micro 858: silver 3 (ended game)

[Draco Lucky]

VOTE: Jungle Medicine

Serious.

-Slaxx

[Draco Lucky]

VOTE: Jungle Medicine

Serious.

-Slaxx

[Draco Lucky]

Vedith keeping promises. Conftown.

-Slaxx

[Draco Lucky]

i welcome all sheeps to join me in lynching the scum. better to follow me than this slaxx guy. he townread the vedith too quick, he cannot be trusted.

Bro

-Slaxx

[Draco Lucky]

JM saying my joke TR on Vedith was not to be trusted and calling three players obvtown on page 2 is lulz

[Draco Lucky]

Bit harsh. I’m the one leading your wagon.

You're not voting him

-Slaxx

[Draco Lucky]

The wagon he is on.

Oh.

I wouldn't be voting anyone he is voting.

-Slaxx

[Draco Lucky]

yeah you’re right.

VOTE: Jungle

ftr I got mild town vibes from Icon anyway

Good vote.

[Draco Lucky]

JM saying my joke TR on Vedith was not to be trusted and calling three players obvtown on page 2 is lulz

it's quite serious in fact.

i'll help you out, one of them was brass.

Icon/Brass/???

Genuinely curious what your third one is because I think you've backed yourself into a corner here.

-S

[Draco Lucky]

i thrive in corners of my own doing.

No, I want you to fucking answer this.

You said I can't be trusted
You said I TR Vedith too early right before saying that
You are voting Roster
And I have Icon/Brass as town
And at that point only other posters are Gemini with a bare vote and Pippin and Merry who you obviously aren't TRing

So DO TELL

Who is #3?

[Draco Lucky]

Oh wait nvm I’m an idiot.

He just got caught.

He either has to do a 180 on one of us, say that my TR on Vedith WASN"T too early, or call Gemini's RVS vote town. All of which are hard sells.

[Draco Lucky]

it's quite the opposite, my merry friend, i won't scumread you for existing but rather for not posting. i also offer you a townread in exchange for some help, all you have to do is confirm for the blind masses that i am in fact obvtown as i'm sure you've realized by now?

Answer me. Who is the third?

You're not going to just slither out of this.

[Draco Lucky]

i'm slithering quite fine, it's how we do things in the jungle. i guess i'm just bad town, no other reason i seem caught unless you think i'm atrocious scum who slipped this early?

You seem caught because you won't answer the damn question.

Who is #3?

[Draco Lucky]

I'd argue that you're either atrocious town or bad scum, not the other way around.

[Draco Lucky]

i guess you don't know how to apply poe because i'm talking about myself. do you disagree about my read on brass?

Lol

Why not just come out and say that right away?

And I'm NullTown on Brass.

[Draco Lucky]

And I might buy that line if other people saw you as town but I don't think anyone has. Even if that was your intent all along and that was legitimately your thought process your reaction to it was scummy af

[Draco Lucky]

Roster has caught flak for not posting content in at least one, maybe two games I have been in with him. I don't think anything he has done is AI yet, but I do think a you-red flip gives him high town equity.

[Draco Lucky]

i thrive in corners of my own doing.

That's townie...how?

It looks like you were baiting me into either getting over emotional or just giving up.

[Draco Lucky]

To put this more politely

Do you realize that your superior tone is antagonizing the slaxx hydra

Don't give him an out, it has nothing to do with his superior tone.

[Draco Lucky]

He literally tried to set me up to back off of him for town cred in #75

With

i think you're maybe town for pushing on me but truthfully i thought it was a bit too tunneled on your part to call you a legit townie yet. but you're doing better than merry who excused himself from posting, so that's nice at least.

[Draco Lucky]

I feel like I'm being talked above and its pissing me off.

[Draco Lucky]

Uncertain and if he's scum I'd prefer him not to have an excuse to derptunneling because it makes him a lot harder to read

I don't recall you playing any games with me where I was scum, except the Nightless Marathon.

[Draco Lucky]

i'm sorry if i'm pisising you off draco that's not my intention i guess my tone really just sucks, it'd be nice if someone pointed out exactly where so that i can remedy the issue.

Its more RC

UNVOTE:

I'll come back to this tonight after URAP2 and I talk and I cool off.

[Draco Lucky]

How about them beans, though?

What's the deal with the beans?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

No lynch is the name.of Brass main so I'm basically lynching Brass.

I'm pretty sure I played a game with both No Lynch and Brass in it lol

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I can confirm that Vedith is town. Iconeum on the other hand...

VOTE: Iconeum

was this an actual thing?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I meant are you town Brass.
Your post in 17 reminds me of Scum you.

What post did you mean to refer to?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I am amused.

yikes

don't tell me, show me, you know?

[Draco Lucky]

I'm not sure if you're just joking or not Brass but in the presentation of a silly replace out I wouldn't know if you have an alt I wouldn't try and know and I have no reason to think you have.
It was just a simple joke that picked your name as random to use as.

But no, I don't join games to just troll you

was the scummy post a joke, too?

-U2 (and the last post, too)

[Draco Lucky]

The wagon he is on.

The wagon he is on.

Oh.

I wouldn't be voting anyone he is voting.

-Slaxx

yeah you’re right.

VOTE: Jungle

I know my other half is a part of this, but I don't understand this exchange at all, lol. Neither of you know where the votes are lolol

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

why are you saying these things merry? i tend to think the players who skip out on early posting are the scums more often than random so this isn't helping me read you town.

Are you aware of RC in any way? know him, read a game of his, heard about him from the loosie guy on the corner, etc?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

it's quite the opposite, my merry friend, i won't scumread you for existing but rather for not posting. i also offer you a townread in exchange for some help, all you have to do is confirm for the blind masses that i am in fact obvtown as i'm sure you've realized by now?

I must have missed the post(s) that make you obv!town. Could you please point them out to me?

[Draco Lucky]

i guess you don't know how to apply poe because i'm talking about myself. do you disagree about my read on brass?

lol this is not a real thought process

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

i am in fact obvtown

i guess i'm just bad town

i guess you don't know how to apply poe because i'm talking about myself.

atrocious town it is!

in all seriousness i'm town & i think it's obvious now if it wasn't before.

i'm sorry to break this to you draco but my reaction wasn't scummy at all it was the natural reactions of a townie,

I don't know if I've ever seen someone claim town so much. If you keep repeating it, does that make it true?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

ok jungle let's make a deal

you stop being an obnoxious fuck and I make sure you don't get lynched today

deal?

can we not start the insults this quickly? for real

[Draco Lucky]

Uncertain and if he's scum I'd prefer him not to have an excuse to derptunneling because it makes him a lot harder to read

well, at least you have a great track record of reading me, right RC? =P

[Draco Lucky]

^last two were -U2. I'll do better

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

i'm townreading brass because he's an awkward mess as scum and that ain't him this game.

This didn't click until I saw brass' post later, but

If you've got a meta read for brass, I'm assuming you have heard of RC

So my question to you is, if RC were to let his hydra partner do the posting, would that be alignment indicative for him? If so, why and in which way?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Hello Everyone.
I'm here now. You are as funny as you think you are.

VOTE: Draco Lucky

That is a wonderful name, but I'm Reynard's Luna.

are you an alt? it's important.

[Draco Lucky]

I don't know if I've ever seen someone claim town so much. If you keep repeating it, does that make it true?

do you think this scummy?

I think it's probably scum indicative for all but new players, ya. And from your comment about BH, I don't think you're new? What's your experience?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

it's quite the opposite, my merry friend, i won't scumread you for existing but rather for not posting. i also offer you a townread in exchange for some help, all you have to do is confirm for the blind masses that i am in fact obvtown as i'm sure you've realized by now?

