micro 858: silver 3 (ended game)

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #1250 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:45 am

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1249, Ankamius wrote:eventful game
Ansy to see if you can pull this off? =P

Here's the plan:

First I'm going to go back through ank's iso and see what is scum-indicative in retrospect

Then I'm going to make the case for why I'm town. I don't normally do this, but I think in this game it's going to be necessary.

Vedith, I'm a bit worried that you've already made up your mind and this is for nothing, so I hope that's not true.
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Post Post #1251 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:52 am

Post by Draco Lucky »

My understanding of Ank's town play, as described by Ank is that she tries to manipulate the game state in such a manner that her town reads find their way to the scum reads that ank thinks are correct

This was not the style we got this game. D1, she posted one read list and a couple of questions and then made this "oopsy" post at the start of day 2 which pings me in retrospect.

Spoiler:
In post 858, Alacrity wrote:
In post 639, Alacrity wrote:I am caught up!

Merry Pippin is town! I believe the Pippin head has been quite transparently town, and I do not believe the Merry head has been playing to a scum agenda so far.

Jingle Medicine is town! I do not have too many thoughts on this slot, but some specific posts have given me a strong basis for a townread. I also believe that there is enough background focus on that slot for scum looking to work around them to be a viable strategy.
Draco Lucky is probably town! I believe the way both heads entered the game is more likely to be from a town mindset, and I have not seen an issue with their content that would indicate they are pushing an agenda so far.
Vedith is probably town! His tone is believable, and I do not think that scum would have blatantly lighthearted content like this for so long in the game!
Iconeum is somewhat town! This read is shaky, but I thought that the way he handled the rosterfoster case showed he believed in it. I also believe that the wagon on him was interestingly fast, although that admittedly does not change my read around very much.


StarwingBeauvoi is the slot I am least sure about! I do not have a townread nor a scumread on them.

GeminiTwin12 is somewhat scum! The only things I have gotten reads out of for this slot is from a couple of posts, mostly the tone.
rosterfoster is probably scum! I admit, the scumread mostly comes from his hop onto the Iconeum wagon. However, that vote was strange enough that I find it hard to believe it was natural.


VOTE: rosterfoster
I am quite embarrassed! =(
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Post Post #1252 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:57 am

Post by Draco Lucky »

Her instinct during D2 is again very passive. Ank fence sits on her reads, and makes no moves to push the game in the direction they prefer.

Spoiler:
In post 947, Ankamius wrote:idk

scum having a watcher and a bus driver sounds a bit ridiculous unless they maybe don't have multitasking while they're both alive(?)
In post 950, Ankamius wrote:idk

this setup is bonkers enough that it could be a thing

I just don't think both can be used the same night if it's an actual thing
In post 961, Ankamius wrote:My brain is saying we should keep draco alive but my heart says he's just the most likely scum here
In post 963, Ankamius wrote:It's anukets skitter all over again
In post 986, Ankamius wrote:VOTE: Vedith

Sure, this is fine

Draco on jungle please
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Post Post #1253 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:00 am

Post by Draco Lucky »

This absolutely contradicts ank's later claim. I wish I had seen it sooner.
Spoiler:
In post 1083, Ankamius wrote:Gemini

Do you have a roleblock available tonight?
In post 1084, Ankamius wrote:The game is literally solved if you do.
In post 1086, Ankamius wrote:If you have the ability to block, block whichever of draco and vedith we don't lynch

Jungle will be investigating me and I will be targeting you.

I don't think this ever loses as long as Starwing is confirmed to not have killed last night
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Post Post #1254 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:18 am

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1150, Ankamius wrote:That essentially is it

I can see if someone can kill
I can see if someone can stop night actions and strongwilled neighborize them

first was on Gemini
Second was on Jungle

Both were negative results and Jungle joined my neighborhood
At first I thought this was a likely town role because of the strangeness of the double investigative, but it always had to be scum.

