Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)

[Ausuka]

VOTE: ruirui

[Ausuka]

VOTE: ruirui

This is the kind of rvs post i can see scum making ^^^^

(i'm not explicitly calling her scum for this rn, but noting that it comes from scum more than town imo)

VOTE: skitter

it's literally just a naked vote and my standard entrance. why are you not explicitly calling me scum for it? if you think it comes from scum more than town, and the average player has a 1/4 chance to be scum, that's great odds on page 1. it feels as if you're afraid of entering a confrotantion so early more than anything else.

[Ausuka]

If you think my point is so stupid explain how to me please.

Skitter says my vote comes from scum more often than town. This to me is a scumread, how could it not be? If you think someone's only post so far is more common from scum than from town, you think that person's scum. I would expect her reasoning to be used as part of a push on me. She then goes on to say, in the same post, she's not "explicitly" calling me scum for it. This I think isn't genuine, because I think that if skitter sees my post as coming from scum more often than town, she wouldn't have any hesitation to call me scum for it, right?

it's literally just a naked vote and my standard entrance. why are you not explicitly calling me scum for it? if you think it comes from scum more than town, and the average player has a 1/4 chance to be scum, that's great odds on page 1. it feels as if you're afraid of entering a confrotantion so early more than anything else.



Feels like poor reasoning and a bit forced in order to justify a vote on skitter.
The question here seems unnecessary and loaded (assumes Skitter finds Ausuka scummy, which is incorrect), especially considering that skitter's own bolded words invalidate that same question.

How on earth does the bolded invalidate my question? She's saying that she's not calling me scum in the section that you bolded; I'm asking why she's not calling me scum.

i think that post comes from scum more often than town (which is not at all the same thing as thinking you're scum)

Okay, can you please explain why they're not the same thing? Because I don't see the difference when that's my only post in the game.

[Ausuka]

sorry, please ignore the first paragraph of my exilon quote; that was from skitter and I apparently forgot to crop it out.

[Ausuka]

UNVOTE:

ok I thought about it and I think I understand what skitter is saying now.

@Exilon: I still don't understand what about my push you don't think comes from town here.

[Ausuka]

In other words, this is caught scum. Help me with pressure guys.

I don't have much time tonight, Skitter looks town and this analysis was great. I'll follow...
UNVOTE: Skitter
VOTE: Urap2

Can you explain this further please? Like, what about Inferno's analysis is great? I'm not seeing your pov here.

[Ausuka]

UNVOTE:

ok I thought about it and I think I understand what skitter is saying now.

@Exilon: I still don't understand what about my push you don't think comes from town here.

Well, like I said:

Feels like poor reasoning and a bit forced in order to justify a vote on skitter.
The question here seems unnecessary and loaded (assumes Skitter finds Ausuka scummy, which is incorrect), especially considering that skitter's own bolded words invalidate that same question.

So I thought it was written with intent to vote rather than genuine analysis and didn't give him much of a benefit of the doubt.

From your answers and my own analysis, feels to me like you went in with an assumption that wasn't exactly correct (but legitimizes your push imo), and it seems like you've come to an understanding. As such, I'm not scum reading it anymore.

ok I guess it makes sense as a misunderstanding.

[Ausuka]

Can you explain this further please? Like, what about Inferno's analysis is great? I'm not seeing your pov here.

The game started hard and fast. My vote on Skitter was pure RVS but I sensed town in her, so I wanted to unvote and settle elsewhere.
Of all the posts I found that far, this was the post that was telling me the most. I was feeling what was being said real good: the yikes 40 , the convenient 76, the free shade on 42... since we are early I decided not to be inactive and sheep a bit. I know taking someone else's reasoning is not the best move, but it's a start. People tell me I'm inactive Day 1 so I try to get away from that image now.

Ok but like let's take a look at some of these posts in context.

Town AGAIN? Really? Sigh...

VOTE: Ausuka

No naked votes allowed reeeeeeeee

yikes

VOTE: egix

The reasoning Inferno gave for scumreading 40 was:

40 almost feels more naked than Ausuka. Like it’s trying to look clothed when it is.

I can only interpret this as saying that Urap made a naked vote and was trying to make it look non-naked when it wasn't. But, "yikes" is just an indicator that urap thought Egix's post is bad, right? How does this mean that urap is trying to look non-naked? All this is is urap saying early on that he doesn't get good feelings from Egix. I believe that it only makes sense to think this if you're looking through urap's posts for things to scumread. I think it's possible that Inferno, as town, decided urap was scum and looked through his ISO to build a case on him. I can't understand why you, as a nonbiased observer, would think this, though.

As for 42:

VOTE: Exilon
I’m off-put by the tone here. Seems weird.
Skitter feels pushy
Sash feels reachy
Egix is NAI I think

egix partner

Inferno's response to this is that "Me saying that I think Egix’s vote is NAI, especially when it’s clearly an RVS post, may be AI for me, but it certainly does not tie me to Egix on my own." But that's just like, why not? You went out of your way to mention Egix just to call him NAI, that could definitely be seen as a s/s interaction early right? The entire argument just seems blatantly flawed and I think from an unbiased POV it's not one you're likely to sheep.

I don't really like his bob vote either so.

VOTE: Sashaddin

[Ausuka]

Gamr I’m conflicted about. He comes off very tonally odd and very opportunistic rn.


Gamr I’m conflicted about. He comes off very tonally odd and very opportunistic rn.

opportunistic? how?

[Ausuka]

I think that Sasha is scum, but I think it would be a mistake to lynch Inferno next. I kind of feel like Sasha has been trying to buddy Inferno, and if they were partners and Inferno was committed to not bussing he would vote Ruirui. What he's done instead makes himself look bad on a Sasha scumflip and doesn't really help save him, imo.

[Ausuka]

Just going to talk about this VC for a moment:

VC 1.04

Sashaddin (5):

u r a person 2 159, Ausuka 162, Lil Uzi Vert 173, bob3141 180, Garmr 181

RuiRui (4):

ChannelDelibird 174, skitter30 201, Egix96 233, Exilon 234

u r a person 2 (1):

Inferno390 79

Exilon (1):

cbynumber 24

bob3141 (1):

Sashaddin 151

Not Voting:

RuiRui

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-05-03 20:00:00)

As long as Sasha is scum here (which I believe he is) we should be looking at scum on the RuiRui wagon. If he's town that suggests a high concentration of scum on the Sasha wagon. Luv is an IC here of course and therefore cannot be scum so the pool of votes we'd be looking at is {u r a person 2, ausuka, bob, garmr}. Knowing that I'm town I personally can condense that to {ur2, bob, garmr}

Even so I believe Sasha is scum here and therefore would rather spend time looking at the wagon on ruirui instead. Egix and Exilon are the most suspicious here because they jumped on towards the end of the wagon, making it more likely that the reason for their choice was to defend Sasha. Probably cdb is town because he feels genuine here and although I know that skitter is dangerous as scum she hasn't triggered any red flags yet other than the early game thing which I now think was just a misunderstanding.

Either way, the reasoning for my beliefs based on the wagons, lies in how the Sasha wagon has stalled. Realistically if Sasha is town scum are going to want to jump on that because there's been high willingness shown to lynch him, more so than anything else.

If Sasha is scum, I'd actually also expect scum to bus Sasha here since the wagon gained a lot of momentum and I think most scumteams wouldn't want to get caught out on defending their scumbuddy from a lynch d1.

However obviously neither of these things has happened as Sasha wagon has stalled and no new votes are coming through. If Sasha is town this suggests that scum are already on the wagon; the reason scum can't jump on Sasha and push him further is because they're already there. This happened in the last Mini Normal I played actually; all three scum jumped on a budding wagon at the beginning and it stalled, so I don't want to discount the Sasha!town possibility. I don't think all 3 scum would necessarily need to be on the Sasha wagon for this purpose, though; it's possible also that only 2 are on the wagon, and the other one is just really scared by the prospect of working with their scumbuddies and all being on the d1 mislynch, and there's also a scum in the vanity voters or voting Ruirui if she's town.

Occam's razor though is that Sasha is just scum here and the reason that his wagon has stalled in the way that it has is that his scumbuddies are really anti-bus and are hoping to get another wagon through, namely RuiRui. I actually find it really hard to imagine a scumteam with both Sasha and a vanity voter; you're showing a hard aversion to bussing, and yet you're not going to push the counterwagon, which has a high chance of just letting the lynch happen and making you look much worse than you would if you'd have voted Sasha? So I'd imagine that if Sasha is scum all his partners would probs be in {cdb, skitter, exilon, egix} and we have a pretty high chance of winning the game from here if we follow that.

[Ausuka]

Have you considered that it stalled because the deadline for the day isn't over and some of us would like to have more information? Seems like you're relying on some incorrect assumptions here.

In fact, the only reason I'm not voting Sash is because the day isn't over and if I had voted for Sash I would have been hammering him (at least when I looked at the votecount and considered it). And I won't change it now because pressure = information and I like that.
However and for now let it be known that I find Sash to scummier than RuiRui and would rather lynch Sash than RuiRui.

We have 5 days left; I actually think this would be a perfect time to run up Sashaddin and give intent, so if he's actually town and has a claim that justifies leaving him alive, we have enough time to find a good alternative instead of compromise lynching. I don't think running this down to deadline will be helpful and could just cause a scramble. Unless I'm mistaken in counting which I'm 99% sure I'm not, Sashaddin has been at 5 votes, then dropped to 4, leaving him at L-3; that's plenty of room to vote if you want to. I don't think the Ruirui wagon is providing us that much information right now.

So where do I fall in all of that Ausuka?

If Sasha is scum you're almost definitely town. If he's town you're null-townish. Based on play I feel that you're probably not scum regardless.

ur post just above feels kinda exactly like what a partner would say

Yeah this probably makes Exilon the most suspicious of the Ruirui wagon; it feels like upon being associated to Sasha his reaction was that he had to disprove what I was saying.

[Ausuka]

Can you explain this further please? Like, what about Inferno's analysis is great? I'm not seeing your pov here.

The game started hard and fast. My vote on Skitter was pure RVS but I sensed town in her, so I wanted to unvote and settle elsewhere.
Of all the posts I found that far, this was the post that was telling me the most. I was feeling what was being said real good: the yikes 40 , the convenient 76, the free shade on 42... since we are early I decided not to be inactive and sheep a bit. I know taking someone else's reasoning is not the best move, but it's a start. People tell me I'm inactive Day 1 so I try to get away from that image now.

