Seriously though, why not? Who singleton reveals depends on whether we're doing this plan, and we can only do the plan if a majority of people actually think he's scum.
Well we don't know what tools scum have to mess with us. If we policy lynch him for finding scum we also remove info and content. This is better discussion to have TMR when it actually happens.
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Post #1282 (isolation #216) » Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Postby OkaPoka »
In post 1280, apthet wrote:I think given my earlier attitude towards GuiltyLion it's fairly ridiculous that I'm "implicated" by him. Anyway, I think enigma is the best vote today but I'm definitely going to look back and read the game a little bit.
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Post #1287 (isolation #219) » Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:08 pm
Postby OkaPoka »
+ getting the numbers for a me lynch is a lot harder because simply, less people would be for it.
most people had gl in some form or another in their poe pool, so you bouncing to me would be questionable and probably get you cop-checked + the risk of gl being lynched is still there
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Post #1306 (isolation #223) » Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:34 pm
Postby OkaPoka »
In post 1132, Enigma wrote:uhh this last minute wagon on me is absolute bs wherever its come from
yes my activity this day has been meh so far, and im not going to argue against that - but if you are going to vote me make a serious case, and make sure other townies make a serious case too, rather than useless jumps onto me because this will provide nothing useful for town when i flip
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Post #1320 (isolation #229) » Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:57 pm
Postby OkaPoka »
the thing is 6/7 of us are town
so i dont feel like poe'ing
or townhunting
with that being said
the pools of people id like to resolve in order would be like this
<apthet,engima>
<rc, nim>
<sky, s_s>
pedit: i feel like sky is town but hasnt really been subject to actual questioning so yeah
somebody needs to scumread her and actually generate some good content for everyone else to read
- (Being widely townread) I think that Smart is a townread for many people and I think he's taking that position in a way that makes me more confident that he's town. One thing that I noticed is that he specifically says that he's "obvious town" and I think that mafia would likely be a little more careful about that status and not want to lose it.
- (RC interactions) If Smart is scum, then it seems to me like his big fear would be RC (because now we know that they cannot be scum together). It doesn't seem like he would want to come out of the gate on Day 2 being combative towards him. Also, there's that question that just cannot be avoided as to why Smart would highlight RC's ability to read him if he's scum. These are the things that are making me think he's town.
- (Read on me) Aside from interactions with RC, I did find it weird that he decides that the reason that he decides to downgrade his read from me as obvious town to me as a sorting priority is that he thinks I'm a skilled player. It's definitely a big difference between Day 1, where he stubbornly had me as his top townread in the face of multiple questioning. I think I can understand opinions changing after a night phase though.
- (GL interactions) I also think that Smart's interactions with GL were definitely plausible as a partner, but I think his series of posts after the hammer up until start of Day 2 were also pretty town. Especially this:
In post 1226, Something_Smart wrote:I'm actually kinda annoyed about that hammer now, I don't think GL was the right wagon today at all.
Certainly could be fake, but it fits in the context of his thought process and I think it's likely to come from town.
Skygazer:
Spoiler:
- (RC townread) A part of my suspicion regarding Skygazer was that early on, she said that she thought RC was town, and RC responded that he expected her to be a "paranoid ass" and Skygazer said "Wait, do you want me to be a paranoid ass?" Or something to that effect. I thought that was a very weird response, and I guess this is less in my mind now that she's alluding to some role-related reasons to be not paranoid about it.
I think this is actually very noteworthy (!!!!) for the fact that it seemingly means that RC might necessarily have to be town. Either Sky is scum, which means that RC is town, or Sky is town, which means that she's not lying about her reasons not to vote RC.
- (GL interactions) So Skygazer said that she was reluctant to vote GL here:
In post 1204, Skygazer wrote:still think gl is p low info but w/ 20 hours left i'll swing that way if needed
which was the reason I originally said that they were not likely to be partners. I thought that Skygazer would have to either plan out that series of posts or spontaneously decide to bus GL. If they are partners, I think that the first scenario is much more likely than the second, and I think that these two posts could certainly be faked but I just think it's likely that they aren't. I will note that this
In post 655, GuiltyLion wrote:Sky I could go either way on, probably need a flip or two first
is a minor red flag.
- (Day 2) I think that Skygazer, if mafia, isn't in a super good position, and I think she has to take the wagons that she can get. I do think it's somewhat notable that she is the most vote-happy currently. Originally the "nice scumclaim" post was perfectly fitting into this idea that I had of her, but this was shaken by the fact that she seemingly went into my posts, read through them and found a reason to unvote.
Enigma:
Spoiler:
- (GL interactions) I think that this
In post 876, Enigma wrote:ehh i dont what i had that let me try just being original
town
oka
rc
gl
nimueh = ss = apthnet
stk
sky
scum
i don't even like my sky read that much, but mainly because it seems like she is just around and posting but not really getting anywhere.
is a very comfortable place to put a partner. Just above the null pile but not too much above the null pile.