Think about the possible setups

Jailkeeper
Watcher
traffic guru with venge kill
neighborizer + kill check (supposedly)
Bus driver

Scum has two prs and one of them bus, driver, is strong, but countered by confirmed!town traffic guru and jailkeeper. The neighborizor ction is confirmable and nothing about the role makes it red checkable by any of the other roles, so there is a good balance. One role can be countered pretty heavily but is strong. The other can't be countered, but is weaker. The utility is entirely based in the ability of the scum to use the neighborize to their benefit.

Consider if ank is town

Jailkeeper + traffic guru with venge + neighborizer that can check for the ability to roleblock + a check on the ability to kill vs watcher and bus driver

How does this make sense? The bus driver would not only be countered by the traffic guru and jailkeeper but also by both investigative actions from ank's slot, and the scum!watcher would be checkable by ank's slot, and the jail keeper's slot. The watcher ability, if it got a result, would have a 1/3 chance of pushing scum to lynch the venge slot (bad for scum), while a false positive from town!ank would also result in the free venge for town. It's simply too much town power + the ability for prs to confirm one another

This game is clearly more balanced with town watcher rather than town whatever ank is claiming.
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Post Post #1255 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:21 am

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1203, Ankamius wrote:Jungle is like 80% the last scum here due to the disinterest

Draco is about 15%

Vedith 5%
This turnaround doesn't make sense from town. Ank was pretty solidly reading JM as town. Additionally, if ank was town, she would have been motivated to use her neighborize on the person she was most confident was town because hitting scum confirms her as a pr. So JM starts to lurk, just like he did at the end of day 1, and that reverses her top town read? Ank never cared who the lynch was all through d2
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Post Post #1256 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:26 am

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1238, Ankamius wrote:Btw I am just going to note

Every single town PR has had complexity and multiple parts to it.

You can see my claim is genuine because of Jungle not saying any of my claim was wrong (meaning I DID neighborize them and their turnaround on Gemini at the start of day two is strong evidence of knowing about the innocent result). I never once was called out by them for fakeclaiming, instead I was outright called and treated as conftown by them until the very end.

Note that this exact trend is NOT KNOWN during day one because our only points of inference from there is rosters double role and merrys single role. It's reasonable to expect that roster has a role that is not indicative of what town has in the setup because the night action is very weak and the vengeful is just as likely to be antitown than protown.

Now.

Draco claimed a watcher. We can believe this is the entirety of his role because he was pushing so hard for fullclaims towards the middle and end of yesterday. Now look at Merry And Pippins role. These are very interestingly similar are they not?
This is all nonsense wifom. Ank is basically trying to meta-read the mod here talking about how all town roles would likely have the same format. I know it's wrong, but it's also not in good faith. It's worse than trying to analyze flavor. If alignment could so easily be determined by roles, we'd see people calling for D1 mass claims in closed games.

@ank what are you basing this meta read on?
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Post Post #1257 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:28 am

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1239, Ankamius wrote:Vengeful + Redirected Detector
Jailkeeper + One-Shot Doctor
Kill Ability Detector + Action Failing Ability Detector Strongwilled Neighborizer
Named Townie
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie

vs

Bus Driver
Watcher

sounds really elegant doesn't it

The cop role can only get a positive on town for the second role, which helps potentially disrupt the two from working together despite the neighborize ability (ESPECIALLY if the neighborize was his driven away) which helps keep the two roles in check

having two strong PRs is kept in check by the vengeful potentially removing a mislynch, the bus driver causing people's actions to be moved around (with the vengeful there to make this public info), and the watcher to catch one of the uses of the role.
note how ank is calling a venge shot anti-town =/ That takes serious suspension of disbelief. It's not like a normal vig, either. The person shooting gets to have just watched their mislynch get pushed through and is more likely to be in a position to clearly see who was acting in bad faith
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Post Post #1258 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:30 am

Post by Draco Lucky »

In post 1240, Ankamius wrote:You cannot use this argument anymore, Jungle proves via their actions towards the start of the day that I claimed my Gemini result near immediately to them. Draco and Jungle together PROVED my neighborhood ability is genuine.

