Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)


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Post Post #22 (isolation #0) » Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:49 pm

Post by Exilon »

We're not yet out of rvs right
Garmr's town read on me is solid, it's 100% correct

VOTE: u r a person 2
How does one shorten this name??
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Post Post #25 (isolation #1) » Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:59 pm

Post by Exilon »

Because i wasn't sure if we were out of rvs and wanted to be on time to be part of it

Is that scummy?
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Post Post #33 (isolation #2) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:56 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 27, cbynumber wrote:
In post 25, Exilon wrote:Because i wasn't sure if we were out of rvs and wanted to be on time to be part of it

Is that scummy?
It's like you're making sure it's ok to cast a random vote so you don't have to come up with real ~reasons~
So, yeah.
does this mean your stance will change when i start voting with real reasons?

Sounds fair.

No but srsly is rvs over now /s
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Post Post #34 (isolation #3) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:57 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 30, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I’ll have to double check but this seems to be Exil’s second game in over a decade. The first one being a Newbie and currently ongoing. I can buy him not knowing if RVS is over or not.
This is correct! I also had a itch to scratch
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Post Post #57 (isolation #4) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:50 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 31, Ausuka wrote:
In post 18, skitter30 wrote:
In post 15, Ausuka wrote:VOTE: ruirui
This is the kind of rvs post i can see scum making ^^^^

(i'm not explicitly calling her scum for this rn, but noting that it comes from scum more than town imo)
VOTE: skitter

it's literally just a naked vote and my standard entrance. why are you not explicitly calling me scum for it? if you think it comes from scum more than town, and the average player has a 1/4 chance to be scum, that's great odds on page 1. it feels as if you're afraid of entering a confrotantion so early more than anything else.
Feels like poor reasoning and a bit forced in order to justify a vote on skitter.
The question here seems unnecessary and loaded (assumes Skitter finds Ausuka scummy, which is incorrect), especially considering that skitter's own bolded words invalidate that same question.

This is what stood out to me the most so far.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Ausuka
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Post Post #59 (isolation #5) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:55 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 36, Inferno390 wrote:VOTE: Exilon
I’m off-put by the tone here. Seems weird.
Skitter feels pushy
Sash feels reachy
Egix is NAI I think
To note, are you voting because you feel I'm scummy, to assert some pressure, or something else?

What do you mean by Skitter being pushy? If anything, he's the one being pushed by like two or three different people (by his post 39, he was answering CDB, RuiRui, and Ausuka lol)
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Post Post #60 (isolation #6) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:56 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 53, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I like Deli deciding not to further engage Skitter. I think attempting to create a theory or policy debate there is more likely to come from town than scum. Scum are more likely to want to cast suspicion on Skitter and/or anyone who shares her same sentiments on voting there.
Is there an acronym for "quoted for absolute agreement"
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Post Post #65 (isolation #7) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:06 am

Post by Exilon »

I knew I remembered something like that.
ChannelDelibird wrote:Exilon, I assume you're just about to call me scum as well along with Ausuka, given that Ausuka's reason is pretty much exactly why I voted for skitter too. (And honestly rereading Ausuka's post just makes me want to vote skitter again, even though my brain knows that she's already responded to it in a sigh-and-stop-voting way.)

@Bob: You don't need to name the player you're unvoting, no. Nice to have you aboard, though be warned as we're not in a specific Newbie game there may be some learning-as-you-go to do.
I'm not... I read them very differently. Ausuka's reason was "why didn't you explicitly call me scum?";

Your was "why didn't you change your vote, you kept it on someone random"

Here I'll quote your post for reference
In post 18, skitter30 wrote:
Why wouldn't you vote for Ausuka here instead of keeping your vote on a random person who hadn't yet posted?
I think it's an extremely fair question, in stark contrast to Ausuka's.
Moreover, your later interactions came across as townie to me.

Regarding Ausuka, I'll have to see the following answers.



@Skitter: So sorry swear I have you as a she on my notes
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Post Post #70 (isolation #8) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:58 am

Post by Exilon »

I didn't say your point was stupid (and I didn't think it was, either) :/
In post 67, Ausuka wrote:If you think my point is so stupid explain how to me please.

Skitter says my vote comes from scum more often than town. This to me is a scumread, how could it not be? If you think someone's only post so far is more common from scum than from town, you think that person's scum. I would expect her reasoning to be used as part of a push on me. She then goes on to say, in the same post, she's not "explicitly" calling me scum for it. This I think isn't genuine, because I think that if skitter sees my post as coming from scum more often than town, she wouldn't have any hesitation to call me scum for it, right?
Why not? I think she just explained it. I think you bring up a relevant point - why the hesitation - but what you seem to be missing and I didn't initially, is that there's no hesitation at all! She recognizes a probability, probes, but know it's not enough to call you scum. So she doesn't.
How on earth does the bolded invalidate my question? She's saying that she's not calling me scum in the section that you bolded; I'm asking why she's not calling me scum.
I mean, if she doesn't find you scum, then she's not going to call you scum. It's why I said the question was loaded - to ask it, you have to assume she finds your post scummy. But that assumption is incorrect.

I can't explain this in any other way.
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Post Post #71 (isolation #9) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:00 am

Post by Exilon »

EBWOP: "to ask it, you have to assume she finds your post scummy in itself, and not for meta / chance reasons."
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Post Post #80 (isolation #10) » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:38 pm

Post by Exilon »

Hum.
In post 59, Exilon wrote:
In post 36, Inferno390 wrote:VOTE: Exilon
I’m off-put by the tone here. Seems weird.
Skitter feels pushy
Sash feels reachy
Egix is NAI I think
To note, are you voting because you feel I'm scummy, to assert some pressure, or something else?

What do you mean by Skitter being pushy? If anything, he's the one being pushed by like two or three different people (by his post 39, he was answering CDB, RuiRui, and Ausuka lol)
Please address, thanks

Like I get from your post 73 that you think I'm scum, but I do wanna know what changed between then and now and if then I was already scummy in your eyes. And also a reply to the other question.
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Post Post #111 (isolation #11) » Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:24 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 92, skitter30 wrote:hey exilon, do you have a read on me?
You're reading town to me
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Post Post #113 (isolation #12) » Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:48 am

Post by Exilon »

This sudden voting on CDB feels weird to me. Starting with this;


In post 94, Garmr wrote:
In post 28, ChannelDelibird wrote:
VOTE: skitter

Why wouldn't you vote for Ausuka here instead of keeping your vote on a random person who hadn't yet posted?

I literally held off shifting from my rvs to skitter as well. By that same accord would I be scummy as well if not why am I different if so why didn't you mention me?
Something doesn't make sense here. You seem to be referring to post

Spoiler: Post20
In post 20, Garmr wrote:
In post 18, skitter30 wrote:
In post 15, Ausuka wrote:VOTE: ruirui
This is the kind of rvs post i can see scum making ^^^^

(i'm not explicitly calling her scum for this rn, but noting that it comes from scum more than town imo)
Personally I wouldn't of put this point down. You could of left it to see if someone did have that reaction and have them sort out their alignment.

The fact you put that there feels like your cutting off a potential conversation line and seems a bit like a preemptive defence. I'm still deciding if that's scummy or null so :igmeou:


but that seems different. you were still deciding if skitter was scummy or not for it. So that's the answer to the question. so what's your question to CDB about, exactly?

Then in post 96,, you say that in the interaction between skitter and CDB, it came across to you that CDB was scummy.

So that's the first vote;




Then in post 95 bob says CDB is suspicious, then 97 says urap2 feels scummy as well.
But then votes CDB in the very next post, right after Garmr does. This happened 3 minutes later to his other post, and 4 other minutes after Garmr's vote.
It's almost as if Garmr's vote caused bob to vote too.





The third vote comes later from Egix, who in

Spoiler: Post 104
In post 104, Egix96 wrote:
In post 39, skitter30 wrote: i don't particularly like this post, the first line kinda feels like you felt the need to randomly share that you're town which feels a little ????? and meh
In post 40, u r a person 2 wrote: yikes

VOTE: egix
In post 44, ChannelDelibird wrote: If you were town, I would find it pretty hard to believe that you were genuinely astonished to be so (you know what the odds are every time you join a game!), especially given that apparently you've been scum in other game formats anyway. Maybe there'd be a "huh, OK then!" to yourself upon reading your role PM but caring so much that you brought it into the thread in such an overblown "wow, can you believe it!?" sort of way? No, it doesn't feel right.
I made my opening line OTT on purpose because I knew that people would react to it, and I hoped to gauge people's alignments early on based on said reactions. So:

- skitter's reaction reads slightly towny to me, my gut tells me it's more like awkward town than waffly scum

- urap2's is null I'm afraid

- But CDB feels like he's being too aggressive here. Not sure if the overexplaininess (my laptop redlines that, is that even a word?) is normal for him but to me it feels like scum taking the bait. Like, if he's scum, he's probably thinking "oh, awkward town, better push on him".


goes back to his initial post, and scumreads CDB based on his reaction to that post, for being overaggressive. Then supposedly ctaches up to the rest of the game, posts about a different subject, and then votes him 3 posts later, without more reason.
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Post Post #114 (isolation #13) » Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:22 am

Post by Exilon »

Regarding 390, some things also don't add up.

Post 73he says Exi and urap2 are scum team.
Post 79 is an ISO analysis.

In response, Post 81 Urap2 asks him that if he thought skitter was still scummy, why wasn't she included in post 73.

He seems to misunderstand the question and answers in Post 83with "because she's scumreads independent of Ur2 and Exi", which only makes sense if you're assuming there's more than one anti-town team, which .... okay, but it seems like a slip up, because, wouldn't wording it as "Exi and urap2 are scum together" be faster, more organic, and natural?

Meanwhile, in Post 82and 84, 390 answers my post 80, where I ask "Why is skitter pushy? She's the one being pushed"; and what amounts to "what's your case on me".

390 answers that, initially, I was the scummiest, so the vote went to me. Then after urap2 called out that post (see post 74), that was seen as chainsaw and therefore we were a team. And that's all there is in regards to a case on me.

But this also doesn't add up, that can't be the only reason; after all, urap2 called out a post in where 390 also scumread *other* people. So that can't be the only thing that links us together; and yet, 390 never presents anything else. This leads to a contradiction:

If urap2's attack is a chainsaw defense and links him as scum to others accused, then I can't be the only one linked.
But if that were true, then Skitter couldn't have been independently scumread.


Then, in post 88,
390 not only backpedals on Skitter by saying she's not as pushy as he thought; he latches on to Ausuka and seems to mirror my own thoughts. (skitter = good; ausuka = bad) Not only is this mirrored, it's not exactly current topic; so it's probably a safe latch.

Post 89 is about Uzi and it seems out of place. Would anyone here not know that from the getgo and keep it in mind? Why bring attention to it? I feel this is a scumtell. It feels like a guilty attempt at strawing closer to town, after that string of posts. I agree with Uzi, it feels very LAMIST (I just learned a new abbreviation).

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Inferno390
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Post Post #129 (isolation #14) » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:14 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 116, skitter30 wrote:
In post 112, skitter30 wrote:i'm getting some buddying-y vibes from you


@exilon
I don't know what kind of comment you want on this

also i dont' think that scum!inferno really thinks to randomly make that post about uzi there really
My point was precisely that it wasn't rational (let me post this here), it was emotional ("I want to post about something else that lets me feel closer to town")

Anyway, does it invalidate the remaining case?
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Post Post #130 (isolation #15) » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:21 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 118, Ausuka wrote:UNVOTE:

ok I thought about it and I think I understand what skitter is saying now.

@Exilon: I still don't understand what about my push you don't think comes from town here.
Well, like I said:
Feels like poor reasoning and a bit forced in order to justify a vote on skitter.
The question here seems unnecessary and loaded (assumes Skitter finds Ausuka scummy, which is incorrect), especially considering that skitter's own bolded words invalidate that same question.
So I thought it was written with intent to vote rather than genuine analysis and didn't give him much of a benefit of the doubt.

From your answers and my own analysis, feels to me like you went in with an assumption that wasn't exactly correct (but legitimizes your push imo), and it seems like you've come to an understanding. As such, I'm not scum reading it anymore.
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Post Post #132 (isolation #16) » Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:15 pm

Post by Exilon »

a) I don't agree nor disagree? I mean you're sharing how you feel, so it's true to you. How am I to say what you feel is wrong? Maybe I'm missing something

b) oh I get it when you say scum!inferno you mean his metagame specifically.

c) I don't understand part of this. The contradiction not being a scum tell I get, but could you elaborate further on incorrect assumptions?

Logic oriented is my approach to mafia in general. I don't think I have enough forum mafia games to have a specific scum or town style.
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Post Post #138 (isolation #17) » Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:22 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 137, cbynumber wrote:Exilon is still scum, btw. Why would he make an in depth post in about how CDB's wagon is 'weird' only to go and case someone else immediately?
Because it was something I noticed and felt it was important to address. I also wanted to address Inferno390.
Where's the problem here exactly
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Post Post #141 (isolation #18) » Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:40 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 133, skitter30 wrote:a) eh fair enough. i do feel a bit buddied (namely in how you were defending me earlier) tho

b) yeah town!inferno is notation for 'inferno when he's playing as town'; scum!inferno is notation for 'inferno when he's playing as scum', and so on (pr!inferno is 'inferno playing as pr' etc)

c) you said this:
In post 114, Exilon wrote:He seems to misunderstand the question and answers in Post 83with "because she's scumreads independent of Ur2 and Exi",
which only makes sense if you're assuming there's more than one anti-town team,
which .... okay, but it seems like a slip up, because, wouldn't wording it as "Exi and urap2 are scum together" be faster, more organic, and natural?
which i understood to mean that you're objecting to the fact that inferno was not scumreading me as being part of a team with his other scumreads urap and exi. i.e. that you think having scumreads but not reading all of them together as a team is problematic - that independant scumreads aren't a thing

i'm saying that i fundementally disagree with that (especially at this stage of the game) - i think it's entirely possible to scumread multiple people without viewing them holistically as a team

(fwiw mini normals are not allowed to have multiball these days btw)

what i mean by incorrect assumption is that you used that to build your case, and i'm saying that i disagree with this pov to begin with

As in: if there's only one team of scum, and if you think three people are scum, you're not going to say "the scum team is these 2 people", right? That's how I read it.

I understand later this point is expanded into "these 2 people are scum by association" (=they're a team); but the justification of this (it's chainsaw) also applies to skitter, whom he said he was reading scum for something else. (which leads to the contradiction). Later he removes scumread on skitter. But the accusation of chainsaw defense remains.

So he says urap2 is scummy because his attack is chainsaw-y, which would make me and skitter is scumbuddies. Since we know he thinks skitter is townie and I'm scum, this can't be the only reason why he feels scummy about me. But he hasn't elaborated on what it could be.

In post 134, Inferno390 wrote:
In post 129, Exilon wrote:
In post 116, skitter30 wrote:also i dont' think that scum!inferno really thinks to randomly make that post about uzi there really
My point was precisely that it wasn't rational (let me post this here), it was emotional ("I want to post about something else that lets me feel closer to town")
I don’t like this. I feel like it’s circular logic. And what about my post was not rational, exactly?
I don't think there's anything circular about it. I'll try to express the idea differently:

The timing of the post felt relevant when put together with the previous posts where you seem to backpedal on something that was putting an hypothetical scum in a tight spot.
As part of a feeling of being encroached and under pressure, the post emerges as an attempt by scum to find mental common ground with town.
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Post Post #143 (isolation #19) » Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:09 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 142, Inferno390 wrote:See your not addressing why I think your logic is circular.
The reason I think your logic is circular is because you’re using the fact that you think I’m scum to say that my post was aimed to look Town.
X is scum
Therefore this thing X did is scum motivated or is done because of scum reasons
So X is scum. Die, scum!

Or something like that.
And what would make you think I felt encroached and under pressure. There wasn’t a wagon on me, the two people scumreading me I’m already interacting with, and no one is pushing me except my scumreads. What pressure?
And what exactly am I backpedaling from?
I think I get it. But it's still not circular; it's not feeding itself. It's complementing the conclusion (which is scumread), in consequence to the posts before.
I understand it isn't, in itself, worthy of a scumread.

To me, it's when you put everything I've pointed together that a scummy mindset emerges, not with each individual piece.

I said I thought you felt encroached and under pressure at that moment for recognizing the skitter read being wrong (which is what I mean by backpedaling), in conjunction with urap2's callouts, as well as my own posts on the matter. This would be enough for me and the general tone in your posts seemed to convey a level of antsiness. From what you're saying, it seems you weren't in fact feeling this type of pressure. Is this right?
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Post Post #189 (isolation #20) » Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:26 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 152, Inferno390 wrote:
In post 143, Exilon wrote:
In post 142, Inferno390 wrote:See your not addressing why I think your logic is circular.
The reason I think your logic is circular is because you’re using the fact that you think I’m scum to say that my post was aimed to look Town.
X is scum
Therefore this thing X did is scum motivated or is done because of scum reasons
So X is scum. Die, scum!

Or something like that.
And what would make you think I felt encroached and under pressure. There wasn’t a wagon on me, the two people scumreading me I’m already interacting with, and no one is pushing me except my scumreads. What pressure?
And what exactly am I backpedaling from?
I think I get it. But it's still not circular; it's not feeding itself. It's complementing the conclusion (which is scumread), in consequence to the posts before.
I understand it isn't, in itself, worthy of a scumread.

To me, it's when you put everything I've pointed together that a scummy mindset emerges, not with each individual piece.

I said I thought you felt encroached and under pressure at that moment for recognizing the skitter read being wrong (which is what I mean by backpedaling), in conjunction with urap2's callouts, as well as my own posts on the matter. This would be enough for me and the general tone in your posts seemed to convey a level of antsiness. From what you're saying, it seems you weren't in fact feeling this type of pressure. Is this right?
No. I don’t feel like there’s a lot of pressure in my direction at the moment.
If my interpretation of it is wrong, then what motivated you to write that post? what was on your mind?

Regardless, I'm willing to take that for what it is and adjust my read accordingly.