Ok but like let's take a look at some of these posts in context.

Town AGAIN? Really? Sigh...

VOTE: Ausuka

No naked votes allowed reeeeeeeee

yikes

VOTE: egix

The reasoning Inferno gave for scumreading 40 was:

40 almost feels more naked than Ausuka. Like it’s trying to look clothed when it is.

I can only interpret this as saying that Urap made a naked vote and was trying to make it look non-naked when it wasn't. But, "yikes" is just an indicator that urap thought Egix's post is bad, right? How does this mean that urap is trying to look non-naked? All this is is urap saying early on that he doesn't get good feelings from Egix. I believe that it only makes sense to think this if you're looking through urap's posts for things to scumread. I think it's possible that Inferno, as town, decided urap was scum and looked through his ISO to build a case on him. I can't understand why you, as a nonbiased observer, would think this, though.

As for 42:

VOTE: Exilon
I’m off-put by the tone here. Seems weird.
Skitter feels pushy
Sash feels reachy
Egix is NAI I think

egix partner

Inferno's response to this is that "Me saying that I think Egix’s vote is NAI, especially when it’s clearly an RVS post, may be AI for me, but it certainly does not tie me to Egix on my own." But that's just like, why not? You went out of your way to mention Egix just to call him NAI, that could definitely be seen as a s/s interaction early right? The entire argument just seems blatantly flawed and I think from an unbiased POV it's not one you're likely to sheep.

I don't really like his bob vote either so.

VOTE: Sashaddin

^ this was my reasoning.

For the last part:

72 comes from town I think.

Like it actually looks scummy af

but

I think it actually reads townie from some new players.

Very much looks like an attempt to pretend to defend soemone

but

at the same time keep using the"

but .....

"

As well as trying to emphasize possible scummy actions

but

raising this in a pretend defense. So If i got lynched and untimatly revealed as town you could simply say you dint think i was scum and could hold no blame

____

I think you are trying hard on this one, throwing shade on URAP2. Your argument made no sense too, you are using the very same word you are suspicious of.

VOTE: Bob3141

I really dislike the usage of the word shade here. Like, bob is outright pushing urap2 here; that isn't scummy and it feels like Sasha is just trying to find any reason to scumread urap. Also the reasoning makes like no sense to me but that's probably less AI.

Also I feel like his play has been to try and buddy Inferno? Like, first he calls Inferno's massive case great, then joins him on Urap, then Garmr forms his Inferno push and Sasha comes to his defense, recycling the same "opportunistic" line Inferno used, in 260.

pedit: use post tags; like [.post]302[./post] to link back to your post, but without the dots inside.

[Ausuka]

Ausuka, what do you think of the 1v1 between me and Gamr?

tbh I haven't really been keeping track of it. both of you have good towny tone (i don't see what you're getting at when you say his tone is bad) and like the initial reason for you to scumread him was opportunism and i really don't feel like he was doing that; like, voting the scummiest wagon is a perfectly sensible thing to do and i've been on the receiving end of similar accusations as town. you went on to say that it was scummy that he didn't elaborate until a wagon happened; I think this doesn't make sense because, if he's currently pushing someone else, there's no reason to elaborate too much on the sashaddin scumread, and it makes sense that when he's on the wagon and trying to lynch Sasha, he gives more reasons. this was more or less the part where i stopped reading the discussion. is there a specific part you want me to look at?

[Ausuka]

oh simpler answer: i think you're both town rn

[Ausuka]

Inferno do you think scum urap is more likely than town urap to disagree with you about how he should format his readslists?

[Ausuka]

I think that Sasha is scum, but I think it would be a mistake to lynch Inferno next. I kind of feel like Sasha has been trying to buddy Inferno, and if they were partners and Inferno was committed to not bussing he would vote Ruirui. What he's done instead makes himself look bad on a Sasha scumflip and doesn't really help save him, imo.

How has Sasha been trying to buddy Inferno? They have little to no interactions with each other and he seemed to make it very clear that he didn’t want to get involved in the spat with Exil.

Also I feel like his play has been to try and buddy Inferno? Like, first he calls Inferno's massive case great, then joins him on Urap, then Garmr forms his Inferno push and Sasha comes to his defense, recycling the same "opportunistic" line Inferno used, in 260.

this is why i think this; i don't think it's a "gross misrepresentation" at all.

@sasha: i don't think you're necessarily playing badly? if you want to get better at playing, something you could is reading old games, and looking at what scum do. you can learn how scum behave and when you're scum you can try and avoid those kinds of behaviours. at least that's what i do.

i can't think of anyone i'd like to lynch more than sasha. i'd like their flip here and i don't particularly feel like urap is scum (although i guess i don't exactly have a reason to think this, they just feel genuine to me) and inferno seems tunnely-town like he is usually.

[Ausuka]

I think that Sasha is scum, but I think it would be a mistake to lynch Inferno next. I kind of feel like Sasha has been trying to buddy Inferno, and if they were partners and Inferno was committed to not bussing he would vote Ruirui. What he's done instead makes himself look bad on a Sasha scumflip and doesn't really help save him, imo.

How has Sasha been trying to buddy Inferno? They have little to no interactions with each other and he seemed to make it very clear that he didn’t want to get involved in the spat with Exil.

Also I feel like his play has been to try and buddy Inferno? Like, first he calls Inferno's massive case great, then joins him on Urap, then Garmr forms his Inferno push and Sasha comes to his defense, recycling the same "opportunistic" line Inferno used, in 260.

this is why i think this; i don't think it's a "gross misrepresentation" at all.

@sasha: i don't think you're necessarily playing badly? if you want to get better at playing, something you could is reading old games, and looking at what scum do. you can learn how scum behave and when you're scum you can try and avoid those kinds of behaviours. at least that's what i do.

i can't think of anyone i'd like to lynch more than sasha. i'd like their flip here and i don't particularly feel like urap is scum (although i guess i don't exactly have a reason to think this, they just feel genuine to me) and inferno seems tunnely-town like he is usually.

I missed this on my catch-up. What I get for skimming

I don’t see how agreeing with ones analysis in the most non-enthusiastic way is buddying. I also don’t see the second point either and I don’t see why he attempts to buddy Inferno there as scum. Inferno wasn’t voting for him at the time and didn’t really have the intention too either.

Don’t mean to be hung up on this but I’m just not following how you reached that he was buddying. It has been one of the reasons why I’ve been reconsidering Sasha.

i don't see how it's in the most non-enthusiastic way or what you're getting at here at all really? inferno's case there wasn't exactly the best and i wouldn't expect town to sheep it; he later also sheeps inferno's points on garmr, and agrees with inferno's biggest tunnel. none of these things are conclusive evidence alone, but added together, i think it's likely sasha made a concerted effort to buddy inferno here.

as for why you would do that - it's good to have someone on your side as scum, especially someone as loud and active as inferno is.

[Ausuka]

Not so sure that inferno is town now.

can you elaborate on why this is? like he still seems really townie to me.

sorry that i'm not contributing that much; i think sasha is red here but i'm not confident enough on that right now to build reads on the basis of him flipping red, and honestly my reads are very different based on what sasha flips. i think we're still lynching sasha today and once we do i'll form better reads on the other players; i realize we need highrisk to catch up first though.

[Ausuka]

i don't understand the skitter push. what about her posting is empty?

[Ausuka]

Not so sure that inferno is town now.

can you elaborate on why this is? like he still seems really townie to me.

This post in particular I didn't like:

God I don't want a last minute lynch on a spontaneous wagon.

God I don't want a last minute lynch on a spontaneous wagon.

why not tho

1 sash is going to flip scum.
2.less information than wagons that have been going all day.

Unless you wanna lynch inferno?

Given that the only “spontaneous wagon” going on is UR2, this reads suspiciously like scum worried that his partner is going to get lynched out of nowhere because the wagon he’s been pushing falls apart. Plus saying I should be lynched, especially when widely townread indicates to me that he’s scum that wants to get rid of me.

I think it's scummy for him to tie Garmr and urap together like that because to me it seems like a gross misrepresentation of the situation. Also "saying I should be lynched, especially when widely townread indicates to me that he’s scum that wants to get rid of me" looks OMGUS-y imo.

Ok, I don't agree that inferno wouldn't post stuff like that as town but at least I get where you're coming from now.

[Ausuka]

i don't think this is a wagon on scum
the gamestate is too ~complacent~

it feels like scum are just content to let the clock wind-down and let people vote for their favorite compromise wagon (ie sash, as multiple people have said) and they don't have a problem with that so they're just letting it happen and taking it easy

i don't think i'll vote there today

what do you mean? there's been plenty of counterwagons propped up throughout the day: ruirui, u r a person 2, then back to ruirui. the gamestate doesn't feel like this at all.

Like I mean I get thinking skitter is scum with sasha - I've had that thought too given she's tried to dodge his lynch and propping up the ruirui -> urap -> ruirui counterwagons and this really doesn't feel like a bus gamestate. But I don't think she's really ever scum without sasha given that she's defended him a lot more than I think would be necessary (i get scum giving some defense but it seems like she's really trying to save him) and if Sasha is town scum are/were mostly already on the wagon i'd think considering it reached a maximum mass and then faltered significantly from that point. I think sasha is strictly the superior lynch here.

[Ausuka]

Why should Sashaddin make it to d2 then?

[Ausuka]

i don't townread this, i like cdb's posting, sasha wagon has 0 momentum, and the last thing I want is to not lynch.

VOTE: ruirui

if people want sasha wagon back i'll vote there obviously.

pedit: also that might be a townpost idk

Sasha do you like townread ruirui or just don't sr her?

[Ausuka]

I don't know if I' explaining well enough here.
Garmr surviving the night makes me think he has a lot of % of flipping red, because If he is town I don't think CDB was a better kill over Garmr.

sasha are you scum after all

[Ausuka]

The logic is very flawed as well. Why would you think garmr not being nk woudl make him mafia?

That's what I tried to explain 3 times...

If I were mafia I'd kill town!Garmr first.
Scum!Garmr survives because he can't be killed he's mafia.

LUV has a good point too though. But my first thought was about Garmr being suspect for susrviving the night.

Ok but what makes you think scum's view of the game is the same as yours is? You'd kill garmr but that seems very based on your own perception of him as a player and I can't understand why you're saying that everyone else would do the same thing.