I must have missed the post(s) that make you obv!town. Could you please point them out to me?

this was a real question, btw =)

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

vedith and brass im town leaning for their early interaction. Specifically brass' frustration and vedith backing off

scum reading jungle and maybe roster? gotta let that one percolate tho

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

it's all my posts from my perspective but maybe i'm jumping the gun, hard to say until i hear from others in the game.

Come on, give me a real answer, mate. if you're town who was confident you were town-telling, that would show enough self awareness where you must have typed something where you thought to yourself "this should get me a town read."

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

So my question to you is, if RC were to let his hydra partner do the posting, would that be alignment indicative for him? If so, why and in which way?

i think this is a boring question with a boring answer and when i say 'boring' i mean not 'alignment indicative.' but if we're getting into deeper layers of analysis and really mining this tiny piece of information for all its worth:

Spoiler:

merry letting pippin do the postings comes from town more often than scum for quite dubious reasoning, that is why would rc let let scum skitter do the town telling when he's quite capable himself? i pause here only because rc prefers town over scum so i'd expect more posting from a town rc than a scum rc but overall it doesn't make sense for scum rc to leave the town telling to scum skitter, plus i can't imagine scum skitter would be too happy about that? no it's likely town.

Well, I certainly wasn't expecting this. What was your motivation for pushing him to post?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

ayyy, skitter! =)

tbf jm's pretty obviously an alt

You think he's lying, then? This is kind of important for my read because if he's new I think he's significantly more likely to be town.

I think you're right about vedith being a bit troll-y not being ai . I don't think I've seen him as scum, but there's no way he doesn't do it as both alignments.

I think backing off the troll like that might be ai, tho.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I feel like JM would be an alt, would need to do a real deep dive of everyone to really know metas being used.

I don't really care too much, though, because I feel confident I can read people without metas anyway.

Speaking of, how are you reading him?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

he has a pretty good personality read on me that i'm a little dubious he'd be able to pick up on by just reading a few of my games in the past couple of days; it makes me think that he's actually played with me at some point

the one post i kinda maybe liked of vedith's was 35 because he's kinda aware that he's gone too far and backed off before he riled brass up *too* much

pedit this is skitter

I get what you're talking about. Tho, the "I'm town" repetition feels right if he's new.

I don't really understand town reading him and thinking he's lying. What's the motivation from town?

Yeah, that's what I was talking about when I talked about Vedith backing off

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

to disassociate the account from existing players by hyping up the 'new' angle
i've seen it a lot (i don't know any of you and i'm brand new but i read a bunch of games and am an expert on your meta!) when they're really just an alt

don't think they're telling the truth about being a new player but i don't think ti's scummy either

that's reasonable. I don't think I've encountered this yet.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Brass, I'm kind of town reading rooster after your exchange. You getting that at all in retrospect?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

what parts are you townreading?

Mainly these two posts. it just seemed like scum would just make a read? Plus the tone kinda felt right. But I went back and skimmed through my last game with roster after my exchange with milkcarton and I'm not sure if that this exchange is actually town-indicative.

And the worst part is your town, so I’m not going to fight you.

Pedit: If I had substance I would say it. But I don’t.

It seemed that way to me.

And I probably should be able to. Just I can’t.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

The recent Rooster Brass interaction made me think of a TvT. Still they all need to be examined properly. Next week I will have time. Less than two days from now.

I'm interested in this, if you're around this morning?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

VOTE: starwing

I can get behind this

@Starwing Got any reads outside of roster and brass?

VOTE: Starwing

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

draco I really don't want to vote you because of

reasons

but I feel like you're scum and would appreciate you getting slaxx to talk to me if you're town.

I haven't heard from slaxx in a while, but I'll be sure to pass your request along when I do.

If you think I'm scum, you should probably push me. =)

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

The recent Rooster Brass interaction made me think of a TvT. Still they all need to be examined properly. Next week I will have time. Less than two days from now.

I'm interested in this, if you're around this morning?

-U2

What about it is interesting?

I was going to ask why it felt to you like TvT. The 'this' referred to the roster/brass exchange

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

@Starwing

Spoiler:

Rereading the game may be a good idea. What do we see?

Iconeum's No Lynch RVS is kinda sus. What reason could there be for it? What is it supposed to achieve?
Roster's response to it makes sense, but is Nai.
Turning the nolynuch of to Brass is slightly funny. The reaction is unreadable.
Vedith is typical.
Geminitwin's entrance, voting the other person who hadn't posted... Well one of the other people.
Draco townread on Vedith. It looks rather like a joke. Promises don't mean town and I'm sure the Slaxx knows that. (Confirmed next page)
Jungle doesn't sound like inexperienced scum, but he really doesn't look in experienced at all.

Draco scum read on Jungle is not unreasonable. Jungle should not call himself obv town. Though I know of a newbie who believed in her first game that since she was town anyone who scum read her was scum motivated. Jungle could honestly be town who thinks he's obvious, but is atrocious. I don't find him grating, or condescending. Just oblivious.

The U2 half of Draco seems as good as the other. They don't agree entirely, but it isn't the wrong kind of dissonance. I am not very familiar with Hydras however. It's been a while since I met one, and I don't know either head.

Jungle has far too much meta is he's really new. Yet I do not want to think he is lying.

Gemini has a town feel, but depending on associations. That's the main thing I see. People who can or cannot be together. I don't know is it's reliable though. But no association of Gemini and Jungle.

Reading Merry and Pippin is harder than just reading the Radiant himself, even though it's mostly him posting. Just having a differnt name causes him to look a little different. He's not manipulating things that I can see. But if they're scum, Post #240 is trying to pocket Jungle.

Brass looks like town, less confident on Roster.
Pippin and Merry (Unsigned, but looked like Pippin) have a good case on Iconeum being town. And they feel like town too. And Draco.

UNVOTE:

Oh, everyone is voting me. It's not going to make me post faster. But this is here now.

I'm trying to parse your reads here, so please correct me if I get anything wrong

town (no particular order)
Brass
Pippen+Merry
Roster
Us
Gemini (depneding on which associations?)

null
vedith


Iconium - not sure on this one, are you scum reading for the RVS or town reading because of M+P's case?)
How are you reading Jungle?

[Draco Lucky]

UNVOTE:

-Slaxx

I’ll catch up with this tonight.

[Draco Lucky]

Ew

Don’t you ew me. I shoved this game down my priority list, I want to have input before the lynch. Sorry.

[Draco Lucky]

No you just stopped any pressure on that spot.
A red flip means I lynch you. \o/

Ehh, we can always revote. I'd like an opportunity to engage w/ starwing a little more first.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I'm just going to go and claim VT here.
Just do the lynch if you don't believe it since it's no loss to town.

Its obvious that trying to have fun during games is just something that can't be done weather I try to Scum hunt or not.

yikes

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I can't speak for slaxx, but here's where I'm at

Order isn't meaningful

Town
Brass
Jungle
Roster

Not Town
Vedith
Merry+Pippin
Gemini
Starwing
Icon

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

uh i don't see much townie in that exchange tbh; his case on ico was retaliotary after ico voted him and was based on pre-flip associatives (day1 mind you), and he didn't have any reads outside of that

neither of the two posts you quoted feel townie to me either tbh
he doesn't have any reads outside of the pre-flip associatives (and doesn't even scumread either of them individually!) and when called out he just calls brass town and tries to end the convo

I just read this whole exchange again, and I'm still reading it as pretty town. I'm not saying it's a great case - it's not even a case - from roster, but the read feels spontaneous, consistent, and the tone feels right.

