Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)

[tris]

VC 2.02

Sashaddin (4):

bob3141 887, Ausuka 908, Inferno390 991, Garmr 1022

Garmr (1):

Sashaddin 860

Not Voting:

Exilon, High Risk Gamble, Lil Uzi Vert, u r a person 2, Egix96, skitter30 1007

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-05-17 19:00:00)

[Sashaddin]

VOTE: Sash
How do you feel now?

I think that if you are voting me on the basis of that single post, you are indeed scum occupying the 4th slot... Now I know you were scumreading me before this, but it looks opportunistic as f. I think you are just trying to make me talk so you can pin me with whatever you want to see.

When you want to kill your dog, you say it has rabies

. That a French saying...
You sure act like town a lot, but some of your actions and words give me a bad feeling about you. About your play, I mean.

[u r a person 2]

Could town please unvote Sash, k thanks

[Sashaddin]

let's just lynch sash

^^^^^ bad reaction
especially in the event of town!sash

I'm town and I have the same reaction.

Debatable

Glad it is, that means I can play the game longer because being the first night kill always sucks.

also channel is a bizzare af nk tbh

I thought Garmr would be nightkilled.

Me too tbh. But if you thought i'd be the night kill why are you voting me fraudulent slip?

@Skitter: It seems both Garmr and I thought he wouldn't survive the first night. How is my assumption that bad if the supposed target thought my way too?

[Garmr]

I will be honest I think I'm the best townie in this game at the moment so I may be a tad bit biased.

[Inferno390]

UNVOTE:

[Inferno390]

Yeah Bob is town here.
I could see Sash/HRG. In that case the third is UR2?
VOTE: Sash

What changed your read on me from certain scum to only maybe scum?

Your posting today feels very natrual, which is making me second guess my read on you.

[Inferno390]

ok. from ur pov your town. how do u think scum are interacting with ur wagon rn? are they voting you? staying off? both?

At that time my wagon was Skitter, Bob, Inferno.

I have Skitter and Inferno as town, and Bob as tepid. I think scum are ready to pounce the 4th and 5th slot, but since Bob is already on the wagon, if he's scum maybe only one will jump on.
I have no problem with Skitter and Inferno voting me for their respective reasons, but the way Bob has looked at my slot since Day 2 I begin to feel wary of him. Bob thinks a lot like Garmr lately...

VOTE: Sash
How do you feel now?

I have to agree with Sash here. This was a terrible terrible vote.

[Garmr]

ok. from ur pov your town. how do u think scum are interacting with ur wagon rn? are they voting you? staying off? both?

At that time my wagon was Skitter, Bob, Inferno.

I have Skitter and Inferno as town, and Bob as tepid. I think scum are ready to pounce the 4th and 5th slot, but since Bob is already on the wagon, if he's scum maybe only one will jump on.
I have no problem with Skitter and Inferno voting me for their respective reasons, but the way Bob has looked at my slot since Day 2 I begin to feel wary of him. Bob thinks a lot like Garmr lately...

VOTE: Sash
How do you feel now?

I have to agree with Sash here. This was a terrible terrible vote.

Can you say why? I mean I have a scum read on sash and it's been clear. for a while. Is it cause I jumped on when he was giving premature scum reads to people joining the wagon.

I think scum are ready to pounce the 4th and 5th slot, but since Bob is already on the wagon, if he's scum maybe only one will jump on.

This reads defensive and trying to threaten people from jumping on him. That's like a invitation for me.

A bad vote would be a unvote from sash in my opinion.

[Inferno390]

Because the way vote was phrased is an attempt to poke Sash and frustrate him. If you already think he’s scum, there’s no reason for the little comment you made at the end. It’s picking on your scumread disguised as posturing.
Also, I see what you did there. And ain’t it funny how innocent a scum slip it is.

[Garmr]

Because the way vote was phrased is an attempt to poke Sash and frustrate him. If you already think he’s scum, there’s no reason for the little comment you made at the end. It’s picking on your scumread disguised as posturing.[/b]
Also, I see what you did there.

And ain’t it funny how innocent a scum slip it is.

Yeah it was a poke to see his reaction. I feel the games stale and I want to get things moving.

Also just to make sure, you know I was poking fun at you for unvoting sash right?

[u r a person 2]

Garmr, if you're town, I think you're making this game a bit more confused than I'd generally like it to be.

If you're scum, you're playing out of your mind well, I think. I'm not voting here today

[Sashaddin]

Yeah it was a poke to see his reaction. I feel the games stale and I want to get things moving.

What did my reaction tell you?
Were you expecting it?
Will it change your opinion of me, even only temporarily?