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Sashaddin

Ok so I'm much more comfortable here than on Garmr and there's no suspicious behaviour that I think I should try and build a new wagon on. I don't fully understand where scumreads on Garmr are coming from: the wagon so far is Sashaddin's vote which is really :v and Inferno's vote which is based on this:

God I don't want a last minute lynch on a spontaneous wagon.

God I don't want a last minute lynch on a spontaneous wagon.

why not tho

1 sash is going to flip scum.
2.less information than wagons that have been going all day.

Unless you wanna lynch inferno?

Given that the only “spontaneous wagon” going on is UR2, this reads suspiciously like scum worried that his partner is going to get lynched out of nowhere because the wagon he’s been pushing falls apart. Plus saying I should be lynched, especially when widely townread indicates to me that he’s scum that wants to get rid of me.

I think this is really shaky reasoning too: sure he says it's scum that's worried his partner gets lynched but... nothing seems to indicate that's actually the case. It's a possibility but nothing makes it more likely than Garmr just being town who doesn't want urap (a non-scumread) to be lynched over Sasha (a scumread.) Additionally if Garmr really wanted rid of Inferno he'd probably do it over the Night phase rather than try to lynch one of the hardest players in the list to lynch.

Otoh Sasha seems quite likely to flip scum for reasons I stated yesterday+the way he's using the kill to push Garmr here feels really wrong. I probably should've kept voting him yesterday lol, although chances are we would've lynched ruirui anyhow.

[Ausuka]

God I don't want a last minute lynch on a spontaneous wagon.

God I don't want a last minute lynch on a spontaneous wagon.

why not tho

1 sash is going to flip scum.
2.less information than wagons that have been going all day.

Unless you wanna lynch inferno?

Given that the only “spontaneous wagon” going on is UR2, this reads suspiciously like scum worried that his partner is going to get lynched out of nowhere because the wagon he’s been pushing falls apart. Plus saying I should be lynched, especially when widely townread indicates to me that he’s scum that wants to get rid of me.

I think this is really shaky reasoning too: sure he says it's scum that's worried his partner gets lynched but... nothing seems to indicate that's actually the case. It's a possibility but nothing makes it more likely than Garmr just being town who doesn't want urap (a non-scumread) to be lynched over Sasha (a scumread.) Additionally if Garmr really wanted rid of Inferno he'd probably do it over the Night phase rather than try to lynch one of the hardest players in the list to lynch.

That's what I was trying to tell you before.

I think it's wrong; I don't see how it's scummy.

[Ausuka]

The logic is very flawed as well. Why would you think garmr not being nk woudl make him mafia?

That's what I tried to explain 3 times...

If I were mafia I'd kill town!Garmr first.
Scum!Garmr survives because he can't be killed he's mafia.

LUV has a good point too though. But my first thought was about Garmr being suspect for susrviving the night.

Ok but what makes you think scum's view of the game is the same as yours is? You'd kill garmr but that seems very based on your own perception of him as a player and I can't understand why

you're saying that

everyone else

would do the same thing.

I never once stated anything about

everyone else

, except LUV's opinion which is

opposite

of me, so not helping my point at all...

I'm just stating my hypothesis, I don't expect everyone (or anyone in fact) to agree with me. I'm writing what's going on in my head when I think about this....

I don't understand what relevance your response has to what I said? What I'm saying is that you're assuming the other players, as scum, would share your opinion that Garmr is a strong player, an opinion gathered from past games only you played with him. I feel like you're just picking out two words I used and responding to them specifically without context.

[Ausuka]

Tell who else atm you think is scum or think may be scum

My list is empty! Except maybe Garmr., but not sure.. I am not good at scumreading early, I get better in the later days when more flips are done.

if you were town leaning on garmr d1 why did you say this only a few pages prehammer?

[Ausuka]

Tell who else atm you think is scum or think may be scum

My list is empty! Except maybe Garmr., but not sure.. I am not good at scumreading early, I get better in the later days when more flips are done.

if you were town leaning on garmr d1 why did you say this only a few pages prehammer?

Because I was only 100% sure at the start of the game he was red, the % decreased as the time passed. I'm somewhere around 50% with him right now, I see him as scum sometimes and as town some other. Plus, my nightkill theory added scum points but now I think it's moot.
Does that answer the question or did I miss the point?

It kind of answers the question but if you're like 50% sure Garmr is scum I'm not sure why you said that you thought he might be town but aren't fully convinced yet.

[Ausuka]

Looks like high risk gambler is sash partner

Explain this for me please. Why do you think HRG is Sash's scum partner and why do you have such high confidence about it?

[Ausuka]

hey ausuka what's ur read on exilon?

(other people are welcome to answer this too)

i think exilon is town. 717 and 1043 feel genuine to me like town genuinely trying to conduct some sort of investigation. the latter post does seem biased against egix but it seems more like town trying to make a case than scum doing the same: I think scum would be more likely to point suspicion to a few suspicious posts, rather than going through his entire ISO and searching for anything they can that would indicate egix!scum. that seems more like town trying to build a case to me.

sorry for not posting enough; i'm having trouble with this game because the only players i think are suspicious are sasha and bob and i don't even think they're scum together but that's not really an excuse and i'll try to get it together.

[Ausuka]

i can track his thought process from post to post and his posts holistically make sense as a whole
like i feel like i can understand how he's approaching the game

I feel like I can understand it too but I don't understand how that makes him town? Like, I think scum could easily decide to approach the game from an angle of "let's lynch sasha, and while we're at it i can tie people (hrg) to him to make it look less like i'm tunneling and more like i'm gamesolving."

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Sashaddin

Ok so I'm much more comfortable here than on Garmr and there's no suspicious behaviour that I think I should try and build a new wagon on. I don't fully understand where scumreads on Garmr are coming from: the wagon so far is Sashaddin's vote which is really :v and Inferno's vote which is based on this:

God I don't want a last minute lynch on a spontaneous wagon.

God I don't want a last minute lynch on a spontaneous wagon.

why not tho

1 sash is going to flip scum.
2.less information than wagons that have been going all day.

Unless you wanna lynch inferno?

Given that the only “spontaneous wagon” going on is UR2, this reads suspiciously like scum worried that his partner is going to get lynched out of nowhere because the wagon he’s been pushing falls apart. Plus saying I should be lynched, especially when widely townread indicates to me that he’s scum that wants to get rid of me.

I think this is really shaky reasoning too: sure he says it's scum that's worried his partner gets lynched but... nothing seems to indicate that's actually the case. It's a possibility but nothing makes it more likely than Garmr just being town who doesn't want urap (a non-scumread) to be lynched over Sasha (a scumread.) Additionally if Garmr really wanted rid of Inferno he'd probably do it over the Night phase rather than try to lynch one of the hardest players in the list to lynch.

Otoh Sasha seems quite likely to flip scum for reasons I stated yesterday+the way he's using the kill to push Garmr here feels really wrong. I probably should've kept voting him yesterday lol, although chances are we would've lynched ruirui anyhow.

Not really understanding why you’re voting Sash here. Like at all.

what's there not to understand? i found the way he pushed garmr with the NK out of the gate suspect. i had reasons for suspecting him as outlined as 162 as well: that was earlygame but earlygame can be some of the most AI stuff in the game (as marathons can demostrate) and nothing has made that read go away.

[Ausuka]

Now im we assume atleast 2 are on it. ( were assuming one could be off for saftey )

this is a very dangerous starting assumption to make for no particular reason.

Now sach vote first stalled at 4 votes. Now if it as ausuka himself points out it could be stalled as scom scum are alreadon it

If that was the case then the only possible person at that point was Ausuka.

What? If I'm the only scum on the wagon, that's not a explanation for why scum wouldn't want to jump on the wagon. I've never seen scum be hesitant to jump on a wagon because one scumbuddy was already on it - and to be honest why would they be? Two, maybe I could see it, but not one.

[Ausuka]

Ausuka post even looked like pre excuse for him jumping off. Yet not preventing him jumping it on a later date.

There even looks like posts were he is trying to fabricate fall guys for that lynch if sash turns out town. And if sash is his scum buddy it could give him an excuse to jump off. Ironicly him being that scum he is talking out

So what you're saying is, 800 is an excuse for jumping off, but not preventing me from jumping on Sahsa at a later date. I'm trying to fabricate a 'fall guy' for the lynch if Sasha is town. And if Sasha is my scumbuddy I'm looking for some sort of excuse to jump off? I'm finding this incredibly hard to follow.

You can call it an excuse if you want but I'm just giving my reasoning for changing votes in that post. I could have stuck to voting Sasha but we were running out of time, and that would lead to a no lynch.

The 'fall guy' comment is presumably talking about 292. I think you have to really be trying to see my posts this way, to be saying that. While I do establish a potential scumpool for if Sasha flips town, as well as if he flips scum, that's a perfectly sensible thing to do as town; I should be prepared for any flip. There's nothing that makes this scum setting up 'fall guys' rather than town just scumhunting. Besides, if I was scum voting town!Sasha and trying to survive after his mislynch why would I draw attention to the Sasha wagon, and say there should be multiple scum in there, when I myself am in that area? That's just asking for trouble. I would rather be directing attention to other players as scum.

I don't understand what you're talking about with looking for an excuse to jump off: this is my most consistent game in a long time, for me to be voting Sashaddin for practically all of d1, and until deadline where I felt I had to compromise or risk a nolynch over a lynch of a fairly scummy player, I don't make any comments that indicate I'd like to vote anyone else. I even checked to make sure I'm right, and I am.

I don't see how this is genuine analysis. It feels like you just picked a player to push and decided to case them, and you haven't mentioned any sort of gut ping from me or anything that would justify looking at my posts in such a biased way.

(also i'm a she)

pedit: No, I don't see why I should wait for you to finish all your VCA posting to talk about how I read into it - there's no particular reason to do that. You may say it's just initial fact finding or whatever but that doesn't mean that I have to ignore it and can't read into it. You're still making arbitrary assumptions to back your reads and you're stretching to justify a scumread on me based on these assumptions, but nobody is allowed to criticize it because you haven't finished your analysis? really?

[Ausuka]

So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?

I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town (876)
URAP2: Garmr is town (343, 418), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum (286)
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town (110) and CDB town (285)
Ausuka: CDB is town (212, 800)
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him...

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this.

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?

So are you saying you kill CBH because allot of people though he was town?