-He gets voted by roster and makes leap to associations. I agree that it's bad, and in a vacuum I'd call it scummy, sure.

Spoiler:

Iconeum scum reads both me and Jungle (equally?) but tries to push for my lynch when there's a hefty wagon on Jungle.

-U2
They're buddies.

Iconeum scum reads both me and Jungle (equally?) but tries to push for my lynch when there's a hefty wagon on Jungle.

They're buddies.

Please explain either your read on Jungle or Inconeum.

I didn't really until that post, which I just explained.

-Then this post? It reads pitch perfect for town that knows the truth is going to sound kind of scummy, but hey, that's the truth.

Also I know you wont believe me but I was literally going to vote Jungle before I got Ninja'd by the post from Draco. I slightly changed the content to make it fit the convo.

And then throughout the rest of the discussion of brass, when being pressured to make a read, he never tries to embellish his read as being more than just d1 vca/associatives. The whole thought process is consistent for a read that he gave as he formed it.

Writing it out, I guess none of it is miles outside of an average scum range, but it seems unlikely. Thoughts, Skitter?

[Draco Lucky]

UNVOTE:

-Slaxx

I’ll catch up with this tonight.

slaxx were you aware that you had unvoted off of l-1 here?

I'm sure he was. If he wasn't, I was when I came back, saw it, and left our vote off.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

i kinda like gemini actually

why? I'm pretty null on that slot

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Nothing in 371 is compelling, and most of it doesn't feel real.

Let's assume you actually tallied up his use of the word "really" as different alignments. For a tell like this you need real, statistically significant figures. For a tell like this you would probably want to find the number of instances per post and per 1000 words. I'm not sure which would be better. Then you'd have to show that his usage of that word here is more in line with his past scum games than his town games.

So what are the numbers?

And your analysis of his play is based on a number of assumptions that I don't think are necessarily true.

This is not a good case.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

vedith because there's literally nothing scummy in the posts, both content and intent wise.

Nothing pings you about 338?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Tone. And content. TvT is over things like that at times. Also it was in isolation and the first time my thoughts weren't shut out of firming reads due to rushed reading. The certainty is not as high.

If Jungle is new, instant learning pills really do exist. He has a brilliant vocabulary, and speaks of how he plays and when best to act on reads.

Now Starwing will read.

Something about the way you're complimenting Jungle pings me, but I think niceness should be encouraged so keep it up

Could you please answer my post to clarify some of your reads?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Agreed, that's why if you're going to use meta as a basis for your reasoning please link to specific games so I don't have to blindly sift through games hoping to see what you're talking about.

And Jungle, Can you answer my question please?, which specific games of Icon's did you look at? .

no your laziness isn't an excuse to scumread me or to say i'm wrong, if you don't have the energy to look for yourself you can ignore the meta stuff & evaluate the non-meta stuff, do you disagree with that part of my analysis?

yikes

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

hmmmmmmmmm

I like the points being made about jungle medicine

Probably going to vote there soon

the general points that others have made that you're really scummy and a reasonably safe D1 Lynch

yikes yikes

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

what the fuck am i supposed to do to prove i'm town? i'm one of the most active players in the game, i've been putting out more analysis about the game than anyone else in the game except hydras who i can't compete with because it's two fucking players in one, and i'm still scum? how the fuck do you come to this conclusion RC?

This could be legit frustration, but I could also see it as scum who feels like they're being scum read for the wrong reasons. Except I don't really think scum!JM would have cause to feel like he's being scum read for bad reasons in this case?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

WHY DON'T YOU JUST LINK THE META YOU HAVE REFERRED TO?

also yeah mate, you gotta back your shit up

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Man wtf and I thought you were town this game

How the fuck do you think that I make the posts on this page as town

=/ I'm not sure this is a reasonable expectation given his emotional response to Brass. I'm not sure what the town range would be, but I bet it's a large range.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

oh i guess maybe you could be expected to gauge his response considering you know who he is

nm on last post

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

And your analysis of his play is based on a number of assumptions that I don't think are necessarily true.

what assumptions? what's wrong with it?

i don't think an uninformed townie trying to sort between me, roster, & draco comes to the conclusions icon comes to. why is icon assuming that draco's town in this exchange? and you'd think a townie who scumreads me wouldn't immediately vote someone else for voting me without pausing a bit to engage the player?

-Assuming he's wrong, town comes to bad conclusions all the time.
-Maybe he's town reading us?
-I would not think that, especially early in a game.

i'm a wildcard after all so while scum want me mislynched they probably don't feel comfortable pushing my lynch at this point in the game, at least given my activity levels & confidence in the game. icon fits the pattern of how i'd expect scum to play around me while at the same time pushing easy lynchbait.

-This kind of speculation is prone to ego and error.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

why would icon townread you so strongly at this point in the game as to believe that you've caught both the scum "by the ballz"? yes it's possible that town icon townreads you but i'm not talking about what's possible, i'm talking about what's probable.

I don't know. I don't even know how strongly he held those reads at that point, but I also don't see why the post makes him scum.

can you find an example where you've seen a townie vote someone based on that person voting their other scumread? and even if you find an example, you're missing the point behind my analysis which is probabilities not possibilities. you're saying my analysis is bad because you can imagine possibilities where i'm wrong but that's not a counter-argument it's just how all analysis always works in mafia.

I think we see scum hunting differently, for sure. I also think that he voted roster because of the circumstances leading up to and including his vote on you, and not because he voted Icon's scum read. That wasn't a good reason because no one involved seemed to have any clue as to where the votes had actually been cast, but you're misrepresenting what happened here.

i'm talking about the probability based on my knowledge that i'm town that scum wouldn't know how to treat me given the way i'm playing this game. i think that's a fairly safe thing to say since i don't have any meta to check & i'm playing in ways that might seem scummy on the surface but have an underlying confidence behind them that tends to scare scum away from pushing a lynch too strongly. these are probabilities, not mere speculation. saying it's prone to "ego" or "error" applies to all analysis in mafia so i'm not sure why you're singling this out as special somehow.

ok

-U2 rip

[Draco Lucky]

@JM It wasn't me that misunderstood what happened. Yes, slaxx, my slot, had no idea where the votes were at the time of this exchange, but I am quite clear.

Icon voted roster here and for this reason

Spoiler:

yeah you’re right.

VOTE: Jungle

We could also just lynch scum

VOTE: rosterfoster

On the Phone so i'll make it brief:

Roster opens with RVS vote on me, later tries to get credit for 'leading the wagon' on me, only to be called out by Draco that it's prolly a bad idea to be on a wagon containing Jungle which indicates Roster should be scumreading Jungle. After this callout Roster switches votes to Jungle (being directed there by Draco instead of coming to that Obvious conclusion himself).

It gives me a feeling that Draco's got a scumteam of Jungle and Roster by the ballz (including Draco's push on Jungle re the 3 conf town he mentioned)

As it stands right now, lynching in Jungle or Roster

He's refering to this exchange between Slaxx and roster:

Spoiler:

Bit harsh. I’m the one leading your wagon.

You're not voting him

-Slaxx

The wagon he is on.

The wagon he is on.

Oh.

I wouldn't be voting anyone he is voting.

-Slaxx

yeah you’re right.

VOTE: Jungle

In the above exchange, both slaxx and roster believe that roster is voting WITH you

But you were voting for Roster, and Roster was voting for Iconeum (10)

and roster didn't realize mistake until posts 64 and 65

And Iconeum's read, as I pointed out, does not seem to indicate that he understood this mistake

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

And I don't even want to be arguing with you because you are likely town, but you're vocal and you're pushing bad cases, and it's making this game more difficult for me

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I'm not liking much of anything starwing is doing this game. And I really don't like that I can't get a clear picture of her reads after asking twice.