I think the game is stale because half the players are posting often and the other is not. Not much to do about this, eh?

[Exilon]

So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?

I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town (876)
URAP2: Garmr is town (343, 418), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum (286)
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town (110) and CDB town (285)
Ausuka: CDB is town (212, 800)
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him...

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this.

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?

I read CDB as town when he was discussing with urap2, btw

Garmr is... difficult to analyse, personally. There's something in his tone that I feel could come from scum but his actions and pushes signal something more town like to me, so I don't think I'm going to be able to confidently sort him based on that alone. I don't think it's going to happen today, either.

yeah, do think about it Cause being wishy washy doesn't lead to town wins. Who could benefit the most from having their townread confirmed or their scumread disproved via NK?

@sash
Well you could follow up on this

[Sashaddin]

Garmr is... difficult to analyse, personally. There's something in his tone that I feel could come from

scum

but his actions and pushes signal something more

town

like to me, so I don't think I'm going to be able to confidently sort him based on that alone. I don't think it's going to happen today, either.

I feel his tone coming from

town

but I think his actions and pushes are more like

scum

to me. (thanks for the phrasing I borrowed)
I think I see him exactly the opposite of of you, but in the end we're as confused about him in our own ways.
I had a weird

feeling

about him from the start, it's been less and more present along Day 1, but I don't think I like what I'm

seeing

Day 2.

Is that coherent enough to be understood? I haven't drank all of my coffees yet.

[Sashaddin]

yeah, do think about it Cause being wishy washy doesn't lead to town wins. Who could benefit the most from having their townread confirmed or their scumread disproved via NK?

I'm a nervous, unsure, paranoiac type of player (see the hammer dance). I'm afraid to make mistakes as town (only rolled scum twice and I found it way easier) so I guess I'm naturally wishy-washy.
To answer the question, I think the one who would benefit the most is the vocal type of player who pretends having strong reads, not the lurker.
Townread confirmed: a scum who townreadsduring his next night NK target willl get town cred
Scumread disproved: maybe a scum misreads on purpose a guy to appear clumsy town, I never thought of this before. Blame it on my lack of scum experience...

[Sashaddin]

I'm a nervous, unsure, paranoiac type of player (see the hammer dance).

In retrospect, I don't know why I typed this, this hammer was the one I was most... comfortable(?) with. But I am still nervous, unsure and paranoid.

[Exilon]

yeah, do think about it Cause being wishy washy doesn't lead to town wins. Who could benefit the most from having their townread confirmed or their scumread disproved via NK?

I'm a nervous, unsure, paranoiac type of player (see the hammer dance). I'm afraid to make mistakes as town (only rolled scum twice and I found it way easier) so I guess I'm naturally wishy-washy.
To answer the question, I think the one who would benefit the most is the vocal type of player who pretends having strong reads, not the lurker.
Townread confirmed: a scum who townreadsduring his next night NK target willl get town cred
Scumread disproved: maybe a scum misreads on purpose a guy to appear clumsy town, I never thought of this before. Blame it on my lack of scum experience...

I like this but specifically, in this case, what players in this game could benefit the most from having their TR/SR conf/disproved by the NK?

[Exilon]

Meanwhile, in the spirit of keeping things moving and flowing;

I'd like to follow up on when I said I had someone I wanted to take a closer look to.

Refer back to my 113 where I felt the wagon on CDB was weird.
I wanna focus more deeply on Egix.

Building on that post, and now adding to it, 121 is an answer from CDB which I find to be quite right and interesting.

Egix addresses it in 167, by just dismissing it, arguing that CDB just thinks his logic is wrong. I think this is very poor and doesn't even try to properly address the assumptions behind CDB's argument, while instead tackling easier topics to divert attention from it.

But two posts prior in 165, egix is buddying to CDB and setting up a RuiRui vote, as well as pointing the finger to cby for being lurky.

I get

Spoiler: 174

UNVOTE: Egix

I'd pretty much convinced myself as of my own #121 ('Egix decided he'd done a clever and useful reactions test, therefore assumed one of the reactions to it must have been from scum' is a reasonably common town thought process and the one that made the most sense to explain #104), and his responses just now all fit with a pretty solid 'bullheaded town' mindset. I think scum would have been more likely to concede me a point over #121, but Egix is sticking with his (misguided) thought process while still being able to open-mindedly address other issues like my calling out of RuiRui. Not lynching here for now.

VOTE: RuiRui

;

and I get what CDB is going for here and reading him as bullheaded town but I'm not so sure right now especially considering where Egix decided to go instead (inactives). Nvm the fact he manages to keep his SR on CDB and keep his vote on him while at the same time quoting him for truth (in 165, as mentioned previously) which I find quite ironic.