This point still remains, could you address it?
In post 141, Exilon wrote:
In post 133, skitter30 wrote: [...]
c) you said this:
In post 114, Exilon wrote:He seems to misunderstand the question and answers in Post 83with "because she's scumreads independent of Ur2 and Exi",
which only makes sense if you're assuming there's more than one anti-town team,
which .... okay, but it seems like a slip up, because, wouldn't wording it as "Exi and urap2 are scum together" be faster, more organic, and natural?
which i understood to mean that you're objecting to the fact that inferno was not scumreading me as being part of a team with his other scumreads urap and exi. i.e. that you think having scumreads but not reading all of them together as a team is problematic - that independant scumreads aren't a thing

i'm saying that i fundementally disagree with that (especially at this stage of the game) - i think it's entirely possible to scumread multiple people without viewing them holistically as a team

(fwiw mini normals are not allowed to have multiball these days btw)

what i mean by incorrect assumption is that you used that to build your case, and i'm saying that i disagree with this pov to begin with
As in: if there's only one team of scum, and if you think three people are scum, you're not going to say "the scum team is these 2 people", right? That's how I read it.

I understand later this point is expanded into "these 2 people are scum by association" (=they're a team); but the justification of this (it's chainsaw) also applies to skitter, whom he said he was reading scum for something else. (which leads to the contradiction). Later he removes scumread on skitter. But the accusation of chainsaw defense remains.

So he says urap2 is scummy because his attack is chainsaw-y, which would make me and skitter is scumbuddies. Since we know he thinks skitter is townie and I'm scum, this can't be the only reason why he feels scummy about me. But he hasn't elaborated on what it could be.

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Post Post #190 (isolation #21) » Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:27 am

Post by Exilon »

Is Sash doing AtE?
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Post Post #192 (isolation #22) » Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:55 pm

Post by Exilon »

Is there a better name to 185?
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Post Post #211 (isolation #23) » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:26 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 197, u r a person 2 wrote:This is a frustrating moment to be pushing me for this reason.

I voted there because the iso was scummy af, and I read the iso because their posts shortly prior to my vote were really pinging.

But I actually like the woe-is-me response as town and Exilon asking if it was ate rather than asserting that it was ate and calling that scummy pinged me hard. I was town reading there but I want to give him another read

But none of that is going to happen tonight
That was a sarcastic question, so it is throwing the assertion that it is indeed AtE.
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Post Post #212 (isolation #24) » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:33 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 202, cbynumber wrote:
In post 138, Exilon wrote:
In post 137, cbynumber wrote:Exilon is still scum, btw. Why would he make an in depth post in about how CDB's wagon is 'weird' only to go and case someone else immediately?
Because it was something I noticed and felt it was important to address. I also wanted to address Inferno390.
Where's the problem here exactly
The problem is you didn't address anything, aside from essentially giving a play by play on how the wagon formed.
I assume saying it's weird means you think it's scummy, right? so I would imagine that you would want to try and find scum off of it if you were town, but you don't follow up on it at all. Fair enough that you want to address inferno as well, but how does posting this help us catch scum if yo uarn't going to follow up or attempt to come to any conclusions from it?

It reads to me like you felt obliged to comment on the most recent wagon at the time.
Well, it was weird. And I needed to point it out there, because, where else. The conclusion was, "this bandwagon is suspicious". For me, the play by play speaks for itself. But I find your notion of "you didn't come to any conclusions" false. For one, I said this

"it's almost as if Bob's vote was caused by that first vote"

And the lack of follow up or even pointing out by other people is information in itself, at least to me.

I still don't see any problem here except you saying there's a problem with it and saying it isn't helping town while I see yo butt sitting there still voting for me and doing absolutely nothing else of note that would help town win with 5 posts in the entire game, 3 of which are dedicated to saying I'm scum.

But you do you
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Post Post #213 (isolation #25) » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:35 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 210, Inferno390 wrote:@Exil:
I was motivated to do it, so to speak, by a combination of someone
(don’t remember who) saying that it felt like skitter was being pushed more than pushing, and me liking some of his posts after I made that comment
. I wanted to rethink my stance on her and make sure what I was saying was actually valid (which it wasn’t)
.....that was me
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Post Post #217 (isolation #26) » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:50 am

Post by Exilon »

UNVOTE:

I'm more than convinced
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Post Post #218 (isolation #27) » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:51 am

Post by Exilon »

You should just go ahead and rewirte the whole post Garmr
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Post Post #219 (isolation #28) » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:51 am

Post by Exilon »

Also if you could not call me stupid that would be great thanks
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Post Post #221 (isolation #29) » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:55 am

Post by Exilon »

I honestly 100% do not know what you're talking about

It seems you're implying I'm going for some gambit or something

I'm not
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Post Post #222 (isolation #30) » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:56 am

Post by Exilon »

I'm not pissed, I just didn't come here to be personally insulted
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Post Post #234 (isolation #31) » Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:47 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 232, ChannelDelibird wrote:FYI, I'm going to be limited to phoneposting until Sunday evening.

Those squeamish about the Sash wagon should come hang out on the infinitely more wholesome RuiRui wagon, which grows more righteous with every passing minute since her last (awful) post.
ok actually I'm ok with this

VOTE: RuiRui
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Post Post #247 (isolation #32) » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:13 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 245, Inferno390 wrote:
In post 243, Garmr wrote:
In post 241, Inferno390 wrote:Yeah I’m not buying Sash. If anything, Bob’s vote on Sash feels the most genuine of any of them.
Even more genuine than a IC?
I’m disregarding the IC because I know he’s town.
Ausuka wrote:
In post 242, Inferno390 wrote:Gamr I’m conflicted about. He comes off very tonally odd and very opportunistic rn.


Gamr I’m conflicted about. He comes off very tonally odd and very opportunistic rn.
opportunistic? how?
I feel like he moved his vote back onto Sash because a wagon started forming there. I only saw reasons for why he thought Sash was scum until after the wagon. And the vote on Channel was very sheepy. And I don’t like the “vote first, reasons later” narrative I’m seeing. Seems unnatural.
Vote on Channel sheepy? He was the first one to vote for CDB if I'm not mistaken (I even posted about it). My attention on that wagon is more on Bob (which *did* feel sheepy and let's say opportunistic)
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Post Post #248 (isolation #33) » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:13 am

Post by Exilon »

Uh I hadn't seen Garmr's latest post. Sorry
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Post Post #257 (isolation #34) » Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:51 pm

Post by Exilon »

I'm not egix
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Post Post #293 (isolation #35) » Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:05 am

Post by Exilon »

Have you considered that it stalled because the deadline for the day isn't over and some of us would like to have more information? Seems like you're relying on some incorrect assumptions here.

In fact, the only reason I'm not voting Sash is because the day isn't over and if I had voted for Sash I would have been hammering him (at least when I looked at the votecount and considered it). And I won't change it now because pressure = information and I like that.
However and for now let it be known that I find Sash to scummier than RuiRui and would rather lynch Sash than RuiRui.
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Post Post #356 (isolation #36) » Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:04 am

Post by Exilon »

This urap2 / Inferno390 exchange is so TvT I can't even
u guys pls
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Post Post #360 (isolation #37) » Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:17 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 297, skitter30 wrote:I feel complete apathy wrt the sash wagon. Like it just kinda is, dont really get why it happened

I think ausuka is town now

@exilon ur post just above feels kinda exactly like what a partner would say


Also i want to sort urap
This is so WIFOM it hurts. I'm suspicious even if I don't say anything, so I'd rather put it out there what my feelings are on the subject.

In post 301, Ausuka wrote:
In post 293, Exilon wrote:Have you considered that it stalled because the deadline for the day isn't over and some of us would like to have more information? Seems like you're relying on some incorrect assumptions here.

In fact, the only reason I'm not voting Sash is because the day isn't over and if I had voted for Sash I would have been hammering him (at least when I looked at the votecount and considered it). And I won't change it now because pressure = information and I like that.
However and for now let it be known that I find Sash to scummier than RuiRui and would rather lynch Sash than RuiRui.
We have 5 days left; I actually think this would be a perfect time to run up Sashaddin and give intent, so if he's actually town and has a claim that justifies leaving him alive, we have enough time to find a good alternative instead of compromise lynching. I don't think running this down to deadline will be helpful and could just cause a scramble. Unless I'm mistaken in counting which I'm 99% sure I'm not, Sashaddin has been at 5 votes, then dropped to 4, leaving him at L-3; that's plenty of room to vote if you want to. I don't think the Ruirui wagon is providing us that much information right now.
In post 294, Inferno390 wrote:So where do I fall in all of that Ausuka?
If Sasha is scum you're almost definitely town. If he's town you're null-townish. Based on play I feel that you're probably not scum regardless.
In post 297, skitter30 wrote:ur post just above feels kinda exactly like what a partner would say
Yeah this probably makes Exilon the most suspicious of the Ruirui wagon; it feels like upon being associated to Sasha his reaction was that he had to disprove what I was saying.
I think at one point Sash had 6 votes on him (shortly after the "I'm quitting!" post), so I thought "hummm, better not"
VOTE: Sashaddin

In regards to bold see above. The objetive wasn't to disprove what you're saying but rather make you think about other possibilities, which seemed to be missing from your thought-out post.
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Post Post #432 (isolation #38) » Sun Apr 28, 2019 11:52 am

Post by Exilon »

See after all this I really can't see urap2 being scum, it's a lot of self-exposition and tonally it feels town to me.

but I'm going to need some time to chew through all these last pages properly.
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Post Post #502 (isolation #39) » Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:07 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 496, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 492, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I’m confirmed town. Why do you not have an opinion on me voting for you?
I don't know how your opinion could effect the game differently than other players. If you want to explain please? :?:
:?
In post 5, tris wrote:
An Announcement:

Lil Uzi Vert is
aligned with town
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Post Post #508 (isolation #40) » Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:52 am

Post by Exilon »

I don't even think that's what he asked?
I mean, I think the whole exchange doesn't make a whole lot of sense

Uzi (or is it LUV?) asks: why don't you have an opinion on my vote?
sash answers: your opinion doesn't affect the game any differently than any other player (???? this isn't a response to the question whatsoever)

There's two topics here, and they got nothing to do with each other.
I addressed Sash's answer and took it on its own (which is just as well considering it doesn't at all link with what it supposedly answers to), Inferno focused on Uzi's point.

Just wanted to untangle this before I move on and answer Sash:
In post 506, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 502, Exilon wrote:
In post 496, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 492, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I’m confirmed town. Why do you not have an opinion on me voting for you?
I don't know how your opinion could effect the game differently than other players. If you want to explain please? :?:
:?
In post 5, tris wrote:
An Announcement:

Lil Uzi Vert is
aligned with town
I know, but HOW does it change something?
Well if he's town it stands to reason that he's more trustworthy and isn't fabricating reads so that in itself makes him and his vote trustworthy. So by default town gives his opinion more credit than someone whose alignment is a mystery.
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Post Post #522 (isolation #41) » Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:44 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 514, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 508, Exilon wrote:Uzi (or is it LUV?) asks: why don't you have an opinion on my vote?
sash answers: your opinion doesn't affect the game any differently than any other player (???? this isn't a response to the question whatsoever)
I meant that I didn't know how his opinion of me should affect the game differently than how the other players see me. It was not affirmative, it was interrogative.
Please walk through it with baby steps, I don't get how this comftown-from-the-start affects this game.
Well generally when there's two mutually exclusive hypotheses, interrogating one of them indicates the assumption of the opposite.

In other words, if you would ask "I don't know how god can exist?", your initial assumption is that god doesn't exist.
So within the interrogation there is a necessary affirmation. So when you interrogate him, there's an affirmation behind it. I simply brought it to the forefront to make it clear that you didn't answer his question (for whatever reason):

He asked you why you hadn't voiced
your opinion
on his vote.

Your answer addressed the topic,
his opinion
.

Completely separate things.

Anyway, in regards to the bolded quoted text, I don't really know what type of answer you're looking for? Besides what's been mentioned, anyway.
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Post Post #596 (isolation #42) » Wed May 01, 2019 1:36 am

Post by Exilon »

I reread a bit. I really am fine with Sash's lynch.
[quote=Skitter30]i'm debating whether or not i think channel's outburst is scummy; i'm still thinking about it
i think it's fakeable in real time for some people[/quote]

this is weird to me.

Is the outburst in itself possibly scummy to you (but genuine) or can it be scummy *because* it could be faked?
If the latter, why would you fake an outburst?
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Post Post #597 (isolation #43) » Wed May 01, 2019 1:37 am

Post by Exilon »

EDBWOP: huuuu so that quote was this one:
In post 593, skitter30 wrote:
[...]

i'm debating whether or not i think channel's outburst is scummy; i'm still thinking about it
i think it's fakeable in real time for some people
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Post Post #706 (isolation #44) » Thu May 02, 2019 9:16 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 643, Inferno390 wrote:Honestly, I would rather a Sash flip than a Rui one. I think we get a lot more info off the Sash flip than anything else [...]
I share this opinion.

In post 645, Garmr wrote:
In post 643, Inferno390 wrote:Honestly, I would rather a Sash flip than a Rui one. I think we get a lot more info off the Sash flip than anything else atp except maybe UR2.

P-edit: Yah a legit scum read cause it’s made by legit scum
Lol what ever.
What's this about? I feel like I missed something that would justify this type of reply
In post 639, skitter30 wrote:well now i'm getting spooked that you're suggesting this wagon too so
Skitter what
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Post Post #710 (isolation #45) » Thu May 02, 2019 9:30 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 663, Garmr wrote:@URAP2 and Sash

Just want to straighten this out you guys think rui rui is scum if sash is town right?

I think it's pretty much the opposite. A scum Rui rui has had all day to jump on the sash wagon if sash was town. I also doubt a scum rui would actively oppose the counter wagon to their wagon. They haven't relaly done much but they could of saved their own skin earlier and the sash lynch would of gone through.

So that leaves them in two circumstances town that actually think sash is town or scum with sash and not willing to bus for reasons.


So I don't understand why Rui rui is the counter wagon if you think sash is town?
I want to share a different hypothesis:
Why would scum!RuiRui jump on a wagon already populated by scum (or about to be) and with people willing to go for it?
If she had got on the Sash wagon I think it would've been damning.
In post 696, High Risk Gamble wrote:
In post 234, Exilon wrote:
In post 232, ChannelDelibird wrote:FYI, I'm going to be limited to phoneposting until Sunday evening.

Those squeamish about the Sash wagon should come hang out on the infinitely more wholesome RuiRui wagon, which grows more righteous with every passing minute since her last (awful) post.
ok actually I'm ok with this

VOTE: RuiRui
This ones even worse since your attraction hasn't been any where near RuiRui. What made you feel that this is solid reasoning as scummy here?
huh?
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Post Post #717 (isolation #46) » Thu May 02, 2019 9:59 am

Post by Exilon »

So I reread Sash's ISO with some more attention.

I want to point out what I feel about it and what I'm seeing.

Mostly there's a consisting tone shift from the early part of the game up to when the wagon on Sash formed and moved. Ealier on, up to 145. In this same posts he mentions to have tried sheeping. He sheeps Inferno390. This is consistent as well with what he says later in 186.

From then on, it's possible to denote a clear shift in tone - less pushy, less "agressive", more dialogical. There's interest in egaging here.

261 feels town honest to me too.

This too:
In post 289, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 285, skitter30 wrote:has town!you ever gotten this worked up about being wagoned before?
Very honestly no, this was atypical of myself. It's just that I don't seem to have that kind of problems in minis, only in larges. Plus, I had another game going on that wasn't too pleasant either. And some non-mafia related problems, to think of it. Maybe now I can see better in this one since my two previous things are gone.

The greatest scumread of Sash is Garmr. The lean shows up in #146. About their interactions, there is quite a bit and Garmr seems very intent on Sash being scum. Forcefully, I'd say.


There's something interesting here in hindsight. Notice this exchange:

In post 290, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 288, Garmr wrote:Person is under pressure to come up with a excuse makes the "I was sheeping town reads." S
ince their actions show no signs of sheeping town reads in fact you look for them saying they were going to do it you can't find it. You find evidence of the opposite.
So by adding all those points you can conclude they were lying about it and it was a rushed excused.
Is this still about me in ?
Garmr states something demonstrably false. Look above! He even uses the word sheeping in 145, and "I'll follow". It's not incoherent at all!

There's ONE more recent post that I dislike and makes Sash look very scummy:
In post 664, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 647, u r a person 2 wrote:but actually if sash is scum, skitter might actually be scum here because I don't see it being you and I'd be surprised if my wagon was clean there either
If I'm scum Skitter definitely is compromising herself by defending me so hard. What's the reverse of tunneling?

This should be an element of thought... Would a scum go forward and defend with such vigor a scum lynch on the first day?
We know from a later post Skitter is "solid town" to Sash, after being null for a long while.

Then this:
In post 690, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 689, Garmr wrote:But I'll bite on the scenario

Say if I'm wrong Sash
Well on my wagon I suspected at some point everyone but LUV and Ausuka. But if you trust your reads, well yeah, it could be a town wagon.
Personally, I'm afraid my scum list has run dry with the extinction of Bob and URAP2 . The wolves are well hidden... Are we 10/3 or 9/4 in this format usually?
Sash never scumread me, quite the opposite. So this is false, amidst a sea of reading consistency from him.


I need to think on this a bit and how it affects my read on Sash. I'm going to a dance class but I'll be back in about 1.5 hours.
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Post Post #726 (isolation #47) » Thu May 02, 2019 12:21 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 717, Exilon wrote:
In post 290, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 288, Garmr wrote:Person is under pressure to come up with a excuse makes the "I was sheeping town reads." S
ince their actions show no signs of sheeping town reads in fact you look for them saying they were going to do it you can't find it. You find evidence of the opposite.
So by adding all those points you can conclude they were lying about it and it was a rushed excused.
Is this still about me in ?
Garmr states something demonstrably false. Look above! He even uses the word sheeping in 145, and "I'll follow". It's not incoherent at all!
In post 718, Garmr wrote: Wrong he didn't sheep a town read post refers to skitter being a town read on the wagon and sheeping infernos reasoning.
He did!
Post #90 is Sash saying "I'm not right about Skitter and it was mostly RVS". Then he follows Inferno's vote on urap2.
He refers to this in 145:
In post 145, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 119, Ausuka wrote:Can you explain this further please? Like, what about Inferno's analysis is great? I'm not seeing your pov here.
The game started hard and fast. My vote on Skitter was pure RVS but I sensed town in her, so I wanted to unvote and settle elsewhere.
Of all the posts I found that far, this was the post that was telling me the most.
I was feeling what was being said real good: the yikes 40 , the convenient 76, the free shade on 42... since we are early I decided not to be inactive and sheep a bit. I know taking someone else's reasoning is not the best move, but it's a start.
People tell me I'm inactive Day 1 so I try to get away from that image now.