VOTE: starwing

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

honestly no, i don't see it
i think he was basically bullshitting a read on ico and jungle after ico called him scum based on pretty much nothing and when called out on it admitted he had nothing and threw a townread on the person interrogating him in an attempt to get the conversation to end

i'm not really vibing scum!ico rn tbh
i kinda feel like if he were scum here he'd be backing off of the jungle/roster scumreads given the amount of pushback he's been getting for it from jungle but he's kinda sticking to his guns there
also still kinda weirded out about the easy l-1 wagon on him earlier

I think your read on roster is pretty surface level, and it would make sense to me a little more if you had a strong town read on ico since a town read on ico is basically required for your read, but your read on ico doesn't seem that strong, so what's the deal?

-U2

p.edit
going for 4 in a row now. shock of all shocks

[Draco Lucky]

and you of all people talking about a policy lynch is fucking rich mate

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

You should get your head out of your damn ass and try to find scum

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I'll give you a hint - Starwing is a good vote

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I was going to stick out this one last game with you out of respect to slaxx but I'm not going to deal with another brain dead herpaderp push by the most overrated player on this site.

Were you ever good, or was it all just hype?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Go fuck yourself, RC

[Draco Lucky]

Like seriously

your play style is unwarranted braggadoccio, massive amounts of woe-is-me ate, and a childish refusal to take responsibility for your own play.

You can't admit when you're wrong, and you don't learn from your mistakes. And when you push people for awful or unexplained reasons you make the game less fun.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I mean there's policy lynching someone for what literally boils down to being good at the game and lynching someone because them being alive helps scum win condition. This is the latter, I'm just trying to play to my win condition.

Strictly business nothing personal unless you choose to make it so

Do you realize that in the 3 day phases we have played together, I have hard pushed scum all three times?

And all three times you scum read me and forced the lynch off of the scum I was pushing?

And you have the

nerve

to say that I scum-side?

Where do you get off?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I'm good for a policy lynch on Draco
If they're mafia great if not they're not going to help town anyway

Merry obviously

probably shouldn't try to spite-lynch someone if you don't want blow back

but yeah, go and take the high road.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Brass, roster and you are still town

Skitter is playing like town skitter, I think, although I'm not sure she's out of her scum range. this seems par for the course with rc pushing me for dumb or non-existent reasons, so probably town =/

Iconium is probs town in spite of your awful push on him

Gemini dunno
vedith dunno


starwing probably scum

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I'll do these one at a time so you don't have to wait all day, since you basically want me to explain the whole game

Let's start with you.

You're probably town because I don't think scum repeatedly insults a townie over their questions. Especially when the questions were meaningful and got ai-results in more than one way.

Spoiler:

So my question to you is, if RC were to let his hydra partner do the posting, would that be alignment indicative for him? If so, why and in which way?

i think this is a boring question with a boring answer and when i say 'boring' i mean not 'alignment indicative.' but if we're getting into deeper layers of analysis and really mining this tiny piece of information for all its worth:

Well, I certainly wasn't expecting this. What was your motivation for pushing him to post?

these questions are starting to get on my nerves a little because no offense it's a very boring question. do i need a reason to encourage an environment where posting is the norm? if the town don't post then the scum don't have to post & then how do we fine the scum, throw some dice?

and for having the self-awareness to know that something you're about to say is scummy, but saying it anyway

Spoiler:

why luna? i don't think she's done much ai really. or at least she hasn't really posted anything i can read

thanks for asking this i've been looking forward to getting the question because it's one of those reads that's going to make everyone think i'm batshit. i don't think minimalist posters like luna tend to read excessively-analytical spoilers like mine that closely as scum nor do i think they'd respond with luna's understated approval plus a mixed tone of surprise & skepticism. it shows that she's reading quite closely & responding with natural emotions.

and for your push on Icon, tbh. I'm not saying it's too scum to be scum, but I am saying that I think scum would have probably thought twice before making the argument that icon saying "really" was scum-indicative. Like, scum might make that push, but only if they can't think of something better, ya? And the second half of your case, while relying on bad assumptions, was better than him using the word "really" twice in a sentence.

I can go on, if you'd like

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

p.edit sure, I'll do Ico next

Brass feels like the brassherald I've played with before. He's a little bit jokey, a little bit quick to anger.

His push on you over meta is a good example, so is his early exchange with vedith. None of that frustration felt fake.

having just read his iso again, I'm not sure there is anything outside of the little I understand of his town-meta?

I like the way he's made the pushes, I like the L-1 on starwing

I really like the reasoning for the unvote in 501

Why should I be scum reading any of this?

[Draco Lucky]

-You and I have already discussed 210 so you already know my thoughts on that.

-No one pushed back against you starting an Ico wagon late in the week when Ico had already announced a V/LA over the weekend, which feels like a town-tell. If I were scum with Ico, I would have laid into you for trying to pressure a V/LA

-His progression on you seems super genuine, even if I don't think it's correct

-His light push on RC is ballsy if not town, or at least scum with RC

- I love his push on Starwing

This is townie for a similar reason to why I called you townie. It feels like an honest answer, and it's the right answer from a town perspective, but it had to feel scummy to type out, you know? Town is more likely to be knowingly scummy when it's the truth than town is to fake it, I think.

I'm comfortable lynching in either of them right now, but it's D1 i'm not willing to put my own slot on the line for being wrong

There was another post that I thought just bled town when I was last looking into him, but I can't find it now.

Am I 100% confident on this slot? No, of course not. But I also kind of just don't want you to be right for the wrong reasons.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

full disclosure, you have about 30 minutes left with me before I have to go out and about for a few hours

whatcha wanna discuss next, boyo? should I go through another slot?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Town is more likely to be knowingly scummy when it's the truth than town is to fake it, I think.

Town is more likely to be knowingly scummy when it's the truth than scum** is to fake it, I think.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

the question isn't why you aren't scumreading, the question is why you're townreading it? is there anything outside his scum meta here?

I do think the emotion would be hard to fake yes. The ups and down felt right as rain. Do you disagree?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

But I also kind of just don't want you to be right for the wrong reasons.

this doesn't make sense why wouldn't you want me to be right? and who are you to say my reasons are wrong if icon's scum? do you have some sort of perfect meta knowledge on what makes icon scum in his games?

a stopped clock is right twice a day, but that doesn't mean looking at it is a good method of reading the time. Just because you look at it at 2:00 p.m. and it happens to be stuck at 2:00 p.m. isn't cause for celebration. The assumptions underlying your push were bad assumptions for your average player, and probably for Ico. And no, of course I don't have perfect meta on Ico. =/

Also, I've been low key irked ever since you called me boring twice, which is the real reason I made that statement, and I shouldn't have said it. sorry, mate. let's move past it, yea?

-U2

p.edit who knows mate, you'll have to ask him

[Draco Lucky]

What's next? walking out the door in 10

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

i'll be back around 6:30 p.m. cst if you've got more qustions.

but go take a look at starwing, yea? Maybe tell me why you think they're town? Because I would be super happy w/ that lynch today

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

are you communicating with slaxx about the game at all or you playing this game solo?

We've talked very little and intermittently about the game. i gotta go

[Draco Lucky]

i'll be back around 6:30 p.m. cst if you've got more qustions.

but go take a look at starwing, yea? Maybe tell me why you think they're town? Because I would be super happy w/ that lynch today

-U2

@JM hey, man, I dutifully answered your interrogation

can i get some engagement on this?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I don't want to have defined reads at this point in the game

I think JM me you vedith brass are bad lynches today

a little bit ago you excluded starwing from your list of bad lynches.

what changed?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

wait, hold on, that was skitter posting?