I originally was going to lie about my role and Jungle claimed my result for me while locktowning me. That is strong evidence of us talking together in the neighborhood and me claiming there is more to my role than the neighborhood.

This is enough proof that I have an investigative role, so scum have an investigative regardless of who is scum here. This type of reasoning no longer works.
all this is evidence of is Ank successfully pocketing JM. He also called Ank locktown, but he had no good reason to do so. His bad play yesterday is not a reason to make a bad play today.
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Post Post #1259 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:31 am

Post by Draco Lucky »

got a conference call in a few minutes. more this evening.

Vedith, Starwing, please engage me anywhere you agree/disagree/need more. I really don't want to lose this game.
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Post Post #1260 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:32 am

Post by Draco Lucky »

I thought I did this yesterday but I guess not

VOTE: Ank
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Post Post #1261 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:49 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 1251, Draco Lucky wrote:My understanding of Ank's town play, as described by Ank is that she tries to manipulate the game state in such a manner that her town reads find their way to the scum reads that ank thinks are correct

This was not the style we got this game. D1, she posted one read list and a couple of questions and then made this "oopsy" post at the start of day 2 which pings me in retrospect.

Spoiler:
In post 858, Alacrity wrote:
In post 639, Alacrity wrote:I am caught up!

Merry Pippin is town! I believe the Pippin head has been quite transparently town, and I do not believe the Merry head has been playing to a scum agenda so far.

Jingle Medicine is town! I do not have too many thoughts on this slot, but some specific posts have given me a strong basis for a townread. I also believe that there is enough background focus on that slot for scum looking to work around them to be a viable strategy.
Draco Lucky is probably town! I believe the way both heads entered the game is more likely to be from a town mindset, and I have not seen an issue with their content that would indicate they are pushing an agenda so far.
Vedith is probably town! His tone is believable, and I do not think that scum would have blatantly lighthearted content like this for so long in the game!
Iconeum is somewhat town! This read is shaky, but I thought that the way he handled the rosterfoster case showed he believed in it. I also believe that the wagon on him was interestingly fast, although that admittedly does not change my read around very much.


StarwingBeauvoi is the slot I am least sure about! I do not have a townread nor a scumread on them.

GeminiTwin12 is somewhat scum! The only things I have gotten reads out of for this slot is from a couple of posts, mostly the tone.
rosterfoster is probably scum! I admit, the scumread mostly comes from his hop onto the Iconeum wagon. However, that vote was strange enough that I find it hard to believe it was natural.


VOTE: rosterfoster
I am quite embarrassed! =(
You saw me play on that account in Catloaves

firstly, I play on that account differently than I do on this account specifically because my playstyle is really uncommon and it would be kind of hard to keep a secret alt secret if I used all the same tricks and style choices that I do on this account.d

secondly, my strategy and tactics change to fit the game. what I stated about my town play is ultimately the goal of what I try to do; the exact method changes from game to game and in this specific game, I was trying to get into RCs head which was very blatantly unsuccessful if you go back and look

my playstyle depends a lot on my approach and my approach failing causes a lot of problems for my overall interest in the game (which really didn't get helped by the fact that alacrity is a walling/logic-focused alt which is always hard for me anyways).

my d1 ISO really isn't indicative anyways, plus why would I replace in and immediately apathy out when I'm in a scumteam with RC and skitter?
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Post Post #1262 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:52 am

Post by Draco Lucky »

Yeah, but then you continued to not play like town!ank that you described in that NSG game in D2, so it wasn't just the alt.

And asking why would you apathy out - I don't think that's what you did first of all, I just don't think you were doing normal town!you things - when scum with rc and skitter? I'm not going to pretend to know what strategy you guys had, but you certainly didn't
need
to be active with a partner like that, right? It's not like you had a partner who was lurking forcing you to be active to break up a town bloc or somethign
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Post Post #1263 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:53 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 1252, Draco Lucky wrote:Her instinct during D2 is again very passive. Ank fence sits on her reads, and makes no moves to push the game in the direction they prefer.