In post 718, Garmr wrote:
The greatest scumread of Sash is Garmr.
I don't know if I am their greatest scum read but if I was why vote bob before me and switch to me when I'm starting to get into a debate with inferno??
In 146, Sash has the following reads:
In post 146, Sashaddin wrote:(...)
- Garmr and I were scum partners once, he hasn't done much but I'm getting the same vibe. I'm watching this slot.
- Bob seems nervous scum, like post 97 below
(...)
These are his scumreads then. In 151, he votes Bob, gets wagoned, and 30 posts later posts this one:
In post 185, Sashaddin wrote:I think I'm going to quit playing Mafia, I always end up being lynched in the first days and that doesn't help town at all.
He comes back in #260, which is relevant:
In post 260, Sashaddin wrote:Um, hello. Sorry for the absence, I thought of quitting then I thought how I hate when someone quits on games I like, so here i am.

Having caught up, the very first thing that comes to my mind is that Garmr is very opportunistic and shrewd. He's the same that when were red together, he's playing within his scum range imo. He's my prime suspect.
Others are less obvious, I'll have to read a second or third time this evening to get a feel of the other players, probably when the kids and wife are sleeping.

But in the meantime:
VOTE: Garmr
My main gripe here is that I can see this both ways. I can see Sash having been coached by maf to get back in the game and try to follow up on this one read. In 284 he went over ISOS and asides from Bob, his reads are much unchanged - skitter goes back to null and URAP2, even though the initial vote on him had been sheeped, is "less trustworthy". But he keeps the vote on Garmr.

Is latching behaviour "scummy by nature" (wink)? Or is it motivated by a townie mindset who has been a bit shaken?

Sash came back with some renewed energy to the game. But his reads and votes didn't change much. After his vote on URAP2, in 573, he's scumread. Later, without any more interaction, he unvotes URAP2, in 661. He later explains this is due to finding some of the posts URAP makes townie. But now isn't voting anyone else.
Who's scumread right now? Only Garmr, I guess?
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Post Post #727 (isolation #48) » Thu May 02, 2019 12:34 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 721, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 717, Exilon wrote:If I'm scum Skitter definitely is compromising herself by defending me so hard. What's the reverse of tunneling?
If I'm scum
scum!skitter
definitely would be compromising herself.
What I meant. :wink:
I eventually understood that the assumed hypothesis was scum!Skitter.

I want to bring up the original post though. I may be reading too much into it but there's something here that I feel is deeply off and even though I may be reading too much into it I have to be attentive:
In post 664, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 647, u r a person 2 wrote:but actually if sash is scum, skitter might actually be scum here because I don't see it being you and I'd be surprised if my wagon was clean there either
If I'm scum Skitter definitely is compromising herself by defending me so hard. What's the reverse of tunneling?
This should be an element of thought... Would a scum go forward and defend with such vigor a scum lynch on the first day?
1. is she really defending that hard? // 2. why not? If scum!skitter, she would try to keep up appearances and be consistent. It wouldn't surprise me too much. //
3. aaaaa this is what has been tickling my spider senses!
Yes scum would most definitely be defending a scum lynch on the first day! Why would they shoot themselves in the foot by not trying?!
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Post Post #728 (isolation #49) » Thu May 02, 2019 12:34 pm

Post by Exilon »

I'm keeping my vote on Sash.
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Post Post #764 (isolation #50) » Thu May 02, 2019 8:43 pm

Post by Exilon »

I'm mostly with cdb here and i will add that, in any scenario, garm, the reasoning follows that ruirui is not playing to a town win condition whereas it can be argued (and his iso shows it) that sash tried.

But i personally would be more keen on jumping if the last few sash contributions hadn't been unvote and metagame discussion as opposed to actual scumhunting.

That's how i feel about the slot right now.
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Post Post #765 (isolation #51) » Thu May 02, 2019 8:45 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 762, ChannelDelibird wrote:
Obviously I have encountered lots of people who were blasé about the idea of being lynched over the years. You know what they did? They showed up and said "I don't really care if you lynch me, sheep me when I'm dead" or variations thereof. Because that's all they had.

RUIRUI IS TRYING TO BE IGNORED
That sounds like a very familiar sentence, is this a jab at someone here lol
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Post Post #771 (isolation #52) » Thu May 02, 2019 8:58 pm

Post by Exilon »

Wait when did you come to the conclusion that ruirui scum implies sash scum, garmr??
And also by that logic you should be voting rui and sort both slots.

You know what, I'm gonna stand with high risk here
VOTE: ruirui
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Post Post #772 (isolation #53) » Thu May 02, 2019 9:00 pm

Post by Exilon »

For reference, i was talking about 766 there
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Post Post #775 (isolation #54) » Thu May 02, 2019 9:13 pm

Post by Exilon »

Yes i remember but the impression i got from you was that it was, logically speakong, a weak implication as opposed to a strong one like what it sounded like there. But that by itself means you get the same amount of information from either lynch...
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Post Post #776 (isolation #55) » Thu May 02, 2019 9:19 pm

Post by Exilon »

Nevermind that, i got that wrong
The logic here is
Rui scum implies sash scum
Therefore,
Sash town implies rui town

But if you're so convinced sash is scum, it's probably likely you get more info from a rui flip..
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Post Post #779 (isolation #56) » Thu May 02, 2019 9:27 pm

Post by Exilon »

but guys is it really relevant if ruirui's behaviours come from scum or not the main argument in favor of her lynch is that she hasn't even tried to help town?
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Post Post #784 (isolation #57) » Thu May 02, 2019 9:42 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 780, Garmr wrote:Add both scenarios together and it shows to me rui rui more like town. In scenario A Rui rui is not likely scum with sash. So when you add scenario B were it rui rui can only be scum with sash that means rui rui must be town. Get my logic?
I get the logic and the premises that you used; thanks!
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Post Post #791 (isolation #58) » Fri May 03, 2019 2:49 am

Post by Exilon »

Sash's flip gives us info because of his interactions, which have been plenty; and they have been plenty because he's been engaging. Going into day 2, an alive Sash will still engage, or at least he is likely to do so.
Rui's flip will also give us info, not because of her interactions, which have been sparse, but because of how her counter wagon emerged, and who interacted with the wagon.

So Sash gives us information by virtue of him engaging, while RuiRui gives us information by virtue of her wagon.

My point here is, it's more likely I get more information from an alive sash day 2 by the fact he is participating and therefore autonomously generating information than RuiRui.
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Post Post #792 (isolation #59) » Fri May 03, 2019 2:50 am

Post by Exilon »

and also if you want to reap the informational profits of her wagon, which are situational to Day1, that ain't happening day2. At least that's how I see it.
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Post Post #797 (isolation #60) » Fri May 03, 2019 3:17 am

Post by Exilon »

Shia LePerson2
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Post Post #801 (isolation #61) » Fri May 03, 2019 5:19 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 799, Sashaddin wrote:I know I'm green. From my pov, voting Ruirui makes some sense strategically then. However, I don't see much scum in her 11 posts. What's the best option for me here?
Tell who else atm you think is scum or think may be scum
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Post Post #842 (isolation #62) » Fri May 03, 2019 11:47 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 837, skitter30 wrote:
In post 779, Exilon wrote:but guys is it really relevant if ruirui's behaviours come from scum or not the main argument in favor of her lynch is that she hasn't even tried to help town?
I kinda fundementally disagree that this is a good reason to lynch people (esp day!)
So how do you sort those slots mostly?
Night actions?
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Post Post #914 (isolation #63) » Mon May 06, 2019 2:18 am

Post by Exilon »

Spoiler: Sash & Garmr
In post 858, Sashaddin wrote:I didn't see in CDB iso anything incriminating for anyone, he was trying to push Ruirui at the end of the day.
I would have expected someone more... townier to die last night.
Your reads make sense URAP2
In post 882, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 880, bob3141 wrote:The logic is very flawed as well. Why would you think garmr not being nk woudl make him mafia?
That's what I tried to explain 3 times...

If I were mafia I'd kill town!Garmr first.
Scum!Garmr survives because he can't be killed he's mafia.

LUV has a good point too though. But my first thought was about Garmr being suspect for susrviving the night.
In post 895, u r a person 2 wrote:sash, if you were scumreading gamr at eod yesterday, why did you think that he was so townie that he was likely to be a nk if town?

Sash is currently reading like scum or unconfident scumhunter.
The latching behaviour from day 1 is still visible.

As others (e.g. URAP2) pointed out (and I agree), Sash feels somewhat contradictory here. End of D1, he didn't have any strong scumreads (which I pointed out), but Sash was likely the easiest scumlean for him.

D2, he points out he was surprised Garmr wasn't killed, pointing out that "several people had been townreading him; he would have been my target, over CDB".

Sure, Sash may be scum, or maybe, unconfident scumhunter. This doesn't seem like an out of left field correlation to make, and he actually may have a point here to develop.
So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?
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Post Post #917 (isolation #64) » Mon May 06, 2019 2:25 am

Post by Exilon »

Oh also skitter if you wanna sort me and Egix and by that I mean stop confusing us, please by all means interact with me so that we can get to know each other well enough that I don't lumped with someone else. kthx
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Post Post #920 (isolation #65) » Mon May 06, 2019 2:57 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 919, skitter30 wrote:
In post 917, Exilon wrote:Oh also skitter if you wanna sort me and Egix and by that I mean stop confusing us, please by all means interact with me so that we can get to know each other well enough that I don't lumped with someone else. kthx
Sorry, not trying to,for some reason i keep getting ur usernames confused.

Can i interest u in joining the sash wagon?

Do u have any spicy reads?
You can surely interest me in joining his wagon. But I do want to see his replies first.

I have someone from the D1 lynch train that I want to give a closer look to. I had a gut feeling about them yesterday but I do need to take a closer look at their interactions and see if I find enough substance to support my instinct. I'll elaborate on this later.
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Post Post #927 (isolation #66) » Mon May 06, 2019 3:31 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 921, Garmr wrote:
In post 914, Exilon wrote: Sure, Sash may be scum, or maybe, unconfident scumhunter. This doesn't seem like an out of left field correlation to make, and he actually may have a point here to develop.
So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?
My opinion is that conclusion is too much wifom at the moment. You have other factors like at the end of the day people were suspicious of me, A scum member may be using me as a shield to get town reads (Looks at inferno),Pr hunting and they put me lower on the list than cbd, It's a safer kill maybe, they planned to lynch me ect.
In case it wasn't clear, that was addressed at Sash.
I'm not sure why anyone else would think to answer that.
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Post Post #929 (isolation #67) » Mon May 06, 2019 3:34 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 926, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 924, Garmr wrote:That sounds like scum being all giddy about a mislynch to me tbh.
Sure, I could see that.

I quoted those posts because Skitter had asked me if I thought it was suspicious that Sash seemed to be dancing around the hammer. I found that not very compelling because Sash had basically given RuiRui a 30 minute window to come to the thread and claim, and for all I know would have hammered at that time had I not asked for them to delay.

But, yes, the twice used "this is fun" line did ping me a tiny bit, as well.
My thinking and read is very much in line with this.
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Post Post #938 (isolation #68) » Mon May 06, 2019 4:34 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 930, Garmr wrote:
In post 927, Exilon wrote:
In post 921, Garmr wrote:
In post 914, Exilon wrote: Sure, Sash may be scum, or maybe, unconfident scumhunter. This doesn't seem like an out of left field correlation to make, and he actually may have a point here to develop.
So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?
My opinion is that conclusion is too much wifom at the moment. You have other factors like at the end of the day people were suspicious of me, A scum member may be using me as a shield to get town reads (Looks at inferno),Pr hunting and they put me lower on the list than cbd, It's a safer kill maybe, they planned to lynch me ect.
In case it wasn't clear, that was addressed at Sash.
I'm not sure why anyone else would think to answer that.
Yeah I figured it was addressed to sash. But it caught my interest and as I said day 1 I'm all for people chipping in unless it's a very specif personal question and I didn't think it was one of those.

Also I don't think you are aware of this but it seemed like your bias slipped into it. It seemed like you had a theory what happened and It tainted your question a bit and since you had put your horse blinders on to outside possibilities. S were you thinking something around these lines?
While I get where you're coming from to think that, no to every question.
I framed my words that way specifically with a certain intent.
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Post Post #962 (isolation #69) » Mon May 06, 2019 9:07 am

Post by Exilon »

I wonder if bob noticed my post where i quoted that exact sentiment saying i felt the same way / agreed with urap2

Am i scummy to you too, bob?
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Post Post #969 (isolation #70) » Mon May 06, 2019 10:09 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 963, bob3141 wrote:
In post 962, Exilon wrote:I wonder if bob noticed my post where i quoted that exact sentiment saying i felt the same way / agreed with urap2

Am i scummy to you too, bob?
So waht are you reading in sash is actions then. Dont you think it was scummy him trying to encourage other players to vote for rui.

Maybe less scummy if he never voted but still scummy
I'm reading the same thing as urap2 stated. No subterfuge here.
Maybe you read him wrong, like he said, *maybe* not, but don't strawman me here.
And by that I mean don't evade answering my question to put the ball in my court.

This is your hole to dig out of, not mine.
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Post Post #971 (isolation #71) » Mon May 06, 2019 10:16 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 968, Ausuka wrote:
In post 966, bob3141 wrote:Looks like high risk gambler is sash partner
Explain this for me please. Why do you think HRG is Sash's scum partner and why do you have such high confidence about it?
Quoted for emphasis I also ask the same question
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Post Post #972 (isolation #72) » Mon May 06, 2019 10:17 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 970, bob3141 wrote:
In post 754, High Risk Gamble wrote:VOTE: RuiRui

Don't just lynch Sash because of the time. There's plenty of time to vote RuiRui up, get a claim and decide from there.
RuiRui has a lot more potential than Sash to flip scum here.

Looks very much like determined effort to push a counter wagon. You say dont lynch sach because of teh time, yet start pushing on Rui.

In another post starts claiming at taht point he thinks the wagon is all town. And who was teh first to vote for rui. No otehr CBH

Its very hard to argue some is scum later on if you said the wagon looked town. And that was your justification

And you seem to be question teh others that voted for it


On top of it you tried to preemtt any discussion on cbh nk by tying to claim only scum would run a narrative on it.
How is this scummy in any way

These things are all town
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Post Post #974 (isolation #73) » Mon May 06, 2019 10:20 am

Post by Exilon »

Also I want to quickly address this
In post 950, bob3141 wrote:Think we got sash in a freudian slip. Were he prety much agued the reason that he as mafia killed CHB over gamr

No. It's really not a freudian slip. Hell he just disproved his own thesis and it was all public, so unless it was 100% fake, which is what you have to accuse him of in order to say this, this is just false.
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Post Post #975 (isolation #74) » Mon May 06, 2019 10:21 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 973, bob3141 wrote:
In post 971, Exilon wrote:
In post 968, Ausuka wrote:
In post 966, bob3141 wrote:Looks like high risk gambler is sash partner
Explain this for me please. Why do you think HRG is Sash's scum partner and why do you have such high confidence about it?
Quoted for emphasis I also ask the same question

Why do you have any confidence any anything you say. I have an opinion and its a matter of fact.

There is just somethign taht makes me feel high is scum and I feel a deliberate attempt to diffuse teh wagon on sash when it was l-1.

Instead to vote for guy who was obvously just a town lurker
And it doesn't occur to you that a Town!HighRisk would want to diffuse a wagon on someone who he sees as obvious town??
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Post Post #979 (isolation #75) » Mon May 06, 2019 10:31 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 945, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 914, Exilon wrote:So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?
I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town ()
URAP2: Garmr is town (, ), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum ()
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town () and CDB town ()
Ausuka: CDB is town (, )
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him... :dead:

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this. :neutral:

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?
I read CDB as town when he was discussing with urap2, btw

Garmr is... difficult to analyse, personally. There's something in his tone that I feel could come from scum but his actions and pushes signal something more town like to me, so I don't think I'm going to be able to confidently sort him based on that alone. I don't think it's going to happen today, either.

yeah, do think about it :P Cause being wishy washy doesn't lead to town wins. Who could benefit the most from having their townread confirmed or their scumread disproved via NK?
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Post Post #980 (isolation #76) » Mon May 06, 2019 10:33 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 976, bob3141 wrote:
In post 969, Exilon wrote:
In post 963, bob3141 wrote:
In post 962, Exilon wrote:I wonder if bob noticed my post where i quoted that exact sentiment saying i felt the same way / agreed with urap2

Am i scummy to you too, bob?
So waht are you reading in sash is actions then. Dont you think it was scummy him trying to encourage other players to vote for rui.

Maybe less scummy if he never voted but still scummy
I'm reading the same thing as urap2 stated. No subterfuge here.
Maybe you read him wrong, like he said, *maybe* not, but don't strawman me here.
And by that I mean don't evade answering my question to put the ball in my court.

This is your hole to dig out of, not mine.

I find it odd im accusing you off subterfuge, In fact i make no refernce to urap in that sentance. I am asking you and you alone, what you read in sash action at end of the day and what you though of that impression sash gave he was fioshign for otehr to take his place.

Somethign that makes me feel sash was scum.
Let me word this very clearly, so there's no misunderstanding:

Answer my question first.
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Post Post #984 (isolation #77) » Mon May 06, 2019 10:56 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 983, bob3141 wrote:dont know what happened there. Ill try it agin (shoudl of been in post 982)

I was questioning to dtermine if urap was givign a sincerely opinion or trying to subtly cover for a scum partner by sweeping potnial scummy action under teh carpet. Like when i question urap about how he went saying I he thought i was town.
In post 956, bob3141 wrote:
In post 926, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 924, Garmr wrote:That sounds like scum being all giddy about a mislynch to me tbh.
Sure, I could see that.

I quoted those posts because Skitter had asked me if I thought it was suspicious that Sash seemed to be dancing around the hammer. I found that not very compelling because Sash had basically given RuiRui a 30 minute window to come to the thread and claim, and for all I know would have hammered at that time had I not asked for them to delay.