- (Day 1 wagon) Like I said before, I think Enigma as scum is more the careful slippery type (similarly to GL I'm thinking). This also seems like a pretty suspicious reaction to a wagon:
In post 1132, Enigma wrote:yes my activity this day has been meh so far, and im not going to argue against that - but if you are going to vote me make a serious case, and make sure other townies make a serious case too, rather than useless jumps onto me because this will provide nothing useful for town when i flip
Enigma also voted Oka "out of self-preservation" which I think actually could be a post that comes from town. I do think that Enigma is a very plausible partner though and he has been playing a very similar game to GL.
Me:
Spoiler:
I agree that it is likely for GL's partner to be bussing him. I also think it's possible that his partner was not. In any case, I think you can agree that I have the foresight to understand how bussing should go in this situation. To give you an insight into my thought process at the time:
I had made it clear that my two top reads for mafia were Skygazer and GL, Skygazer more so. Here's what happened.
- I voted Skygazer.
- People went off on me for being bad. RC specifically said that I was making "scumpost after scumpost after scumpost."
- Upset at hearing him say this, I decided to go off and sulk in silence until I was prodded.
- When I came back (having continued to read actively in my absence) the town wasn't particularly cohesive and several people were thrown around for voting (Enigma, you (Oka), me, GL).
So in this case, I have several options. If I'm scum, I either want to resign to GL dying and position myself as favorably as possible or do my best to make GL not die. What I did was vote GL without any further justification, right before Nimueh told me that Skygazer wasn't getting wagoned and what I would go to as an alternative. I responded with a lighthearted "nice timing!" Laughs were had. This means that if I'm scum, I'm either
- Not trying very hard to plan for the future
- Actively making a decision that will weaken my position later so I can make this exact argument right now in this post right here.
I think it makes far more sense to do any of the following:
- Fully commit and try to actively get GL killed and position myself into a more active and controlling role in the group
- Stubbornly stick to Skygazer and try to get people to join me
- Switch to another wagon altogether. I do think that saying something like "well, I don't know about it, but I do trust RC so I guess I'll vote Oka" is not as far out of the question as you think, and that Enigma was another possible option).
That's how I view the situation anyway.
Scum didn’t bus in TRO, which was also or in TMBoS, both micros. Do you know any micros where this occurred?
In post 1321, Something_Smart wrote:I really don't feel like I'm qualified to sort Sky or apthet confidently enough to bet the game on it. I'm pretty sure Nimueh is town, I'd like to think I'm pretty obviously town at this point. This game has been so low activity that townhunting is very likely the best way to go.
In post 1330, Skygazer wrote:actually yeah nim associations are rlly bad, like she had GL as their strongest SR but only hopped on to vote whenever he was bein wagoned (for "tone" lol), nd i'd like to imagine one of enigma/GL would make an effort to be more active if they were s/s
i'll follow RC on this because he also seems to have an ID on nim
VOTE: nim
Yeah, this doesn’t even make sense. I was second on Lion. In what world does that constitute “hopping on”? And the bad toneread was an earlier post. I had other reasons later for sr him. His AtE about the replacement thing, then doing pretty much nothing after that.
I also thought him putting me at L-2, was opportunistic.
Another reason why I’m town. In Topaz scum!Flubber put town!Tris at L-2.
how is one piece of anecdotal evidence a point for you being town?
literally all i have to do is find one game where scum put there own scumbuddy at l2 and your point is invalid?
In post 1330, Skygazer wrote:actually yeah nim associations are rlly bad, like she had GL as their strongest SR but only hopped on to vote whenever he was bein wagoned (for "tone" lol), nd i'd like to imagine one of enigma/GL would make an effort to be more active if they were s/s
i'll follow RC on this because he also seems to have an ID on nim
VOTE: nim
Yeah, this doesn’t even make sense. I was second on Lion. In what world does that constitute “hopping on”? And the bad toneread was an earlier post. I had other reasons later for sr him. His AtE about the replacement thing, then doing pretty much nothing after that.
I also thought him putting me at L-2, was opportunistic.
Another reason why I’m town. In Topaz scum!Flubber put town!Tris at L-2.
how is one piece of anecdotal evidence a point for you being town?
literally all i have to do is find one game where scum put there own scumbuddy at l2 and your point is invalid?
It’s extremely unlikely. Didn’t say it never happens. Can you judge most people’s scumplay by Varsoon’s for example? That’s how RC knew Caracially was town by offering to be lynched but that would have been NIA for Varsoon. Ditto for Mastina.
so then
how do i know that this is your town meta since you are a secret alt ; )
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Post #1420 (isolation #249) » Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:37 pm
Postby OkaPoka »
we live in a society where everything is fake and anyone can do anything so its all pointless because anything is possible by any alignment and reads dont matter this game is just a game of improving chance
no i didnt iso u nor do i feel like it
but i do feel like ur main is decently well known where if someone says ur name, people will have a picture of what that entails