I think this is a stretchy reason to push sasha also and looks forced. Sasha looks back and says that people townread CDB more than Garmr, and for whatever reason bob decides to take it as Sasha killing CDB because of that reason? This doesn't seem like a genuine interpretation of events.

VOTE: bob

I think I like this lynch more than Sashaddin now.

[Ausuka]

So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?

I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town (876)
URAP2: Garmr is town (343, 418), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum (286)
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town (110) and CDB town (285)
Ausuka: CDB is town (212, 800)
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him...

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this.

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?

So are you saying you kill CBH because allot of people though he was town?

I think this is a stretchy reason to push sasha also and looks forced. Sasha looks back and says that people townread CDB more than Garmr, and for whatever reason bob decides to take it as Sasha killing CDB because of that reason? This doesn't seem like a genuine interpretation of events.

VOTE: bob

I think I like this lynch more than Sashaddin now.

I see you like takign things out of context. To take an isolated part of a line of questioning and try and give it a spin

Changing me making a point that maybe those that killed CDB was a player or group of players that were claiming town reads on him. And sash actual responded well to the questioning in my book. Hence why Ive been looking at his bandwagon again. He made no slips with how he responded. The question was deliberately phrased. Rather then

Me sayign so you think CBD was killed because people were town reading him. the "so you" was in there to see if there was a slip with how he responded

If I don't think something is scummy, then I don't see what the point is in responding to it. I don't see how anything I said was taken out of context.

You're saying it was just a reaction test to Sasha? I don't believe that. You accused him of a freudian slip, pushed him over the course of several posts, and even

tied High Risk to Sasha

because you apparently thought your reasoning was so good that scum would have to scumread you afterwards? Nothing indicates that this was a reaction test, and you never said it was one before now. Why did you push here specifically for 'slips'? What made you think that you could get a scumslip out of this line of questioning?

[Ausuka]

Ausuka post even looked like pre excuse for him jumping off. Yet not preventing him jumping it on a later date.

There even looks like posts were he is trying to fabricate fall guys for that lynch if sash turns out town. And if sash is his scum buddy it could give him an excuse to jump off. Ironicly him being that scum he is talking out

So what you're saying is, 800 is an excuse for jumping off, but not preventing me from jumping on Sahsa at a later date. I'm trying to fabricate a 'fall guy' for the lynch if Sasha is town. And if Sasha is my scumbuddy I'm looking for some sort of excuse to jump off? I'm finding this incredibly hard to follow.

You can call it an excuse if you want but I'm just giving my reasoning for changing votes in that post. I could have stuck to voting Sasha but we were running out of time, and that would lead to a no lynch.

The 'fall guy' comment is presumably talking about 292. I think you have to really be trying to see my posts this way, to be saying that. While I do establish a potential scumpool for if Sasha flips town, as well as if he flips scum, that's a perfectly sensible thing to do as town; I should be prepared for any flip. There's nothing that makes this scum setting up 'fall guys' rather than town just scumhunting. Besides, if I was scum voting town!Sasha and trying to survive after his mislynch why would I draw attention to the Sasha wagon, and say there should be multiple scum in there, when I myself am in that area? That's just asking for trouble. I would rather be directing attention to other players as scum.

I don't understand what you're talking about with looking for an excuse to jump off: this is my most consistent game in a long time, for me to be voting Sashaddin for practically all of d1, and until deadline where I felt I had to compromise or risk a nolynch over a lynch of a fairly scummy player, I don't make any comments that indicate I'd like to vote anyone else. I even checked to make sure I'm right, and I am.

I don't see how this is genuine analysis. It feels like you just picked a player to push and decided to case them, and you haven't mentioned any sort of gut ping from me or anything that would justify looking at my posts in such a biased way.

(also i'm a she)

pedit: No, I don't see why I should wait for you to finish all your VCA posting to talk about how I read into it - there's no particular reason to do that. You may say it's just initial fact finding or whatever but that doesn't mean that I have to ignore it and can't read into it. You're still making arbitrary assumptions to back your reads and you're stretching to justify a scumread on me based on these assumptions, but nobody is allowed to criticize it because you haven't finished your analysis? really?

To be quite frank the hole thing looks like gambit.

You lynch rui but he turns out to be town.

You then help set a narative well mayve sash was after all

And then day 3 were down 2 townies and you simply say why i gave good reasons. It just looks like cunning play from you

sorry about the he.

Lynching Ruirui is not something I could have planned for as scum - I never tried to get her lynched at all. There is no way for me to predict events turning out the way that they did. Regardless of my alignment, it's clear that the RuiRui vote would be because of the deadline, because if I actually wanted to compromise there I would've done it earlier.

And like, you're saying all this is part of my scum strategy, and I guess that's like a possibility? But nothing actually indicates that that's the case. You could form that sort of narrative about anyone in this game. There's no reason why it's actually likely I'm scum doing this, rather than town who scumreads Sasha but decided to vote Ruirui to avoid a nolynch at the end of the day. So I still don't get why you, as town, think I'm scum here.

[Ausuka]

Looks at the bob votes then looks at the rui wagon yesterday.

I'm the only bob vote.

What's the similarity? The person isn't Sashaddin?

[Ausuka]

@Bob: Why did Sasha respond well? Was it just that he didn't scumslip?

[Ausuka]

Could see anything off with his post ( no sort perceptive mistakes ) aswell as his reasoning for why he though CDB was NKed was consistant. Even if it could be applied to him and a few others. But since most players had publicly started taht they were town reading CBD (day one), it woudlnt realy have narrowed it down much.

So it was just that nothing was scummy about those particular posts?

[Ausuka]

ooooh it is ausuka scum, huh

VOTE: ausuka

I dunno how i missed the over-explaining

but this would also make a shit ton of sense for how I'm interpreting this gamestate rn

what do you mean by overexplaining?

Spoiler:

Looking over the entire thread, Alchemist has mostly had short comments and questions here and there so I don’t feel a real solid towniness from him. The fact that he agreed with umlauts conclusions raises him up a few townie points for me because umlaut is a TR in my mind.

Why is this worthy of a townread?

This post in particular pings me the wrong way...it almost feels like she’s trying to distance herself from RCE.

What part of this makes you think I'm distancing myself from RCE? I'm expressing a townread from him.

And if she didn’t really know who else to vote for, why put a vote on Siv? Simply because they have not responded?

"This specifically just feels fake. Sure, what he mentions is certainly a possibility, but I don't see any evidence that this actually happened rather than Hitalt legitimately just forgetting about S_S's vote. The last sentence just feels slimy tbh.

He also says he's voting Hitalt because there's a number of red flags but for whatever reason doesn't specify what those red flags are."
You quoted this post; what happened? Do you think it's not reasoning for my Siv vote?

Ausuka seems to me like someone playing scum really well

Can you provide evidence for this. What exactly in my play makes me "scum playing really well" rather than town? You mentioned me distancing myself from RCE, sure, although I don't see how that happened at all; is there anything else at all or is this it?

Honestly, the post from hitalt makes a lot of sense to me reading back over the thread. When I first read hitalt’s posts as he was writing them, they came across as scummy but I believe him when he said that he didn’t see SS’s self vote and his posts generally seem towny

I selfvoted because i could, because it sparks discussion, and because, aside from conspicuously not voting at all, its my mo

Fine enough.

VOTE: ausuka - time to activate.

What about 59 makes Hitalt town? It seems very NAI to me. Why did you even scumread them in the first place?

This post from RCE really rubs me the wrong way...a lot of his posts don’t have much content and again, he goes from voting me to voting Siv, whom I feel is the other easy mark.....not feeling crazy town vibes from RCE

If he's done scumhunting (which he has) does it matter so much if a few of his posts don't have much content? I don't really understand.

I understand why Siv made this vote- he himself had said before that hitalt was pinging him with red flags, but reading over it again, it seems like he might be buddying up to me because hitalt’s posts aren’t particularly scummy when you look at the entire thread...

You say you understand why Siv made this vote but you also seem to be saying you don't understand why Siv made this vote. I don't really understand this at all.

The other thing that bothers me about Siv is that he’s doing “well enough” and by that I mean, trying to seem just towny enough to get by. Kind of a lesser version of what ausuka is doing

Can you elaborate on how I'm just trying to seem towny enough to get by?

Why do you think voting Siv is an "easy mark" -> an easy ML but also think he's scum?

Rn I think Baezu is scum because:
1) I think her early game was kinda trying to blend in more than anything without much desire to scumhunt.

S_S and Fuscosco are obviously not scum together. Likewise S_S and HitAlt.

Why'd you put a vote down before you had an answer to your question?

Weird question. Why wait? When should someone put a vote down?

I found that weird also...It’s RVS why does he need to wait to cast his vote for you?

UNVOTE: umlaut

Liking his posts

I’m happy considering SS, ausuka and especially umlaut towny for now

In other news, methinks hitalt is seeming pretty scummy

She echoes Umlaut's question, unvotes him and gives pretty plain reads on the rest of the players. Like there isn't much scumhunting intent behind these posts and they look more like "I'm trying to post stuff that looks normal" than "I'm trying to find and lynch scum."

2) 146 and 156 seem weird to me. Like she just kind of votes FL and then unvotes? I feel like she's just trying to hop on the wagon and then unvotes once she realizes it's a serious thing?

3) Her scumread on me imo makes no sense. I'm trying to distance myself from RCE in a post where I unvote him? I don't think she's reading my posts that carefully if she's asking why I'm voting Siv; I made that clear in the same post that I voted him in the first place. These are the only two real points I see; anything else is kinda vague. She says that I seem like someone playing scum really well - but apparently this is just a compliment and not a point at all, so I think this is it, other than that my playstyle is "too perfect" - which just seems nonsensical. What even is a perfect playstyle anyway?
My suggestion as to why she'd do this as scum instead, is that she's being wagoned up and needs something to change. Her partner(s) may be lurky or have given up already. So, seeing herself in a tough spot, she may attempt to push a player she sees as obviously town, and then say this as a defense:

If ausuka does end up getting lynched and she does happen to be town, I'm pretty much getting lynched Day 2. As scum, I would not feel comfortable going after someone whom everyone sees as "so town" - losing a scum day 2 would seriously cripple the scum team. If I were scum, I'd put my vote where the majority of votes are going so as not to draw attention to myself

I think this is a more likely thought process than any town thought process behind her push.

