Mini Normal 2067: Musicals [Endgame]

[RCEnigma]

Do I need to lynch Ausuka?

I don't know, do you?

RCE what are your reads right now?

Ausuka/fusco/baezu/SS/cby as town or townleans

FL is in a void of his own.

I like slaxx better than siv but not enough to move into my town.
Liked Vorkuta early but he's playing at this ate game that I don't really recall from his town games.

I think my pool would probably be something like Vorkuta/alchemist/slaxx/HitAlt

I think Umlaut is the only person I'm leaving out but I have 0 read and anyone that claims otherwise is bs'ing.

[Vedith]

I think Umlaut was town.

[RCEnigma]

But do you know?

[Vedith]

I wouldn't bet my life on it...

[RCEnigma]

Lol I like the confidence.

[Flavor Leaf]

Lol, RCE, pretty sure Vedith is Umlaut

[Flavor Leaf]

*slot

[Vorkuta]

Liked Vorkuta early but he's playing at this ate game that I don't really recall from his town games.

I beg to differ
-I relied much more heavily on 'gut' in my previous games, so now I'm trying to be more analytical about things
-Technically I 'did nothing but exist' in my previous games so I'm not sure where you got the baseline comparison from

Where are my AtEs at though?

[Vorkuta]

And I try to reignite the game with a Fus push, but I feel like no one else is addressing/acknowledging a scum!Fus probability.
We need a wagon and alternative that satisfies everyone BEFORE the deadline.

Can we like... productive activity anytime soon please?

[volxen]

It’s possible and probably probable (lol?) that there’s 3.

But 13->12 means one less mislynch on average, so 2 could be a thing if town isnt stacked.

The whole reason I liked Ausuka’s two scum analysis is because it seemed like it was a lack of information on how many scum there are.

But 12 makes 2 more possible so it could be tmi.

I’m moving Ausuka down to lean town I think, the rest of their play has still been Townie. That’s just giving me reservations.

But if this game really is 10vs2, I don't think that scum!Ausuka would have any motivation in correctly pointing out the fact that there are only two scum. If anything, it would be better for scum!her if everyone incorrectly believes that there are three scum rather than two. This would, for example, make it easier for her to justify having more scumreads which in-turn makes it easier for her to push mislynches. It's just all-around better for scum to keep town in the dark about this.

So it only makes sense for scum!Ausuka to do this if there are in fact three scum and she's trying to downplay the number of scum. I don't play a lot of closed-setup games, but I think that 10vs2 is more likely than 9vs3 due to the issue of there being one less mislynch compared to 10vs3 and also the fact that 11/12 confirmations were required to start this game, implying that at least one scum had to confirm (both of which were points brought up earlier in the game).

I know since making this post you have called Ausuka "so town" and you are overall townreading her over her play separate from this setup discussion issue, I'm just not seeing why you moved her from a townread down to a townlean at the time of this post.

But this setup discussion aside, I have Ausuka as a strong townread based on her overall play and her recent reversal on her stance towards Baezu. In particular:

Subject: Gameshow Mafia: Mafia PT

If I were town I’d say I’d be the scummiest if all of us, but I’m scum and people seem to think I’m town when I play scum...let’s see how this plays out but I do kind of like momo’s gambit

Ok so I might be being stupid but like I think this makes Baezu waay more likely to be town? Because this was on April 2, and I don't think she has much reason to say this specifically as scum and kind of misinform her team-mates?

UNVOTE:

I don't think that scum!Ausuka would make that kind of post and link to the Gameshow Mafia PT and help the derail the Baezu wagon if Baezu is town. Ausuka seems to be mostly a consensus townread, so if she is scum she could easily continue to tunnel town!Baezu and get her lynched and she would just come across as a townie "pushing her reads". So if Baezu is town, I think that implies that Ausuka is town as well. The only reason for scum!Ausuka to reverse her stance on Baezu is if they are scum together, which I think is unlikely. Ausuka's towny play aside, the GameShow Mafia PT was not released at the start of this game or when the Baezu wagon started, so it's not like scum!Ausuka could have pre-planned to link to that post to help dismantle the wagon against Baezu if they are scum together.

[Vedith]

I read that entire post.

[Flavor Leaf]

Don’t assume it’s 10v2. This site’s been having some weird stuff lately.

I just won a 9v4 scum game, 9v3 is still viable. Maybe 9 v 2.5.

I had a theory that Cby was just scum, but Volxen post was really townie to me.

Pointing out Ausuka doesn’t likely link that as scum is townie. I don’t see a reason to comment on that either way if Volxen was scum.

