticky fruit N2 or you have to have sent TLK sticky fruit N2. There is no potential redirection role.

As town you don't have a reason to lie. As town profii doesn't have a reason to lie.

btw, I'm voting BEF not because I don't believe him (I think both have strong townreasoning) but because scum stickyfruit vendor makes more sense and is more dangerous to town than scum loyal inventor.
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Post Post #8642  (isolation #354)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:27 am

In post 8637, RCEnigma wrote:Anything that incriminates Penguin incriminates drewva.


Nope. For drewva to be incriminated Penguin has to necessarily be telling the truth. It is possible that Penguin isn't actually loyal. It certainly implies that DrewVa would be scum, but in no way confirms it.
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Post Post #8643  (isolation #355)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:28 am

In post 8636, DrewVa wrote:I think creature loud makes or breaks this

If creature didn't get loud then ss might have jailed you n2 and bef could have fruited tlk

-d


+1
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Post Post #8653  (isolation #356)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:41 am

+1
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Post Post #8656  (isolation #357)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:44 am

Not necessarily. Profii could have been blocked.
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Post Post #8659  (isolation #358)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:45 am

In post 8655, RCEnigma wrote:Then we would have to assume SS had multiple shots by night 3. Which would mean one scum with night 1/night 2 winners.


We have no proof that SS acted twice, even then. There is theoretically a chance something else stopped DrewVa's vig shot, so there's no proof that SS jailed EJ/DrewVa.
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Post Post #8661  (isolation #359)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:47 am

Potential rolestopper on PP.

The implication is there, incrimination means they are confirmed.

I'd still want to flip DrewVa to be sure, but it wouldn't be a 100% thing.
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Post Post #8665  (isolation #360)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:00 am

Thanos - friendly neighbor
Jingle - commuter
Profii - inventor *
UnaBombah - weak named townie
Elsa Jay - weak miller
DrewVa - activate *
BrightEyedFish - SFVendor *
Nev and Max - doc
RCEnigma - bunyip
PenguinPower - loyal FV
Davesaz - disloyal invest
Creature - disloyal loud? weak invest
Xtoxm - PR
Nero Cain
Gamma Emerald

I actually don't think anyone should claim shots remaining. It's not really relevant to town solving but it is to scum nightkills. Modifiers is definitely useful though.
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Post Post #8666  (isolation #361)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:01 am

In post 8648, Thanos wrote:Oh yeah, he targeted me lol. Checked PMs and there's nothing. He can't be loud.


If Creat is trueclaiming he's disloyal. Thus if you are town he wouldn't have succeeded with an action on you if he was town and you wouldn't have received loud notifications.
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Post Post #8668  (isolation #362)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:02 am

I'm not actually sure creat is weak but I thought I remembered someone giving him that.
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Post Post #8672  (isolation #363)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:06 am

In post 8669, DrewVa wrote:
In post 8666, Jingle wrote:
In post 8648, Thanos wrote:Oh yeah, he targeted me lol. Checked PMs and there's nothing. He can't be loud.


If Creat is trueclaiming he's disloyal. Thus if you are town he wouldn't have succeeded with an action on you if he was town and you wouldn't have received loud notifications.


so since creature says he failed every night that would mean we need to hear from him whether he received loud or not?

-d


Yes.

In post 8670, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 8668, Jingle wrote:I'm not actually sure creat is weak but I thought I remembered someone giving him that.


He claimed ascetic.


Oh. Right.
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Post Post #8673  (isolation #364)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:15 am

And now... We wait.
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Post Post #8674  (isolation #365)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:32 am

Oh btw, I gave inaccurate self meta earlier. I did replace into scum in Succinct mafia, then promptly openwolfed until they lynched me.
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Post Post #8677  (isolation #366)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:52 am

1v1 between profii and BEF.

Turns out I was right. Massclaim was smart. :good:
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Post Post #8807  (isolation #367)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:04 pm

Glad that everyone else has gotten to the same place as me.

