mini 2048: more songs (game ougre)


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Post Post #611 (isolation #0) » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:57 pm

Post by mastina »

Bad news good news game time!

Bad news, my predecessor didn't claim this D1 as far as I can tell.
Good news, better late than never!
I am ascetic
.

Bad news, power is out, limiting my contributions.
Good news, can still contribute!

Bad news, my catch up post was on my desktop, unsaved.

Good news, I have a backup of sorts that I PMd the mod.

Bad news, that will take me forever to recreate on my phone.

Good news, I can give you a succinct cliffnote summary!
VOTE: Robert
HURT: xwing.

Both scum bussed, and these two by far stood out as the most likely candidates.
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Post Post #613 (isolation #1) » Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:15 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 612, profii wrote:why claim ascetic
Because it is stupendously antitown to not.
While it does prevent any scum roles from targeting me and lets them know that they can kill me for free, it tells the town roles not to waste their action on me. Thus, they can use their role on someone who it will work on.

Balance of probability, basically.
The chances of being targeted by town > the chances of being targeted by scum.

Thus, claim.
It's the same reason that you never leave miller unclaimed.
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Post Post #667 (isolation #2) » Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:33 am

Post by mastina »

So a few things:
  • My power came back …
    …For about five, ten minutes. And is back down again.
    Still, that it came back is promising, indicating that I should get it back for good some time today.
  • That means that some time today, I'll be able to use my desktop and play properly.
  • Including posting my catch up notes.
  • Speaking of which, please don't lynch Wagonomics. Aside from that rendering me unable to post my notes, when you see them, you'll also see that Wagonomics is one of my strongest townreads.
  • Speaking of desktop abilities and Wagonomics, I can tell you that your setup spec is off, and go into meticulous detail as to why. Something that if you know me well enough to know that I won't lie about role, you'll also know I'd NEVER lie about. The short version is, you're comparing an apple to an orange and thinking that the orange is an apple.

    Like I said, if you wait, I can give you the details here.
  • Also, it did not escape my notice that the Rob wagon, likely on scum, went from near lynch to collapsed literally overnight, replaced by the godawful Wagonomics countetwagon.
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Post Post #670 (isolation #3) » Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:41 am

Post by mastina »

I think I can copy paste the readslist I came up with.Trivium
Wagonomics
Nikk

LolWagons
Lapsa
Sashadin

Flubbernugget

profii
Egix

xwing
Robert

Oh hey, I did indeed.
I can get the whole thing later.

To not set expectations too high tho: I basically recorded thoughts documenting conclusions, rather than the actual process behind the thought.

But when I can actually POST said conclusions, I can run through how I got them.
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Post Post #685 (isolation #4) » Sat Dec 22, 2018 5:40 pm

Post by mastina »

FUCK MY PHONE AND IT'S RANDOM FAILURES LEAVING ME UNABLE TO EVEN DECLARE FUCKING V/LA THIS IS MY TENTH TRY TO TELL YOU
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Post Post #800 (isolation #5) » Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:18 pm

Post by mastina »

MOD:
I can't post today, and if work makes me feel the same way I do right now, tomorrow, then I can't post tomorrow, either.

Trust me, the toxicity I feel right now is best kept out of thread, and I can't manage that in my current state.

Suffice to say.
I've had a bad day.

I do owe you this:
VOTE: Robert.
But can't give more without hostility beyond what you deserve.
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Post Post #866 (isolation #6) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:01 am

Post by mastina »

In post 719, xwing wrote:i'm annoyed with how the last day went..didnt even wait for everyone to have their say before the lynch when we had plenty of time to discuss..i thought we were in agreement that we were going to look at profii slot? how come it changed to wagonomics?
VOTE: profii
also, flubber NK highly suggests robert as scum, unless it's a frame-up job..
The real question is: how come the wagon changed from Robert--who WAS CLOSE TO BEING LYNCHED YESTERDAY (Robert got to either L-2 or maybe even L-1, and then, randomly, for
no reason whatsoever
, that wagon reversed onto Wagonomics IN SPITE OF ME SAYING THAT I HAD WAGON AS MY STRONGEST TOWNREAD FOR GOOD REASON)--onto Wagonomics?

And for that matter...how come you correctly note that the Flubber nightkill is yet more evidence of Robert as scum...yet instead vote
profii
?

It's posts like this which are why xwing is my top pick for Robert's scumbuddy. This reluctance to outright bus has been present the whole game.

(Also. Yes. This is me
after
having calmed down and de-stressed. Now you know why I needed to declare the V/LA because if this is me after having de-stressed, relaxed and chilled out, just imagine what I'd do if posting when emotionally compromised.)
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Post Post #867 (isolation #7) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:12 am

Post by mastina »

In post 725, Egix96 wrote:Does anyone else here think mastina could be an ascetic goon?
That'd be poor setup design if so.