Like I said, I’m starting this whole chain of actions way of finding scum, but that single chain strikes blue.

[Vedith]

Maybe 9 v 2.5

[volxen]

Don’t assume it’s 10v2. This site’s been having some weird stuff lately.

I just won a 9v4 scum game, 9v3 is still viable. Maybe 9 v 2.5.

I had a theory that Cby was just scum, but Volxen post was really townie to me.

Pointing out Ausuka doesn’t likely link that as scum is townie. I don’t see a reason to comment on that either way if Volxen was scum.

Like I said, I’m starting this whole chain of actions way of finding scum, but that single chain strikes blue.

Yes, this is a fair point. The vast majority of my games on this site have been open setups or semi-open setups, so I'm not the best at gauging whether 10vs2 or 9vs3 is more likely. I was just going by some of the earlier posts in this game which were suggesting that 10vs2 may be more likely than 9vs3.

[volxen]

@Vedith, Have you reconsidered your read on Ausuka at all in light of my 709? I think that's a strong case for town!Ausuka. Others have pointed out towny things she has done in this game as well.

[Vedith]

Can you bullet point why Town from that post?
In simple terms for my tiny brain!

[Vedith]

Actually, you know what Volxen... I like you and if you're going to put the effort into big posts I will take the effort to read them.
But this stays between us as I don't want other players to expect the same.

[Vedith]

Okay I read it \o/
So I don't think that Ausuka should be read as town for assuming/claiming 2 scum as it's NAI.
I agree with your reasoning to it, but also want to point out that if there is a traitor it's a good way to go "look at me I was almost right".

And pointing out Baezu as town could be LAMIST but I agree, I favour that as a town comment.

Where should I be voting if I'm wrong here?

[RCEnigma]

Lol, RCE, pretty sure Vedith is Umlaut

I know, we're bonding.

[Flavor Leaf]

Before recently I’d say it’s totally fine assuming 10v3 and the like, but I feel the normal Queue is trying to mess with that lately. I don’t know if I’m a fan, but change is always fine. I like things evolving.

[RCEnigma]

since the scum didn't feel like bussing (?) the wagon never went all the way through.

I'm not convinced with the argument.
I mean that should apply to me as well; I was the second person on the wagon and then unvoted off.

Or are you trying to look at the people who BOTH
-Never defended Bae
-Never voted for Bae
To try and guess who scum might be from that?

I thought of doing so, but then I got

shit on

strongly advised not to look at "pre-flip associations"

Ok- I'd like to propose a Fus wagon.
***insert disclaimer that my reads are bad and I'm not confident, but here's what I have so far.

The ISO dive shows a player that is full of filler content, anti-town in letting people get their core!town blocks up and running, and fence-sitting by trying to get others to do their dirty work for him.

-Early self vote and then discussion/dismissing/disregarding said self vote is suspicious: "Oh I self voted to spark discussion.... nvm this self vote talk is filler"
-Engages the inactive newbie (yours truly) and throws questions that serve no purpose my way that A: earn him townpoints "oh look, he's engaging people to talk" and B: earn him posts so he doesn't look like a lurker
-Claims to be a 'shitposter' which I view as insurance ahead of time for "oh my posts are bad? lawl I was just jking around"

Ignore the contentless crap and go gut him when he doesnt engage.

You wont get answers if you dont ask. Or maybe you want somebody else to ask for you? Thats a possible strategy, but not a good way to be townread or play day1.

This is really huge irony (or contrast between actions and words) IMHO, and on re-reading it a few times it almost sounds like LMAIST "humble bragging" about his own scum!fus strategy. i.e- "no one will suspect me if I tell people what I'm doing"

In addition to this analysis, he also scored a few "personal" gut scum points with me that I probably won't be able to use to convince you, but just personally ping me.

So VOTE: Fuscosco for the above, to provide a counter wagon for Baezu, and hopefully to jumpstart this game back into action.

And I try to reignite the game with a Fus push, but I feel like no one else is addressing/acknowledging a scum!Fus probability.
We need a wagon and alternative that satisfies everyone BEFORE the deadline.

Can we like... productive activity anytime soon please?

I just feel like you've been pushing this idea that the big bad bullies are pushing you around and that's why your reads are being ignored. I view you as a pretty intelligent player and don't think it suits your town game to act in that way.

[Baezu]

Looks like a lot has happened since this morning- will catch up in a few hours!

[RCEnigma]

Unless you guys are planning to catch 2-3 scum today I don't think the spec is important

VOTE: Vorkuta

[Vedith]

Should I sheep?

[Dannflor]

.