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Post Post #8874  (isolation #368)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:33 pm

This argument bores me. Can we go ahead and lynch BEF yet?
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Post Post #8881  (isolation #369)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:38 pm

Why don’t y’all take a 48 hour break from the thread and calm down?
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Post Post #8888  (isolation #370)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:43 pm

So am I obvtown yet? Or do I have to lynch 4 scum first?
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Post Post #8894  (isolation #371)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:55 pm

TBF, I'm not telling any individual player to cool off. I want the day to end.

I explained why I want BEF lynched. To be perfectly honest, I don't care which of them is scum. BEF has the greater potential to be dangerous tonight as scum (SFVendor is functionally a strongman for scum or a prevention of a town investigation). Therefore, we lynch BEF first. Neither has high intrinsic value as town. (Profii has run out of shots, BEF just stops town synergy).

And you/Drewva fighting today doesn't help anyone. Because neither of you is going to get lynched and which one of you is right is solved by the flip at the end of the day. You two can have fun trying to convince everyone the other is scum tomorrow if you're still alive, but given your claim and an innocent result on DrewVa, it's very reasonable one of you will be dead and I won't have to listen to it.

And if both of you are alive tomorrow (and we hit scum today) I'm just going to be pushing for massclaim again so that I can solve the game and stop caring.
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Post Post #8898  (isolation #372)  » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:01 pm

Cool. I'll be active again when marathon weekend is over. :P
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Post Post #8906  (isolation #373)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:18 am

You can't. I asked N3 when I replaced in.
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Post Post #8908  (isolation #374)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:19 am

Or rather, I attempted to give weak and the +1 to two separate people and Boon was mean and said no.
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Post Post #8939  (isolation #375)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:13 am

Eh. Joat is only normal if all the parts are normal, so I’d argue it’s probably variant even if the role says joat. Simple enough to ask boon though.

@boon: would a joat with variant abilities be a variant?

Petit: nvm
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Post Post #8948  (isolation #376)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:22 am

In post 8900, DrewVa wrote:Given that there's been a lot of noise in thread I'm making my wallpost catchup and trying to make it as digestible as possible.

Spoiler: DVa on the 1v1
In post 8738, DrewVa wrote:
In post 8733, Xtoxm wrote:BEF walking into a 1v1 that conf deaths him within 2 days seems less likely to come from scum


As Jingle observed, it's safe to say that BEF was not aware he was walking into a mechanical 1v1 as either alignment -- if he was town he would have claimed as soon as our slot claimed Town Grifter (referred to by everyone as 'activate' lately), if he was scum it makes little sense for him to create this 1v1.

I have been trying to eliminate the possibility that this is somehow an NAR issue and that it's T/T, given BEF struck me as very townie in the way he claimed, however most options still come back to "one of the two has to be lying." If the sticky fruit could travel to multiple people in one night, that would mean he was lying about his role card afaik.

I have confirmed from Boon that profii could in fact target PP with sticky fruit and Creature with Loud the same night without multitasking, so there's no convenient scumclaim there that would settle this.

It would help if Creature actually confirmed whether or not he got the loud so that we could confirm that theory 2 is a real possibility.

Theory 1: Profii sent the sticky fruit to TLK and lied about it to implicate TLK and create a very confusing mechanical quasi 1v1 d2. Weird play as scum.

Theory 2: BEF sent the sticky fruit to Profii n1, then had S_S jail Profii n2, while sending the sticky fruit to TLK, thus generating a mechanical 1v1 between the supersaint and the variant role inventor.

Theory 3: There is some other explanation.

The problem with theory 3 is that, if the sticky fruit can only travel to one person each night as the role card on page 1 suggests, then I don't see how BEF is not lying about his rolecard for it to somehow end up at TLK. If BEF is a 'variant sticky fruit vendor' then he is lying about being a normal sticky fruit vendor.

Theory 4: Mod/human error.