Before you guys fucking lynched yesterday.

I said.

"Don't lynch before I get a chance to explain things."

You fucking lynched before I could explain things.

Wagonomics had a mistaken idea of what PR balance in a 13-player mini normal is. He was comparing schadd's past games, which have recently been smaller sizes (I'd know since I reviewed most of them), to a full-sized game. In a mini normal that has 13 players, you're looking at around 3 very strong town PRs vs. an all-goon scumteam. Adjust as is necessary--if you add a scum PR/add a town PR, you need to add a town PR/a scum PR (respectively).

So for me to be an ascetic goon, you'd need a fourth VERY strong PR. We're talking, watcher-strength. Not voyeur-strength. Voyeurs are borderline useless to the town, especially in this game's setup. (The voyeur gets to see that the town neighborizers used their action--a fact that the neighborized player themselves is quite capable of claiming.) Probably not even tracker/follower strength. You'd need an incredibly strong town power role, along the lines of cop, jailkeeper, doctor, to justify giving scum an ascetic, because the town roles we have are already gated.

In contrast, an ascetic town player (keep in mind that roles hold different values as different alignments--ascetic goon is one of the strongest scum PRs possible in a mini as a pseudo-strongman, pseudo-ninja, pseudo-godfather immune to trackers/followers/cops/roleblockers/jailkeepers, whereas an ascetic town is...basically worthless) balances the setup out nicely, because it is a player the neighborizers can't neighborize.

With the neighborizers being loyal, ascetic mafia is redundant--it'd be like putting in a mafia miller to a game. (Which, mind you, I do, but this is schadd's setup design, not mine.) But with the neighborizers being loyal, ascetic town is essentially a miller: something that is mostly net-neutral for balance, situationally positive, but also notably and visibly negative utility. It's a great role to augment the design of the setup's aesthetic we have here.
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Post Post #868 (isolation #8) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:19 am

Post by mastina »

In post 754, Robert2424 wrote:btw, if you haven't guessed by now I'm a Voyeur. Nobody visited Lapsa last night either.
This is pretty much always a scum role btw.

A town voyeur here gives the town absolutely nothing. What's it supposed to catch? Some mystical, mythical, completely unseen, unheard of, magical scum PR that there is literally no evidence of existing? My skeptical description should let you know what I think about that.

The town PRs?

Okay, which alignment benefits from catching the town PRs?

A voyeur can't pin the scum down, but
can
pin who the town PRs are. It is a weak investigative role, akin to a nerfed rolecop. Slightly weaker than a mafia Neapolitan, even, but still serving much the same function as one: serving to help identify what types of town actions are being used in the game, and on whom.

It's a role that I can easily seen added to the scum if the balancer for the game went, "I feel this setup's a bit townsided; can you give the scum something extra?".
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Post Post #869 (isolation #9) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:27 am

Post by mastina »

In post 769, xwing wrote:
In post 756, Trivium wrote:I'm trying to think of a reason you shouldn't believe me xwing, I really am, and I can't find any. Unless there's a mafia roleblocker who blocked flubber's neighborizing *and* maf killed flub the same night while somehow knowing flubber was both neighborizer and was going to neighborize me tonight... I mean, I'm town.
i havent encountered this role before so im not so sure how it plays..
im thinking scum can also claim they were neighborized then someone would cc then it would be a 1v1..
but then it would be 1 town for 1 scum so it's anti-scum play..
okay that makes sense i didnt think it through much..sorry mr. armless..
@profii: processing.........gimme time..
And yet more reasons why I feel xwing is Robert's scumbuddy.

xwing was looking for any angle to cast shade on the conftown to make them not be conftown. (In a very either-MathBlade-or-Titus-I-forget-which-of-the-two-used-this-tacticesque way.) When the angle pursued was shut down, xwing was forced to back down, but this was not a town train to be going down in the first place.
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Post Post #870 (isolation #10) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:32 am

Post by mastina »

In post 801, Robert2424 wrote:Why do you think you owe me a vote.
I owe you a vote because a personal philosophy of mine is to always place a vote down outside of lylo (because the only universal weapons of the town are their voice and your VOTE, thus, not using your vote is equally as negligent to me as not using your voice), and you
should
have been the lynch yesterday.

Robert reeked even stronger than xwing did on D1 of a scumbuddy who was reluctant to bus, being eventually convinced to hop on--in his case, as the hammer vote. He did everything he could to try and not be on that wagon, and only when it was inevitable did he hammer, with great reluctance. That is what I was trying to say yesterday but didn't get an opportunity to show.