I’m gonna laugh so hard when they lynch your scummy slot slaxx

mmm

I see you've already made up your mind about me, and so everything I say you're using to support your theory, which is fine, but I would encourage you to take those lenses off and actually read the content of my bigger posts

This also doesn't seem like something you say to your top scumread.

4) She seems very postury at points. Specifically:

I’m gonna laugh so hard when they lynch your scummy slot slaxx

This honestly just screams fake to me.

Well, sounds like there’s a consensus. So why haven’t I been lynched yet? Make it happen, guys. I’m not going to vote myself. Wouldn’t everyone rather have actual concrete information with which to work tomorrow?

This isn't as fake as the quote above but I'm a little wary about how she seems to change to and from this mindset so quickly.

5) She says things like "I'm gonna laugh so hard when they lynch your scummy slot slaxx" and Slaxx is the more scumread of me and him I think. She even says at one point there should be a wagon on slaxx - why doesn't she ever try and make one happen?

6) Her mini-push on RCE is weird and doesn't feel like it comes from a town mindset. Like she says that he's likely to be scum because a lot of his posts don't have much content - I think this is a strange way to look at RCE rather than judging him by how much scumhunting he's done overall. She says this is subjective but like I don't really see how it is? Perhaps more importantly, she calls voting Siv an "easy mark" but she also has Siv as her second top scumread - surely she should be understanding where RCE is coming from on this rather than criticizing him for it? Like I don't get the attitude of calling a scumread an easy mislynch.

Can someone who townreads Baezu tell me why? If anyone explained it already I totally missed it but I don't think they have.

if you mean like, posting a lot about certain people and points - the spoiler above is me doing that as town in a different game.

[Ausuka]

i'm literally voting someone who you said you would vote. i've explained why they're scum here. what more do you want?

how is it metadiving if I literally give you the posts in a spoiler. you don't even need to actually read it, just notice that I post big posts as town too.

[Ausuka]

be more specific. what don't you like about it?

[Ausuka]

Tomorrow I will read. I'd like everyone soon to post three scumreads and the lynch order they would have for those scumreads. Why would also help.

Definitely a lot of inertia in this game but we're going to break that. I believe in us townies. I believe we can be the very best, like no one ever was.

Bob -> egix -> skitter

I'm aware this is my wagon but idk who else to sr outside of this. I don't think sash and bob is s/s. Also in a recent mini normal I played the scumteam voted as a block of three twice so... It's possible?

[Ausuka]

kinda. i'm not sure that's the best path to take but i do think they need to be resolved before lylo after everything; idk if there's any way to do that in this game outside of a lynch

at the same time i don't think he's actually flipping scum but i do think the slot is going to be a distraction until it flips

couldn't you say this for literally every wagoned slot ever? you're not even voting sashaddin; when do you plan to do this?

[Ausuka]

If Sash is town then asuka was prime real estate for being scum. He switched his vote for rui in such a way that it felt scum trying to hide his move by saying he was trying to avoid a no lynch. Felt to me like a smart move from scum. He either got his sach lynch if he waited, as it was only clear it wasn't going though shortly before he hopped on to rui.

Added to that i felt he tried to over explain his action and I do feel a slight Omgus in his reaction. To what amounted to an indirect question to him about first him trying to keep a hand in both rui and sach lynch. Secondly his rather early assessment of sashs lynch.


Finally is sach was town and both urp2 and ausuka are town. Then I can't imagine why mafia simply didn't hammer sach.

if i'm scum why do I want to move to ruirui? since in this scenario sasha is town, the wagons on sasha and ruirui would be t/t. what motivation do i have to move to the ruirui wagon here? i wouldn't particularly care if we no lynched.

Bob is saying I'm omgus'ing but this is false; it's clear that I was suspicious of him before he started pushing me based on 968 and 1181.

Mafia may not have hammered Sash when he was at l-1 at the end of today because the alternative lynch was RuiRui, who we now know was a townie. What difference does it make to mafia which townie gets lynched?

[Ausuka]

i still like my ausuka vote i think

Around the time you said:

she's kinda ~null)

just before voting me. You also claimed that you were unsure where scum were. Why are you still saying you "still like" your push on me when you've never given a reason for it and you've even given indication that you didn't like your push yourself?

[Ausuka]

If you want a line-by-line response i can do that, but not till i'm at a pc(much) later today

I think that you're basically using this argument with me as a way to stay engaged with the thread and to look busy - since this argument started this is basically what you've been posting about, and what your content is about.

But despite this, you're not actually doing anything about it - vote me if you think i'm scum, don't spend a week writing walls in my direction and dancing around the read.

(I believe there's scum in exilon/garmr byw)

Also a lot of the things you're calling me out on a personality thing; we have very different definitions of pushing (as i went over already with hrg iirc)

Kinda hard to interact with ausuka more when she hasn't really been posting. And of course i voted ausuka cuz i think she should be pushed, why would you say i voted hef 'not because she's scummy or should be pushed'? And yeah i at least partially switched off of you since it wasn't getting traction. Thjs is scummh because ....

I also don't think it's fair to attribute the stall in the game to me given that i'm easily one of the most active players ffs.

you've made no attempt to interact with me: you simply parked a vote on me. I don't need to be active for you to do that. You just need to post something in the thread and when I'm here I'll respond to it.
Also, you voted me on the 12th of may. I had posted that day, the day before, and the day before that. If you actually wanted to interact with me and sort me that way you could very easily have done so.

[Ausuka]

VOTE: skitter30

i think her recent play has been decently scummy and i don't want to be wagoned to a claim here, so with consideration to how detective pika pika has skitter as a sr and how the wagon seems much more likely to form than if it was on bob. obviously if bob is being wagoned i'll switch back but.

[Ausuka]

Ausuka, scum wants to look townie, not lynch town, on day 1. I'm struggling to buy that town you asks as weak of questions as you do in 1410. "why did scum do the thing?" " to look townie"

Saying why would scum do that almost always is answered by that, and I feel like you know that

i think you're completely misunderstanding what i'm saying. i'm not arguing i'm town for voting ruirui. bob is saying that scum!me would be more likely to do that but the scum motivation isn't really there for that. sure, scum could do that, but so could town, and i don't think it makes sense as a reason for scumreading me.

[Ausuka]

kinda. i'm not sure that's the best path to take but i do think they need to be resolved before lylo after everything; idk if there's any way to do that in this game outside of a lynch

at the same time i don't think he's actually flipping scum but i do think the slot is going to be a distraction until it flips

couldn't you say this for literally every wagoned slot ever? you're not even voting sashaddin; when do you plan to do this?

i could, and have said this about other people in other games. i've never actually voted someone over this tho, so much as kinda mulled the possibility over to myself

i don't get it? you don't want to vote sasha?

do think that leaving him unflipped at this point will be a distraction until he *does* flip irregardless of his alignment given yesterday and how today started

and if he's town i'd rather flip him like today than closer to lylo

i really don't get the vibe from this post especially considering you were responding to inferno proposing a sasha lynch?

[Ausuka]

If you want a line-by-line response i can do that, but not till i'm at a pc(much) later today

I think that you're basically using this argument with me as a way to stay engaged with the thread and to look busy - since this argument started this is basically what you've been posting about, and what your content is about.

But despite this, you're not actually doing anything about it - vote me if you think i'm scum, don't spend a week writing walls in my direction and dancing around the read.

(I believe there's scum in exilon/garmr byw)

Also a lot of the things you're calling me out on a personality thing; we have very different definitions of pushing (as i went over already with hrg iirc)

Kinda hard to interact with ausuka more when she hasn't really been posting. And of course i voted ausuka cuz i think she should be pushed, why would you say i voted hef 'not because she's scummy or should be pushed'? And yeah i at least partially switched off of you since it wasn't getting traction. Thjs is scummh because ....

I also don't think it's fair to attribute the stall in the game to me given that i'm easily one of the most active players ffs.

you've made no attempt to interact with me: you simply parked a vote on me. I don't need to be active for you to do that. You just need to post something in the thread and when I'm here I'll respond to it.
Also, you voted me on the 12th of may. I had posted that day, the day before, and the day before that. If you actually wanted to interact with me and sort me that way you could very easily have done so.

ok fair enough.
hi ausuka, i feel like you've been skating by this game for quite a while, and id ont' have a good sense of your read or for what you're thinking this game.
i think your stated scumreads lining up exactly with the people on your wagon is quite awful

where do you get that impression? i made a bob push recently, which sure was very likely wrong, but i definitely wouldn't call it skating by?

what i'm thinking for this game is
{aus, detective pika pika} obv
{garmr, bob} i don't really see why scum pulls off this fakeclaim here; garmr wasn't under that much pressure.
{urap, exilon} seem genuinely scumhunty
{gamma, inferno} feel kind of town and i don't have any points against either

this leaves {sasha, skitter, egix}; i was tr'ing sasha based on bob's push who i was scumreading more but that's clearly wrong so ? unless urap or exilon is scum, there is exactly 0 scum on the initial sasha wagon fmpov which is pretty damning for him. egix i didn't really townread him and i thought his push on me was weird (you posted three times since 1191 but now i'm gaining popularity you bring it up?) for you i've brought up a few points and for someone who isn't scumreading anyone and is pushing a nullread you seem to be really insistent on trying to lynch said nullread.

i mean i see why that looks bad. but i was townreading a lot of players who are not those three on my wagon and not you three, so you three were kind of suspect anyway, and for you and egix it was the way you pushed me that seemed suspect, so there's a reason for it.

[Ausuka]

is it mechanically correct for me to ask that no protectives be on me tonight? I do think IC death + weak death --> guilty is better than IC alive + weak death + lots of wifom on weak result

I'm not sure this is correct but the thought occurs to me that theoretically the protective should be on garmr?

garmr protects himself with his role i'm pretty sure so being on you is still the best move.

[Ausuka]

i actually didn't go back to check
but if he made it up he's been working on it since at least n1 and ... weak hider is a pretty ~brazen~ thing to make up as scum? he'd have to provide an inno every night or explain why he isn't dead yet and that makes a really really realy difficult gamstate for scum i think

^

[Ausuka]

Garmr is not afraid to fakeclaim:
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=77764&start=850
Keeping my vanity vote on him for now.

Ok but isn't a motion detector claim much much less high risk than a hider claim? As a real motion detector, he could provide results with zero-risk, and he didn't have to clear anybody.