Spoiler:
In post 947, Ankamius wrote:idk

scum having a watcher and a bus driver sounds a bit ridiculous unless they maybe don't have multitasking while they're both alive(?)
In post 950, Ankamius wrote:idk

this setup is bonkers enough that it could be a thing

I just don't think both can be used the same night if it's an actual thing
In post 961, Ankamius wrote:My brain is saying we should keep draco alive but my heart says he's just the most likely scum here
In post 963, Ankamius wrote:It's anukets skitter all over again
In post 986, Ankamius wrote:VOTE: Vedith

Sure, this is fine

Draco on jungle please
it was because

the game was literally solved

It was literally ANTITOWN to say too much and risk giving away the deception

and when I have the ability to solve the game mechaniclly, I'm going to play to solve the game mechanically. Nonreviewed singlehandedly proves that because I abandoned my really strong reads to play the mechanics game and ended up wasting time lynching all the herpaderp town fakeclaimers before scum lost because the setup was broken.
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Post Post #1264 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:54 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 1253, Draco Lucky wrote:This absolutely contradicts ank's later claim. I wish I had seen it sooner.
Spoiler:
In post 1083, Ankamius wrote:Gemini

Do you have a roleblock available tonight?
In post 1084, Ankamius wrote:The game is literally solved if you do.
In post 1086, Ankamius wrote:If you have the ability to block, block whichever of draco and vedith we don't lynch

Jungle will be investigating me and I will be targeting you.

I don't think this ever loses as long as Starwing is confirmed to not have killed last night
um

the original plan was for jungle to absorb the NK while we clear two people

That's kinda what a neighborhood allows you to do
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Post Post #1265 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:19 am

Post by Vedith »

In post 1250, Draco Lucky wrote:Vedith, I'm a bit worried that you've already made up your mind and this is for nothing, so I hope that's not true.
UNVOTE: Draco

I'll listen if you're going to put effort in.
I claim scum \o/
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Post Post #1266 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:21 am

Post by Vedith »

Oh you already did.
A lot to read. Looks town.
I claim scum \o/
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Post Post #1267 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:25 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 1254, Draco Lucky wrote:
In post 1150, Ankamius wrote:That essentially is it

I can see if someone can kill
I can see if someone can stop night actions and strongwilled neighborize them

first was on Gemini
Second was on Jungle

Both were negative results and Jungle joined my neighborhood
At first I thought this was a likely town role because of the strangeness of the double investigative, but it always had to be scum.

Think about the possible setups

Jailkeeper
Watcher
traffic guru with venge kill
neighborizer + kill check (supposedly)
Bus driver

Scum has two prs and one of them bus, driver, is strong, but countered by confirmed!town traffic guru and jailkeeper. The neighborizor ction is confirmable and nothing about the role makes it red checkable by any of the other roles, so there is a good balance. One role can be countered pretty heavily but is strong. The other can't be countered, but is weaker. The utility is entirely based in the ability of the scum to use the neighborize to their benefit.

Consider if ank is town

Jailkeeper + traffic guru with venge + neighborizer that can check for the ability to roleblock + a check on the ability to kill vs watcher and bus driver

How does this make sense? The bus driver would not only be countered by the traffic guru and jailkeeper but also by both investigative actions from ank's slot, and the scum!watcher would be checkable by ank's slot, and the jail keeper's slot. The watcher ability, if it got a result, would have a 1/3 chance of pushing scum to lynch the venge slot (bad for scum), while a false positive from town!ank would also result in the free venge for town. It's simply too much town power + the ability for prs to confirm one another

This game is clearly more balanced with town watcher rather than town whatever ank is claiming.
incorrect.