And then yesterday, this scumness continued. We wagoned Robert--but at the last minute, this was diverted onto Wagonomics.

And today, people are trying to do the same thing.
We wagoned Robert to L-1.

And now, people are trying to divert onto profii.

How many days will you go wagoning Robert up, only to decide to switch to a player that then flips town, before you realize you shouldn't have switched off his wagon?
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Post Post #877 (isolation #11) » Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:36 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 872, Nikk wrote:My vote stands. Profli was a key contributor to moving from moving off Robert to Wagon. So if you are saying Robert is narrowly avoiding the noose and this makes him scum wouldn't logically stand to reason to look at who started to push away and onto Wagon?
Sure would!

...
After
you lynch Robert.

Not before.

You lynch the fucking scum before you try to lynch the scumbuddy.
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Post Post #907 (isolation #12) » Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:39 pm

Post by mastina »

MOD: Need another 24 hour V/LA.

Yesterday was the absolute SHITTIEST day possible.
I don't want to talk about it, and I CERTAINLY shouldn't be playing while I have yesterday on my mind.

VOTE: Robert.
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Post Post #931 (isolation #13) » Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:00 am

Post by mastina »

In post 906, Robert2424 wrote:I Visited Lapsa again. Nobody visited him.
This is a scum usage of the power, because the town usage of it would be visiting Trivium.
In post 908, xwing wrote:i wont bother answering mastina's accusations against me right now unless it gains steam..

but if i only read mastina by herself, i dont feel so good about that slot..basically it's just "i'll vote here, im having a bad day cant stay long..bye.." (oversimplification but you get my drift)
These two do not go together.

The very fact that I have made accusations against you is proof that I have done more than what you are implying I have:
In post 611, mastina wrote:Both scum bussed, and these two by far stood out as the most likely candidates.
In post 667, mastina wrote:Also, it did not escape my notice that the Rob wagon, likely on scum, went from near lynch to collapsed literally overnight, replaced by the godawful Wagonomics countetwagon.
In post 670, mastina wrote:Trivium
Wagonomics
Nikk

LolWagons
Lapsa
Sashadin

Flubbernugget

profii
Egix

xwing
Robert

To not set expectations too high tho: I basically recorded thoughts documenting conclusions, rather than the actual process behind the thought.
But when I can actually POST said conclusions, I can run through how I got them.
In post 866, mastina wrote:
In post 719, xwing wrote:i'm annoyed with how the last day went..didnt even wait for everyone to have their say before the lynch when we had plenty of time to discuss..i thought we were in agreement that we were going to look at profii slot? how come it changed to wagonomics?
VOTE: profii
also, flubber NK highly suggests robert as scum, unless it's a frame-up job..
The real question is: how come the wagon changed from Robert--who WAS CLOSE TO BEING LYNCHED YESTERDAY (Robert got to either L-2 or maybe even L-1, and then, randomly, for
no reason whatsoever
, that wagon reversed onto Wagonomics IN SPITE OF ME SAYING THAT I HAD WAGON AS MY STRONGEST TOWNREAD FOR GOOD REASON)--onto Wagonomics?

And for that matter...how come you correctly note that the Flubber nightkill is yet more evidence of Robert as scum...yet instead vote
profii
?


It's posts like this which are why xwing is my top pick for Robert's scumbuddy. This reluctance to outright bus has been present the whole game.
In post 869, mastina wrote:
In post 769, xwing wrote:
In post 756, Trivium wrote:I'm trying to think of a reason you shouldn't believe me xwing, I really am, and I can't find any. Unless there's a mafia roleblocker who blocked flubber's neighborizing *and* maf killed flub the same night while somehow knowing flubber was both neighborizer and was going to neighborize me tonight... I mean, I'm town.
i havent encountered this role before so im not so sure how it plays..
im thinking scum can also claim they were neighborized then someone would cc then it would be a 1v1..
but then it would be 1 town for 1 scum so it's anti-scum play..
okay that makes sense i didnt think it through much..sorry mr. armless..
@profii: processing.........gimme time..
And yet more reasons why I feel xwing is Robert's scumbuddy.

xwing was looking for any angle to cast shade on the conftown to make them not be conftown. (In a very either-MathBlade-or-Titus-I-forget-which-of-the-two-used-this-tacticesque way.) When the angle pursued was shut down, xwing was forced to back down, but this was not a town train to be going down in the first place.
In post 870, mastina wrote:Robert reeked even stronger than xwing did on D1 of a scumbuddy who was reluctant to bus, being eventually convinced to hop on--in his case, as the hammer vote. He did everything he could to try and not be on that wagon, and only when it was inevitable did he hammer, with great reluctance. That is what I was trying to say yesterday but didn't get an opportunity to show.