Could you please point out which posts were skitter's starting with 614 up until now?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

In 623, your slot, saying "I think" gave a list of slots that are bad lynches.

In 629 you, RC, implied that those were skitter's reads, but it doesn't read to me like skitter, it reads to me like RC.

So since you're not signing your posts, I'd like you to clarify who was making which posts.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

If those are your reads, then I don't understand what you were trying to convey with 629. Could you please ELI5 it for me?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Why is it when I have caught scum everyone wants to go after lynchbait and when I haven't everyone is looking at me to lead then powerlynches me if I lead wrong?

I feel like you're leading on me right now, which would put us in the first half of this statement, and imply that Starwing is lynchbait.

Is that not what you meant?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

- I love his push on Starwing

I like the way he's made the pushes, I like the L-1 on starwing

do you usually townread people who push the same people as you?
or, probably more accurately, do you usually townread people *for* pushing the same people as you?

Yes, I often town read people who push the same people as me.
No, I don't really town read people *for* pushing the same people as me.

I think Ico's push on Starwing is townie, and it doesn't hurt that Starwing is also where I'm looking to lynch
And Brass, it was how he was pressuring JM more so than any push on starwing that I referring to iirc. I also thought the L-1 was good. "bad", l-1 declaration in the second post, "boyos" which is a word I use when I'm being cocky in my solve, whole thing read right tonally.


I'm fucking exhausted, but I'll be around tomorrow

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

My weekend got super busy - great time tho. I'm in bed rn with the meat sweats after making a ribeye roast so good omg

I was joking, but I forgot I had made the joke. So then I couldn't tell that Vedith was responding to my joke that I didn't remember I'd made. So confuse. Tired.

seems like ya'll were productive. I think vedith plays around pretty easily as either alignment. starwing forgetting the joke and calling it a scum slip thing is odd but I've mixed up entire slots before so could be a mistake from either alignment. This isn't why starwing is scum. I think this does flip red and that scum right now is playing a waiting game, either in the hope of the wagon falling apart or to push off it later.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Roster was a town read because of his progression early in the game on a I think it was JM and Ico scum team and there was something else that I really liked from him

I just finished work. Let me grab a beer and catch up and I'll look back and find the progression i'm talking about and see if I can't remember what the other thing was

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

draco lucky is the Wutang clan generator name for some combination of slaxx and my name

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Okay, yeah it was this progression on Ico and JM that I thought was townie. It's not great analysis, but I don't think it's scummy. I think you can see spontaneous read, a read that isn't being embellished even when it's questioned.

The rest of the convo with brass was the second bit I liked. The whole I'm not going to fight you because you're town thing rings townie to me. The apology for not having more in lieu of making literally anything up seems more likely from town than from scum. This is where my read came from

Spoiler:

Iconeum scum reads both me and Jungle (equally?) but tries to push for my lynch when there's a hefty wagon on Jungle.

They're buddies.

Iconeum scum reads both me and Jungle (equally?) but tries to push for my lynch when there's a hefty wagon on Jungle.

They're buddies.

Please explain either your read on Jungle or Inconeum.

I didn't really until that post, which I just explained.

Also I know you wont believe me but I was literally going to vote Jungle before I got Ninja'd by the post from Draco. I slightly changed the content to make it fit the convo.

So, your case is that iconeum is scum for protecting Jungle and Jungle is scum because he's being protected by Iconeum?

He's trying to start a counterwagon to stop the buddy from being lynched (scum getting lynched D1 would be tough in this game I think), while still scumreading the buddy so that if the buddy flips he stays kind of town.

Okay, let's say we flip one of them, and they end up town. Is there still a reason to scum read the other?

Nope.

I don't like that you have no real reads.

I am pretty happy with that vote.

I find it really hard to get anything from discussions about meta when I don’t really know the meta of the people involved.

Sorry.

I don't like that you have no real reads.

I am pretty happy with that vote.

At least no real reads on your scum team that you are claiming.

And the worst part is your town, so I’m not going to fight you.

Pedit: If I had substance I would say it. But I don’t.

I find it really hard to get anything from discussions about meta when I don’t really know the meta of the people involved.

Sorry.

The talk has not been entirely about meta, though. And even if it was, you should be able to form some opinion from the talk, imo.

It seemed that way to me.

And I probably should be able to. Just I can’t.

I'm pondering on his last few days rn watch this space

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

What's wrong with pondering lol.

Here's where I'm at.

Rooster's read on vedith doesn't make sense to me. It sounds like "I town read him twice before for bad reasons and it worked so I'm going for three straight" It doesn't seem like a great way to sort Vedith, imo, but I gotta assume it's a real thing because unless it's vedith + roster, vedith would probably call him out on it.

@roster Was one of the games Gators? Because I don't remember you doing this in Gators.

And then I'm also not sure what I think about roster presenting as frustrated that vedith won't engage with him and then going directly into a defense of that same play as a reason to town read vedith. Part of me wants to call it a fake for being awkward, and part of me can't figure out why scum!roster would fake it.

so yeah, I'm pondering on it

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

@starwing what do you think about Roster transitioning from frustration to pushing his vedith town read there?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Actually, above post @anyone who wants in on this

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

@Vedith Can you talk to me about either your alacrity or Starwing scum reads?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I don't think I could see myself voting roster today. My early reads are usually my better reads, I think

I guess if the eod wagons are me vs roster but let's not do that please =P

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

And I take it you're not into talking about your town reads on either alacrity or starwing then?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

and alacrity?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

tomorrow going to be another hectic work day so probably not around til evening central time again

We need to start moving votes one way or another. I'd prefer starwing, gemini, or vedith.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

What has my slot in your preferred pool?

me not town reading you and my preferred lynch stalling at 3 votes for days

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

VOTE: Vedith

let's try this

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

people voting roster and starwing

ya'll wanna give your thoughts on a vedith lynch?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

skitter please vote vedith. I don't want to vote roster. I will if it's that or no lynch but like i really think this is more likely to flip red

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

could you just not please

[Draco Lucky]

I don't have the bandwidth between tonight and tomorrow to get into a long back and forth with you

[Draco Lucky]

and if you're town i think you're probably 0/2 on your scum reads atm

all 3 -U2 oops

[Draco Lucky]

I've already said I'll vote there to avoid a no lynch but just in general if you could stop threatening to push me if I don't vote a certain way that would be great. It's lost you two games in a row with me now

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I'm sure somehow I'll be to blame for you misreading me here, too.

I'm going to bed. I'll check in again before eod, but no promises that I'll have time to do much more than cast a hammer vote

If someone actually hammers me before I get a chance to check in, lynch M+P or Starwing/Vedith. Pretty sure at minimum 1 scum there. please don't tho

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

i'll cry no tears if you get lynched because you refuse to vote scum.

skitter please vote vedith. I don't want to vote roster. I will if it's that or no lynch but like i really think this is more likely to flip red

-U2

i'll cry no tears if you get lynched because you refuse to vote scum.

I've already said I'll vote there to avoid a no lynch but just in general if you could stop threatening to push me if I don't vote a certain way that would be great. It's lost you two games in a row with me now

-U2

i'll cry no tears if you get lynched because you refuse to vote scum.

I'm going to bed. I'll check in again before eod, but no promises that I'll have time to do much more than cast a hammer vote

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

welp sorry i wasn't around more last few days

Gemini, I get that you're upset, but I'd appreciate it if you would give some reads/thoughts =)

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

3 pages, nice

reading now =P

[Draco Lucky]

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

if the choice were really vedith or JM I'd probably vote Vedith rn

both of you should probably just actually claim at some point pretty quick here

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

i think alacrity is probably town

I think you're probably town

Vedith most likely last scum i think

I do think if the two of you are going to gladiate with soft claims, you should probably both just claim for real

[Draco Lucky]

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

=/

[Draco Lucky]

Nice, New, Jungle.