No idea how to play around this, but we did get TLK to confirm his statements multiple times, and I feel like if Boon had actually made a mistake he would have said so real life weeks ago. I will say that I have asked the duck a couple questions about this, and his answers have on one key point actually differed from Boon's, so I don't think the mechanics of everything here is super obvious. (The duck was not aware that Profii could vend the sticky fruit to one person and still target creature with a separate night action without multitasking; boon said he could. Still not enough to make me think mod error, though, given boon's response matches profii's description of his choices at night.)

My top priority since this began has been eliminating the possibilty that Profii and BEF are both T/T and that this is not actually a true mechanical 1v1, but so far I see now way that is possible given the information we have at hand.

I have tried to eliminate the following risks:
-One of the three variant/boon roles is not a variant/boon role. As far as I can tell, all three must be variant/boon roles so a redirector cannot exist.

-The sticky fruit did not act as we expected. I don't see how this is possible; if the sticky fruit travels to each person who is targeting someone else, then it should have ended up on PenguinPower night 1. Profii has confirmed he still had the sticky fruit night 2.

-BEF did not understand his role. We have talked to BEF about his role at length at this point and I don't see how this is a possibility.

I keep trying to find something that makes this not a 1v1 and I keep coming up short. This is leaving me to conclude that either Theory 1 or Theory 2 is the most likely to be the case and this is an actual 1v1.

-d


tl;dr: BEF vs profii looks like a real 1v1 that we should resolve with a flip.

Spoiler: DVa on who is the better lynch between profii and BEF
In post 8817, DrewVa wrote:
In post 8738, DrewVa wrote:, while sending the sticky fruit to TLK, thus generating a mechanical 1v1 between the supersaint and the variant role inventor.


in this theory, someone, probably S_S, came up with the idea to create a mechanical cross-claim between two town, by using the jailkeep to create wifom in addition to BEF's role, which here would presumably be an every-night sticky fruit vendor.

So BEF n1 -- fruits profii
BEF n2 -- fruit sTLK
BEF n3 -- Maybe Elsa (if Elsa is scum BP)?
BEF n4 -- maybe Jingle (if Jingle is not town commuter)?

like bearing in mind how many people have either acted like commuters, have some sort of ascetic modifier, or have had a wide range of actions fail on them, it is not impossible that a scum sticky fruit vendor has in fact been vending sticky fruit to scum.

This is the line of reasoning I believe that Jingle was following (which would imply perhaps that Jingle is actually a town commuter perhaps), that is, that scum sticky fruit vendor would make sense in a setup where there are so many loyalized actions, where players like Profii can create loyalized visitors, etc. etc. From a setup/design perspective, BEF's role sounds like a scum counter to Profii's role, although that in and of itself should not convince anyone, just something I noticed.

Additionally, there is an argument to be made that the sticky fruit vendor is at best a kind of town miller. It is a role that, unless modified with a pro-town modifier like loyal, is explicitly anti-utility, given town's need to create mechanical clears through loyal/disloyal actions.

When we are thinking about BEF's play, another question emerges: BEF says he vended to profii n1 because he was worried he would die and he wanted to use it. But, BEF had entered a boonus room where he saw that he could get a loyal modifier, potentially. This being the case, why would he not hold his sticky fruit shot and ask to be gifted a loyal modifier, which would in effect turn his negative utility action for town (vending sticky fruit) into a pro-town action?

So there is at least some merit to Jingle's argument that BEF may be a useful lynch to eliminate wifom regardless of role, ESPECIALLY if we do conclude that this is a true mechanical 1v1 between Profii and BEF. Given Creature's testimony that he has not been made loud, this reinforces the evidence pointing toward a true mechanical 1v1.

For BEF scum there are:
-Arguments from setup spec (sticky fruit vendor seems like a pro-scum role)
-Arguments from play (pushing the dayrep theory, although actually there was one little part of that I didn't hate, but he's way over-emphasized it)
-Arguments for eliminating wifom (if we are wrong, profii should be caught scum, and at least we would know there are not additional sticky fruit floating around the setup, eliminating the strength of our clears)

For BEF town though there are:
-Arguments from tone (his frustration with me in particular in certain respects could easily come from town)
-Arguments from motive (it's not clear why he claimed in the way he did today as scum; and if he did, it may have been a mistake)

vs.