And then yesterday, this scumness continued. We wagoned Robert--but at the last minute, this was diverted onto Wagonomics.

And today, people are trying to do the same thing.
We wagoned Robert to L-1.

And now, people are trying to divert onto profii.

How many days will you go wagoning Robert up, only to decide to switch to a player that then flips town, before you realize you shouldn't have switched off his wagon?
To give follow-through on my notes: believe it or not, in my original analysis eyeballing the wagon, Robert was the player I found least-suspicious positioning-wise. With the assumption both scum bussed--which is a fairly likely assumption when you have a D1 scum lynch and lack counterwagons--I actually found that it was Egix > xwing > profii/Robert equally, off of blind VCA.

But that was blind VCA, on wagon positioning; Egix and xwing were in optimal bus-vote range, whereas profii and Robert were possible bus votes but less likely.

I did note a couple other votecounts other than the day-end one:
In post 475, schadd_ wrote:
TheGoldenParadox (6):
Trivium, LolWagons, Egix96, xwing, Nikk, profii
Lapsa (3):
Robert2424, Sashaddin, Wagonomics
Robert2424 (2):
Doughboy, Flubbernugget
profii (1):
TheGoldenParadox
not voting (1):
Lapsa
Robert's vote here reeked of being scum
trying
for the counterwagon, only to eventually give up and hammer the scumbuddy.
In post 175, schadd_ wrote:
TheGoldenParadox (4):
Trivium, LolWagons, Egix96, xwing
xwing (4):
TheGoldenParadox, Lapsa, Flubbernugget, profii
Lapsa (2):
Robert2424, Nikk
Wagonomics (1):
Sashaddin
Robert2424 (1):
Doughboy
Nikk (1):
Wagonomics
Here I noted that it was quite probable that both the lead wagons were on scum. The overall development of the wagons over the course of the day strongly suggested that scum were always on the line and that they didn't have a true counterwagon opportunity, instead opting to bus.

But then there was my analysis of pages 24, 23, 22, 21, and 20 (in that order).
In post 583, Robert2424 wrote:
In post 579, LolWagons wrote:Is that hammer? I was lyncher, TGP was my target. I win right?
A lyncher? I certainally hope a role isn't in this game....
This immediately pinged me, contrasting with Trivium and Wagonomics' much more town-sounding posts on that page.
In post 578, Robert2424 wrote:I mean, I think people are content with a Golden lynch. I can see Lapsa somewhere in there, but nobody feels strong on him as I do. But its either be part of a lynch, or be on a wagon that people won't get on.
Vote Golden

If Golden town, then I got a list, if not, we have a head start.
This was a textbook scum bus.
In post 566, xwing wrote:@lol thanks for answering, but i still think sasha is townie..i just didnt like his last sentence, seems AtoE..
im okay with egix/profii grill tom..profii moreso regardless of gp flip..profii reaction test just had me confused.. @_@

wagonomics slot seems townie to me..even if their post count is low and meme-y, his values counter gets updated everytime based on the events that are happening in game..
@wagonomics: why egix, and not profii?

@nikk: are you scum reading flubz still? who are your top scum reads again and why?
This post screamed scum. It looked like it was setting up for the long game, making preparations for a flip xwing already knew the details of.
In post 563, Nikk wrote:*walks away sadly with Charlie Brown sad music playing*
Nikk became a townread entirely because of posts like this, which I felt were in line with the type of posting Wagonomics and Trivium were making, albeit not as strongly.
In post 506, Robert2424 wrote:I'm going to have to reread here, some peoples reasoning confuses me. Like for an example, laspa unvote, Wagonomics putting me so low while 3 people were voting for me.

to me, Golden could flip either way, though I would prefer laspa. Wagonomics seems willing to hammer golden.

Everyone seems in favor of a lynch, except Lapsa. so unless somebody jumps on Lapsa still, witch I don't think is very likely, Golden seems to be the person for today.

So the question is would I want to hammer Golden myself. I put in an earlier post somebody to try to convince me to vote for him, but nobody seemed to notice or care. So I have to wonder, who would people want to have hammer him?
Not only was this fishing for a counterwagon, but it was prodding for opinions on what he should do--what the towniest action for him would be, if it'd look better for him to hammer or worse for him to hammer.
In post 504, xwing wrote:
In post 500, Trivium wrote:I don't like that lol's talking about why they might be left alive tonight already, but whatever
i can get why you find this icky, but at this point just put it under "noted" section..lolwagon's too far from the global scummy list..

that said, tgp claim makes me think he might actually really be town
..my next scum would be profii too anyway though so should still be fine, i guess..

i was initially skeptical with trivium's intent to hammer, but upon ISO, found him consistent in reading tgp as scummy..so my fears subsided a bit..

i still think db is town, his play is quite similar to when i've played with him..but hope he picks up his activity, he's pretty good at scum hunting (when he doesnt let his emotions get the better of him)..