But, yes, the twice used "this is fun" line did ping me a tiny bit, as well.
This sounds a little like scum buddy trying defend the actions of his partner. Sash in fact danced around teh hammer as you put for why more than 30 mins. Even to go so far as trying encourage otehr to vote in his place.

Did it not look like a person wanting to avoid if at possible, the blaim for mislynch
If you're questioning, then maybe don't outright call him scummy for whatever opnion you're reading there.
IS it scummy or not?
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Post Post #988 (isolation #78) » Mon May 06, 2019 12:03 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 986, bob3141 wrote:
In post 984, Exilon wrote:
In post 983, bob3141 wrote:dont know what happened there. Ill try it agin (shoudl of been in post 982)

I was questioning to dtermine if urap was givign a sincerely opinion or trying to subtly cover for a scum partner by sweeping potnial scummy action under teh carpet. Like when i question urap about how he went saying I he thought i was town.
In post 956, bob3141 wrote:
In post 926, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 924, Garmr wrote:That sounds like scum being all giddy about a mislynch to me tbh.
Sure, I could see that.

I quoted those posts because Skitter had asked me if I thought it was suspicious that Sash seemed to be dancing around the hammer. I found that not very compelling because Sash had basically given RuiRui a 30 minute window to come to the thread and claim, and for all I know would have hammered at that time had I not asked for them to delay.

But, yes, the twice used "this is fun" line did ping me a tiny bit, as well.
This sounds a little like scum buddy trying defend the actions of his partner. Sash in fact danced around teh hammer as you put for why more than 30 mins. Even to go so far as trying encourage otehr to vote in his place.

Did it not look like a person wanting to avoid if at possible, the blaim for mislynch
If you're questioning, then maybe don't outright call him scummy for whatever opnion you're reading there.
IS it scummy or not?
Why does everything have to be so black and white with you.

Im trying to determine teh actions of those that voted for Rui, to fish out any scum. With urap tehre was two possibilities, one that would be scummy and one that could be townie doign a read.
I call it how I see it.
So since you're not calling him scummy for it, just stating how you could construct it as scummy, let me just cut that off at the root

This
Sash in fact danced around teh hammer as you put for why more than 30 mins. Even to go so far as trying encourage otehr to vote in his place.
Did it not look like a person wanting to avoid if at possible, the blaim for mislynch
a) As urap2 pointed out, Sash was ready to hammer, and possibly would have done so, hadn't people told him to hold off on doing so.
b) Even then, at that point he stated he had the intent to vote, so he'd always be considered part of (blamed for) the mislynch, regardless of the hammer vote.

So I would now like to direct your attention to more productive town endeavors.
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Post Post #989 (isolation #79) » Mon May 06, 2019 12:03 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 987, Garmr wrote:Bob is town.
I was super duper ready to vote him, too.
Dang.
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Post Post #1038 (isolation #80) » Tue May 07, 2019 3:39 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 979, Exilon wrote:
In post 945, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 914, Exilon wrote:So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?
I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town ()
URAP2: Garmr is town (, ), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum ()
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town () and CDB town ()
Ausuka: CDB is town (, )
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him... :dead:

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this. :neutral:

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?
I read CDB as town when he was discussing with urap2, btw

Garmr is... difficult to analyse, personally. There's something in his tone that I feel could come from scum but his actions and pushes signal something more town like to me, so I don't think I'm going to be able to confidently sort him based on that alone. I don't think it's going to happen today, either.

yeah, do think about it :P Cause being wishy washy doesn't lead to town wins. Who could benefit the most from having their townread confirmed or their scumread disproved via NK?
@sash
Well you could follow up on this
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Post Post #1042 (isolation #81) » Tue May 07, 2019 4:58 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1040, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 1038, Exilon wrote:yeah, do think about it Cause being wishy washy doesn't lead to town wins. Who could benefit the most from having their townread confirmed or their scumread disproved via NK?
I'm a nervous, unsure, paranoiac type of player (see the hammer dance). I'm afraid to make mistakes as town (only rolled scum twice and I found it way easier) so I guess I'm naturally wishy-washy. :oops: :eek: :(
To answer the question, I think the one who would benefit the most is the vocal type of player who pretends having strong reads, not the lurker.
Townread confirmed: a scum who townreadsduring his next night NK target willl get town cred
Scumread disproved: maybe a scum misreads on purpose a guy to appear clumsy town, I never thought of this before. Blame it on my lack of scum experience...
I like this but specifically, in this case, what players in this game could benefit the most from having their TR/SR conf/disproved by the NK?
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Post Post #1043 (isolation #82) » Tue May 07, 2019 4:59 am

Post by Exilon »

Meanwhile, in the spirit of keeping things moving and flowing;

I'd like to follow up on when I said I had someone I wanted to take a closer look to.

Refer back to my 113 where I felt the wagon on CDB was weird.
I wanna focus more deeply on Egix.

Building on that post, and now adding to it, 121 is an answer from CDB which I find to be quite right and interesting.

Egix addresses it in 167, by just dismissing it, arguing that CDB just thinks his logic is wrong. I think this is very poor and doesn't even try to properly address the assumptions behind CDB's argument, while instead tackling easier topics to divert attention from it.

But two posts prior in 165, egix is buddying to CDB and setting up a RuiRui vote, as well as pointing the finger to cby for being lurky.

I get

Spoiler: 174
In post 174, ChannelDelibird wrote:UNVOTE: Egix

I'd pretty much convinced myself as of my own #121 ('Egix decided he'd done a clever and useful reactions test, therefore assumed one of the reactions to it must have been from scum' is a reasonably common town thought process and the one that made the most sense to explain #104), and his responses just now all fit with a pretty solid 'bullheaded town' mindset. I think scum would have been more likely to concede me a point over #121, but Egix is sticking with his (misguided) thought process while still being able to open-mindedly address other issues like my calling out of RuiRui. Not lynching here for now.

VOTE: RuiRui
;

and I get what CDB is going for here and reading him as bullheaded town but I'm not so sure right now especially considering where Egix decided to go instead (inactives). Nvm the fact he manages to keep his SR on CDB and keep his vote on him while at the same time quoting him for truth (in 165, as mentioned previously) which I find quite ironic.

Like I'm not saying scum can't have genuine scumreads but if you're not sure of who's scummy (as Egix had stated previously), you're probably not going to give as much credit to your top suspicion's scumreads.

By this point Sash's wagon starts picking up and Egix points out in176 that he doesn't see sash as scum.

205 and 206 are extreme fencesitting (still no unvote from CDB), and currently read to me as someone who is trying to set up a move to an eventual Rui wagon;

bob points this out in 227 which I find very good.
233 is just amazing where egix follows CDB's suggestion and moves his vote over to Rui. See how his reasoning didn't actually evolve from 205 and 206?
There's posts of setup and then his main suspect, as per his words, once again says something that Egix quotes and follows.

347 sees Egix completely drop his SR on CDB without even a single mention to that change, or where it came from. In here, the main SRs are Rui and CBY, and suddenly Urap2 shows up as "third, I guess..."

But then Egix also drops this read on Urap2 in 503

In the eve of these great wagons, Egix changes a read on Inferno in 603; in 702 however he leaves quite explicit that RuiRui is the "closest thing to a scumread", which seems contrarian to his opinion on Inferno which at the very least had more substance to it than the reasoning he had for ruirui.

Jump forward another 200 or so posts and in 909 you get what could be an attempt to further analyse Inferno? 910 also does the same, but it's funny because it seems to me that Egix misreads Ausuka here, as Ausuka points out soon after. Egix doesn't bother following up on this.

There is some back and forth here between Egix and Inferno which isn't really accusatory in any way and is very dialogical between one or the other (see 959, and omce again I'm left to wonder if the scumread on Inferno was also dropped without real mention.

959 is also an example of a very empty post, but at least is consistent with staying on the rui wagon than the sash wagon - if Egix had been voting on Rui based on information and compromise as opposed to Rui being the closest he has to a scumread.


In summary, Egix's reads have been made for show, are non-commital, weak, and inconsistent between themselves. His voting (and lack thereof) supports a scum agenda.


Therefore,
VOTE: Egix96


Oh btw he hasn't posted yet day2 so I want to see him scumread himself.
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Post Post #1052 (isolation #83) » Tue May 07, 2019 6:00 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1044, Sashaddin wrote:CDB was only voted in wagons 1.02 and 1.03, I don't think we can learn much from this.

Gamrr iso was hard to read because he sometimes spells CDB as CBD, making it hard to get a continuous stream. But he had CDB as scum for a while towards the middle of Day 1. I don't think Garmr falls into my first category, and I don't see why Garmr would want to appear "clumsy town". So I have to push Garmr out of those who woujld benefit.
URAP2: doesn't mention CDB in any significant way. Nothing to see here I guess
Inferno: I think he saw CDB as town, but doesn't mention it much, I have to read between the lines to get an idea here. I don't think Inferno would gain much from the NK.
Skitter: Has CDB as possible TR then has no hesitation about her read. So far, Skitter has the best to get from that NK. Problem is that I am TR Skitter...
HRG: from , he views as town. I don't think he benefits from anything however.
Ausuka: Has CDB has town, but not strong enough or vocal enough to benefit imo.
Bob, Garmr and Exilon had no reads or interaction with CDB when I posted

In conclusion, I think that following this idea, only Skitter benefits somewhat from the NK, but it's not a clear case either. Why would she choose CDB over all her other reads? I didn't not perceive any soft crumble from CDB...

I don't think I got all I could from this, but iso diving is not an exact science...
@Exilon: Do you agree with my analysis?
It's not a matter of agreeing or not, I'm just trying to give you some food for thought and help town.

a) What do you mean by clumsy town wrt Garmr? Don't you think having wrong reads is more likely townie than scummy?
b) I get the feeling that URAP2 did actually have relevant things to say about CDB, you probably want to recheck that
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Post Post #1061 (isolation #84) » Tue May 07, 2019 7:49 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1059, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 1052, Exilon wrote:Don't you think having wrong reads is more likely townie than scummy?
It's not automatic to me, some scum are good at creating a table of fake reads and screw one or two of those not to appear omniscient.
This is very valid. I just don't know how likely it is! But I personally would give someone town cred if a scumread of them, especially someone if they were pushing (which isn't the case, but anyway) was NK'd.
Sashaddin wrote:
In post 1052, Exilon wrote:It's not a matter of agreeing or not, I'm just trying to give you some food for thought and help town.

a) What do you mean by clumsy town wrt Garmr? Don't you think having wrong reads is more likely townie than scummy?
b) I get the feeling that URAP2 did actually have relevant things to say about CDB, you probably want to recheck that
Food for thought.... I feel full for today :lol:

a) Scum who would push hard a read on someone to have a mislynch, but won't get town cred for that.
b) Posts: ,
408
x2, x2 are the posts where CDB is mentioned. Can you spot me what posts you think I should look at?
434 is Urap2 confirming that he finds CDB town.
He can confirm that better than I can though. Urap2?
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Post Post #1062 (isolation #85) » Tue May 07, 2019 7:50 am

Post by Exilon »

EDBWOP: that he finds CDB to have a townie reaction
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Post Post #1068 (isolation #86) » Tue May 07, 2019 9:58 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1066, Egix96 wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 1043, Exilon wrote:Meanwhile, in the spirit of keeping things moving and flowing;

I'd like to follow up on when I said I had someone I wanted to take a closer look to.

Refer back to my 113 where I felt the wagon on CDB was weird.
I wanna focus more deeply on Egix.

Building on that post, and now adding to it, 121 is an answer from CDB which I find to be quite right and interesting.

Egix addresses it in 167, by just dismissing it, arguing that CDB just thinks his logic is wrong. I think this is very poor and doesn't even try to properly address the assumptions behind CDB's argument, while instead tackling easier topics to divert attention from it.

But two posts prior in 165, egix is buddying to CDB and setting up a RuiRui vote, as well as pointing the finger to cby for being lurky.

I get

(Spoiler box redacted to prevent formatting breakage)


and I get what CDB is going for here and reading him as bullheaded town but I'm not so sure right now especially considering where Egix decided to go instead (inactives). Nvm the fact he manages to keep his SR on CDB and keep his vote on him while at the same time quoting him for truth (in 165, as mentioned previously) which I find quite ironic.

Like I'm not saying scum can't have genuine scumreads but if you're not sure of who's scummy (as Egix had stated previously), you're probably not going to give as much credit to your top suspicion's scumreads.

By this point Sash's wagon starts picking up and Egix points out in176 that he doesn't see sash as scum.

205 and 206 are extreme fencesitting (still no unvote from CDB), and currently read to me as someone who is trying to set up a move to an eventual Rui wagon;

bob points this out in 227 which I find very good.

(a)
233 is just amazing where egix follows CDB's suggestion and moves his vote over to Rui. See how his reasoning didn't actually evolve from 205 and 206?
There's posts of setup and then his main suspect, as per his words, once again says something that Egix quotes and follows.

347 sees Egix completely drop his SR on CDB without even a single mention to that change, or where it came from. In here, the main SRs are Rui and CBY, and suddenly Urap2 shows up as "third, I guess..."

But then Egix also drops this read on Urap2 in 503

(b)
In the eve of these great wagons, Egix changes a read on Inferno in 603; in 702 however he leaves quite explicit that RuiRui is the "closest thing to a scumread", which seems contrarian to his opinion on Inferno which at the very least had more substance to it than the reasoning he had for ruirui.

Jump forward another 200 or so posts and in 909 you get what could be an attempt to further analyse Inferno? 910 also does the same, but it's funny because it seems to me that Egix misreads Ausuka here, as Ausuka points out soon after. Egix doesn't bother following up on this.

There is some back and forth here between Egix and Inferno which isn't really accusatory in any way and is very dialogical between one or the other (see 959, and omce again I'm left to wonder if the scumread on Inferno was also dropped without real mention.

959 is also an example of a very empty post, but at least is consistent with staying on the rui wagon than the sash wagon - if Egix had been voting on Rui based on information and compromise as opposed to Rui being the closest he has to a scumread.


In summary, Egix's reads have been made for show, are non-commital, weak, and inconsistent between themselves. His voting (and lack thereof) supports a scum agenda.


Therefore,
VOTE: Egix96


Oh btw he hasn't posted yet day2 so I want to see him scumread himself.


Couple things here I wanna address:

(a) Yes, I was a bit suspicious of CDB for a short while, but my read on him was never particularly strong. And by the time that Rui was starting to look bad after making the infamous post and dropping off the radar for a couple of days, my suspicion of CDB had mostly faded.

(b) My scum lean on Inferno at that point was not quite as strong as my lean on Rui. Inferno was about a 6 while Rui was closer to a 7. (1=town, 10=scum)
a) from your own posting and actions your suspicion of cdb was fading at the same time you were calling him scummy. Like literally the same post. Even putting that aside, you're not justfiying here how exactly your suspicion faded. You're just saying it did, which is the same conclusion me and anyone can reach by looking at your ISO.

b) What is this even addressing? Once again, you're just stating what happened. Worst to me is that you're not even addressing the main reason of why I found that to be dissonant.
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Post Post #1119 (isolation #87) » Tue May 07, 2019 10:37 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 1086, skitter30 wrote:i can track his thought process from post to post and his posts holistically make sense as a whole
like i feel like i can understand how he's approaching the game
for my own reference, this post is referring to bob, correct?
In post 1081, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1061, Exilon wrote:This is very valid. I just don't know how likely it is! But I personally would give someone town cred if a scumread of them, especially someone if they were pushing (which isn't the case, but anyway) was NK'd.
why would u give someone towncred here
Usually, I'm not expecting scum to decide to nightkill someone that they've been pushing for during the day. a) They prove their read wrong; b) they force themselves to find other targets to push and fake more reasoning and scumreads. So yeah, I'd give someone twoncred for that if it happened.
In post 1100, skitter30 wrote:huh

i don't really get that vibe off of him much at all really.

his posts feel very ~thorough~ and analytical-y, like from a very *logical* pov. almost to the extent of iioa
It's as if you're saying posting a lot of supportive evidence is easily faked.
And yet I never fail to post an analysis and conclusions I reach from the information I gather, and at the very least I also follow up on it.

As opposed to, you know, fencesitting all day.
In post 1007, skitter30 wrote:UNVOTE: till we get a vc
And not putting your money where your mouth is.
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Post Post #1120 (isolation #88) » Tue May 07, 2019 10:40 pm

Post by Exilon »

EBWOP: And putting your money where your mouth is
damn
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Post Post #1128 (isolation #89) » Wed May 08, 2019 2:24 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1123, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1119, Exilon wrote:Usually, I'm not expecting scum to decide to nightkill someone that they've been pushing for during the day. a) They prove their read wrong; b) they force themselves to find other targets to push and fake more reasoning and scumreads. So yeah, I'd give someone twoncred for that if it happened.
Ok fair enough. I was kinda thinking that if someone's scumread got nk'd that meand their reads are bad kinda holistically so i wouldnt really give them towncred for having wrong reads.

I don't know if i would give people towncred for this really.

Exilon how were u reading channel at eod?
CDB always read town to me.
In post 1125, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1119, Exilon wrote:It's as if you're saying posting a lot of supportive evidence is easily faked.
And yet I never fail to post an analysis and conclusions I reach from the information I gather, and at the very least I also follow up on it.

As opposed to, you know, fencesitting all day.
I think this is a personality/playstyle thing. For some people, posting an analytical post like that as scum would be close to impossible, and they may prefer to interact in real time.

For other people (cough me cough) it's about a bajillion times easier to interact with the thread as scum with those sorts if posts.

I dont know u. I dont know ur playstyle. I'm saying that i do think scum can write those kinds of posts and that those posts are fakeable for some people, and that they read similarly to posts i make sometimes as scum.

