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In post 494, Jungle Medicine wrote:why would icon townread you so strongly at this point in the game as to believe that you've caught both the scum "by the ballz"? yes it's possible that town icon townreads you but i'm not talking about what's possible, i'm talking about what's probable.
I don't know. I don't even know how strongly he held those reads at that point, but I also don't see why the post makes him scum.
In post 494, Jungle Medicine wrote:can you find an example where you've seen a townie vote someone based on that person voting their other scumread? and even if you find an example, you're missing the point behind my analysis which is probabilities not possibilities. you're saying my analysis is bad because you can imagine possibilities where i'm wrong but that's not a counter-argument it's just how all analysis always works in mafia.
I think we see scum hunting differently, for sure. I also think that he voted roster because of the circumstances leading up to and including his vote on you, and not because he voted Icon's scum read. That wasn't a good reason because no one involved seemed to have any clue as to where the votes had actually been cast, but you're misrepresenting what happened here.
In post 494, Jungle Medicine wrote:i'm talking about the probability based on my knowledge that i'm town that scum wouldn't know how to treat me given the way i'm playing this game. i think that's a fairly safe thing to say since i don't have any meta to check & i'm playing in ways that might seem scummy on the surface but have an underlying confidence behind them that tends to scare scum away from pushing a lynch too strongly. these are probabilities, not mere speculation. saying it's prone to "ego" or "error" applies to all analysis in mafia so i'm not sure why you're singling this out as special somehow.
town has the ability to be town's first mislynch and take away the only other mislynch town has.
and (U2?) is saying that the venge-shot is not anti-town.
how is it anti-town?
It takes away a lynch from town, sure, but it also takes a kill away from scum. And it replaces those two with a kill by town free of scum interference.
In post 1272, Ankamius wrote:you can say I pocketed jungle all you like, the sudden switch on Gemini is still evidence that I claimed an innocent result on Gemini early on in the day, and the way we both played after that is pretty significant proof that we were working together mechanically at that point.
this is strong evidence that my role is genuine. I've also already shown that my role is much more elegant for town to have than the watcher.
Like, you're asking for town credit for claiming early, which is super disingenuous in a game where I'm the one who claimed early and then had to push for a mass claim
a mass claim that would have been super helpful to have earlier in the day.
All this is really evidence of is that you had JM pocketed.
I wanted to sort all three slots by pushing you to kill the fake cop lol
lol. I think my point - that the venge is pro-town and that scum needs your ability to counter that - is clear
I don't have the energy to do it tonight, but I tomorrow I want to go through my own iso and spoon feed why I'm town. It's the kind of thing some other town should have done on my behalf before now, but in their absence =/
In post 1386, Vedith wrote:I think I need to trust my original read going into today as Draco scum.
The last several LyLo/MyLo lost I have swapped who I thought was scum originally.
But I'll see what Starwing or the replace says
I'm generally a fan of giving credit to early reads but in this specific instance that would be a mistake.
I know you said that you can't remember why you scum read me, but it's going to make it really difficult for me to help you to get past that read
From what I get from you, you don't want to talk setup spec. Can I at least get you to take a glance at my one and only scum game so that you have a sense of what a leap I would have to be making for this to be my scum game?
actually nothing to suggest when jungle was willing to vote draco as well
I could've swung gemini over
it was already a done deal.
I mean, it wasn't a done deal for exactly the same reason it's not a done deal that you can get me mislynched today, which is that I hate being mislynched and I don't give up easily
If you guy's are already predisposed to scum read me, as indicated by you asking me to flip my role, then flipping my role isn't going to change that. Only hope is that you'll ask starwing to do it and that there is something there they haven't talked about