@lol, interesting take on sasha, can you expand a bit more? still think he's town at this point..
This is what really spiked me on xwing. The bolded looked like trying to find a way, an excuse, to get off of a wagon that xwing didn't know was going to go that far, and there's multiple angles to approach it from, where xwing casts shade on multiple players in the game.
In post 488, xwing wrote:regardless of how gp flips, i think we need to take a look at profii, not feeling comfy with this slot..
see my post , middle part talks about profii

i think just blindly voting someone OUTSIDE of rvs based on OLD information is very, very scummy and i see this as more of a scumslip than gp statement..
This further felt like setting up a mislynch after knowing the results of the D1 lynch.

There's more to my notes than that, but these are some of the important highlights.
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Post Post #952 (isolation #14) » Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:26 am

Post by mastina »

In post 950, xwing wrote:
In post 1, schadd_ wrote:
Mafia will be able to communicate with each other during day phases.

There will be 10 town and 3 mafia.

Nobody will be a cop, a psychologist, a ninja, or a traitor
.
@egix: see above..
@mastina: are you still gonna push me as scum and help the scum team? do you want a rebuttal on this? i still want to believe you're town, and expert on setup spec, but apparently your scum!voyeur was wrong..

my other question is, if flubbz is loyal neighborizer, why do we only have trivium neighbor? there should be two as flubber got NK'd on N2..
unless he hit scum, which we now know he never did, as both people he soft guiltied are actually town..
makes me wonder who he neighborized N1..
While you are still my main suspect, this is lylo. It'd be rather foolish of me to be presumptuous of my reads and just assume I'm right.

So, I'll be taking my time, and everyone else should, too.

On the note of roles, I DO have thoughts…
…But they should be saved until AFTER everyone has claimed. (Obviously, if I said what I was expecting, it'd be easier for scum to tailor to that.)

So, to be clear:
Everyone claim in your next post.
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Post Post #959 (isolation #15) » Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:13 am

Post by mastina »

MOD: V/LA due to power outage.

Be back when I have power.
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Post Post #966 (isolation #16) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:18 am

Post by mastina »

Power's back, saw the lack of PR claims.
This is disappointing, because if I saw one, we'd have an easy lynch. With the strength of the town, I expect that the scum have a PR, and I'm the last town one alive.

Unfortunately, that means I have to do it the hard way. I'll read the thread, all of it, tomorrow, since I'm too busy with work today.
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Post Post #976 (isolation #17) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:43 pm

Post by mastina »

Still haven't read the game from the start since need desktop, time, etc. not available until tomorrow, but.
Have been keeping current on the current posting.

My concern is this.
Stop me anywhere if I'm wrong.

It's 5p lylo. If a town player votes town, we lose.
Scum are incentivized to not vote scum and instead vote town. They CAN bus, but it would delay victory and give the town extra info.

The two most widely townread players are Nikk and myself.

If you assume that there are 2 scum in the remaining 3, then if we continue with the train of thought, they'd be incentivized to not bus. But the pool is themselves and one townie, so they must maintain suspicion of each other, while also pushing the townie.

Okay, follow that?

Now.

My concern here is.
While Egix and Xwing have shown suspicion of each other, they are BOTH pushing Lapsa HARDER than they are pushing each other. And Nikk is suspicious of Lapsa.

I can't help but feel that they're trying to push Nikk into voting Lapsa, so that they can hammer without first needing to bus.
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Post Post #977 (isolation #18) » Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:47 pm

Post by mastina »

Oh, hmm. I was wrong. Egix favors Nikk as scum.
Never mind then, move along. No problem.
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Post Post #992 (isolation #19) » Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:17 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 979, xwing wrote:how did you arrive at the conclusion that both scum bussed tgp?
At the time?
Experience.
In Mini Normals, on D1, if there is a scum lynch, then about 80-90% of the time, there is at least one scum who bussed to achieve the result.
There is about a 60-75% chance of it being
two
scum bussing.
These odds decrease if there is a STRONG counterwagon (we're talking a minimum of 4 votes AT END OF DAY, preferably being even higher at like 5 or 6) by like 10-20%, because if there's a strong, STRONG counterwagon to the scum lynch, it's possible that the scum were fighting it.
These odds increase if there's a complete and utter LACK of a counterwagon (we're talking, nobody at 3 or above votes) by 5-10%.

Since there was no counterwagon, instantly that means scum bussing.

Of course. That was my original entrance reasoning.