[Ausuka]

I finished reading Ausuka. Overall, it feels genuine and townie, and genuinely lost Day 2, whereas Day 1 there's a bigger effort in analysis; and there's a reduced number of things that ping me the wrong way. The few that do, however, do so strongly, and pose a few questions.

Ok:

I don't think the Ruirui jump Day 1 is indicative of anything really.

To me,

the strongest argument for Ausuka being scum

is that she quickly distanced herself from scumhunting / pushing actually "strong" slots (I'm talking about the vote on skitter early day 1 that was followed by a shift to Sash) and seems to be confortable being indecisive between what are arguable lynch baits like Sash and Bob. There's some evidence I find compelling for this narrative (in Day 2), mentioned below.

Her vote and push Day 1 on Sash is pretty reasonable to me and 292 is an interesting VCA with a lot of theorycrafting which isn't all terribly valuable without much follow up from Ausuka in the future and I find it strange that there wasn't a similar effort made for RuiRui's wagon which in hindsight makes me feel this was mostly made for show.

There's another thing that jumped at me while reading her ISO and that is a very distinct silence in regards to any type of read on Egix. By this I mean that you can find Egix being mentioned a bit, and interacted with, and at one point paired up with "possible scum teams" (see 292 above) and yet Ausuka never once takes this lead and tries to go further with it, and this dissonance is especially prevalent in 1180.

Context: in 1305 Egix appears as "would lynch" right after Bob and even Skitter. At this point Egix hasn't said much in terms of interaction or been pushed outisde my own case on him.

And yet, 1180 says "exi feels town". Ok, so I'm town and I'm voting for a guy that you probably want to sort and never had any particular townread for, and you're not taking the chance to wagon him, why? There's no townie reason to not do so, unless he just shows in 1305 as a scapegoat and fabrication.

This post is relevant to me for another reason, and that is that it doesn't seem coherent with the way Ausuka judged Bob's case and reasoning. The way she jumps on him, when he seems to be clearly misunderstanding, isn't toally in line to the type of benefit of doubt she appears to give me. This is obviously a stretch to me, but mostly this is the type of thing that I feel Ausuka has been latching on in order to justify a vote.

Sash Day 1, Sash early Day 2 with the whole "Garmr isn't dead therefore scum" thing, Bob's rundown case, to me it feels as Scum!Ausuka almost being relieved that there's something she can argue on and vote people for, whereas town Ausuka would have probably been looking elsewhere and acting on some of her gut feelins, say Egix and even Skitter.

On the other hand, there's a level of incoherence here stemming from Ausuka realizing that Bob being scum probably means that Sash isn't, and that her whole day 1 crumbles to dust. I feel scum would be paying attention to this and probably would have highlighted it sooner but I'm also open to interpretations of this.


Ausuka, a few questions:
a) Why din't you wagon Egix when you read my case on him?
b) what's your *actual* read on Egix? Why?
c) Who are currently your strongest townreads, and why?

a) - because I was voting Sashaddin, who in my eyes was scum and had a huge wagon. your argument seems to be that i would jump at the chance to wagon a nullread when my actual scumread was at l-2 and looked fairly likely to get lynched - i wouldn't.
b) my read on egix was null at the time you made your case. it switched to scumlean later for reasons in 1598.
c) pika, bob and garmr mechanically, urap and you readswise.

[Ausuka]

I am totally disgusted by the way Gamr has done that claim. Now I get shot at night and both he AND I die.
We need a protective on me tonight. If there is not a protective tonight...
Sorry town that Gamr thinks he’s so much better than everyone else in game that he thinks he needs to target a general townread.

But I kind of have to believe the claim here, because it’s what makes since given the “I’ll have evidence later” BS he was giving at the start of the day.
And if Bob is clear, that leaves Exil, UR2, skitter, Ausuka, Gamma, Sash, Egix?
I think we lynch in Egix, UR2, Sash today.

No, this is false. If a weak hider hides behind somebody, even if that person dies, they will live, as they targeted town.

[Ausuka]

Now my question to you is if you are infact town. Who on teh rui lynch do you think is the most likely to be scum and if there is infact one scum in the grouping your in. If you are in fact town out of urp2 and sach do you feel its most likely to be?

if there's scum in there it is very likely sashaddin. i've seen all town mislynches in mini normals d1 before so i don't see any particular reason to say scum has to be on that wagon; sasha/egix are both on it though so, I guess them?

[Ausuka]

Is there a point to this? It seems to give opposing conclusions about things.

there is - maybe try looking closer?

[Ausuka]

VOTE: sasha

if bob's town i want this again.

[Ausuka]

I finished reading Ausuka. Overall, it feels genuine and townie, and genuinely lost Day 2, whereas Day 1 there's a bigger effort in analysis; and there's a reduced number of things that ping me the wrong way. The few that do, however, do so strongly, and pose a few questions.

Ok:

I don't think the Ruirui jump Day 1 is indicative of anything really.

To me,

the strongest argument for Ausuka being scum

is that she quickly distanced herself from scumhunting / pushing actually "strong" slots (I'm talking about the vote on skitter early day 1 that was followed by a shift to Sash) and seems to be confortable being indecisive between what are arguable lynch baits like Sash and Bob. There's some evidence I find compelling for this narrative (in Day 2), mentioned below.

Her vote and push Day 1 on Sash is pretty reasonable to me and 292 is an interesting VCA with a lot of theorycrafting which isn't all terribly valuable without much follow up from Ausuka in the future and I find it strange that there wasn't a similar effort made for RuiRui's wagon which in hindsight makes me feel this was mostly made for show.

There's another thing that jumped at me while reading her ISO and that is a very distinct silence in regards to any type of read on Egix. By this I mean that you can find Egix being mentioned a bit, and interacted with, and at one point paired up with "possible scum teams" (see 292 above) and yet Ausuka never once takes this lead and tries to go further with it, and this dissonance is especially prevalent in 1180.

Context: in 1305 Egix appears as "would lynch" right after Bob and even Skitter. At this point Egix hasn't said much in terms of interaction or been pushed outisde my own case on him.

And yet, 1180 says "exi feels town". Ok, so I'm town and I'm voting for a guy that you probably want to sort and never had any particular townread for, and you're not taking the chance to wagon him, why? There's no townie reason to not do so, unless he just shows in 1305 as a scapegoat and fabrication.

This post is relevant to me for another reason, and that is that it doesn't seem coherent with the way Ausuka judged Bob's case and reasoning. The way she jumps on him, when he seems to be clearly misunderstanding, isn't toally in line to the type of benefit of doubt she appears to give me. This is obviously a stretch to me, but mostly this is the type of thing that I feel Ausuka has been latching on in order to justify a vote.

Sash Day 1, Sash early Day 2 with the whole "Garmr isn't dead therefore scum" thing, Bob's rundown case, to me it feels as Scum!Ausuka almost being relieved that there's something she can argue on and vote people for, whereas town Ausuka would have probably been looking elsewhere and acting on some of her gut feelins, say Egix and even Skitter.

On the other hand, there's a level of incoherence here stemming from Ausuka realizing that Bob being scum probably means that Sash isn't, and that her whole day 1 crumbles to dust. I feel scum would be paying attention to this and probably would have highlighted it sooner but I'm also open to interpretations of this.


Ausuka, a few questions:
a) Why din't you wagon Egix when you read my case on him?
b) what's your *actual* read on Egix? Why?
c) Who are currently your strongest townreads, and why?

a) - because I was voting Sashaddin, who in my eyes was scum and had a huge wagon. your argument seems to be that i would jump at the chance to wagon a nullread when my actual scumread was at l-2 and looked fairly likely to get lynched - i wouldn't.
b) my read on egix was null at the time you made your case. it switched to scumlean later for reasons in 1598.
c) pika, bob and garmr mechanically, urap and you readswise.

wait wait wait wait what hold up this isn't

a) This vibes me the wrong way; you're saying you'd rather let your vote stay on a wagon that may end the day early (on someone who's already claimed!) instead of using it push on other people? When does town benefit from this? Yes, Sash was at L2? So???????????? Doesn't scum have buddies????? If anything this makes you look WORSE!
b) So you you thought my case came from townie, TR me for it, but didn't agree with it cause Egix was still null, but it changed when he voted for you with what was a reasonable justification. So you're telling us that the timing of his vote vibing you wrong > all other reasons I outlined in my case. No, this narrative isn't making sense in my head.

Town benefits from it when they want to lynch scum. The day ending quickly doesn't really mean anything to me; if that happens, and we lynch red, and no PRs are outed, I'm in favour of it. Scum has buddies: I don't need to wagon nullreads to scumhunt though and I don't think doing so would improve my reads particularly. Sasha at l2 means he has momentum and taking away my vote would make him l3, which I think is much less attractive for voters.

I wasn't particularly convinced by your case especially considering you said beforehand that you were looking for reasons to sr egix so yes.

[Ausuka]

Tbh the "it seems more correct to lynch sasha as claimed vt" is some of the scummy logic that made me want to lynch skitter in the first place and the dude looks like mislynchbait to me so I kinda don't care whether his wagon has momentum or not, ausuka jumping on the leading wagon doesn't make me feel any better about it either. I think there is scum in either ausuka and skitter and both are pretty ok with sasha going down.

I think in my mind I've actually already flipped garmr as scum actually and I kinda want to lynch ausuka just for putting him as a tier 2 read.

Idk I guess I need to actually start doing stuff

VOTE: ausuka

don't you think it makes sense for me as town to go back to sring sasha when bob is probtown?

[Ausuka]

I am totally disgusted by the way Gamr has done that claim. Now I get shot at night and both he AND I die.
We need a protective on me tonight. If there is not a protective tonight...
Sorry town that Gamr thinks he’s so much better than everyone else in game that he thinks he needs to target a general townread.

But I kind of have to believe the claim here, because it’s what makes since given the “I’ll have evidence later” BS he was giving at the start of the day.
And if Bob is clear, that leaves Exil, UR2, skitter, Ausuka, Gamma, Sash, Egix?
I think we lynch in Egix, UR2, Sash today.

No, this is false. If a weak hider hides behind somebody, even if that person dies, they will live, as they targeted town.

Wrong

target a player. You will be protected from kills, but if that player dies, you will also die. This version is essentially the inverse of babysitter, and is what will be considered the normal version of hider. if you want the most common variant of hider, use a weak hider. The variant which causes the hider to be targeted by all abilities that target the person they hide behind, and other variants, are not normal.