1. Town only has two mislynches by default and if the vengeful is killed, most of the time it will EAT one of them. This can easily put town into MyLo on DAY TWO, which is absolutely insane for most setups. Town needs a backup plan for this to not singlehandedly break the game in favor for scum,
ESPECIALLY WITH SCUM BEING ABLE TO BUS DRIVE THEIR NIGHT ACTION TARGET TO AVOID DOCTORS AND WATCHERS
, which ensures that the scumteam can kill the strongest town N1.
2. The amount of power has with my role being town and yours being scum makes a lot of sense.

2a. scum can busdrive the jailkeep away from their NK target (which I would expect 99% of the time most scumteams would be using with a bus drive on N1). This puts doubt on the JK claim and/or the Doctor claim.
2b. the vengeful's night action is not likely to have any impact on the game since just knowing that somebody had a redirect used on them is not exactly very useful to the game unless another PR (namely only Gemini since I would know I was redirected) also targeted the same target. This is... not exactly very likely!
2c. my role has two parts, one of which is gated by a false guilty target (the vengeful), and the other of which can ONLY get a guilty on town (gemini). the neighborizer being strong-willed means that my claims of being redirected are inherently suspicious, especially if my result was redirected off the target I neighborized.
2d. Effectively,
the game is based around town's power roles being able to paint a pretty good picture of what's going on with enough context, but the individual parts are not confirmable.


Town having a Jailkeeper+OneShotDoctor and a double investigative is really strong for a 9p game,
that's why town was also given an anti-town role in the vengeful and scum were given the watcher in order to have very good odds of detecting at least one PR on night one.
The town was ALSO purposely designed in a way that a massclaim wouldn't singlehandedly break the game since the bus driver screws with results, the watcher helps scum build a narrative to help counter it, the vengeful redirection detector is also sketchy enough to be mislynchable in that scenario, and town is
specifically
designed in a way that makes it very hard to consolidate information accurately since none of it is technically confirmable as town.

So yes, town makes a lot more sense with my role as town over yours.

It fits the design of the game.
It's
REQUIRED
to counter the massive amounts of swing that the vengeful adds to the game if it's lynched D1 and vengekills town.
It's built into the setup that even if something goes wrong, my role is just as likely to even the odds with a really unlucky check as it is to end the game with a lucky check.

Watcher does
NOT
have these same interactions.
Watcher being town here means that the scumteam have the ability to detect two of the three PRs, AND can kill whoever the fuck they want via the bus driver, AND an extra possibility of getting full role info that town would not have via the neighborhood. And town in return gets the JK+Doc, the anti-town vengeful role, and... the ability to catch the bus driver! And every other PR in the game! The ability to be able to out PRs to the town or to the scum neighborizer!

That's absolutely ridiculous and not at all congruent with the rest of the town PRs like my role is.
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Post Post #1268 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:26 am

Post by Vedith »

That's a lot of words too and looks town.
I claim scum \o/
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Post Post #1269 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:27 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 1255, Draco Lucky wrote:
In post 1203, Ankamius wrote:Jungle is like 80% the last scum here due to the disinterest

Draco is about 15%

Vedith 5%
This turnaround doesn't make sense from town. Ank was pretty solidly reading JM as town. Additionally, if ank was town, she would have been motivated to use her neighborize on the person she was most confident was town because hitting scum confirms her as a pr. So JM starts to lurk, just like he did at the end of day 1, and that reverses her top town read? Ank never cared who the lynch was all through d2
I switched to scumreading Jungle on a dime because the sudden burst of effort looked town enough and it made me realize that jungle had said very little despite a reasonably strong start to day 2 (and even later said that they weren't following along with the game when I posted in there that I was suspecting gemini of being a traitor)

I thought at that point the game was an auto-win and I could easily see Jungle realizing the game was an auto-win and just giving up, so I decided that lynching them was the better choice in case it was that specific scenario.
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Post Post #1270 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:30 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 1256, Draco Lucky wrote:
In post 1238, Ankamius wrote:Btw I am just going to note

Every single town PR has had complexity and multiple parts to it.

You can see my claim is genuine because of Jungle not saying any of my claim was wrong (meaning I DID neighborize them and their turnaround on Gemini at the start of day two is strong evidence of knowing about the innocent result). I never once was called out by them for fakeclaiming, instead I was outright called and treated as conftown by them until the very end.