Since then?

You need only look at one simple fact.
In post 592, schadd_ wrote:
TheGoldenParadox (7):
Trivium, LolWagons, Egix96, xwing, Nikk, profii, Robert2424

Robert2424 (2):
Doughboy,
Flubbernugget

Lapsa (1):
Sashaddin

profii (1):
TheGoldenParadox

Egix96 (1):
Wagonomics

not voting (1):
Lapsa
I am Doughboy's slot. I know it to be town.

The only living player other than myself off the D1 scum lynch is Lapsa--meaning that even if Lapsa is scum, there's at least one scum ON the wagon, meaning there is at least one scum who bussed.

And if Lapsa is town, then regardless of who the scum would be in Nikk/Egix/xwing, we'd have two scum bussing.

Now obviously, this only works from my perspective because I know my slot is town and others do not, but you can see where I'm coming from. I 100% know for an absolute FACT one scum bussed--if one scum bussed, why not two?
In post 979, xwing wrote:also see egix's post , the part on trivium..how come you attack me but not egix, who's basically saying the same thing as i am??
Uh, I don't see how that was the same? "Not 100% conftown but out of POE for now" was a perfectly reasonable stance to hold; that wasn't the stance I saw from you.
In post 979, xwing wrote:how strong/confident are you of your town!nikk read?
Not strong enough to bet the game on it--quite the opposite, in fact; Nikk's a weak townread. He doesn't look like scum, but I'm well aware that the reasons I'm townreading him are largely stupid stuff that I'm putting a lot of weight into.
In post 985, xwing wrote:can we vote lapsa now? mastina are you still not done with your reread? im expecting heaps from you, no pressure.
So am I--by that, I mean. I am expecting to be in the position of gamesolving because of my status. Except in spite of my promise to read today, I can't.

I'm suffering from extreme fatigue today--I don't know
why
I am this tired. Logically, there shouldn't be any reason. I slept half of the day! I didn't work today at all! I've basically had the most stress-free, relaxing, calming, soothing day humanly possible, where I've gotten the amount of rest necessary to do what I want.

Except.

In spite of that. It's still there. I'm frustrated and even baffled by it; by all analysis and such, I SHOULD be in perfect health both mentally and physically (not to mention, emotionally) right now. Yet I'm tired to the point where I want to sleep. And my high standards are precisely why that's prevented me from reading today.

I could
read
today, in spite of being tired. But I wouldn't
process
the information I read, and because processing and analyzing the information is what I most need to do, then I need to put it off until the fatigue goes away. In spite of me working tomorrow, I
think
I'll be recovered tomorrow, so I'll delay for one day. Apologies for not finishing it today like I originally planned. Hope the 24 hour wait is worth it.
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Post Post #993 (isolation #20) » Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:23 pm

Post by mastina »

While we're quoting that votecount, by the way:
In post 592, schadd_ wrote:
TheGoldenParadox
(7):
Trivium
,
LolWagons
, Egix96, xwing, Nikk,
profii
,
Robert2424

Robert2424
(2):
Doughboy
,
Flubbernugget

Lapsa (1):
Sashaddin

profii
(1):
TheGoldenParadox

Egix96 (1):
Wagonomics

not voting (1):
Lapsa
Another thing which makes me suspect two scum on the wagon?

Look at where the living three players are in the wagon: right. smack. dab. the middle of it. It started with two town, and ended with two town. The middle three slots on the other hand...

Basic mafia theory is all you need to know to know that's the bus zone. The zone where, if a scum player is going to go for a bus, they decide to join the wagon. Where they aren't pushing hard enough for it to be a hard-bus, but aren't joining late enough for it to be the last nail in their scumbuddy's coffin.
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Post Post #1000 (isolation #21) » Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:07 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 997, xwing wrote:if lapsa is town, then egix-nikk is scum team for sure..
I'd be more than happy to test Lapsa being town with a lynch, except. Yaknow. There's the one obvious problem with that.

Basically, we
can't
test that. We need to get it right, today. If Lapsa is scum, yes, we get a chance to find the scum on the wagon tomorrow, but if Lapsa isn't scum, that's it; we lose if we assumed she was.

I want more presence from Nikk right now most of all, because of a specific observation I made; I want to see where he stands and why, before I talk further. (Basically, I don't want to taint his reaction by spelling out what I'm looking for in town/scum.)
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Post Post #1001 (isolation #22) » Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:10 pm

Post by mastina »

Also, deadline's not TOO close. We've got over a week. Plenty of time to hash things out, assuming everyone remains present at least to some extent.
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Post Post #1016 (isolation #23) » Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:14 pm

Post by mastina »

So now that Nikk's posted.
What I noticed before was.
xwing is townreading me to "bet the game" levels of town.
Egix is also townreading me rather strongly.
Nikk is also townreading me, strength hard to tell but it's there regardless.