For Profii scum there is:
-Arguments from presence (I feel like profii usually has a bit more presence in the thread as town)

For Profii town there is:
-Arguments from pro-town actions and attentiveness (Profii made PP loyal, because profii believed that PP was a fruit vendor. This suggests profii was actively thinking about how to use his role in a pro-town way from very early on in the game)
-Arguments from tone (Profii has seemed pretty genuinely confused by today's discussion)
-Arguments from point of view (Profii was aware that he could vend a sticky fruit and use a night action at the same time, which is not something I would have thought was possible, but is possible--him knowing this increases the plausibility at least that he did intend to actually send the sticky fruit to a different target than his night action)

Given I believe there are some arguments on each side, this also raises another question:
Should town resolve this 1v1 today? We have multiple loyal/disloyal actions, etc. And here we might consider Jingle's argument -- if we're wrong about BEF, we will have significantly more wifom in regard to proving night actions. Even a green flip on BEF as a mislynch is not explicitly bad for the town in terms of helping us solve the game and create the strongest pro-town endgame.

While N&M may not be keen on the idea, my preference would be for him to be leashed to PenguinPower, to ensure that Penguin gets his fruit off tonight and is alive tomorrow.

-d


tl;dr:
In post 8818, DrewVa wrote:Given all the available evidence, testimony, and the nature of the setup, I support a BEF lynch today.

-d


You: if that's the case, why hasn't your slot already voted to end day?

answer:
In post 8827, DrewVa wrote:[part of this post shortened]
there are some outstanding questions for profii:

-What was his reasoning in choosing to use his ascetic shot at all? Why would he make Una ascetic? How was that a pro-town decision?
-Why did he not use his neighborhood shot last night? Wouldn't he want to prove that the shot was real, given that it was given to him by scum?
-Why has he not been more forthcoming about the timing of his neighborhood with Nero, given the timing of Nero's neighborhood shot is significant for understanding who possibly fed scum +1 charges n1?

[...] I'm not in a rush to end the day before profii addresses these points if people do want to advance him as the lynch for today.

-d


In short, I'd like to confirm that we have a majority on BEF, and I'd like profii to answer a few last questions. After that, I am ready for a flip on BEF.

-d

In post 8945, Creature wrote:Could you link atleast? I'm on mobile and having class.


Kay.
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Post Post #8950  (isolation #377)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:25 am

I picked that one cause it was literally last pages pagetop.
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Post Post #8952  (isolation #378)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:28 am

Mechanical 1v1 between BEF and profii. One of them is confirmed to be lying.

BEF is the stronger role for scum, so lynch there first.

N&M, if reelclaiming, is potentially useful for town tonight.
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Post Post #8953  (isolation #379)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:29 am

Oh, hey, I summarized what feels like 400 pages in three lines. I must be a wizard of some sort.
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Post Post #8955  (isolation #380)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:33 am

No, but that was evidence to support that BEF may be more likely to be lying.

Setup wise we can't have a re director.

Profii claims to have given PP SF N2.
BEF claims to have given no one SF N2.
TLK received SF N2.

One of the three is lying. We're assuming the flipped town player isn't the one responsible.
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Post Post #8956  (isolation #381)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:35 am

The you being loud bit was Profii claims to have made you loud N2, so either he's lying about that part too or he was blocked and BEF gave fruit.

Or you're lying and are actually loud, but that doesn't really change the one of profii/BEF is necessarily scum.
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Post Post #9001  (isolation #382)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:26 pm

In post 8995, DrewVa wrote:Emphasis, I didn’t address it to Boon but his answer will hopefully clear up which of BEF/Profil is more likely to be telling the truth about stickygate.