They're high-effort and a lot of words and some scum use this sort of thing to interface with the thread
Ok; I get it; I do have one question though.
And this feels a bit like day1 deja vu but:
you once again react to a post of mine by latching more to its form rather than its content, but then you don't do much with the content itself, which I feel isn't aligned with your claimed willingness to sort people and broaden your search.
And by that I mean, what do you think of the points I raised about Egix?
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Post Post #1171 (isolation #90) » Wed May 08, 2019 10:24 pm

Post by Exilon »

I feel gaslighted. Preface, I *hate* feeling gaslighted.
In post 1157, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1128, Exilon wrote:Ok; I get it; I do have one question though.
And this feels a bit like day1 deja vu but:
you once again react to a post of mine by latching more to its form rather than its content, but then you don't do much with the content itself, which I feel isn't aligned with your claimed willingness to sort people and broaden your search.
And by that I mean, what do you think of the points I raised about Egix?
sometimes to me the form/tone/timing/writing style of the post is just as important (if not more important!) than the actual content of the post. for that post the tone stood out to me

wrt to the content -

i don't know. it just kinda ~is~
i don't find much of what you said to be compelling or convincing, and like i said, a lot of it feels iioa to me. like you're summarizing his posts and trajectory more than anything else? idk.
and drawing conclusions, obviously.
In post 1043, Exilon wrote:and I get what CDB is going for here and reading him as bullheaded town but I'm not so sure right now especially considering where Egix decided to go instead (inactives).
Nvm the fact he manages to keep his SR on CDB and keep his vote on him
while at the same time quoting him for truth (in 165, as mentioned previously) which I find quite ironic.
i feel like u kinda assume that if egix didn't explicitly state a change of read on cdb (or doesn't unovte him) he's still reading him the same way and you use this to highlight the oddity of egix qft'ing cdb while at the same time scumreading him.
i'm not sure egix was still scumreading him in ; it doesn't quite feel like a post someone usually says to a scumread

so like i don't particularly agree with this observation, because it's based on an assumption that i don't think is necessarily true
YOUR OWN assumption is also not necessarily true, especially because two posts later in his words are still aligned with a CDB scumread. And still voting for him.

which is a problem in itself that because if people have to assume how your reads changed and it's not telegraphed clearly it's harming town and scum can easily use that for easy escapes when confronted with them.

It's like driving down the road without using turn signals.

Even without regarding the above, the worst part to me is how you ignore Egix's own words about the subject:
In post 1130, Egix96 wrote:[...]
In post 1068, Exilon wrote: a) from your own posting and actions your suspicion of cdb was fading at the same time you were calling him scummy. Like literally the same post. Even putting that aside, you're not justfiying here how exactly your suspicion faded. You're just saying it did, which is the same conclusion me and anyone can reach by looking at your ISO.

b) What is this even addressing? Once again, you're just stating what happened. Worst to me is that you're not even addressing the main reason of why I found that to be dissonant.
a) IIRC the main reason why my CDB suspicion faded was because of him moving his vote in . I was finding it hard to see why he would do that as scum when he could have just kept pushing me.


b) I thought your issue with me there was that I was keeping my vote on Rui despite being suspicious of Inferno. If your actual main issue was that my reasoning seemed better re:Inferno, then... well like, that's just your opinion, man?
[...]
Which annoys me to
absolutely
no end because a) you're discrediting my interpretation of it, which is actually correct; b) you ignored the information that you had available to do so.

Do NOT gaslight me.
In post 1043, Exilon wrote:Like I'm not saying scum can't have genuine scumreads but if you're not sure of who's scummy (as Egix had stated previously), you're probably not going to give as much credit to your top suspicion's scumreads.
same with this ^^^^ i don't know if cdb is still egix's top suspicion's scumread at that point, he isn't really acting like he is really
read above.
In post 1043, Exilon wrote:205 and 206 are extreme fencesitting (still no unvote from CDB), and currently read to me as someone who is trying to set up a move to an eventual Rui wagon;
fence-sitting, sure, but i can see town making those posts too
In post 1043, Exilon wrote:233 is just amazing where egix follows CDB's suggestion and moves his vote over to Rui. See how his reasoning didn't actually evolve from 205 and 206?
again, this s=isn't like impossible for town to do; town do this all the time
like yes, you can look at this from a scummy angle, but it's not an inherently scummy action
What do town do often? Sheep a wagon from their previously top scumread?
At that point IIRC Egix had been voting CDB, and his suspicion had been fading, but then he sheeps that vote? Like there aren't only 3 people in this game. Either CDB went from top scumread to top townread or something along those lines, and everyone inbetween was null and not worth trusting, or Egix's own suspicion wasn't even that strong to begin with.
Which is fine and possibly town, but it's still a terrible look for him.
In post 1043, Exilon wrote:347 sees Egix completely drop his SR on CDB without even a single mention to that change, or where it came from. In here, the main SRs are Rui and CBY, and suddenly Urap2 shows up as "third, I guess..."

But then Egix also drops this read on Urap2 in 503
iioa + town does this
In post 1043, Exilon wrote:In the eve of these great wagons, Egix changes a read on Inferno in 603; in 702 however he leaves quite explicit that RuiRui is the "closest thing to a scumread",
which seems contrarian to his opinion on Inferno which at the very least had more substance to it than the reasoning he had for ruirui.


Jump forward another 200 or so posts and in 909
you get what could be an attempt to further analyse Inferno? 910 also does the same, but it's funny because it seems to me that Egix misreads Ausuka here, as Ausuka points out soon after
. Egix doesn't bother following up on this.

There is some back and forth here between Egix and Inferno
which isn't really accusatory in any way and is very dialogical between one or the other (see 959, and omce again I'm left to wonder if the scumread on Inferno was also dropped without real mention.
more iioa. and why does imply that the scumread on inferno was dropped
Bolded is analysis and interpretation, very obviously, so I don't even know what you're looking at here that makes you say that. You keep invoking this IIOA thing without regard to the purpose of the information which is really dismissive and akin to a fallacy fallacy.

wrt to that last question, I could have worded that better. It's not that implies the SR was dropped, but rather the whole exchange. 959 is example of the dialogue.
In post 1043, Exilon wrote:In summary, Egix's reads have been made for show,
are non-commital, weak, and inconsistent between themselves.
His voting (and lack thereof) supports a scum agenda.
i still don't know if this is inherently scum-indicative really
i'm also not sure i agree with u that egix' reads ahve been made for show

so like overall i'm ehhhh about the content of this post; i don't find it very compelling. i feel like u summarize egix' iso and describe how his reads change as being scummy when i don't think it inherently is

so like idk. the content just kinda is. i can tell u put a lot of time/effort into it but like i don't agree with most of it or find it novel or an interesting approach to the game.

i do think the way you approached it looks liek the way i post as scum sometimes tho, which is why i hgihlighted that to begin with
And now you're strawmanning. My main conclusion is that the way he's been playing supports a scum agenda, which justifies a vote. It's literally there, written just outside of your bolding.

I do hope your vote isn't the byproduct of your projecting.
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Post Post #1195 (isolation #91) » Thu May 09, 2019 8:29 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1191, Ausuka wrote:
In post 948, bob3141 wrote:
In post 945, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 914, Exilon wrote:So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?
I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town ()
URAP2: Garmr is town (, ), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum ()
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town () and CDB town ()
Ausuka: CDB is town (, )
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him... :dead:

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this. :neutral:

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?
So are you saying you kill CBH because allot of people though he was town?
I think this is a stretchy reason to push sasha also and looks forced. Sasha looks back and says that people townread CDB more than Garmr, and for whatever reason bob decides to take it as Sasha killing CDB because of that reason? This doesn't seem like a genuine interpretation of events.

VOTE: bob

I think I like this lynch more than Sashaddin now.
It isn't and I think I called him out for it. Gotta check if he actually addressed it actually, thanks for mentioning it
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Post Post #1196 (isolation #92) » Thu May 09, 2019 8:37 am

Post by Exilon »

Ah, here we go:
In post 974, Exilon wrote:Also I want to quickly address this
In post 950, bob3141 wrote:Think we got sash in a freudian slip. Were he prety much agued the reason that he as mafia killed CHB over gamr

No. It's really not a freudian slip. Hell he just disproved his own thesis and it was all public, so unless it was 100% fake, which is what you have to accuse him of in order to say this, this is just false.
He doesn't come back to this, but I think that's expected considering there were a lot of parallell conversations happening at once atm

Also, I can't find any other mention to the possibility that I'm scum in the Rui wagon, for some reason...? did I miss something?
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Post Post #1198 (isolation #93) » Thu May 09, 2019 8:44 am

Post by Exilon »

Fuck I lol'd
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Post Post #1199 (isolation #94) » Thu May 09, 2019 8:45 am

Post by Exilon »

But I doi have to say that I can see Bob being misguided town and for now that's where I'm leaning
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Post Post #1208 (isolation #95) » Thu May 09, 2019 12:17 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 1200, Sashaddin wrote:
In post 1196, Exilon wrote:Ah, here we go:
In post 974, Exilon wrote:Also I want to quickly address this
In post 950, bob3141 wrote:Think we got sash in a freudian slip. Were he prety much agued the reason that he as mafia killed CHB over gamr

No. It's really not a freudian slip. Hell he just disproved his own thesis and it was all public, so unless it was 100% fake, which is what you have to accuse him of in order to say this, this is just false.
He doesn't come back to this, but I think that's expected considering there were a lot of parallell conversations happening at once atm

Also, I can't find any other mention to the possibility that I'm scum in the Rui wagon, for some reason...? did I miss something?
Was I the one supposed to come back to this?
No, Bob. And not really "supposed to come back to", he just didn't
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Post Post #1234 (isolation #96) » Fri May 10, 2019 1:15 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1211, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1171, Exilon wrote:and drawing conclusions, obviously.
a) i'm not gaslighting you, that's kind of a weird thing ot accuse me tbh? like why do you think i'm lying to you about your motives/analysis instead of just ... sharing what i think about it?

b) no offense but i don't think any of the conclusions you draw are really like ... noteworthy, or indicative of original town thought. they're all a lot more summarize-y than anything else
a) #ISaidIFelt
What I meant is I feel you're dismissing the analysis in a way that comes across as a bit dishonest to me. At certain points you agree with the analysis I make but you still don't see the conclusions as more likely and while it's all a a bit ambiguous (in the sense is actions can be mostly seen from both perspectives it seems), your conclusion to the content is basically "well I can see town doing that, sooooooooooooo"
Which is basically the argument you bring up for me, "I can see myself making posts like that as scum, sooooooo", (which is already terrible enough on its own, re: projecting) and then you vote for me, and not him, so it all feels like unfairly biased for what is essentially you being arbitrary about it. If we're both nullreads to you, what is tilting you to be pushing me instead of him? Projection? Bias? What am I missing here?

b) K, lol
In post 1171, Exilon wrote:YOUR OWN assumption is also not necessarily true, especially because two posts later in 167 his words are still aligned with a CDB scumread. And still voting for him.
my assumption might not be true, sure. yours might not be either, that's thing.
you'll also notice that i didn't say that egix said he wasn't scumreading channel anymore, but that i said i *coudln't tell* if egix was still scumreading channel. my point is that i couldn't tell what egix's read was and that i thus couldn't tell if whether or not your assumption was valid
In post 1171, Exilon wrote:Even without regarding the above, the worst part to me is how you ignore Egix's own words about the subject:
...
you do realize that is after , right?
i hadn't read that far yet
I want to apologize for this, I confused the posts. Let me reframe the question, so hopefully you can address it:
His latest post confirms my interpretation and denies yours. Essentially, he was sheeping his top scumread. Town does this??
In post 1171, Exilon wrote:What do town do often? Sheep a wagon from their previously top scumread?
At that point IIRC Egix had been voting CDB, and his suspicion had been fading, but then he sheeps that vote? Like there aren't only 3 people in this game. Either CDB went from top scumread to top townread or something along those lines, and everyone inbetween was null and not worth trusting,
or Egix's own suspicion wasn't even that strong to begin with.

Which is fine and possibly town, but it's still a terrible look for him.
i think it was the bolded. and sure, it's a terrible look. i don't think it's inherently scummy tho; i think town do this sort of thing too (esp. in rvs when reads aren't necessarily established yet)
In post 1171, Exilon wrote:Bolded is analysis and interpretation, very obviously, so I don't even know what you're looking at here that makes you say that. You keep invoking this IIOA thing without regard to the purpose of the information which is really dismissive and akin to a fallacy fallacy.
it feels like a summary more than anything else to me
It's objectively not just a summary, so this looks like you're compelled to dismiss the whole thing because you don't want to have to address it too deeply.

To reiterate, I post a summary + analysis;
You say it's information instead of analysis, which is a content-argument;
I apply that logic to show it's not, disproving your claim, which should force you to reconsider it instead of dismissing it;
You change into an emotion-argument to keep dismissing it.

My point here isn't what is or isn't, it's how you're doing it.
In post 1171, Exilon wrote:And now you're strawmanning. My main conclusion is that the way he's been playing supports a scum agenda, which justifies a vote. It's literally there, written just outside of your bolding.

I do hope your vote isn't the byproduct of your projecting.
i disagree that anything you've written proves that egix's reads are just for show
you've shown that he's doing things that scum can do, sure. most of the things you've highlightd i also think are *entirely* possible to come from town, and i don't see any particularly reason to believe why it's more likely these things came from scum!egix than town!egix.
i don't think you've demonstrated scum motivation here (ie specifically in the sense of showing why you think this is *more* likely to come from scum than town).

what exactly do u mean by 'supporting a scum agenda'?
this circles back to the beginning so I won't repeat myself except to say I get that you find my case on Egix to be null-indicative at best.
By supporting a scum agenda I mean his actions have been harmful to town.
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Post Post #1249 (isolation #97) » Sat May 11, 2019 3:07 am

Post by Exilon »

Im vla until Tuesday, sorry guys
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Post Post #1335 (isolation #98) » Mon May 13, 2019 10:24 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 1261, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1234, Exilon wrote:a) #ISaidIFelt
What I meant is I feel you're dismissing the analysis in a way that comes across as a bit dishonest to me. At certain points you agree with the analysis I make but you still don't see the conclusions as more likely and while it's all a a bit ambiguous (in the sense is actions can be mostly seen from both perspectives it seems), your conclusion to the content is basically "well I can see town doing that, sooooooooooooo"
Which is basically the argument you bring up for me, "I can see myself making posts like that as scum, sooooooo", (which is already terrible enough on its own, re: projecting) and then you vote for me, and not him, so it all feels like unfairly biased for what is essentially you being arbitrary about it. If we're both nullreads to you, what is tilting you to be pushing me instead of him? Projection? Bias? What am I missing here?
i didn't really agree with your analysis so much as saying that i don't know if it's wrong but i don't see any compelling reason why i should believe your pov more than my own

and most of what you're drawing out i don't think is ai here so like ... why should i find your case compelling
Cause you have no better options at the moment should be a fairly compelling reason. Like, if everyone's a nullread to you, you have to make some concessions on what you're willing to scumread. Otherwise, you're just going to fence sit and that's guaranteed to not lynch scum. I recognize this as obvious to you so I don't know why you're not pushing more, instead of saying you're trying to.


i don't entirely understand the dichtomy you're drawing (ie why you're saying i'm being unfairly biased in voting you over him)

i don't see any reason to scumread him. i think you're trying to make him look scummy off of things that arent' ai. so i'm voting you.

Let me get this straight. The stated reasons you're voting me are:
a) My cases were reminiscent of your own posts when you're scum; (ie projecting)
b) You believe I'm purposefully trying to paint Egix in a scummier light.

It's clear that we're disagreeing on how AI his actions can be. I think it's likely there's scum mindset there somewhere, you don't. That's fine.

But to jump from there to "I think you're just intently trying to paint him in scummier light" is your own bias interjecting; to use your own words, you've provided no compelling evidence for why that interpretation is more likely than me having a genuine scumread and trying to build on it.

So basically I can use your own internal and stated logic to show that your reasons for voting me are no better than whatever reasons you may have for voting Egix.
To you, we're both nullreads. His actions can be seen as scummy, so can mine. They can both come from town. But you're giving him the benefit of the doubt, and not me.

I'm not saying I want you to vote me over him or anything of the sort, I just think this is very hypocritical of you and wondering if it could come from a townie mindset as easily as it comes from a scum mindset.
In post 1234, Exilon wrote:His latest post confirms my interpretation and denies yours. Essentially, he was sheeping his top scumread. Town does this??
tbh yes sometimes
but yes, i agree, his sheeping does look worse in that context
Let me put it another way:
How much more likely is it that this comes from town than scum?
In post 1234, Exilon wrote:To reiterate, I post a summary + analysis;
You say it's information instead of analysis, which is a content-argument;
I apply that logic to show it's not, disproving your claim, which should force you to reconsider it instead of dismissing it;
You change into an emotion-argument to keep dismissing it.

My point here isn't what is or isn't, it's how you're doing it.
i mean it was always an emotion-argument, sometimes i just actually attach words to the emotions instead of just declaring things to be bad on gut

i read it multiple times. i don't think it's really analysis beyond summary
I'm over this. Your subjective opinion is irrelevant to what is an objective argument and you shouldn't be mixing both, but whatever.
If you don't feel the analysis is substantial, then that's valid.
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Post Post #1338 (isolation #99) » Tue May 14, 2019 6:07 am

Post by Exilon »

What's AfR
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Post Post #1369 (isolation #100) » Tue May 14, 2019 9:34 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1365, Detective Pikachu wrote:
In post 1362, u r a person 2 wrote:that I'm voting here day 1
who wants to play "is this a townslip?"

does scum forget that we're on day 2? lol
I do

No
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Post Post #1371 (isolation #101) » Tue May 14, 2019 9:43 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1357, Detective Pikachu wrote:Well I'm not at all in love with my initial solve but it's something like this

Exilon
Sasha
HRG
urap / inferno
Egix
bob
Garmr
Ausuka
Skitter

I have basically 0 confidence right now that I don't have scum in the top 3 or that I have more than 2 scum in the bottom 3, that's just kinda the reverse order I think I'd lynch in at this moment

it's somewhere to start anyway
I like your analysis and your reads and I agree with most of it in general.