In those three players, you have at least one scum--and I've felt it was two.
But I noticed something.
Those players who are betting the game on me being town, by proxy of having done so, need me to vote with them--they need to appeal to me. They need to get on my good side.
After I posted and ,
both
xwing and Egix had a shift in stances.

Compare posts like from xwing (not the best example, but there) and posts like from Egix.
To posts like / from xwing and posts like / from Egix.

Before my posts where I outline that scum must have bussed: suspicion heavily on Lapsa.
After my posts where I outline that scum must have bussed: suspicion on Nikk.

Nikk is the odd man out here in not having changed at all.

So I'm kinda of the opinion that we either have an xwing-Egix team (which was my original hypothesis at daystart) or a Nikk-Lapsa team.
Where xwing and Egix share an alignment, and that alignment is different from Nikk's, due to their different reactions.

But even if I'm correct in this deduction.
That doesn't exactly tell me which of the two pairs is town.
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Post Post #1026 (isolation #24) » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:44 am

Post by mastina »

In post 1020, Nikk wrote:I've been spinning am x and e team for a bit but it's mostly gut. Too late in the game for that.
1016 ses lie townie reasoning
...And now, Nikk is changing his suspicion off of my posts, too. :facepalm:

YOU'RE NOT MAKING MY JOB ANY EASIER HERE
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Post Post #1027 (isolation #25) » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:48 am

Post by mastina »

I will say that does look good from Lapsa--pretty much most of it, in fact.

Lapsa's showing what is pretty clearly original thoughts--not thoughts influenced by me, not thoughts influenced by group consensus, but thoughts which actually fly in the face of said consensus and go largely against me.

And is the only player to have done so.

Granted, I can't quite tell if xwing's/Egix's/Nikk's ORIGINAL suspicions were original thoughts, not until I've read the game (going to today), but their current suspicions are most definitively not.
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Post Post #1038 (isolation #26) » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:25 am

Post by mastina »

BTW, just airing more thoughts out at work (phoneposting makes anything beyond that difficult at best), but.
At this stage, believe it or not, I'm actually most suspicious of Egix and Nikk…
…Or rather. More aptly. Egix OR Nikk.

By that, I mean that I am INDIVIDUALLY most suspicious of them above Xwing and Lapsa, but I don't think that they're partnered. Quite the opposite, in fact; I strongly feel one's scum and the other is town. I just can't tell yet which is the town, in spite of both being my largest two suspects.
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Post Post #1039 (isolation #27) » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:20 am

Post by mastina »

I'd also like to say, my job's not any easier because everyone is waiting for me to make the first move, for me to cast the first vote.

Which, frankly, is a bit backwards. You don't want the trusted town player voting first; you want the trusted town player voting at least second, preferably even the hammer.

The reason why is self-evident: when the trusted town player casts their vote, that's it. One way or another, day ends.

So you want them to make the absolute most informed decision possible.

And the most informed decision possible is one made AFTER there's one or two votes in play.

For instance, say Xwing voted Nikk.
That may not eliminate them as a scumteam, but it DOES eliminate a Lapsa-Egix team from existing. (Granted, that's already an unlikely team, but this would eliminate it altogether.)

The same applies to anyone else voting anyone.
Xwing voting Egix? No Lapsa-Nikk.
Xwing voting Lapsa? No Egix-Nikk.
Egix voting Nikk? No Lapsa-xwing.
Egix voting Lapsa? No Nikk-xwing.
I may be missing a combo or two, but you get my point.

Waiting for me to cast the first vote means that my final decision is less informed than if I'm not the first vote.

Granted, no rush; take your time. If YOU aren't ready to vote, that's fine. If you want to hash things out with me before voting, also good! No harm done.

Just, I shouldn't be expected to get things right if I'm making the first move, especially with how much my reads are in flux.
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Post Post #1072 (isolation #28) » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:45 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1043, xwing wrote:@mastina, lapsa's POV is different from egix and i simply coz he does not treat you as conf!town..
It's more than that, though; it's also general thread presence. I can point out examples as to what I'm talking about, though suffice to say:

I am gathering data now and am processing!
In post 1050, xwing wrote:@mastina, @egix: come online and vote..
I told you that I would be voting later, after the votes were in play.

The votes are in play, but I still need time to go over things.
In post 1051, xwing wrote:@mastina, if it makes you feel better/decide faster, i can go for nikk first..
I mean.