You have studied the Radiant one much to understand that about him. Have you played Mafia elsewhere? Have you studied me?

I also still find this post extremely towny & even more so after RC's flip.

Why is this towny?

Why are their reactions with M+P unlikely to come from SvS?

Why is Gemini town?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

@Vedith, how do you go from 879 then voting Draco lucky? I could see something that would have sparked that but you never mentioned it or anything so I'm curious.

I have thoughts on this but will wait for vedith's response

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

How was that post chomping at the bit, exactly? This isn't a real thought =/

And yeah, i think everyone should claim

Watcher, targeted JM last night and saw alacrity visit him

JM surviving clears both of them

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

okay, well jm is not cleared, but very likely town because alacrity hasn't announced any sort of red check there

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Vedith was gambiting \o/

yeah but as scum. the whole thing feels contrived

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

and I don't know enough about setup spec to comment on what scum could/couldn't have. The setup having one or more vengeful roles means this setup is likely to only have two night phases before lylo, which mitigates 'the value of all pr roles

so I wouldn't be too surprised if this game has a lot of power on town's side regardless of what scum got

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

and I don't know enough about setup spec

Is there a reason why you're quoting this?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I don't understand this giving up by scum!vedith

I don't think I want to lynch there after all, so if you have a mechanical reason why it has to be me or him, you should give it, JM

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

you or starwing

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Give me a day or two and I'll make time to dig into this game. I need to look at associations between vedith/starwing/gem and m+p, and reread the game from the start if I can swing it.

I know this hasn't been my strongest performance, esp. later half of day 1 through now, and I'm sorry for that. The game seems pretty stagnant overall even with the claims, etc, and I'll commit to doing my part to rectify that. If the rest of town could do the same and dig in over the next week, that would be great. Just sayin, I really don't want to lose this game to RC =P

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Today was long and I've got a headache. Please give me 24 hours before lynching vedith. It's not like we don't have time, and I really don't have the energy to work through this game tonight

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Thought I'd look at M+P/Vedith interactions first to confirm my gut town read.

Didn't work out that way. If vedith is scum, it looks to me like Skitter was positioning a light scum read on vedith while RC gives him only light attention before declaring that vedith would not be the d1 lynch.

Their most significant interaction is jumping on the starwing wagon:

Spoiler:

VOTE: starwing beauvoi

i'll vote here, if skitter really doesn't want it we can vote vedith again.

VOTE: Vedith

changed our minds

I appreciate the discussion of me. \o/

Where's my vote right now?

JM's 291 reads super scummy to me. I don't want to accidentally hammer if votes are there though so I'm still not going to stop bitching about needing a vote count

VOTE: Starwing

284 Bad

L-1, boyos

Intent.
Give that claim. \o/

UNVOTE:

-Slaxx

I’ll catch up with this tonight.

Ew

Ew

Don’t you ew me. I shoved this game down my priority list, I want to have input before the lynch. Sorry.

No you just stopped any pressure on that spot.
A red flip means I lynch you. \o/

Keeping in mind that {starwing, Draco} is confirmed not a thing, this looks like vedith trying to push through an early lynch.

His basically dropping out of the game for a solid portion of d1 soon after this while RC kept up the power!scum routine seems reasonable if svs as well.

Gonna take a few min break and then go through gemini/M+P

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Oh, I meant to say, it makes sense to me that vedith, who is around between RC's vote and Brass' vote, waits to see if anyone else is willing to get on board before committing to the wagon if he is scum with M+P

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

This is a long series of posts, but I think it's necessary for context, and they're quick reads so I hope you'll look at it. This also looks to me like an svs interaction, and I'm realizing that RC is probably pretty good at setting up red herrings. =/

Spoiler:

Hi Gemini how are you?

Thoughts on the Draco/JM spat?

Hi Gemini how are you?

Thoughts on the Draco/JM spat?

Hello, Finally caught up on things, been busier than I expected.

On the surface it screams bs overall. Draco Lucky saying that Vedith is town for keeping promises really isn't a good enough reason. I can see why JM would think that's sketchy, odd that they think they're so sure because of it without at least some bg playing experience/meta with them but the issue I have is..JM said that Draco Lucky couldn't be trusted all the while voting for Rooster Fooster at the time..... (page 2) then What even is 75? The change of thought/flip/back tracking comes across as sketchy. Null on Jungle Medicine, tentative town-ish lean on Draco Lucky.

i'm really, really sorry gemini.

VOTE: geminitwin12

oh i didn't know you were still around.

I voted gemini.

i'm really, really sorry gemini.

Don't say thing you don't mean. Can't say that I'm surprised this is happening, especially from you. Why are you voting me exactly?

Hi Gemini how are you?

Thoughts on the Draco/JM spat?

Hello, Finally caught up on things, been busier than I expected.

On the surface it screams bs overall. Draco Lucky saying that Vedith is town for keeping promises really isn't a good enough reason. I can see why JM would think that's sketchy, odd that they think they're so sure because of it without at least some bg playing experience/meta with them but the issue I have is..JM said that Draco Lucky couldn't be trusted all the while voting for Rooster Fooster at the time..... (page 2) then What even is 75? The change of thought/flip/back tracking comes across as sketchy. Null on Jungle Medicine, tentative town-ish lean on Draco Lucky.

the conclusions of this post dont' match the rest of it

If you're town, why wouldn't you be surprised that I'm voting you?

-Merry

If you're town, why wouldn't you be surprised that I'm voting you?

-Merry

Are we really going to do *this* right now? I came in really late to the game, made one post that wasn't cohesive and detailed enough (basically just stated) so It's easy for you and now JM to just jump on the wagon and vote me.

If you're town, why wouldn't you be surprised that I'm voting you?

-Merry

Are we really going to do *this* right now? I came in really late to the game, made one post that wasn't cohesive and detailed enough (basically just stated) so It's easy for you and now JM to just jump on the wagon and vote me.

Ok. Do you want us to unvote and give you more time to do stuff?

If you're town, why wouldn't you be surprised that I'm voting you?

-Merry

Are we really going to do *this* right now? I came in really late to the game, made one post that wasn't cohesive and detailed enough (basically just stated) so It's easy for you and now JM to just jump on the wagon and vote me.

Ok. Do you want us to unvote and give you more time to do stuff?

Yeah, you should because I'm actually town and it would be fucked up and unfair overall to go out like this considering.

basically i'm assuming that you're claiming masons with beauvoi. if that's not the case you should out that because i think that they're scummy and i'd instalynch you after their scumflip.

Yeah, you should because I'm actually town and it would be fucked up and unfair overall to go out like this considering.

ok.

UNVOTE:

if it helps I think this is a pretty towny reaction.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

More ai content but that requires more talking so it's an interconnected issue atm.

I'm waiting to hear more of what star. Has to say.

And why exactly are you voting icon, Jungle? I'm Sorry if I missed it if you already explained it.

this bit is pinging me as town

This is a skitter read - her first read on Gemini - and it's super lazy. I think it's clear from the rest of the game that skitter was putting in a lot of effort as scum here, so maybe this is indicative

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Gem's town, U2. That's beyond debate.

I must have missed your claim, then

why is it beyond debate?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

@Draco Lucky, U2, for the sake of things I'm going to ask this: How exactly is that a S v S interaction with M+P and myself exactly?

