Anime U-Pick: King Size [SEASON FINALE...?]

[Torque]

0%. We have 2 flipped scums right?

ye.

really? 0% is kinda surprising
mine is like probably around a 10%. why is it a 0%?

[Pink Ball]

A 19 player game with a scum faction of 3? That would be hideous

[Torque]

Do I really have to mention joan is scum too

[Pink Ball]

Oooooooooh I thought you were talking about Wisdom being the only remaining scum

[Torque]

I actually do realy wanna hear your opinion on the chances of wisdom being wolf with joan

cause i won't lie, his nl plan is actually not that bad from a town wisdom pov. the only flaw for me is if he was a wolf, lynching chito & yuuri obviously is game winning for him

[Pink Ball]

I've thought that plenty of times. But I've thought plenty of scum combinations plenty of times. And my answer is still the same: I'm an incompetent for this game since the 1v1 with mastina on D1, and the scumteam knows that, and that's why I'm still carrying this burden

[Tatsuya Kaname]

Anime U-Pick: King size

Votecount 5.3

Joan of Arc

(1) - Chito and Yuuri

Not Voting (4): Liger_Zero, Pink Ball, Torque, Near x Mello, Joan of Arc

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Day 5 deadline is in (expired on 2019-04-07 20:00:00)

[Tatsuya Kaname]

Prodding three people, they have (expired on 2019-03-30 11:27:49)

[Joan of Arc]

Hi.

[Near x Mello]

hi indeed

[Near x Mello]

this one week restriction is really silly

it should at least not be active in mylo/lylo

[Pink Ball]

I wasn't prodded, but hi

[Torque]

prod dodge

[Chito and Yuuri]

Chito: Tempting to take the inactivity replacement since I kinda just stopped feeling this game, but I guess I'll drop the wall I've been playing with in the PT. I keep second guessing myself on Wisdom frankly but this is probably the best solve I'm coming up with at this point.

***

It's definitely Joan and I'm feeling fewer problems with Joan/Wisdom.

The main question remains Liger/A50 slot. I still find it very hard to see him as scum, even though his vote record is as a bad as most of the rest of the playerlist. If he is town, and subconsciously was worried he was wrong on Wisdom, Elena, and mastina, he might have replaced out for that reason. But beyond that, with the PT interactions, I think he's a fairly high likelihood townflip.

Wisdom I wanted to strongly townread for the Vedith wagon, not only because he was on it so early and rode it for so long, but more because he unvoted after the claim and I didn't think that if he was going for a bus he would get off at that point. But the more I think about it, the more I think I might have had that backward: Wisdom would get off, if he actually thought the claim would save him. OR, if Wisdom believed him -- do we even know if the scum had a pre-game? He might have thought he was bussing a goon and then was worried after the claim that he was lynching a scum doctor. The bigger question is, does town!Wisdom choke on the Vedith wagon over a roleclaim? I don't think so.

Aside from that, Wisdom's pushes on scum slots have all been mediocre, and his pushes on town slots have been enthusiastic and full of energy. Yet not so much energy that he always forces his target to actually get lynched, which allows the 1v1s to fester. That he allowed RC to redirect onto Creature-slot is also highly suspect in this regard. There are two slots that are unflipped on Creature's wagon -- Joan and N&M. If Joan is scum, then okay, maybe scum just hammered and the rest of the wagon was town. But at this point it looks to me like, based on the speed of the wagon, there were two scum on the wagon -- both of the remaining scum.

In Wisdom's current solve, there are 0 scum on Creature's wagon. I find that very hard to believe.

As for Joan, Joan just is scum.

Torque does not instigate a mechanical 1v1 as WvT before massclaim.

Torque does not instigate a mechanical 1v1 as WvW before massclaim.

So Torque I think is simply town.

Joan is obviously scum, she has been playing to her scum meta almost to a T in terms of Story Revisited. And it is actually in this regard that you can see why she is scum with Wisdom more easily.

Joan as scum tends to talk *to* her scumbuddies more, whereas she tends to talk *at* town more. In Story Revisited, Joan spent the entire game talking *to* mastina, and had a harder time interacting with other players that weren't scum. Here, she has spent a lot of time talking *to* Wisdom, instigating this theater, that Wisdom then uses as a smokescreen to push suspicion off of her.

In addition to that, Joan's failure to really solve around Torque's mechanical 1v1 is exactly the same way that she responded to a parity cop guilty in Story Revisited; she tends to try to just ignore mechanical guilties and hope they go away, basically, instead of responding to them in the way town would.