Like I'm not saying scum can't have genuine scumreads but if you're not sure of who's scummy (as Egix had stated previously), you're probably not going to give as much credit to your top suspicion's scumreads.

By this point Sash's wagon starts picking up and Egix points out in176 that he doesn't see sash as scum.

205 and 206 are extreme fencesitting (still no unvote from CDB), and currently read to me as someone who is trying to set up a move to an eventual Rui wagon;

bob points this out in 227 which I find very good.
233 is just amazing where egix follows CDB's suggestion and moves his vote over to Rui. See how his reasoning didn't actually evolve from 205 and 206?
There's posts of setup and then his main suspect, as per his words, once again says something that Egix quotes and follows.

347 sees Egix completely drop his SR on CDB without even a single mention to that change, or where it came from. In here, the main SRs are Rui and CBY, and suddenly Urap2 shows up as "third, I guess..."

But then Egix also drops this read on Urap2 in 503

In the eve of these great wagons, Egix changes a read on Inferno in 603; in 702 however he leaves quite explicit that RuiRui is the "closest thing to a scumread", which seems contrarian to his opinion on Inferno which at the very least had more substance to it than the reasoning he had for ruirui.

Jump forward another 200 or so posts and in 909 you get what could be an attempt to further analyse Inferno? 910 also does the same, but it's funny because it seems to me that Egix misreads Ausuka here, as Ausuka points out soon after. Egix doesn't bother following up on this.

There is some back and forth here between Egix and Inferno which isn't really accusatory in any way and is very dialogical between one or the other (see 959, and omce again I'm left to wonder if the scumread on Inferno was also dropped without real mention.

959 is also an example of a very empty post, but at least is consistent with staying on the rui wagon than the sash wagon - if Egix had been voting on Rui based on information and compromise as opposed to Rui being the closest he has to a scumread.

In summary, Egix's reads have been made for show, are non-commital, weak, and inconsistent between themselves. His voting (and lack thereof) supports a scum agenda.

Therefore,
VOTE: Egix96


Oh btw he hasn't posted yet day2 so I want to see him scumread himself.

[Sashaddin]

CDB was only voted in wagons 1.02 and 1.03, I don't think we can learn much from this.

Gamrr iso was hard to read because he sometimes spells CDB as CBD, making it hard to get a continuous stream. But he had CDB as scum for a while towards the middle of Day 1. I don't think Garmr falls into my first category, and I don't see why Garmr would want to appear "clumsy town". So I have to push Garmr out of those who woujld benefit.
URAP2: doesn't mention CDB in any significant way. Nothing to see here I guess
Inferno: I think he saw CDB as town, but doesn't mention it much, I have to read between the lines to get an idea here. I don't think Inferno would gain much from the NK.
Skitter: Has CDB as possible TR then has no hesitation about her read. So far, Skitter has the best to get from that NK. Problem is that I am TR Skitter...
HRG: from 700, he views as town. I don't think he benefits from anything however.
Ausuka: Has CDB has town, but not strong enough or vocal enough to benefit imo.
Bob, Garmr and Exilon had no reads or interaction with CDB when I posted 945

In conclusion, I think that following this idea, only Skitter benefits somewhat from the NK, but it's not a clear case either. Why would she choose CDB over all her other reads? I didn't not perceive any soft crumble from CDB...

I don't think I got all I could from this, but iso diving is not an exact science...
@Exilon: Do you agree with my analysis?

[Garmr]

Bob, Garmr and Exilon had no reads or interaction with CDB when I posted 945

Isn't that a day 2 post through did you mispost it.

[Sashaddin]

I was associating Garmr and Bob in a way, I find interesting your case on Egix though. I'll re-read your post after my lunch break, I just had time to skim over it after that long post I just made.

[Sashaddin]

Bob, Garmr and Exilon had no reads or interaction with CDB when I posted 945

Isn't that a day 2 post through did you mispost it.

Dunno, I have to eat and figure out what you mean in 1 hour.

[bob3141]

Sash I actualy find you post 1044 a little weird.

Are you trying to determine who would benifit from the CDB NK? Yet you seem to only going into what others thought of him. In fact it more arguement who CDB would have killed if he was mafia rather than him being a dead townie.

[Garmr]

Bob, Garmr and Exilon had no reads or interaction with CDB when I posted 945

Isn't that a day 2 post through did you mispost it.

Dunno, I have to eat and figure out what you mean in 1 hour.

CBD is dead by this post so how can anyone have interactions with anyone never mind it's not really important sigh.