Skitter I would currently like to push a bit more, but I'm not convinced on a lynch over Egix or even Ausuka (which I need to reread to get a more solid impression).
Garmr as I've said before is confusing me slightly and I'm not sure how I can clear him, but so far I think his contributions have been meaningful and valuable.
Bob is still reading as town making an effort if at times misguided. Of note is the "real time" analysis he did where he kept posting before finishing his whole thought process which I thought couldn't possibly come from scum (especially new scum), but I'm very open to different interpretations of this.
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Post Post #1373 (isolation #102) » Tue May 14, 2019 9:44 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1370, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1365, Detective Pikachu wrote:
In post 1362, u r a person 2 wrote:that I'm voting here day 1
who wants to play "is this a townslip?"

does scum forget that we're on day 2? lol
No, I make that error as any alignment. There are plenty of excellent reasons to town read me this game, but that is not one.
me:
"oh, so humble and honest-
nvm"

#humblebrag
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Post Post #1393 (isolation #103) » Wed May 15, 2019 12:52 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1385, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1335, Exilon wrote:Cause you have no better options at the moment should be a fairly compelling reason. Like, if everyone's a nullread to you, you have to make some concessions on what you're willing to scumread. Otherwise, you're just going to fence sit and that's guaranteed to not lynch scum. I recognize this as obvious to you so I don't know why you're not pushing more, instead of saying you're trying to.
...
that's why i'm pushing you?

i'm aware that i don't have enough scumreads, and i'm aware that i have too many nullreads; in fact, i'm pretty sure i explicitly said this was why i was pushing you, more than once

and i'm a little wary of people in my 'would lynch' group pushing other people in my 'woud lynch' group
I'm very aware you said it and you justified it, I didn't miss it and I mentioned that you said it.
I just don't feel pushed at all, and for that matter, I don't think you're really pushing as much as you say you want to or actually do. That's my point.

Cause you stated you wanted to push your nullreads, and that's Egix/Exi/Ausuka, but then voted me *after* my read on him, and then voted Ausuka and that's... been sitting there, I guess, cause you've done nothing with it (no interaction, no discussion, it's literally just there), like wtf?

What I want to say is that your "pushes", if you wanna call them that, have not been proactive in any way. They're reactive and you're not doing much with them. You go as far as defending one of the people you had nullread on that you stated you would like to push, without even TR'ing him.

to add insult to injury, you shift votes mid-discussion with me to Ausuka, not because Ausuka is scummy or should be pushed (from what I gather), but because maybe the wagon on me isn't taking off?

All of this is just so incredibly incoherent to me from a town standpoint. It's clearly contributing to the stall that you're pointing out the game is in as well.

In post 1335, Exilon wrote:But to jump from there to "I think you're just intently trying to paint him in scummier light" is your own bias interjecting; to use your own words, you've provided no compelling evidence for why that interpretation is more likely than me having a genuine scumread and trying to build on it.
i mean, again, most of what you're calling him out on isn't ai

so yeah, when i read a big post calling him out for nai things, i think that you're trying to paint him in a bad light. that's why i'm having trouble seeing your case being townie.

i don't think the scumread is genuine because the things you're calling him out for aren't actually scummy
I believe that's the issue right there.
I genuinely think his posts fit with a Scum!Egix world. There's nothing in Egix's ISO that makes me go "oh, this definitely comes from town mindset". On the other hand, there's a few things that make me go "uh, this feels like it's scum mindset". It clicks into place for me. Maybe it doesn't for you. That's valid. But you're taking that and instead of thinking "maybe I really just don't get what he's seeing" (for whatever reason), you're going "he's not seeing anything, he's just faking".

From an objective standpoint I think the first option is more plausible than the first. But that's your choice to make. And we'll see how it turns out.

In post 1335, Exilon wrote:Let me put it another way:
How much more likely is it that this comes from town than scum?
honestly, i don't know
i do think that town does this
i also think, now that we've clarified that he was in fact still scumreading cdb, that it is more likely to come from scum, and that you do have a point here
And... are you going to do anything with this info?
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Post Post #1394 (isolation #104) » Wed May 15, 2019 12:52 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1385, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1335, Exilon wrote:Cause you have no better options at the moment should be a fairly compelling reason. Like, if everyone's a nullread to you, you have to make some concessions on what you're willing to scumread. Otherwise, you're just going to fence sit and that's guaranteed to not lynch scum. I recognize this as obvious to you so I don't know why you're not pushing more, instead of saying you're trying to.
...
that's why i'm pushing you?

i'm aware that i don't have enough scumreads, and i'm aware that i have too many nullreads; in fact, i'm pretty sure i explicitly said this was why i was pushing you, more than once

and i'm a little wary of people in my 'would lynch' group pushing other people in my 'woud lynch' group
I'm very aware you said it and you justified it, I didn't miss it and I mentioned that you said it.
I just don't feel pushed at all, and for that matter, I don't think you're really pushing as much as you say you want to or actually do. That's my point.

Cause you stated you wanted to push your nullreads, and that's Egix/Exi/Ausuka, but then voted me *after* my read on him, and then voted Ausuka and that's... been sitting there, I guess, cause you've done nothing with it (no interaction, no discussion, it's literally just there), like wtf?

What I want to say is that your "pushes", if you wanna call them that, have not been proactive in any way. They're reactive and you're not doing much with them. You go as far as defending one of the people you had nullread on that you stated you would like to push, without even TR'ing him.

to add insult to injury, you shift votes mid-discussion with me to Ausuka, not because Ausuka is scummy or should be pushed (from what I gather), but because maybe the wagon on me isn't taking off?

All of this is just so incredibly incoherent to me from a town standpoint. It's clearly contributing to the stall that you're pointing out the game is in as well.

In post 1335, Exilon wrote:But to jump from there to "I think you're just intently trying to paint him in scummier light" is your own bias interjecting; to use your own words, you've provided no compelling evidence for why that interpretation is more likely than me having a genuine scumread and trying to build on it.
i mean, again, most of what you're calling him out on isn't ai

so yeah, when i read a big post calling him out for nai things, i think that you're trying to paint him in a bad light. that's why i'm having trouble seeing your case being townie.

i don't think the scumread is genuine because the things you're calling him out for aren't actually scummy
I believe that's the issue right there.
I genuinely think his posts fit with a Scum!Egix world. There's nothing in Egix's ISO that makes me go "oh, this definitely comes from town mindset". On the other hand, there's a few things that make me go "uh, this feels like it's scum mindset". It clicks into place for me. Maybe it doesn't for you. That's valid. But you're taking that and instead of thinking "maybe I really just don't get what he's seeing" (for whatever reason), you're going "he's not seeing anything, he's just faking".

From an objective standpoint I think the first option is more plausible than the first. But that's your choice to make. And we'll see how it turns out.

In post 1335, Exilon wrote:Let me put it another way:
How much more likely is it that this comes from town than scum?
honestly, i don't know
i do think that town does this
i also think, now that we've clarified that he was in fact still scumreading cdb, that it is more likely to come from scum, and that you do have a point here
And... are you going to do anything with this info?
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Post Post #1395 (isolation #105) » Wed May 15, 2019 12:52 am

Post by Exilon »

fuck. sorry for doublepost.
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Post Post #1402 (isolation #106) » Wed May 15, 2019 1:58 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1396, skitter30 wrote:If you want a line-by-line response i can do that, but not till i'm at a pc(much) later today

I think that you're basically using this argument with me as a way to stay engaged with the thread and to look busy - since this argument started this is basically what you've been posting about, and what your content is about.

But despite this, you're not actually doing anything about it - vote me if you think i'm scum, don't spend a week writing walls in my direction and dancing around the read.
I am doing something about it, I'm talking with you about things I find extremely relevant to get a better read on you. I've said this before too, I wouldn't lynch you right now over Egix, as I find he's more likely scum than you are, taking into account his answers. If I were scum trust me I would have changed my vote already instead of spending time discussing your mindset.
(I believe there's scum in exilon/garmr byw)

Also a lot of the things you're calling me out on a personality thing; we have very different definitions of pushing (as i went over already with hrg iirc)
See this is extremely relevant to me especially in conjunction with Urap2's insight wrt your playstyle.
Kinda hard to interact with ausuka more when she hasn't really been posting. And of course i voted ausuka cuz i think she should be pushed, why would you say i voted hef 'not because she's scummy or should be pushed'? And yeah i at least partially switched off of you since it wasn't getting traction. Thjs is scummh because ....

I also don't think it's fair to attribute the stall in the game to me given that i'm easily one of the most active players ffs.
It is also very hard to interact with someone without sending some questions or talking points their way, yet here we are

Also; contributing != attributing
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Post Post #1407 (isolation #107) » Wed May 15, 2019 3:00 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1404, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1402, Exilon wrote:I am doing something about it, I'm talking with you about things I find extremely relevant to get a better read on you. I've said this before too, I wouldn't lynch you right now over Egix, as I find he's more likely scum than you are, taking into account his answers. If I were scum trust me I would have changed my vote already instead of spending time discussing your mindset.
Ngl i did tell garmr to vote me at least in part to see if you'd hop on; the fact that you didnt is +town imo

What do u think about ausuka btw?
I need to give both her and Bob a reread. Ausuka's interactions with Day 1 had me townleaning on her, Day 2 so far hasn't been productive in that regard.
Wrt Bob, I want to take Urap2's comment into account and check for a scum fit.

I'll try to do this in the next 24 hours if possible.
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Post Post #1420 (isolation #108) » Wed May 15, 2019 7:28 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1418, bob3141 wrote:
In post 1376, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 1371, Exilon wrote:Of note is the "real time" analysis he did where he kept posting before finishing his whole thought process which I thought couldn't possibly come from scum (especially new scum), but I'm very open to different interpretations of this.
Like I was discussing with skitter earlier, the open ended analysis done over time (and with little-to-no strongly held conclusions at the end) was precisely how I played my second scum game.

Obviously, my meta isn't his meta, but I don't think it's town-indicative
That is bit of logical fallacy. Just because you can do it as scum doesn't mean town can't do it. In fact your argument itself admits that its unreliable to judge me on your own meta. When you admit you do not know my meta.

The most you could actually push you argument would be that my post NAI. Since you once attempted to fake such a style as mafia. So that I could be genuine town or be from scum.

Instead you try discredit the hole thing. And say that it is evidence that im scum?
Bob, it seems you keep skewing and recontextualizing what others are saying in order to serve your own interests. This is the second time you've done this that I've noticed right away. The first time you didn't address it again.

So to put this back into its context, saying it is NAI is precisely what he's doing here. He's not discrediting you. The post you quoted is a reply to me where I said that it was town-indicative, and he said "no, scum also do that".

Where does he even say that it is evidence you're scum??
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Post Post #1487 (isolation #109) » Wed May 15, 2019 12:47 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 1484, u r a person 2 wrote:I see no reason not to believe the claim. If he doesn't hit scum with inferno tomorrow, we can direct his next attempt
me rn
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Post Post #1533 (isolation #110) » Thu May 16, 2019 6:24 am

Post by Exilon »

I finished reading Ausuka. Overall, it feels genuine and townie, and genuinely lost Day 2, whereas Day 1 there's a bigger effort in analysis; and there's a reduced number of things that ping me the wrong way. The few that do, however, do so strongly, and pose a few questions.

Ok:

I don't think the Ruirui jump Day 1 is indicative of anything really.

To me,
the strongest argument for Ausuka being scum
is that she quickly distanced herself from scumhunting / pushing actually "strong" slots (I'm talking about the vote on skitter early day 1 that was followed by a shift to Sash) and seems to be confortable being indecisive between what are arguable lynch baits like Sash and Bob. There's some evidence I find compelling for this narrative (in Day 2), mentioned below.

Her vote and push Day 1 on Sash is pretty reasonable to me and is an interesting VCA with a lot of theorycrafting which isn't all terribly valuable without much follow up from Ausuka in the future and I find it strange that there wasn't a similar effort made for RuiRui's wagon which in hindsight makes me feel this was mostly made for show.

There's another thing that jumped at me while reading her ISO and that is a very distinct silence in regards to any type of read on Egix. By this I mean that you can find Egix being mentioned a bit, and interacted with, and at one point paired up with "possible scum teams" (see 292 above) and yet Ausuka never once takes this lead and tries to go further with it, and this dissonance is especially prevalent in .

Context: in Egix appears as "would lynch" right after Bob and even Skitter. At this point Egix hasn't said much in terms of interaction or been pushed outisde my own case on him.

And yet, says "exi feels town". Ok, so I'm town and I'm voting for a guy that you probably want to sort and never had any particular townread for, and you're not taking the chance to wagon him, why? There's no townie reason to not do so, unless he just shows in 1305 as a scapegoat and fabrication.

This post is relevant to me for another reason, and that is that it doesn't seem coherent with the way Ausuka judged Bob's case and reasoning. The way she jumps on him, when he seems to be clearly misunderstanding, isn't toally in line to the type of benefit of doubt she appears to give me. This is obviously a stretch to me, but mostly this is the type of thing that I feel Ausuka has been latching on in order to justify a vote.

Sash Day 1, Sash early Day 2 with the whole "Garmr isn't dead therefore scum" thing, Bob's rundown case, to me it feels as Scum!Ausuka almost being relieved that there's something she can argue on and vote people for, whereas town Ausuka would have probably been looking elsewhere and acting on some of her gut feelins, say Egix and even Skitter.

On the other hand, there's a level of incoherence here stemming from Ausuka realizing that Bob being scum probably means that Sash isn't, and that her whole day 1 crumbles to dust. I feel scum would be paying attention to this and probably would have highlighted it sooner but I'm also open to interpretations of this.


Ausuka, a few questions:
a) Why din't you wagon Egix when you read my case on him?
b) what's your *actual* read on Egix? Why?
c) Who are currently your strongest townreads, and why?
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Post Post #1534 (isolation #111) » Thu May 16, 2019 6:24 am

Post by Exilon »

I wasn't able to get to Bob yet and that's probably only happening tomorrow real time.
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Post Post #1558 (isolation #112) » Thu May 16, 2019 12:13 pm

Post by Exilon »

@skitter
I mean that actually doesn't surprise me as I was thinking of your feedback when going over it, and so I tweaked my writing approach a bit
Tried to focus on the absolute key points that needed addressing.

If anything it just adds to your reaction to Egix case being genuine
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Post Post #1561 (isolation #113) » Thu May 16, 2019 12:21 pm

Post by Exilon »

Quick impression tbh I'm feeling my jimmies being rustled by this repeat of bob voting immediately after Garmr on a wagon (CDB, day 1)
that's rly weird especially considering Garmr's claim
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Post Post #1571 (isolation #114) » Thu May 16, 2019 1:00 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 1566, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1561, Exilon wrote:Quick impression tbh I'm feeling my jimmies being rustled by this repeat of bob voting immediately after Garmr on a wagon (CDB, day 1)
that's rly weird especially considering Garmr's claim
What about the claim makes it weird?
Garmr hid behind Bob
It's associative
It's too many associations for it to be a coincidence
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Post Post #1607 (isolation #115) » Fri May 17, 2019 6:07 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1602, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1533, Exilon wrote:I finished reading Ausuka. Overall, it feels genuine and townie, and genuinely lost Day 2, whereas Day 1 there's a bigger effort in analysis; and there's a reduced number of things that ping me the wrong way. The few that do, however, do so strongly, and pose a few questions.

Ok:

I don't think the Ruirui jump Day 1 is indicative of anything really.

To me,
the strongest argument for Ausuka being scum
is that she quickly distanced herself from scumhunting / pushing actually "strong" slots (I'm talking about the vote on skitter early day 1 that was followed by a shift to Sash) and seems to be confortable being indecisive between what are arguable lynch baits like Sash and Bob. There's some evidence I find compelling for this narrative (in Day 2), mentioned below.

Her vote and push Day 1 on Sash is pretty reasonable to me and is an interesting VCA with a lot of theorycrafting which isn't all terribly valuable without much follow up from Ausuka in the future and I find it strange that there wasn't a similar effort made for RuiRui's wagon which in hindsight makes me feel this was mostly made for show.

There's another thing that jumped at me while reading her ISO and that is a very distinct silence in regards to any type of read on Egix. By this I mean that you can find Egix being mentioned a bit, and interacted with, and at one point paired up with "possible scum teams" (see 292 above) and yet Ausuka never once takes this lead and tries to go further with it, and this dissonance is especially prevalent in .

Context: in Egix appears as "would lynch" right after Bob and even Skitter. At this point Egix hasn't said much in terms of interaction or been pushed outisde my own case on him.

And yet, says "exi feels town". Ok, so I'm town and I'm voting for a guy that you probably want to sort and never had any particular townread for, and you're not taking the chance to wagon him, why? There's no townie reason to not do so, unless he just shows in 1305 as a scapegoat and fabrication.

This post is relevant to me for another reason, and that is that it doesn't seem coherent with the way Ausuka judged Bob's case and reasoning. The way she jumps on him, when he seems to be clearly misunderstanding, isn't toally in line to the type of benefit of doubt she appears to give me. This is obviously a stretch to me, but mostly this is the type of thing that I feel Ausuka has been latching on in order to justify a vote.

Sash Day 1, Sash early Day 2 with the whole "Garmr isn't dead therefore scum" thing, Bob's rundown case, to me it feels as Scum!Ausuka almost being relieved that there's something she can argue on and vote people for, whereas town Ausuka would have probably been looking elsewhere and acting on some of her gut feelins, say Egix and even Skitter.

On the other hand, there's a level of incoherence here stemming from Ausuka realizing that Bob being scum probably means that Sash isn't, and that her whole day 1 crumbles to dust. I feel scum would be paying attention to this and probably would have highlighted it sooner but I'm also open to interpretations of this.


Ausuka, a few questions:
a) Why din't you wagon Egix when you read my case on him?
b) what's your *actual* read on Egix? Why?
c) Who are currently your strongest townreads, and why?
a) - because I was voting Sashaddin, who in my eyes was scum and had a huge wagon. your argument seems to be that i would jump at the chance to wagon a nullread when my actual scumread was at l-2 and looked fairly likely to get lynched - i wouldn't.
b) my read on egix was null at the time you made your case. it switched to scumlean later for reasons in .
c) pika, bob and garmr mechanically, urap and you readswise.

wait wait wait wait what hold up this isn't

a) This vibes me the wrong way; you're saying you'd rather let your vote stay on a wagon that may end the day early (on someone who's already claimed!) instead of using it push on other people? When does town benefit from this? Yes, Sash was at L2? So???????????? Doesn't scum have buddies????? If anything this makes you look WORSE!
b) So you you thought my case came from townie, TR me for it, but didn't agree with it cause Egix was still null, but it changed when he voted for you with what was a reasonable justification. So you're telling us that the timing of his vote vibing you wrong > all other reasons I outlined in my case. No, this narrative isn't making sense in my head.
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Post Post #1644 (isolation #116) » Fri May 17, 2019 1:21 pm

Post by Exilon »

That's also going to make for a great sig

Couldn't get to analyzing Bob's ISO properly, and order of the day makes that not an immediate priority.