Note that this exact trend is NOT KNOWN during day one because our only points of inference from there is rosters double role and merrys single role. It's reasonable to expect that roster has a role that is not indicative of what town has in the setup because the night action is very weak and the vengeful is just as likely to be antitown than protown.

Now.

Draco claimed a watcher. We can believe this is the entirety of his role because he was pushing so hard for fullclaims towards the middle and end of yesterday. Now look at Merry And Pippins role. These are very interestingly similar are they not?
This is all nonsense wifom. Ank is basically trying to meta-read the mod here talking about how all town roles would likely have the same format. I know it's wrong, but it's also not in good faith. It's worse than trying to analyze flavor. If alignment could so easily be determined by roles, we'd see people calling for D1 mass claims in closed games.

@ank what are you basing this meta read on?
schadd's oddball setups, in my experience, are very deliberately made.

very. deliberately. made.
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Post Post #1271 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:31 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 1257, Draco Lucky wrote:
In post 1239, Ankamius wrote:Vengeful + Redirected Detector
Jailkeeper + One-Shot Doctor
Kill Ability Detector + Action Failing Ability Detector Strongwilled Neighborizer
Named Townie
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie

vs

Bus Driver
Watcher

sounds really elegant doesn't it

The cop role can only get a positive on town for the second role, which helps potentially disrupt the two from working together despite the neighborize ability (ESPECIALLY if the neighborize was his driven away) which helps keep the two roles in check

having two strong PRs is kept in check by the vengeful potentially removing a mislynch, the bus driver causing people's actions to be moved around (with the vengeful there to make this public info), and the watcher to catch one of the uses of the role.
note how ank is calling a venge shot anti-town =/
That takes serious suspension of disbelief. It's not like a normal vig, either. The person shooting gets to have just watched their mislynch get pushed through and is more likely to be in a position to clearly see who was acting in bad faith
this really should just say it all right here

town has the ability to be town's first mislynch and take away the only other mislynch town has.

and (U2?) is saying that the venge-shot is not anti-town.
Ankamius
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Post Post #1272 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:33 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 1258, Draco Lucky wrote:
In post 1240, Ankamius wrote:You cannot use this argument anymore, Jungle proves via their actions towards the start of the day that I claimed my Gemini result near immediately to them. Draco and Jungle together PROVED my neighborhood ability is genuine.

I originally was going to lie about my role and Jungle claimed my result for me while locktowning me. That is strong evidence of us talking together in the neighborhood and me claiming there is more to my role than the neighborhood.

This is enough proof that I have an investigative role, so scum have an investigative regardless of who is scum here. This type of reasoning no longer works.
all this is evidence of is Ank successfully pocketing JM. He also called Ank locktown, but he had no good reason to do so. His bad play yesterday is not a reason to make a bad play today.
you can say I pocketed jungle all you like, the sudden switch on Gemini is still evidence that I
claimed
an innocent result on Gemini early on in the day, and the way we both played after that is pretty significant proof that we were working together mechanically at that point.

this is strong evidence that my role is genuine. I've also already shown that my role is much more elegant for town to have than the watcher.
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Vedith
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Post Post #1273 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:13 am

Post by Vedith »

So this is where I'm at.
Ank I felt was town.
Draco I felt was scum.

Right now I wouldn't be sad to lose to either of these.
And right now the only town who will deserve to win is the other from the 2.
I say this because theres been a lack of effort from town all game.

So I'm most likely going to lynch Draco.

Both sides of the arguments are just biased to scum in the other.

But I want to read both sides properly when I'm in a better mind set, and as it's my birthday in 3 hours I'm not doing it tomorrow :mad:
But day after? Can you guys wait for me to read then?

If Starwing says "Vedith, vote x with me" I might just do.
I claim scum \o/
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Post Post #1274 (ISO) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:38 am

Post by Ankamius »

happy birthday vedith!

take the time you need <3

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