Because what you showed shows more so to M+P's manipulation and empty game reads and slight pocketing, especially with the whole "You're a Gem" and "thank you Gem" after I voted Roster, like I said earlier, I didn't see what they were doing until it was too late.

It looks svs to me because from his perspective you were coming in late, so you were going to receive some pressure. he puts pressure on you first, allowing him to take it off of you, and then you're past that initial press and less likely to be a focal point for a little bit

I agree that it doesn't have to be svs - it could just be vedith - I'm just doing my due diligence.

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Gem's town, U2. That's beyond debate.

I must have missed your claim, then

why is it beyond debate?

-U2

You missed a few things yeah.

What did I miss

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Yeah, again this says more so about M+P's scum game/actions and not mine because I agree that it's a lazy read. I was genuinely asking questions and I don't see the scum motivations with what I said.

It was skitter who bolded that line. She wasn't town reading you for the questions. It was for saying that people need to talk more? I probed skitter a bunch because I wanted to see how willing she would be to interact 1v1 and engage on reads, and she was putting thought into a number of slots

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

They also held a number of contradictory reads, but with you they both got to a town read pretty early

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

i kinda like gemini actually

another instance of skitter being lazy wrt gemini's slot. I'd give context, but there is none

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Although, RC's push on you early feels similar to RC's push onto JM on page 17/18. pretty much follows the same script

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Are you going to case JM and Ankamius as well?

I was going to do starwing next. I'd like to see claims from JM and Ank

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Again, that says more so about THEM and not me.

Like, I hear you and I am aware of that world. I don't understand why it is a problem for me to explore both possibilities

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Are you going to case JM and Ankamius as well?

I was going to do starwing next. I'd like to see claims from JM and Ank

-U2

What's the likely hood to you of one of them being scum and why? (talking about JM + Ank)

Ank is conf!town because I saw them visit JM

Earlier I think I maybe overestimated the chance that ank visiting JM cleared JM, which is why i think claims would be good, but I'm pretty sure the guy is town by play anyway. I guess I owe him another look, too, you're right. Do you think JM is scum?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I just don't understand what we gain the day before lylo by not having all the puzzle pieces out in the open

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

u2

if you believe I am conftown

then what's the problem with me not claiming

It would be easier to incorporate setup spec, it would allow me to evaluate your comment that JM is most likely town for myself

It's not about confirming your alignment. And between the two of us - three if jm is real - there are a bunch of prs scum can't kill so im not sure what all we lose?

Like, im not going to die on this hill but I think the correct play is a mass claim here

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I think I'm done doing back reading for the night - I'll jump into starwing tomorrow

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

i don't particularly like this post; it's a whole lot of hedging

like the second paragraph where she goes over rvs is a lot of iioa - it's more a summary of what happened than anything else; she doesn't actually form a read on what happened there

like there's a lot of words and statements and thoughts but not that many stances or opinons. like i know what she thinks about a lot of the players and what they said but not what she thinks about their *alignments* really besides for like a townread on me (but rc might be scum pocketing jm!) and maybe on brass and draco.
and after all of that she just unvotes and doesn't really seem to have a scurmead or anything

I think this post by skitter pretty much clears starwing? esp. given the game state at the time

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

starwing i can't really read tbh, and i feel like she's probably one of those players that i'm not going to read directly, but rather indirectly through how the gamestate is forming around her. the wagon itself is kinda meh and the fact that it's been stalled at three votes for a while now makes me a little suspicious; in a game this size it's pretty easy to drive a wagon up to l-1 so tbh i'm kinda surprised that more votes haven't really ended up on her. if she's town she's def lynchbait so i feel like she'd be pushed harder here but the wagon is kinda just ... not growing which is kinda weird and loosely points to scum!starwing imo

eh, maybe not. I forgot that skitter turned on this read

There's actually not all that much between them for most of the game
-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Yeah, it's a pretty cutting scum read to give on a partner. but I don't think M+P was pushing your lynch as hard as JM was saying earlier as a reason to clear you. It's like a vote and this post and then the read reverses later in the day.

the second is the turn around of their read on you. After that point you are hard town to m+p, and im pretty sure that read lasted through the end of d1.

But I'm also didn't get the same scum read on you while reading you & M+P that I had earlier, so

Game is hard, lol
-U2

[Draco Lucky]

i don't understand why people think a claim is bad today. I would really like claims locked in before lylo. I don't mind somebody doing the reveal thing and i think star's plan for it seems fine

I vote JM for that

but I don't understand why everyone, save maybe ank, doesn't just claim rn

[Draco Lucky]

Playing DnD for the first time in 10 years all day today which i need to get ready for. tomorrow this game will get my full attention. I am not the lynch today, and vedith makes no sense in a game where JM and Gem are both claiming pr

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

okay day ended up being busier than I expected. Give me like a half hour and I'll throw some time in

[Draco Lucky]

Just spent the last 20 min trying to speculate on whether 5 town pr is realistic for this game but I can't figure out if the venge mechanic and the lost day phase that results makes that more or less likely, plus I was trying to compare power levels to the setups in the newbie grid and that's obviously a terrible way of going about it.

Is there anyone who could give some thoughts on this?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Actually, nm I don't need the setup spec, I figured it out. There aren't that many town pr

Ank is conf!town

Vedith I don't think is scum here. If I'm lynched today, he's as fucked as says I'll be after his lynch, so he's town.

Starwing is conf!town because Gemini is claiming they are conf!town, making it true regardless of gemini's alignment

which means scum is in {gemini, JM} and one of them is fake

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

And like, this illustrates exactly why people should be claiming the day before lylo

[Draco Lucky]

so that I'm not sitting here trying to figure out whether Gemini's jailkeeper soft or JM's soft is more realistic

[Draco Lucky]

and I really dislike making self-defense posts, but speaking of claims, how I am I not just conf!town in the same way ank is? do you think I guessed their target?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

i'm sorry to break this to you draco but my reaction wasn't scummy at all it was the natural reactions of a townie, please take a closer look & memorize so that next time you don't mistake it

ok jungle let's make a deal

you stop being an obnoxious fuck and I make sure you don't get lynched today

deal?

Your iso makes me want to stab someone

Knowing that RC and JM have some sort of relationship but not knowing JM's main makes this hard to analyze but generally speaking I don't think scum!RC makes this comment early in the game to town? It's not good play to insult someone as either alignment (rip me) but it seems more counter-productive for scum

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

i'm not one to enjoy town casing myself but since you request it draco here you go:

Spoiler:

VOTE: Iconeum

towny vote because it helps build a wagon and move the game outside of boring stages.

VOTE: rosterfoster

towny vote because catching the scum or at least putting pressure on someone who seems ready to lurk it out with some boring posts instead of helping catch the scum.

i welcome all sheeps to join me in lynching the scum. better to follow me than this slaxx guy. he townread the vedith too quick, he cannot be trusted.

towny confidence & lack of nervousness in calling things how they i see them, specifically in terms of your quick townread on vedith & the implications it has about your alignment. i'm saying a lot about the game & doing it in ways that aren't easy for scum to fake.

no I am the one leading your death, chicken scum.

again that towny confidence & lack of nervousness in pushing chicken, trying to break nerves & maybe get some more information for us to work with. these aren't posts i make as scum or at least i don't think i'd make them & if I saw someone else making them i'd townread them for it.

there's exactly three obvtown players so far, who are they?

and so i thought i was very obvtown at this point but maybe i'm mistaken & overstated the case, it's hard to tell but relative the vedith guy you called "conftown" i thought myself quite towny at this point.

You know, knowing that you're not a new player, I think I hate this post.