Options are between Egix, Sash, or Ausuka?
I actually disliked Ausuka's answers to my questions (and the follow up), much more than Egix, in fact. @Great Detective Ryan R- I mean Pikachu, what did you think of ausuka's follow up on my case? I'm biased and having a really hard time getting a conclusive read on it.

Sash is a bit of wildcard but I'll agree that at a certain point Day 2 I he just stopped interacting and was content to not interact and not provide much content, like Garmr said. I do actually think this warrants a lynch, and at very least would unstall lots of players who seem stalled on him (*looks at Ausuka*).

Egix has that one very scummy thing hanging on top of his head that still hasn't been cleared (sheeping top scumread Day1). The rest I could buy as coming from town. That one thing I just can't see it in any other way.

My point here is I can see any merit for any of those three lynches. While I'm afraid that Sash is just town lynch bait waiting to happen, I can't deny that it would actually help part of the group get over whatever scumhunting slump they seem to be blocked at.

Cause looking at it I can see part of Day 3 being devoted to yet another Sash wagon if he remains alive and I bet scum would just love that type of stall.
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Post Post #1680 (isolation #117) » Fri May 17, 2019 11:47 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 1644, Exilon wrote:That's also going to make for a great sig

(...)
I actually disliked Ausuka's answers to my questions (and the follow up), much more than Egix, in fact. @Great Detective Ryan R- I mean Pikachu, what did you think of ausuka's follow up on my case? I'm biased and having a really hard time getting a conclusive read on it.
(...)
Pikachu, pls?
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Post Post #1681 (isolation #118) » Fri May 17, 2019 11:52 pm

Post by Exilon »

Garmr, dude.... are you okay? :/





Spoiler: 1669
In post 1669, Garmr wrote:
In post 1667, Inferno390 wrote:
In post 1658, Garmr wrote:
In post 1656, Detective Pikachu wrote:Exactly, you were in no danger of getting lynched but then sabotaged your options for investigation in the night. And now you're okay dying as a strong town investigative. Your play this game does not reconcile with your claimed role and given your propensity for lulzy nonsense claims as scum that seems like a fairly simple explanation for what's going on.
No that's the dumbest fucking explanation which only proves my point right. Also that was one game where I was a actual motion detector. Also the best lies are in truth. Every scum fake claim came from knowledge of the game I never luzly fake claimed as scum before.

Seems Ic stand something else as well innoncent child hint it's 5 letter word.
In post 1661, Garmr wrote:
In post 1659, Detective Pikachu wrote:I think it would have helped if he started by not rolling scum.
Ok if we flip me now I will flip town I want everyone to ignore detective pikachu since they are obviously a VI as well.

Gamr you are not helping yourself here. You’re really really looking bad. And maybe it’s time for you to accept the fact that your play has been sloppy this game.

Because, with one vote on you, you claimed an investigative role that could result in a double kill of your target gets shot, and then you proceeded to hardclaim your target. Can you not see how poor of a decision that was?
Now given the evidence, I have no choice to take your claim at face value. It makes sense given what you’ve said and how the game has gone.
But what you have done is not anywhere on the spectrum of town-optimal play. So the fact that people are scum reading you for it should be anything but surprising.
Please please please consider the fact that I’m not scum right now. If I’m not scum, where would he scum lie?
If your not scum then this would be my scum reads. I saved this post and decided to post it if I was alive tomorrow and you were town and scum didn't shoot us. Still hasn't been fully edited yet.


Exilon! You may ask, why it's pretty simple. Skitter is acting to strongly about Exilon being town read and she's fighting against it. If skitter is scum and exilon is town why would she fight the lynch? It's because exilon is scum. She's had plenty of time to confirm her opinion to town collective opinion or not push it to dodge criticism about exe being town blocked. She must know she will flip soon being at the bottom of everyone's scum list with no town reads. So she's pushing Exe knowing it won't get a mislynch to make him look better when she flips. If he was town she could just shoot him during the night phase.

In post 436, tris wrote:
VC 1.06
Sashaddin (5):
u r a person 2 , Ausuka , Lil Uzi Vert , bob3141 , Exilon
RuiRui (2):
ChannelDelibird , Egix96
u r a person 2 (2):
Inferno390 , skitter30
Exilon (1):
High Risk Gamble
Garmr (1):
Sashaddin
cbynumber (1):
RuiRui
Inferno390 (1):
Garmr

Not Voting:


With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.


Deadline:
(expired on 2019-05-03 20:00:00)
Also excilons post is the perfect position to bus. This is only if skitter is scum while he could be scum with skitter on his own


I understand 0 of this post
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Post Post #1684 (isolation #119) » Sat May 18, 2019 4:29 am

Post by Exilon »

@pika
Wrt Sash
In post 1644, Exilon wrote:That's also going to make for a great sig
(...)

Sash is a bit of wildcard but I'll agree that at a certain point Day 2 I he just stopped interacting and was content to not interact and not provide much content, like Garmr said. I do actually think this warrants a lynch, and at very least would unstall lots of players who seem stalled on him (*looks at Ausuka*).

(...)

Cause looking at it I can see part of Day 3 being devoted to yet another Sash wagon if he remains alive and I bet scum would just love that type of stall.
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Post Post #1686 (isolation #120) » Sat May 18, 2019 4:56 am

Post by Exilon »

Help me understand your post while we're at it

VOTE: Sash
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Post Post #1689 (isolation #121) » Sat May 18, 2019 5:04 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1687, Garmr wrote:
In post 1686, Exilon wrote:Help me understand your post while we're at it

VOTE: Sash
It relies on you and skitter playing mind games with town and you being really competent as scum. if I'm wrong scum is probably Urap2.
Some *extremely* elaborate mind games
I'm sure there wouldn't even be a need to go all the way into those mindgames
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Post Post #1717 (isolation #122) » Sat May 18, 2019 10:51 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1715, Detective Pikachu wrote:This still stinks of mislynch just not sure who it's correct to derail this onto
Ausuka?
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Post Post #1740 (isolation #123) » Tue May 21, 2019 12:16 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 1737, Ausuka wrote:VOTE: Garmr

I think the chances of garmr scum feeling forced to kill inferno are higher than the chances of garmr being town because I can't see a narrative where garmr as town would just fakeclaim weak hider?
how convenient
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Post Post #1741 (isolation #124) » Tue May 21, 2019 12:16 pm

Post by Exilon »

VOTE: Ausuka
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Post Post #1759 (isolation #125) » Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Post by Exilon »

I KNEW IT
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Post Post #1760 (isolation #126) » Tue May 21, 2019 8:01 pm

Post by Exilon »

But it only occured to me d2
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Post Post #1773 (isolation #127) » Tue May 21, 2019 9:20 pm

Post by Exilon »

I just want Ausuka to actually scumhunt at this moment considering all her SR's have been thrown out the window except for one which is probably just a fallback bus target
But she's conveniently not doing so, what a conundrum!
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Post Post #1780 (isolation #128) » Tue May 21, 2019 11:39 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 1776, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1761, Ausuka wrote:I'm an odd night neapolitan. On n1 I got hrg as vt.

I thought with weak hider, that this setup had a theme of 3 clearing prs and maybe a scum one. But with 3 conf from gamestart my role seems really weird.

Bob, if this is a lie please say so.

@skitter: the urap line was just a joke.
Uhhhhhh i'm even-night detective

(I checked ausuka last night, she has not tried to kill anyone)

I caught that you were softing yesterday, which is why i very randomly and abruptly switched my vote from ausuka to egix and wouldn't say why @detective pikachu

From my pov:

1. Scum nea is about 6000% more likely than town nea
2. Scum probably doesn't check their partner so ausuka's either lying about who they checked or hrg is not aligned with ausuka
3. There's at least one, if not two, scum in peopke who havent claimed (exilon, egix, urap), with egix being the most likely imo
Egix / Ausuka is what I've been getting at ever since late day 2
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Post Post #1782 (isolation #129) » Tue May 21, 2019 11:54 pm

Post by Exilon »

Skitter, how are you still confusing me and egix

Maybe you should stop calling us by our names and ust go growlhite and hot guy with a cool shirt
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Post Post #1784 (isolation #130) » Wed May 22, 2019 12:00 am

Post by Exilon »

I mean I realized but I'm kind of petty like that (and also on the offchance it wasn't clear)


I still think Urap is townie
HRG came across as very townie to me Day 2 and that didn't change much with Gamma, although it's bit more lukewarm there. Mainly I liked their scumhunting efforts and I think they pointed out valid stuff.

The fact that leaves you as scum by POE suggests to me I should be re approaching those two slots with a fresh mindset, which I intend to do today.
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Post Post #1804 (isolation #131) » Wed May 22, 2019 2:08 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1803, u r a person 2 wrote:Can you talk me through the balance problems behind the claims as presented?

I'll go look at the rest later when not on mobile

Egix has been scummy independent of claims all game but we can't get a wagon on him. Probably scum regardless
when did this opinion of yours sprout?
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Post Post #1805 (isolation #132) » Wed May 22, 2019 2:09 am

Post by Exilon »

also am I supposed to claim right now? honest question
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Post Post #1807 (isolation #133) » Wed May 22, 2019 2:20 am

Post by Exilon »

Nevermind, I was under a gut impression that your view on Egix was closer to town due to your reaction to my case, which didn't seem very agreeable, seems like I misinterpreted it somewhat

My memory got tunneled on that and I missed your declared SR on him
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Post Post #1809 (isolation #134) » Wed May 22, 2019 2:27 am

Post by Exilon »

It's just, I know I'm a bit biased but it surprises me how there's actually people that would vote Egix when I posted my case D2 but seems Egix wasn't the actual first choice for people to push then, and so he wasn't really wagoned, and I don't know if that's indicative of something but I feel it should be. I can't logically put into words *why*, and again, this is biased by my own self-importance here, but help me figure this insight out
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Post Post #1812 (isolation #135) » Wed May 22, 2019 2:34 am

Post by Exilon »

VT
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post Post #1817 (isolation #136) » Wed May 22, 2019 3:15 am

Post by Exilon »

@pikachu
In post 1798, u r a person 2 wrote:VT, btw

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Post Post #1833 (isolation #137) » Wed May 22, 2019 12:41 pm

Post by Exilon »

remind me why gamma / ausuka is only one scum
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Post Post #1864 (isolation #138) » Wed May 22, 2019 9:40 pm

Post by Exilon »

I do think Ausuka is capable of giving Gamma a fake clear.
That just makes Gamma's alignment (when based on Ausuka claim) WIFOM for me
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Post Post #1873 (isolation #139) » Thu May 23, 2019 2:58 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1866, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1863, u r a person 2 wrote:tbh, a lot of those vote counts become easier to read once im confirmed town

from any perspective but mine im probably a decent lynch. I'll take that one for the team if I can get a guarantee on an egix lynch tomorrow.
Actually i don't think scum says this ^^^^
I agree with this take.
In post 1868, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1864, Exilon wrote:I do think Ausuka is capable of giving Gamma a fake clear.
That just makes Gamma's alignment (when based on Ausuka claim) WIFOM for me
Why do u think she might fo that

Also exilon doesn't make sense with egix i'm pretty sure

Like the possible number of svumteams is pretty small rn
Actually thinking about it, in a Scum!Ausuka scenario Gamma is much more likely to be scum. I don't think she had many viable targets to use as results for a fakeclaim; going for anyone else still alive would be extremely dangerous (e.g. If she cleared skitter for being a VT she'd be hanged on the spot), but Gamma she can safely clear if he's scum with her. Obviously Egix is not a choice.

As for dead people maybe she could argue a CDB or Inferno investigation, but then post exists. I explicitly asked her what her strongest townreads were. She couldn't even bother placing High Risk or Inferno there, and even her justification ("I didn't want scum to know I had a clear on person x") is extremely weak here because she listed a bunch of different people and she could have easily TR High Risk/Gamma there without any risk to him (it's not like the guy was lurking, he was posting a lot of interesting content imo).
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Post Post #1875 (isolation #140) » Thu May 23, 2019 2:59 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1870, u r a person 2 wrote:I just read ausuka's iso. I guess she could be scum, but if you take away the overexplaining bit, her entire D1 thought processes seem pretty reasonable to me, and they seem like scum hunting.

I'd really rather not lynch a potential pr on the day before they get another check, either. Why would we not wait? If she is town, scum has to choose between killing her tonight to stop the check, and mislynching her tomorrow after the check.

If she's scum, we get the wifom of her 'check' before lynching tomorrow

Egix, on the other hand, I see no reason to wait on.
This does sound reasonable to me.
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Post Post #1876 (isolation #141) » Thu May 23, 2019 3:01 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1874, u r a person 2 wrote:I'm not even sure that the premise, that IC + odd nea + even detective vs 3 goons isn't balanced. It actually seems kind of in line with one shot FV (with multitasking to get him mislynched) + 1 shot loyal neighborizor + vig vs a goon and a follower

1 real check, 1 vig which is only somewhat pro town, and a named townie with a role that nearly ensures they get mislynched is pr

relative power doesn't feel that off between the two games

I'm also not convinced that gamr couldn't have started planning this the moment bob made his first post which was so yikes I basically gave it a too scummy to be scum read

Garmr + Bob scum is actually my only worry right now and is what makes me consider Pikachu's suggestion about lynching Garmr. :/
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Post Post #1891 (isolation #142) » Thu May 23, 2019 4:30 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1877, Garmr wrote:the fact people are considering that me and bob are actually scum makes me long for the old days when the quality was better.
Look, dude, check yourself, this type of comment ain't cute or respectful
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Post Post #1899 (isolation #143) » Thu May 23, 2019 4:42 am

Post by Exilon »

Gamma must speak first

He's been awfully quiet and I want to hear from him.
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Post Post #1901 (isolation #144) » Thu May 23, 2019 5:09 am

Post by Exilon »

So basically you're townreading people based on the fact they're townreading you

okay
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Post Post #1903 (isolation #145) » Thu May 23, 2019 5:13 am

Post by Exilon »

You think you live in a gamestate, with that day 2, where skitter, egix, and me are all scum?
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Post Post #1906 (isolation #146) » Thu May 23, 2019 6:18 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1904, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1901, Exilon wrote:So basically you're townreading people based on the fact they're townreading you

okay
^ This shows that exilon is scum who's just trying to get me dead because if he lynches me instead of Egix today he gets to LyLo. Remember that Egix is my scumbuddy in his eyes, yet he seems so desperate to lynch me today. It should be pretty clear that, in any world where I am town, scum want to lynch me today - my wagon got to l1 very quickly, and three of the players who got me there are scum suspects. It makes sense to see the one who instead helped derail it and is now pushing very likely scum, as the odd-one-out who is pushing a town agenda today.
This is strawmanning 101
And even your strawman is wrong from every angle

is me signalling Egix / Ausuka are scum, it should therefore stand to reason i dont really care who goes first
is me saying I wanna look freshly at urap and Gamma
is me saying I'll happily lynch Egix today
is me considering lynching Garmr as well as an option for today
is me saying I don't want to end the day without Gamma speaking up

Like where the heck are you getting me being desperate to lynch you today? If anyone, you're the one coming across as desperate here and projecting it

In post 1903, Exilon wrote:You think you live in a gamestate, with that day 2, where skitter, egix, and me are all scum?
Yes. There was very limited interest in lynching either you or skitter so it's easy to see the advantage of distancing/bussing (you can pull this against anyone who thinks that the two of you are buddies and the risk of a lynch is pretty minimal.) Egix is a little harder to get around, and I'll admit there was a time I thought you and egix were literally never s/s. However, I think the move does actually make some sense.
Egix, even on early d2 when he wasn't under that much suspicion, is unlikely to make it to endgame.
However, if you bus him, and Egix flips red, that basically gives you a free pass to win, or even vice versa, because you can pull the exact card that you just did! So, I do think it makes sense for scum to do.
About Skitter - you just recycled Garmr's theory here and completely disregarded what was said about it later, and failed to incorporate it here.

About Egix - your wording here seems very peculiar - why was Scum!Egix unlikely to make it to endgame? How do *you* know this?
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Post Post #1908 (isolation #147) » Thu May 23, 2019 7:22 am

Post by Exilon »

VOTE: Egix

Am i town now Ausuka
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Post Post #1909 (isolation #148) » Thu May 23, 2019 8:07 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1907, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1906, Exilon wrote:
In post 1904, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1901, Exilon wrote:So basically you're townreading people based on the fact they're townreading you

okay
^ This shows that exilon is scum who's just trying to get me dead because if he lynches me instead of Egix today he gets to LyLo. Remember that Egix is my scumbuddy in his eyes, yet he seems so desperate to lynch me today. It should be pretty clear that, in any world where I am town, scum want to lynch me today - my wagon got to l1 very quickly, and three of the players who got me there are scum suspects. It makes sense to see the one who instead helped derail it and is now pushing very likely scum, as the odd-one-out who is pushing a town agenda today.
This is strawmanning 101
And even your strawman is wrong from every angle

is me signalling Egix / Ausuka are scum, it should therefore stand to reason i dont really care who goes first
is me saying I wanna look freshly at urap and Gamma
is me saying I'll happily lynch Egix today
is me considering lynching Garmr as well as an option for today
is me saying I don't want to end the day without Gamma speaking up

Like where the heck are you getting me being desperate to lynch you today? If anyone, you're the one coming across as desperate here and projecting it
It's not a strawman. You come into the day calling my garmr push 'convenient', even though it makes perfect sense for a townie to be suspicious of a fakeclaim (which is ironic since you've stated some willingness to lynch him since.) which is demonstrated by Detective's vote on garmr. Even though the day just started, you say that I'm 'not scumhunting' despite the fact that I came into the day voting somebody who I thought was scum who I townread before. And then you make the shot in saying that I shouldn't think that the people voting me are the scumteam; which seems like a really reasonable thing to think considering that I'm almost certainly scum's easiest mislynch here and scum HUGELY benefits from lynching the neapolitan who gets an investigation tomorrow night, today, not to mention 3 out of the 4 wagoners are inside the unconfirmed pool of 4 people. All the while, you've kept your vote on me, along with Egix who is a scumread of yours. So I think it was a reasonable assertion to make that you would like to lynch me today.
You did say that in 1780, yes - but it seems to me that you've been much more keen to lynch me today.
1784- that doesn't really mean anything to me.
I didn't interpret 1875 as you being willing to vote Egix. If it really was that, you should vote him. 1876 I don't really care about because if you're scum it stands to reason that you'd be willing to switch to town!garmr, because that would be an excellent chain of events for you - if we lynch Garmr today, then you can lynch me tomorrow or after Egix and win the game.