That is from the Normal Guidelines Changes thread where all new whitelist rules get announced.

Yeah but the weak modifier makes it so that he will always live while targeting town and die when targeting scum.

[Ausuka]

In a normal hider, sure, but weak modifies it so that since they targeted town, they live.

Let me have this Gamma.

[Ausuka]

why are garmr/bob scum? neither were particularly in danger of being lynched iirc.

Pedit: I'm not wrong in what I'm doing.

[Ausuka]

Yeah I'll just come out and say pika is right, I was trying to get scum to not kill Inferno. Idk why you had to point that out :/

[Ausuka]

we have less than a day left; should i claim? i think i'm probably the most likely lynch here.

[Ausuka]

I think we lynch Ausuka here actually for trying to argue the proc off of me. I don’t see a reason to do it as Town and a LOT of reason to do it as scum.

What I was thinking here was, as the protective you have 2 goals here:
1) protect the ic
2) prevent a double kill

option 2 seems a lot more urgent as it could lead to mylo if we mislynch today; however both deaths are garmr and inferno, who have been under suspicion. additionally, if

either

garmr or inferno is scum, this is a waste of a target which could lead to our IC dying. i think both options are close in priority, so my attempted solution was to create a situation where there was at least some chance that scum wouldn't realize that i was wrong/lying, thus at least giving some chance that both situations are solved; the protective can go on the ic and if garmr/inferno are t/t there's still some chance scum will choose not to go for the double kill.

[Ausuka]

sorry urap but your time is up. we lynch you d3.

[Ausuka]

Ausuka
That’s a terrible line of thought
And since when have I been “under suspicion?”

ok.

you're not really scumread iirc but not the most townread and at least garmr is suspicious enough of you to investigate you tonight. later in the game you could be a bigger suspect if it's not smth more obvious.

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Garmr

I think the chances of garmr scum feeling forced to kill inferno are higher than the chances of garmr being town because I can't see a narrative where garmr as town would just fakeclaim weak hider?

[Ausuka]

I'm an odd night neapolitan. On n1 I got hrg as vt.

I thought with weak hider, that this setup had a theme of 3 clearing prs and maybe a scum one. But with 3 conf from gamestart my role seems really weird.

Bob, if this is a lie please say so.

@skitter: the urap line was just a joke.

[Ausuka]

I don't know!

[Ausuka]

If people.thought I was protective why was I almost lynched?

[Ausuka]

The first was a tpr soft yes. Second was not.

I agree with you and that's why I'm not really for the mason claim.

I'm prob still alive because scum thought (probably correctly tbh) that I could be lynched through my claim.

[Ausuka]

Why would I die n2? I thought the chances were literally 0, even before claims.

[Ausuka]

I'm just a child please don't kill me

[Ausuka]

If you want a line-by-line response i can do that, but not till i'm at a pc(much) later today

I think that you're basically using this argument with me as a way to stay engaged with the thread and to look busy - since this argument started this is basically what you've been posting about, and what your content is about.

But despite this, you're not actually doing anything about it - vote me if you think i'm scum, don't spend a week writing walls in my direction and dancing around the read.

(I believe there's scum in exilon/garmr byw)

Also a lot of the things you're calling me out on a personality thing; we have very different definitions of pushing (as i went over already with hrg iirc)

Kinda hard to interact with ausuka more when she hasn't really been posting. And of course i voted ausuka cuz i think she should be pushed, why would you say i voted hef 'not because she's scummy or should be pushed'? And yeah i at least partially switched off of you since it wasn't getting traction. Thjs is scummh because ....

I also don't think it's fair to attribute the stall in the game to me given that i'm easily one of the most active players ffs.

you've made no attempt to interact with me: you simply parked a vote on me. I don't need to be active for you to do that. You just need to post something in the thread and when I'm here I'll respond to it.
Also, you voted me on the 12th of may. I had posted that day, the day before, and the day before that. If you actually wanted to interact with me and sort me that way you could very easily have done so.

ok fair enough.
hi ausuka, i feel like you've been skating by this game for quite a while, and id ont' have a good sense of your read or for what you're thinking this game.
i think your stated scumreads lining up exactly with the people on your wagon is quite awful

where do you get that impression? i made a bob push recently, which sure was very likely wrong, but i definitely wouldn't call it skating by?

what i'm thinking for this game is
{aus, detective pika pika} obv
{garmr, bob} i don't really see why scum pulls off this fakeclaim here; garmr wasn't under that much pressure.
{urap, exilon} seem genuinely scumhunty

{gamma, inferno} feel kind of town and i don't have any points against either

this leaves {sasha, skitter, egix}; i was tr'ing sasha based on bob's push who i was scumreading more but that's clearly wrong so ? unless urap or exilon is scum, there is exactly 0 scum on the initial sasha wagon fmpov which is pretty damning for him. egix i didn't really townread him and i thought his push on me was weird (you posted three times since 1191 but now i'm gaining popularity you bring it up?) for you i've brought up a few points and for someone who isn't scumreading anyone and is pushing a nullread you seem to be really insistent on trying to lynch said nullread.

i mean i see why that looks bad. but i was townreading a lot of players who are not those three on my wagon and not you three, so you three were kind of suspect anyway, and for you and egix it was the way you pushed me that seemed suspect, so there's a reason for it.

That's not something you say about someone you know is a VT.
Yep, looks like we've got ourselves a faker.

If I listed gamma as a strong tr someone would have caught it and asked me why and I would've been unable to give a response.

[Ausuka]

And I haven't had an opportunity yet to look back through the game really. My first post was at like half eleven when I was really tired and the rest have been on mobile.

Unsure what to make of skitter's claim. Why did you target me? If you got a guilty it didn't matter coz you were gonna lynch me anyway.

[Ausuka]

And I haven't had an opportunity yet to look back through the game really. My first post was at like half eleven when I was really tired and the rest have been on mobile.

Unsure what to make of skitter's claim. Why did you target me? If you got a guilty it didn't matter coz you were gonna lynch me anyway.

Targeted u cuz i thought u wre scum. If u notice, i didnt actually vote you until *after* the claim - i wasn't sure where to vote at daystart or if i wanted to push u or not

Also i guess now the scum who does the nk will be chosen arounnd my reads; i was trying to figure out who did the nks n1 and n2 but didnt really feel like one person was substantially more likely to perform the kill than other people

Fair enough I guess.

[Ausuka]

Why would I die n2? I thought the chances were literally 0, even before claims.

You could have been lynched?

If I was going to be lynched I would have claimed?

[Ausuka]

Like I don't really want scum figuring out I have an inno on Gamma. I thought that could get me killed before I started getting pushed, afterwards I thought it could get gamma killed and after hider shenanigans I knew both of us would probably survive but I didn't want them to have the information that Gamma was gonna be clear, if that makes sense. And unless scum figured out my role I thought they would literally never kill me n2. That's why I didn't soft my Gamma inno.

[Ausuka]

UNVOTE:

I think that the mason PT comments above make it very clear that the masonry is real; upon urap's enquiry Garmr is instantly able to provide direct quotes in bob's style from the mason PT. In order for Garmr and bob to be scum here they'd need to have faked mason conversations in the scum PT throughout the game. And while I suppose that's

possible

it seems very unlikely for them to timesink like that for a mason claim they don't even always get to do, and while I've seen scum consider claiming mason and have even considered doing so I've never seen anyone literally fake false conversations in their scum PT. So it's very unlikely Garmr/bob are scum here.

Urap seems obvtown here and although skitter would be my ideal vote because I don't think the setup makes sense with us as t/t, I think people wouldn't want to lynch skitter over me so I'd rather go for Egix. I think that his jump on me at daystart was opportunistic - although town was obv voting me they were at least willing to act questions and consider I was town I think (det pika) whereas Egix decides I'm scum just because I didn't soft my inno, and doesn't even think about the possibility that the risk of softing an inno and possibly getting caught was larger than the practically non-existent reward of getting my result out upon getting killed - I mean who kills me n2?

Besides if egix is town who's scum? Pika, Garmr, bob, gamma, me are all out. That means only one town exists inside {skitter, egix, exi, urap} and I'm much more inclined to think that's urap, who has made me much less likely to be lynched today, while the other three have all been thirsty for my blood.

VOTE: Egix96

[Ausuka]

lol

[Ausuka]

So basically you're townreading people based on the fact they're townreading you

okay

^ This shows that exilon is scum who's just trying to get me dead because if he lynches me instead of Egix today he gets to LyLo. Remember that Egix is my scumbuddy in his eyes, yet he seems so desperate to lynch me today. It should be pretty clear that, in any world where I am town, scum want to lynch me today - my wagon got to l1 very quickly, and three of the players who got me there are scum suspects. It makes sense to see the one who instead helped derail it and is now pushing very likely scum, as the odd-one-out who is pushing a town agenda today.

You think you live in a gamestate, with that day 2, where skitter, egix, and me are all scum?

Yes. There was very limited interest in lynching either you or skitter so it's easy to see the advantage of distancing/bussing (you can pull this against anyone who thinks that the two of you are buddies and the risk of a lynch is pretty minimal.) Egix is a little harder to get around, and I'll admit there was a time I thought you and egix were literally never s/s. However, I think the move does actually make some sense. Egix, even on early d2 when he wasn't under that much suspicion, is unlikely to make it to endgame. However, if you bus him, and Egix flips red, that basically gives you a free pass to win, or even vice versa, because you can pull the exact card that you just did! So, I do think it makes sense for scum to do.

[Ausuka]

UNVOTE:

I think that the mason PT comments above make it very clear that the masonry is real; upon urap's enquiry Garmr is instantly able to provide direct quotes in bob's style from the mason PT. In order for Garmr and bob to be scum here they'd need to have faked mason conversations in the scum PT throughout the game. And while I suppose that's

possible

it seems very unlikely for them to timesink like that for a mason claim they don't even always get to do, and while I've seen scum consider claiming mason and have even considered doing so I've never seen anyone literally fake false conversations in their scum PT. So it's very unlikely Garmr/bob are scum here.

Urap seems obvtown here and although skitter would be my ideal vote because I don't think the setup makes sense with us as t/t, I think people wouldn't want to lynch skitter over me so I'd rather go for Egix. I think that his jump on me at daystart was opportunistic - although town was obv voting me they were at least willing to act questions and consider I was town I think (det pika) whereas Egix decides I'm scum just because I didn't soft my inno, and doesn't even think about the possibility that the risk of softing an inno and possibly getting caught was larger than the practically non-existent reward of getting my result out upon getting killed - I mean who kills me n2?