[Draco Lucky]

insulting me plus leaving the town tells to skitter plus backing off doesn't seem like things you'd do as scum? and no you're wrong to think that i'd be looking to read based on both not just one and on that note don't get too comfortable yet because i'm looking to see town skitter confirm the read in her postings.

Oh I see me and past you agree that scum!RC was unlikely to insult town!you like that

[Draco Lucky]

why luna? i don't think she's done much ai really. or at least she hasn't really posted anything i can read

thanks for asking this i've been looking forward to getting the question because it's one of those reads that's going to make everyone think i'm batshit. i don't think minimalist posters like luna tend to read excessively-analytical spoilers like mine that closely as scum nor do i think they'd respond with luna's understated approval plus a mixed tone of surprise & skepticism. it shows that she's reading quite closely & responding with natural emotions.

This pings me for the same reason. It's based on a ton of assumptions about how people might or might not act that people stop making after their first few games

and the interaction is like campy svs lol i love it

I think I'm calling my shot here

@Ank Why do you town read JM?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Conditionally to draco is live what time myself returned, our must kill himself

I've read this 5 times now and have no idea what you're talking about


Everyone needs to claim, ank. The lack of claims is making this harder than it needs to be. Just do it already

[Draco Lucky]

JM is the last scum. Where is he?

[Draco Lucky]

so you're claiming town loyal neighborizer?

I don't understand the gemini can't kill bit tho?

[Draco Lucky]

could you please just claim

[Draco Lucky]

I like it

first part has issues with the venges

second has issues probably with gems role

but you neighborizing jm doesnt make him town

[Draco Lucky]

wait tho how does that even make sense you targeting two people at once?

[Draco Lucky]

is that even a thing?

[Draco Lucky]

Why did you let me call you cleared for so long?

[Draco Lucky]

I'm not sure what this changes other than that I understand the scum reads on me now lol

Ank clears Gem
Gem still clears Starwing


Ank is no longer conf!town but first instinct is I like the claim. Won't have time to do an iso til tonight
Vedith still feels town

If you're town I think you neighborized scum

[Draco Lucky]

I need to reread ank, so I'm not doing anything until later tonight. why rush?

[Draco Lucky]

I'm not going to get to ank tonight

Gemini - with all the different ways that the roles in this game can interact to create false results, how sure can we be that your result can be trusted?

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I think at least one of ank's abilities could create a false positive because venge, watcher can get false positives since multitasking, rc was a bus driver

there are a bunch of night actions that can get misleading results in this setup. could your result be misleading?

[Draco Lucky]

assuming that gemini isn't both stubborn and wrong about her result, I can't see a way to lose this game

VOTE: JM

[Draco Lucky]

I can absolutely fault you for not claiming like I don't know why this is such a fight when it's so obviously the right move

[Draco Lucky]

Lets gogogo

I think this is for the win right here

[Draco Lucky]

If it's not gg tomorrow there will be a guilty on vedith, so I don't see how we lose

[Draco Lucky]

In that situation, Gemini and maybe even I would have a guilty on Vedith going into tomorrow

[Draco Lucky]

Scum is ank. I watched gem last night, and her claiming I can kill is a nice confirm

I'm going out for lunch w/ people and will deal with this later.

[Draco Lucky]

no because I saw the night action pm first

lunch turned into drink all day this will have to wait til tomorrow

[Draco Lucky]

eventful game

Ansy to see if you can pull this off? =P

Here's the plan:

First I'm going to go back through ank's iso and see what is scum-indicative in retrospect

Then I'm going to make the case for why I'm town. I don't normally do this, but I think in this game it's going to be necessary.

Vedith, I'm a bit worried that you've already made up your mind and this is for nothing, so I hope that's not true.

[Draco Lucky]

My understanding of Ank's town play, as described by Ank is that she tries to manipulate the game state in such a manner that her town reads find their way to the scum reads that ank thinks are correct

This was not the style we got this game. D1, she posted one read list and a couple of questions and then made this "oopsy" post at the start of day 2 which pings me in retrospect.

Spoiler:

I am caught up!

Merry Pippin is town! I believe the Pippin head has been quite transparently town, and I do not believe the Merry head has been playing to a scum agenda so far.

Jingle Medicine is town! I do not have too many thoughts on this slot, but some specific posts have given me a strong basis for a townread. I also believe that there is enough background focus on that slot for scum looking to work around them to be a viable strategy.
Draco Lucky is probably town! I believe the way both heads entered the game is more likely to be from a town mindset, and I have not seen an issue with their content that would indicate they are pushing an agenda so far.
Vedith is probably town! His tone is believable, and I do not think that scum would have blatantly lighthearted content like this for so long in the game!

Iconeum is somewhat town! This read is shaky, but I thought that the way he handled the rosterfoster case showed he believed in it. I also believe that the wagon on him was interestingly fast, although that admittedly does not change my read around very much.

StarwingBeauvoi is the slot I am least sure about! I do not have a townread nor a scumread on them.

GeminiTwin12 is somewhat scum! The only things I have gotten reads out of for this slot is from a couple of posts, mostly the tone.

rosterfoster is probably scum! I admit, the scumread mostly comes from his hop onto the Iconeum wagon. However, that vote was strange enough that I find it hard to believe it was natural.

VOTE: rosterfoster

I am quite embarrassed! =(

[Draco Lucky]

Her instinct during D2 is again very passive. Ank fence sits on her reads, and makes no moves to push the game in the direction they prefer.

Spoiler:

idk

scum having a watcher and a bus driver sounds a bit ridiculous unless they maybe don't have multitasking while they're both alive(?)

idk

this setup is bonkers enough that it could be a thing

I just don't think both can be used the same night if it's an actual thing

My brain is saying we should keep draco alive but my heart says he's just the most likely scum here

It's anukets skitter all over again

VOTE: Vedith

Sure, this is fine

Draco on jungle please

[Draco Lucky]

This absolutely contradicts ank's later claim. I wish I had seen it sooner.

Spoiler:

Gemini

Do you have a roleblock available tonight?

The game is literally solved if you do.

If you have the ability to block, block whichever of draco and vedith we don't lynch

Jungle will be investigating me and I will be targeting you.

I don't think this ever loses as long as Starwing is confirmed to not have killed last night

[Draco Lucky]

That essentially is it

I can see if someone can kill
I can see if someone can stop night actions and strongwilled neighborize them

first was on Gemini
Second was on Jungle

Both were negative results and Jungle joined my neighborhood

At first I thought this was a likely town role because of the strangeness of the double investigative, but it always had to be scum.

Think about the possible setups

Jailkeeper
Watcher
traffic guru with venge kill
neighborizer + kill check (supposedly)
Bus driver

Scum has two prs and one of them bus, driver, is strong, but countered by confirmed!town traffic guru and jailkeeper. The neighborizor ction is confirmable and nothing about the role makes it red checkable by any of the other roles, so there is a good balance. One role can be countered pretty heavily but is strong. The other can't be countered, but is weaker. The utility is entirely based in the ability of the scum to use the neighborize to their benefit.

Consider if ank is town

Jailkeeper + traffic guru with venge + neighborizer that can check for the ability to roleblock + a check on the ability to kill vs watcher and bus driver

How does this make sense? The bus driver would not only be countered by the traffic guru and jailkeeper but also by both investigative actions from ank's slot, and the scum!watcher would be checkable by ank's slot, and the jail keeper's slot. The watcher ability, if it got a result, would have a 1/3 chance of pushing scum to lynch the venge slot (bad for scum), while a false positive from town!ank would also result in the free venge for town. It's simply too much town power + the ability for prs to confirm one another

This game is clearly more balanced with town watcher rather than town whatever ank is claiming.