Narp.

Scenario A.

Profii Scum, Creat Scum, No Loud- Profii didn't action.
Profii Scum, Creat Town, No Loud- Profii didn't action.
Profii Town, Creat Scum, No Loud- Profii blockededed.
Profii Town, Creat Town, No Loud- Profii blockededed.

Scenario 1

Profii Scum, Creat Scum, Loud- lmao.
Profii Scum, Creat Town, Loud- Profii actionated.
Profii Town, Creat Scum, Loud- Profii actionated.
Profii Town, Creat Town, Loud- Profii actionated.

This whole series of questions solves nothing about profii except possibly proving that he has the role we all assume he has.
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Post Post #9004  (isolation #383)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:30 pm

Yup. We fully mechanically solved the game. Scum should probably just concede to prevent drawing this out to its inevitable conclusion.
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Post Post #9005  (isolation #384)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:34 pm

In post 9003, BrightEyedFish wrote:This is a good post. But how does my flip fit in these equation?


You're uh... still in a mechanical 1v1 with profii?

Creature claiming loud implies scum in {Creature/profii/PP} or the existence of a scum rolestopper. You could argue that getting creature to commit to whether he's loud or not helps point the lynch at profii if he is, but the amount of effort to get this is :neutral:. And I'm kinda leaning lynch creature from the not being able to tell if he's loud or not.
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Post Post #9008  (isolation #385)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:40 pm

Nope. We're definitely lynching in you/profii today. None of the other associations are strong enough to chain lynches.

Nice try tho.
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Post Post #9016  (isolation #386)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:47 pm

Your alignment is opposite profii's (barring ridiculous scum theater, but I'm pretty sure that's not the case at this point). If we mislynch today we lynch scum tomorrow.
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Post Post #9021  (isolation #387)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:04 pm

Elvis is alive and living with the mole people?
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Post Post #9026  (isolation #388)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:39 pm

My theory is that scum share a confessional because it would cut down on the number of threads Boon has to check and there's no reason it couldn't be shared.
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Post Post #9028  (isolation #389)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:42 pm

Oh. That's extra work for no reason.

Still, I was ready for day end like two weeks ago, and I doubt that's going to change. I'll effort if I think we're not winning.
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Post Post #9032  (isolation #390)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:46 pm

So, we lynch BEF, and if he flips scum we lynch N&M because half of them used to be BEF.
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Post Post #9065  (isolation #391)  » Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:03 pm

VOTE: End the day
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Post Post #9257  (isolation #392)  » Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:41 pm

VOTE: BEF

GE, N3 target?
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Post Post #9258  (isolation #393)  » Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:43 pm

I guess if dave has a confed target he should claim too. Otherwise, go ahead and end the day.
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Post Post #9263  (isolation #394)  » Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:12 pm

We attempted to hammer BEF. Instead, drewva died. We're lynching BEF after relevant claims happen.
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Post Post #9271  (isolation #395)  » Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:52 pm

Do you have a clear/guilty to share dave?
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Post Post #9295  (isolation #396)  » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:30 pm

In post 9290, Elsa Jay wrote:I ain't dumb, fishy boy. Jingle hasn't even posted today.


God, Jingle should talk more.
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Post Post #9297  (isolation #397)  » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:32 pm

In post 9286, BrightEyedFish wrote:
In post 9285, PenguinPower wrote:Remember that a vengeful action didn't actually occur, and scum would know that without your flip it would not appear vengeful.

p-edit

No...*sigh* we went over this yesterday, so I'm not going to do it again.


Ok. Just humor me then please.

What would have to happen for you to not want to lynch me today?


I promise not to lynch you if you get modkilled.
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Post Post #9312  (isolation #398)  » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:44 pm

We can deal with boonus round thingies tomorrow.
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Post Post #9331  (isolation #399)  » Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:10 pm

In post 9323, PenguinPower wrote:Unfortunately, I give up all powers in every game I join.


TIL: becoming listmod vanillaizes you.
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