Besides if egix is town who's scum? Pika, Garmr, bob, gamma, me are all out. That means only one town exists inside {skitter, egix, exi, urap} and I'm much more inclined to think that's urap, who has made me much less likely to be lynched today, while the other three have all been thirsty for my blood.

VOTE: Egix96

The thing is though that I don't really see what motivation scum!skitter would have for counterclaiming you, considering that:

- Her claimed role is not the same as yours; it's not a direct counterclaim

- It's not MyLo/LyLo yet so scum!skitter can't yet win the game by winning a claim duel with you.

Not only that, but I find it implausible for there to be that many potential clears at this stage (IC + 2 Masons + Town Neapol + VT checked by Neapol) as that's far too townsided imo. (Scum achieving two mislynches but getting borked out of a win because they missed the PRs... doesn't seem like good balance philosophy at all to me.)

Her role not counterclaiming me does NOT in any way make her townier. In fact I think that it makes her scummier! At the time of this claim the masons were under a lot of doubt - I think that it's reasonable to say that, after the lynch on me went through, skitter could go after the claims in Mylo. Although ic + even night detective is not enough town power I think that, if she claimed full detective (quite easy to justify, "I investigated cdb n1 so i said i was even-night, that way scum wouldn't kill me n3 after we lynched scum aus") and maybe got a scumbuddy to claim tpr (although we massclaimed and they went with VT, I do think it's possible that either skitter missed this or thought exilon was towny enough that he could get away with retracting a vt claim; i have actually seen town do something like that once.)

I definitely don't get the second point; didn't we just establish that it wasn't a direct counterclaim at that time and that this isn't really a 1v1 skittervausuka situation?

As for the third ic + 2 masons + town odd-night neapol isn't necessarily unbalanced although it is oddly swingy. the odd night neap is probably going to come under suspicion, so really you have 4 clears (ic + 2 masons + neap's inno). I think the idea behind this setup is that scum is supposed to have found ic/masons/neap by now or claims are supposed to have done that for them. This is quite an edge case in that scum hit CDB, a vt, for whatever reason n1, and garmr successfully got them to target Inferno, another unclear vt, n2, leaving a lot of clears for us to work with.

So basically you're townreading people based on the fact they're townreading you

okay

^ This shows that exilon is scum who's just trying to get me dead because if he lynches me instead of Egix today he gets to LyLo. Remember that Egix is my scumbuddy in his eyes, yet he seems so desperate to lynch me today. It should be pretty clear that, in any world where I am town, scum want to lynch me today - my wagon got to l1 very quickly, and three of the players who got me there are scum suspects. It makes sense to see the one who instead helped derail it and is now pushing very likely scum, as the odd-one-out who is pushing a town agenda today.

This is strawmanning 101
And even your strawman is wrong from every angle

1780 is me signalling Egix / Ausuka are scum, it should therefore stand to reason i dont really care who goes first
1784 is me saying I wanna look freshly at urap and Gamma
1875 is me saying I'll happily lynch Egix today
1876 is me considering lynching Garmr as well as an option for today
1899 is me saying I don't want to end the day without Gamma speaking up

Like where the heck are you getting me being desperate to lynch you today? If anyone, you're the one coming across as desperate here and projecting it

It's not a strawman. You come into the day calling my garmr push 'convenient', even though it makes perfect sense for a townie to be suspicious of a fakeclaim (which is ironic since you've stated some willingness to lynch him since.) which is demonstrated by Detective's vote on garmr. Even though the day just started, you say that I'm 'not scumhunting' despite the fact that I came into the day voting somebody who I thought was scum who I townread before. And then you make the shot in 1901 saying that I shouldn't think that the people voting me are the scumteam; which seems like a really reasonable thing to think considering that I'm almost certainly scum's easiest mislynch here and scum HUGELY benefits from lynching the neapolitan who gets an investigation tomorrow night, today, not to mention 3 out of the 4 wagoners are inside the unconfirmed pool of 4 people. All the while, you've kept your vote on me, along with Egix who is a scumread of yours. So I think it was a reasonable assertion to make that you would like to lynch me today.
You did say that in 1780, yes - but it seems to me that you've been much more keen to lynch me today.
1784- that doesn't really mean anything to me.
I didn't interpret 1875 as you being willing to vote Egix. If it really was that, you should vote him. 1876 I don't really care about because if you're scum it stands to reason that you'd be willing to switch to town!garmr, because that would be an excellent chain of events for you - if we lynch Garmr today, then you can lynch me tomorrow or after Egix and win the game.

Unless I'm forgetting something Egix had one vote when you posted 1899; if he was at l1 that would make sense but as it is I don't get how that applies as a reason to not vote egix.

You think you live in a gamestate, with that day 2, where skitter, egix, and me are all scum?

Yes. There was very limited interest in lynching either you or skitter so it's easy to see the advantage of distancing/bussing (you can pull this against anyone who thinks that the two of you are buddies and the risk of a lynch is pretty minimal.) Egix is a little harder to get around, and I'll admit there was a time I thought you and egix were literally never s/s. However, I think the move does actually make some sense.

Egix, even on early d2 when he wasn't under that much suspicion, is unlikely to make it to endgame.

However, if you bus him, and Egix flips red, that basically gives you a free pass to win, or even vice versa, because you can pull the exact card that you just did! So, I do think it makes sense for scum to do.

About Skitter - you just recycled Garmr's theory here and completely disregarded what was said about it later, and failed to incorporate it here.

About Egix - your wording here seems very peculiar - why was Scum!Egix unlikely to make it to endgame? How do *you* know this?

I don't think my theory is exactly the same as garmr's; in particular I never got the impression d2 that skitter was going to be lynched anytime soon; at maximum it was just me and Garmr voting for her. When she started arguing against you, it was only HRG voting for her.
If you posted anything that you think disproves you and skitter as s/s please point me at it; I don't remember, and I even checked just now and don't see anything along those lines that I need to address.

The egix line is super stretchy. Egix doesn't make it to endgame because he's compromise bait. I'm pretty sure that nobody was really townreading that slot, and it seems very likely that at some point he would get lynched. For example, Egix is a strong lynch candidate right now, and I very strongly believe that he would still be so if it weren't for that case. What on earth are you trying to imply here? Egix is a suicidal goon and that's why he can't make it to endgame?

[Ausuka]

That doesn't account for the possibility that you are lynched. I know that the pool contains four. Let me find the truth tonight and you can lynch me d4. If we lynch scum Egix today that's auto.

Det, garmr, bob and gamma replacement you four at least should listen, they can't get the lynch without you.

[Ausuka]

That doesn't account for the possibility that you are lynched. I know that the pool contains four. Let me find the truth tonight and you can lynch me d4. If we lynch scum Egix today that's auto.

Det, garmr, bob and gamma replacement you four at least should listen, they can't get the lynch without you.

the bottom half of my large wall is from our IC's perspective, and does take into account lynching me.

i don't understand how your wall reaches the conclusion I'm a good lynch. Like, it says I'm most likely by raw probability, but I think there are better ways of finding scum than assigning all scumteams equal value, and besides, no town composition loses anything by lynching me d4 instead of d3.

[Ausuka]

i don't understand how your wall reaches the conclusion I'm a good lynch. Like, it says I'm most likely by raw probability, but I think there are better ways of finding scum than assigning all scumteams equal value, and besides, no town composition loses anything by lynching me d4 instead of d3.

The crux of it is, in a world where i'm NOT conf!town (all town!pov's but mine),

yours is the highest % lynch that makes another slot conf!scum if you flip town.

But if you don't lynch me I could confirm the entire team???

[Ausuka]

5x vt
1x on nea
1x en det
2x masons
1x ic

1x goon
1x rolecop
1x roleblocker

Is that setup (or something else along the lines of stacked scum) balanced?

Pedit: 5p lylo isn't good. In 5p lylo you have exi, urap and egix and have to find the town. Compare this to outright winning the game.
If you lynch me d4 I confscum 3 slots instead of just one. What do we gain by lynching me today instead of d4 again?

Pedit: if we mislynch today we also lose 5p lylo so...

[Ausuka]

That doesn't account for the possibility that you are lynched. I know that the pool contains four. Let me find the truth tonight and you can lynch me d4. If we lynch scum Egix today that's auto.

Det, garmr, bob and gamma replacement you four at least should listen, they can't get the lynch without you.

uhhhh did gamma get replaced?

ausuka how did you know that gamma was replacing?

he siteflaked across all games a few days ago

[Ausuka]

sorry, I'm waiting to hear back if my role would be returned as VT or not before I guilty Ausuka

I'm an informed townie, I know that there are two other town roles in the game with modifiers and one scum role with modifiers. Informed is technically a modifier so idk if i'd return VT or not to ausuka ??

Yeah I don't think a modifier counts as non vanilla since the role is still vanilla.

[Ausuka]

Lol I was a VT fakeclaiming all along \o/

[Ausuka]

I'm actually ascetic so there's the second modifier. This should make me confirmed town.

[Ausuka]

Zzz skygazer you literally have an innocent on me. How could you be this tunneled.

[Ausuka]

I'm actually ascetic so there's the second modifier. This should make me confirmed town.

did you crumb this anywhere?

My username starts with a. So does ascetic.

[Ausuka]

there's probably a gated doctor that fakeclaimed VT and ausuka is just trying to bait it out at this point

Yeah probably.

[Ausuka]

I'm actually ascetic so there's the second modifier. This should make me confirmed town.

did you crumb this anywhere?

also, why did you decide to give a false inno on sky's slot?

Random.org.

[Ausuka]

nah i can only be scum if skygazer is also scum

the only players claiming modifiers are me and skitter who therefore must both be town if skygazer is town therefore if skygazer is town we have to be town too

[Ausuka]

urap is scum btw

[Ausuka]

Am I an object now? How rude.

[Ausuka]

[Ausuka]

i was trying to joke about that sorry if it came across as serious.

who wants to guess what my flip will be??

[Ausuka]

ouch I wasn't

that

bad right?

[Ausuka]

i'm just a goon lol

[Ausuka]

gg, thanks for modding tris.

[Ausuka]

no objections from me, either.

@nsg: yeah I meant based on who rolled the bp ic. sorry if that's supposed to be a different term; i'm not aware of any such word.