Unless I'm forgetting something Egix had one vote when you posted 1899; if he was at l1 that would make sense but as it is I don't get how that applies as a reason to not vote egix.
I called out the fact you were townreading someone just because they were townreading you, which is a valid point to make regardless of me being scum or town, but you avoid addressing the point itself by pointing out that saying that must make me scum, and then spend the rest of the time discussing that topic which has absolutely nothing to do with the fact I pointed out, and doesn't even address it, but you do that as an attempt to invalidate it because I'm scum. That's what a strawman is, but you can call it whatever you want - it doesn't change the fact you tried to dismiss my point rather than adressing it which is scummy as fuck

To make matters worse you even strawman yourself because you start by saying "THIS IS WHY HE'S SCUM" and then you don't actually explain how that post or that point makes me scum, and go on a completely unrelated tangent.

I get the general point you're trying to make here - I seem very intent on mislynching you as a strategy, and I would love to do it TODAY - which might be valid, except, as I've said,.... no, if I were desperate to lynch you I wouldn't be considering other options or waiting around for people to speak up. Also, I was pushing you way before you claimed, so if you're going to use the argument that scum want to lynch you because of your powers you might as well justify my apparent precognitive abilities.

Also, I don't know why you're misrepping me here but I don't think it's likely Garmr is scum. I just agree with detective pika that it's not a bad move for town in order to put scum on a terrible spot and eliminate the offchance they're both scum. It's mechanical and it isn't disadvantegeous *even* if they're actual masons. So I don't need to think he's fakeclaiming for it to be beneficial for town.

Also while we're on this topic
didn't interpret 1875 as you being willing to vote Egix. If it really was that, you should vote him. 1876 I don't really care about because if you're scum it stands to reason that you'd be willing to switch to town!garmr, because that would be an excellent chain of events for you - if we lynch Garmr today, then you can lynch me tomorrow or after Egix and win the game.
It's not relevant at this point who I'm voting for because my reads are clearly stated and pressure to get claims is irrelevant, but if it matters to you, ok. There it is.

And 1876 you're discarding without even realizing you're disproving yourself and getting sidetracked - going for Garmr means I'm not going for you which means you're wrong about me being *desperate to lynch you today* - and even so, why are you so confident that town would lose the game in that scenario, with the amount of clear power left? And why aren't you even considering you might be dying during that night? It's like you know exactly how the game is going to play out in your head, and town doesn't win, even though from your POV, town!Ausuka would most likely be nightkilled, but in either case, town has extreme clear power.




In post 1906, Exilon wrote:
In post 1903, Exilon wrote:You think you live in a gamestate, with that day 2, where skitter, egix, and me are all scum?
Yes. There was very limited interest in lynching either you or skitter so it's easy to see the advantage of distancing/bussing (you can pull this against anyone who thinks that the two of you are buddies and the risk of a lynch is pretty minimal.) Egix is a little harder to get around, and I'll admit there was a time I thought you and egix were literally never s/s. However, I think the move does actually make some sense.
Egix, even on early d2 when he wasn't under that much suspicion, is unlikely to make it to endgame.
However, if you bus him, and Egix flips red, that basically gives you a free pass to win, or even vice versa, because you can pull the exact card that you just did! So, I do think it makes sense for scum to do.
About Skitter - you just recycled Garmr's theory here and completely disregarded what was said about it later, and failed to incorporate it here.

About Egix - your wording here seems very peculiar - why was Scum!Egix unlikely to make it to endgame? How do *you* know this?
I don't think my theory is exactly the same as garmr's; in particular I never got the impression d2 that skitter was going to be lynched anytime soon; at maximum it was just me and Garmr voting for her. When she started arguing against you, it was only HRG voting for her.
If you posted anything that you think disproves you and skitter as s/s please point me at it; I don't remember, and I even checked just now and don't see anything along those lines that I need to address.

The egix line is super stretchy. Egix doesn't make it to endgame because he's compromise bait. I'm pretty sure that nobody was really townreading that slot, and it seems very likely that at some point he would get lynched. For example, Egix is a strong lynch candidate right now, and I very strongly believe that he would still be so if it weren't for that case.
What on earth are you trying to imply here? Egix is a suicidal goon and that's why he can't make it to endgame?
So you're saying me as scum, early day 2, with several possible wagons to choose from, between sash, bob, you, even skitter, gained precognitive abilities, checked everyone's ISOS for their reads on Egix, knew somehow that no one would townread him, that Day 3/4 EVERYONE but him would be somehow cleared and put him in a prime position for a lynch, tried to get a early start on him, which best case scenario would put scum at a -1 for some town cred on me, (at worst, out me or god forbid, BOTH OF US) didn't give up the read - purposefully - , while then scumreading you and skitter, AND ALSO faked not realizing more people were null-reading him?

This isn't a stretch, this is full on contortionism here

About the bold: that's EXACTLY what I'm asking you lol
You're the one who believes that someone on his scumteam would rather throw him under the bus ASAP for whatever reason, not me
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Post Post #1912 (isolation #149) » Thu May 23, 2019 8:39 am

Post by Exilon »

So if Egix flips scum I succesfully bussed my entire team, and I did all of it Day 2
Now that's an oustanding move
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Post Post #1913 (isolation #150) » Thu May 23, 2019 8:41 am

Post by Exilon »

like, wtf urap2?
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Post Post #1927 (isolation #151) » Thu May 23, 2019 11:42 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 1916, u r a person 2 wrote:in fact, i'd go so far as to say that all associations from now forward that point to svt or tvt should be viewed in this light. We should be expecting scum to try and bus their way to a win
I'm not saying otherwise at all, but this doesn't hold in thise case for sure considering I accused both Egix AND Ausuka day 2 before an hypothetical scum!me even felt a noose around his neck

And also what happened your belief in Ausuka claim?
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Post Post #1934 (isolation #152) » Thu May 23, 2019 11:48 am

Post by Exilon »

I agree with your analysis after a first readthrough.
My vote's already in the right place.

However, why are we not considering mafia roleblocker, or other similar actions?
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Post Post #1940 (isolation #153) » Thu May 23, 2019 12:14 pm

Post by Exilon »

No, I mean, if there's roleblocker we're not getting an Ausuka result
Which is kind of a wrench in town's plans (if I understood correctly), and is "guaranteed" to happen if Ausuka is scum so basically day 4 we'll be having fun trying to decide if we're buying her claim or not, I guess
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Post Post #1941 (isolation #154) » Thu May 23, 2019 12:14 pm

Post by Exilon »

I meant to put happen in "", and not guaranteed
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Post Post #1943 (isolation #155) » Thu May 23, 2019 12:17 pm

Post by Exilon »

I'll walk through the post step by step tomorrow with pen and paper
As I said right now was a first readthrough
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Post Post #1955 (isolation #156) » Thu May 23, 2019 12:27 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 1953, u r a person 2 wrote:if scum!gamr had those posts ready to go, he's going to win. Plain and simple.
At least he was wrong about Sash being scum so there'll be at least that
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Post Post #1957 (isolation #157) » Thu May 23, 2019 12:28 pm

Post by Exilon »

How so, I'm talking about the signature thingy
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Post Post #1995 (isolation #158) » Fri May 24, 2019 11:00 am

Post by Exilon »

Hey bob
What did you see in my most recent iso that made you think i was scum

And also am i still scum with urap2 and skitter?
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Post Post #2003 (isolation #159) » Fri May 24, 2019 11:47 am

Post by Exilon »

oh hai sky!
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Post Post #2005 (isolation #160) » Fri May 24, 2019 11:53 am

Post by Exilon »

That's what I asked and what I'm currently waiting on an answer for

But basically we're at the point were mechanically there's only a few possible scum in the slots, and that's basically it.
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Post Post #2008 (isolation #161) » Fri May 24, 2019 12:01 pm

Post by Exilon »

detective pikachu is IC so auto clear;
Garmr and Bob claimed masons and it was greatly breadcrumbed and Garmr gave us lots of hard-to-fake receipts so it's consensual in the group they're town
Then Ausuka claimed odd-night neapolitan and gave us a clear on your slot for VT relative to day1;
Then skitter claimed even-night detective that checked Ausuka N2, with no result.

The rest are claimed VTs - Egix, me and Urap2.

Assuming a scumteam of size 3, scum's possible pool is extremely small.
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Post Post #2010 (isolation #162) » Fri May 24, 2019 12:05 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 2007, u r a person 2 wrote:
game is auto from pov of town!{me, egix, exilon} but exilon can't seem to figure that out
Why do you think that is?

Honest question before I lose my calm
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Post Post #2013 (isolation #163) » Fri May 24, 2019 12:09 pm

Post by Exilon »

you don't need to, I know what I said

That comments wording implied you didn't, with a tone I didn't really appreciate, and implied something else which isn't helped by the fact I'm bit more sensitive today.
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Post Post #2015 (isolation #164) » Fri May 24, 2019 12:15 pm

Post by Exilon »

I'm not gonna go into semantics.
I already agreed with it, and I'm already voting Egix
the rest was me clarifying some doubts, not refusing your analysis
so for you to say "can't seem to figure it out" just comes across as insulting


Let me get into a different topic here, why did you change your vote to me? I know you don't really care from your pov who gets lynched, but Egi's wagon was ahead of mine, so why the shift?
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Post Post #2019 (isolation #165) » Fri May 24, 2019 12:23 pm

Post by Exilon »

My synopsis came after you said that comment.
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Post Post #2022 (isolation #166) » Fri May 24, 2019 12:25 pm

Post by Exilon »

Also, maybe the difference between our attitudes right now is that you're sure of the setup and don't see any plot twist coming about, whereas I have never had any game of mafia in this forum where I wasn't thrown for a loop near the end of the game when I thought the game was solved, so excuse me for still trying to be engaging with players. That shouldn't change anything from your pov at all
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Post Post #2023 (isolation #167) » Fri May 24, 2019 12:26 pm

Post by Exilon »

In post 2020, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 2005, Exilon wrote:That's what I asked and what I'm currently waiting on an answer for

But basically we're at the point were mechanically there's only a few possible scum in the slots, and that's basically it.
this comment :roll:
Forgive me for trying to not be biased when summarizing the current gamestate
also, that's not wrong at all to say
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Post Post #2027 (isolation #168) » Fri May 24, 2019 12:31 pm

Post by Exilon »

We're clearly on two completely different wavelenghts here and like you said you're already bored, so this conversation is completely pointless and I'm stopping now

I'll do what I said I was gonna do, you do your thing
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Post Post #2030 (isolation #169) » Fri May 24, 2019 12:40 pm

Post by Exilon »

dude, I don't know, I played less than 6 games in this site.

I'm *afraid* it might not be auto but I haven't gone deep into it enough to put the worry to rest by myself. It's late right now, I don't have much time, I'll get to it when I can during the weekend.
And then we can talk about it in the same wavelngth rather than this
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Post Post #2032 (isolation #170) » Fri May 24, 2019 12:42 pm

Post by Exilon »

thank you, I appreciate it
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Post Post #2131 (isolation #171) » Sun May 26, 2019 12:16 am

Post by Exilon »

Quick post before end of day?
I have no modifiers either
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Post Post #2132 (isolation #172) » Sun May 26, 2019 12:17 am

Post by Exilon »

I havent gotten around to doing the whole math urap2 sorry but doesn't seem like it'll be necessary after this
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Post Post #2133 (isolation #173) » Sun May 26, 2019 12:17 am

Post by Exilon »

I'll do it after the flip considering the new information
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Post Post #2134 (isolation #174) » Sun May 26, 2019 12:18 am

Post by Exilon »

and by new information I mean ausuka's flip
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Post Post #2149 (isolation #175) » Wed May 29, 2019 3:41 am

Post by Exilon »

Hey urap2 I did the math

In all worlds skitter was town
We can afford mislynches

I have nothing to add

Can I hammer or what
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Post Post #2150 (isolation #176) » Wed May 29, 2019 3:41 am

Post by Exilon »

Garmr should have done the math too
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Post Post #2158 (isolation #177) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:06 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 2151, Garmr wrote:
In post 2150, Exilon wrote:Garmr should have done the math too
I did do the math I spent the whole night phase talking with bob about it. Bob thought skitter was 100% town I was around the 60-65% mark.

Egix,Skygazer and Ausuka was what hit me.

Can I atleast not rush through the day because Bob, detective pikachu and I are the night kills.
skitter had to be 100% town

In a world where Skygazer is town, she confirms Skitter and one other (who? No idea).
In a world where Skygazer is scum, Skitter has claimed alone and is basically the only town PR in the game.

From your perspective, scum have to be in [skygazer, egix, urap, exilon].
Skygazer's info on the game makes this an auto for *everyone* anyway, as her flip will tell us everything we need to confirm without ever needing to out the PR in case she's town.

We can win this even if Bob+Garmr happen to be scum precisely because of it
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Post Post #2159 (isolation #178) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:07 am

Post by Exilon »

I sitll maintain my original first solve for this game which is Ausuka Sky Egix
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Post Post #2162 (isolation #179) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:14 am

Post by Exilon »

Sky if you're town there's only two possible scumteams to choose from

Taking that into account, what world is more likely for us to be in?
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Post Post #2163 (isolation #180) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:14 am

Post by Exilon »

From your perspective I mean
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Post Post #2165 (isolation #181) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:26 am

Post by Exilon »

if the posssibility isnt possible, then it isn't a possibility and therefore there was nothing to overlook in the first place
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Post Post #2166 (isolation #182) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:28 am

Post by Exilon »

but also, huh
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Post Post #2169 (isolation #183) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:37 am

Post by Exilon »

Once again imma say this

You think I would, as SCUM, Starting day 2, drop only 2 cases on PRECISELY the people I was scum with, and press Ausuka start of day 3?
And *actually* scumread them to filth?

How likely do you think that is?
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Post Post #2174 (isolation #184) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:48 am

Post by Exilon »

I got cases on them *both* when they weren't even being looked at, and even tried to press Egix going forward, like
One I can get and I've seen it done pretty commonly, but drawing attention to the entire scum team on such a stagnant game when I had no other actual scumreads or failsafes doesn't just sound like shooting oneself in the foot, it's full on throwing yourself off the cliff after pushing your other two mates
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Post Post #2175 (isolation #185) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:48 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 2173, Skygazer wrote:i mean

if i were scum and self hammered then town wouldnt rlly be able to talk things through about the last scum

do u think ausuka would defend a partner like that?

you seem to be under the impression that for any one else in the game there's any need to talk as if we're not auto already
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Post Post #2176 (isolation #186) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:49 am

Post by Exilon »

As in, we don't actually need more information aside from your flip to solve the game
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Post Post #2178 (isolation #187) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:51 am

Post by Exilon »

oh look you're not voting
why
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Post Post #2179 (isolation #188) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:51 am

Post by Exilon »

is tmi too much information?
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Post Post #2182 (isolation #189) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:54 am

Post by Exilon »

ok so how is that tmi and how is it indicative that I'm obv scum with Egix
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Post Post #2187 (isolation #190) » Wed May 29, 2019 4:56 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 2184, Skygazer wrote:
In post 2182, Exilon wrote:ok so how is that tmi and how is it indicative that I'm obv scum with Egix
your wording heavily implies you know egix is scum rather than you think egix is scum
That's the same as saying you have a gut feeling
What wording specifically implies that

And also, no shit I think he's very obviously scum, didn't I say I did the math
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Post Post #2193 (isolation #191) » Wed May 29, 2019 5:02 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 2189, Skygazer wrote:like ur not even giving any thought to masons being scum or urap being scum

u just straight up admitted you *knew* ausuka was scum and know egix is scum, town would generally have a bit of paranoia

u scum slipped, game over
lmao
my paranoia is exactly what made me engage with you in the first place and entertain the idea you're town
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Post Post #2194 (isolation #192) » Wed May 29, 2019 5:04 am

Post by Exilon »

In post 2191, Skygazer wrote:
DP/bob?
whichever one of you makes it to 3p lylo needs to stick to the plan

.......
what
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Post Post #2196 (isolation #193) » Wed May 29, 2019 5:17 am

Post by Exilon »

Whatever Sky look

If you're town it means we have
TownPR + 2 scum in [egix,exi,urap]
Town wins forever because neither egix nor I claimed PR / modifier and so therefore from your perspective the only one left is URAP2.
If you're so convinced Bob/Garmr are masons, then there's no need to be imploring for them to stick to the plan, cause they'll have the same information you do now, which is your role, and will never lynch urap2 willingly.
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Post Post #2197 (isolation #194) » Wed May 29, 2019 5:18 am

Post by Exilon »

If urap2 comes here and confirms himself as a PR then I'll be imploring for you to be lynching either me or Egix cause either case proves Bob/Garmr are scum.
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Post Post #2198 (isolation #195) » Wed May 29, 2019 5:19 am

Post by Exilon »

But the thing that is very likely not happening and so therefore Occam's razor dictates you're scum

Either case we win,


game over
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Post Post #2200 (isolation #196) » Wed May 29, 2019 5:25 am

Post by Exilon »

I checked the wiki. IC wasn't activated so no modifier there. Masons have no modifiers.

If me, egix and Urap2 are VTs/Goons
How can you be town, sky?
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Post Post #2202 (isolation #197) » Wed May 29, 2019 5:33 am

Post by Exilon »

But still be willing to lynch you?

Garmr has lied about his role in this game already
You think none of them could figure out a fake modifier to throw out in case stating their modifier would put them at a disadvantage?
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Post Post #2203 (isolation #198) » Wed May 29, 2019 5:36 am

Post by Exilon »

Hell, they could have thrown out "I have bulletproof modifier" and be done with it
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Post Post #2207 (isolation #199) » Wed May 29, 2019 5:40 am

Post by Exilon »

who are you talking to, Bob?

what I said was specifically that the IC wasn't activated, as we knew the slot was town when the game started
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