That Wisdom continues to deflect off Joan reflects the same strategy that he has used all game--open wolfing, while continuing to emphasize that his meta is one of aggressive bussing. Wisdom doesn't always bus, but what's more, it's very hard to see him having a game this bad as town. His reads do tend to get better as games go on, and he should be seeing Joan as scum here. That he is not is highly scum indicative.

He also says he has already targeted Torque with a delayed protection ability and that he cannot be vigged the same night that my vig is up. He claims to not have a night 1 but instead to have nights 2, 3, and 4. He claims to be a commuter that can visit people anyway. His role is highly suspect, and that his role seems tailored to deny abilities post massclaim is highly suspect.

If I am wrong, it can... somehow?... be Liger? But I think the simplest and most elegant solve is Joan + Wisdom.

If Wisdom is lying about having sent a 2-day delaying protection on Torque, and continues to emphasize that scum have no additional possible multikill or other mechanics-negating effect (despite the fact scum would probably be lying about their role), and instead says that we need to wait and see more, suggests to me that Wisdom has scum motivation in pushing a No Lynch today. I can't lynch Joan on my own but I still don't think the no lynch plan is optimal with a conftown slot in Pink Ball. In mylo situations in normal games, there is an argument for no lynch. There is also an argument for no lynch here, but since I know I am not a scum vigilante, and I feel like my role is fairly strong for town (when the cop doesn't get blocked by Dunn...) the likelihood that Wisdom is lying about one of his actions or has something that would allow him to get a double kill in tonight seems not too low. He's not crazy for suggesting No Lynch if he is somehow town, but with a conftown slot and unknown scum large theme powers, I disagree with it.

[Near x Mello]

but with a conftown slot

if pink ball dies you get a free investigation and basically solve the game

yet you are against it

[Near x Mello]

also i disagree with everything you said about joan but thats obvious and doesnt have to be repeated

[Near x Mello]

what i do agree with is that liger is town

If youre somehow town the most likely solve is torque/joan

[Chito and Yuuri]

if pink ball dies you get a free investigation and basically solve the game

yet you are against it

Your whole rationale is that "there's probably no scum vig because if there was a scum vig it's chiito and yuuri" which is weak reasoning, something I know is objectively false, and makes me wonder whether you have some sort of reason to want NL from scum motivation. I just assume that whatever you think we get in terms of a solve from no lynching I just assume will definitely not happen. If scum think I don't actually get lynched they shoot me, if scum think they win in lylo by keeping me alive because of your read, then they do, I just feel no confidence that the game ends up won regardless of who I target or what the result is. Your insistence that there is unlikely to be a scum vig is making me think the chance there is much more likely.

[Near x Mello]

whether they kill you or not, it's information

i cant believe im still arguing this

[Chito and Yuuri]

Chito: You keep arguing it because you refuse to explain why Torque is scum or Joan is town in any sort of logical way, so of course you keep going back to the policy reasons to no lynch. It is literally only informative for you and Liger. Pink already thinks Joan is scum, Torque has a mechanical guilty, and I think Joan is scum, so the only other person who would even conceivably benefit from this round of night actions you decided we had to wait a week for is Liger, who we then would have to wait another week next dayphase for as well.

Even though Torque being scum is the entire basis for your wanting to wait a week, you haven't really argued that to Pink or seemed to care that the conftown has opposite reads of you. So yeah, the argument is boring because you are choosing to make the boring argument and keep the conversation focused on that. As far as I can tell, you think Joan is town because you say Joan is town, and that's about it. Then you complain about arguing the no lynch point still when you're ignoring the larger gamestate, presumably because tomorrow will be easier when you have to convince one fewer person to mislynch Torque.

[Near x Mello]

its not informative for you?

[Near x Mello]

i cannot fathom how someone who is granted a cop shot can argue its informative only for others

[Near x Mello]

and i dont explain why torque is scum because i dont know that torque is scum

until now i thought hes town

but at least one of him and joan is scum and joan is townier

[Chito and Yuuri]

Chito: Entering the dead thread is not my preferred form of gaining information to win the game.

Flipping my role card is not an interesting way of demonstrating my towniness.

My flip does nothing to resolve Joan vs Torque, which is something that will still be ongoing tomorrow, the game will still hinge on, and which you refuse to deal with. The only argument I've heard from you on Joan being townier than Torque is meta. Your argument that I make sense as scum with Torque over scum with Joan also doesn't really make sense, it seems like just an excuse for you to call Torque scum either way without actually explaining how you reach that conclusion.

[Near x Mello]

if you flip, thats still information to the rest of us

if you dont, you gain information