My concern with you is how when you voted Lapsa, you didn't react to Nikk voting you.
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Post Post #1074 (isolation #29) » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:52 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1073, xwing wrote:what part of post is not a reaction to nikk's vote?
It's more like you're not at all panicked, is what I mean.
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Post Post #1076 (isolation #30) » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:54 pm

Post by mastina »

Yknow.
I actually don't think I'll be changing this.
I thought that it was Xwing/Egix or Nikk/Lapsa, and stand by that.
And I scumread Egix strongly.
And Xwing's handling of the vote has been suspect.
So I think that I'm comfortable banking on this, actually:

VOTE: xwing

If I'm wrong, I apologize.
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Post Post #1083 (isolation #31) » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:10 pm

Post by mastina »

Btw, I never lied about any theory stuff, but:
I genuinely feel this game was scumsided.
I was not only ascetic, but informed of the existence of a Town Loyal Neighborizer.
AND.
Lapsa was a Multitasking Roleblocker.

I aired my thoughts out in scumchat more, but basically:
2/4 of those traits would've been balanced. Acetic + Roleblocker, unaware of what they're against and unable to both block and kill? Balanced. Informed Ascetic? Balanced. Informed plus Roleblocker? Balanced. Multitasking Roleblocker? Balanced.

3/4 of those traits would've been a little scumsided, but still
passable
; I'd say scum win with 3/4 of those traits about 55-58% of the time. Since the margin of error is 10%, that's still acceptable since it's before the 60% cutoff.

All four? My estimate is about the setup was that scum win around 62.5% of the time, here; the town really feels like it needed
something
else and I was surprised to see the three VT claims in lylo.
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #32) » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:18 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1084, Nikk wrote:Maybe, but that shouldn't take away from the good play done in the game.
Still, though.
I have to say it does feel a little less rewarding to me than if the scum had less powers at their disposal.
In the end, while people were townreading me for both my predecessor and my own play, it's undeniable that there was some degree of townreading me from my claim, because to some extent it felt like the town
needed
my power to be town in order for it to be balanced. At least to me.
Can we get to read dead chat?
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Post Post #1092 (isolation #33) » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:23 pm

Post by mastina »

Btw props to Lapsa for the blocks. The N1 block was always gonna be on a PR, but Lapsa shifted it from being on Wagonomics to Flubbernugget, a key change in the game since it likely lead Flubber to falsely believe he had a guilty. Smart decisions there.

And, yes.

We got really, really lucky with the nightkills, in that the players we wanted to nightkill were power roles.

Also, yes.
You really did have a D1 scum lynch with no scum bussing!
Statistically speaking, that really IS a huge abnormality, especially in Normals, because the norm really IS that if you lynch scum D1 you probably have scum bussing. This game was quite unusual in that regard.
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Post Post #1094 (isolation #34) » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:32 pm

Post by mastina »

Subject: mini 2048: yeet thread (NOMPELYE)
schadd_ wrote:
In post 69, mastina wrote:So with a loyal neighborizer in this game. Against an informed ascetic. And a multitasking roleblocker.

We're still looking at a shitton of power missing. It's a bit early to tell their exact nature but I wouldn't be surprised to see a vig in here. We also likely have a second investigative role, but probably not cop, gunsmith, or neapolitan. More like similar to the Loyal Neighborizer, or Tracker, or Follower, the like.
I'd be expecting AT LEAST four total town PRs in the game, potentially even five. I'd stay on the lookout for a protective as well, though I doubt ungated since it'd be a little unfair to expect the scum if losing the roleblocker to overcome follow the cop.
is she in the nrg or something
(You already know the answer is yes. :P)
Subject: mini 2048: yeet thread (NOMPELYE)
LolWagons wrote:I really came to enjoy Nikk and xWing this game, as I did Profii and trivium last game.
It sucks to see them all on the same alignment just completely missing the mark.
For what it's worth, I second this!
Subject: mini 2048: yeet thread (NOMPELYE)
LolWagons wrote:Damn Robert just called both
I know, rite? It was quite fortunate that he was the mislynch because otherwise we'd have to have nightkilled him. :P
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Post Post #1108 (isolation #35) » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:48 am

Post by mastina »

In post 1105, Slaxx wrote:OH

And Mastina saying both scum bussed was probably something town-her would do but it should have raised flags because
1. We fought like hell for that wagon and
2. You had an unclear directing your lynchpool

I think that’s it for real now.
It was indeed exactly the stance that I'd have as town.

I'd probably change it later in the game as town rather than doubling down, though. (But, hard to say; you never know.)
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Post Post #1111 (isolation #36) » Tue Apr 23, 2019 2:31 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1110, mhsmith0 wrote:
In post 0, schadd_ wrote:surviving: Lapsa was a mafia goon
is this inaccurate from the opening post then?
Correct, it's an inaccuracy.
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